Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For soda ash, the supply is greater than demand, which suppresses the price. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures on dips in the short - term [2]. - For glass, the supply has potential reduction factors, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell glass futures on rallies in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract is 1239 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the position is 1387072 lots, up 8 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 260443, down 10249; the exchange warehouse receipt is 8745 tons, down 1189 tons; the basis is - 72 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the spread between January and May contracts is - 92, down 1 [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main contract is 1113 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the position is 1695797 lots, down 111349 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 246153, up 68818; the exchange warehouse receipt is 423 tons, down 24 tons; the basis is - 69, down 18; the spread between January and May contracts is - 150, up 1 [2]. Spot Market - Soda ash: The price of North China heavy soda is 1174 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; Central China heavy soda is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China light soda is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda is 1145 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1044 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Central China glass sheets is 1120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash: The operating rate is 84.94%, up 0.01%; the enterprise inventory is 169.24 tons, down 0.97 tons [2]. - Glass: The operating rate is 76.35%, unchanged; the production capacity is 16.12 million tons/year, unchanged; the number of production lines is 226, unchanged; the enterprise inventory is 6661.3 ten - thousand weight boxes, up 233.7 ten - thousand weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Real estate: The cumulative new construction area is 453990000 square meters, up 55979900 square meters; the cumulative completion area is 311290000 square meters, up 34354600 square meters [2]. Industry News - Some soda ash plants are reducing production or running at a lower load, such as Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's 5 million tons/year plant, Chongqing Heyou Industry's 400000 tons/year plant, etc. Some are running stably, like Qinghai Wucai's 1.1 million tons/year plant [2].

Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The glass futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream sentiment was cautious, with mainly rigid - demand purchases. The supply - demand contradiction was significant, inventory pressure increased, and the market share of glass factories was squeezed by futures - cash traders. With the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the possibility of some production lines resuming, the glass price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market also had narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The supply - demand contradiction persisted, with an expected increase in supply, resilient rigid demand, and weakened speculative demand. De - stocking pressure would last throughout the year. Focus on supply changes and downstream demand [1]. Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The strategy is to expect a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. - Soda Ash: The strategy is to expect a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese: The silicomanganese futures market rose following the overall black - series market. There was strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market at the beginning of the week, with few spot quotations. Although losses of silicomanganese enterprises increased, production remained high, and de - stocking pressure was large. The price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. Attention should be paid to cost support and regional policies. The 6517 silicomanganese price in the northern market was 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures had a small increase after consolidation. The spot market sentiment was flat, with most cautious operations. Ferrosilicon enterprises had high production and high inventory, and demand was expected to weaken. Despite continuous losses, production was not effectively curbed, and the weak fundamental situation was difficult to reverse. The short - term price is expected to follow the sector. Monitor changes in coal and electricity prices at the cost end and regional policies. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [3]. Group 4: Strategies for Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese: The strategy is to expect a fluctuating trend [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The strategy is to expect a fluctuating trend [4]. Group 5: Graphs and Their Information - The report includes multiple graphs showing various aspects such as the spot and futures prices, cost, profit, and basis of steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), iron ore, coke, coking coal, soda ash, glass, power coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report maintains an optimistic view of the future of the black sector. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually easing macro - environment, but the real demand for steel is still weak in the short term. For specific varieties, each has different supply - demand situations and price trends, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as Sino - US negotiations and overseas macro - environment changes [1][4][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (1.772%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 128,819 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.953001 million lots, a decrease of 97,544 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3140 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3299 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (1.507%). The registered warehouse receipts were 104,667 tons, a decrease of 2398 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.48273 million lots, a decrease of 18,766 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive, and the prices of finished steel products fluctuated strongly. Sino - US relations were moderately eased, and the results of the trade negotiations needed to be focused on. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, the demand improved marginally, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability of steel mills declined significantly, and the supply - side pressure was reduced. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remained unchanged, but the real demand was still weak in the short term [1]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 786.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.01% (+15.50). The position changed by - 6796 lots to 558,800 lots. The weighted position was 944,200 lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.62% [3]. Strategy View - The market sentiment improved, and the iron ore futures rebounded at the technical support level. The overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase, and the recent arrival volume was at a low level. The daily average pig iron output dropped below 2.4 million tons. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The macro - environment had a certain positive impact, and the iron ore price fluctuated [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.52% to close at 5802 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 108 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) rose 0.40% to close at 5564 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 86 yuan/ton over the futures. The prices of both were in the shock range and needed to pay attention to the support level and the direction selection near the trend line [7]. Strategy View - The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee had positive statements, but there was no content exceeding market expectations. It was necessary to pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the APEC meeting. The fundamentals of the black sector were worrying due to high supply and low demand, and there was a risk of "negative feedback" in steel mills. The report was still not pessimistic about the black sector, and it was more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were likely to follow the black sector's trend [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The weighted position increased by 7556 lots to 435,130 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis was 335 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 115 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54,500 yuan/ton, up 4.20% (+2195). The weighted position increased by 19,404 lots to 251,023 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were flat, and the basis was - 1520 yuan/ton [11][14]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon was slightly up. The supply pressure continued, and the demand support weakened. The cost provided some support, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term. The polysilicon futures rose due to downstream buying and news rumors. The supply pressure might be alleviated marginally, and the supply - demand pattern might improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude was limited. It was necessary to pay attention to the implementation of news and control risks [12][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1095 yuan/ton, up 0.27% (+3). The prices in North China and Central China decreased. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million cases, up 2.3374 million cases (3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 36,011 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 73,350 lots. The main contract of soda ash closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+17). The price in Shahe increased. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (3.64%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing and the light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders increased 10,679 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 11,314 lots [17][19]. Strategy View - The glass market mainly traded low - price goods, and the demand recovery was slow. The raw material soda ash price provided support, and the glass price was expected to fluctuate widely. The soda ash supply was stable, the cost pressure increased, and the downstream demand was mainly low - price rigid demand. The soda ash price was expected to consolidate narrowly in the short term, and it was necessary to pay attention to the start - up of equipment and downstream procurement [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries [1][11][21]. Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year [1][4]. - Apparent steel consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [1][6]. - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [1]. Chemical and Textile Industries - The soda ash operating rate remained stable at 84.9%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11][12]. - PTA operating rate increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14]. - The operating rate for polyester filament remained stable at 91%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [11]. Construction Industry - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with the nationwide grinding operating rate increasing by 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4% [21][22]. - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [21][24]. - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased, up 1.2% week-on-week [21]. Glass and Asphalt Production - Glass production remained stable week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [31]. - Asphalt operating rate increased by 1.5% week-on-week [31]. Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a daily average transaction area down 5.7% week-on-week [40]. - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with rail freight volume up 1.8 percentage points to 1.5% [44][49]. - Passenger car retail sales decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59]. Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week [74]. - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.4% week-on-week [82][83].

Report on Industrial Silicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Industrial silicon supply increase pressures the price, but there is cost support below. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 2601 contract drops to around 8300 - 8500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 remained unchanged. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 decreased by 10.47%, the basis of SI4210 decreased by 64.29%, and the basis of Xinjiang decreased by 7.76% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 1.32%, 2512 - 2601 decreased by 50.00%, 2601 - 2602 decreased by 0.00%, 2602 - 2603 decreased by 300.00%, and 2603 - 2604 decreased by 20.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10%, Xinjiang's production increased by 19.78%, Yunnan's production increased by 2.41%, and Sichuan's production decreased by 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 10.86%, Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 22.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 11.99%, and Sichuan's decreased by 1.47%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60%, and industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased by 0.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 0.58%, Sichuan's increased by 1.00%, social inventory decreased by 0.53%, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.29%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.23% [1]. Report on Polysilicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and production control, as well as whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. After the sharp rise in futures, the discount is repaired, and there is a need to pay attention to the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 325.19%. The average price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers decreased by 0.59%, and the average price of N - type 210R silicon wafers decreased by 2.16% [2]. - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: The main contract increased by 4.20%. The spread of the current month - the first consecutive contract decreased by 16.92%, the first - the second consecutive contract decreased by 61.90%, the second - the third consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, the third - the fourth consecutive contract increased by 140.00%, the fourth - the fifth consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, and the fifth - the sixth consecutive contract increased by 140.00% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production increased by 2.65%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.84% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, imports increased by 28.46%, exports decreased by 28.16%, and net exports decreased by 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 5.37%, imports decreased by 17.96%, exports remained unchanged, and net exports increased by 1.96%. Silicon wafer demand increased by 4.64% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.98%, silicon wafer inventory increased by 6.70%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1.91% [2]. Report on Logs Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The log futures 2601 contract price is at a relatively low level. Although there is import cost support, the market is pessimistic due to expected supply increase and weak demand. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 27, the prices of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 all decreased. The prices of small, medium, and large radiata pine in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply**: From October 27 - November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 4 to 16, a week - on - week increase of 33%, and the arrival volume increased by 8.5 million cubic meters to about 53.3 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 19% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory was 284 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average log出库 volume was 6.44 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.12 million cubic meters from the previous week [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for short - selling opportunities on subsequent rebounds. For glass, although the previous decline has priced in the negative factors, and the recent news has boosted the market, it is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market and close previous short positions [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, the prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China decreased. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash operating rate increased by 3.37%, weekly production increased by 3.37%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 5.84%, soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74%, soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.05%, and glass factory soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Report on Natural Rubber Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In the short term, the improvement of the macro - environment and fundamentals has led to a rebound in rubber prices. In the future, pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price is expected to run around 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the prices of Yunnan Guofu SCRMF, Thai standard mixed rubber, natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna, and raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged. The basis of whole milk decreased by 7.69%, the non - standard price difference decreased by 13.43%, the FOB middle price of cup rubber decreased by 100.00%, the FOB middle price of glue decreased by 100.00%, and the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.47% [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.00%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 18.18%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 7.14% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 0.95%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 1.06%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and in September, tire exports decreased by 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 14.41%, and in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber STR20 in Thailand increased by 1.87%, the production cost of RSS3 increased by 0.50%, the production profit of STR20 decreased by 305.56%, and the production profit of RSS3 increased by 2.83% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4.07%, natural rubber factory futures inventory in SHFE increased by 6.28%, and the出库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao bonded warehouse decreased [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the alarming trend of German companies increasingly relocating investments overseas, with over €200 billion leaving Germany annually over the past five years, primarily due to high energy costs, external competition, and U.S. tariff policies [1][6][7]. Group 1: Investment Trends - 70% of energy-intensive companies in Germany are shifting investments abroad, with 31% actively moving production outside Europe and 42% preferring to invest in other European countries rather than Germany [1][4]. - The total outflow of investments from Germany has reached €34.52 billion over the past decades, with an average annual outflow exceeding €200 billion [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - The German economy is facing stagnation, with GDP expected to remain flat from the end of 2021 to the end of 2024, primarily due to a 4.2% decline in exports from 2022 to 2024 [2][3]. - The chemical giant Bayer reported a sixfold increase in net losses in Q2, amounting to €199 million, reflecting the broader struggles within the German industrial sector [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Investment Decisions - High energy costs driven by EU climate policies and rising carbon certificate prices are significant burdens for companies, leading to calls for the cancellation of CO2 fees [4][5]. - Political uncertainty and a lack of confidence in government reforms are causing businesses to hesitate in investing domestically, with 80% of surveyed companies expressing pessimism about improvements in the business environment [4][5]. Group 4: Global Competition - The U.S. tariff policies under the Trump administration are exerting additional pressure on Germany's energy-intensive industries, with companies like Schott adjusting their investment strategies to favor locations outside Germany [5][8]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with emerging markets like China and India becoming more attractive for investment, as evidenced by BASF's new production facility in Guangdong, China [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries. Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year with a 2.6% increase compared to the previous week [4][5] - Steel apparent consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [6][11] - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [11] Sector Performance - The petrochemical and consumer sectors showed improvement, with soda ash operating rates stable at 84.9%, and a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11] - PTA operating rate increased by 0.4% to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate improved by 1% to 73.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point to -5.7% [11] Construction Industry - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with grinding operating rates up 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points to -4.8% [21][22] - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points to -9.3% [21][24] - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased by 1.2% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points to 0.7% [21] Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a 5.7% week-on-week drop in average daily transaction area [40] - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with a 19.6% rise in truck traffic [44][49] - Passenger car retail sales remained high, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59] Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week, while fruit, pork, and egg prices decreased [74] - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China industrial price index rising by 0.4% week-on-week [82][83]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries [1][11][21]. Industrial Production Tracking - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year [1][4]. - Apparent steel consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [1][6]. - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [1]. Sector Performance - The petrochemical and consumer sectors showed improvement, with soda ash operating rates stable at 84.9%, and a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11]. - PTA operating rates increased by 0.4% to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14]. - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate improved by 1% to 73.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point to -5.7% [11]. Construction Industry Insights - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with the nationwide grinding operating rate increasing by 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4% [21]. - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [21][24]. - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased, up 1.2% week-on-week, but down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 0.7% [21]. Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a daily average transaction area down 5.7% week-on-week [40]. - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with rail freight volume up 1.8 percentage points to 1.5% [44]. - Passenger car retail sales decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59]. Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week, while fruit, pork, and egg prices declined [74]. - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 0.4% week-on-week [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly, and will fluctuate later due to the expected reduction in crude steel production despite the lack of substantial improvement in downstream consumption [3]. - The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. - Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. - Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of various steel contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up from 3046 yuan/ton. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils also generally increased slightly [4][9][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly in the short - term and then fluctuate due to the expected reduction in crude steel production and the lack of improvement in downstream consumption [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the 01 contract closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton. The basis of each contract changed slightly [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The average daily hot - metal output decreased, the 45 - port inventory increased, and the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased [28]. - **Market Outlook**: The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the coking coal and coke basis and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was 204 yuan/ton. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed to some extent [40][41]. - **Market Outlook**: Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. Ferroalloys - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the basis and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese 01 - 05 spread was - 42 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [51][53]. - **Market Outlook**: Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1337 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts also changed [61]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts increased slightly compared to October 24. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [88]. - **Market Outlook**: Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87].