Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of this Wednesday's meeting, with reduced price fluctuations. Crude oil prices are currently oscillating in the low - range of $60 - 68, and the medium - to - long - term downward trend remains unchanged [1]. - Supply - side pressure is continuously accumulating. If the OPEC+ production increase policy is implemented in July, the total increase will reach 1.23 million barrels per day, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Geopolitical factors have high popularity but low pricing impact on the market. Although there are concerns about conflict escalation, historical experience shows that the impact on oil prices is short - lived [2]. - The market is currently in a weak balance, with geopolitical risks offsetting supply - side pressures. In the medium - to - long - term, inventory accumulation caused by OPEC+ production increases is difficult to reverse [4]. Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI, Brent, and SC forward curves and their respective monthly spreads, but no specific analysis of these data is provided in the given text [1][15][17] Supply - OPEC+ has been over - producing in May and June, and the market expects the same increase in July. Saudi's production policy shift has undermined the alliance's discipline. If the policy is implemented in July, the total OPEC+ increase will be 1.23 million barrels per day. US shale oil production is also at a historical high, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Russia has extended its gasoline export ban until the end of June, which has a limited impact on crude oil exports but eases market sentiment [2]. Demand - Although the easing of Sino - US trade frictions has injected short - term confidence into the demand side, the certainty of OPEC+ accelerating production increases has put pressure on the fundamentals [4]. Inventory - The EIA predicts that global commercial crude oil inventories will exceed 5.3 billion barrels in the third quarter, with a year - on - year increase of 12% [4]. Geopolitical Risks - There are concerns about a potential conflict between Israel and Iran. If Israel attacks, Iran may counter - attack in three ways, but the probability of blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low. The US Navy's deployment has reduced market concerns about a continuous supply shock [3]. Operation Suggestions - The market currently prices downward risks higher than upward risks. If there is an unexpected breakthrough in the Iran nuclear negotiations, it may cause a negative impact; conversely, the outbreak of conflict will bring short - term upward momentum. In the medium - to - long - term, every rebound is a good opportunity to enter a short position [4].

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with gold surpassing $3,300 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs on the EU, have negatively impacted U.S. stock indices, leading to a decline in major tech stocks [2] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] Group 2 - Copper and oil prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, with WTI crude oil settling at $61.53 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.78 per barrel [3] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in production, which may influence oil prices further, while the copper market has seen a price increase of over 5% in May [3] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on metal exports is becoming evident, but low inventory levels are providing some support for metal prices [4]

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@q ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：虽然中美经贸达成实质性进展，宏观因子转向乐观态势。不过 6 月美债危机逐渐迫近， "灰犀牛"效应凸显或诱发宏观新一轮负面冲击。同时 OPEC+产油国加快增产节奏，叠加原油需求预 期偏弱。在 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the April 2025 bond custody data, indicating a slight month-on-month decrease in total bond custody, with policy banks significantly reducing their bond holdings while other institutions increased their bond investments [4] - The IEA and EIA have raised their global oil demand forecasts for 2025, with IEA projecting an increase of 10000 barrels per day to 74000000 barrels per day, driven mainly by emerging economies, despite a decline in demand from OECD countries [5] - In April 2025, exports of electrical equipment showed significant growth, with inverter exports reaching $810 million, up 17% year-on-year and 28% month-on-month, while transformer exports increased by 34% year-on-year [6] Group 2 - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing steady growth, supported by favorable policies from the Two Sessions, indicating a sustained recovery in demand [7] - The snack retail leader, Mingming Hen Mang, is rapidly expanding its business through a franchise model, with a total of 14394 stores by the end of 2024, covering 28 provinces and achieving a GMV of 55.5 billion yuan [9]

2025-05-05 2025 年五一假期专题报告：多空交织，市场涨跌不一 金元期货投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】37 号 联系电话：0898-66552081 投资咨询部：汤祚楚（F3083973 Z0016291） 陈慧文（F03092243 Z0019922） 王妤（F03126705 Z0020083） 吴加总（F03096409 Z0020259）张桥（F03130419 Z0020424） 一、2025 年五一假期外盘涨跌幅 | 板块 | 外盘品种 | 收盘价 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (4月30日 15:00) | (5月5日15:00) | | | 外汇及 | 美元指数 | 99. 22 | 99. 8 | 0. 58% | | 贵金属 | 美白银连 | 33.04 | 32. 62 | -1.27% | | | 美黄金连 | 3315. 2 | 3271 | -1.33% | | 股指 | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 6894. 72 | 7172. 4 | 4. 03% | | | 德DAX | 22425 ...

证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 22 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 2025/5/22 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農物 | 農筋偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 上证50股指期货 | 二债 | 铝 | | | | 短纤 | 碳酸锂 | 氧化铝 | | | | PTA | 中证500股指期货 | 焼蔵 | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 十债 | 塑料 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 沥青 | 三十债 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 五债 | | | | | 生猪 | 纯碱 | | | | | 工业硅 | 棉纱 | | | | | 多晶硅 | 白糖 | | | | | 夏粕 ...

Gasoil月差结构(美元/吨) 50 25 40 20 15 10 5 0 0 -10 r -20 -10 -30 -15 202502 202505 2025 3DSCO2 1500 205504 707585 MI-M6 - M1-M6 - 41-M2 MI-M9 M1-M2 - - M1-M3 - - M1-M9 M1-M3 321裂解价差(美元/桶) 532裂解价差 (美元/桶) 70.00 70.00 60.00 60.00 50.00 50.00 40.00 40.00 30.00 30.00 20.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 000 0.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 - 2025 -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- -2021 - -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 202 -2021 - - 2025 亚洲石脑油裂解 (美元/桶) | 美国汽油裂解 (美元/桶) 20.00 70.00 1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险凸显，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-22 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：虽然中美经贸达成实质性进展，宏观因子转向乐观态势。不过 6 月美债危机逐渐迫近， "灰犀牛"效应凸显或诱发宏观新一轮负面冲击。同时 OPEC+产油国加快增产节奏，叠加原油需求预 期偏弱。中 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 5 月 21 日 橡胶甲醇原油 强弱分化 能化涨跌互现 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周三国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 14820 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.90%至 14820 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度收敛至 815 元/吨。随着前期利多因素逐渐消化，胶市转入偏弱分歧阶段，预计后 市国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周三国内甲醇期货 2509 合约呈现放量减仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2284 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2250 元/吨，收盘时略微收涨 0.22%至 2270 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度缩小 至 73 元/吨。在外部进口预期回升，未来社库累库压力增加。在甲醇 供需结构偏弱的背景下，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2509 合约或维持震荡 偏弱的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 原 ...