尽管终端需求不畅引发价格持续下挫，但鉴于加工费已处于极低水平，且供需基本面未显著恶化，PTA 价格并不具备大幅下跌基础。 加工费处于历史低位 受终端需求疲软及上游PX价格相对坚挺影响，PTA现货价格已处于历史同期低位，加工费亦被压缩至 130元／吨的极低水平。然而，生产过程中的综合成本已达4500元／吨，导致生产端每吨仍亏损约330 元。 聚酯行业自身经营状况尚可。涤纶长丝产品仍有小幅利润，聚酯切片产品亏损不大，整体经营情况较前 期略有改善。目前聚酯企业暂无明确检修计划，开工负荷仍维持较高水平。截至9月22日，国内聚酯开 工负荷为87.43%，同比上升1.95个百分点。 然而，受终端拿货意愿低迷影响，聚酯产品库存持续累积。截至9月18日，涤纶长丝POY、DTY、FDY 的库存可用天数分别为20.6天、31.5天和28.8天，同比分别上升11.35%、18.87%和33.95%。 综上所述，近期PTA价格大幅下挫，主要是受终端需求不畅及市场悲观情绪驱动。但从供需基本面看， PTA供应稳定，库存压力有限，基本面矛盾并不突出。加之其加工费已处于历史低位，预计当前PTA价 格跌势更多由情绪面主导，后市不具备持续深跌基 ...

Group 1 - The domestic cotton spinning market is showing a significant weakening trend, with the Zheng cotton main contract experiencing a decline after four months of rebound, reaching a low of 13,510 yuan/ton [1] - As of September 19, the total commercial cotton inventory in China was 1.1426 million tons, a decrease of 129,200 tons week-on-week, reflecting a 10.16% drop [2] - The forecast for cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 6.36 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons compared to the previous year, which may exert downward pressure on cotton prices [2] Group 2 - The textile industry's cotton industrial inventory is continuously decreasing due to insufficient orders and a lack of raw material procurement motivation [3] - The operating rate of textile enterprises was reported at 66.6%, the lowest level in nearly five years, indicating weak demand in the market [2] - Global cotton markets are facing pressure from the new cotton harvest in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly from the U.S., where the cotton harvest rate reached 12% as of September 21, in line with the five-year average [4] Group 3 - Concerns about global demand remain, with the U.S. cotton market experiencing downward pressure despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have not significantly improved the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [4] - The combination of new cotton entering the market and increased production expectations is expected to alleviate the tight inventory situation of old cotton, while the domestic cotton market is likely to enter a seasonal accumulation phase [4] - The overall outlook suggests that both domestic and international cotton prices may continue to decline in the short to medium term, influenced by multiple factors including the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [4]

数据显示，前8个月，我国电信业务收入保持正增长，累计完成11821亿元，同比增长0.8%。5G用户规 模持续扩大，移动物联网终端用户增长较快。截至8月末，三家基础电信企业及中国广电的移动电话用 户总数达18.19亿户，其中，5G移动电话用户达11.54亿户，比上年末净增1.4亿户；三家基础电信企业发 展移动物联网终端用户28.72亿户，比上年末净增2.16亿户。 据新华社电 记者23日从工业和信息化部获悉，今年前8个月，我国通信业呈现平稳运行态势。其中移动 互联网流量延续较快增势，截至8月末，移动互联网用户数16.01亿户，比上年末净增3132万户。 ...

本报讯（记者 张梦）为了进一步打造"期货期权、场内场外"联动贯通的市场格局，近日，郑商所携手 中国期货市场监控中心（下称监控中心）在湖北武汉成功举办玻璃和纯碱产业企业"期权+"专题培训活 动。据期货日报记者了解，本次培训选址玻璃、纯碱主产区，面向产业企业、期现贸易商及期货公司的 风险管理公司，旨在提升企业综合运用期货、期权工具及期现业务的能力与水平，满足企业在风险管理 和贸易模式转型升级中的多样化需求。 "期货市场在发挥功能的同时，因高杠杆、跨市场等特性也具有高风险特征，强化风险防控始终是期货 市场发展的重要任务。"上述监控中心相关负责人称，在现代市场经济条件下，金融市场的复杂性、技 术性特征日益突出，大家要充分了解和全面认识期货市场的总体特征和功能。本次培训正是基于此初衷 给玻璃和纯碱产业企业提供学习、交流和共享的平台，帮助大家充分了解期货市场的运作原理和运行机 制，掌握交易策略的基本规则和风险管理技能。 据记者了解，本次培训从当前宏观经济与大宗商品风险管理实际出发，涵盖玻璃、纯碱期货和期权基础 知识，以及基差贸易、期权体系、含权贸易、交割等内容，系统讲解了期货工具在企业采购、销售和库 存管理中的实际应用， ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in the steel industry's added value, with a focus on optimizing structure and enhancing green, low-carbon, and digital development levels [1][2]. Group 1: Goals and Objectives - The plan sets a target for the steel industry to achieve an average annual growth of approximately 4% in added value from 2025 to 2026 [1]. - It emphasizes the need for economic benefits to stabilize and recover, with a more balanced market supply and demand [1]. - The plan aims to enhance effective supply capacity and significantly improve green, low-carbon, and digital development levels [1]. Group 2: Key Measures - Five key measures are outlined in the plan: 1. Strengthening industry management through capacity reduction and classification management to optimize supply and demand [2]. 2. Enhancing technological innovation in the industry to improve high-end product supply capabilities and stabilize raw material supply [2]. 3. Expanding effective investment by accelerating equipment upgrades and promoting digital and green transformations [2]. 4. Expanding market demand by increasing the application of steel structures in various sectors [2]. 5. Deepening open cooperation to stabilize foreign trade markets and enhance international development levels [2]. Group 3: Implementation and Support - The plan calls for strengthened organizational support, policy backing, and monitoring to ensure high-quality implementation [1]. - It highlights the importance of guiding financial institutions to provide quality financial services tailored to the steel industry's characteristics [1]. - There is a focus on talent development to meet the needs of new materials, processes, and digital transformation [1].

本计价周期内，国际原油基本面受多空因素交织影响，前期受俄乌和中东局势升级影响，市场担忧石油 整体供应，且在宏观宽松的背景下，原油价格偏强运行为主，后期随着地缘扰动对市场的影响减弱，而 市场对石油累库的预期不变，在供应增加和需求弱化的背景下，原油价格连续多日延续偏弱行情。受此 影响，本周期的原油变化率由负转正后处于正值低位水平，据卓创资讯（301299）监测模型显示，9月 22日收盘，国内第10个工作日参考原油变化率0.39%，预计汽柴油上调15元/吨，调价窗口9月23日24 时。根据当前预测幅度来看，未达到国家零售限价调整红线，预计本轮成品油零售限价调整或搁浅，成 品油零售限价将遇两连搁。 卓创资讯预计，关注石油库存等基本面数据，累库周期将给予油价下行压力，但是美联储降息和欧洲局 势扰动，都给予油价部分支撑，短期看，油价维持偏弱运行行情。按当前原油价格测算，新周期的原油 变化率负值开局，预计首日对应的成品油零售限价下调幅度在80元/吨，调价窗口在10月13日24时，因 下轮调价周期横跨国庆、中秋"双节"，调价周期较长，最终结果尚存较大不确定性。 本轮成品油零售调价周期内(9月9日24时—9月23日24时)国际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Haizheng Futures and Shanghai Securities aims to leverage their resources for community development and social responsibility, particularly in rural revitalization and urban governance [1][2] Group 1: Collaboration Details - The meeting focused on three main cooperation directions: providing industrial financial support for Yunnan's counterpart assistance counties, enhancing community financial services, and exploring public welfare collaboration [2] - Both parties emphasized the importance of establishing a long-term cooperative relationship centered around party building, aiming to modernize urban governance and improve the business environment [2] Group 2: Social Responsibility Initiatives - Shanghai Securities highlighted its social responsibility achievements, particularly its targeted assistance in six counties in Yunnan, focusing on finance, education, and livelihood [1] - Haizheng Futures shared its unique support model, "Insurance + Futures," which has been successfully implemented in the natural rubber sector in Yunnan, with plans to expand to other agricultural products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is facing significant supply pressure due to continuous capacity expansion, while demand recovery is weaker than expected, leading to a bearish outlook for PTA prices [2][4][7] Supply Pressure - The PTA industry has seen a capacity expansion of 34.8 million tons from 2022 to 2024, with an annual growth rate of 9.15% [2] - By mid-2025, the total PTA capacity is expected to exceed 91 million tons, further increasing supply pressure [2] - Despite temporary maintenance of some PTA facilities, the overall supply remains ample due to high capacity levels, with weekly production reaching 1.4308 million tons as of September 18, showing a 3.09% week-on-week increase and a 4.1% year-on-year increase [2] Demand Recovery - The polyester market has not experienced the anticipated demand recovery during the traditional peak season, with the domestic polyester operating rate at 87.9%, reflecting limited recovery momentum [4] - Year-to-date, PTA has added 5.7 million tons of capacity, while the polyester sector has only added 2.6 million tons, indicating a mismatch in supply and demand dynamics [4] Cost Support - PTA prices are closely linked to crude oil prices, which have been declining since September 17, leading to a drop in PTA prices over three consecutive trading days [5] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to weakened demand expectations and increased production plans from OPEC+, suggesting limited support for PTA prices from the cost side [5] PX Market Dynamics - The PX market has seen a slight increase in operating rates due to the restart of several facilities, contributing to a relaxed supply situation [6] - The low processing fees in the PTA sector are prompting some factories to plan maintenance, which could further reduce PTA operating rates and subsequently lower PX procurement demand [6] Overall Market Outlook - The continuous introduction of new PTA capacity raises concerns about oversupply, while weakening costs from crude oil and PX prices contribute to downward pressure on PTA prices [7] - The expectation is for PTA prices to remain weak in the short term, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a short-selling strategy [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year, with a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle [2] - The median of the latest dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points of potential cuts by 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in the labor market and a rise in inflation, with Chairman Powell adopting a somewhat hawkish tone, indicating that the next steps in monetary policy remain unclear [2] Group 2: Economic and Market Implications - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, and the expectation of further rate cuts is putting pressure on the dollar [3] - The total U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with public holdings at $28.95 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. government debt [3] - Despite a resilient consumer sector, the labor market is showing signs of cooling, prompting the Fed to adopt a "risk management" approach to rate cuts [2] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching 1249 tons, with a significant 45% rise in value to $132 billion [4] - Central banks remain a crucial pillar of gold demand, with official reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2, reflecting a long-term strategic approach to optimize foreign exchange reserves [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of continued Fed rate cuts are driving strong investment demand for gold, despite high prices suppressing jewelry consumption [4]

三季度以来，生猪现货价格高开低走。6月底至7月初，养殖端出栏积极性下降，整体出栏量大幅缩减， 导致屠企采购难度增加，被迫提价收购，猪价于7月3日冲高至15.3元／千克。随后，伴随着猪价快速拉 涨，屠企亏损扩大，减量意愿明显，同时终端消费表现低迷，且二次育肥增量支撑有限，在供强需弱格 局下，猪价再次走低。截至9月22日，全国外三元生猪价格为12.67元／千克。其中，全国最高价为13.65 元／千克（福建），全国最低价为11.87元／千克（广西），基准地河南均价为12.89元／千克。 期货方面，生猪期货价格在7月震荡走高，8月以来逐步走低。9月19日盘中，生猪期货主力2511合约一 度跌至12770元／吨。受供应压力大、需求走弱预期影响，期货价格在多数时间贴水现货价格。 能繁母猪暂无明显去化 根据农业农村部数据，截至2025年7月末，全国能繁母猪存栏量为4042万头，较6月减少1万头，环比减 少0.02%，同比持平。根据涌益咨询统计的样本数据，截至2025年8月末，能繁母猪存栏量环比增加 0.07%，同比增加6.23%。根据钢联统计的样本数据，截至2025年8月末，能繁母猪存栏量为523.04万 头，环比减少0. ...