Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in industrial production, the continued recovery in infrastructure construction, and the weakness in real estate transactions, indicating mixed signals in the economic landscape [2][4][29]. Group 1: Industrial Production - The high furnace operating rate increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 6.8%, while the apparent consumption continued to weaken, dropping by 1.9 percentage points to 0% [4]. - Chemical production showed significant declines, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 4.1 percentage points to 1.7% and 5.5 percentage points to 12.1%, respectively [11]. - The automotive sector also faced challenges, with the operating rate for semi-steel tires decreasing by 0.3 percentage points to 6.2% [11]. Group 2: Construction Industry - Infrastructure construction is showing signs of recovery, with the asphalt operating rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 9.2% [2][23]. - However, cement production and demand have declined, with the national grinding operating rate and cement shipment rate down by 3.3 percentage points to 9% and 1.3 percentage points to 4.2%, respectively [17]. Group 3: Real Estate and Demand - National new housing daily transaction area remains weak, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6% to 0%, particularly in first and third-tier cities [29]. - The migration scale index decreased by 7.6% year-on-year to 12.8%, indicating a marginal decline in human mobility [40]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have declined, with pork, eggs, and fruit prices down by 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.5% respectively, while vegetable prices increased by 1.7% [56]. - The industrial product price index rose by 0.2%, with the metal price index also increasing by 0.2% [62].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The demand for special electronic fabrics is a blue ocean, with domestic leaders actively expanding [6] - Cement prices continue to rise, while glass inventory has shifted from increasing to decreasing [7] - The report recommends focusing on special fabrics and the African chain, with existing leaders as the main line for the year [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Special Electronic Fabrics - China National Materials Technology has announced new expansion plans, indicating strong commitment. Taishan Fiberglass plans to invest 1.81 billion yuan to build a project with an annual output of 35 million meters of special fiber fabric and another 1.75 billion yuan for a project with an annual output of 24 million meters of ultra-low loss low dielectric fabric (Q fabric). The total annual output of these projects will reach 59 million meters, with a construction period of 18 months. The funding will come from self-owned funds and bank loans. After production, the total capacity is expected to reach approximately 120 million meters. Additionally, China Jushi has also confirmed its increased investment in the special electronic fabric sector. AI electronic fabrics are expected to be a new wave for industry leaders, considering the high technical barriers, product iteration, and sustained unexpected demand [6]. Cement Market - As of the end of August, cement demand has slightly rebounded in southern regions due to reduced rainfall. However, demand has weakened in regions like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, and Henan due to stricter environmental controls. The average cement shipment rate in key regions is approximately 45.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month. Some areas are still actively pushing for price increases, leading to an overall market price increase of 0.5% [7]. Glass Market - The domestic float glass market has seen a slight improvement in transactions, with prices gradually stabilizing and some areas experiencing minor price increases. As downstream processing plants further digest inventory, there has been a slight increase in essential replenishment, supporting float glass manufacturers. However, the current inventory level remains high, and speculative sources still pose risks. The production capacity has slightly increased, with 283 float glass production lines in total, 222 of which are operational, with a daily melting capacity of 158,855 tons [8][36]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on core leader China National Materials Technology due to the explosive demand for AI and high supply barriers in special electronic fabrics. The report also highlights the African chain, recommending Keda Manufacturing, which has advantages in production, channels, and brand in the African market. The report anticipates continued recovery in net profit margins in 2025H, benefiting from the recovery in lithium carbonate prices. Additionally, it recommends Huaxin Cement and Western Cement, noting Huaxin's acquisition of Haorui's Nigerian assets, which enhances overseas profit elasticity [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, with insufficient decline in production, leading to continued supply - demand contradictions and weak prices. The soda ash market may see increased production after the end of summer maintenance, and with new capacity coming online in the second half of the year, demand is expected to weaken further, intensifying the supply - demand imbalance [1]. - The ferromanganese and ferrosilicon markets are both in a situation of over - supply. They need to suppress production through losses, and their prices will follow the fluctuations of the sector [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market fell sharply yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market opened low and moved lower yesterday. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid restocking, and prices have generally declined [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: Demand remains weak with no significant improvement, high inventory has great pressure to reduce, and production decline is insufficient due to remaining production profits in non - natural gas production lines, resulting in continued supply - demand contradictions and weak prices [1]. - Soda Ash: After the end of summer maintenance, production may gradually recover. With new capacity coming online in the second half of the year, demand is expected to weaken further, intensifying the supply - demand imbalance. The market needs to suppress capacity release through losses, and the premium in the futures market further suppresses prices [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - Ferromanganese: The sentiment in the ferromanganese futures market continued to cool yesterday. The main contract closed at 5,736 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97%. The spot market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with average trading volume [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market continued to fall yesterday. The main contract closed at 5,532 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%. The spot market sentiment is average, and prices have been slightly adjusted downward [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Ferromanganese: Production and sales have increased month - on - month, inventory has continued to decline, and costs have slightly decreased. However, the industry still has obvious over - supply, and production needs to be suppressed through losses [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Production and sales have increased, and factory inventory has decreased, but the absolute inventory is still high, suppressing prices. The industry also has obvious over - supply and needs to suppress production through losses [3]. - **Strategy** - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from a slight recovery in cement demand, particularly in southern regions as rainfall decreases. However, demand in areas like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, and Henan is weakening due to stricter environmental controls [2][14] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in cement, driven by improved demand and supply-side discipline, with a focus on leading companies such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which are expected to positively impact the home improvement and building materials sectors [17] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The construction materials sector saw a slight increase in the PMI for August, indicating a seasonal uptick in activity, particularly in major infrastructure projects initiated in July [4] - The construction materials index showed a marginal increase of 0.14% during the week, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [4] 2. Bulk Construction Materials 2.1 Cement - The national average price for high-standard cement is reported at 344.3 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.7 RMB/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 35.2 RMB/ton [22][23] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 63.6%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous week [25] - The report anticipates a potential price stabilization and recovery in the cement market, particularly in the second half of the year [5][14] 2.2 Glass - The average price for float glass is reported at 1189.7 RMB/ton, down 16.1 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 176.6 RMB/ton year-on-year [4] - The report suggests that supply-side adjustments are likely to improve the supply-demand balance in the glass industry, with a focus on leading companies benefiting from cost advantages [16] 2.3 Fiberglass - The report notes a stable pricing environment for fiberglass, with the average price for non-alkali roving at 3100-3700 RMB/ton, remaining stable compared to previous periods [4] - The demand for specialty fiberglass products is expected to grow significantly, driven by technological advancements and increased applications in various industries [15] 3. Home Improvement Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption, particularly in the home improvement sector, with expectations for a recovery in demand [17] - Leading companies in the home improvement materials sector are encouraged to explore new business models and enhance their market positioning [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "volatile" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizing crude steel reduction and the approaching military parade leading to production restrictions, the black building materials sector is still subject to short - term disturbances. After the military parade, with low inventory in the industrial chain and restocking demand, there is a driving force for price rebounds. However, weak terminal demand during the peak season may limit the upside space [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - The steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizes crude steel reduction, and the approaching military parade restricts production. This has a negative impact on the demand for furnace materials, causing the prices of coal, coke, and ore to decline during the day, which in turn drags down steel prices. At night, the sector remains under pressure. After the military parade, steel mills are expected to resume production, and with the pre - National Day restocking demand, the sector may rise [1] 2. Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected [2][9] - Demand: Iron water production decreased slightly. As the military parade approaches, steel mills in Hebei will gradually enter maintenance, and iron water production is expected to decline, but the impact is limited. After the military parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2][9] - Inventory: This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2][9] - Scrap steel: The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The pressure on finished product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][10] 3. Carbon Element - Coke: As the military parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. In the short term, the coke supply remains tight. Although price increases are difficult to implement, prices are supported before the military parade. After the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [2][11] - Coking coal: Before the military parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the downward price space is expected to be limited [2][11] 4. Alloys - Manganese silicon: Currently, the inventory pressure of manganese silicon manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and prices are under significant downward pressure in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [2][16] - Ferrosilicon: The current inventory pressure of ferrosilicon manufacturers is not large, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand relationship will become looser, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of power costs in major production areas [2][17] 5. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are high. After trading the delivery contradictions, the far - month contracts still offer a premium. In the medium - to - long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed. If prices return to fundamental trading, they are expected to decline with fluctuations [3][12][13] 6. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the decline in the futures market, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline, driving capacity reduction [3][15] 7. Specific Product Analysis - Steel: The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the futures market is weak. Before and after the military parade, both supply and demand will be affected. In the short term, the futures market may continue to adjust weakly. After the military parade, the release of restocking demand during the peak season may support prices [8] - Iron ore: Shipments and arrivals increased, and port inventory decreased slightly. The demand is at a high level, and the supply and inventory are stable. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9] - Scrap steel: The supply decreased, and the demand from both EAF and blast furnaces declined. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] - Coke: It is difficult to implement price increases, and the supply has tightened. Before the military parade, the price is supported, and after the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [11] - Coking coal: The supply has tightened, and the market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to remain stable before the military parade [11] - Glass: The mid - stream sales pressure has squeezed the upstream production and sales. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [12][13] - Soda ash: The supply has been slightly disturbed, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the long term [15] - Manganese silicon: The black chain declined, and the futures price was weak. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price has significant downward pressure [16] - Ferrosilicon: Market confidence is insufficient, and the futures price center has moved down. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price center will tend to decline [17]

Group 1 - The core players in the fiberglass electronic cloth industry are accelerating their capacity expansion, with China National Materials announcing an addition of 35 billion low dielectric cloth capacity and China Jushi indicating progress in developing specialty electronic cloth series products [1] - China Jushi's scale and cost control capabilities, along with its strong cooperation with downstream CCL manufacturers, suggest that it will penetrate the supply chain and capture a certain market share in the future [1] - The cement industry is expected to see a continuous decline in capacity under the anti-overproduction policy, leading to a significant increase in capacity utilization rates, with a potential demand recovery and price increase anticipated in August [2] - The glass industry is facing a downward trend in demand due to real estate impacts, but the supply side is expected to improve as most companies meet environmental requirements, accelerating the industry's cold repair progress [2] - The fiberglass sector is experiencing a surge in demand driven by the AI industry, with low dielectric products seeing both volume and price increases, indicating a trend of continuous growth in demand [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Market Overview**: The A - share market showed a strong oscillation on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The trading volume in the market was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous industry strengthened across the board, and gold stocks soared. The CPO giants led the AI hardware segment to strengthen again, while the satellite Internet concept weakened and the large - finance sector declined generally [1]. - **Key Products Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed a strong upward trend. Factors such as Trump's attempt to interfere with the Fed, the proposed inclusion of silver in the key minerals list, and the increased expectation of a September interest rate cut were positive for precious metals. However, factors like the rebound of US inflation data and the easing of geopolitical risks restricted the upward space of gold. In the long - term, the continuous increase of gold reserves by the People's Bank of China provided support for gold [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September increases the attractiveness of RMB assets. The market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment and has high volatility. The supply is increasing, and the demand for lithium in cathode materials is also rising. The inventory situation is complex, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid increase, but if the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: Fed理事提名人米兰很可能在9月美联储会议前就职，几位美联储主席人选也有望担任理事 [6]. - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping stated at the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting that China is willing to jointly build an AI application cooperation center with all parties to share the dividends of AI development [7]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of this year, the total net profit attributable to the parent company of A - share listed companies was 2.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. Nearly 77% of the stocks achieved profitability, and the proportion of stocks with a year - on - year positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent company was nearly 46%. Wanchen Group had a 504 - fold increase in performance in the first half of the year [8]. b. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 8/31 | 9/1 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,965.58 | 14,904.15 | - 61.43 | - 0.41% | | London Gold Spot | US dollars/ounce | 3,447.57 | 3,478.96 | 31.39 | 0.91% | | London Silver | US dollars/ounce | 39.67 | 40.65 | 0.98 | 2.47% | [9] c. Morning Comments on Major Products - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable situation, but sector rotation needs attention [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. The Fed's possible interest rate cut and the domestic economic situation affect the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.1% at night. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine affect oil exports, and OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. The market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.68% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory in coastal areas increased. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber had a narrow - range oscillation on Monday. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the futures can drive the spot price to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures continued to be weak. Both are in a process of inventory digestion, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and future consumption [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strongly bullish. Multiple factors affect the price, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payrolls data [2][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors. The price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the supply - demand situation may turn to surplus. The price may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also rising. There is a risk of correction, but if the inventory decreases, the price may rise [4][21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel mills' production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. The market expects an increase in shipments in the second half of the year. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory is accumulating. The export situation is complex, and the market has a weak supply - demand balance. The short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are in a high - level oscillation. The high - level iron - water production boosts the demand, but factors such as inventory changes and price cut expectations put pressure on the prices [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meals**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meals oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the decrease in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to oscillate narrowly [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats oscillated at night. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in August, and the export increased. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is entering a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded, rising 1.53%. The market is mainly gambling on the off - season freight rate space. The price may be weakly volatile in September and may be supported at the end of September and early October [30].

Group 1 - The core players in the fiberglass electronic cloth industry are accelerating their capacity expansion, with China National Materials announcing an addition of 35 million square meters of low dielectric cloth capacity and 24 million meters of ultra-low loss low dielectric cloth capacity [1] - China Jushi's mid-year report indicates that the development of special electronic cloth series products is progressing actively, with downstream certifications also accelerating [1] - Given China Jushi's cost control capabilities and good cooperation with downstream CCL manufacturers, it is expected that the company will penetrate the supply chain and capture a certain market share in the future [1] Group 2 - The cement industry is expected to see a continuous decline in capacity under the implementation of anti-overproduction policies, leading to a significant increase in capacity utilization rates [2] - The glass industry is facing a downward trend in demand due to real estate impacts, but the supply side is not expected to see a drastic capacity reduction despite increased environmental requirements [2] - The fiberglass industry is experiencing a surge in demand driven by the AI industry, with low dielectric products seeing both volume and price increases, indicating a trend of continuous growth in demand [2]