Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals futures and spot prices, and container shipping industry indices. These data provide insights into market trends and price movements of different financial instruments. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price Differences**: On December 1, 2025, the IF spot - futures spread was -20.86, the IC spot - futures spread was -57.35, and the IM spot - futures spread was 73.41. There were also various inter - period spreads and cross - product ratios presented, such as the IC/IF ratio at 1.5478 [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the IRR of some bonds had certain changes. For example, the TF basis was 1.5719, the T basis was 1.4880, and the TL basis was 1.8420. There were also inter - period spreads and cross - product spreads among different bond futures contracts [2]. Precious Metals Futures and Spot - **Price Changes**: On November 28, 2025, domestic futures prices of precious metals like AU2602 increased by 0.71% to 953.92 yuan/gram, AG2602 rose by 1.61% to 12727 yuan/kilogram. In the foreign market, COMEX gold increased by 1.44% to 4256.40 dollars/ounce. There were also data on spot prices, basis, and price ratios [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Index Movements**: As of November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (European route) increased by 20.75% to 1639.37 points, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 10.54% to 1107.85 points. There were also data on shipping rates, futures prices, and fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply and port - related indicators [5].

Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Core Data Summary - **Futures-Spot Price Spread**: F futures-spot price spread is -22.80, with a 1.82 change from the previous day, and historical 1-year and all-time percentiles of 40.50% and 20.30% respectively. Other contracts like H, IC, and IM also have corresponding futures-spot price spreads and percentile data [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: Different contracts such as F, H, and K have various inter - delivery spreads between different months (e.g., next month - current month, far month - current month), along with their changes from the previous day and percentile data [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/F, etc., are presented, including their latest values, changes from the previous day, and percentile data [1]. Report on Bond Futures Basis and Spread Daily Core Data Summary - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.6325, with a -0.0595 change from the previous day and a 28.60% percentile since listing. Similar data is provided for TF, T, and TL bases [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For different contracts (TS, TF, T, TL), inter - delivery spreads between different quarters (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) are given, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different bond futures contracts (e.g., TS - TF, TS - T) are presented, including their values, changes, and percentiles [2]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Futures and Spot Daily Core Data Summary - **Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) increased by 20.75% from 1357.67 on November 17th to 1639.37 on November 24th, while SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 10.54%. The SCFI composite index decreased by 2.92% [3]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The price of the EC2602 (main contract) increased by 0.02%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 29.73% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply increased by 0.01%. Shanghai port on - time rate increased by 14.75%, and the monthly export amount decreased by 7.03% [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].

Report Summary of Futures Market Data 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core View The reports present a comprehensive set of data on various futures markets including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures. These data cover price differences, ratios, yields, exchange rates, inventories, and other relevant indicators, providing investors with a basis for analyzing market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The reports detail the price differences between futures and spot prices, as well as across different contract months for IF, IH, IC, and IM stock index futures. For example, the IF period - spot price difference is -9.27, and the H period - spot price difference is 3.65 [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: Each price difference is accompanied by its historical percentile over the past year and the entire futures - listing period, helping investors understand the relative position of the current price difference [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 300, IC/IF, and others are provided, with their changes and historical percentiles [1]. Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: Information on the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis for different bond futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) is given, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) are presented, including their values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Price and Spread**: The reports include domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of gold and silver. For instance, the AU2512 contract closed at 921.92 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4077.20 dollars [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate, and inventories of precious metals in different exchanges are provided [3]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies (MAERSK, CMA, MSC, etc.) are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes such as SCFIS (European and US West routes) and Shanghai export container freight indexes (SCFI) are given, showing their growth rates [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2512, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are reported, along with their changes [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Information on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (quasi - punctuality rate, berthing situation), monthly export balance, and overseas economic indicators (eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, etc.) is provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports 2. Core Views - The reports provide daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, covering price differences, spreads, spot prices, and related economic indicators [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: IF, IH, IC, and IM期现价差, with values such as IF期现价差 at 11.70% and changes like -31.62 compared to the previous day [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Various inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM, e.g., IF跨期价差次月 - 当月 at - 16.60 with a change of - 3.00 [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like 中证500/沪深300 at 1.5648 with a change of 0.0074 [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: IRR values and basis for TS, TF, T, and TL, e.g., TS基差 at 0.2010 on 2025 - 10 - 27 with a change of - 0.0023 [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads for different periods of TS, TF, T, and TL, such as TS跨期价差当季 - 下季 at 0.0900 with a change of 0.0120 [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different Treasury bond futures, e.g., TS - TF at - 3.3570 on 2025 - 10 - 27 with a change of - 0.0740 [2] Precious Metal Futures - **Domestic Futures**: AU2512合约 closed at 934.14 yuan/gram on October 27, down 0.42% from October 24; AG2512合约 closed at 11394 yuan/kilogram, up 0.55% [3] - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX黄金主力合约 closed at 3997.00, down 3.15%; COMEX白银主力合约 closed at 46.83 dollars/ounce, down 3.26% [3] - **Spot Prices**: London gold at 4111.56, down 0.36%; London silver at 48.62 dollars/ounce, down 0.47% [3] - **Basis**: Gold TD - 沪金主力 at - 3.85 with a change of - 1.08 and a 1 - year historical percentile of 21.60% [3] Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route, e.g., MAERSK马士基 at 2358 dollars/FEU on October 28, down 0.25% from October 27 [4] - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) at 1312.71 on October 27, up 15.11% from October 20; SCFIS (US West route) at 1107.32, up 28.24% [4] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 at 1571.6, down 1.84%; the basis of the main contract (EC2512) at - 167.6, with a change of 28.7 and a percentage change of - 14.62% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container运力供给 at 3328.67 FTEU on October 28, with a negligible change; Shanghai port准班率 at 42.77 in September, up 133.59% from August [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings by Industry - **Macro Finance**: - Stock Index: Bullish in the short term, with potential risks from tariff policy fluctuations [1] - Treasury Bonds: Neutral, with asset shortage and weak economy favorable but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks [1] - Precious Metals: Cautiously bullish on short - term rebound, but high - level volatility risks exist [1] - Copper: Bullish, supported by supply disruptions and improved macro - liquidity [1] - Other Metals: Varying degrees of bullish, bearish, or neutral depending on specific market conditions [1] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - Most metals are rated as "Oscillating", with specific market factors influencing short - term trends [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, driven by seasonal demand and supply - demand imbalance [1] - **Black Metals**: - Most products are rated as "Oscillating" or "Weak", with unclear industrial drivers and high inventory in some cases [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm Oil: Mixed signals, with a wait - and - see approach for now [1] - Other products: Varying ratings based on supply - demand, policy, and international trade factors [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Most products are rated as "Oscillating", "Weak", or "Bearish", affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, geopolitical situation, and production status [1] - **Other**: - Shipping: Potential for a rebound at low levels, with expectations of stabilizing [1] 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market is generally affected by factors such as Sino - US trade friction, central bank policies, and supply - demand dynamics across different industries. Uncertainty persists, leading to a mix of bullish, bearish, and oscillating trends in various sectors [1] - **Specific Industry Drivers**: - In the non - ferrous metals industry, supply disruptions and policy changes are key factors [1] - In the black metals industry, unclear industrial drivers and high inventory are major concerns [1] - In the agricultural products industry, international trade policies, supply - demand balance, and seasonal factors play important roles [1] - In the energy and chemicals industry, geopolitical situation, production capacity, and demand seasonality are significant drivers [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term bullish, but beware of tariff policy fluctuations and pay attention to the potential Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks may limit upward movement [1] - **Precious Metals**: Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks boost the rebound, but high - level volatility risks remain [1] - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and improved macro - liquidity support the upward trend [1] - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own unique supply - demand and market factors influencing its short - term trend [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Most Metals**: Oscillating, affected by factors such as Sino - US trade friction, supply disruptions, and inventory levels [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bullish, driven by the approaching peak season for new energy vehicles, strong energy storage demand, and overall supply - demand imbalance [1] Black Metals - **Most Products**: Oscillating or weak, with unclear industrial drivers, high inventory, and supply - demand imbalances [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Similar logic, with short - term price exploration not over, but chasing short positions is not advisable [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Mixed signals, with news of Indonesian export regulations favoring far - month contracts, while near - month contracts lack new drivers [1] - **Other Products**: Varying trends based on international trade policies, supply - demand balance, and seasonal factors [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Most Products**: Oscillating, weak, or bearish, affected by factors such as OPEC production policies, geopolitical situation, and demand seasonality [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, etc.**: Each product has its own specific supply - demand and production - related factors influencing its price [1] Other - **Shipping**: Potential for a rebound at low levels, with expectations of stabilizing as it enters the换月节奏 and approaches the full - cost line [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the volatility risks associated with commodity markets during long holidays, highlighting the need for investors to adopt a systematic risk management framework based on historical data and current volatility trends [1][7]. Historical Review of Holiday Volatility - External market fluctuations during long holidays are driven by three main factors: changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations affecting interest and exchange rates, geopolitical conflicts and supply-demand shocks, and domestic policy expectations coupled with liquidity issues in the spot market [1][2]. - Historical data indicates that approximately 70% of agricultural and black series commodities experience volatility exceeding twice the normal levels in the first week after holidays, particularly in oilseeds, energy, and non-ferrous metals [1]. Specific Commodity Performance Patterns - **Oilseeds Reversal Effect**: Data from 2010-2019 shows that soybean oil and palm oil have a 60% probability of declining in the five days before holidays, but an 80% probability of rising in the five days after, with average returns shifting from -1.5% to +2.3% [2]. - **Black Series Policy Game Characteristics**: Iron ore and rebar often face pressure before holidays due to weakened terminal demand, but can rebound quickly post-holiday if stimulated by growth policies [2]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals External Drive**: Copper and aluminum are closely linked to the London Metal Exchange, with significant price movements observed during holidays due to overseas inventory changes and dollar index fluctuations [2]. Current Volatility Classification and Risk Management Tools - Commodities are categorized into three volatility levels based on 2024-2025 predictions and historical backtesting: - **High Volatility**: Includes lithium carbonate, shipping, palm oil, and copper, with annualized volatility between 30%-60%+ and expected post-holiday gains over 8% [3][4]. - **Medium Volatility**: Comprises PTA, rebar, coal, and sugar, with annualized volatility of 15%-30%+ and potential fluctuations around ±5% [4]. - **Low Volatility**: Encompasses corn, government bonds, and live pigs, with annualized volatility below 15% and expected changes around ±3% [4]. Recommendations for Different Volatility Categories - For high volatility commodities, strategies include reducing positions and hedging with options. For example, a strategy involving "short futures + long spot" can be employed for lithium carbonate [5]. - For medium volatility commodities, buying out-of-the-money put options can be a cost-effective strategy to mitigate risks. For instance, purchasing a put option for copper can cover potential losses if prices drop significantly [5]. - For low volatility commodities, adjusting positions rather than speculating on direction is advisable, such as reducing corn holdings to maintain a base position [5]. Margin Requirements and Leverage Impact - Increased margin requirements for certain commodities, such as coking coal and lithium carbonate, necessitate additional capital to maintain positions, highlighting the importance of managing leverage to avoid forced liquidations post-holiday [6]. Conclusion - Historical data suggests that a significant portion of commodities that experience the highest gains post-holiday are often those that were undervalued before the holiday. The key risk lies in inadequate position management rather than volatility itself. Investors are advised to adjust their holdings towards a mix of low-volatility base positions and options for protection, while maintaining liquidity for potential market opportunities [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - A-shares stabilized and rebounded, while commodities showed differentiation. The fundamentals in July remained resilient, with economic data in China and the US showing a mixed picture. Powell's attitude turned dovish, which may pave the way for a Fed rate cut in September. The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and the volatility of commodity prices may remain high. The strategy is to go long on industrial products on dips [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, the global economic data remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while the non-manufacturing sector maintained expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year in US dollars, higher than expected. The money supply in financial data exceeded expectations, but the financing and loan data were still weak. Investment data in economic data still faced significant pressure. On August 29, more than 2,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets were in the green. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.97 trillion yuan, a decrease of more than 190 billion yuan from the previous trading day. In the bond market, Treasury bond futures tumbled in the afternoon, with the 30-year main contract falling more than 0.7%. In the commodity market, domestic commodity futures continued to decline, with the container shipping index falling more than 3% and lithium carbonate once falling more than 5%. The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1385 on August 28, up 237 points from the previous trading day. In the US, the non-farm payrolls data in July was below expectations, but the PMI in August continued to improve [1] Tariff Policies - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset the "reciprocal tariff" rate standards for some countries. On August 19, the US Commerce Department announced that 407 product categories would be included in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tariff rate. Trump said he would announce semiconductor tariffs within two weeks, with a possible rate of 300%. He also threatened to impose about 200% tariffs on China for rare earth magnet supplies and implement export restrictions and tariff measures against foreign digital taxes. The EU reiterated its right to formulate digital rules and refuted the US accusations. The EU plans to legislate to cancel US industrial product tariffs this week to exchange for the US to lower automobile tariffs. The US's 50% tariff increase on India has officially taken effect, and Indian exporters said a large number of orders have been cancelled [2] Central Bank Stances - On August 22, Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting turned dovish. He believed that the current situation means that the downside risk to employment has increased, and this change in the risk balance may mean that the policy stance needs to be adjusted. He clearly abandoned the 2020 flexible average inflation target framework and emphasized that the idea of "intentionally allowing inflation to moderately overshoot" is no longer applicable. After Powell's dovish turn, it paves the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, making the path of rising overseas inflation smoother. The European Central Bank's July meeting minutes showed that officials believed the inflation risk was "generally balanced" [2] Commodity Analysis - The black and new energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to the domestic supply side. The energy and non-ferrous sectors are more significantly benefited from overseas inflation expectations. Fundamentally, the black sector is still dragged down by the downstream demand expectation, and attention should be paid to the fact of "anti-involution". The supply constraint in the non-ferrous sector has not been alleviated. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is also worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term, but they still need to wait for signals from the fundamentals. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are still weak, and a cautious attitude should be maintained towards the implementation of current policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may still be high [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on industrial products on dips [4] To-Do List - The main goal is to make important progress in the construction of a modern people's city by 2030, with continuous improvement of policies and systems suitable for high-quality urban development, accelerated transformation of old and new driving forces, obvious improvement of living quality, in-depth promotion of green transformation, strong consolidation of the safety foundation, full display of cultural charm, and significant improvement of governance level; basically build a modern people's city by 2035 [6] Market Trends - The market rebounded after hitting a low during the day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 1% at the end of the session, the ChiNext Index rose more than 3%, and the STAR 50 Index soared more than 7%. More stocks rose than fell, with more than 2,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets in the green. The total turnover today reached 3 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.82% [6] Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar officially closed at 7.1385 at 16:30 Beijing time, up 237 points from the official closing price of the previous trading day and up 115 points from the night session closing price of the previous day [6] Legal Dispute - On August 28, Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit in court, challenging President Trump's attempt to remove her from office on the grounds of fraud in her mortgage application. This move has triggered a historic legal battle over the Fed's independence [6] Economic Data - The revised annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the second quarter was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the previous 3%. The revised annualized quarterly growth rate of the US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index in the second quarter was 2.5%, in line with expectations and the previous value. Data shows that the US economic growth rate in the second quarter was slightly faster than the initial level, thanks to the rebound in corporate investment and strong trade. Net exports contributed nearly 5 percentage points to GDP, a record high; previously, net exports dragged down GDP growth in the first three months of this year [6] Central Bank Meeting Minutes - The European Central Bank's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed the inflation risk was "generally balanced", and their outlook for consumer prices still applied. The meeting summary released on Thursday showed that although further interest rate cuts were mentioned, keeping the deposit rate at 2% after eight interest rate cuts was considered a "prudent" approach. "Most members believed that the risks to the inflation outlook were generally balanced. The resilience shown in recent eurozone economic data has been fully reflected in the baseline scenario of the June forecast, and this forecast has been widely verified. Most policymakers believed that the current interest rate level was reasonable, the inflation rate was maintained around the 2% target, and the economy has so far shown resilience to headwinds such as tariffs and wars. In July, the EU and the US reached a trade agreement, locking in a 15% tariff for most export commodities in the region [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Moderately bullish, suggesting selling put options on MO2509 with an execution price around 6600 when the price is high [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Suggesting short - term wait - and - see [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, constructing a bull spread strategy through call options when the price is low; for silver, maintaining a low - long approach or constructing a bull spread option strategy [2]. - **Shipping Index (EC - Europe Line)**: Bearish, suggesting holding short positions in the 10 - contract [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Bearish, suggesting short - selling opportunities for steel contracts in the 3380 - 3400 range and short - selling iron ore when the price is high [2]. - **Coking Coal, Coke**: Bearish, suggesting short - selling when the price is high [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract referring to 78000 - 79500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 20000 - 21000 [2]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Various strategies such as short - selling when high, low - long, or wait - and - see are recommended according to different metal conditions [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Bearish, suggesting a short - term bearish approach and expanding the spread between the 10 - 11/12 contracts when the price is low [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand and price trends, including short - selling, range trading, and constructing spread strategies [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Grains and Oilseeds**: Long - term bullish for meal, suggesting long - term multi - position layout; bearish for corn, suggesting short - selling when the price is high [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Bullish for the near - term of pigs, with enhanced support; bearish for eggs, suggesting holding short positions [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended according to the supply - demand situation, such as short - selling when the price rebounds for sugar and holding short positions for cotton [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Bearish for glass and soda ash, suggesting holding short positions; wait - and - see for rubber and industrial silicon [2]. - **New Energy**: Wait - and - see for polysilicon; cautious wait - and - see for lithium carbonate, with a suggestion of lightly testing long positions at low prices in the short - term [2]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their price trends, supply - demand changes, and market sentiment [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market - **Equity Index**: The TMT sector is booming, and the equity index has risen sharply with increased trading volume. However, the improvement of corporate profits needs to be verified by mid - year report data [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The real stabilization of the bond market requires signals from the central bank to protect liquidity and the peak - turning of the stock market, and the timing is uncertain [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Strategies such as constructing spread strategies and low - long are recommended [2]. Commodity Market - **Shipping Index**: The EC (Europe Line) index is in a weak oscillation, and short positions in the 10 - contract are recommended to be held [2]. - **Black Commodities**: Steel prices have fallen below support, and iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices are also under pressure. Short - selling strategies are recommended [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are in a narrow - range oscillation or under pressure, with different trading strategies recommended according to their specific situations [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by supply expectations, and chemical product prices are influenced by supply - demand and cost factors, with corresponding trading strategies provided [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different supply - demand situations, and trading strategies such as long - term multi - position layout, short - selling when the price is high, and holding short positions are recommended [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Glass and soda ash are in a weak market, while rubber and industrial silicon need further observation [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate markets are affected by various factors, and wait - and - see or cautious trading strategies are recommended [2].