Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - A-shares stabilized and rebounded, while commodities showed differentiation. The fundamentals in July remained resilient, with economic data in China and the US showing a mixed picture. Powell's attitude turned dovish, which may pave the way for a Fed rate cut in September. The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and the volatility of commodity prices may remain high. The strategy is to go long on industrial products on dips [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, the global economic data remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while the non-manufacturing sector maintained expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year in US dollars, higher than expected. The money supply in financial data exceeded expectations, but the financing and loan data were still weak. Investment data in economic data still faced significant pressure. On August 29, more than 2,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets were in the green. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.97 trillion yuan, a decrease of more than 190 billion yuan from the previous trading day. In the bond market, Treasury bond futures tumbled in the afternoon, with the 30-year main contract falling more than 0.7%. In the commodity market, domestic commodity futures continued to decline, with the container shipping index falling more than 3% and lithium carbonate once falling more than 5%. The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1385 on August 28, up 237 points from the previous trading day. In the US, the non-farm payrolls data in July was below expectations, but the PMI in August continued to improve [1] Tariff Policies - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset the "reciprocal tariff" rate standards for some countries. On August 19, the US Commerce Department announced that 407 product categories would be included in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tariff rate. Trump said he would announce semiconductor tariffs within two weeks, with a possible rate of 300%. He also threatened to impose about 200% tariffs on China for rare earth magnet supplies and implement export restrictions and tariff measures against foreign digital taxes. The EU reiterated its right to formulate digital rules and refuted the US accusations. The EU plans to legislate to cancel US industrial product tariffs this week to exchange for the US to lower automobile tariffs. The US's 50% tariff increase on India has officially taken effect, and Indian exporters said a large number of orders have been cancelled [2] Central Bank Stances - On August 22, Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting turned dovish. He believed that the current situation means that the downside risk to employment has increased, and this change in the risk balance may mean that the policy stance needs to be adjusted. He clearly abandoned the 2020 flexible average inflation target framework and emphasized that the idea of "intentionally allowing inflation to moderately overshoot" is no longer applicable. After Powell's dovish turn, it paves the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, making the path of rising overseas inflation smoother. The European Central Bank's July meeting minutes showed that officials believed the inflation risk was "generally balanced" [2] Commodity Analysis - The black and new energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to the domestic supply side. The energy and non-ferrous sectors are more significantly benefited from overseas inflation expectations. Fundamentally, the black sector is still dragged down by the downstream demand expectation, and attention should be paid to the fact of "anti-involution". The supply constraint in the non-ferrous sector has not been alleviated. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is also worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term, but they still need to wait for signals from the fundamentals. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are still weak, and a cautious attitude should be maintained towards the implementation of current policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may still be high [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on industrial products on dips [4] To-Do List - The main goal is to make important progress in the construction of a modern people's city by 2030, with continuous improvement of policies and systems suitable for high-quality urban development, accelerated transformation of old and new driving forces, obvious improvement of living quality, in-depth promotion of green transformation, strong consolidation of the safety foundation, full display of cultural charm, and significant improvement of governance level; basically build a modern people's city by 2035 [6] Market Trends - The market rebounded after hitting a low during the day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 1% at the end of the session, the ChiNext Index rose more than 3%, and the STAR 50 Index soared more than 7%. More stocks rose than fell, with more than 2,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets in the green. The total turnover today reached 3 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.82% [6] Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar officially closed at 7.1385 at 16:30 Beijing time, up 237 points from the official closing price of the previous trading day and up 115 points from the night session closing price of the previous day [6] Legal Dispute - On August 28, Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit in court, challenging President Trump's attempt to remove her from office on the grounds of fraud in her mortgage application. This move has triggered a historic legal battle over the Fed's independence [6] Economic Data - The revised annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the second quarter was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the previous 3%. The revised annualized quarterly growth rate of the US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index in the second quarter was 2.5%, in line with expectations and the previous value. Data shows that the US economic growth rate in the second quarter was slightly faster than the initial level, thanks to the rebound in corporate investment and strong trade. Net exports contributed nearly 5 percentage points to GDP, a record high; previously, net exports dragged down GDP growth in the first three months of this year [6] Central Bank Meeting Minutes - The European Central Bank's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed the inflation risk was "generally balanced", and their outlook for consumer prices still applied. The meeting summary released on Thursday showed that although further interest rate cuts were mentioned, keeping the deposit rate at 2% after eight interest rate cuts was considered a "prudent" approach. "Most members believed that the risks to the inflation outlook were generally balanced. The resilience shown in recent eurozone economic data has been fully reflected in the baseline scenario of the June forecast, and this forecast has been widely verified. Most policymakers believed that the current interest rate level was reasonable, the inflation rate was maintained around the 2% target, and the economy has so far shown resilience to headwinds such as tariffs and wars. In July, the EU and the US reached a trade agreement, locking in a 15% tariff for most export commodities in the region [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Moderately bullish, suggesting selling put options on MO2509 with an execution price around 6600 when the price is high [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Suggesting short - term wait - and - see [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, constructing a bull spread strategy through call options when the price is low; for silver, maintaining a low - long approach or constructing a bull spread option strategy [2]. - **Shipping Index (EC - Europe Line)**: Bearish, suggesting holding short positions in the 10 - contract [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Bearish, suggesting short - selling opportunities for steel contracts in the 3380 - 3400 range and short - selling iron ore when the price is high [2]. - **Coking Coal, Coke**: Bearish, suggesting short - selling when the price is high [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract referring to 78000 - 79500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 20000 - 21000 [2]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Various strategies such as short - selling when high, low - long, or wait - and - see are recommended according to different metal conditions [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Bearish, suggesting a short - term bearish approach and expanding the spread between the 10 - 11/12 contracts when the price is low [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand and price trends, including short - selling, range trading, and constructing spread strategies [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Grains and Oilseeds**: Long - term bullish for meal, suggesting long - term multi - position layout; bearish for corn, suggesting short - selling when the price is high [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Bullish for the near - term of pigs, with enhanced support; bearish for eggs, suggesting holding short positions [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended according to the supply - demand situation, such as short - selling when the price rebounds for sugar and holding short positions for cotton [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Bearish for glass and soda ash, suggesting holding short positions; wait - and - see for rubber and industrial silicon [2]. - **New Energy**: Wait - and - see for polysilicon; cautious wait - and - see for lithium carbonate, with a suggestion of lightly testing long positions at low prices in the short - term [2]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their price trends, supply - demand changes, and market sentiment [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market - **Equity Index**: The TMT sector is booming, and the equity index has risen sharply with increased trading volume. However, the improvement of corporate profits needs to be verified by mid - year report data [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The real stabilization of the bond market requires signals from the central bank to protect liquidity and the peak - turning of the stock market, and the timing is uncertain [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Strategies such as constructing spread strategies and low - long are recommended [2]. Commodity Market - **Shipping Index**: The EC (Europe Line) index is in a weak oscillation, and short positions in the 10 - contract are recommended to be held [2]. - **Black Commodities**: Steel prices have fallen below support, and iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices are also under pressure. Short - selling strategies are recommended [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are in a narrow - range oscillation or under pressure, with different trading strategies recommended according to their specific situations [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by supply expectations, and chemical product prices are influenced by supply - demand and cost factors, with corresponding trading strategies provided [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different supply - demand situations, and trading strategies such as long - term multi - position layout, short - selling when the price is high, and holding short positions are recommended [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Glass and soda ash are in a weak market, while rubber and industrial silicon need further observation [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate markets are affected by various factors, and wait - and - see or cautious trading strategies are recommended [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Each report presents data and analysis on different futures markets, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and a trading calendar, without a unified core view. 3. Summary by Report Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **IF, IH, IC, and IM Futures**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles of spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is 37.60% with a change of - 9.16 [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Provides cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 1000/CSI 300, etc., along with their changes and percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: Shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing for the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of TS, TF, and TL Treasury bond futures [2]. - **Inter - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents inter - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) for different Treasury bond futures, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Reports domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver on July 22 and 21. For example, the AU2510 contract rose 0.40% to 784.84 yuan/gram on July 22 [3]. - **Basis, Ratios, Yields, and Inventories**: Provides basis values, ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver), yields of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and inventory data for precious metals, along with their changes [3]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes and Indexes**: Gives spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe shipping prices and various container shipping indexes (e.g., SCFIS, SCFI), along with their changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Presents futures prices and basis values for container shipping futures contracts, along with their changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on shipping capacity supply, port performance, export volume, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [5]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas and Domestic Data/Information**: Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events to be released on July 23, including time, data source, and relevant details [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the risk appetite in the capital market has remained positive, with the prices of risk assets generally rising. Overseas, the impact of US tariffs and internal strife on the capital market has faded, while geopolitical turmoil has had little impact. US inflation data reflects the impact of tariffs, but the increase in core CPI is lower than expected, causing little disturbance to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. Most global stock markets have fluctuated and ended up rising, the BDI index has soared, the US dollar has rebounded slightly, non - US currencies are under pressure, and commodities have shown mixed performance. In China, the "anti - involution" market continues. The A - share market has stabilized above 3,500 points, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas in the commodity market has been strengthened and spread. The domestic bond market has mostly declined, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, while stock indices have generally risen. The domestic commodity market has shown mixed performance, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.84% weekly, and 8 out of 10 commodity sub - indices ending up rising [6]. - The current macro - logical mainline for domestic commodity and stock market trading is the continuation of the anti - involution market. The second - quarter macro data shows that the overall economy is resilient but the marginal trend is weakening. Real estate is still a drag, exports face challenges, consumption is the main driver, and price depression is intensifying. The market anticipates policy support, which strengthens the trading logic of the anti - involution market. The upcoming release of the "Top Ten Industry Steady - Growth Plan" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project have further strengthened the anti - involution market. However, due to economic transformation requirements, the implementation of policies will focus on structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The actual amount of eliminated production capacity may be limited, and the market trend is expected to be volatile, with hot sectors and varieties rotating rapidly. In terms of investment strategies, it is not advisable to go against the trend during the fermentation of the anti - involution market, and risks should be controlled when the market is overly optimistic [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - Asset Category - Overseas, the impact of US tariffs and internal strife on the capital market has become less significant, and geopolitical turmoil has had little impact. Most global stock markets have fluctuated and ended up rising, the BDI index has soared, the US dollar has rebounded slightly, non - US currencies are under pressure, and commodities have shown mixed performance. In China, the "anti - involution" market continues. The A - share market has stabilized above 3,500 points, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas in the commodity market has been strengthened and spread. The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project and the upcoming release of the Top Ten Industry Steady - Growth Plan have strengthened the anti - involution market, and domestic - priced commodities, especially industrial products, have seen a long - awaited general rise [11]. 2. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has mostly declined, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, while stock indices have generally risen. The domestic commodity market has shown mixed performance, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.84% weekly, and 8 out of 10 commodity sub - indices ending up rising. Except for the non - ferrous and non - metallic building materials sectors, which declined, other commodities rose. The oilseeds, coking coal, steel, and energy sectors led the gains, and the market's characteristics of strong expectations and weak reality, as well as the strength conversion between domestic and international - priced commodities, have been strengthened [16]. 3. Fund Flow - Last week, funds in the domestic commodity futures market showed a slight net inflow. The energy, precious metals, grains, oilseeds, non - metallic building materials, and soft commodity sectors saw significant fund inflows, while the non - ferrous and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant outflows [19]. 4. Variety Performance - Most domestic commodity futures rose last week. Among them, lithium carbonate, shipping index, and industrial silicon led the gains, while LPG, Shanghai lead, and urea led the losses [24]. 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index declined significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index also decreased. Most commodity sub - sectors saw a decline in volatility, with the precious metals, soft commodities, non - metallic building materials, and grain sectors experiencing a significant drop, while the energy and oilseeds sectors saw a significant increase [30]. 6. Data Tracking - Internationally, most major commodities ended up rising, the BDI index soared again, copper, soybeans, and silver rose, crude oil and corn fell, the gold price fluctuated and ended flat, and the gold - silver ratio declined. Domestically, the asphalt production rate was stable, real estate sales remained weak, freight rates declined slightly, and short - term capital interest rates rebounded and then fluctuated. In the US, bond yields rose slightly, the China - US interest rate spread was under pressure, inflation expectations rebounded significantly, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar rebounded and then fluctuated, and the RMB exchange rate was stable [32][53][69]. 7. Macro Logic - Stock indices have all risen, valuations have increased collectively, and the risk premium ERP is under pressure. Commodity price indices have fluctuated upwards, inflation expectations have rebounded, and both expectations and reality have risen. In the US, the yield curve of Treasury bonds has become steeper, the term spread is stable, and both real interest rates and the gold price are oscillating at high levels. The US high - frequency "recession indicator" shows a split trend, the impact of tariffs on the economy is not obvious, and the 10Y - 3M Treasury bond spread fluctuates around zero [37][45][61]. 8. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5% in July is 93.6%, slightly lower than last week's 94.7%. The probability of an interest rate cut starting in September is not high, and the highest probability scenario is two 25 - basis - point cuts in October or December, totaling 50 basis points for the year [75]. 9. US CPI Data - In June, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 2.6% and higher than May's 2.4%, marking the largest year - on - year increase since February. The month - on - month increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than May's 0.1%. After excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, accelerating from May's 0.1%. The year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.9%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 3%. Some commodity prices have risen, indicating the impact of US tariff policies, while the decline in used and new car prices has hindered the rise of core CPI [83]. 10. China's First - Half Macro - Economic Data - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% respectively. In the second quarter, the GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter. The overall economy is resilient but the marginal trend is weakening, with real estate being a drag, exports facing challenges, and consumption driving growth [92]. 11. China's CPI and PPI Data - In June, China's CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, ending three consecutive months of decline, while the PPI decline widened to - 3.6%, remaining negative for 33 consecutive months. The continuous divergence between CPI and PPI reveals the complex structural roots of deflationary pressure in the Chinese economy. The decline in PPI is due to over - capacity, weak demand, and external shocks. The market anticipates policy support to break the deflationary spiral, which strengthens the trading logic of the anti - involution market [96][97]. 12. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Plan - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of steady - growth plans for ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. The plan also includes supporting key industrial provinces to play a leading role. The background for the plan is the challenges faced by the industrial economy, and the approach is to combine steady - growth and transformation. Steady - growth aims to consolidate the foundation, while transformation focuses on improving development quality and cultivating new growth drivers. The plan will also optimize the development environment [101][104]. 13. Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project - The Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project officially started on July 19, 2025, in Nyingchi, Tibet. With a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, it plans to build five cascade power stations with a total installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts and an estimated annual power generation of about 300 billion kilowatt - hours. The project is crucial for national energy security and achieving the "dual - carbon" goal, can drive regional development, create employment opportunities, and enhance geopolitical influence. Its commencement, together with the upcoming industry plan, has strengthened the anti - involution market [108][110][111]. 14. This Week's Focus - Monday (July 21): China's 1 - year/5 - year loan prime rates, Japanese stock market closed. Tuesday (July 22): ECB releases bank lending survey report, Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speak at a large - bank capital framework review meeting. Wednesday (July 23): Eurozone consumer confidence index for July, Trump may give a speech on artificial intelligence. Thursday (July 24): ECB announces interest rate decision and holds a press conference by President Lagarde, Eurozone PMI. Friday (July 25): Tokyo CPI for July in Japan, Russian central bank announces interest rate decision [115].

资产配置与金融工程 证券研究报告 地缘风险下的资产再平衡 ——大类资产周报（20250616-20250622） 分析师：朱定豪 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020521120002 邮箱：zhudinghao@gyzq.com.cn 2025年6月23日 分析师：汤静文 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020524060001 邮箱：tangjingwen@gyzq.com.cn 联系人：黄雯瑜 邮箱：huangwenyu@gyzq.com.cn 摘要 一、本周大类资产交易主线 地缘冲突主导能源走强，但避险资产分化，中东局势升级推升原油（布油+2.09%）、天然气（+10.72%）大涨，霍尔木兹 海峡风险溢价强化能源趋势，黄金逆势跌1.98%，因美元走强及降息预期推迟压制无息资产；A股承压但大盘抗跌，高股息 防御占优；债市走强，流动性改善驱动杠杆策略。商品时序动量强化，截面多空策略受益于能源强/黑色弱格局，集运指数 大跌10.66%，需求证伪压制运价。美国经济意外指数跌至-23.3，美元微涨，人民币抗压（CNH微升），政策护航对冲外部 风险。 二、大类资产配置建议 债市（6）：资金宽松+情绪乐观支撑杠杆和久 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as international political situations, central bank policies, and seasonal demand changes. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, the stock index is under回调 pressure due to international uncertainties, while the bond market may be affected by central bank operations and cross - quarter factors. Precious metals face "滞涨" due to the difficult loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, and various commodity futures have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [2][8][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market declined across the board on Thursday, with all major indexes down. The four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is affected by international news such as the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate decision. It is recommended to wait and see and observe the basis state of the futures contracts [2][3][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The money market showed a slight convergence, and the Fed's interest rate decision had an impact on the market. It is recommended to allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to the TS2509 contract positive arbitrage strategy, and consider the curve steepening strategy when the conditions are right [7][8]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market showed "滞涨" due to the Fed's difficult - to - loosen monetary policy. Gold may have a callback risk in the short term, while silver may have an upward space if inflation expectations rise. It is recommended to hold short - call options on gold and pay attention to the impact of the Middle East situation on silver [12][13]. Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract continued to fluctuate. The weak price increase of some airlines in July affected the bullish sentiment on the disk. It is expected that the 08 contract will remain in a volatile market in the short term, with the main operation range of 1900 - 2200 [15][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market had weak driving forces and narrow - range fluctuations. The macro - economic outlook was weak, but the supply - side raw materials were tight, and the inventory was low. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main reference range of 77000 - 80000 [16][17][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was in a weak and volatile state. The inventory increased, and the downstream consumption entered the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 21000 - 21500, and the short - term view is weak and volatile [20][22][23]. - **Tin**: The tin price was in a high - level shock under strong reality. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the demand was expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high levels around 260000 - 265000 based on inventory and import data inflection points [24][26]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market had a slight rebound, but the fundamentals changed little. The industry was over - supplied, and consumption was sluggish. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [27][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market had a small increase at a low level, but the fundamentals remained weak. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12400 - 13000 [30][32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market continued to fluctuate narrowly, and the fundamentals still had pressure. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was difficult to boost in the off - season. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000 [33][36]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price was in a weak and volatile state. The basis was weak, and the demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options, with hot - rolled coils and rebar respectively paying attention to the pressure at 3150 and 3050 yuan [38][39]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market had a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure was expected to increase in the off - season, and the iron water output was expected to decline. The 09 contract is considered bearish in the medium - long term, with the price range of 720 - 670 [40][42]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market had a weak and stable operation. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand had some resilience. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 800 - 850 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [42][45]. - **Coke**: The coke market had a third - round price cut, and there was an expectation of a fourth - round cut. The supply decreased marginally, and the demand was slightly recovered. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 1380 - 1430 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [47][48]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron market had a slight rebound, but the supply - demand pattern was loose. The cost was expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [49][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon market had a bottom - range shock. The supply pressure remained, and the cost was difficult to stabilize. It is recommended to short on rebounds [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The soybean meal market was oscillating strongly. The US soybean was supported by the rise of US soybean oil, and the domestic soybean meal was supported by the cost of US soybean. It is expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about chasing high [56][58]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig price was slightly oscillating. The demand was weak due to hot weather, and the supply - demand improvement was not good. The market had no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward drive was also weak [59][60]. - **Corn**: The corn price was in a high - level shock. The supply was tight in the short term, and the price was strong, but the upward momentum weakened after the price increase. In the long term, the supply - demand gap supported the price increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the wheat market and policy releases [61][62].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 19 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships across different sectors. Short - term market movements are often influenced by news and events, while long - term trends depend on fundamental factors [2][4]. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - The index has stable lower support but faces pressure to break through the upper level. Tariff negotiations are ongoing, causing short - term fluctuations due to news. High dividends support the market, resulting in narrow - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see for now and try to sell out - of - the - money put options with a strike price of 5800 in July to earn premiums [2]. Treasury Bonds - With loose capital and strong market expectations for the central bank to restart bond purchases, the overall Treasury bond futures are rising, with the short - end being stronger. Attention should be paid to the content of the Lujiazui Forum. If expected policies are implemented, it may drive the curve to steepen bullishly. In the unilateral strategy, Treasury bond futures can be appropriately allocated with long positions on dips [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may approach the previous high of around $3450 (¥800) if the Israel - Iran conflict escalates again. If the safe - haven sentiment weakens and the price fails to break through the previous high, out - of - the - money call options on gold can be sold at high prices. Silver still has upward potential under inflation expectations influenced by the Middle East situation on energy prices [2]. Shipping Index - The EC2508 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is oscillating narrowly in the range of 1900 - 2200. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now [2]. Steel - For industrial steel, demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the decline in hot metal production has narrowed, and the arrival volume has reached a high level. It can be shorted on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. For coking coal, the market auction failure rate has decreased, coal mine production has declined from a high level, and the spot market is weakly stable with improved trading and better expectations. For coke, the third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further cuts, with the price approaching the bottom. Arbitrage strategies such as going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper shows weak momentum and narrow - range oscillations. Zinc's price center has moved down, and inventory depletion provides support. Nickel's sentiment is low, and the price continues to test lower levels, with little change in fundamentals. Stainless steel's price is in a downward trend, and its fundamentals are weak. For tin, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm, and a short - selling strategy from high levels can be adopted based on inventory and import data inflection points [2]. Energy and Chemicals - For oil, due to high geopolitical uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. WTI's upper resistance has expanded to [73, 74], and Brent's upper - end pressure is in [74, 75], while SC's pressure is in [540, 550]. For urea, there is short - term technical correction pressure, and the upside space needs to be verified by news. For PX, short - term support is strong, and short - long positions can be taken, while considering narrowing the PX - SC spread. For PTA, it is slightly bullish in a narrow - range oscillation, and short - long positions are recommended, along with arbitrage strategies. For PF, short - term processing fees have slightly recovered but with limited momentum. For bottle chips, processing fees may bottom - out and rebound during the peak demand season. For ethylene glycol, the shutdown of Iranian plants has boosted the price, and short - term attention should be paid to the 4450 pressure. For styrene, short - term energy disturbances cause oscillating and repeating movements, and mid - term short - selling opportunities based on raw material resonance should be sought. For caustic soda, the alumina purchase price has continuously declined, and the market is looking for a bottom. For PVC, short - term contradictions are not intensified, and it is in a low - level consolidation phase. For synthetic rubber, it has stopped falling and rebounded due to international geopolitical conflicts. For LLDPE, the spot price has risen slightly with neutral trading. For PP, it is in a weak supply - demand situation and oscillates weakly. For methanol, inventory continues to accumulate, and the basis is stable [2][4]. Agricultural Products - For grains and oilseeds, the new US soybean crop is in good condition, and the market oscillates. For hogs, due to weakening demand in hot weather, the price oscillates slightly. For corn, it lacks the power to continue rising and oscillates at a high level. For palm oil, it is expected to optimistically hit 8500 points in the short term. For sugar, overseas supply is expected to be loose, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended. For cotton, the downstream market is weak, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable. For eggs, the spot market is weak, with a bottom - rebound and then short - selling trend. For apples, trading is weak. For dates, the market price is weakly stable. For peanuts, the market price is high. For soda ash, the oversupply logic persists, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, the spot market sales have improved, and the short - term market has support. For rubber, the continuous rebound of crude oil has driven up the rubber price. For industrial silicon, the futures are oscillating in a low - level range [2][3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, futures have declined with reduced positions. For lithium, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [3].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 13 日星期五 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 2025 年 6 月 13 日星期五 [股指期货 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The index has stable support below and pressure to break through above. It is affected by news in the short - term and will continue neutral oscillation after the fluctuations subside. TMT has become popular again, and all major A - share indices have closed higher [2]. - 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond interest rates are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges. The short - end varieties of treasury bonds are relatively strong [2]. - Gold has resistance at the previous high of $3430, and silver has broken through the resistance of last year's high and is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a volatile consolidation phase [2]. - Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory, and iron ore and coke are in different market conditions [2]. - Gold and silver are differentiated. Gold has resistance at the previous high, and silver is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Category Stock Index - Index short - term is affected by news, and after the fluctuations subside, it continues neutral oscillation. TMT is popular again, and all major A - share indices close higher. It is recommended to mainly wait and see and sell put options on the CSI 1000 index with an execution price around 5700 in July to collect the premium [2]. Treasury Bond - 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%, and 30 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.95%. It is recommended to conduct interval band operations for the unilateral strategy and wait and see for now. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract for the spot - futures strategy, and pay attention to the opportunity of band steepening for the curve strategy [2]. Precious Metals - Gold has resistance at the previous high of $3430, and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold options on both sides can be adopted after the volatility increases. Silver has broken through the resistance of last year's high of $34.8 and is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a volatile consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously, and the 08 contract is expected to oscillate between 2050 - 2250 points [2]. Steel - Industrial materials demand and inventory are poor. Pay attention to the decline range of apparent demand. Unilateral operations are mainly on hold, and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of buying finished products and shorting raw materials [2]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is in an interval oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change of terminal demand [2]. Coke - Mainstream steel mills started the third round of price cuts on June 4. Coke is weak and making concessions, and the futures have advanced rebound expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Coking Coal - The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, and coal mine production has declined from a high level. The spot price may still fall, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Copper - The CL spread has widened again, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - Domestic and overseas inventories are increasing simultaneously, and the zinc price is oscillating weakly. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [2]. Nickel - The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2]. Stainless Steel - The market maintains oscillation, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [2]. Tin - The supply recovery progress is slow, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The tin price continues to rebound. After the sentiment stabilizes, a short - selling strategy from high levels is recommended [2]. Crude Oil - The conversation between Chinese and US leaders has eased market concerns. The market is likely to oscillate in the short - term. A band strategy is recommended in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see during the oscillation period. The upper pressure for WTI is [64, 66], for Brent is [67, 69], and for SC is [475, 485] [2]. Urea - The upstream inventory continues to increase in the short - term, and the export scale is difficult to increase for the time being, with limited support for the market. A band strategy is recommended in the long - term, and it is still bottom - grinding in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for rebound opportunities. The main contract is expected to fluctuate around [1740, 1850] [2]. PX - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but there is still support due to the tight spot situation. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 6500 - 6900 range, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. The PTA price has support at low levels. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 4600 - 4900 range and conduct reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 when it is high [2]. Short - fiber - Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral operation of PF is the same as that of PTA, and it is recommended to expand the processing fee at the low level of the PF disk [2]. Bottle - chip - During the peak demand season, there is a production - reduction expectation for bottle - chips, and the processing fee is supported. PR follows the cost fluctuation. The processing fee of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand it at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - The port inventory continues to decline. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity. It is recommended to buy at around 4200 for EG09 and conduct positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 at low levels [2]. Styrene - In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the opportunity of raw material resonance decline. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels and pay attention to the raw material resonance opportunity [2]. Caustic Soda - The alumina procurement supports the spot price. Attention should be paid to the inventory and cost. The 7 - 9 positive arbitrage position should be held [2]. PVC - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively relieve. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Indian BIS policy in June. A high - level short - selling strategy is recommended [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR follows the commodity price fluctuation. The short position of BR2507 should be reduced [2]. LLDPE - The spot price has risen with the market, and the trading volume is moderate [2]. PP - The supply and demand are both weak, and it is in a weak oscillation. A short - selling strategy from high levels gradually is recommended [2]. Methanol - The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillation phase [2]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - CBOT has stabilized, and the two are oscillating. M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3000 [2]. Live Pig - The demand is weak after the festival, and the spot price is under pressure again. Attention should be paid to the performance around 13500 [2]. Corn - The spot price is relatively stable, and the corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is expected to oscillate around 2330 in the short - term [2]. Palm Oil - The production has increased, and the market is in an oscillating consolidation phase. Palm oil is expected to test the support at 8000 in the short - term [2]. Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. Egg - The spot price may weaken again. A short - selling strategy on rebounds for the 07 contract is recommended, and short positions should be held [2]. Apple - The bagging is in progress, and the trading is priced according to quality. The main contract is expected to run around 7700 [2]. Jujube - The market price is weakly stable and is in a bottom - building phase [2]. Peanut - The market price is oscillating. The main contract is expected to run around 8400 [2]. Soda Ash - The oversupply logic continues. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended, and short positions should be held. A 7 - 9 positive arbitrage strategy between months is recommended [2]. Glass - The market sentiment has reversed, and the market has rebounded. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. Rubber - The market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price continues to rebound. A short - selling strategy on rebounds above 14000 is recommended [2]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and declined slightly [2]. Polysilicon - The spot price has stabilized, and the polysilicon futures have declined in an oscillating manner. If there are long positions, it is recommended to close them first [2]. Lithium Carbonate - The sentiment is temporarily stable, and the market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract is expected to run between 56,000 - 62,000 [2].