1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Near the Sino - US tariff extension deadline, tariff negotiation rhythm may drive short - term trading. The weak US employment data leads to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. The widening COMEX - LME spread attracts non - US copper to the US. In the long - term, copper supply shortage will support the price bottom, but short - term price is affected by demand changes and tariff negotiations [1]. Aluminum - After the holiday, the alumina futures price is under pressure, and the aluminum price fluctuates. The alumina supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The aluminum market is in a tight balance, with high - price suppressing procurement and low inventory levels. The short - term prices of alumina and aluminum are expected to be range - bound [3]. Aluminum Alloy - After the holiday, the casting aluminum alloy futures price strengthens. The cost is supported, but the supply is restricted by raw materials and policies. The demand recovers moderately, and the inventory increase slows down. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term zinc price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upward elasticity is limited. It may maintain a range - bound movement unless there are significant changes in demand or supply [8]. Tin - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is weak. After the sharp decline of the outer - plate metal, the tin price may fall, but considering the strong fundamentals, it can be considered to buy at low prices after the risk is released. The future price depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar [10]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuates widely. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the policy expectations of the Indonesian ore end are increasing. The cost is supported, but the medium - term supply is loose. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuates narrowly. The macro - environment is uncertain, the raw material price is firm, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the inventory reduction is slow. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates. The supply path is becoming clear, but the news may bring variables. The demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86,680 yuan/ton, up 1.10% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - September electrolytic copper production is 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% [1]. - August electrolytic copper import is 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,980 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [3]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - September alumina production is 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% [3]. - September electrolytic aluminum production is 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,524 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [5]. Fundamental Data - August recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% [5]. - August primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [8]. - The import profit and loss is - 3,968 yuan/ton, up 199.94 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - September refined zinc production is 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% [8]. - August refined zinc import is 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 287,400 yuan/ton, up 1.13% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. Fundamental Data - August tin ore import is 10,267 tons, down 0.11% [10]. - September SMM refined tin production is 10,510 tons, down 31.71% [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,850 yuan/ton, up 0.20% [12]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [12]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 32,200 tons, up 1.26% [12]. - Refined nickel import is 17,010 tons, down 3.00% [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The spot - futures price difference is 13,220 yuan/ton, up 2597.96% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) is 187.48 million tons, up 4.42% [13]. - Stainless steel import is 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - September lithium carbonate production is 87,260 tons, up 2.37% [14]. - September lithium carbonate demand is 116,801 tons, up 12.28% [14].

Core Viewpoint - The global market is expected to enter a phase of dual monetary and fiscal policy easing, driving funds into resource and equity markets, with significant attention on gold prices which have surpassed $4000 per ounce [1][2][8]. Group 1: Global Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown on October 1 has delayed the release of some economic data, with private sector employment data significantly below market expectations, reinforcing the Fed's rate cut outlook [6][7]. - The U.S. "Big and Beautiful" act has passed, involving large-scale tax cuts and increased government spending to stimulate the economy, while the EU has launched an €800 billion plan to enhance military capabilities and support Ukraine [7][8]. - Japan's new leadership under Kishi has a strong inclination towards expansionary fiscal policies, continuing the legacy of Abenomics [7]. Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - During the holiday period, global equity markets and resource commodities such as gold, silver, and copper have shown an upward trend, driven by easing monetary policies and geopolitical uncertainties [2][8]. - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index return to 3900 points for the first time in ten years, with significant gains in resource and technology sectors [12]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - International gold prices have risen due to a combination of rate cut expectations, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank purchases, with prices reaching over $4000 per ounce [2][8]. - International copper prices are experiencing upward momentum due to supply-side disruptions and long-term demand driven by the computing revolution [8]. Group 4: Military and Defense Sector Outlook - The military industry is expected to see increased order expectations as the 14th Five-Year Plan concludes and the 15th begins, with a focus on unmanned and intelligent equipment driving recovery in orders and profit margins [3][12]. - Geopolitical events are likely to enhance the importance of military trade, providing opportunities for the domestic military industry [3][12]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The upcoming policy window in October is anticipated to drive the A-share market upward, with a focus on artificial intelligence and new consumer opportunities in resource sectors [13].

Group 1 - Guangqi Technology's subsidiary signed mass production contracts for metamaterials totaling 516 million yuan, with products to be delivered by June 30, 2026 [1][2] - Mingyang Smart Energy plans to invest 1.5 billion pounds (approximately 14.21 billion yuan) to build a comprehensive wind power manufacturing base in Scotland, with the first phase expected to be operational by the end of 2028 [3][4] - Wentech Technology's control over Anshi Semiconductor is temporarily restricted due to a ministerial order from the Dutch government, affecting operational efficiency but not economic benefits [4][5] Group 2 - Baotailong's mine has officially resumed production with an annual design capacity of 900,000 tons [6] - New Lai Materials reported no significant changes in its operating environment, maintaining normal production and operations [7][8] - Tailing Micro plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9] Group 3 - Times New Material announced a cash dividend of 0.07 yuan per share, totaling 65.18 million yuan, with the ex-dividend date set for October 17, 2025 [10] - Times New Material signed blade sales contracts totaling approximately 4.49 billion yuan, with 4.048 billion yuan from onshore wind projects and 442 million yuan from offshore projects [11][12] - Sunshine Nuohuo's new drug BTP4507 has received approval for clinical trials, targeting patients with poorly controlled primary hypertension [13] Group 4 - BGI Genomics expects to receive over 120 million USD in licensing fees for its CoolMPS sequencing technology [14] - Shandong Environmental Energy won a project for kitchen waste treatment in Xingtai, with an 8-year service period [15] - Kelun Pharmaceutical's product sac-TMT received approval for a third indication for treating advanced non-small cell lung cancer [16] Group 5 - Zhongzhi Holdings' major shareholder plans to publicly transfer 24.73% of the company's shares, which may lead to a change in control [17] - Yunnan Copper reported uncertainty regarding the future prices of cathode copper and gold, while maintaining normal operations [18] - Xiyang Co. announced that its tin smelting processing fees remain low despite rising tin prices [19] Group 6 - TEBIO's product Peginterferon has received approval for an additional indication for chronic hepatitis B treatment [20] - Yirui Biotech's major shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 3% due to personal funding needs [21] - China Nuclear Power reported a 14.95% year-on-year increase in power generation for the first three quarters, totaling 184.364 billion kWh [22] Group 7 - Shanghai Hejing's shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 1% due to personal funding needs [23] - Baili Tianheng's subsidiary triggered a milestone payment of 250 million USD from a collaboration with Bristol-Myers Squibb [24] - Hengdian East Magnetic expects a net profit increase of 50.1% to 65.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters [25]

10月10日，北方稀土、包钢股份两大稀土巨头宣布提价。此次上调后，2025年第四季度稀土精矿交易价 格相较于第三季度价格环比上涨约37%，创下自2023年第二季度以来的最高值。 中金公司指出，中国在稀土领域拥有领先地位，2024年开采份额占全球的61%，但更为重要的是90%以 上的精炼环节都集中在中国。稀土管制作为"先手"在4月就已经出现在"谈判桌"上，然而10月9日的一系 列举措更为严厉，不仅将在11月8日对超硬材料、部分稀土设备和原辅料、5种中重稀土、锂电池和人造 石墨负极材料实施出口管制，同时也将即日起对境外稀土出口和稀土技术实施管制。 新规要求跨国公司销售的商品中，如果含有中国稀土矿产占产品价值的0.1%或以上，则需要获得中国 政府的许可，这将使得跨国科技公司的关键产业链面临挑战。值得关注的是，商务部新闻发言人表示， 中国的出口管制不是禁止出口，只要是用于民用用途的、合规的出口申请，都可以获得批准，相关企业 无须担心。 东方财富指出，中国对稀土产业全方位管控后，全球稀土供给增长预期或下调，利好国内稀土产业高质 量发展。稀土永磁材料与人形机器人等产业密切相关，板块未来或受益于新兴产业的需求预期增长。 盘 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 3: Core View - The copper market is in a context of mine - end production cuts spreading to the smelting end. Short - term domestic demand is suppressed by high copper prices. The previous highs are expected to still suppress copper prices in the short term, but considering the continuous capital enthusiasm and long - term favorable factors in fundamentals and macro - aspects, copper prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate at high levels [10]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Both Shanghai copper and LME copper reached near previous highs and then fell back. Shanghai copper's total open interest increased by 13,557 lots. The contango structure of the nearby contracts narrowed. Spot copper prices rose by 940 to 86,680, and the spot premium rose by 5 to 20. The domestic - to - overseas price ratio dropped below 8, and the spot import loss exceeded 1,000 yuan [10]. - Market Outlook: Short - term price suppression from previous highs exists, but with continuous capital enthusiasm and long - term favorable factors, copper prices will oscillate at high levels [10]. Group 5: Industry News - Codelco's copper production in August dropped to 93,400 tons due to an accident at the El Teniente mine, which then stopped production [11]. - Zijin Copper's 200,000 - ton/year cathode copper expansion project entered the environmental assessment acceptance publicity stage. The Kamoa - Kakula project in Africa is about to be put into operation, and Zijin Copper plans to import anode plates from it [11]. - About 6.4 million tons of copper production capacity is stagnant or suspended due to ESG issues, equivalent to over 25% of global mineral production [11].

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government is in a shutdown due to a lack of agreement on a temporary funding bill, leading to a focus on private sector data as official reports are absent. The ADP employment numbers for September showed a larger-than-expected decline, indicating a continued weakening trend in employment. Manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded but remains in contraction territory, with new orders reflecting weak demand in the manufacturing sector. Non-manufacturing PMI is also not optimistic, with price components slightly rising due to tariff cost transmission [2][3] - In Europe and Japan, political instability is evident with the resignation of the French Prime Minister and the election of a right-leaning leader in Japan, creating uncertainty in the political landscape. The European Central Bank has no immediate plans for rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike process may slow down due to policy direction [3] - Domestic consumption has been boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption. However, the real estate market shows signs of weakness, particularly in first-tier cities, and the central bank is expected to adopt a more flexible and anticipatory policy approach in the fourth quarter [2][3] Fixed Income Research - In Q3 2025, the central bank maintained support for the market with significant net injections through reverse repos and MLF, keeping funding prices low. The issuance of government bonds decreased, but net financing remained high due to reduced maturity volumes. The bond market showed a bear steepening trend, with investor confidence in buying bonds remaining low [5][6] - Looking ahead to Q4, the bond market is expected to remain under pressure, but the situation is anticipated to improve compared to Q3. The key indicators to watch include PPI, which will influence bond pricing. The central bank's continued support and potential resumption of bond purchases are expected to stabilize interest rates [6][7] Industry Research Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday, but supply may also increase, making significant improvements in the fundamentals unlikely. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is a key event to monitor for industry developments [8] - For copper, global supply remains tight, providing support for prices, but general demand and high prices may pressure future price increases. Aluminum prices are expected to face limitations due to high costs affecting purchasing sentiment [8][9] - Gold prices are influenced by the U.S. entering a rate cut cycle and political risks from the government shutdown. If the shutdown is resolved and economic data remains strong, gold may face short-term corrections [9][10] - Lithium supply concerns have eased with approvals for resource reports, but short-term oversupply pressures may affect prices. Rare earth prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic export policies and overseas demand [9][10] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The recent World Lung Cancer Conference highlighted the R&D capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The National Medical Products Administration has initiated the 11th round of centralized drug procurement [12][13] - The medical care CPI for August showed a 0.9% year-on-year increase, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI decreased by 2.9%. Cumulative revenue and profit in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector have declined by 2.0% and 3.9%, respectively, in the first eight months of 2025 [13] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback in September, with a focus on the upcoming ESMO conference and third-quarter earnings reports. There is potential for improvement in fundamentals, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [14][15]

Macro Insights - The current round of tariffs by Trump is aimed at accumulating leverage for future negotiations, with agricultural products and rare earths being key pressure points for the U.S. [4] - The likelihood of a complete decoupling in U.S.-China trade is low, as neither side desires this outcome, but the process towards TACO (Trade Agreement with China) is expected to be complex due to structural differences in interests [4] Fixed Income - In the period from September 28 to October 11, 2025, a total of 119 credit bonds were issued, amounting to 141.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 75.82% compared to the previous period [5] - The total transaction volume of credit bonds was 855.28 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 47.12% [5] Banking Sector - The demand for credit remains weak, leading to a continued suppression of credit issuance, with social financing growth expected to decline from a high base [6] - M1 growth may continue to rise on a low base, while M2 growth is anticipated to decrease on a high base, indicating an increase in the degree of monetary activation [6] Rare Earth Industry - The supply of rare earths is further constrained by technical export controls, while demand remains resilient with potential new growth points [7] - The valuation of rare earths is supported by their inherent value as resources and strategic metals, leading to a bullish outlook for the rare earth permanent magnet sector [7] Copper Industry - China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.3% month-on-month in September, with potential pressure on copper prices due to Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 [8] - Despite tight supply, copper prices are expected to rise in the future as downstream demand from sectors like power grids and air conditioning rebounds in Q4 [8] Oil and Chemical Sector - OPEC+ is continuing to increase production, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased significantly following a ceasefire agreement [9] - As of October 10, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $62.09 and $58.24 per barrel, respectively, reflecting declines of 3.5% and 4.0% from the previous week [9] Basic Chemicals - The Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded for groundbreaking contributions in the field of Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs), indicating a promising outlook for industrialization in this area [10]

Group 1 - The overall situation between China and the US is expected to converge, with limited adverse effects on the market [3][15]. - China has taken proactive measures indicating a shift in power dynamics, enhancing national governance capabilities and boosting investor confidence in A-shares [4][16]. - The A-share market is predicted to experience short-term weakness but long-term strength, maintaining a sideways trend with limited downside in the short term [5][17]. Group 2 - Investment opportunities remain concentrated in the technology sector, particularly in computer/media and electronics/communication, with a focus on industrial software, foundational software, and AI applications [6][18]. - Strategic metals are favored, with gold expected to outperform rare earths and copper, driven by factors such as currency credit deterioration and demand from global infrastructure upgrades [7][19]. - The impact of tariff conflicts is deemed limited, as companies have already prepared for such risks [8][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent drop in copper and aluminum prices is a short-term liquidity shock due to renewed U.S. tariff threats, but the long-term upward trend for copper remains intact [5] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight to shortage due to frequent supply disruptions and the U.S. entering a monetary easing cycle [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper among others for potential investment opportunities [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which has raised market risk aversion [9] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.44% compared to the index's 0.37% [11][12] - The report notes that copper, magnetic materials, and rare earths performed well, while copper materials and cobalt lagged behind [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 27.81, with a weekly change of 2.98 [21] - The PB for the sector is 3.33, reflecting a change of 0.36 [21] 4. Copper - London copper prices increased by 1.89%, while Shanghai copper prices rose by 3.37% [26] - The report indicates that copper smelting margins are negative, with a loss of 2738 yuan/ton [26] 5. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 3.09%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.61% [38] - The report notes that aluminum smelting margins improved to 5133 yuan/ton [38] 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices remained stable at 73550 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices fell by 2.21% to 839 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium smelting margins are negative, with losses reported [74] 7. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 4.19% to 19.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices rose by 2.87% to 359000 yuan/ton [87] - The report highlights that cobalt supply may tighten due to new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [87]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism for copper prices to rise in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights that the recent trade conflicts have temporarily suppressed copper prices, but a recovery is expected as downstream demand rebounds in Q4 [1][4]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.3% month-on-month to 1.121 million tons, while year-on-year it increased by 11.6% [3][68]. - **Demand**: The cable industry's operating rate fell by 6.9 percentage points to 58.53% [3][76]. The report notes that air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 18%, 15%, and 9% for October, November, and December respectively [3][96]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper social inventory increased by 18.7% compared to September 29, 2025, while LME copper inventory decreased by 0.1% [2][24]. Price and Futures Summary - **Copper Prices**: As of October 10, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 85,910 RMB/ton, up 3.37% from September 30, while LME copper closed at 10,374 USD/ton, down 3.05% from October 3 [1][17]. - **Futures**: The active SHFE copper contract's open interest decreased by 5.6% week-on-week, with a total of 216,000 contracts [4][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].