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能源化工板块日报-20250620
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 11:39
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高,油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治,伊以冲突走向主导油价,短期市场较为担忧战火扩大,极端情况下, | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略:双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 地缘冲突不确定性上升,油价震荡偏强,液化气短线偏强。成本端油价受 | | | | 地缘冲击,短线走强,并且伊朗 LPG 出口占国内进口比例约三分之一;下 | | | | 游化工需求继续回升,PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升;库存端利好, | | | | 港口库存连续下降。策略:上行风险较大,波动加剧,双买期权。PG | | | | 【4500-4650】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 装置维持高检修,现货涨势放缓,华北基差为-62(环比-14)。2024 年自 | | | | 伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%,后续进口存缩量预期。 | | | | 下周检修力度增加,预计产量继续下降。近期市场情绪好转,下 ...
能源化策略:美国可能介?伊以冲突,原油延续较?波动率
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating weakly", etc., which can be used as a reference for the investment outlook of individual products [266]. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is in a complex situation. Chemical products generally follow the strong trend of crude oil. The geopolitical risk between Iran and Israel has intensified, leading to increased volatility in crude oil prices, which in turn affects the prices of downstream chemical products [1][2]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating trend, and a long - short allocation strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On June 19, SC2508 closed at 570.9 yuan/barrel, up 3.29%, and Brent2508 closed at 78.74 dollars/barrel, up 3.5%. - Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. Although there have been attacks on energy infrastructure, there has been no substantial impact on crude oil production. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with high volatility [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3695 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3770 yuan/ton, 3990 yuan/ton, and 3800 yuan/ton respectively. - Due to the escalation of the Iran - Israel geopolitical situation, asphalt prices have a geopolitical premium. However, in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3333 yuan/ton. - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp increase in prices, but in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the cracking spread. Overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3921 yuan/ton. - It follows the trend of crude oil. Currently, it has a low valuation and is facing various negative factors such as weak shipping demand and green energy substitution. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 LPG - On June 19, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4513 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. - Driven by rising crude oil prices, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the chemical demand has recovered. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. 3.1.6 PX - On June 19, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 904 (16) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 7094 (106) yuan/ton. - The supply capacity of Asian PX is increasing, and the support from the supply - demand fundamentals in China is weakening. Short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to production cut news [12]. 3.1.7 PTA - On June 19, the spot price of PTA was 5175 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 269 (- 118) yuan/ton. - The supply - demand situation of PTA is weakening at the margin, and it follows the short - term trend of crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term following the cost side [12]. 3.1.8 Styrene - On June 19, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8050 (100) yuan/ton. - The future driving force is insufficient. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [11][12]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On June 19, the price of ethylene glycol increased, and the basis weakened. - It has a low - inventory pattern and is driven by rising crude oil prices. The weekly operating rate reached a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - On June 19, the price of polyester short - fiber was 6800 (+ 55) yuan/ton. - The short - fiber industry has a good pattern. The rise in crude oil prices leads to a compensatory increase in the downstream industry chain. The processing fee has limited compression space. It is expected to oscillate strongly [15][16]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - On June 19, the price of polyester bottle chips increased with the rise of raw materials. - The processing fee is in an oscillating pattern. As production cuts are implemented, the processing fee is expected to expand. Long positions in the processing fee can be gradually arranged [17]. 3.1.12 Methanol - On June 19, the low - end spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2750 yuan/ton. - The situation in Iran provides short - term support. The inventory in ports has decreased, and coal prices have stabilized. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.13 Urea - On June 19, the low - end factory and market prices of urea were 1790 (+ 20) and 1820 (+ 0) respectively. - High supply continues, but the demand at home and abroad has started. The overseas supply is affected by geopolitics, leading to a sharp increase in overseas prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [21]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - On June 19, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7400 (20) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in oil prices, the short - term price has rebounded. However, the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. 3.1.15 PP - On June 19, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire drawing was 7250 (30) yuan/ton. - Driven by the rise in oil prices and supported by methanol, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.1.16 PVC - On June 19, the benchmark price of PVC by calcium carbide method in East China was 4840 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in energy prices, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. The cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [26]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - On June 19, the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was 2760 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand are weak in June and July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price follows the production - cut logic. It is expected to operate weakly [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. It also shows cross - variety spreads and their change values [28]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.
日度策略参考-20250617
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 05:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]
银河期货原油期货早报-20250612
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:09
美国总统特朗普周三表示,美中已达成一项让脆弱的贸易休战回到正轨的协议,此前华盛 顿和北京官员就一项包括关税税率在内的框架达成了一致。框架还包括有关稀土和中国留 学生的内容。特朗普在其社交媒体平台上公布了伦敦两天会谈的一些首次披露的细节。用 美国商务部长卢特尼克的话来说,此次会谈为上月在日内瓦达成的一项旨在降低双边报复 性关税的协定"增添了实质内容"。 美国和伊拉克消息人士表示,美国正准备撤离驻伊拉克大使馆部分人员,并将允许中东各 军事基地的军人家属离开,因该地区安全风险加剧。消息人士并未具体说明是哪些安全风 险促使政府做出这一决定。白宫官员表示,美国总统特朗普已听取了相关汇报。相关报道 导致油价上涨逾 4%。 EIA 数据显示,截止 6 月 6 日当周,包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量 8.34 亿桶,比 前一周下降 341 万桶;美国商业原油库存量 4.32 亿桶,比前一周下降 364.4 万桶;美国汽 油库存总量 2.30 亿桶,比前一周增长 150.4 万桶;馏分油库存量为 1.09 亿桶,比前一周增 长 124.6 万桶。美国原油日均产量 1342.8 万桶,比前周日均产量增加 2 万桶,比去年同期 ...
安粮期货股指
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:02
宏观 股指 市场分析:当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元,较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨,而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%,短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右,若突破需成交量配 合;沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右,短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点:中证 1000 波动率较高,建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况;上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性;沪深 300 波动率处于低位,但成交额占比稳定,可作为中长期 配置参考;中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值(1.56)接近 2024 年均值(1.62),可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘:上周五美国非农数据超预期,削弱美联储降息紧迫性,同时中美第二轮谈判, 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期,原油价格或偏强震荡,关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析:基本面看,OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速,美国贸易战升级,特朗普政 府政策多变,引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面,美原油库存虽然下滑, ...
期现结合助产业链企业“稳坐钓鱼船”
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-06-10 16:15
今年以来,受原油与煤炭价格下跌、中美关税争端等因素影响,乙二醇价格从4800元/吨跌至4150元/吨 附近。在此背景下,部分乙二醇企业却能"稳坐钓鱼船",甚至逆势盈利,秘诀何在?答案是:期现结 合、双轮驱动。 市场人士认为,当前期货及衍生品市场正处在高质量发展阶段,实体企业应与时俱进学习运用金融工 具,解决自身生产经营中的痛点、难点,匹配采销过程中的风险敞口。合理运用场内外期货及衍生品, 有利于企业摆脱困境、赢得主动。 数据显示,截至2024年年底,国内乙二醇年产能为2822.5万吨,较2019年的1063万吨上升165.5%,其中 煤制乙二醇产能约1048万吨,占比约37%。2024年,我国乙二醇产量约1950万吨,同比增长16.2%。随 着国内产能投放进度加快,我国乙二醇进口量逐年减少,进口依存度从2019年的56.5%降至2024年的 25.3%。 浙商期货能化研究员曾滢月告诉期货日报记者:"行业产能快速增加,副作用也非常明显,2024年乙二 醇价格战打到'白菜价',油制企业每吨亏1000元,煤制企业每吨亏300元,只有'成本控'能勉强活着。" 市场人士建议,相关企业不能只盯着当前价格,要学会用期货"望 ...
研究所晨会观点精萃:美国非农数据好于预期,提振全球风险偏好-20250609
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 03:00
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data eases market concerns about an impending economic slowdown, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. The improvement in China's May PMI data and positive signals from the Sino-US leaders' call boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [3]. - For different asset classes, the report provides short - term outlooks: stocks may be short - term volatile with a suggestion of cautious long positions; bonds may be at a short - term high with a cautious wait - and - see approach; different commodity sectors have their own short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Overseas**: In May, the US non - farm payroll employment increased by 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at a low of 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The better - than - expected data led to a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite [3]. - **Domestic**: China's May PMI data improved, indicating continued expansion of overall economic output and accelerated economic growth, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. The Sino - US leaders' call released positive signals and also boosted domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Outlook**: Stocks may be short - term volatile, with a suggestion of cautious long positions; bonds may be at a short - term high, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; different commodity sectors have their own short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as metals, communication services, and trade, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. The improvement in China's May PMI data and positive signals from the Sino - US leaders' call boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. The short - term trading logic focuses on US trade policy changes and trade negotiation progress. It is recommended to be short - term cautious and go long [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, the precious metals market showed a significant divergence, with silver strongly breaking through and driving the gold - silver ratio to quickly decline. Employment data concerns increased market volatility. There are still uncertainties in trade negotiations. Silver has a technical breakthrough and catch - up demand, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level shock, and a callback - buying strategy is recommended [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Canadian wildfires and decent US employment data led to a slight increase in oil prices. The impact of OPEC+ production increase remains at the long - term structural level, and oil prices are expected to remain stable in the near term and may weaken in the long term [6][7]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are consolidating, and the asphalt market is in a narrow - range shock. Demand has recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PTA's operating rate has slightly increased, and PX demand will rise later. The supply will be tight in the future, but it will maintain a short - term shock pattern [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to continue to increase in June. The downstream demand is in a negative feedback state, and it may shift to slight inventory accumulation. It is recommended to be bearish on high prices [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the speculation on ethane imports was falsified, and with the coal price just showing signs of bottoming out, the cost - pricing logic still exerts pressure on the market. Supply will increase significantly, and it may maintain a shock pattern in the near term [8]. - **Short Fibre**: It generally maintains a weak shock pattern. Terminal orders have recovered slower than expected, and downstream operating rates are expected to decrease. It will continue to operate in a shock in the short term [8]. - **Methanol**: Inventories in the inland and ports are rising. The port inventory accumulation process may slow down. Supply is loose, and demand is fair. It is expected to shock and repair in the short term, and prices may decline in the medium - to - long term [8]. - **PP**: Production is increasing, downstream operating rates are slightly falling, and inventories are rising significantly. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and prices are expected to be under pressure [8]. - **LLDPE**: Plants are restarting, downstream operating rates are slightly falling, and inventories are rising. The price is expected to move down due to the production - expansion expectation [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Sino - US leaders' call restarts the negotiation, but the possibility of continued overly optimistic results is low, and attention may return to high - tariff risks. The copper ore supply is relatively tight, production is high, and demand may decline marginally. It will be in a short - term shock [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Supply is rigid, production is high, and imports have increased significantly. Demand may decline marginally, but there is still an effect of export rush. There is no major substantial negative news in the short term [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of domestic tin ore is tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed. Demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and inventories have decreased. Tin prices may continue to repair in the short term, but the upside is limited [12].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250605
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 00:47
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The US ADP and ISM non - manufacturing data were worse than expected, leading to a weaker US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. China's May PMI data improved, and the economy continued to expand, boosting domestic risk appetite. Short - term, the stock index may fluctuate, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; the treasury bond may oscillate at a high level, and it's better to observe carefully. For commodities, black may rebound from a low level, and it's advisable to observe carefully; non - ferrous metals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; energy and chemicals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to observe carefully; precious metals may be strong at a high level, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US May ADP employment was 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous 62,000. The May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, shrinking for the first time in nearly a year. The US dollar index weakened due to these factors and the president's call for a rate cut, and global risk appetite increased. Domestic: China's May PMI data improved, the economy expanded, and short - term domestic risk appetite was boosted. Although the US tightened restrictions on China's semiconductor and aircraft engine sectors, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also lifted domestic risk appetite [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as beauty care, clothing and home textiles, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. China's May PMI data improvement and the expected call between Chinese and US leaders boosted domestic risk appetite. The market focused on US trade policies and negotiations. Short - term, it's advisable to be cautious and go long [3]. Precious Metals - Supported by a weaker US dollar and weak US data, precious metals rose slightly on Wednesday. COMEX gold August contract reached $3397 per ounce. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, the lowest since June 2024. ADP data showed the fewest private - sector job increases in over two years. The labor market showed signs of cooling. Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term and have a solid long - term upward trend. It's advisable to focus on the employment report on Friday [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded on Wednesday. The rebound of coking coal and coke prices improved market sentiment. The actual demand was okay, with inventory decreasing but apparent consumption slightly falling. The supply side saw a slight increase in hot - rolled coil production and a slight decrease in building materials production. Steel may oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The iron - making molten iron output declined for three consecutive weeks, but the high profitability of steel mills led to different views on the decline path. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volumes increased this week. The delay of FMG's iron bridge project should be noted. Iron ore may oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Wednesday. The demand for ferroalloys decreased slightly. The production of silicon manganese increased slightly. The prices of raw materials were weak, and the market transaction was average. Silicon iron and silicon manganese may oscillate in the short - term [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia intends to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August or September, and the improvement of the Canadian wildfire situation led to a slight decline in oil prices [7]. - **Asphalt**: With the decline of oil prices, asphalt oscillated narrowly. Demand recovered to a limited extent. The basis of major consumption areas decreased, and the inventory destocking stagnated. Asphalt will follow crude oil to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - **PX**: The PX price remained high, and PXN was around 270. Short - term maintenance was relatively high, and with the support of crude oil, PX will oscillate strongly. However, the reduction of PTA long - term contracts and the lack of gasoline - blending demand may lead to a slight decline in PX demand later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remained at +200, and the 9 - 1 structure was around 140. The downstream was in a cash - flow deficit, with weak new orders. PTA may oscillate weakly later [8][9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the rebound of black metals, ethylene glycol recovered. Although there is some support at 4300, the supply recovery of synthetic - gas - made ethylene glycol is certain, and the probability of a sharp rise is low. It may form a bottom, and short - term trading can be observed [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillated weakly. Terminal orders recovered slowly, and the downstream may reduce production. Short - fiber may continue to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The possible call between Chinese and US leaders boosted market sentiment. The copper ore supply was relatively tight, while the production of electrolytic copper was high. The demand may decline as the peak season ended. Copper may oscillate in the short - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the overall commodity market, aluminum prices rose. There is no clear market logic currently, and aluminum may oscillate in the short - term. Later, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory and the high - tariff risk [10]. - **Tin**: Affected by the slow possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, tin prices rose. The domestic tin ore supply was tight, and the demand was mixed. Tin may stabilize in the short - term, but the high - tariff risk may put pressure on prices [11]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Supported by a weaker US dollar, CBOT soybeans and grains may maintain a range - bound market. The US soybean sowing progress was 84%, and the weather was stable, lacking continuous weather premium [12]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and soybean meal lacks a stable upward driver. The supply of rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the port inventory may decline. The market's expectation of trade tension decreased. The premium of soybean and rapeseed meal may decline if the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [12][13]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.58%. Malaysia's production and inventory are expected to increase, and the external market is weak. Indonesia's 2024/2025 palm oil production is estimated to be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's is estimated to be 19 million tons [13]. - **Live Pigs**: After the holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs were both weak. Pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term price increase due to the narrowing of the basis [14]. - **Corn**: The northeast corn产区 had a strong intention to support prices, and the north - south port corn inventory may continue to decline. The substitution of wheat for corn in feed may not affect the overall trend. The corn futures market was inactive, and there is no upward impetus currently [14].
五矿期货文字早评-20250603
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 07:22
文字早评 2025/06/03 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.47%,创指-0.96%,科创 50-0.94%,北证 50-0.51%,上证 50-0.45%,沪深 300-0.48%, 中证 500-0.85%,中证 1000-1.03%,中证 2000-1.75%,万得微盘-1.16%。两市合计成交 11392 亿,较上 一日-462 亿。 宏观消息面: 1、美方称中方违反中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识,中国商务部新闻发言人:中方坚决拒绝无理指责。 2、中国 5 月官方制造业 PMI 回升至 49.5,符合预期。 3、工信部:加大汽车行业"内卷式"竞争整治力度。中汽协:无序"价格战"加剧恶性竞争,挤压企 业利润空间,影响产品质量和售后服务保障。 4、特朗普宣布自周三起上调钢铝关税一倍至 50%。欧盟:表示遗憾,准备反击美国。 资金面:融资额-11.29 亿;隔夜 Shibor 利率+6.00bp 至 1.4710%,流动性较为宽松;3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.23bp 至 3.0414%,十年期国债利率-1.90bp 至 1.6762%,信用利差+0.67bp 至 137bp;美国 10 ...
中信期货晨报:商品整体下跌为主,欧线集运、工业硅跌幅领先-20250528
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 05:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].