Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows a mixed trend, with a marginal decline in construction activity [1] - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.7% week-on-week and rose by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 90% [1][4] - Apparent steel consumption rose by 0.9% week-on-week and increased by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.2% [1] Group 2: Chemical and Consumption Chains - The chemical chain shows overall weak performance, with soda ash operating rate declining by 1.7% week-on-week and down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [9] - PTA operating rate increased by 0.2% week-on-week but fell by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -8.4% [9] - In the downstream consumption chain, polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.3% week-on-week and rose by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 1.8% [9] Group 3: Construction Industry Insights - Cement demand shows marginal improvement, with grinding operating rate declining by 3.8% week-on-week and down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.7% [17] - Cement shipment rate decreased by 1.1% week-on-week but increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [17] - Cement inventory ratio continued to decline, down 1.7% week-on-week and up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.5% [17] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 26.1% week-on-week and fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [34] - First-tier and second-tier cities showed improvement in transactions, with year-on-year increases of 1% and 7.6% respectively [34] - Port cargo throughput increased, with container throughput rising by 2.4% year-on-year to 9% [44] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with egg and vegetable prices declining by 0.8% and 2.8% respectively, while fruit prices increased by 0.8% [79] - The South China industrial product price index rose by 0.6% week-on-week, with the metal price index increasing by 1.9% [90]

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows a mixed trend, with an increase in high furnace operation and steel consumption. The high furnace operating rate increased by 0.7% week-on-week and rose by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 90% [2] - Steel apparent consumption increased by 0.9% week-on-week and rose by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year to 220 million tons [2] - The social inventory of steel continued to decline, down by 2.5% [2] Group 2: Weakness in Petrochemical and Consumer Chains - In the petrochemical chain, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.7% week-on-week and fell by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [6] - The PTA operating rate saw a slight increase of 0.2% week-on-week but decreased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -8.4% [6] - In the consumer chain, the polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.3% week-on-week and rose by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 1.8%, while the operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires decreased by 2.7% week-on-week and fell by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year to -9.2% [6] Group 3: Construction Industry Insights - Cement demand showed marginal improvement, with the national grinding operating rate decreasing by 3.8% week-on-week and falling by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.7% [11] - The cement shipment rate decreased by 1.1% week-on-week but increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [11] - Cement inventory continued to decline, down by 1.7% week-on-week and up by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.5% [11] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 26.1% week-on-week and fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [20] - First and second-tier cities saw improvements in transactions, with year-on-year increases of 1% and 7.6% respectively, while third-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 21.2% to -50.8% [20] - Port cargo throughput showed a recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percentage points to 3.2% [25] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with egg and vegetable prices decreasing by 0.8% and 2.8% respectively, while fruit prices increased by 0.8% [48] - The industrial product price index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index decreasing by 0.2% and the metal price index increasing by 1.9% [54]

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows a mixed trend, with an increase in blast furnace operation and apparent steel consumption. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.7% week-on-week and rose by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 90% [2] - The steel apparent consumption increased by 0.9% week-on-week and rose by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year to 220 million tons [2] - The social inventory of steel continued to decline, decreasing by 2.5% week-on-week [2] - The petrochemical and consumer chains are generally weak, with the soda ash operating rate decreasing by 1.7% week-on-week and down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [6] - The PTA operating rate increased by 0.2% week-on-week but fell by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -8.4% [6] Group 2: Construction Industry Insights - In the construction sector, cement demand showed marginal improvement, with the grinding operating rate decreasing by 3.8% week-on-week and down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.7% [11] - The cement shipment rate decreased by 1.1% week-on-week but increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [11] - Cement inventory continued to decline, with the inventory-to-capacity ratio decreasing by 1.7% week-on-week and increasing by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.5% [11] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Trends - The national commodity housing transaction remains at a low level, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreasing by 26.1% week-on-week and down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [20] - The transaction in first and second-tier cities improved year-on-year, increasing by 1% and 7.6% respectively, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 21.2% year-on-year to -50.8% [20] - The port cargo throughput showed a rebound, with container throughput increasing by 2.4% year-on-year to 9% [25] - The intensity of human mobility increased, with the national migration scale index rising by 26 percentage points year-on-year to 35.1% [29] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices showed differentiation, with egg and vegetable prices decreasing by 0.8% and 2.8% respectively, while fruit prices increased by 0.8% [48] - The industrial product price index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index decreasing by 0.2% and the metal price index increasing by 1.9% [54]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 纯碱当日行情： 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to continue operating within the bottom range, and the winter storage is unlikely to form a concentrated replenishment market. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policies and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply of iron ore has decreased in the short term, the demand has slightly recovered, and the port inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to overseas emergencies [5] - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced [9][10] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are weak, and it mainly relies on silicon enterprises' production cuts to support prices. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate. The demand is weak, the supply is still loose, and the inventory accumulation pressure exists. Attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprises' quota sales and the terminal demand feedback [16] - The price of glass may rise slightly, but the market lacks substantial demand and policy support. The price upward space is estimated to be between 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - The price of soda ash is expected to decline. The supply is in excess, and it is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3104 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of rebar show a slight increase in production, a decline in apparent demand, and continuous inventory reduction. For hot - rolled coils, production has increased significantly, apparent demand has strengthened slightly, and inventory has continued to decline [2] - The overall market is in a narrow - range shock, the terminal demand recovery is slow, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is under pressure. The steel price is expected to continue operating in the bottom range [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 797.00 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+7.50). The position increased by 25428 hands to 61.88 million hands. The weighted position was 94.83 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 806 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.59 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.96% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has declined, and the shipping from non - mainstream countries has also decreased. The near - end arrival volume has increased [5] - Demand: The daily average molten iron output has slightly increased, some blast furnaces have resumed production, and the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved [5] - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level in the past five years [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.78% at 5866 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.85% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - Macro: After a series of important macro - events, the market has shown a positive trend, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the "leading" products on the market sentiment [9] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been reflected in the price. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10] - Key factors: The market direction of the black sector and cost - push factors of manganese ore and supply - contraction factors of ferrosilicon are the main contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (-130). The weighted contract position decreased by 3538 hands to 342532 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis of 470 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively [12] - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 58645 yuan/ton, up 1.25% (+725). The weighted contract position decreased by 6544 hands to 129961 hands. The spot prices of N - type silicon increased, with a basis of - 5395 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable, the demand in January is weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - Polysilicon: The downstream production in January has continued to decline, the supply is still loose, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of quota sales and terminal demand feedback [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1081 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.55% (-6). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 413 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 848 short positions [18] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1177 yuan/ton on Monday, down 2.65% (-32). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 1719 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 1109 short positions [20] Strategy Views - Glass: In December, the supply decreased, the demand declined in winter, and the market lacked substantial support. The price may rise slightly, with the upward space around 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - Soda Ash: In December, the domestic market was narrowly sorted, the supply was in excess, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the optimization and adjustment of housing purchase policies in Beijing, aiming to support housing demand for non-local families and families with multiple children [4] - The article highlights the adjustment of personal housing credit policies, including the removal of distinctions between first and second home loan interest rates, and an increase in public fund support for housing consumption [4] - It mentions the shift in project approval for real estate development from city-level to district-level, indicating a more localized approach to real estate management [4] Group 2 - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the industry, with a focus on the "anti-involution" theme, particularly in the cement and glass sectors, where supply-side dynamics are crucial amid declining demand [5] - It notes that the average profitability of the cement and float glass industries has fallen below the breakeven point, making supply-side adjustments a key observation area [5] - The article identifies new areas of interest, including electronic fabrics, clean rooms, and commercial aerospace, driven by high capital expenditures in the semiconductor and storage sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The construction industry PMI has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, indicating a potential turning point for the real estate chain in 2026. The stability of infrastructure investment is deemed necessary amidst declining real estate investment expectations [4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of supply-side adjustments in the cement industry, with a focus on the exit of outdated capacities and the potential for improved profitability in 2026 [8][19]. - The glass market is experiencing price fluctuations, with a notable decline in average prices compared to the previous year, suggesting ongoing challenges in demand and supply dynamics [46][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Cement Market Overview - The national average price for high-standard cement is 352.8 RMB/ton, down 1.2 RMB/ton from last week and down 53.8 RMB/ton from the same period in 2024. Regions with price increases include Guangdong (+5.0 RMB/ton) and Central South (+1.7 RMB/ton), while declines were noted in the Yangtze River Basin (-2.1 RMB/ton) and Southwest (-9.0 RMB/ton) [14][15]. - The average cement inventory ratio is 60.4%, down 1.4 percentage points from last week but up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. The average cement shipment rate is 40.3%, down 1.1 percentage points from last week and down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [19][21]. 2. Glass Market Overview - The average price for float glass is 1121.3 RMB/ton, a decrease of 18.8 RMB/ton from last week and down 270.4 RMB/ton from the same period in 2024. The inventory of float glass in 13 provinces is 53.78 million heavy boxes, down 155,000 boxes from last week but up 1.361 million boxes year-on-year [46][51]. - The report indicates that the supply of float glass is under pressure, with production lines being shut down due to losses, which may lead to price rebounds in the future as demand stabilizes [45][46]. 3. Fiberglass Market Overview - The fiberglass market is expected to see stable growth in demand, particularly in wind power and thermoplastic applications, with effective capacity projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [8]. - The report suggests that the profitability of leading companies in the fiberglass sector may improve due to structural demand and new applications, enhancing their competitive advantages [8].

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production increased this week, while cement clinker capacity utilization rate improved[1] - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt decreased, while the operating rates for automotive semi-steel and full-steel tires fell[1] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 33.7% year-on-year as of January 2, 2026, a decline of 9.6 percentage points from the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.64% week-on-week as of December 22, 2025[1] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of automobiles in December 2025 were 1.928 million units, down 17% year-on-year, compared to a 7% decline in November[1] - Major home appliance retail sales dropped by 34.4% year-on-year as of December 19, 2025, a decrease of 11.3 percentage points from the end of November[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of December 28, 2025, but this was a decline of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The export container shipping price index rose by 2.0% week-on-week, marking the third consecutive week of increase[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index fell by 0.3% this week, while the Nanhua Black Materials Index rose by 0.1%[1] - The wholesale price index for agricultural products decreased by 1% week-on-week, with some prices for fruits and pork rising while vegetable and egg prices fell[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Market sentiment has declined, and the overall fundamentals are weak. Hold short positions around 15,700 [1]. Pure Benzene - The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5,300 - 5,600 [4]. Styrene - The rebound space is limited. EB02/03 should be treated bearishly above 6,800, and short the EB processing margin on rallies [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the price rebound space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the inventory inflection point. - Glass: The upward space of the disk is limited, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening of demand [5]. Methanol - The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to destocking in the first quarter of the next year, which will support the 05 contract [7][8][9]. LLDPE and PP - PP: The pressure on the 05 contract is still large if there are few planned maintenance; PE: The overall pressure is still large in January [13]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chip - PX: The upstream PX price is expected to adjust before the festival. It is recommended to go long at a low level in the medium - term and conduct positive spread trading for the 5 - 9 month spread. - PTA: It follows raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to trade in the high - level range of 4,800 - 5,200 and conduct positive spread trading for the 5 - 9 month spread. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at a high level near 4,000 for EG2605 and conduct relevant spread trading. - Short - fiber: The absolute price follows raw material fluctuations. Short the processing margin on rallies. - Bottle chip: It follows the cost side. Short the processing margin on rallies [14]. LPG No specific overall view is provided, just price and inventory data. Crude Oil - The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. Continued attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [18]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of some varieties remained unchanged, while the basis of whole milk and non - standard prices changed significantly [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1000.00%, and the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of some countries decreased in November, and the tire production and export increased [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some upstream products remained stable, and the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha increased [4]. - **Benzene - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed slightly, and the processing margins of some products improved [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased, and the operating rates of some products changed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions remained unchanged, and the 01 contract price decreased slightly [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions decreased, and the 01 and 05 contract prices decreased [5]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: The operating rate and production of soda ash decreased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol contracts and spot prices changed slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve [9]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: The contract prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and the spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of LLDPE and PP decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of LLDPE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [13]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chip - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as PX and ethylene changed, and the spreads changed [14]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PTA and related spreads changed, and the processing margins improved [14]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MEG and related spreads changed, and the inventory increased [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory and operating rates of polyester products changed [14]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads and basis decreased [16]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The refinery storage ratio of LPG increased, and the port inventory decreased [16]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products decreased, and the spreads changed [18].