黑色建材日报 2025-08-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3231 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。当日注册仓单 93491 吨, 环 比增加 4235 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.8167 万手，环比减少 24402 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3440 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 70915 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 142.8587 万手，环比减少 31588 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3470 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The long - term view on oil prices is bearish, with Brent expected to trade in the range of $66.5 - 68 per barrel in the short term. The overall supply - demand pressure for plastics and PP remains large, and their prices are expected to be weak and volatile. PVC and caustic soda also face supply - demand pressure, and short positions are recommended. For some products like fuel oil, a wait - and - see approach is advised, while for others, different trading strategies such as short - selling at high prices are proposed according to their supply - demand situations [2][22][24] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 contract closed at $64.35, down $0.81 per barrel (-1.24%); Brent2510 contract closed at $66.89, down $0.75 per barrel (-1.11%); SC main contract 2509 fell 4.9 to 504.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 6.2 to 498 yuan per barrel in the night session. The Brent main - second line spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: US - Russia negotiations are progressing, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and may impose further tariffs on China. Some Fed officials believe in interest rate cuts due to economic and labor market conditions. EIA data shows a decline in US crude and refined product inventories [1][2] - **Logic Analysis**: Long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing risk of US economic weakness and sufficient supply elasticity, with an expectation of future supply - demand surplus. Brent is expected to trade in the $66.5 - 68 per barrel range in the short term [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Gasoline crack spread is weak, diesel crack spread is stable; Options: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3543 points (+0.40%) in the night session, BU2512 closed at 3448 points (+0.207%). On August 6, asphalt spot prices were 3530 - 3970 in Shandong, 3650 - 3800 in East China, and 3520 - 3600 in South China. The benchmark prices of refined products in Shandong changed, with 92 gasoline down 17 to 7727 yuan per ton, 0 diesel down 14 to 6563 yuan per ton, and 3B petroleum coke up 60 to 2880 yuan per ton [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices fell 5 yuan per ton due to slow demand release, sufficient supply, and weak market confidence. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable due to rainy weather and falling oil prices. In South China, prices were stable with some trade - offs between weak demand and reduced local supply [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and near - term demand is mediocre. The asphalt market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand release in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term and decline in the medium term. Asphalt prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the main BU contract trading in the 3500 - 3650 range [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: Wait - and - see [5] 3. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2836 (+0.60%) in the night session, LU10 closed at 3558 (+0.65%). In the Singapore paper market, high - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 5.0 to 5.3 dollars per ton, and low - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 4.3 to 3.5 dollars per ton [5] - **Related News**: Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans to shut down its RFCC unit for 15 - day maintenance starting from August 10. On August 6, there were 3 transactions of high - sulfur fuel oil 380 in the Singapore spot window, and no transactions for high - sulfur fuel oil 180 and low - sulfur fuel oil [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced. Demand for high - sulfur feedstock is increasing, while seasonal power - generation demand is declining. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks a specific driver [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - economic disturbances; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see, pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot [8] 4. PX (Para - xylene) - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6794 (+60/+0.89%), and remained unchanged in the night session. The September MOPJ was estimated at $579 per ton CFR. PX prices rose to $844 per ton, up $5 from the previous day. Two September Asian spot transactions were at 848 and 849 respectively. The PXN was $265 per ton, up $6 per ton [8][9] - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales rate of 71% by 3:00 pm [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to return in August as some refineries resume production or increase their loads. Downstream PTA plants are reducing production, and the overall order volume is weak, so PX prices are expected to face pressure [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation [10] 5. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+42/+0.90%), and dropped 10 to 4714 (-0.21%) in the night session. In the spot market, August - end contracts were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, with a price negotiation range of 4650 - 4720. The September - mid contracts were traded at par with the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 09 - 21 [10] - **Related News**: Similar to PX, the sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed certain trends. A South China PTA factory with a total capacity of 235 million tons cut production by 20% [10] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is decreasing as some PTA plants cut production or plan maintenance. Downstream demand lacks upward momentum, so PTA prices are expected to face pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [11][12] 6. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4414 (+15/+0.34%), and rose 17 to 4431 (+0.39%) in the night session. The current spot basis was a premium of 79 - 82 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4493 - 4496 yuan per ton. The September - end futures basis was a premium of 76 - 78 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4490 - 4492 yuan per ton [13] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were as described before. A 90 - million - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore is under maintenance for about 45 days, and a 55 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down again without a clear restart time [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased recently. Supply is expected to increase as some plants restart or postpone their maintenance. The supply - demand balance is expected to weaken as domestic and foreign plants resume production [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [13][14] 7. Short - fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6414 (+32/+0.50%) during the day session, and dropped 14 to 6400 (-0.22%) in the night session. In the spot market, the prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable, and downstream customers purchased on - demand [14][15] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed similar trends [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber futures rebounded with raw materials. The processing fee stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16] 8. PR (Bottle - chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 main contract closed at 5936 (+24/+0.41%), and dropped 2 to 5934 (-0.03%) in the night session. In the spot market, the polyester bottle - chip market had good transactions, with some plants having large - volume sales. August - October orders were mostly traded at 5870 - 5970 yuan per ton ex - factory [16] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly increasing [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The bottle - chip futures rose with polyester raw material futures. The processing fee rebounded and stabilized. Most major plants will maintain their production cuts in August, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16][17] 9. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6246 (+26/+0.42%) during the day session, and rose 24 to 6270 (+0.38%) in the night session. EB2509 main contract closed at 7285 (+3/+0.04%) during the day session, and rose 29 to 7314 (+0.40%) in the night session. In the spot market, the negotiation range of pure benzene in East China was 6030 - 6060 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The negotiation ranges of styrene in Jiangsu were 7310 - 7380 for spot, 7360 - 7405 for August - end, and 7385 - 7435 for September - end [18] - **Related News**: On August 6, 2025, the port trade inventory of pure benzene in East China was 15.2 million tons, down 1 million tons from July 30 (-6.17%), and up 204% year - on - year. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased by 1.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons. A 30 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Tangshan Xuyang restarted on August 6, and an 80 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Guangdong Jieyang plans to shut down for two - week maintenance starting from September 5. A 67 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Jingbosidarei started producing qualified products on August 6 and is operating at a stable load [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, with a de - stocking expectation in the third quarter. Styrene supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Long pure benzene, short styrene; Options: Sell both call and put options [21] 10. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices mostly rose slightly. In the PP spot market, the prices in different regions had different changes [21] - **Related News**: On August 6, the PE maintenance ratio was 8.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, and the linear production ratio was 40.3%, down 1.3 percentage points. The PP maintenance ratio was 15.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, and the拉丝 production ratio was 33.9%, up 4 percentage points [21] - **Logic Analysis**: New polyolefin capacities are being put into production, and there is still capacity - expansion pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and there is no obvious factor to improve the supply - demand situation. So, the overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new plant start - ups and macro - policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [22] 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: In the PVC spot market, prices rose, but the trading was light. In the caustic soda spot market, the prices in different regions were mostly stable [22] - **Related News**: A Shandong alumina factory lowered the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan per ton. Jinling's caustic soda prices decreased [24] - **Logic Analysis**: For PVC, the supply is expected to increase as new plants are planned to start production, and the demand is weak, so the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. For caustic soda, the supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be bearish [24][25] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions for both PVC and caustic soda, and pay attention to subsequent policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [25][26] 12. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1271 yuan per ton (+18/1.4%), and dropped 10 to 1261 (-0.8%) in the night session. The SA9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [26] - **Related News**: As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 185.18 million tons, up 5.60 million tons (+3.12%) from the previous Thursday. Some plants had production changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash futures price strengthened due to the strong coking coal futures price and rising coal prices. The weekly production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand is weak, but the price is expected to be supported by cost factors in the second half of the year [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile and bullish; Arbitrage: Consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [27][28] 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1083 yuan per ton (+6/0.56%), and dropped 8 to 1075 (-0.74%) in the night session. The 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [28] - **Related News**: The domestic float - glass market prices were stable or decreased, and the trading was lackluster [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The glass futures price was affected by the strong coking coal futures price. The factory's sales weakened, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be determined by fundamentals in the second half of the year, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile; Arbitrage: Take profit on the glass 9 - 1 reverse spread, and consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [31] 14. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2395 (-2/-0.08%) after night - session trading. In the spot market, the prices in different regions varied [31] - **Related News**: As of August

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on price fluctuations in the energy and black upstream sectors, as well as policy implementation in high - tech and transportation infrastructure industries [1][2]. - It also provides an overview of the current situation in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream of different industries, including price changes,开工率, and sales volume [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: High - temperature and high - humidity weather has led to a continuous increase in the national power consumption level. From August 4th to 6th, the power load in the operating area of the State Grid Corporation reached a record high of 1.233 billion kilowatts, an increase of 53 million kilowatts compared to last year's peak of 1.18 billion kilowatts. Shanghai has issued a development plan for the embodied intelligence industry, aiming to achieve more than 20 core algorithm and technology breakthroughs by 2027, with the core industry scale exceeding 50 billion yuan [1]. - **Service Industry**: Three departments including the Ministry of Transport have issued a plan for the new round of rural road improvement, aiming to complete 300,000 kilometers of new and reconstructed rural roads by 2027 [2]. 3.2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices have dropped significantly recently. Egg prices and glass prices have also declined [3]. - **Mid - stream**: The operating rate of PTA has decreased, while that of pig products has increased slightly [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three - year low. Domestic film box office has increased during the summer vacation [3]. 3.3. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides credit spread data for various industries as of August 7th, showing different trends in each industry's credit spreads compared to the previous year, the first quarter, one month ago, and last week [46]. 3.4. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The report presents price data for multiple industries as of August 6th, including agriculture, non - ferrous metals, black metals, non - metals, energy, chemicals, and real estate. Most prices have shown a downward trend, with some exceptions such as coal prices [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - Market expectations have boosted steel prices, leading to a slight rebound, while glass and soda ash are oscillating, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy prices are rising [1][3] - Glass supply lacks policy - driven contraction, and real - estate drags down demand. Although speculative demand has increased and inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. In the long run, supply - demand remains loose [1] - Soda ash production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, but may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase [1] - Silicomanganese production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [3] - Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Summary by Category Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.93%. Downstream procurement is cautious [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply shows no policy - driven contraction, real - estate drags down demand. Speculative demand has increased, and factory inventories are decreasing but remain high. Market trading sentiment has cooled after important meetings. In the long run, supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to the delivery of the 09 contract and industry capacity reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 1.78%. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash has slightly increased, and downstream buyers purchase based on low - price demand [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, and may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the supply side [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market was strong, with the main contract rising 4.27%. Factory开工 enthusiasm is high, and prices have been slightly adjusted. The price in the northern market is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is about 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly to a medium level in recent years. Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased. Attention should be paid to inventory and ore shipments [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market was boosted by the black - metal sector and oscillated upward. Market sentiment has improved, and prices are stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area is 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production is gradually recovering, apparent demand has decreased, enterprises have profits, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long run, capacity is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the news of coal mine production restrictions fermented again, driving up the futures prices. The fundamentals of the black industry have not changed significantly, and the inventory pressure at each link is not high. Before the important event, the production restriction time is approaching, and steel prices have strong support. Coal and coke supplies have not fully recovered, and inventories are being depleted, making prices susceptible to positive news. There may also be continuous influence from macro - positive news. Before the spot pressure appears, prices have room for further rebound. The futures prices have high volatility, and capital behavior dominates the market. It is recommended to wait and avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased as expected. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased again, but steel production in some areas decreased due to rainfall, though it remained high year - on - year. Due to low arrivals and high demand, iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in port congestion, and at factories decreased. After the macro - sentiment cooled, iron ore prices dropped slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2]. Carbon Element - The overall supply is temporarily stable. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week exceeded 1,200 vehicles, reaching a high for the year, and imports remained high. Coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Affected by the recent decline in futures prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders increased, and the spot market sentiment cooled. However, upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The manganese ore market has more wait - and - see sentiment, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high, so the downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, as manufacturers' profitability improves, the复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the current supply - demand relationship is healthy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3]. Glass - In the off - season, glass demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream. After the futures prices dropped, the spot market sentiment cooled, middle - stream sales increased, and upstream production and sales declined significantly. On the supply side, two production lines are yet to produce glass, and one line has been cold - repaired, with the overall daily melting expected to remain stable. Upstream inventories have decreased slightly, and there are no prominent contradictions, but market sentiment fluctuates a lot. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, but it may recur. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term both in futures and spot [3][6]. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After this round of negative feedback was triggered, prices dropped rapidly in the short term and are at a discount to the spot. It is expected to oscillate in the future. In the long run, the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the steel and coal industries remains high. Driven by cost, the futures prices are firm. Spot steel sales are average. Last week, some steel mills had short - term maintenance and iron - water transfer, resulting in a decrease in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. In the off - season, affected by typhoons, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, and inventories increased slightly; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased, and inventories continued to accumulate. The supply - demand of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little, and the inventory of the five major steel products increased. Currently, steel inventories are low, and there are continuous production - restriction news before the parade. The fundamentals may improve, and with strong cost support, the futures prices are likely to rise. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly after the typhoon. The small - sample steel enterprise's iron - water production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter increased, remaining high year - on - year. The possibility of short - term production reduction due to profit reasons is small. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased compared to last week. The demand for iron ore is high, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion. The fundamental negative driving factors are limited, and prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The output of rebar decreased slightly, inventories increased, and the apparent demand decreased, in line with off - season characteristics. In terms of supply, the market sentiment is optimistic this week, and the arrival volume of scrap steel has been decreasing. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of electric furnaces was high in some areas due to high profits in the early stage. Although the iron - water production of blast furnaces decreased, the price difference between iron and scrap narrowed, increasing the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long and short - process production increased significantly. This week, the arrival volume increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly, with the available inventory days remaining slightly below normal. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both strong, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Prices are expected to follow the finished steel [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices followed coking coal and oscillated strongly. On the spot side, the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased. After the fifth round of price increases was fully implemented, the profitability of coke enterprises improved, and production started to pick up, with coke production remaining stable. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing, and the iron - water production remains high. Upstream coke enterprises have smooth sales, and inventories are continuously decreasing. Middle - stream futures and spot traders are gradually releasing supplies, and the arrival of coke at downstream steel mills has improved. Currently, the supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and prices still have short - term support. The fundamentals of coke are healthy. In the short term, with high iron - water production, its own driving force is weak, and prices are expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: On the futures side, due to continuous news of over - production inspections at coal mines, the supply recovery is slow, and market sentiment has been boosted, with prices trending strongly. On the spot side, prices remained stable. On the supply side, the output of some coal mines is limited due to underground factors, and some coal mines have reduced their production in the second half of the year due to over - production inspections. The overall supply is slowly recovering. On the import side, the import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous round of concentrated purchases, downstream enterprises are now purchasing on - demand. Upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. Affected by over - production inspections, the supply recovery of coking coal is expected to be slow. With poor supply expectations, market sentiment has improved, and prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Driven by the strong coking coal futures prices, the central price of manganese silicon futures increased yesterday. On the spot side, manufacturers are more willing to hold prices, and spot prices have been continuously adjusted upwards. On the cost side, coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The futures prices of manganese silicon are rising, and the overseas quotes are increasing, making manganese ore quotes firmer. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. However, as the industry's profitability improves, the manufacturers'复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. Currently, the market fundamentals have limited contradictions, and in the short term, manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the difficulty of market inventory depletion will increase, and the upside potential of prices is not optimistic [14]. - **Silicon Iron**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures prices continued to be strong, and the market's expectation of the "anti - involution" policy increased, driving up the silicon iron futures prices. On the spot side, the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity prices have increased significantly, and with the strong futures prices, spot prices have also increased. On the supply side, as the industry's profitability improves, manufacturers' enthusiasm for复产 increases, and the output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. On the demand side, steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. In the magnesium market, due to tight supplies, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but the market trading atmosphere has cooled, and the game between upstream and downstream continues. Currently, the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and in the short term, prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap may be filled, and the upside potential of prices should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices are expected to gradually return to the real - trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of the incremental situation. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side to the prices of finished products [3]. - Short - term commodity prices may be adjusted. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate with the prices of downstream products and mainly oscillate. The market divergence remains, and risk control should be noted [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. In the long - term, the demand of the black sector will weaken marginally [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, although the short - term price is repeated, the high - point may have appeared. For polysilicon, the price is in high - level oscillation, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely. Caution is required when participating [15][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, if there are substantial policies in real estate, the futures price may continue to rise. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long - term. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3234 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.030%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 893 tons to 89256 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 56263 lots to 1.652569 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3451 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.17%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 55998 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 1559 lots to 1.460175 million lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The real - estate policy remains basically unchanged. The export volume has decreased significantly this week. The speculative demand for rebar has decreased, and there is inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils has increased slightly, with a rapid increase in production and a small inventory accumulation. The inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 794.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50% (- 4.00), with a position change of - 26208 lots to 358300 lots. The weighted position was 942500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 776 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.13 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.65% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased. The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly. The profitability of steel mills is still at a high level, and the demand support remains [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 1.30% at 6096 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 94 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 3.36% at 5908 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 142 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Manganese silicon is in an over - supplied industrial pattern, with marginal weakening of future demand and potential downward adjustment of costs. Ferrosilicon also faces the risk of weakening demand and a significant decline in pig iron output in the future [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8700 yuan/ton, up 2.47% (+ 210). The weighted contract position increased by 21227 lots to 522034 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 51345 yuan/ton, up 2.02% (+ 1015). The weighted contract position increased by 5970 lots to 387318 lots [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, the supply is in excess, and the effective demand is insufficient. The price may be repeated in the short - term. For polysilicon, the price is affected by the expected capacity integration plan and the enterprise's price - holding strategy, and it is in high - level oscillation. The inventory may accumulate slightly in August [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1181 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 239.7 million weight boxes to 5949.9 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. The spot price of soda ash was 1320 yuan, up 70 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 56000 tons to 1.8518 million tons, an increase of 3.12% [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, it depends on real - estate policies. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are supply - demand contradictions in the long - term [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bearish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ (Predicted to have a bullish trend, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (The short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable, it is recommended to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (Predicted to have a clear bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and provides corresponding investment ratings based on these factors [1][2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated around the 5 - day moving average. Low prices, improved downstream product profits, and reduced supply due to unexpected shutdowns of local PDH plants supported the price [2] - Polyolefin futures had a narrow - range intraday fluctuation. Polyethylene's short - term production is expected to increase, with both supply and demand rising recently. Polypropylene's prices are stable, and some offers are tentatively raised, but downstream procurement is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rebounded. Domestic supply increased, demand was weak, but port inventory decreased. There is an expected improvement in supply - demand in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter [3] - Styrene futures prices declined. The expected output of a new plant may have a negative impact, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weak [3] Polyester - PTA prices rebounded. New plant production and increased output from existing plants pressured the supply, but production cuts may boost the market. PX may face demand decline if PTA production cuts increase [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded. Supply is expected to continue to rise, and there is an expected increase in demand [5] - Short fiber prices followed the raw materials and sales improved. There is limited new capacity this year, and the peak - season demand is expected to boost the industry [5] - Bottle chip's low - start operation led to stable inventory, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose slightly. Coastal olefin plants have low operation rates, and ports are expected to accumulate inventory. In the long - term, the approaching peak - season demand should be monitored [6] - Urea market sentiment cooled. The Indian tender price boosted the spot market, but short - term supply - demand is loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fluctuated strongly. Cost support increased, but supply increased and demand was weak, so short - term prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices fluctuated weakly. Comprehensive profit improved, but long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated. High - price resistance led to a downward shift. Supply is high, and the long - term market is weak, but prices are unlikely to fall below the previous low [8] - Glass prices fluctuated. Mid - stream sales led to a decline in spot prices, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Industry Overview Upstream - Egg prices in the agricultural sector have declined significantly year-on-year [2] - Glass prices in the black sector have dropped [2] Midstream - The operating rate of PTA in the chemical industry has recently decreased [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three-year low [4] - The box office of summer movies has increased [4] Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the implementation of anti-involution policies. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products has issued an initiative to photovoltaic enterprises, including adhering to fair competition, controlling production capacity expansion, focusing on technological innovation, and strengthening self-discipline [1] - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the update of parenting policies. The State Council General Office has issued an opinion on gradually implementing free preschool education, and from the fall semester of 2025, the tuition fees for children in the first year of public kindergartens will be waived [1] Other Information Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries have different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry has decreased to 45.97 BP, and that of the real estate industry has decreased to 84.61 BP [47] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various industries have different changes. For example, the spot price of eggs in the agricultural sector has increased by 7.35%, while the spot price of glass in the black sector has decreased by 3.86% [48]