Gold Market - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September unexpectedly increased by 119,000, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.3%, marking a four-year high [1] - The largest gold ETF reported a reduction of 4.29 tons in holdings on November 20, indicating a lack of bullish sentiment in the short-term gold market [1] - Analyst Chen Yu believes that the resilient U.S. job market may suppress expectations for future Fed rate cuts, putting short-term pressure on gold prices [1] - Despite high U.S. debt and declining dollar credibility, gold prices are expected to have long-term upward potential [1] - Technical analysis shows a weak short-term outlook for gold, with prices failing to break above the 62-day moving average and a likelihood of further declines [1] Oil Market - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia's oil production forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 510 million tons, unaffected by Western sanctions [2] - The potential for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with negotiations expected to conclude by the end of November, may exert downward pressure on oil prices [2] - The current risk of oversupply in the oil market suggests that oil prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term [3] - Technical indicators show a bearish outlook for oil prices, with the 20-day moving average and 62-day moving average forming a death cross [3] U.S. Dollar Index - Recent U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with job growth but a rising unemployment rate, which may hinder further Fed rate cuts [4] - There is significant division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with a general hawkish tone suggesting a cooling of rate cut expectations for December [4] - The dollar is likely to maintain a strong position due to these factors and potential further depreciation of the yen [4] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish short-term outlook for the dollar, with prices above the 20-day and 62-day moving averages [5] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown some rebound in the past two trading days but is at risk of further decline, potentially forming a "downward three methods" pattern [6] - The index is currently trading below the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term bearish sentiment [6] Copper Market - The copper market experienced a slight rebound but remains below the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for further declines [7] - Attention is on the resistance level at $4.99 for any potential upward movement [7] Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2% [9] - Ukrainian President Zelensky received a U.S. peace plan draft and is expected to consult with Trump soon [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains largely unchanged, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. Investors are advised to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase allocations appropriately if there is a certain degree of correction in the fourth quarter [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The core drivers of major assets this week are the "anticipatory overshoot" after the restart of the US government and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. After the release of the "delayed" US September non - farm payroll data, both non - farm employment and the unemployment rate exceeded expectations, but the market seemed to focus on the weaker unemployment data, causing US stocks to open high and close low with a significant decline [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, economic data continued the weak and stable trend, and the boost of incremental policies to the fundamentals was not yet evident. Affected by factors such as the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak fund arrival, rhythmic decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow slightly but remained resilient. The 500 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan local government's unused quota withdrawn in October are expected to take effect as early as the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year in October, and the financial data generally met expectations [8]. 2. Asset Performance 2.1 Financial Assets - **Stock Index Futures**: Include CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures. They showed varying degrees of decline on a daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly basis, but had significant increases this year, with increases ranging from 12.12% to 24.19% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures also had different performance trends. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a 0.00% daily change, and a - 0.50% change this year [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index, euro - US dollar, US dollar - yen, and US dollar central parity rate all had their own change rates, with the US dollar - yen having a 0.7% increase this year [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, and 10Y US treasury bond yield had corresponding changes, for example, the 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by about 45 bp this year [3]. 2.2 Industry Indexes - **Domestic Industries**: Industries such as construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals showed different degrees of increase, while industries like food and beverage, and computers had varying degrees of decline. For example, the non - ferrous metals industry had a 33.74% increase this year, while the food and beverage industry had a - 4.32% change [4]. 2.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil, ICE Brent crude oil, and other energy commodities had different performance. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil had an 18.24% decline this year, while NYMEX natural gas had a 28.59% increase [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and COMEX silver both had significant increases this year, with increases of 54.46% and 71.92% respectively [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper and LME aluminum also showed different trends, with LME copper having a 21.69% increase this year [4]. 2.4 Domestic Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe route had a - 27.74% change this year [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver in the domestic market also had different performance, with silver having a 61.31% increase this year [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals had their own trends, for example, copper had a 16.75% increase this year [5]. 3. Sector and Variety Analysis 3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is in a state of "trading time for space" with a dumbbell - style allocation transition. Facing the problem of insufficient incremental funds, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The strategy is mainly based on covered call defense. Due to the possible insufficient liquidity in the options market, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The impact of the capital market may be limited. Affected by factors such as unexpected incremental policies, unexpected stock market rises, and unexpected monetary policies, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Affected by factors such as the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe Route**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, the loading is under pressure and lacks upward momentum. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, the spot price is firm, and the trading volume is marginally weakening. Pay attention to factors such as the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron ore production, and the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Coke**: The profit has been repaired, and the spot price is temporarily stable. Affected by factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: After the restart of the US government, the copper price is consolidating at a high level. Affected by factors such as supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, and unexpected Fed policies, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price has corrected. Affected by factors such as macro - risks, supply disruptions, and unexpected demand, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [9]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12]. - **LPG**: The refinery's external supply volume has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Affected by cost - related factors such as crude oil and overseas propane, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12]. 3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The strength of US soybean oil has boosted the domestic soybean and palm oil markets. Affected by factors such as US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [12]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of state reserves release is strong, and the futures market has reduced positions and declined. Affected by factors such as weather, domestic demand, and trade frictions, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12].

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increase, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and slight inventory accumulation under new capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weak demand except for agricultural film. The cost side has fluctuating crude oil and strong coal, and PDH profits continue to weaken [2]. Crude Oil - The US proposed a new plan to restart the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation, causing geopolitical premiums to decline and oil prices to fall. OPEC+ is continuously increasing production, and US crude oil production is at a new high, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern and significant pressure on oil prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to find support at $60 per barrel [3]. Natural Rubber - Supply: Domestic production areas are entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and rainfall in overseas areas keeps raw material prices high. However, the arrival of overseas ships is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the market mainly focuses on digesting channel inventory. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The market is in an overall surplus situation. Supply is high, and downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and it is recommended to wait for rebounds to short [7]. - Glass: Recently, prices have been falling, and low prices have driven better sales. However, there are still production line restarts in the future, which will increase supply pressure. In the short term, there is some rigid demand support, but in the long term, demand will shrink, and prices will be under pressure [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand situation is under pressure. The main downstream, alumina, has reduced purchasing enthusiasm. Although there is some supply reduction in the East China region, the long - term supply - demand pressure remains large, and prices are expected to be weak [8]. - PVC: The spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply is still at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The export situation is not optimistic, and the supply - demand surplus pattern continues, with prices expected to remain at the bottom [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Asian and domestic PX loads have decreased, but supply remains high. Demand is weak, and although there are some supporting factors, the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - PTA: After the maintenance of some devices, the basis has strengthened slightly. The supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively balanced in November and more relaxed from December to the first quarter. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply remains high, and overseas shipments will be concentrated in November, leading to inventory accumulation and a weak basis. It is under pressure above, and corresponding option and spread strategies are recommended [9]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price drive is limited, and processing fees are expected to be compressed [9]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply changes little, and demand support is insufficient. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal accumulation period. The processing fee will follow the raw material cost [9]. Methanol - In the inland market, production will continue to increase, and marginal devices are in a loss state. In the port market, Iranian gas restrictions are postponed, and shipments are accelerating, resulting in high inventory and weak prices. The core contradiction is high port inventory, and the "weak reality" logic will continue [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Although there are maintenance expectations for some devices, imports are expected to be high, and overall supply may be relatively loose. Demand support is limited, and port inventory is accumulating. The supply pressure is large, and the short - term BZ2603 contract is recommended to be observed [13]. - Styrene: The supply - demand situation has improved, with export expectations and falling port inventory. However, profit recovery may lead to delayed maintenance and new device trials, and downstream EPS demand is expected to weaken, so the upside space is limited [13]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have different price changes, and there are also changes in spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01. Spot prices of PP and LLDPE in some regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased to varying degrees. PE and PP device and downstream weighted开工率 also show different trends [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices have declined, and there are also changes in spreads such as Brent - WTI and SC - Brent. Product oil prices and spreads have also changed [3]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices of various natural rubber products have changed, and there are also changes in monthly spreads such as 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in September in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China has changed. Tire production, export, and import data in October have also changed, as well as开工率 data [5]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory have increased, while some出库 and入库 rates have changed [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and basis has also changed [7]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production rate and weekly output have decreased slightly, and glass melting volume has remained stable [7]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory have increased, while soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory has decreased [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and there are also changes in spreads [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Chlor - alkali开工率 and industry profits have changed, and downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC has also changed. Inventory has decreased to some extent [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have remained stable, and cash flows have changed [9]. - **PX - related**: PX prices and spreads have changed, and开工率 has decreased [9]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices, basis, and processing fees have changed, and开工率 has decreased slightly [9]. - **MEG - related**: MEG prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and开工率 has changed slightly [9]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices have changed, and basis and regional spreads have also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories have decreased [10]. - **开工率**: Upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol have changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of pure benzene and related spreads have changed, and import profits have also changed [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and cash flows have also changed [13]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories have changed, and产业链开工率 has also changed [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - Strategies mainly involve constructing option portfolio strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. - Each option variety's strategy report is compiled based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overview of Underlying Futures Markets - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and their offsets, as well as the maximum call and put open interests of various energy - chemical options, are presented, which help to analyze the pressure and support levels of the underlying assets [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call and put implied volatilities, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of various energy - chemical options [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions for Each Option Variety 3.5.1 Energy - related Options: Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US crude oil inventories have different changes. The crude oil market has shown a complex price trend from August to November [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.8, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 540 and the support level is 460 [8]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [8]. 3.5.2 Energy - related Options: LPG - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The LPG market is relatively strong, with a rebound in the external market. The domestic fundamentals are tightening marginally. The market has shown a complex price trend since August [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has dropped significantly to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.8, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 4250 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.3 Alcohol - related Options: Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The supply may increase, and the inventory is expected to rise slightly. The market has shown a weak - biased trend since August [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.8, indicating a weak - oscillating market. The pressure level is 2500 and the support level is 2000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.4 Alcohol - related Options: Ethylene Glycol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The weekly production has a slight increase, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The market has shown a weak - biased trend since August [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.7, indicating strong short - side power. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 4000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. Build a short - volatility strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin - related Options: Polypropylene - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The production has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has risen. The market has shown a weak - biased trend since August [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has dropped to near the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.7, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7000 and the support level is 6300 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.6 Rubber - related Options: Rubber - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The tire production capacity utilization rate and inventory turnover days have different changes. The market has shown a weak - oscillating trend since August [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has dropped to near the lower - than - average level after a rapid increase. The open interest PCR is below 0.6. The pressure level is 16000 and the support level is 15000 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.7 Polyester - related Options: PTA - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The PTA load has been adjusted, and the market has shown a rebound - with - pressure trend since August [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a higher - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.7, indicating an oscillating market. The pressure level is 4700 and the support level is 4300 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.8 Alkali - related Options: Caustic Soda - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly, and the market has shown a weak - short - side trend since August [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.8, indicating a weak - oscillating market. The pressure level is 3000 and the support level is 2200 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.9 Alkali - related Options: Soda Ash - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The inventory has increased year - on - year, and the market has shown a low - level weak - oscillating trend since August [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.6, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level is 1860 and the support level is 1100 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. Build a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [13]. 3.5.10 Other Options: Urea - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. The market has shown a low - level oscillating and gradually rebounding trend since August [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.6, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level is 1800 and the support level is 1600 [14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the futures market continues to decline weakly. High port inventory pressure persists, with limited destocking before the 01 contract. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [3]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, showing relative resilience. Supply - side corporate profits are low, and production has slightly declined but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved due to agricultural reserves and exports. With export policies and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. - For rubber, the start - up load of tire enterprises has decreased, and semi - steel tire export orders have slowed. However, typhoons may increase supply, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts may benefit the January contract. Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. - For PVC, corporate profits are at a low level, supply is high with new installations coming online, and demand is weak both domestically and in exports. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are stable, while styrene prices are rising. Supply is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to pause production growth may support oil prices. PE valuation has limited downside, but high warehouse receipts suppress the market. With inventory reduction and seasonal demand, prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. - For polypropylene, cost - side supply may increase, and supply pressure remains high. Although demand has rebounded seasonally, overall inventory pressure is high. Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, leading to expected inventory accumulation in November. However, there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand structure, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. - For PTA, supply - side maintenance has increased, but new installations will lead to inventory accumulation in November. Demand may remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas installations are operating at high loads, imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.66% decline, at 455.50 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.43 million barrels to 424.16 million barrels, a 0.80% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 410.93 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang price increased by 3, Lunan by 5, and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan to 2016 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline. Be vigilant about price drops [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, while Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan to 1665 yuan, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 70 [5]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, with limited downside. It's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: As of November 20, 2025, the start - up load of full - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire export orders slowed. Typhoons may increase supply, and 110,000 tons of warehouse receipts will be cancelled on November 15 [10]. - **Strategy**: Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 36 yuan to 4456 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 311. The overall start - up rate was 78.5%, down 2.2%. Factory inventory was 322,000 tons, down 12,000 tons, and social inventory was 1.028 million tons, down 13,000 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also stable, with a narrowing basis. The spot price of styrene increased, and the futures price also rose, with a strengthening basis. The upstream start - up rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 265,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6835 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6855 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 20 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 83.77%, up 0.89%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 259,000 tons, and trader inventory increased by 50,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy**: Prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 120 yuan/ton, strengthening by 34 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 77.71%, down 0.68%. Overall inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6830 yuan. PX CFR increased by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was - 22 yuan. The Chinese load was 86.8%, down 3%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some installations were shut down or under maintenance [22]. - **Strategy**: There may be inventory accumulation in November, but there is support, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 16 yuan to 4696 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan. The load was 72.1%, down 3.6%. Some installations were under maintenance, and downstream load increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Supply - side inventory may accumulate in November, and PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 81 yuan to 3822 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 34 yuan to 3885 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan. The load was 70.7%, down 0.9%. Port inventory increased by 71,000 tons [27]. - **Strategy**: Inventory is accumulating, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is expected to continue oscillating, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern. The geopolitical premium of crude oil is expected to keep fluctuating, and the supply pressure persists. [3][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - Market news: Iran has raised its combat readiness level; a Venezuelan crude oil upgrading unit has stopped operating; Singapore's medium and light distillate inventories have reached multi - week highs. [6] - Main logic: After the release of non - farm data, the overseas risk appetite weakened. The geopolitical concerns have diminished, but the risks related to Russia and Venezuela are still hard to disprove, causing the geopolitical premium to swing. The alleviation of refined oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads provide phased support to oil prices. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production due to the supply surplus, but the current oversupply situation remains unchanged, so the price will oscillate. [7] 3.2 Performance and Outlook of Each Variety - **Asphalt**: On November 20, 2025, the main asphalt futures closed at 3058 yuan/ton. The price oscillated widely. OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, and the geopolitical situation has eased, causing the asphalt price to first fall below 3000 yuan/ton and then rise. The high absolute price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts. [8][9] - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: On November 20, 2025, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2517 yuan/ton. The price was driven down by the expectation of a Russia - Ukraine framework agreement. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the crack spread is continuously weak. Geopolitical upgrades will have a short - term impact on prices, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine situation. [8] - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: On November 20, 2025, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3139 yuan/ton. It followed the sharp decline of diesel. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil. [10] - **PX**: On November 20, the CFR China Taiwan price was 831(+4) dollars/ton. The price was affected by frequent speculation in oil blending, and its profitability was maintained under the support of polyester demand. In the short term, it will be significantly affected by market sentiment and funds, and the price is expected to oscillate. [11] - **PTA**: On November 20, the spot price was 4633(-7) yuan/ton. The fundamentals improved marginally due to longer - than - expected device maintenance and the support of downstream polyester demand. The price will oscillate with costs, and the TA01 - 05 reverse spread position can be temporarily withdrawn for observation. [11] - **Pure benzene**: On November 20, the 2603 contract closed at 5596 yuan, up 1.14%. The price rebounded after a decline, driven by US aromatic oil blending. The game between expectations and reality will repeatedly dominate the market, leading to an oscillating and chaotic market. [11][12] - **Styrene**: On November 20, the East China spot price was 6580(+70) yuan/ton. The price rebounded and then oscillated. The driving force for going long is difficult to confirm, and the short - selling space is limited. The price will be affected by oil - blending news and the pressure on pure benzene. [13] - **Ethylene glycol (MEG)**: On November 20, the main contract 2601 closed at 3822 yuan, down 2.05%. The price is weakly operating due to the medium - term inventory accumulation pressure. The rebound height is limited, and it will maintain a low - level oscillating and weak operation. [15][17] - **Polyester staple fiber**: On November 20, the Zhejiang market spot price rose 15 yuan to 6310 yuan/ton. The price passively followed the upstream. The export demand is strong, and the price will oscillate with the upstream, with the processing fee expected to be compressed. [18][19] - **Polyester bottle chips**: On November 20, the main contract closed at 5682 yuan/ton (-64 yuan/ton). The supply - demand drive is limited, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger downward support. [20] - **Methanol**: On November 20, the low - end spot price in Taicang was 1985 yuan/ton. The price oscillated at a low level due to high inventory and insignificant overseas disturbances. In the short term, it will have a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for overseas disturbance information. [22] - **Urea**: On November 20, the high - end and low - end prices in the Shandong market were 1650(+20) yuan/ton and 1630(+10) yuan/ton respectively. The price oscillated in a narrow range. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is supported. The market sentiment is uncertain, and the price may reverse its upward trend. [22] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: On November 20, the spot mainstream price was 6850 yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The support from its own fundamentals is limited, and the profit support is also limited. It will oscillate in the short term. [23][24] - **PP**: On November 20, the East China PP拉丝 mainstream transaction price was 6430(-20) yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The self - fundamental support is limited, and attention should be paid to the changes in device maintenance. It will oscillate in the short term. [24][25] - **PL**: On November 20, the low - end market price in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It will oscillate in the short term. [26] - **PVC**: On November 20, the East China calcium carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4500(-30) yuan/ton. The price may be anchored to production cuts due to high inventory. The fundamentals are pessimistic, and the market will be cautiously weak, with attention paid to marginal device dynamics. [27] - **Caustic soda**: On November 20, the Shandong 32% caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2438 yuan/ton. The price oscillated with weak supply - demand and low valuation. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost, and the price will have a wide - range oscillation. [28] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, etc., including the latest values and changes. [33] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The report shows the basis, basis changes, and warehouse receipt quantities of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [34] - **Inter - variety spread**: The report presents the inter - variety spreads of combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., along with their changes. [35] 3.4 Index Performance - **Comprehensive index**: The commodity index was 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index was 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial product index was 2200.99, down 0.68%. [276] - **Energy index**: On November 20, 2025, the energy index was 1140.78, with a daily decline of 1.49%, a 5 - day decline of 0.74%, a 1 - month decline of 1.34%, and a year - to - date decline of 7.10%. [278]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern. [3] - In the short term, the prices of various energy and chemical products will mainly fluctuate, with different influencing factors and trends for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are loosening, and supply pressure persists. The price will fluctuate in the short term due to the uncertain geopolitical situation, the decline in US commercial crude inventories, and the support from refined oil cracking spreads. [7] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price will oscillate weakly. Factors such as OPEC+ production increase, the end of the Palestine-Israel conflict, and the possible restart of Russia-Ukraine talks have led to a high inventory and a weak demand, resulting in a high overvaluation of the absolute price. [8] - **High-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price will oscillate weakly. The supply may decrease due to the reduction of Russian exports, but the demand is weak, and the cracking spread is also weak. [8] - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strength of refined oil supports low-sulfur fuel oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, its current low valuation and the support from refined oil prices will cause it to fluctuate with crude oil. [10] - **Methanol**: High inventory restricts the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It will oscillate at a low level. The inventory is still at a historical high, and although there is a slight decline, it still suppresses the price. [25] - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price oscillates narrowly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand has certain support, but the market sentiment is uncertain after the spot price increase. [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The boosting effect is limited, and there is insufficient driving force for a unilateral increase. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is expected to decline in the off-season, resulting in a limited upward space for the price. [17] - **PX**: Rumors of blending oil have disturbed the market again. The price will oscillate slightly upward in the short term, affected by market sentiment and rumors of device maintenance. [11] - **PTA**: The upstream supports the valuation, and the new downstream filament production capacity is put into operation, with a marginal improvement in supply and demand. The price will fluctuate with the upstream cost, and the processing profit is temporarily supported. [13] - **Short Fiber**: The fundamentals are average, and it follows the upstream passively. The price will oscillate with the upstream, and the processing fee may be compressed. [20] - **Bottle Chip**: The slight rebound of upstream raw materials supports the price of polyester bottle chips. The price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has certain support. [22] - **Propylene**: The spot price strengthens in the short term, and PL oscillates. The spot has short-term support, and the demand has increased due to the restart of downstream maintenance devices. [30] - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in maintenance. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and high inventory. [29] - **Plastic**: The oil price drops, and the maintenance support is limited, so it oscillates. The price will oscillate, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and the high inventory of the upstream and middle reaches. [28] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending oil disturbs the market, and it oscillates after the rebound. The price will oscillate, affected by the uncertainty of the blending oil narrative and the pressure from the pure benzene inventory. [16] - **PVC**: High inventory restricts the price, and it may be anchored to production reduction. The price will be cautiously weak, and the market focuses on the production reduction logic and marginal device dynamics. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply and demand, it will oscillate. The supply and demand are expected to be poor, and the price will oscillate due to the possible increase in cost caused by the decline in liquid chlorine price. [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for the future price trends of different varieties. For example, the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is - 12, a change of - 4. [34] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also change. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 15, a change of - 13, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, PTA and ethylene glycol, etc., have also changed, which reflects the relative price relationship between different varieties. [36] 3.3 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content for analysis is provided in the text, so it is skipped. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and plate index of commodities have different degrees of increase. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2553.16, an increase of 0.73%. [278] - **Energy Index**: On November 19, 2025, the energy index increased by 1.26% today, 2.26% in the past 5 days, 2.56% in the past month, and decreased by 5.69% since the beginning of the year. [279]