Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The latest US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in February significantly exceeded expectations, indicating short - term economic resilience in the US, increased market risk appetite, and a weakening US dollar index [14][17][18]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49, showing a weakening economy, and there were issues such as low demand sub - items and the inability of upstream price increases to be effectively transmitted downstream [2][28]. - In the commodity market, prices of various products are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and policy expectations, with different trends and outlooks [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US ADP employment in February was 63,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000. The US Senate failed to stop the president from using force, and the US Treasury Secretary may raise the universal tariff to 15% this week [10][11][12]. - Gold prices rebounded slightly but failed to recover the previous day's decline. The US economic data was better than expected, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was postponed to the second half of the year. The short - term monetary policy entered a wait - and - see stage, and the gold price lacked continuous upward momentum. The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be weak and volatile, with silver weaker than gold [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in February was 56.1, exceeding the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 53.8. The new order index was 58.6, higher than the previous value of 53.1. The US Treasury Secretary said the universal tariff might be raised to 15% this week, and the White House said the US military had attacked over 2,000 Iranian targets [14][15][16]. - The US economy shows short - term resilience, market risk appetite rises, and the US dollar index weakens. The US dollar is expected to decline in the short term [17][18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, a 0.3% month - on - month decrease. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a 0.1% increase, and the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The schedule of the 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress's centralized interview activities was announced [20][21]. - The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower with a gap. The current dominant factor is the risk - aversion sentiment, and the stocks of the "Three Barrels of Oil" fluctuated significantly due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation. Attention should be paid to domestic policy efforts during the Two Sessions, and the national team may take measures to stabilize the market. It is recommended to operate the stock index long - strategy with a low position [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US ISM services PMI in February rose to 56.1, the strongest performance since mid - 2022. New orders grew strongly, the employment market improved, and the overall economic momentum increased significantly. The price pressure in the service industry eased. The White House said sending US ground troops to Iran was not currently in the plan, and a Fed governor said the Middle East situation had not changed the judgment on interest rate cuts [23][24][25]. - US economic data remained resilient, ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the service industry ISM showed an improvement in economic sentiment, boosting market risk appetite. The US stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate due to the high uncertainty of the short - term geopolitical conflict [26][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49, lower than the expected 49.1 and the previous value of 49.3. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 49.8 and the previous value of 49.4. The central bank conducted a 40.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 36.9 billion yuan on the day [28][29]. - The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut has increased, and the short - end varieties performed strongly. Although the weakening of the PMI is affected by seasonal factors, there are also problems such as low demand sub - items and the inability of upstream price increases to be effectively transmitted downstream. The bond market is expected to strengthen slightly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of imported inflation [29][30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 4, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The phenomenon of shipping losses still exists, and traders are cautious in shipping. The demand side has no obvious signal of volume increase, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs, with frequent price - pressing and poor transaction conditions [31]. - Overseas coal prices have risen significantly due to the Middle East conflict, but the domestic market is calm, and the port trading is light. The domestic coal price is expected to be supported, but whether there is more upward elasticity needs to be observed [32]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company, Akora Resources, obtained a new mining license for its iron ore project in Madagascar [33]. - Iron ore prices continue to fluctuate. Under the pressure of terminal finished product inventory and orders, it is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. During the Two Sessions, environmental protection restrictions in some areas will relieve the pressure on finished products to some extent. The terminal is expected to resume production in mid - March, but the overall terminal orders are average. It is expected that the iron ore price will maintain a weak and volatile pattern [33]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Real estate regulations in many places have led to a significant increase in the consultation and visit volume. The steel price continues to fluctuate, with obvious fundamental suppression and strong cost - side support. Without unexpected policies, the steel price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile in the short term [34]. - It is recommended to adopt a volatile thinking and pay attention to potential undervalued opportunities [35]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In February, the actual arrival of imported soybeans in the domestic market was about 4.602 million tons. The international market has not changed much, and the CBOT soybeans are still strong due to the positive US biofuel policy. The domestic soybean meal is strongly volatile under cost support, but the supply and demand situation does not support continuous price increases [36]. - It is recommended to view the soybean meal trend with a volatile thinking and continue to pay attention to China's soybean procurement, Brazil's harvest and shipment, and domestic reserve and customs policies [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is expected to face a longer and more severe drought this year, and the MPOA estimates that the palm oil production in Malaysia in February decreased by 16.24% month - on - month [37]. - The oil market is volatile. The POGO spread has dropped to a two - year low, and the domestic biodiesel demand is expected to be supported. If the drought intensifies in the second half of the year and the production reduction caused by the nationalization of Indonesian plantations is realized, the palm oil price has upward potential. In the short term, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction in February and the supply - demand data in March [38]. - In the short term, attention should be paid to the data in February and the progress of the geopolitical conflict. If the diesel price remains high, the oil market price is expected to rise [39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of February 27, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 743,000 tons, an increase of 124,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons; the imported sorghum was 300,000 tons, an increase of 93,000 tons; and the imported barley was 639,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons [41]. - The corn futures and spot prices are oscillating strongly. The supply of corn is expected to gradually increase, and the low inventory in ports supports the price. The downstream demand is expected to increase, but there are also risks such as the concentrated sale of corn in the Northeast and the potential impact of wheat substitution. In the short term, it is recommended to trade according to the trend and not to chase the high price. In the long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rise [41][42]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The sugar production in Xinjiang in the 2025/2026 season was 796,000 tons, slightly higher than expected. In Guangxi, 3 sugar mills have completed the crushing process, and the progress is still slow. India may face a sugar supply shortage later this year, and the export to the Gulf market may decrease due to the Iran situation [43][44][45]. - The ICE raw sugar futures are fluctuating around 14 cents. The US - Iran conflict may have a limited impact on the sugar market. The domestic sugar market is in the peak production period, and the sales pressure is expected to increase. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be in a low - level oscillation [46][47]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium iron phosphate project with an investment of over 3 billion yuan was put into production. In February, Chile's lithium carbonate exports were 26,849 tons, with 22,380 tons exported to China. There are rumors of mine shutdowns in Yichun, and Zimbabwe has officially approved a ban on the export of unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates [48][49][50]. - The lithium carbonate market is a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, the direct demand for lithium carbonate is still supported, but if the power demand recovery is less than expected, there may be order cuts in the mid - stream. It is recommended to consider gradually trying long positions if the price continues to fall [51][52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $19.21 per ton. The zinc price is restricted by both upward and downward factors. The LME inventory decreased by 125 tons to 95,300 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased. The zinc production in March is expected to increase, and the domestic fundamentals are under short - term pressure [53]. - It is recommended to wait and see from a unilateral perspective and adopt a medium - term positive arbitrage strategy from an internal - external perspective [54]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $49.27 per ton. The lead price rebounded from a low level due to the cost support of recycled lead, but it is also affected by the macro - situation. The social inventory of lead is expected to continue to decline in the next two weeks [55][56]. - It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips from a unilateral perspective and wait and see from a monthly spread perspective [56]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vale Base Metals is accelerating its IPO preparation. In February, Chile's copper exports to China decreased. The Middle East situation and the expected policy changes during the Two Sessions will affect the copper price. The domestic and overseas inventory situations also have an impact on the price [57][58]. - It is recommended to buy on dips from a unilateral perspective and wait and see from an arbitrage perspective [59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On March 3, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $130 per ton. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease in the short term but may face constraints in the long term. The domestic smelting profit is gradually recovering, and the downstream demand is gradually picking up [60][61][62]. - In the short term, the tin price is under pressure from the macro - situation and the high inventory. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be in a tight balance, and the price decline space is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream receiving situation and the macro - situation [63]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Saudi Aramco plans to expand exports from Yanbu Port. The oil price increase has slowed down. The market is concerned about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If Saudi Aramco can maintain a high loading volume at Yanbu Port, it will partially solve the problem of stagnant oil exports, but the Houthi rebels' interference still exists [64]. - The short - term oil price will remain highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the situation changes [64]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG) - The current propane inventory is 73.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.8 million barrels from the previous week and 24.7 million barrels from the same period last year. The supply and demand of LPG have changed, and the market is affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [65]. - Attention should be paid to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz [65]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has increased. The international oil price has risen due to the geopolitical conflict, driving up the asphalt price. The supply of asphalt is expected to remain low, and the price has an upward risk [66][67]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PX price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors. The PTA basis has strengthened, and the PX structure has also strengthened. The short - term PTA/PX prices are expected to continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the geopolitical situation [68][70][71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 77,900 tons to 1.0981 million tons on March 4, 2026. The international urea price is strong, and the domestic supply is abundant, while the demand is also increasing. The market is optimistic about the spring plowing season, but policy intervention may occur if the price rises too fast [72][73]. - It is recommended to stop profit on long positions and wait for a better entry point [74]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - From February 25 to March 4, the inventory of styrene in the East China main port increased. There are news of upstream device load reduction, and if the war continues until the end of April, the styrene inventory may bottom out. The overall trend is bullish, but attention should be paid to the escalation of the conflict and the spread of credit risks [75][76][77]. 2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - There are no Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, but the war risk level has reached its peak. The freight forwarders face high war surcharges and legal risks. The spot price of the European line has shown signs of differentiation, and the supply pressure will increase in the future. The EC2404 contract has a premium over the spot price, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on high prices [78][79][80].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments released guidelines to promote the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules, aiming for a cumulative utilization of 250,000 tons by 2027 [1] - Key technological breakthroughs are needed in areas such as surface structure disassembly, efficient separation of laminates, and component extraction [1] - By 2030, the goal is to establish a comprehensive utilization capacity for retired photovoltaic modules to handle large-scale retirements [1] Group 2 - International news highlights the escalating conflict in the Middle East, with Israel and the U.S. attacking multiple targets, leading to Iranian retaliatory strikes in the Persian Gulf [5] - The conflict has caused Iraq to cut its oil production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, with potential for further reductions due to storage space constraints [2] - The domestic manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 49%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [6] Group 3 - The average operating load of domestic coal-to-methanol (CTO) and methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities remains stable at 80.88%, with a slight decrease in overall methanol production load to 78.24% [3] - Coastal methanol inventory has increased to 1.3987 million tons, up 1.07 million tons from February 12, reflecting a 0.77% increase and a 35.14% year-on-year rise [3] - The upcoming National People's Congress will focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with an emphasis on core technology independence [6]

Group 1 - The State Council will hold a press conference on March 5, 2026, to interpret the "Government Work Report" [2] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized the importance of maintaining security in the Strait of Hormuz for global economic stability [2] - FTSE Russell announced adjustments to the FTSE China Index Series, effective March 20, 2026, including the inclusion of China Shipbuilding and others [2] - The manufacturing PMI for February fell to 49.0%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index slightly increased to 49.5% [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to trading margin ratios and price limits for fuel oil futures, effective March 4, 2026 [3] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted trading margin standards and price limits for methanol futures, effective March 4 and March 5, 2026 [3] - European natural gas futures prices exceeded €56 per MWh, marking a 60% increase due to geopolitical tensions [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced a new 15% global import tariff expected to take effect soon [3] Group 3 - E Fund will suspend trading of its crude oil LOF from March 5 until 10:30 AM [5] - Far Eastern New Century clarified it does not engage in "special optical fibers" or "fiber sensing" businesses [6] - Huayuan New Materials' controlling shareholder plans to transfer 6% of company shares, which will not affect actual control [7] - Xiamen Tungsten's revenue is expected to grow by 60% to 110% year-on-year for January to February [8] - Muxi Co., Ltd. anticipates a revenue increase of 24.84% to 87.26% year-on-year for the first quarter [9] - Shuangxin Environmental Protection will change its stock name to "Shuangxin Materials" starting March 5 [10] - COSCO Shipping has suspended new bookings for related routes due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East [11] - Huafeng Superfiber plans to raise prices for super fiber base cloth starting March 9 due to rising crude oil costs [12]

Group 1: Market Trends - The escalation of the US-Iran conflict is driving expectations for price increases in commodities, particularly oil and chemicals[6] - Oil transportation industry is experiencing a boom due to increased sanctions and production, with freight rates reaching five-year highs[9] - Precious metals are supported by safe-haven demand, while industrial metals face potential disruptions from rising inflation and recession fears in the US[6] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Chemical prices are expected to rise due to an upward shift in oil prices, with opportunities in strategic resources and high-concentration products[12] - The pig inventory is declining, leading to a potential recovery in prices, while natural rubber prices have increased by 4.29% week-on-week, reaching 17,155 CNY/ton[14] - Short-term sentiment in the chemical sector is strong, while agricultural sectors face declining mid-term uncertainties[21]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the oil industry, focusing on the implications of the recent U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices and supply chains, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transportation [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Strait of Hormuz Transportation Impact**: The transportation volume through the Strait has plummeted to 20% of its capacity (approximately 4 million barrels per day), leading to significant supply disruptions and increased freight costs [1][2]. - **Oil Price Projections**: If the blockade persists for 3-4 weeks, oil prices could potentially exceed $100 per barrel. Conversely, if the situation stabilizes within a week, prices may only rise by about $5 [1][10]. - **Insurance Constraints**: A major constraint is the cessation of war insurance by 7 out of 12 major insurance companies, which has led to a halt in shipping activities. Chinese vessels are still able to operate under protection [1][4]. - **OPEC Production Capacity**: OPEC's idle production capacity has decreased to approximately 2 million barrels, with actual production increases only reaching about half of nominal targets. U.S. shale oil production is also facing a bottleneck, with a projected decline of 100,000 barrels by 2026 [1][6][7]. - **Chemical Supply Shrinkage**: The expected contraction in chemical supplies is significant, with Middle Eastern ethylene and polyethylene capacities accounting for 16% and 24% respectively. Price increases in olefins have been observed, with daily price hikes of 500-1,000 yuan [1][3][11]. Additional Important Content - **Strategic Reserves**: China's strategic reserve replenishment rate has reached 600,000 to 800,000 barrels per day, but may shift to a phase of release under current pressures. The existence of 200 million barrels of "sanctioned oil" is crucial for managing long-term blockade pressures [1][8]. - **Historical Context**: The closest historical precedent to a blockade in the Strait was during the Iran-Iraq War (1986-1988), where oil transport volumes fell by about 40%, and prices surged from $13 to $40 per barrel [3]. - **Market Dynamics**: The current market is characterized by a shift towards "risk-off" sentiment, with oil and chemical prices rising while metals and equities are declining. The dollar is strengthening as a result [2][10]. - **Potential for Supply Chain Disruptions**: Refinery and chemical plant operations are already showing signs of preventive disruptions, with some facilities in Iran and abroad experiencing shutdowns [10][11]. - **Impact on China**: Chinese refiners may have a competitive edge over European and Japanese counterparts due to the ability to leverage dual pricing strategies and regional premiums [12][13]. Conclusion - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is critical for global oil supply and pricing. The interplay of geopolitical tensions, insurance constraints, and OPEC's production capabilities will significantly influence market dynamics in the near term. The potential for price volatility remains high, with various factors contributing to both upward and downward pressures on oil prices.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and its effects on the chemical industry in China, highlighting a shift from a broad market rally to a phase where performance is increasingly dictated by fundamental factors [4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 4, the chemical sector experienced a mixed performance after an initial surge, with stocks like Beihua Co. hitting the daily limit up, while others like Chitianhua saw declines [3][6]. - The chemical price index jumped 4.8% over two days, reaching a new high since the second half of 2025, driven by rising oil and gas prices due to supply chain disruptions [6][9]. Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly strained the global chemical supply chain, leading to a rare collective surge in domestic chemical futures, with methanol contracts hitting the daily limit for two consecutive days [6][9]. - Iran has become the second-largest methanol producer globally, and ongoing disruptions could impact energy security in Asia, particularly affecting high-energy-consuming industries [6][9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Differentiation - As panic subsides, market differentiation is becoming evident, with some stocks experiencing significant declines while others rise, indicating a shift towards fundamentals over sentiment [8][10]. - The methanol sector has led the recent price increases, but analysts suggest that a potential easing of geopolitical tensions could lead to a market correction [8][10]. Group 4: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - Current methanol inventory levels are relatively high, providing a buffer against immediate supply shortages, even if imports do not recover as expected [9][10]. - The production costs of basic chemical products like styrene are closely linked to oil prices, which have risen due to geopolitical risks, thereby increasing overall production costs [9][10].

- The "Six-Cycle Model" identifies economic phases using the three-month difference in medium- and long-term loan pulses (TTM YoY). As of January, the model entered Phase 6, "Monetary Expansion," indicating a defensive allocation strategy[7][11] - The "Analyst Industry Prosperity Index" evaluates industry performance expectations. The index shows that the cyclical and growth sectors are in an expansion phase, with the cyclical sector entering this phase in January 2025[12][13] - The "Industry Relative Strength Index (RS)" ranks industries based on cross-sectional returns. Industries with RS > 90% by April are likely to lead the market. As of February 2026, seven industries, including non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, showed RS > 90% signals[15][16] - The "Style Factor Analysis" evaluates factors like small-cap, value, quality, and growth based on three metrics: odds, trend, and crowding. Small-cap and value factors scored highest, while growth and quality factors showed weaker trends[30][32][36][39] - The "Industry Configuration Model" uses two approaches: the "Industry Prosperity Model" (high prosperity + strong trend, avoiding high crowding) and the "Industry Trend Model" (strong trend + low crowding, avoiding low prosperity). March recommendations include cyclical sectors like chemicals and coal[46][48][50] - The "Inventory Cycle Reversal Model" identifies industries in recovery phases with low inventory pressure. Current recommendations include oil services, coal chemicals, and rare metals. Historical backtests show strong absolute and excess returns[55][56][57] - The "Odds and Win Rate Strategies" include three models: "Odds-Enhanced," "Win Rate-Enhanced," and "Odds + Win Rate." These models optimize asset allocation based on risk budgets. Historical performance shows annualized returns of 6.7%-7.9% with low drawdowns[58][61][64]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in Iran have led to a significant increase in oil prices, which is negatively impacting global equity markets and increasing inflation expectations, thereby limiting central banks' ability to ease monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The escalation of the Iran situation has caused a rapid decline in global market risk appetite, with a notable drop in stock markets in East Asian countries heavily reliant on oil imports [1]. - Brent crude oil futures have risen nearly 40% year-to-date, while domestic crude oil futures have increased by 44%, contributing to rising costs for upstream resources and squeezing profits for downstream companies [1]. - The potential for prolonged geopolitical conflict could lead to sustained high oil prices, further pressuring global equity markets and increasing the risk of economic stagnation [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Rising oil prices are expected to elevate inflation expectations globally, which could hinder the ability of central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, to implement monetary easing [2]. - The shift towards stagflation pricing is accelerating, with implications for high-valuation growth stocks, which may face increased pressure as a result [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to elevate cyclical sectors as the main offensive investment strategy, particularly in light of supply and security concerns arising from geopolitical tensions [3]. - Key areas of focus include traditional energy resources like oil, natural gas, and coal, as well as precious metals like gold, and critical metals used in military and high-tech applications [3]. - Defensive assets, such as dividend-paying stocks, are suggested as a stable long-term allocation, especially in the current high-risk environment [3]. Group 4: Regional Market Comparison - The Hong Kong market is expected to follow a similar direction and structure as the A-share market, but may underperform due to a lower weight of defensive sectors like energy and materials in the Hang Seng Index [4]. - The technology and consumer sectors in Hong Kong are more sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations and are likely to be more adversely affected by rising costs [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Since Iran was attacked, most futures varieties have shown significant price increases. The market is highly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The prices of various commodities are expected to remain highly volatile, and the risk premium may quickly decline if the geopolitical situation eases [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Market - On the evening of March 3rd, the exchange implemented risk - control measures such as limiting positions to 50 lots for the container shipping route to Europe to suppress excessive speculation. On March 3rd, Trump claimed that the US Navy would escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, and the market began to bet that the conflict would not escalate indefinitely. On March 4th, the main contract of the container shipping route to Europe opened with a daily limit and then declined [9]. Crude Oil Market - On February 28th, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about one - third of global oil trade. If the Strait is completely blocked, Middle Eastern oil - producing countries can only digest about 25 days of stranded production. Different countries have different strategic oil reserves. The IEA has 1 billion barrels of emergency reserves. If the conflict is short - term, Brent oil prices will be in the range of $80 - 90 per barrel; if it is long - term, prices may exceed $100 per barrel. INE oil prices have risen more than Brent and WTI due to China's higher dependence on the Strait [14]. Chemicals Market Fuel Oil - Crude oil is the core raw material of fuel oil, with a cost accounting for 70% - 90%. Iran is the world's second - largest exporter of high - sulfur fuel oil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will reduce China's fuel oil imports. Although the actual supply - demand pattern is weak, geopolitical risks are the main factor driving prices. It is expected to remain strong in the short term, but the risk premium may decline rapidly after the Strait is reopened [17]. Asphalt - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran boosts asphalt prices from both supply and cost aspects. China's asphalt import dependence is about 10%, and the Middle East accounts for about 49% of imports. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects supply and increases production costs. It is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a risk of rapid decline in the risk premium after the Strait is reopened [20][21]. LPG - China's LPG supply is mainly domestic, but imports are the marginal variable. The Middle East situation threatens supply from two aspects: blocking the Strait of Hormuz and reducing production due to oil production cuts. The domestic LPG price has been significantly affected by geopolitical factors. It is recommended to pay attention to Middle East oil production and Strait navigation. The price will be highly volatile, and the geopolitical premium may be squeezed out if the situation eases [24][25]. Methanol - The domestic methanol supply - demand pattern is slightly loose. The production and shipment of Iranian methanol plants are affected. It is recommended to pay attention to Iranian plant dynamics. The price will be highly volatile, and the geopolitical premium may be squeezed out if the situation eases. The exchange has adjusted the minimum order volume to limit speculation [28]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Polyethylene - Aromatic series benefit from cost - push and raw material supply shortages. Polyethylene has cost and import advantages. The supply - demand situation of pure benzene has improved slightly, styrene has a healthy supply - demand situation, and polyethylene has a loose supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the Strait of Hormuz blockade time and exchange policies [31][32]. Propylene - Polypropylene - The supply of LPG is expected to shrink, which will affect propylene production. The market is in a stalemate. Polypropylene has strong cost support and active market speculation. It is recommended to pay attention to Middle East oil production and Strait navigation, and the price will be highly volatile [36][37]. Polyester Series (PX - EG - PTA - PR - PF) - The core logic is that geopolitical conflicts lead to cost increases in PX and MEG, which are then transmitted downstream. The price is dominated by geopolitics. EG has the greatest price elasticity, followed by PX, and PTA, PF, and PR are more passive followers. Potential risks include geopolitical easing and downstream negative feedback. It is recommended to pay attention to the Middle East situation and be cautious when chasing high prices of PTA [38][39][40]. Rubber Series - Natural rubber has fallen slightly, with supply - side news limited and downstream demand not optimistic. Synthetic rubber has strong cost support but high inventory and low demand, which may limit its upward space. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and hedge with put options, and those not in the market should wait and see [44]. Coal Market - The impact of the US - Iran war on domestic coal prices is not obvious. The price of coking coal futures is affected by the coal - coke - steel industry chain. The substitution effect of coal due to rising oil prices is not obvious, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. The marginal impact of Indonesia's export limit is weakening, and the port coal price has limited upward space. The stock market and futures market volatility has increased due to the international situation [46][49][50].

Market Overview - Geopolitical conflicts and US tariff disturbances are increasing, leading to heightened volatility in risk asset prices[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 4117.95 to 4162.88, an increase of 1.09%[2] - The NASDAQ Index fell from 23461.82 to 22668.21, a decrease of 3.38%[2] Investment Recommendations - Strong upward support for the Growth style index, which increased from 9588.03 to 9882.89, a rise of 3.08%[2] - The Cycle style index showed a significant increase from 6693.64 to 6967.09, up by 4.09%[2] - The Financial style index decreased from 9024.89 to 8873.67, down by 1.68%[2] Bond Market Insights - The 1Y government bond yield increased slightly from 1.30% to 1.322%, a change of 2 basis points[2] - The 10Y US Treasury yield decreased from 4.26% to 3.97%, a drop of 29 basis points[2] Commodity Trends - Brent crude oil prices rose from $65.21 to $67.02 per barrel, an increase of 2.78%[2] - COMEX gold prices increased from $4879.6 to $5280 per ounce, up by 8.21%[2] Currency Movements - The US Dollar Index rose from 97.12 to 97.64, an increase of 0.54%[2] - The exchange rate of USD to CNY decreased from 6.95 to 6.86, a decline of 1.33%[2]