2026年02月27日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：昨日贵金属继续震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价涨 | | | | | | 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价的国 | | | 5184 | | | | | | | | | 0.38%至 | | 金 | 际银价跌 美元/盎司。 | 1.01%至 | 88.272 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 属 | 基本面：英伟达年报业绩未能缓解市场担忧，股票大跌 | | | | 5%，拖累纳斯达克表现，不过 | | | | | | | | 年报显示业绩良 | | | DELL | | | | | | 好，盘后大涨；美联储理事米兰周四重申，尽管劳动力市场改善，仍预计 ...

为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业 务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。下一步，中国人民银行将继续引导金融机构优化对企业汇率避 险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。(中国人民银行) 开年A股并购重组逾500起 硬科技赛道活跃度居前 2026年，A股并购重组市场延续高景气态势，呈现量质齐升、政策红利集中释放、产业筑基、控制权变 更活跃等特征，成为推动上市公司高质量发展和培育新质生产力的关键路径。截至2月25日，上市公司 年初以来首次披露的并购重组交易达507起，同比增加33起；合计金额约1300亿元。其中，重大资产重 组案例20起，与去年同期持平，交易规模整体保持稳健。硬科技领域持续成为并购重组主战场，市场结 构不断优化。分板块看，主板并购数量仍占主导，占比58.3%，但同比下降超7个百分点，体现传统行 业并购从规模扩张向精益整合转型；双创板块（创业板+科创板）占比提升至近38.9%，同比增加7个百 分点，半导体、人工智能、生物医药等硬科技细分领域活跃度突出；北交所占比2.77%，以"专精特 新"定位提供差异化补充。（人民财讯） 20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 02 月 27 日 核心结论 分析师 【北交所】北交所日报——20260225：温和上涨，关注金三银四和两会政 策预期 zhouying@research.xbmail.com.cn 国内市场主要指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,146.63 | -0.01 | | 深证成指 | 14,503.79 | 0.19 | | 沪深 300 | 4,726.87 | -0.19 | | 上证 180 | 10,389.00 | -0.16 | | 中小板指 | 8,841.13 | 0.61 | | 创业板指 | 3,344.98 | -0.29 | 资料来源：聚源 主要海外市场指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 49,499.20 | 0.03 | | 标普 500 | 6,908.86 | -0.54 | | 纳斯达克 | 22,878.38 | -1.18 | 资料来源：聚源 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 ...

Group 1 - In February, nearly 240 listed companies were surveyed by various institutions, with over half achieving positive returns during the same period, and some stocks seeing cumulative gains exceeding 80% [1] - The mechanical equipment and electronics sectors were the primary focus of institutional surveys, with significant attention also given to cyclical sectors like basic chemicals [1] - Institutions are optimistic about investment opportunities in humanoid robots, upstream AI infrastructure, and certain chemical sector stocks that offer high elasticity and dividends [1] Group 2 - In January 2026, domestic automobile sales reached 2.346 million units, with the top ten companies accounting for 1.962 million units, representing 83.6% of total sales, indicating a high concentration in the market [2] - The automotive market is characterized by "steady start and structural differentiation," with increased competition among top manufacturers as they launch new products and technologies [2] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors saw 80 companies receive institutional surveys, with a focus on brain-computer interface stocks and the trend of innovative drugs going global [2] Group 3 - Several securities firms have held spring strategy meetings earlier than usual, reflecting changes in the competitive landscape of the industry [3] - The shift from "commission for research" to "service for income" is becoming more pronounced among brokerage firms [3] - The AI industry is entering a more pragmatic phase, focusing on revenue and profit, with significant investment opportunities in AI inference computing and domestic AI chips [3] Group 4 - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 11.83% to a high of 187,700 yuan/ton, driven by Zimbabwe's adjustments to lithium export policies, which may tighten global supply in the short term [4] - UBS predicts a potential third price cycle for lithium, raising the average price expectation for 2026 to around 180,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 5 - The A-share merger and acquisition market remains vibrant, with over 500 transactions disclosed since the beginning of the year, totaling over 100 billion yuan [5] - More than 50% of these transactions are driven by industrial synergy, highlighting a core market trend [5] - The hard technology sector is a primary battleground for mergers and acquisitions, with increased participation from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] Group 6 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported record highs in trading volume and revenue for 2025, reaffirming its position as a global leader in new stock financing [6] - The exchange aims to enhance market convenience and competitiveness while continuing to invest strategically in emerging business areas [6] - Export-oriented companies are actively implementing measures to hedge against currency risks amid fluctuations in the renminbi exchange rate [6] Group 7 - Regions like Guangdong, Anhui, and Hubei are strategically positioning themselves in advanced fields such as AI, quantum technology, and high-end manufacturing [7] - The development of future industries relies heavily on original innovation and disruptive technologies, which are still in early stages [7] - Policies are increasingly systematic and comprehensive, supporting innovation from inception to market application [7] Group 8 - NIO's chip subsidiary, Anhui Shenji Technology Co., completed its first round of equity financing, raising 2.257 billion yuan, with a post-investment valuation nearing 10 billion yuan [8] - The financing attracted diverse capital participation, including state-owned capital and semiconductor industry funds, indicating market confidence in the company's technology and production capabilities [8] - The involvement of local state capital aligns with Hefei's ongoing investment in the integrated circuit industry [8]

Group 1 - Sony's stock price surged by 7% on February 27 [2]

今日提示 ·国务院新闻办公室将于2月27日下午3时举行国务院政策例行吹风会，介绍2025年国务院部门办理全国 人大代表建议和全国政协提案工作有关情况。 ·2026银发文旅创新发展大会暨全域生态融合产业展于2月27日举办。 ·国际指数编制公司MSCI近日公布了2026年2月的指数季度调整结果，MSCI中国A股指数新纳入33只股 票，同时剔除9只股票。本次调整于2月27日收盘后生效。 ·多瑞医药发布王庆太、曹晓兵要约收购结果。本次要约收购完成后，收购人及其一致行动人共计持有 多瑞医药53.90%的股权，公司股权分布仍符合上市条件，上市地位不受影响。公司股票2月27日起复 牌。 上证精选 ·国家能源局发布通知，决定将安徽省淮南市风光热储融合系统友好型新能源电站项目等43个项目、河 北省张家口市等10个城市列为新型电力系统建设能力提升试点（第一批）。 ·国家卫生健康委、农业农村部、市场监管总局近日联合发布《食品安全国家标准食品中农药最大残留 限量》（GB 2763—2026），自2026年3月1日起实施。 ·2025年，我国民用运输机场三大主要生产指标再创历史新高，全年完成旅客吞吐量152904.6万人次、货 邮吞吐 ...

2月以来，各类机构调研上市公司动作频频。Wind数据显示，截至2月26日中国证券报记者发稿时，2月 以来已有近240家公司接待各类机构调研。2月以来，A股整体维持高位震荡态势，前述被机构调研公司 中，过半数在同时期取得正收益，部分标的2月以来累计涨幅超过80%，表现远超市场主要股指。 天顺风能最受青睐 Wind数据显示，在2月26日实现20%涨停后，欧莱新材2月以来累计涨幅已扩大至81.11%，涨幅在同期 接待机构调研的上市公司中遥遥领先。作为一家主营高性能溅射靶材研发、生产和销售的上市公司，欧 莱新材在新兴业务领域的开拓情况如何、公司盈利水平在原材料涨价趋势下如何变化等话题受到机构关 注。 从行业分布情况看，机械设备、电子行业继续成为机构2月重点调研的方向，基础化工等周期风格板块 同样获得机构高度关注。对于相关领域后市投资机遇，当前机构较为看好人形机器人、上游AI基建核 心赛道、兼具高弹性和高股息优势的部分化工板块标的等。 在经历持续调整后，2025年底以来，天顺风能股价持续反弹，仅2026年2月以来便累计上涨近32%。作 为一家业务涵盖风电及海工装备制造、风电场开发建设与运营的上市公司，天顺风能2月以来累 ...

在经历持续调整后，2025年底以来，天顺风能股价持续反弹，仅2026年2月以来便累计上涨近32%。作 为一家业务涵盖风电及海工装备制造、风电场开发建设与运营的上市公司，天顺风能2月以来累计接待 237家机构调研，数量在同期接待机构调研的上市公司中高居第一。从公司披露的调研纪要看，公司 2026年出货量如何、针对海外业务的产品或服务模式定位等话题受到关注。 2月以来，各类机构调研上市公司动作频频。Wind数据显示，截至2月26日中国证券报记者发稿时，2月 以来已有近240家公司接待各类机构调研。2月以来，A股整体维持高位震荡态势，前述被机构调研公司 中，过半数在同时期取得正收益，部分标的2月以来累计涨幅超过80%，表现远超市场主要股指。 从行业分布情况看，机械设备、电子行业继续成为机构2月重点调研的方向，基础化工等周期风格板块 同样获得机构高度关注。对于相关领域后市投资机遇，当前机构较为看好人形机器人、上游AI基建核 心赛道、兼具高弹性和高股息优势的部分化工板块标的等。 ● 本报记者 胡雨 天顺风能最受青睐 其他2月涨幅明显的标的中，赛恩斯2月以来累计上涨近62%，其共接待了58家机构调研；百川股份、泽 润新能 ...

当天上午9点04分，富时中国A50指数期货在夜盘收涨0.3%的基础上低开，但很快转为上涨0.26%。这看起来是一个平静的开局。然而，开盘后不到一个小 时，情况急转直下。到了上午10点10分左右，A50期指盘中跌幅已经超过1%。从上涨0.52%到下跌1.13%，它在短时间内完成了一次幅度接近1.8%的跳水。 而且，这次跳水发生的时间点非常精准，几乎与港股市场开盘后的走势同步。 更让人困惑的是，即使后来A股大盘一度翻红，A50期指依然没有拉回来。盘中大多数时间，它都在下跌0.90%左右震荡。从更长的周期来看，这个代表中 国核心资产的期指已经持续下跌了近两个月。据市场数据显示，其价格从15670点附近一路下滑至14664点，累计跌幅达到6.5%。这种持续的阴跌，让很多 通过它来观察A股前景的投资者感到不安。 几乎在同一时间，香港股市上演了更加惨烈的一幕。恒生指数在上午开盘时还上涨了1.05%，国企指数上涨0.53%，恒生科技指数上涨0.52%。但这仅仅是昙 花一现。开盘价成了全天的最高点，随后指数一路向下，几乎没有任何像样的反弹。收盘时，恒生指数报26381.02点，下跌384.7点，跌幅1.44%；国企指数 下跌 ...