Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with the futures market weak. Supply pressure is evident due to increased production and imports, while demand is relatively flat. The short - term trend is expected to be weak, with the main contract price likely to test the 60,000 yuan level, but excessive bearishness is not recommended [1]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the cost provides strong support. However, the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of weak shock. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [4]. - **Tin**: The macro - sentiment may drive the price to rebound, but considering the supply recovery and weak demand expectations, a short - selling strategy can be attempted in the 265,000 - 270,000 yuan range, with attention paid to the supply recovery [5]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot market is expected to remain tight in the short term, with prices likely to be strong and volatile. Attention should be paid to the production resumption of enterprises [6]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - factors provide support, and low inventory strengthens price resilience. However, the demand is facing seasonal and trade uncertainties, limiting the upside. The price is expected to range from 19,500 to 21,000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: Short - term prices may be supported by tariff easing, but the long - term supply is in a loose cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock or decline, depending on supply and demand [8]. - **Copper**: The market presents a "strong reality + weak expectation" situation. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the sustainability of the strong fundamentals after May and the tariff negotiation rhythm [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate均价 dropped 1.24% to 63,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade dropped 1.27% to 62,050 yuan/ton. The basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 200% to 720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased 6.65% to 73,810 tons, while demand increased 3.02% to 89,627 tons. In March, imports increased 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased 47.25% to 220 tons [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel均价 dropped 0.89% to 125,000 yuan/ton. The import loss increased 7.62% to - 3,910 yuan/ton [3]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased 6.08% to 36,300 tons in April, and imports decreased 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased 3.02% to 27,808 tons [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,200 yuan/ton, and the basis increased 3.70% to 420 yuan/ton [4]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased 0.27% to 944 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and exports increased 70.98% to 47.06 million tons [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin均价 dropped 0.15% to 265,100 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased 35.43% to - 82 dollars/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In March, tin ore imports decreased 4.83% to 8,323 tons, and SMM refined tin production increased 8.75% to 15,280 tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory decreased 3.46% to 8,417 tons, and social inventory decreased 2.30% to 9,959 tons [5]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum均价 dropped 0.20% to 20,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased 45.3 yuan/ton to - 1,311 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, alumina production decreased 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.91% to 360.60 million tons [6]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.66% to 58.50 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.51% to 39.3 million tons [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot均价 dropped 0.53% to 22,650 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased 79.77 yuan/ton to - 386 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, refined zinc production increased 0.31% to 50.98 million tons. In March, imports increased 9.47% to 5.78 million tons, and exports decreased 77.37% to 0.02 million tons [8]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 1.99% to 8.38 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 2.07% to 16.1 million tons [8]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper均价 dropped 0.91% to 78,110 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased 114.59 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased 0.32% to 112.57 million tons. In March, imports increased 15.24% to 30.88 million tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased 13.08% to 13.92 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 34.00% to 10.81 million tons [11].

若问古今兴废事，请君只看洛阳城。"十三朝古都""新中国工业重镇"的光环早已褪去，洛阳如今只是艰难追逐全省脚步的普通城市。 今年一季度，洛阳经济总量1355.4亿元，同比增长5.9%。值得关注的是，这是洛阳经济增速近7个季度来首次与全省持平，还是在去年同期基数较低 （1.5%）的基础上。 如今的洛阳，比任何时候都更渴望产业升级，渴望人才流入。近期洛阳动作频频——市委政研室发文剖析当地引才留才的短板，洛阳出台政策降低经济适用 住房认购门槛，无不针对人才引进大做文章。 洛阳能否抓住如今就业市场变化带来的引才机遇，重现荣光？ -01- 痛失"中西部非省会第一城" 比2022年还要更早一些 其实情形比这个还要更严峻一些。因为GDP统计有初核和终核，而洛阳在终核时经常调减数据。因此，真实情况是，洛阳在2021年（5384.2亿元）就已经被 榆林（5621.3亿元）赶超，到2022年已经降至中西部非省会第五，被榆林、鄂尔多斯、襄阳、宜昌集体赶超。 洛阳的问题官方其实很清楚。今年洛阳政府工作报告就直言自身短板——新质生产力尚未形成有力支撑，产业转型升级任务艰巨。但知易行难，洛阳的转型 并没有那么容易。 近代洛阳的最强标签，是 ...

| 有色早报 | 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/20 | 铜 ： | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜现货 ...

Group 1: Industrial Growth - Sichuan's industrial added value increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to April, with state-owned enterprises growing by 8.1% and joint-stock enterprises by 6.4% [1] - Among 41 major industries, 35 experienced growth, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (22.3%), chemical raw materials and products (20.0%), and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (15.0%) [1] - Key industrial product outputs included natural gas (9.4%), electricity generation (4.1%), and significant growth in smartwatches (92.7%), generators (73.1%), and lithium-ion batteries (66.7%) [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Sichuan grew by 3.2% year-on-year from January to April, with the primary industry seeing a 20.5% increase and the secondary industry growing by 15.7% [1] - Industrial investment specifically rose by 15.9% during the same period [1] Group 3: Consumer Retail - Sichuan's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 928.59 billion yuan, marking a 5.3% year-on-year increase [2] - Urban retail sales accounted for 753.51 billion yuan (5.2% growth), while rural retail sales were 175.07 billion yuan (5.9% growth) [2] - Notable growth in retail categories included communication equipment (79.2%), household appliances (16.4%), and food products (13.0%) [2]

中辉有色观点 金银：俄乌有进展、银行被降级博弈，黄金震荡 表 1：产业高频数据 | 盘面信息 | 最新 | 最新 | 前位 | 涨跌 | 上周 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | SHFE黄金 | 755. 86 | 751.8 | 0. 54% | 772 | -2. 13% | | | COMEX黄金 | 3231 | 3205 | 0. 80% | 3242 | -0. 34% | | 白银 | SHFE白银 | 8133 | 8101 | 0. 40% | 8232 | -1.20% | | | COMEX白银 | 33 | 32 | 0. 25% | 33 | -0. 87% | | | 上海金银比 | 92. 94 | 92. 80 | 0. 14% | 93. 40 | -0. 50% | | 比价 | COMEX全银比 | 98. 84 | 98. 84 | 0. 00% | 98. 35 | 0. 49% | | | SHFE 金 / COMEX | 7. 38 | 7.34 | 0. 54% | 7.44 | ...

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 2025 年 05 月 20 日 "反内卷"的新意？ ——"反内卷"系列专题之一 2025 年政府工作报告明确提出"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"；哪些行业可能存在"内卷 式"竞争，本轮"反内卷"有何不同？本文系统分析，可供参考。 ⚫ 为何当前时点强调"反内卷"？产能利用率与 PPI 双重承压，地方招商引资竞争加剧 当前我国工业领域面临供需失衡压力攀升，突出表现为产能利用率与价格体系的双重承压。 截至 2025 年 4 月，PPI 已连续 31 个月同比负增长，仅短于 2012-2016 年时期。工业产 能利用率自 2021 年三季度的 77.7%持续回落，2025 年一季度降至 75.1%。 同时，近年来各地招商引资竞争加剧，或助长部分领域"内卷式"竞争。国研院调查研究 报告显示，目前地方招商"内卷化"主要表现为四"集中"：一是集中在相同产业领域进 行招商；二是集中比拼政策优惠力度；三是集中在"大项目""大企业""全产业链"方 面招商；四是集中在"招项目"的环节上发力，"管项目"方面缺少可持续性机制。 在此背景下，2024 年底以来，政府和业界越发重视"反内卷"。2024 年中央政 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/20 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周一夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，沥青、菜油、棕榈油涨近 1%。跌幅方面，对二甲苯（PX）、PTA 跌超 1%，瓶片、乙二醇、短纤、菜粕跌 近 1%。 2.国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.41%报 3232.20 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.44%报 32.50 美元/盎司。 3. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 0.29%，报 62.15 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.17%，报 65.52 美元/桶。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌不一，LME 期锡涨 0.98%报 32960.00 美元/吨， LME 期铜涨 0.81%报 9516.00 美元/吨。 5. 国际农产品期货多数上涨，美大豆涨 0.12%，美玉米涨 0.79%，美豆油 涨 1.12%，美豆粕跌 0.24%，美小麦涨 0.86%。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 总机：010-8535 66 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 20 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

截至 5 月 19 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.63%至 77820 元/吨。中 美关税冲突缓和，叠加国内密集出台"稳增长"政策组合拳，同时美国 通胀降温，美联储降息概率加大，整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，对铜价 有所提振。基本面，铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落，创历史新低，但下跌速度 放缓，短期对炼厂产量影响不大。随着铜价上行，持货商挺价出货与下 游畏高保守采购形成博弈，下游订单新增相对有限，消费提升空间不大， 5 月部分铜材加工率环比有所下滑，虽好于去年同期，但需求已有走弱 迹象。旺季转淡，库存低位累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱，现货升水或 将承压。整体来看，宏观偏好，而基本面有所转弱，沪铜近期或仍维持 震荡格局。 有色金属日报 ◆ 铝： 基本金属 截至 5 月 19 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 0.20%至 20110 元/吨。近 日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级，推动氧化铝 价格大涨，但具体影响有待评估。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 10 万吨 至 8685 万吨，全国氧化铝库存 324.6 万吨，周度环比减少 4.2 万吨。 氧化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在继续，市场处于投产、复 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 4 月经济数据同比回落 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储官员频频为降息泼冷水 特朗普和普京的谈话结束，特朗普表态俄乌立刻谈判，但是分 歧存在的情况下，预计难以实现。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中国 4 月经济数据同比回落 综 4 月份经济数据同比增速回落，反映出外部冲击和内需走弱的双 重压力。下一阶段政策应竭力呵护房地产市场，持续巩固"止 跌回稳"态势，缓解居民资产收缩压力，释放消费潜力。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 美豆种植率高于预期 报 巴西 CNF 升贴水继续下降，国内进口大豆成本随之下行。随着 进口大豆到港及油厂开机增加，上周豆粕库存继续小幅上升， 昨日沿海豆粕现货报价以下跌为主。 有色金属（铜） 中国 4 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量同比增加 0.2% 短期美元指数承压运行而支撑铜价，但国内基本面阶段转弱预 期升温而抑制铜价，总体上，铜价短期震荡偏弱运行可能性更 大。 能源化工（原油） 欧盟或向 G7 提议将俄罗斯石油价格上限降至 50 美元/桶 油价窄幅波动。 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | -- ...