最近，特朗普政府又搞出了个大新闻！ 2025年4月2日，特朗普正式签署"对等关税"行政令，要对全球贸易伙伴设立10%的"最低基准关税" ，对咱们中国等部分国家加征更高税率，像对中国 就加到了34%。 这消息一出来，全球资本市场瞬间就像炸了锅一样，从4月2日到4月4日，那叫一个天翻地覆。 今天我们就来聊聊，特朗普这步棋到底是在豪赌啥，后续又可能有啥结果，中国出招反制后，我们又该咋应对市场风险。 三是想重写地缘政治格局，通过贸易手段，在国际上重新确立美国的霸权地位。 这算盘打得挺响，但这其实是一场风险巨大的豪赌。 高关税很可能会带来通货膨胀，东西贵了，老百姓生活成本就高了；还可能引发全球报复性关税，其他国家也不是吃素的，你加我关税，我也加你的，最 后可能导致美国经济陷入滞胀，而不是衰退，全球影响力也会被削弱。 先说说特朗普搞这对等关税到底想干啥？ 说白了，他就是想通过贸易保护主义，重新塑造美国经济格局。 这背后有好几个目标呢。 一是想缓解美国的债务压力，美国欠的债那可不是一笔小数目，他想着通过提高关税，能多收点钱，缓解一下债务危机。 二是刺激制造业回流，这些年美国制造业不少都跑到国外去了，他希望高关税能让那些企业 ...

" 欧米伽未来研究所 " 关注科技未来发展趋势，研究人类向欧米伽点演化过程中面临的重大机遇与挑战。将 不定期推荐和发布世界范围重要科技研究进展和未来趋势研究。（ 点击这里查看欧米伽理论 ） 2025年3月，全球科技界迎来一股强劲的创新浪潮，其核心驱动力非人工智能（AI）莫属。本文 通过对当月密集发布的科技报告进行解读，揭示了AI正以前所未有的深度和广度渗透并赋能各个 领域。从大语言模型的持续演进和AI智能体的崭露头角，到能源革命、机器人浪潮、量子计算等 前沿技术的突破，以及数字化生存带来的新思考，都清晰地描绘出一幅以AI为核心，多领域技术 深度融合的宏伟蓝图。然而，在拥抱科技进步的同时，安全、伦理与治理等挑战也日益凸显，需 要全球共同关注和应对。 欧米伽未来研究所 2025 年 3 月收录了近 300 篇世界范围人类与科技未来趋势研究报告，并从 中精选出 118 部。这些报告全面反映了全球在前沿科技领域的最新动向和特点，对各行业专业 人士感知科技未来脉搏具有重要的指导和参考意义。 人工智能：从 "无所不在" 到 "无所不能" 的飞跃 人工智能的发展已然进入了一个全新的阶段。过去，我们见证了 AI 概念的普及以 ...

过去一周，全球市场风云变幻。全球主要股市多数大幅下跌，大宗商品集体回落，关税政策大事件将继续影响后期市场。 // 全球大宗商品表现 // 大宗商品市场在过去一周同样经历了剧烈波动，尤其是金属和能源类商品。Wind数据显示，COMEX白银、COMEX铜领跌，一周重挫超过14%。此外 NYMEX原油、ICE布油跌幅也较大，分别下探10.15%和9.21%。作为避险资产，高位的黄金仍然坚挺，COMEX黄金跌幅不大在2%以内。农产品小麦、铁 矿石和焦炭则强劲走高。 此外美科技七巨头一周以来也集体重挫，其中 英伟达、 苹果、亚马逊、脸书一周累计下跌都在10%以上。另外苹果股价创接近一年来新低，亚马逊、英 伟达、脸书也都纷纷创出半年来的新低。 // 全球股市表现 // 过去一周，受美国关税政策影响，全球多数股市经历了重挫。Wind数据显示，全球主要经济体19个股指全部下跌，其中意大利富时MIB、纳斯达克指数 跌幅最大，单周累计下挫超过10%。紧随其后标普500、日经225、德国DAX、法国CAC40等8个股指周跌幅超过5%。而中国A股上证综指最抗跌，一周仅 微幅回落0.28%。 国金证券宋雪涛分析认为，"对等关税"较大可 ...

（ 转 载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 关税加码背后的深层原因 年初至今，美国对他国的进口关税税率不断加码，尽管关税政策朝令夕改，但税率则超乎想象地往上加。如美方近日 公布的所谓"对等关税"方案，向所有贸易伙伴征收不同水平的关税，拟对中国加征 34% 关税，对欧盟、越南、中国 台湾地区、日本、印度、韩国、泰国、瑞士、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、柬埔寨等贸易伙伴征收 20% 到 49% 不等的 关税，对任何贸易伙伴的最低对等税率也为 10% 。 近年来中国对美顺差的占比已下降 来源： Wind ，中泰证券研究所 为此，我国也采取了向原产于美国的所有商品加征 34% 的进口关税，鉴于美方是在今年对中国加征 20% 关税基础 上再加征 34% 的，说明中方加征的关税属于克制的回应，且留有谈判余地。 特朗普再度当选总统之后，他的施政方略围绕着 MAGA ，即对外加征关税以获得 5000 亿美元以上的关税收入，又 能重振美国的制造业；对内通过政府效率部（ DOGE ）来精简机构、裁减公务员以节省开支、提高效率。同时，限制 移民、国内减税等政策可以起到鼓励投资、保护就业的作用。 特朗普任期与历任总统行政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, highlighting the potential impacts on macroeconomic conditions, financial markets, and various commodity sectors, particularly in the context of rising inflation and economic slowdown [3][4][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Impacts - The overall policy is hawkish but includes some buffer measures, such as exemptions for certain goods and a staggered implementation timeline [5]. - The market reaction to the announcement included declines in U.S. stock futures, lower U.S. Treasury yields, depreciation of the offshore RMB, and fluctuations in gold prices [5]. - The shift towards a stagflation trading logic is noted, with high tariffs and potential retaliatory measures exacerbating the macroeconomic landscape of "slowing growth + stubborn inflation" [5][6]. - The U.S. may consider further tax cuts and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to alleviate economic pressure [6]. Group 2: Commodity Market Impacts Non-ferrous and Precious Metals - The unexpected tariffs signify an acceleration of the de-globalization process, impacting both domestic and global demand levels [10]. - Copper is expected to remain supported due to its exemption from tariffs, while aluminum faces significant import reliance and high tariffs already imposed [11]. - Gold has been exempted from tariffs, but market volatility is anticipated due to economic uncertainties [13]. Energy - The tariff measures do not apply to imported crude oil and natural gas, mitigating potential cost increases for energy imports [15]. - The overall impact on oil demand is expected to be negative due to heightened global economic pressures from the trade war [16]. Chemicals - The tariffs are likely to negatively impact China's chemical exports, particularly in textiles and plastics, as the U.S. is a major market [22][24]. - The overall sentiment in the chemical sector is bearish, with potential declines in exports to the U.S. and increased costs for producers [26]. Black Metals - China's steel exports to the U.S. are minimal, but indirect impacts through third-party countries could affect pricing and demand [28]. - The overall steel market is expected to face pressure from U.S. tariffs, particularly on hot-rolled products [28]. Agricultural Products - The tariffs primarily affect U.S. corn exports, with minimal impact on China's domestic corn prices due to self-sufficiency [29]. - China's soybean imports are increasingly sourced from Brazil, reducing the impact of U.S. tariffs on supply chains [30]. - The tariffs on canola oil and palm oil are expected to create supply chain disruptions and price volatility in the respective markets [31][32]. Soft Commodities - The cotton market is likely to face downward pressure due to reduced competitiveness in textile exports to the U.S. [35][36]. - The rubber market may also experience negative impacts from reduced tire exports to the U.S. [37].

Core Insights - The report indicates that after a strong start to the year, the Hong Kong stock market has entered a period of consolidation, with the technology and internet sectors being the main contributors to the earlier gains [2][3] - Despite the recent slowdown, the overall market remains active, with average daily trading volumes exceeding HKD 200 billion, significantly higher than the historical average of around HKD 1000 billion over the past decade [5][6] - The report highlights that foreign capital has been optimistic about the Hong Kong market, with significant inflows into technology and consumer sectors, driven by the performance of the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index [8][11] Market Performance - The technology sector has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with notable increases of 32.0% in information technology, 27.5% in discretionary consumption, and 18.7% in healthcare [3][4] - High-dividend sectors such as materials, energy, and finance have seen slight rebounds during the recent market fluctuations [3] Capital Flows - Southbound capital has accelerated its inflow into the Hong Kong market since Q4 2024, influenced by declining domestic risk-free interest rates and improved industry expectations, particularly in AI-related companies [11] - The report notes a shift in domestic investors' preferences from high-dividend sectors to technology and consumer industries, reflecting a growing interest in growth potential [11] Earnings and Valuation - Recent earnings reports from major technology companies have exceeded market expectations, with many planning to increase capital expenditures in computing and AI [12][14] - As investor expectations adjust and valuations recover to historical averages, there is increasing divergence in views regarding corporate earnings and future growth potential [14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends maintaining a "barbell" investment strategy, focusing on both technology and hardware sectors for revaluation opportunities while also holding stable high-dividend sectors for reliable income [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513820) has seen significant inflows, with nearly 90 million yuan in net inflows over the past 12 days, driven by strong dividend announcements from major companies like China Mobile and strategic partnerships with Alibaba [1][4][9]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Inflows - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513820) has rebounded, currently up 0.63%, and has experienced a premium widening to 0.26% [1]. - The fund has accumulated nearly 90 million yuan in net inflows over the last 12 days, bringing its total size to over 2 billion yuan [1][9]. - The ETF has attracted over 560 million yuan in inflows over the past 60 days, indicating strong investor interest [9]. Group 2: Company Announcements and Dividends - China Mobile has announced a substantial dividend of over 50 billion yuan, making it the "dividend king" with a total dividend payout of 514 million yuan [4]. - A total of 17 constituent stocks of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF have announced their 2024 financial results, with a combined dividend payout of 286.9 billion Hong Kong dollars [4]. - The dividend yield of the ETF is currently at 7.71%, leading among major dividend indices [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Market Trends - China Mobile has entered into a strategic partnership with Alibaba to collaborate on digital infrastructure and AI data centers [4]. - The recent issuance of the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of Intelligent Computing Cloud Industry (2025-2027)" in Shanghai aims for the industry to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2027, indicating growth potential for cloud service providers like China Mobile and China Unicom [3]. - Insurers have been actively increasing their stakes in high-dividend stocks, with over 10 instances of stake increases this year, reflecting a trend towards stable cash returns [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing efforts by regulatory bodies to stabilize and enhance the capital market, support technological innovation, and implement comprehensive reforms in the financial sector [2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to consolidating the positive momentum in the capital market and will support the issuance and listing of quality unprofitable tech companies [2][3]. - A new round of capital market reforms will be fully initiated, focusing on deepening investment and financing reforms to achieve tangible results [3]. - The CSRC aims to enhance regulatory efficiency and strengthen the legal framework to combat severe violations effectively [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Data from the State Taxation Administration indicates that from October 2024 to February 2025, the sales revenue growth rate of enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points compared to Q3 2024, reflecting a recovering economy [4]. - Manufacturing sales revenue grew by 3.6% year-on-year during the same period, with high-tech industries seeing a 10.6% increase [5]. Group 3: Local Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Finance have issued guidelines for the issuance and use of special bonds for land reserves, emphasizing strict project correspondence and financial balance [6]. - Shenzhen has launched a new policy to promote venture capital and private equity development, aiming for over 10,000 VC/PE funds by the end of 2026 [7]. Group 4: Market Movements and Company Announcements - The Social Security Fund has emerged as a significant shareholder in 12 companies, indicating a focus on firms with strong performance and high cash dividend ratios [8]. - Companies like Jinzi Tianzheng and Dawi Technology have clarified their business operations in response to market speculation, ensuring investors are informed about their actual business activities [10][12]. Group 5: Financial Performance Highlights - Baihua Pharmaceutical reported a net profit of 41.48 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 219.75% [15]. - Jingfeng Mingyuan announced a revenue of 1.504 billion yuan for 2024, with a net loss of 33.05 million yuan, while planning to distribute dividends [16]. Group 6: Shareholder Actions - Huayi Brothers plans to transfer shares of Hero Mutual Entertainment for 336 million yuan, indicating strategic adjustments in their investment portfolio [17]. - Shaanxi Energy's major shareholder plans to increase their stake in the company by 250 million to 500 million yuan, reflecting confidence in the company's future [19].

以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者范亮 郑怀舟 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 交易过热是主因。 文 ｜ 范亮 编辑 ｜ 郑怀舟 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID：krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 2月最后一个交易日，此前一路走强的中国权益市场遭遇春节后的最大跌幅。 具体来看，A股市场中，上证指数单日下跌1.98%，年内收益翻绿，创业板指下跌3.82%；港股市场中，恒生指数下跌3.28%， 恒生科技指数下跌5.32%。板块方面，近期大火的AI、机器人板块也均大幅回调，红利、消费板块相对坚挺。 那么，市场因何大幅回调？本轮市场行情是否会就此结束？ 交易过热是主因 消息面上，对2月28日市场影响最大的，无疑是特朗普表示将在2月1日已生效的额外10%关税基础上，继续在3月4日对中国进口 商品再额外征收10%的关税，二者合计20%。这个关税加征幅度虽然与此前高盛中性预测的20%，大摩的约15%较为接近， 但 加征节奏却快于外资机构的预期，因此资金出于避险需求，引发市场回调 。 另外，2月份以来A股市场AI、机器人相关的板块涨幅巨大，如万得人工智能、机器人指数最高涨幅超过20% ...

2025年2月24日，一场造成数十万人死伤的地缘政治博弈，微微露出了和平曙光。俄乌冲突三年之 际，联合国安理会对美国提出的关于乌克兰问题的决议草案进行表决，表决中，中国、美国与俄罗斯 在内的10个国家投赞成票，5票弃权，决议获得通过。 如果2025年的某天，俄乌真的止战，或许会像当年冲突爆发时一样对国际形势与全球战略性资源产 生重要影响。南华期货商品分析师刘顺昌表示，若俄乌停火，短期内将缓解俄罗斯与北约的军事对 峙，全球供应链有望修复，包括俄罗斯油气、钯、镍等关键资源的出口，以及黑海航运保险费用降低 后，国际物流成本的下降。 纵观过去三年，多种大宗商品波动剧烈。黄金从1900美元/盎司，涨至如今的近3000美元/盎司， 涨幅超50%；布伦特原油在俄乌冲突后的8个交易日内，从94美元/桶上冲至139美元/桶；而近期 作为欧洲天然气基准价格的荷兰所有权转让中心天然气期货价格更是一度攀升近每兆瓦时60欧元。 01 黄金上涨不会停 俗话说，大炮一响，黄金万两。2022年年初，俄乌冲突爆发，致使全球地缘政治风险急剧攀升，市 场避险需求呈持续增长态势，进而助推国际金价大幅上扬。 文/曹萌 然而，当俄乌战火停息之时，哪类资 ...