能源化工日报 2025-11-20 2025/11/20 原油 能源化工组 INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.20 元/桶，涨幅 0.48%，报 464.50 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 26.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.01%，报 2560.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 7.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.21%，报 3266.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 1.11 百万桶至 6.31 百万桶，环比去库 14.96%； 柴油库存累库 0.02 百万桶至 2.85 百万桶，环比累库 0.56%；燃料油库存去库 0.25 百万桶至 10.65 百万桶，环比去库 2.33%；总成品油去库 1.35 百万桶至 19.81 百万桶，环比去库 6.37%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 甲醇 2025/11/20 甲醇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No related content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - supporting willingness [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with high coal prices squeezing profit margins, corporate production has slightly declined. Demand is weak, so prices may fall further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and low domestic prices. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, a short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with high supply and weak demand. Export expectations are weakening, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on price rallies in the medium term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, although the price may have bottomed out, high warehouse receipt volumes suppress the market. With seasonal demand picking up, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [21]. - For polypropylene, there is high supply pressure and weak demand. High inventory levels persist, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand. There may be opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [25]. - For PTA, supply is increasing, and demand is facing challenges. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply is high, imports are rising, and inventories are building up. It's recommended to short - sell on price rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.00 yuan/barrel, a 0.43% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 42.00 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline, to 2558.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase, to 3247.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The Taicang price was down 10, Lunan was down 5, and Inner Mongolia was up 7.5. The 01 contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan, at 2030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 28. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, at - 123 [2]. Urea - **Market Data**: Shandong's spot price was up 10, Henan was up 10, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market was unchanged at 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 62. The 1 - 5 spread was up 1, at - 74 [5]. Rubber - **Market Data**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. The expiration of November warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Exchange led to positive market expectations. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, down 0.84 percentage points from the previous week but up 5.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. New export orders were not expected to be high. As of November 9, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.63 tons, up 0.03 tons, a 0.03% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons [9]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract fell 81 yuan to 4520 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 319 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, down 2.2%; the calcium - carbide method was 80.8%, down 0.4%; the ethylene method was 73.3%, down 6.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, down 0.1%. Factory inventories were 32.2 tons, down 1.2 tons, and social inventories were 102.8 tons, down 1.3 tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5467 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6465 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton, with a basis of 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 110.75 yuan/ton, up 10.13 yuan/ton. The profit of the non - integrated styrene plant was - 471.8 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 2.65 tons to 14.83 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, up 0.21%. The PS operating rate was 55.40%, up 1.90%; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, down 2.32%; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, up 0.20% [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 115 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.24%, down 0.10%. Production enterprise inventories were 52.92 tons, up 3.90 tons, and trader inventories were 5.00 tons, down 0.01 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.49%, down 0.36%. The 1 - 5 spread of LLDPE was - 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6392 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.59%, up 0.33%. Production enterprise inventories were 62 tons, up 2.01 tons, trader inventories were 21.73 tons, down 1.13 tons, and port inventories were 6.69 tons, up 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.28%, up 0.14%. The LLDPE - PP spread was 393 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [22][23]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract fell 28 yuan to 6768 yuan. The PX CFR price fell 4 dollars to 827 dollars. The basis was - 14 yuan, down 1 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan, up 10 yuan. China's PX operating rate was 86.8%, down 3%; Asian operating rate was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some plants had maintenance or planned to reduce production. PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. In early November, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China, an increase of 1.8 tons year - on - year. At the end of September, inventories were 402.6 tons, up 10.8 tons month - on - month. PXN was 260 dollars, up 5 dollars; South Korea's PX - MX was 100 dollars, up 1 dollar; the naphtha crack spread was 102 dollars, down 4 dollars [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract fell 22 yuan to 4670 yuan. The East China spot price was down 5 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan. The basis was - 72 yuan, up 1 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 yuan, up 8 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. Some plants had maintenance or increased production. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. As of November 7, social inventories (excluding credit warehouse receipts) were 222.7 tons, up 2 tons. The spot processing fee was up 15 yuan to 180 yuan, and the futures processing fee was down 4 yuan to 230 yuan [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract fell 31 yuan to 3907 yuan. The East China spot price was down 28 yuan to 3952 yuan. The basis was 30 yuan, down 12 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan, down 5 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 71.6%, down 0.9%. Some plants had production adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. The expected import volume was 11.1 tons, and the export volume from East China on November 17 was 0.4 tons. Port inventories were 73.2 tons, up 7.1 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 785 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of steam coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention through a decline in exports when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, high port inventories are suppressing prices. Overseas production remains high, and the supply pressure persists while demand is weak. It's expected that inventories will be hard to reduce in the short term, and prices may decline further. Given the current significant and rapid drop, it's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large internal - external price differences and low domestic prices. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the market atmosphere, and inventories are being reduced. It's expected that the downside space is limited, and the market will mainly bottom out through oscillations [9]. - For natural rubber, a short - term long - bias trading strategy is recommended, and a partial position can be established for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamental situation is poor. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are turning negative. There is a continuous inventory build - up pressure. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward correction. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Styrene port inventories are decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in stages [17]. - For polyethylene, the crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward valuation space of PE is limited. However, a high number of warehouse receipts is suppressing the market. Overall inventories are being reduced from a high level, and prices may remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end supply surplus may expand. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Overall inventory pressure is high, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. - For PX, it's expected to have a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending for gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. There are opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [26]. - For PTA, there will be continuous inventory build - up in November due to new device launches, and processing fees will be under pressure. The polyester load is unlikely to increase significantly. There are opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [28][29]. - For ethylene glycol, there will be continuous inventory build - up in the fourth quarter. Valuation is relatively low and may be further compressed. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 2.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.59% increase, at 458.10 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 24.00 yuan/ton, a 0.92% decrease, at 2593.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 14.00 yuan/ton, a 0.43% increase, at 3236.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data shows a 0.41 - million - barrel decrease in arrival inventory to 206.43 million barrels, a 0.20% decline; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.34 million barrels to 86.96 million barrels, a 1.52% decline; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.60 million barrels to 95.60 million barrels, a 0.62% decline; and total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 182.57 million barrels, a 1.05% decline [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 32, remained stable in southern Shandong, decreased by 20 in Inner Mongolia, and the 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 26 yuan to 2029 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 14. The 1 - 5 spread was - 8, reported at - 116 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see due to high inventories, high overseas production, weak demand, and potential price decline [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, decreased by 10 in Henan, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 10 yuan to 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 72. The 1 - 5 spread was 0, reported at - 75 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is sensitive to positive news. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the situation, and the market will mainly bottom out through oscillations [9]. Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded in oscillations. Typhoons affected rainfall in the Thai production area, and the November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange will expire and be out of storage. The market has a positive expectation. The long - side believes in limited production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China, while the short - side points out uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, 0.84 percentage points lower than last week but 5.70 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, 0.08 percentage points lower than last week and 4.38 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 9, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 105.63 tons, a 0.03 - ton increase (0.03% increase); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14600 (+50) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1830 (+5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1820 (+5) dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6950 (+0) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 10000 (+100) yuan [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - term long - bias trading strategy and partially establish a hedge position [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 7 yuan to 4601 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4510 (-10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 91 (-2) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 315 (-5) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 870 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 735 (-5) dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, a 2.2% decrease; the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.4% decrease; the ethylene method was 73.3%, a 6.4% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, a 0.1% decrease. Factory inventory was 32.2 tons (-1.2), and social inventory was 102.8 tons (-1.3) [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation is poor, and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5375 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract increased by 22 yuan/ton to 5547 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 173 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan decrease. The spot price of styrene increased by 125 yuan/ton to 6450 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract increased by 46 yuan/ton to 6496 yuan/ton, and the basis was 0 yuan/ton, a 112 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 106.87 yuan/ton, a 20.12 - yuan increase. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 363.25 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The EB 1 - 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a 2.31% increase. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.45 tons to 17.48 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, a 0.21% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.40%, a 1.90% increase; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, a 2.32% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, a 0.20% increase [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward correction, and styrene prices may stop falling in stages [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 6843 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6865 yuan/ton, and the basis was 12 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 83.72%, a 1.95% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory increased by 3.90 tons to 52.92 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.01 tons to 5.00 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 0.05% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan/ton, a 13 - yuan expansion [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price may have bottomed out, and PE valuation has limited downward space. However, high warehouse receipts are suppressing the market, and prices will remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 7 yuan to 6467 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6525 yuan/ton, and the basis was 51 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 80.82%, a 1.34% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory increased by 2.01 tons to 62 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.13 tons to 21.73 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.23 tons to 6.69 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.14%, a 0.52% increase. The LL - PP spread was 376 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan decrease [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - end supply surplus may expand. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Wait for the change in the supply - surplus situation at the cost end in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 6796 yuan, the CFR price decreased by 1 dollar to 831 dollars, and the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), the 1 - 3 spread was - 24 yuan (-2). The PX load in China was 86.8%, a 3% decrease; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 1.7% decrease. Shanghai Petrochemical stopped production, Sinochem Quanzhou had an unexpected early maintenance, and Vietnam's NSRP plans to reduce production for 2 weeks this weekend. The PTA load was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China in early November, a 1.8 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase month - on - month. The PXN was 255 dollars (-2), the South Korean PX - MX was 99 dollars (-1), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 dollars (-1) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect a slight inventory build - up in November, but there are opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 4692 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan, the basis was - 73 yuan (+2), the 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream load was 90.5%, a 0.8% decrease. Terminal draw - texturing load remained unchanged at 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 74%. On November 7, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 222.7 tons, a 2 - ton increase. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 15 yuan to 165 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 1 yuan to 234 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There will be continuous inventory build - up in November, and processing fees will be under pressure. There are opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [28][29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3938 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged at 3980 yuan, the basis was 42 yuan (-11), the 1 - 5 spread was - 85 yuan (+6). The supply - end operating rate of ethylene glycol was 71.6%, a 0.9% decrease; the synthetic gas method was 68%, a 4.3% decrease; the ethylene method was 73.6%, a 0.9% increase. Import arrival forecast was 18.1 tons, and the average daily departure from East China ports from November 14 - 16 was 0.9 tons. Port inventory was 73.2 tons, a 7.1 - ton increase. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 826 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of lump coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect continuous inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, and consider short - selling on rallies [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet expanding, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but the current oil prices need to test OPEC's export price - support willingness, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [3]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas开工 remains high, arrivals are at a high level, and port inventories are rising. Coal prices are strong, squeezing enterprise profits and causing a slight decline in enterprise开工. Demand is weak overall, and there is a risk of price decline, so it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to bullish news. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies improve the market atmosphere, and inventories are being depleted at a high level. The downside space is relatively limited, and it is expected to bottom out through oscillations [9]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is adopted, and short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, but supply is high, and new devices are about to be put into operation. Demand is under pressure, and export prospects are poor. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, and short - term valuation is low. A short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered in the medium term [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Port inventories are being depleted, and styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. Polyethylene's valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. Supply is limited, and demand is picking up seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [21]. - For polypropylene, the cost side sees a potential increase in global oil inventories, and supply pressure is high. Demand is picking up slightly, and overall inventories are high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and prices may be supported in Q1 2026 [24]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending into gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. Pay attention to the opportunity of mid - term valuation increase [27]. - For PTA, supply is expected to increase with new device launches, and inventories are expected to accumulate in November. Demand is expected to remain high but has limited room for improvement. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the mid - term increase in PXN [30]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply is high, imports are increasing, and inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. Valuation is relatively low, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.66%, to 457.40 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventories decreased by 0.65 million barrels to 8.18 million barrels, diesel inventories increased by 0.65 million barrels to 17.05 million barrels, etc. [2] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see in the short term to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 22, in Lunan by 10, and remained stable in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 48 yuan to 2055 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 5. The 1 - 5 spread was - 3, reporting - 108 [5]. - **Strategy View**: High port inventories, high overseas开工, and weak demand lead to a risk of price decline. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 6 yuan to 1652 yuan, and the basis was - 62. The 1 - 5 spread was - 2, reporting - 75 [8]. - **Strategy View**: The market is sensitive to news. Domestic supply exceeds demand, and new export policies improve the market. The downside space is limited, and it is expected to bottom out through oscillations [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Macro risk appetite declined, and rubber prices oscillated and declined. Tyre factory开工 rates were neutral. China's natural rubber social inventories increased by 0.03 million tons to 105.63 million tons [11]. - **Strategy View**: Adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term trading, and consider partial position establishment for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4608 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (+10) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 88 (-12) yuan/ton. The overall开工 rate was 78.5%, a 2.2% decrease [13]. - **Strategy View**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit is low, supply is high, demand is poor, and exports are expected to weaken. A short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered in the medium term [15] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5375 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of styrene rose 125 yuan/ton to 6450 yuan/ton. The BZN spread rose 20.12 yuan/ton to 106.87 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy View**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair, port inventories are being depleted, and styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price rose 35 yuan to 6853 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream开工 rate was 83.72%, a 1.95% increase. Production enterprise inventories increased by 3.90 million tons to 52.92 million tons [20]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC +'s plan may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. Polyethylene's valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [21] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price fell 6 yuan to 6474 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream开工 rate was 80.82%, a 1.34% increase. Production enterprise inventories increased by 2.01 million tons to 62 million tons [23]. - **Strategy View**: The cost side sees a potential increase in global oil inventories, and supply pressure is high. Demand is picking up slightly, and overall inventories are high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and prices may be supported in Q1 2026 [24] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 30 yuan to 6806 yuan. China's PX开工 rate was 86.8%, a 3% decrease, and Asia's was 78.5%, a 1.7% decrease. PTA开工 rate was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease [26]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending into gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. Pay attention to the opportunity of mid - term valuation increase [27] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract remained unchanged at 4700 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 70 yuan/ton to 4635 yuan. The PTA开工 rate was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease, and the polyester开工 rate was 90.5%, a 0.8% decrease [28]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is expected to increase with new device launches, and inventories are expected to accumulate in November. Demand is expected to remain high but has limited room for improvement. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the mid - term increase in PXN [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose 30 yuan to 3922 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 39 yuan to 3980 yuan. The supply - side开工 rate was 71.6%, a 0.9% decrease. Port inventories increased by 9.9 million tons to 66.1 million tons [31]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic supply is high, imports are increasing, and inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. Valuation is relatively low, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term excessive bearishness on oil prices is not advisable. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories are suppressing prices. Overseas production remains high, and the previous expected benefits from early overseas shutdowns have been disproven. With coal prices strong and enterprise profits declining, supply pressure persists while demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as prices may fall further [4]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large internal - external price differences and low domestic prices. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the market atmosphere, and it is expected to bottom out with limited downside [7]. - For rubber, there are different views from bulls and bears. Bulls focus on factors like limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved Chinese demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and weak demand. It is recommended to trade short - term with a neutral mindset and partially build a hedging position [9][10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong with low comprehensive enterprise profits and high production. Domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is advisable to consider short - term short - selling opportunities [11]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of benzene is relatively abundant, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and prices may stop falling [16]. - For polyethylene, the price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [19]. - For polypropylene, the cost side may face supply surplus, and the supply pressure is high. With weak supply and demand and high inventory, it may be supported in the first quarter of next year [22]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, but it is supported by aromatics blending for gasoline and long - term supply - demand structure. It mainly follows crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for mid - term valuation increase [26]. - For PTA, it is expected to accumulate inventory in November due to new device launches. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the mid - term [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 17.10 yuan/barrel, a 3.66% decline, at 449.50 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. Singapore's ESG oil product data showed gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, while fuel oil and total refined oil inventories increased [7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, and currently, wait and see [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang and Inner Mongolia prices were stable, and the 01 - contract on the futures market was down 5 yuan at 2103 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 [3]. - **Strategy**: High port inventories, strong coal prices, and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see as prices may fall [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price was down 10, while Henan and Hubei were stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 3 yuan at 1658 yuan, with a basis of - 68 [6]. - **Strategy**: Sensitive to positive news, high supply, and weak domestic demand. It is expected to bottom out with limited downside [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The expiration of November warehouse receipts led to positive market expectations. The opening rates of tire factories were neutral, and export new - order expectations were not high [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral mindset, trade short - term, and partially build a hedging position [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 5 yuan at 4586 yuan, with a basis of - 76. Supply was high, and demand was weak, with factory and social inventories changing [10]. - **Strategy**: Strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations. Consider short - term short - selling opportunities [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, while the price of styrene increased. The BZN spread was up, and the profit of non - integrated EB devices increased. Supply was under pressure, and demand was mixed [15]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price was up, and the spot price was stable. Supply was limited, and inventory was decreasing. Seasonal demand was emerging [18]. - **Strategy**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, and it is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price was up, and the spot price was stable. Supply pressure was high, and demand was gradually recovering [20]. - **Strategy**: With supply surplus on the cost side and high inventory, it may be supported in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 62 yuan at 6836 yuan. PX load was high, and downstream PTA load was low. Inventory was expected to increase slightly [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, mainly follow crude oil fluctuations, and there may be mid - term valuation increase opportunities [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 30 yuan at 4700 yuan, and the spot price was down. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was stable but facing pressure [27]. - **Strategy**: Expected to accumulate inventory in November, but there may be opportunities for strengthening driven by PXN increase in the mid - term [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan at 3892 yuan, and the spot price was down. Supply was high, and port inventory was increasing [29]. - **Strategy**: High supply and expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Bullish, and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand shows a mixed trend. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, overseas market trends, and seasonal demand changes, and their prices and market trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The overall supply was loose, and the transaction was average. The demand for propylene had some support due to the resumption of some devices [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures closed slightly higher. The supply of polyethylene was stable, but the demand was weakening. The spot of polypropylene showed signs of stabilizing [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rose strongly in the morning and then fell in the afternoon. The overseas gasoline trend was strong, but the rebound height should be viewed with caution due to weak downstream profits [3] - The main contract of styrene futures closed significantly higher. The overseas market was strong, but the future supply was expected to increase [3] Polyester - Affected by aromatics blending for gasoline, the prices of PX and PTA rebounded. However, considering the weakening chemical demand and uncertain US demand, a cautious bullish view was taken [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, with supply growth pressure. A bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [5] - Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand declined, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. The port was accumulating inventory, and the short - term was under pressure, but the valuation was low [6] - The urea market was supported by the rumor of export quota release, and the short - term was expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly upward price center [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated within a narrow range. The cancellation of India's BIS certification had little impact, and the market was in a state of high supply and low demand [7] - Caustic soda showed a weak trend due to high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a strong trend. The cost increased, and the short - term price was difficult to fall, but there was an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass fluctuated within a narrow range. The mid - stream inventory was high, and the price increase was weak, but the decline space was also limited [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal, with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait to see OPEC's export price - support willingness and suggest short - term observation [2]. - For methanol, domestic production has increased, imports have risen, and supply pressure has grown. Demand is weak, with enterprise and port inventories high. The weak reality remains, and it's recommended to wait and see as chasing short after a sharp decline has low cost - effectiveness and there is no driving force for long positions [3]. - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see as the price has limited upside and downside space [6]. - For rubber, adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak, with expected inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are poor, and it's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [15][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room to repair upwards. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [20]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in low - level consolidation as the cost may have bottomed, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [23]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the cost - side supply glut situation changes in the first quarter of next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, with valuation at a neutral level and mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [30]. - For PTA, it is expected to accumulate inventory in November, with limited processing fees. It may follow PX and crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for it to strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [30][32]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, with valuation under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.30% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In Fujeirah Port, gasoline, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased [1]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait to see OPEC's export price - support willingness and suggest short - term observation [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Taicang and Inner Mongolia prices were stable, Lunan increased by 10 yuan, the 01 contract on the disk decreased by 19 yuan to 2082 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 22. The 1 - 5 spread was - 5, at - 112 [2]. - **Strategy**: Domestic production has increased, imports have risen, and supply pressure has grown. Demand is weak, with enterprise and port inventories high. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: Shandong's spot price decreased by 10 yuan, Henan and Hubei were stable. The 01 contract on the disk decreased by 20 yuan to 1640 yuan, and the basis was - 30. The 1 - 5 spread was - 5, at - 77 [5]. - **Strategy**: Prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices rebounded, but the stock market and coking coal, a leading variety, declined. There are different views from bulls and bears. As of November 6, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.45%. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.6 tons, increasing by 1.7 tons [10][11][12]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 42 yuan to 4572 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4510 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 62 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 296 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 80.8%, with the calcium carbide method at 81.2% and the ethylene method at 79.7%. Demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.6%. Factory inventory was 33.5 tons, and social inventory was 104 tons [14]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and demand is weak, with expected inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are poor, and it's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [15][17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price also decreased, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 66.94%, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.37 tons to 17.93 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79% [19]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room to repair upwards. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6865 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was 105 yuan/ton, strengthening by 57 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.43%, and the weekly inventory of production enterprises and traders increased [22]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in low - level consolidation as the cost may have bottomed, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6429 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6530 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 101 yuan/ton, strengthening by 51 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.94%, and the weekly inventory of production enterprises and traders increased, while port inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the cost - side supply glut situation changes in the first quarter of next year [26]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract decreased by 96 yuan to 6756 yuan, and PX CFR decreased by 7 dollars to 821 dollars. The basis was - 50 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 18 yuan. China's PX load was 89.8%, and Asia's was 80.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted. PTA load was 76.4%. In early November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.5 tons, and the inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, with valuation at a neutral level and mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [30]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 56 yuan to 4648 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 4600 yuan. The basis was - 77 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan. PTA load was 76.4%, and the downstream load was 91.5%. The terminal draw - texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The social inventory at the end of October was 220.7 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory in November, with limited processing fees. It may follow PX and crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for it to strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [30][32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract decreased by 78 yuan to 3875 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 22 yuan to 3981 yuan. The basis was 68 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 91 yuan. The supply - side load was 72.4%, and the downstream load was 91.5%. The terminal draw - texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The port inventory was 66.1 tons, an increase of 9.9 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, with valuation under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [34].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The polyolefin market is under pressure, with a divergence in the fundamentals of PP and PE. PP shows a dual increase in supply and demand, but there is a slight inventory build - up this week under the pressure of new production capacity. PE has weak supply and demand, and although there is inventory reduction this week, port inventory remains high. The cost side is mixed, with high inventory and cost support in a continuous game [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish. Short - term observation is recommended, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be awaited later. For glass, short - term there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the overall trend is bearish. The PVC market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure, and the current market trades on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. Before the gas restriction in Iran, the weak reality will continue to be traded [8]. Natural Rubber - The supply in overseas production areas is expected to be strong during the peak season, and the domestic production is gradually decreasing. The demand is weakening in some northern regions. The market sentiment has improved, and subsequent attention should be paid to the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is generally loose, and the price driver is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds following the oil price. The supply - demand of styrene may remain in a tight balance, but the price driver is insufficient. EB12 can be shorted on rebounds [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6200 - 6800. For PTA, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4800. For ethylene glycol, the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the rebound space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand is in a loose pattern [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605, PP2601 and PP2605 have different price changes. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also show various trends. Spot prices of different varieties in different regions also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP have different changes in enterprise inventory, social inventory, and trade - related inventory. The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries also vary [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash have different price changes in different regions, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also change [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production remains at a high level, and the inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Glass production has changes in production lines, and the demand has short - term and long - term differences [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms and regions have corresponding changes, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also vary [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda supply is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The PVC supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices in different regions have changes, and the basis and regional spreads also vary [6]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increase. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries also have corresponding changes [7][8]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of natural rubber in different varieties and regions have changes, and the basis, month - to - month spreads also vary [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in different countries has changes, and the start - up rates of tire industries and the import and export volumes also vary [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in different forms and regions have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and import profits also vary [12]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports change, and the start - up rates of different industries in the industrial chain also vary [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials, PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and processing fees also vary [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of different products in the polyester industry chain have corresponding changes, and the start - up rates of different industries also vary [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but the current prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports, so short - term waiting is recommended [3]. - For methanol, domestic production has increased, imports have risen, supply pressure has intensified, while demand has weakened. The high - inventory issue on the 01 contract will increasingly suppress spot prices. With no substantial short - term positive news from overseas supply, there may be further declines. However, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, and there is no clear driving force for long - positions, so waiting is advised [6]. - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack a driving force. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Although the upside is limited, the downside is also restricted at these low prices, so waiting is recommended [9]. - For rubber, prices rebounded as expected. It's recommended to set a stop - loss and conduct short - term long - trades on pullbacks. A partial position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level this year, and valuation pressure is low in the short - term. However, supply is high, new devices are about to be commissioned, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline, so there is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short - term [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price of crude oil may have bottomed out. Although the downward space for PE valuation is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, demand may pick up, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [23]. - For polypropylene, although the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus, the downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. With high inventory pressure and high - level warehouse receipts, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, and PTA processing fees are under pressure. It's expected to see a slight inventory increase in November, but it will be supported by aromatics blending and future supply - demand structure. It mainly follows crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium - term [29]. - For PTA, supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning and maintenance, and inventory is expected to accumulate in November. Although polyester demand may remain high, the upside is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium - term [32]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas device loads are high, imports are increasing, and ports are starting to accumulate inventory. It's expected to see continuous inventory accumulation in Q4, and it's recommended to short - sell on rallies [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 4.90 yuan/barrel, or 1.07%, at 461.80 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline, fuel oil, naphtha, and aviation kerosene inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased. The total refined oil inventory increased by 1.73 million barrels to 45.27 million barrels, a 3.97% increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but the current prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports, so short - term waiting is recommended [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 30, in Inner Mongolia increased by 7.5, and in southern Shandong decreased by 10. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 11 yuan to 2101 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 41. The 1 - 5 spread was - 6, at - 107 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic production has increased, imports have risen, supply pressure has intensified, while demand has weakened. The high - inventory issue on the 01 contract will increasingly suppress spot prices. With no substantial short - term positive news from overseas supply, there may be further declines. However, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, and there is no clear driving force for long - positions, so waiting is advised [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 1660 yuan, with a basis of - 40. The 1 - 5 spread was - 5, at - 72 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack a driving force. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Although the upside is limited, the downside is also restricted at these low prices, so waiting is recommended [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The report previously suggested buying opportunities in rubber, and prices rebounded as expected. There are different views on the market. Bulls focus on factors such as limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits. As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. Spot prices of some rubber products increased [12][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices rebounded as expected. It's recommended to set a stop - loss and conduct short - term long - trades on pullbacks. A partial position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 3 yuan to 4614 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 295 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased. Factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level this year, and valuation pressure is low in the short - term. However, supply is high, new devices are about to be commissioned, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline, so there is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene remained unchanged, with a stable basis. The spot and futures prices of styrene decreased, and the basis weakened. The upstream operating rate increased, and the port inventory decreased. The weighted operating rate of three S decreased, but the PS operating rate increased, while the EPS and ABS operating rates decreased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short - term [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polyethylene was 6802 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate decreased. The LL1 - 5 spread widened [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price of crude oil may have bottomed out. Although the downward space for PE valuation is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, demand may pick up, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polypropylene increased by 16 yuan to 6480 yuan, while the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate increased. The LL - PP spread narrowed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus, the downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. With high inventory pressure and high - level warehouse receipts, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in Q1 next year [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 72 yuan to 6852 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 5 dollars to 828 dollars. The basis was - 90 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was 24 yuan. The PX operating rate in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted. The PTA operating rate decreased. PX imports from South Korea to China increased in October, and inventory increased at the end of September [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, and PTA processing fees are under pressure. It's expected to see a slight inventory increase in November, but it will be supported by aromatics blending and future supply - demand structure. It mainly follows crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium - term [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 40 yuan to 4704 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 4605 yuan. The basis was - 78 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan. The PTA operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. Social inventory increased in October [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply is expected to increase due to new device commissioning and maintenance, and inventory is expected to accumulate in November. Although polyester demand may remain high, the upside is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium - term [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 11 yuan to 3953 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 10 yuan to 4003 yuan. The basis was 70 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. Port inventory increased [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high, imports are increasing, and ports are starting to accumulate inventory. It's expected to see continuous inventory accumulation in Q4, and it's recommended to short - sell on rallies [34].