欧元兑美元涨0.4%，暂报1.1765。据媒体报道，欧盟愿意接受与美国达成的一项贸易协议，该协议包括对其许多出口产品征收10%的普遍关税， 但希望美国承诺降低关键行业的关税。欧盟正在敦促美国给予配额和豁免，以有效降低华盛顿对汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝征收的关税，并希 望解决非关税壁垒和行业关税问题。 欧盟必须在7月9日之前与美国达成贸易协议，并正在准备应对措施，包括对价值210亿美元和950亿美元的美国商品征收关税，以防谈判结果不令 人满意。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation, with supply and demand expected to be balanced in July. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - The zinc market maintains a short - selling strategy, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. - The lead market is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in supply and weak demand in July [7]. - The tin market can hold long positions cautiously in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [10]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be strong in the short term and will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the medium - to - long term [13]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to face supply surplus and price pressure next week, but the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 45, the LME inventory decreased by 1,800 tons, and the LME cash - 3M spread changed significantly [1]. - **Market Situation**: The S232 investigation on copper is pending. The US has siphoned a large amount of electrolytic copper, leading to low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the social inventory remained stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly in 1 - 5 months. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The market is in a balanced state in terms of supply and demand, and attention should be paid to low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the zinc price fluctuated upward. The domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase in July. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is also weak. The short - selling strategy remains unchanged, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 450, and the LME inventory increased by 78 tons [4]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the demand is weak. The inventory in overseas nickel plates is stable, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. Continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price of waste stainless steel remained stable from June 23 - 27. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased due to production cuts in some steel mills since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The LME inventory increased by 175 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has some problems, and the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17,200 [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the tin price fluctuated upward. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. Cautiously hold long positions in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The base difference strengthened, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - **Market Situation**: The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lithium carbonate price increased due to sentiment speculation. The base difference weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to continue to be in surplus next week, and the price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, the alumina ore price will continue to decline. The profit margin of alumina will lead to an oversupply situation, continuously suppressing the market. After the rainy season in Guinea arrives in September, the alumina supply - demand may enter a mismatch stage, and there may be an opportunity for the price to reach a high point. - In the third quarter, the ingot output of electrolytic aluminum will continue to decline. After the end of the export rush, combined with the decline in photovoltaic and automobile production schedules, the supply - demand will converge bidirectionally, forming a game. - It is expected that the aluminum price will first decline and then rise in the second half of the year, with the lowest point from July to August. The low inventory at home and abroad provides strong bottom support, and the possibility of a smooth decline is low. If consumption exceeds expectations, there may be a driving force for further upward movement. With the end of the Sino - US tariff relaxation period and the uncertain Middle East situation, there are many macro - uncertain risk factors, and the amplitude may widen. [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price and Spread - In the first half of 2025, the alumina price dropped significantly, with the main contract closing at 2,986 yuan/ton as of the 27th, a total decline of 37%. The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,580 yuan/ton, a total increase of 4%. - In the first half of the year, the alumina spot premium decreased from 986 yuan/ton to 152 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum spot changed from a discount of 30 yuan/ton to a premium of 80 yuan/ton, and the near - far month spread changed from a discount of 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 165 yuan/ton. [6][8][12][15] 3.2 Supply - As of the end of June, the domestic alumina operating capacity will recover to 87.95 million tons, with an operating rate of 83.8%. The output in the first half of the year was 43.683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained stable at 43.91 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.1%. The output in the first half of the year was 21.678 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The aluminum - water ratio increased to around 76%. - The domestic bauxite production in Shanxi and Henan is gradually recovering. The import volume of Guinea bauxite is gradually increasing as the rainy - season impact fades. [6][29][31] 3.3 Demand - In the first half of the year, the start - up rhythm was affected by tariffs, with an average start - up rate of 60.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. From January to May, the downstream comprehensive processing orders exceeded expectations, with the processing PMI average at 51.8, a year - on - year increase of 4.5. It is expected that the decline space of the PMI in June will be significant. Among them, the start - up rates of aluminum plate, strip, foil, and cables decreased significantly year - on - year, while the profiles showed relative resilience. [4][7] 3.4 Inventory - Exchange inventory: In the first half of the year, the alumina inventory increased by 19,500 tons to 31,200 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 99,000 tons to 94,000 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 258,000 tons to 337,000 tons. - Social inventory: The alumina inventory decreased by 70,000 tons to 25,600 tons; the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 27,000 tons to 463,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory increased by 39,500 tons to 142,500 tons. [4][7] 3.5 Future Capacity Projections - Domestic alumina: There are multiple new and replacement projects in various provinces, with a total planned capacity of 11.3 million tons. - Overseas alumina: There are many planned capacity expansion projects in countries such as India and Indonesia, with a total planned capacity of 30.35 million tons. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum: The operating capacity remains high and stable, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacity and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned new and replacement capacity in 2025 is 3.32 million tons. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum: The planned restart scale in 2025 is 1.01 million tons, and 205,000 tons have been restarted in the first quarter. [67][68][69] 3.6 Options - Alumina options: Analyzed historical volatility and the put - call ratio of option positions and trading volumes. - Shanghai aluminum options: Also analyzed historical volatility and the put - call ratio of option positions and trading volumes. [91][94][98][102]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential resurgence of inflation in the U.S. due to trade policies and economic uncertainties, urging central banks to focus on their core missions to maintain market trust and enhance policy effectiveness [1] - The A-share market has shown a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increasing by 3.73% and 5.69% respectively [1] - Analysts suggest that upcoming mid-year reports from listed companies will create structural investment opportunities, with a focus on sectors with strong performance and high safety margins, such as consumer goods and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - The shipping index for the European route has shown fluctuations, with the SCFI European line increasing by $195/TEU to $2030/TEU, reflecting the pricing situation for July [2] - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with significant trading volume, indicating a potential upward breakout in the A-share market, particularly for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices supported by technology policies [3][9] - The glass and soda ash markets are currently in a phase of inventory digestion, with soda ash production inventory decreasing by 152,000 tons, while glass production inventory increased by 70,000 boxes [4][15] Group 3 - International news includes President Trump's comments on not needing to extend the deadline for countries to reach agreements to avoid higher tariffs, criticizing the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [5] - Domestic news reports that China has conditionally resumed imports of seafood from certain regions in Japan following monitoring of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater situation [6] - Industry news from the 2025 Listed Companies Forum indicates ongoing reforms in major exchanges, with a notable trend of A+H listings expected to increase [7][8]

Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, driven by consumption and investment, with long-term capital inflows into the market [8][13][24] - The communication and financial technology sectors are leading the A-share market's upward trend, while the semiconductor and internet service industries also show strong performance [5][9][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes, market liquidity, and external market conditions for investment strategies [9][13] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,424.23, down 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.34% to 10,378.55 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 14.20 and 38.05, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][13] International Market Performance - Major international indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced slight declines, with the Dow down 0.67% and the S&P 500 down 0.45% [4] Economic Indicators - In May, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China fell by 9.1% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the industrial sector [5][8] - The report notes a 5.8% year-on-year increase in industrial added value and a 6.4% increase in retail sales in May, reflecting resilience in industrial production and consumer demand [11] Industry Analysis - The new materials sector outperformed the market, with a 6.91% increase in the new materials index, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index's 3.24% rise [14] - The semiconductor industry continues to show growth, with global semiconductor sales reaching $56.96 billion in April, a 22.7% year-on-year increase [15] - The power and utilities sector maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating, driven by stable earnings from large hydropower companies [21] Sector-Specific Insights - The automotive industry showed positive trends, with production and sales of vehicles increasing by 11.65% and 11.15% year-on-year in May, respectively [35][36] - The gaming industry is expected to benefit from a favorable policy environment and the integration of AI technology, which could enhance valuation [30][31] - The pet food sector saw a 6.90% year-on-year increase in export volume in April, indicating growth potential in this market [34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable fundamentals and high dividend yields, such as traditional engineering machinery and high-speed rail equipment [28] - It also recommends monitoring the impact of policies promoting electric vehicle adoption and the commercialization of smart driving technologies in the automotive sector [37]

Core Viewpoint - Trump does not anticipate extending the July 9 deadline for tariffs, suggesting that he prefers to implement higher tariffs sooner rather than later [2][3] Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - Trump believes he does not need to extend the July 9 deadline for countries to reach agreements with the U.S. to avoid higher tariffs [2] - The U.S. government has the flexibility to either extend or advance the deadline, with Trump expressing a preference for the latter [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed skepticism about finalizing agreements with all trading partners before the deadline, indicating that reaching deals with 10 to 12 out of 18 key relationships might be feasible [2] Group 2: Specific Country Negotiations - India is highlighted as one of the countries closest to reaching an agreement, with trade officials extending their stay in Washington to resolve differences [3][7] - The U.S. is pushing for India to open its market to genetically modified crops, which India has resisted due to concerns for local farmers [7] - France's finance minister expressed confidence that the EU could reach a trade agreement with the U.S. before the July 9 deadline, potentially involving discussions on liquefied natural gas (LNG) [9] Group 3: Broader Trade Context - Trump announced plans for significant tariffs on major trading partners, including a 25% tariff on automobiles and 50% on steel and aluminum, set to take effect on July 9 [9] - The EU is currently purchasing LNG from Russia but is exploring increasing imports from the U.S. to avoid tariff hikes [9][10] - France is coordinating with the EU Commission on potential countermeasures against U.S. imports, although they hope to reach an agreement to avoid such measures [11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a steady upward trend with LME copper prices increasing by 2.26% to $9,879.00 per ton, while domestic copper prices rose by 2.47% to 79,900 yuan per ton. Supply-side pressures are evident as the processing fee for imported copper concentrate has dropped to -$44.81 per ton, indicating potential supply constraints [1][13] - The aluminum market is stabilizing at the bottom, with LME aluminum prices up by 1.31% to $2,595.00 per ton. However, the operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises has decreased to 61.8%, reflecting ongoing demand challenges [2][14] - Gold prices have decreased by 2.90% to $3,286.10 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and a reduction in SPDR gold holdings, indicating a temporary decline in gold's safe-haven appeal [3][15] - The rare earth sector is experiencing upward momentum, driven by export controls and stable production levels, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics and potential price support [3][27][30] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices are on the rise, with a slight increase in inventory and a decrease in processing fees indicating potential supply issues [1][13] - Aluminum prices are stabilizing, but demand remains weak as indicated by declining operating rates in the industry [2][14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are facing downward pressure due to geopolitical factors and reduced investment interest [3][15] 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The copper market is experiencing a robust demand outlook, with potential supply constraints due to declining processing fees and reduced operating rates in key sectors [1][13] 2.2 Aluminum - The aluminum market is stabilizing, but the demand outlook remains weak, as evidenced by declining operating rates in the aluminum cable sector [2][14] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a decrease in ETF holdings, reflecting a temporary decline in its safe-haven status [3][15] 3. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and stable production levels, with potential price support anticipated [3][27][30] - The antimony market is facing downward price pressure, but upcoming regulatory changes may provide a demand boost [4][31] - Molybdenum prices are stabilizing, with low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel sector indicating a positive outlook [4][32] 4. Updates on Energy Metals - Lithium prices have shown slight declines, but production levels are increasing, indicating a stable supply outlook [5] - Cobalt prices have increased, reflecting strong demand in battery applications, while nickel prices are mixed with slight fluctuations [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting an increase in metal prices due to rising interest rate cut expectations [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring copper smelting negotiations, which have reached a critical point with TC/RC set at 0.0 USD/dry ton, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply and potential production cuts in the second half of 2025 [8]. - It also notes that domestic aluminum ingot inventories are showing signs of accumulation, but the expectation of interest rate cuts may support aluminum prices moving forward [8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of specific companies, such as China Hongqiao, which is expected to see a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by higher sales prices and volumes of aluminum alloy and alumina products [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 295.59 billion CNY and a circulating market value of about 257.00 billion CNY [5]. 2. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the sector over the past month, six months, and twelve months has been 9.1%, 15.3%, and 22.7% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [6]. 3. Copper Industry Insights - The report discusses the copper smelting industry, noting that the TC negotiations have reached 0.0 USD/dry ton, which may lead to increased production pressure in the latter half of 2025 [8]. - It also mentions that copper prices increased by 1.3% in response to these developments and the interest rate cut expectations [8]. 4. Aluminum Industry Insights - The report tracks aluminum inventory levels, indicating a slight increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventories, with a total of 463,000 tons reported [8]. - The report suggests that the aluminum market may face challenges due to seasonal effects but could be supported by the anticipated interest rate cuts [8]. 5. Precious Metals and Small Metals - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector, such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company, as well as small metals like tin and silver, which are expected to see production growth [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that significant inventory depletion may trigger a short squeeze, leading to a strong performance in copper prices. This week, copper prices in London, Shanghai, and New York rose by 2.1%, 2.5%, and 6.0% respectively. The price surge is attributed to macroeconomic factors, including a significant drop in the US dollar and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as well as a substantial reduction in inventory levels [6][27]. - The report suggests that the current low inventory levels will support strong copper prices in the short term, with a focus on subsequent inventory changes and potential short squeeze scenarios [6][27]. - For aluminum, the report indicates that prices are fluctuating at high levels due to low inventory, while the alumina market is experiencing weak pricing due to ample supply [6][37]. - Lithium prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with expectations for future production cuts and seasonal demand to provide support. The report notes that lithium carbonate prices increased by 1.24% to 61,150 CNY/ton [6][73]. - The report also mentions that cobalt prices are expected to rebound due to an extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which may lead to a tight supply situation in Q4 [6][85]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 5.11%, surpassing the index by 3.20 percentage points [13][14]. - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors, with copper, tin, and copper materials showing the most significant gains [13]. 2. Industrial Metals Copper - London copper prices increased by 2.10%, while Shanghai copper prices rose by 2.47%. Inventory levels in London and Shanghai decreased by 7.99% and 19.11% respectively [27]. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 2.02%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 0.24%. The report notes a decrease in inventory levels in Shanghai [37]. Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased by 2.24%, and zinc prices rose by 4.22%. The report indicates a positive shift in profitability for mining companies [50]. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices saw an increase of 4.64%, while nickel prices rose by 1.81%. The report highlights a decline in inventory levels for both metals [64]. 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium prices are showing signs of stabilization, with lithium carbonate prices rising to 61,150 CNY/ton. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-side adjustments and seasonal demand [73]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to the extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which may lead to a tighter supply situation [85].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 29 年 月 日 有色金属 需求淡季不淡，看好工业金属价格上行 黄金：地缘与关税担忧降温引发金价回调，长期牛市格局不改。近期由于地缘与关税的缓和， 黄金价格震荡整理，市场近期转向美联储降息交易。过去一周，由于美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼 的表态，市场对美联储降息预期一度上升。但紧随其后，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、纽约联储 主席威廉姆斯、旧金山联储主席戴利纷纷为降息预期降温。关税对通胀的实际影响仍有待观 察，7 月议息会议前，美国就业和通胀数据将提供重要依据。此外，市场也在关注美联储" 影 子主席人选"，特朗普偏好的更" 鸽派"的" 影子主席"会导致更激进的降息前景。影响黄金 走势的中短期因素多空交织，短期黄金或继续震荡整理。但中长期央行购金、美国高财政赤 字、美元走弱等趋势未变，黄金长期牛市格局不改。建议关注：紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰 黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：库存结构性短缺，警惕逼仓风险。①宏观方面：地缘与关税边际缓和、 美联储部分官员释放降息信号，宏观对铜的压制近期有所缓解；②库存端：本周全球铜库存 50.3 万吨，环比-1 ...