1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue its slow - bull market. Factors such as policy support, stable market funds, and improving economic data create favorable conditions for the market. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [11][12]. - The sentiment in the bond market may turn cautious after the Spring Festival. Although the central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose, factors such as the approaching important meetings and the possible reversal of some investors' behaviors may lead to a more cautious attitude [14]. - In the agricultural and sideline products sector, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal is expected to gradually reduce inventory, while the price of live pigs is likely to remain low. Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the price of sugar is expected to be weak [18][22][25]. - In the ferrous metals sector, steel prices may face pressure after the Spring Festival. The supply - demand structure of steel is weakening, and factors such as iron - water production, inventory accumulation, and coal mine resumption need to be monitored. The coking coal and coke market is affected by factors such as coal mine shutdowns and international coal market changes, with prices showing wide - range fluctuations. Iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening fundamentals [42][44][47]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to maintain a cautious and optimistic trend. Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation in the short term but have a long - term upward trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise if the Mozal aluminum plant's production reduction plan is implemented [52][56][58]. - In the shipping innovation sector, the container shipping market has a weakening price increase expectation in March and will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity deployment, geopolitical situations, and the implementation of price increase announcements [83]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are mainly driven by geopolitical factors in the short term, with a wide - range fluctuation. LPG prices are supported by high international costs in the short term but are restricted by weak domestic supply and demand in the long term. Other chemical products such as asphalt, natural gas, and fuel oil also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [88][90][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Analysis**: Policy guidance consolidates the stable and positive trend. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the enthusiasm for A - share investment has cooled, laying the foundation for a slow - bull market. Economic data is improving, which is beneficial to the performance of listed companies. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices. The futures market has already reduced positions in advance, and if the market improves after the Spring Festival, the basis discount may further narrow [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider the spot - futures arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF; for options, use the bull spread strategy [13]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Analysis**: The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose. Although inflation indicators are recovering, the impact on the bond market is limited. The market risk appetite has stabilized, but the bond market sentiment is still affected by the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the probability of a policy interest rate cut is low, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious after the Spring Festival [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to try to short TS contracts on rallies; for arbitrage, pay attention to the phased long - T - contract inter - delivery spread trading [15]. 3.2 Agricultural and Sideline Products 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - **Analysis**: The international soybean market is strong, but the upside space is limited. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decrease [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [20]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of live pigs is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The futures price mainly follows the spot price, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [23]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Analysis**: The US corn production is stable, and the import profit is high. After the Spring Festival, the supply of corn in Northeast China will increase, and the price may decline slightly. The starch price is expected to be relatively strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents/bu and short 03 corn on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips; for options, use the bear put spread strategy for 03 corn [26]. 3.2.4 Peanuts - **Analysis**: The peanut price is stable before the Spring Festival, and the 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take a short - long position on dips for the 05 contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, try to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [28]. 3.2.5 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak, and the domestic sugar price is likely to follow the weak trend [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, use the high - short and low - cover strategy for the domestic Zhengzhou sugar 5 - month contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell call options [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton - **Analysis**: The cotton price is supported, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [32]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Analysis**: The egg demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract on rallies [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the 6 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Analysis**: The apple inventory is low, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high. The price of the 5 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and short the 10 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on the 5 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract; for options, wait and see [36]. 3.2.9 Oils and Fats - **Analysis**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is at a high level, but the total inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not loose. The US biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the supply is generally sufficient. The policy of Canadian rapeseed is uncertain, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slightly decreasing [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct P59 and Y59 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [38]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Analysis**: After the Spring Festival, steel mills may resume production, and the steel supply will increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply - demand structure is weakening, and the steel price may face pressure. However, the steel price valuation is low, and the decline is limited [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is expected to be weak and oscillating; for arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread and the rebar - coking coal ratio on rallies; for options, wait and see [43]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Analysis**: Coal mines are on holiday during the Spring Festival, and the supply is reduced. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the Mongolian coal port is limited. The domestic coal market is affected by international and domestic factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The coking coal valuation is not high, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct band trading; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Analysis**: The iron ore supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [48]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Analysis**: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are relatively stable, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday and go long on dips after the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [50]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Analysis**: The gold and silver market has stabilized and recovered after the adjustment. The trading mainline is expected to return to factors such as great - power games and the US interest - rate cycle. It is recommended to control risks during the holiday [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conservative investors can exit long positions on rallies, and aggressive investors can hold long positions based on the 20 - day moving average with a light position. It is recommended to hold an empty position for silver; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, switch futures long positions to buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and use the bull call spread strategy for silver [53]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Analysis**: The non - farm payroll data is contradictory, and the asset volatility is high. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium is in a supply - surplus pattern. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be cautiously bullish and buy on dips; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [55]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Analysis**: The copper price has fluctuated sharply recently. After the adjustment, the fundamentals are healthier, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to control positions during the Spring Festival [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to control positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [57]. 3.4.4 Aluminum - **Analysis**: The macro - economic expectations are volatile. If the Mozal aluminum plant reduces production as planned, the aluminum price will be strong; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weakened. The domestic inventory is accumulating, which suppresses the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 24,200 yuan. In the long term, if the production - reduction plan is implemented, be bullish on dips; pay attention to the implementation of the production - reduction plan [59]. 3.4.5 Alumina - **Analysis**: The alumina supply is uncertain during the holiday. If the production reduction continues, the futures price may fluctuate; otherwise, it will be under pressure [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2,780 - 2,880 yuan. It is recommended to be cautious. If there are expectations for policies, buy a small number of call options. In the long term, be bearish on rallies in the surplus pattern; if the supply - demand situation improves, the price may rebound [61]. 3.4.6 Zinc - **Analysis**: The zinc concentrate supply shortage is expected to ease. The refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control positions and hedge inventory [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions and hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, buy LME and sell SHFE; for options, buy one - times out - of - the - money put options and two - times out - of - the - money call options [63]. 3.4.7 Lead - **Analysis**: The lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and the production of primary lead is profitable, but the production increase is limited. The production of recycled lead is affected by losses and holidays. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and control positions [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4.8 Nickel - **Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations drive the inflow of funds into the non - ferrous metal sector. The nickel supply is expected to be in surplus without quota restrictions, but there may be a shortage if the quota is limited. The nickel price is supported by cost and strategic demand. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the NI2604 contract with an exercise price of 134,000 [68]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel cost is rising, and the inventory is increasing. The price is affected by nickel and the macro - economic environment. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see [70]. 3.4.10 Polysilicon - **Analysis**: The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a state of disorderly fluctuation before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, if the price drops to the previous low, it can be considered to go long or buy call options [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see and look for a good safety margin; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, buy call options when appropriate [72]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Analysis**: The industrial - silicon production is reducing, and the basis is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,100 yuan. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the price to stabilize; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, there is no opportunity [73]. 3.4.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Analysis**: The lithium - carbonate demand is improving, and the supply will increase in March, resulting in inventory accumulation. However, the market tolerance for inventory is high, and the industry trend is positive. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the lc2605 contract with an exercise price of 140,000 [75]. 3.4.13 Tin - **Analysis**: The tin price is relatively resilient. The tin - ore import is stable, and the production is expected to change slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is recovering marginally. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions before the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [79]. 3.5 Shipping Innovation 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Analysis**: The price increase expectation in March is weakening, and the market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. The freight rate is under pressure, and the supply and demand are affected by factors such as shipping capacity deployment and geopolitical situations [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see before the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage rolling operations [84].

Report Overview - Report Title: Macro and Commodity Weekly Report - Analyst: Wang Jing - Release Date: January 12, 2026 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the first week of 2026, the global capital market showed a positive trend. A-shares in China had a strong start, while overseas, geopolitical tensions increased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut decreased. The US dollar first rose and then fell, and the RMB remained stable and strong. Commodities performed well, with precious metals leading the way, followed by non-ferrous and black metals, energy, and agricultural products [5][10]. - The domestic bond market declined, with short-term bonds performing better than long-term bonds. The stock market had a broad-based rally, with the growth style outperforming the value style, and the CSI 500 leading the gains. All domestic commodity sectors closed higher, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 4.01% week-on-week [5]. - In the futures market, funds flowed into the commodity market, especially into non-ferrous metals, non-metallic building materials, coal, coking, and steel, oilseeds, and energy sectors. The soft commodity sector saw a significant outflow of funds. The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index continued to decline, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua Commodity Indexes increased [6]. 3) Section Summaries Market Overview - Global capital markets were positive in the first week of 2026. A-shares in China had a strong start, while overseas, geopolitical tensions increased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut decreased. The US dollar first rose and then fell, and the RMB remained stable and strong. Commodities performed well, with precious metals leading the way, followed by non-ferrous and black metals, energy, and agricultural products [5][10]. - The domestic bond market declined, with short-term bonds performing better than long-term bonds. The stock market had a broad-based rally, with the growth style outperforming the value style, and the CSI 500 leading the gains. All domestic commodity sectors closed higher, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 4.01% week-on-week [5]. Futures Market Capital Flow - The commodity futures market saw a significant inflow of funds. The non-ferrous metals, non-metallic building materials, coal, coking, and steel, oilseeds, and energy sectors had obvious inflows, while the soft commodity sector had a significant outflow [6][19]. Futures Market Volatility - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index continued to decline, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua Commodity Indexes increased. Most commodity futures sectors saw an increase in volatility, with the oilseeds and grain sectors seeing a significant decline, and the non-ferrous and soft commodity sectors seeing a notable increase [6][28]. Fed Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January decreased. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% was 95.4%, significantly higher than last week's 81.4%. The probability of a 25bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% dropped to 4.6%. The market still expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [6]. US Stock Market - The US stock market started strongly in 2026 but will face challenges in the coming week, including the start of the Q4 earnings season, the release of December inflation data, and increasing geopolitical uncertainties. The VIX index remained close to its 2025 low [7]. Sector Performance - In the futures market, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. The top gainers were lithium carbonate, platinum, and silver futures, while the top losers were polysilicon, container shipping index, and industrial silicon futures [24]. - In terms of market sentiment, there were few commodity futures with significant increases in both price and open interest, such as apples, aluminum, and coking coal. There were many commodity futures with significant decreases in both price and open interest, such as polysilicon, container shipping index, and peanuts [26]. Macro Logic - The domestic stock market rose across the board, with the growth style outperforming the value style. The valuation of the stock market increased, and the equity risk premium (ERP) decreased [34][35]. - The commodity price index fluctuated strongly, and the inflation expectation continued to rebound [38]. - The "fund seesaw" effect between the stock market and commodities was not significant, and the spread between domestic and international commodity futures widened [41][44]. - The US bond yield showed a differentiated trend, with the term spread slightly decreasing. The real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price reached a new high [53]. - The US high-frequency "recession indicator" declined, the Citi Economic Surprise Index turned down, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread widened significantly and then fluctuated within a narrow range [62]. Data Tracking - International commodities mostly rose, with the BDI index falling sharply, the CRB index remaining flat, soybeans and corn rising slightly, copper and oil prices increasing, and precious metals regaining their upward momentum [30]. - The asphalt开工率 decreased seasonally, real estate sales remained weak, freight rates rebounded and diverged, and short-term capital interest rates fluctuated upward [45]. - US bond yields fluctuated, the Sino-US interest rate spread remained stable, inflation expectations increased, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB remained stable and strong [60]. Economic Data - The US December non-farm payroll data was mixed. The number of non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% [72]. - China's December inflation data showed that both CPI and PPI continued to rebound. The CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing [77][78]. This Week's Focus - Monday (January 12): Swiss December consumer confidence index, Eurozone January Sentix investor confidence index, Japanese stock market closed for one day. - Tuesday (January 13): US 10-year Treasury auction, Japan's November trade balance, US December NFIB small business confidence index, US December unadjusted CPI annual rate, US December seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, US December seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, US October new home sales annualized, speeches by New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem. - Wednesday (January 14): US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9, US November retail sales monthly rate, US November PPI annual rate, US Q3 current account, US December existing home sales annualized, US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9, China's December trade balance, speech by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker on the economic outlook, speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman in Athens, OPEC monthly oil market report. - Thursday (January 15): UK November three-month GDP monthly rate, UK November seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, Germany's 2025 full-year GDP growth rate, Eurozone November seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, US EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending January 9, South Korea's central bank interest rate decision, Fed Beige Book, speech by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, opening speech by New York Fed President Williams at an event. - Friday (January 16): Germany's December CPI monthly rate final value, US December industrial production monthly rate, US January NAHB housing market index.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals futures and spot prices, and container shipping industry indices. These data provide insights into market trends and price movements of different financial instruments. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price Differences**: On December 1, 2025, the IF spot - futures spread was -20.86, the IC spot - futures spread was -57.35, and the IM spot - futures spread was 73.41. There were also various inter - period spreads and cross - product ratios presented, such as the IC/IF ratio at 1.5478 [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the IRR of some bonds had certain changes. For example, the TF basis was 1.5719, the T basis was 1.4880, and the TL basis was 1.8420. There were also inter - period spreads and cross - product spreads among different bond futures contracts [2]. Precious Metals Futures and Spot - **Price Changes**: On November 28, 2025, domestic futures prices of precious metals like AU2602 increased by 0.71% to 953.92 yuan/gram, AG2602 rose by 1.61% to 12727 yuan/kilogram. In the foreign market, COMEX gold increased by 1.44% to 4256.40 dollars/ounce. There were also data on spot prices, basis, and price ratios [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Index Movements**: As of November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (European route) increased by 20.75% to 1639.37 points, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 10.54% to 1107.85 points. There were also data on shipping rates, futures prices, and fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply and port - related indicators [5].

Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Core Data Summary - **Futures-Spot Price Spread**: F futures-spot price spread is -22.80, with a 1.82 change from the previous day, and historical 1-year and all-time percentiles of 40.50% and 20.30% respectively. Other contracts like H, IC, and IM also have corresponding futures-spot price spreads and percentile data [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: Different contracts such as F, H, and K have various inter - delivery spreads between different months (e.g., next month - current month, far month - current month), along with their changes from the previous day and percentile data [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/F, etc., are presented, including their latest values, changes from the previous day, and percentile data [1]. Report on Bond Futures Basis and Spread Daily Core Data Summary - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.6325, with a -0.0595 change from the previous day and a 28.60% percentile since listing. Similar data is provided for TF, T, and TL bases [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For different contracts (TS, TF, T, TL), inter - delivery spreads between different quarters (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) are given, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different bond futures contracts (e.g., TS - TF, TS - T) are presented, including their values, changes, and percentiles [2]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Futures and Spot Daily Core Data Summary - **Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) increased by 20.75% from 1357.67 on November 17th to 1639.37 on November 24th, while SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 10.54%. The SCFI composite index decreased by 2.92% [3]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The price of the EC2602 (main contract) increased by 0.02%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 29.73% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply increased by 0.01%. Shanghai port on - time rate increased by 14.75%, and the monthly export amount decreased by 7.03% [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].

Report Summary of Futures Market Data 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core View The reports present a comprehensive set of data on various futures markets including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures. These data cover price differences, ratios, yields, exchange rates, inventories, and other relevant indicators, providing investors with a basis for analyzing market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The reports detail the price differences between futures and spot prices, as well as across different contract months for IF, IH, IC, and IM stock index futures. For example, the IF period - spot price difference is -9.27, and the H period - spot price difference is 3.65 [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: Each price difference is accompanied by its historical percentile over the past year and the entire futures - listing period, helping investors understand the relative position of the current price difference [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 300, IC/IF, and others are provided, with their changes and historical percentiles [1]. Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: Information on the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis for different bond futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) is given, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) are presented, including their values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Price and Spread**: The reports include domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of gold and silver. For instance, the AU2512 contract closed at 921.92 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4077.20 dollars [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate, and inventories of precious metals in different exchanges are provided [3]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies (MAERSK, CMA, MSC, etc.) are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes such as SCFIS (European and US West routes) and Shanghai export container freight indexes (SCFI) are given, showing their growth rates [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2512, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are reported, along with their changes [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Information on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (quasi - punctuality rate, berthing situation), monthly export balance, and overseas economic indicators (eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, etc.) is provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports 2. Core Views - The reports provide daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, covering price differences, spreads, spot prices, and related economic indicators [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: IF, IH, IC, and IM期现价差, with values such as IF期现价差 at 11.70% and changes like -31.62 compared to the previous day [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Various inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM, e.g., IF跨期价差次月 - 当月 at - 16.60 with a change of - 3.00 [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like 中证500/沪深300 at 1.5648 with a change of 0.0074 [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: IRR values and basis for TS, TF, T, and TL, e.g., TS基差 at 0.2010 on 2025 - 10 - 27 with a change of - 0.0023 [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads for different periods of TS, TF, T, and TL, such as TS跨期价差当季 - 下季 at 0.0900 with a change of 0.0120 [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different Treasury bond futures, e.g., TS - TF at - 3.3570 on 2025 - 10 - 27 with a change of - 0.0740 [2] Precious Metal Futures - **Domestic Futures**: AU2512合约 closed at 934.14 yuan/gram on October 27, down 0.42% from October 24; AG2512合约 closed at 11394 yuan/kilogram, up 0.55% [3] - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX黄金主力合约 closed at 3997.00, down 3.15%; COMEX白银主力合约 closed at 46.83 dollars/ounce, down 3.26% [3] - **Spot Prices**: London gold at 4111.56, down 0.36%; London silver at 48.62 dollars/ounce, down 0.47% [3] - **Basis**: Gold TD - 沪金主力 at - 3.85 with a change of - 1.08 and a 1 - year historical percentile of 21.60% [3] Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route, e.g., MAERSK马士基 at 2358 dollars/FEU on October 28, down 0.25% from October 27 [4] - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) at 1312.71 on October 27, up 15.11% from October 20; SCFIS (US West route) at 1107.32, up 28.24% [4] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 at 1571.6, down 1.84%; the basis of the main contract (EC2512) at - 167.6, with a change of 28.7 and a percentage change of - 14.62% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container运力供给 at 3328.67 FTEU on October 28, with a negligible change; Shanghai port准班率 at 42.77 in September, up 133.59% from August [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings by Industry - **Macro Finance**: - Stock Index: Bullish in the short term, with potential risks from tariff policy fluctuations [1] - Treasury Bonds: Neutral, with asset shortage and weak economy favorable but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks [1] - Precious Metals: Cautiously bullish on short - term rebound, but high - level volatility risks exist [1] - Copper: Bullish, supported by supply disruptions and improved macro - liquidity [1] - Other Metals: Varying degrees of bullish, bearish, or neutral depending on specific market conditions [1] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - Most metals are rated as "Oscillating", with specific market factors influencing short - term trends [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, driven by seasonal demand and supply - demand imbalance [1] - **Black Metals**: - Most products are rated as "Oscillating" or "Weak", with unclear industrial drivers and high inventory in some cases [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm Oil: Mixed signals, with a wait - and - see approach for now [1] - Other products: Varying ratings based on supply - demand, policy, and international trade factors [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Most products are rated as "Oscillating", "Weak", or "Bearish", affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, geopolitical situation, and production status [1] - **Other**: - Shipping: Potential for a rebound at low levels, with expectations of stabilizing [1] 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market is generally affected by factors such as Sino - US trade friction, central bank policies, and supply - demand dynamics across different industries. Uncertainty persists, leading to a mix of bullish, bearish, and oscillating trends in various sectors [1] - **Specific Industry Drivers**: - In the non - ferrous metals industry, supply disruptions and policy changes are key factors [1] - In the black metals industry, unclear industrial drivers and high inventory are major concerns [1] - In the agricultural products industry, international trade policies, supply - demand balance, and seasonal factors play important roles [1] - In the energy and chemicals industry, geopolitical situation, production capacity, and demand seasonality are significant drivers [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term bullish, but beware of tariff policy fluctuations and pay attention to the potential Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks may limit upward movement [1] - **Precious Metals**: Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks boost the rebound, but high - level volatility risks remain [1] - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and improved macro - liquidity support the upward trend [1] - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own unique supply - demand and market factors influencing its short - term trend [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Most Metals**: Oscillating, affected by factors such as Sino - US trade friction, supply disruptions, and inventory levels [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bullish, driven by the approaching peak season for new energy vehicles, strong energy storage demand, and overall supply - demand imbalance [1] Black Metals - **Most Products**: Oscillating or weak, with unclear industrial drivers, high inventory, and supply - demand imbalances [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Similar logic, with short - term price exploration not over, but chasing short positions is not advisable [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Mixed signals, with news of Indonesian export regulations favoring far - month contracts, while near - month contracts lack new drivers [1] - **Other Products**: Varying trends based on international trade policies, supply - demand balance, and seasonal factors [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Most Products**: Oscillating, weak, or bearish, affected by factors such as OPEC production policies, geopolitical situation, and demand seasonality [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, etc.**: Each product has its own specific supply - demand and production - related factors influencing its price [1] Other - **Shipping**: Potential for a rebound at low levels, with expectations of stabilizing as it enters the换月节奏 and approaches the full - cost line [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the volatility risks associated with commodity markets during long holidays, highlighting the need for investors to adopt a systematic risk management framework based on historical data and current volatility trends [1][7]. Historical Review of Holiday Volatility - External market fluctuations during long holidays are driven by three main factors: changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations affecting interest and exchange rates, geopolitical conflicts and supply-demand shocks, and domestic policy expectations coupled with liquidity issues in the spot market [1][2]. - Historical data indicates that approximately 70% of agricultural and black series commodities experience volatility exceeding twice the normal levels in the first week after holidays, particularly in oilseeds, energy, and non-ferrous metals [1]. Specific Commodity Performance Patterns - **Oilseeds Reversal Effect**: Data from 2010-2019 shows that soybean oil and palm oil have a 60% probability of declining in the five days before holidays, but an 80% probability of rising in the five days after, with average returns shifting from -1.5% to +2.3% [2]. - **Black Series Policy Game Characteristics**: Iron ore and rebar often face pressure before holidays due to weakened terminal demand, but can rebound quickly post-holiday if stimulated by growth policies [2]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals External Drive**: Copper and aluminum are closely linked to the London Metal Exchange, with significant price movements observed during holidays due to overseas inventory changes and dollar index fluctuations [2]. Current Volatility Classification and Risk Management Tools - Commodities are categorized into three volatility levels based on 2024-2025 predictions and historical backtesting: - **High Volatility**: Includes lithium carbonate, shipping, palm oil, and copper, with annualized volatility between 30%-60%+ and expected post-holiday gains over 8% [3][4]. - **Medium Volatility**: Comprises PTA, rebar, coal, and sugar, with annualized volatility of 15%-30%+ and potential fluctuations around ±5% [4]. - **Low Volatility**: Encompasses corn, government bonds, and live pigs, with annualized volatility below 15% and expected changes around ±3% [4]. Recommendations for Different Volatility Categories - For high volatility commodities, strategies include reducing positions and hedging with options. For example, a strategy involving "short futures + long spot" can be employed for lithium carbonate [5]. - For medium volatility commodities, buying out-of-the-money put options can be a cost-effective strategy to mitigate risks. For instance, purchasing a put option for copper can cover potential losses if prices drop significantly [5]. - For low volatility commodities, adjusting positions rather than speculating on direction is advisable, such as reducing corn holdings to maintain a base position [5]. Margin Requirements and Leverage Impact - Increased margin requirements for certain commodities, such as coking coal and lithium carbonate, necessitate additional capital to maintain positions, highlighting the importance of managing leverage to avoid forced liquidations post-holiday [6]. Conclusion - Historical data suggests that a significant portion of commodities that experience the highest gains post-holiday are often those that were undervalued before the holiday. The key risk lies in inadequate position management rather than volatility itself. Investors are advised to adjust their holdings towards a mix of low-volatility base positions and options for protection, while maintaining liquidity for potential market opportunities [7].