Core Viewpoint - China's urea export volume decreased to 601,800 tons in November 2025, but the cumulative export from January to November reached 4,616,300 tons, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2023 [1] Group 1: Urea Production and Prices - Urea production in China for January to December 2025 was 71,130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with December production slightly rising to 6,040,000 tons [1] - As of January 3, 2026, urea prices in Henan ranged from 1,640 to 1,660 CNY per ton, while in Shandong, prices ranged from 1,660 to 1,690 CNY per ton; CFR China small granular urea was quoted at 400 USD per ton, up by 10 USD from the previous week [1] - Domestic coal-based urea operating rate was 89.5%, up by 2.5% month-on-month but down by 1.3% year-on-year; natural gas-based urea operating rate was 48.4%, down by 1.9 percentage points month-on-month but up by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: New Capacity and Inventory - In December 2025, new urea production capacities included stable operations at Gansu Jinchang Energy (300,000 tons/year) and Gansu Liu Chemical (350,000 tons/year), while the 520,000 tons/year facility by Zhengyuan Hydrogen Energy is delayed until 2026 [2] - Urea production companies' inventory decreased for eight consecutive weeks, reaching 1,019,200 tons by December 31, a reduction of 49,700 tons month-on-month and 531,600 tons year-on-year [2] - Domestic urea port inventory stood at 172,000 tons, showing little change from early December 2025, with most ports maintaining low levels [2] Group 3: International Market Trends - International urea prices have stabilized and increased, with FOB urea prices in China at 400 USD per ton, a week-on-week increase of 10 USD and a year-on-year increase of 150 USD [3] - Despite being in the traditional off-season for agricultural demand, some industrial demand has recovered due to environmental regulations, supporting market sentiment and leading to increased stocking by traders [3] Group 4: Other Demand Factors - The operating rate of domestic compound fertilizers showed insufficient rebound, recorded at 37.75% as of December 25, 2025, down by 1.5 percentage points month-on-month and 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Urea exports to South America from January to November 2025 totaled 686,000 tons, accounting for 14.9% of total exports, primarily to Brazil and Chile [4] - The ongoing geopolitical situation in Venezuela is expected to drive up international fertilizer prices, potentially increasing China's export prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refining market is gradually emerging from an adjustment period, supported by favorable policies and declining international crude oil prices, leading to improved market concentration and prosperity [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The profitability of major private refining companies, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, has been steadily recovering since Q3 2025 [1]. - The integrated refining model and industrial chain advantages are key factors for these leading companies to withstand market fluctuations, improving their gross margins and overall industry prosperity [1][2]. - The refining capacity in China has reached 923 million tons as of 2024, nearing the 1 billion ton limit set by regulatory authorities, indicating the end of the expansion cycle [2]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average price of Brent crude oil was $68.17 per barrel in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%, while WTI crude oil averaged $64.97 per barrel, down 13.6% year-on-year [3]. - The decline in oil prices has reduced raw material procurement costs for refining companies and improved the price differentials of chemical products [3]. - The global refining capacity is experiencing a clear East-West differentiation, with older refineries in Europe and the U.S. being phased out, while Asian facilities continue to come online [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue its moderate recovery, although demand-side pressures remain a concern [5]. - The core variable affecting corporate profitability in 2026 will still be crude oil prices, with expectations of prices dropping to the marginal cost of shale oil [6]. - The refining market is anticipated to see a divergence in profits between chemical and refining sectors, with large refining companies benefiting from a higher proportion of chemical products [7].

下一步，王昌林表示，将深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，编制好实施好长江经济带发展"十五 五"实施方案，一体推进长江大保护三年行动计划落实，咬定青山不放松，推动长江经济带发展不断迈 上新台阶。 期货日报网讯(记者肖佳煊)1月5日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍长江经济带发展十年工作 进展和成效。国家发展改革委副主任王昌林在会上表示，经过不懈努力，长江经济带走出了一条生态优 先、绿色发展的新路子，长江母亲河重新焕发出了生机活力。 谈及长江大保护三年行动计划进展的成效，王昌林用"四个一批"来概括。一是新建改造一批污水管网项 目，积极发挥"两重"建设对长江大保护战略实施的支撑作用，统筹"硬投资"和"软建设"，2025年安排超 长期特别国债资金244亿元，支持长江干流和主要支流沿线城市约1.2万公里污水管网建设项目。二是出 台实施一批重点政策举措，统筹安排超长期特别国债、中央预算内投资等资金超1000亿元，支持重点河 湖水生态修复、城市黑臭水体治理、重点行业和重点领域节能降碳等长江大保护项目建设。三是组织开 展一批专项治理行动。四是推进建设一批重大工程项目。 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, China's futures market made significant strides towards high-quality development, characterized by an optimized market structure, improved regulatory framework, and innovative business models and technological capabilities [1] Group 1: Market Scale, Structure, and Concentration - In 2025, the futures market experienced profound changes in scale, participant structure, and industry concentration, with record-breaking trading volume and financial metrics [2] - The cumulative trading volume reached 8.117 billion contracts, and the cumulative trading value was 67.545 trillion yuan, surpassing the total for 2024 [2] - The total funds in the futures market and client equity of futures companies exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with client equity growing over 30% compared to the end of 2024 [2] - The market structure evolved towards specialization and institutionalization, with significant growth in client equity from insurance institutions, which doubled compared to the end of 2024 [2][3] Group 2: Regulatory Framework and Industry Norms - 2025 was marked as a "regulatory year" for the futures industry, with new policies enhancing the regulatory framework across various aspects, including internet marketing and risk management [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission introduced regulations to ensure compliance and protect client rights, emphasizing a balance between regulation and development [5] - New regulations aim to guide futures companies towards compliance and stable growth while preventing systemic risks [5][6] Group 3: Technological Empowerment and Industry Transformation - Since 2025, futures companies have been evolving their business models towards comprehensive and international services, driven by digital capabilities [7] - Technology is expected to reshape the industry's core competitiveness, facilitating scale expansion and efficiency improvements [7] - The integration of technology into trading, risk control, and management processes is anticipated to create a new paradigm of "smart futures," enhancing support for the real economy [7]

2025年，铸造铝合金期货及期权、纯苯期货及期权、丙烯期货及期权、胶版印刷纸期货及期权，燃料 油、石油沥青、纸浆期权，线型低密度聚乙烯、聚氯乙烯、聚丙烯月均价期货，铂期货及期权、钯期货 及期权等18个新品种先后挂牌交易。至此，我国已上市期货和期权品种数量达到164个。期货市场品种 门类持续增多、体系愈发完善，将更好服务实体经济高质量发展。 二、维护市场公平，期市程序化交易管理新规落地实施 一、新上市18个，我国期货和期权品种数量增至164个 2025年，各类资金积极布局、广泛参与期货市场。继市场资金总量10月9日突破2万亿元后，12月8日， 期货公司客户权益突破2万亿元，较2024年底增长超30%。其中，特殊法人客户权益稳步增长。在各类 特殊法人客户中，保险机构权益增幅最为显著，较2024年底增长约两倍。截至2025年9月末，全市场有 效客户数突破270万个，较上年同期增长14%。2025年前11个月，保险资金在期货市场新开账户数量同 比增长166%。 七、金属市场出现"史诗级行情"，交易所多措并举筑牢风险防线 2025年，在流动性宽松、去美元化加速、风险溢价抬升、新兴工业需求提振等因素的综合作用下，金属 市 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced volatility last week, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions but ultimately declining due to strong expectations of oversupply in the market [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical issues in regions such as Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela have caused fluctuations in oil prices, with positive signals from the Ukraine conflict contributing to a price rebound [1] - The recent decline in Iranian oil exports has drawn market attention, with daily exports expected to drop to 1.011 million barrels by December 2025, a decrease of 824,000 barrels (approximately 44.9%) from November 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Iranian Oil Exports - The decline in Iranian oil exports is largely attributed to a limited number of downstream buyers, as Russian oil is being purchased at significant discounts, leading to an increase in floating storage of nearly 50 million barrels [2] - The instability of Iran's domestic situation and external pressures pose challenges to the stability of its oil supply, with potential for further sanctions to exacerbate the decline in exports [2] Group 3: Venezuelan Oil Situation - Following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, there is a focus on the potential for U.S. oil companies to invest billions in repairing Venezuela's damaged oil infrastructure, although the oil embargo remains in effect [2][3] - The current paralysis of Venezuela's oil exports due to political turmoil is expected to lead to a temporary absence of heavy oil supply in the international market, prompting Asian refineries to seek alternatives from Russia and the Middle East [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall outlook for January indicates that oil prices may continue to decline due to significant oversupply pressures, although the potential for geopolitical factors to cause short-term price increases exists [3] - The interplay between geopolitical disturbances and supply surplus pressures will shape the oil market in January, with expectations that any price increases driven by geopolitical factors may lack sustainability [3]

Macroeconomic Overview - In 2025, global markets operated amidst geopolitical conflicts, tariff disruptions, and technological narratives, with both gold and equity assets rising simultaneously, while the US dollar and oil prices showed similar trends [1] - The market experienced four phases driven by significant events: "Trump trade reversal - risk appetite recovery - simultaneous rise of stocks and gold - 'TACO trade'" [1] - For 2026, a temporary easing in the US-China rivalry is expected in the first three quarters, but risks may rise around the US midterm elections [1] - The US is in a downward credit cycle, attempting to reverse the trend through policy combinations, while China is in the early stages of a new credit expansion [1] Precious Metals - In 2025, precious metals like gold and silver reached historical highs, driven by initial concerns over inflation and later by interest rate cuts and structural squeezes [2] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to favor precious metals due to continued fiscal and monetary easing in the US, with inflation remaining sticky [2] - Gold's long-term bull market is supported by sovereign debt issues, de-globalization, and ongoing asset reallocation by central banks and private sectors [2] - Silver is projected to face a supply deficit of 2,950 tons, with industrial demand remaining resilient [2] Copper - In 2025, copper prices unexpectedly rose due to increased mining disruptions and supportive macro conditions [3] - The copper market is expected to remain in a tight balance in 2026, with supply constraints likely easing by the second half of the year [3] - Consumption growth is projected to stabilize at 2.5% to 3%, supported by demand from electric grids and AI technologies [3] Aluminum - The aluminum market in 2026 is expected to show a pattern of "loose ore, stable aluminum, and high profits" [4] - Upstream bauxite supply is expected to be ample, with alumina facing oversupply pressures [4] - Domestic aluminum production is nearing its peak, while global supply is slightly oversupplied [4] Nickel - The nickel market is anticipated to continue facing oversupply in 2026, with prices under downward pressure [5] - The introduction of MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) is expected to significantly lower cost support for nickel prices [5] - Overall, the market is expected to remain bearish due to weak stainless steel demand and insufficient growth in the new energy sector [5] Tin - The global tin market is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2026, with demand driven by AI-related electronics showing explosive growth [6] - Supply recovery is anticipated from Myanmar and Indonesia, leading to a slight increase in global tin ingot production [6] - Price expectations are set between $31,700 and $40,000 per ton for LME tin [6] Zinc - The zinc market is expected to continue showing significant divergence between domestic and international trends in 2026 [7] - Domestic supply is expected to increase significantly, while demand remains weak due to real estate constraints [7] - Overall, zinc prices are projected to fluctuate within a range of 21,500 to 24,500 yuan per ton [7] Lead - The lead market is expected to show a "tight ore, loose ingot, and strong domestic, weak foreign" structure in 2026 [8] - Global lead supply is expected to be strong, while demand remains weak, leading to an overall surplus of about 100,000 tons [8] - Price expectations are set between 16,600 and 18,000 yuan per ton for domestic lead [8] Black Metals - The black metal market is expected to see a deep V-shaped reversal in 2025, with steel demand continuing to decline [10] - Iron ore is entering a loosening cycle, while coal prices may remain stable due to supportive policies [10] - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize around 1,410 yuan per ton [10] Silicon - The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to show relative supply looseness in 2026 [11] - Industrial silicon supply is projected to reach 4.95 million tons, while demand growth is expected to be only 4% [11] - Price expectations for industrial silicon are set between 7,000 and 10,500 yuan per ton [11] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [12] - Despite a projected 23% increase in global lithium resources, domestic demand is expected to grow by 20% [12] - Price expectations are set between 70,000 and 150,000 yuan per ton, with an average price around 100,000 yuan per ton [12]

早上好！ 经过4天的休整，国内期货市场即将迎来2026年的首个交易日。 各位粉丝也将迎来2026年的首笔交易，愿各位粉丝的账户金额如年份一样越来越大！ 据新华社报道，委内瑞拉国防部4日发布政府公报表示，该国已启动全面战备状态。 委国防部长洛佩斯通过该国国家电视台宣读这一公报称，委军方将继续动用一切可用力量，维护军事防 御、国内秩序及和平，以对抗帝国主义侵略，确保国家的自由、独立和主权。 公报还表示，委方强烈谴责美国绑架其总统马杜罗以及美军冷血谋杀委方大量安保人员、士兵和无辜平 民的行径。 特朗普威胁委内瑞拉代理总统，还称"绝对需要格陵兰岛" 美国总统特朗普4日在接受采访时对委内瑞拉代理总统罗德里格斯发出威胁，称她如"不做正确的事"将 付出"沉重代价"，"可能比马杜罗的代价还要高昂"。报道说，特朗普明确表示，他不会容忍罗德里格斯 公然反对美国对委内瑞拉进行的军事行动。 期货日报为各位粉丝准备了精美的资讯"大餐"：报纸重磅推出《2026中国期货业白皮书》、视频号推出 《开市必读》《黑天鹅》等精彩视频……期待各位移步浏览。 一起来看会对市场产生深刻影响的重要资讯。 委内瑞拉军方：已启动全面战备状态 特朗普还宣称，委 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, global macroeconomic uncertainty drove structural market trends, with rising prices for precious and industrial metals, and a "slow bull" market in A-shares supported by relative certainty [3][4] - The performance of precious metals, industrial metals, and rare metals was influenced by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors, leading to significant price increases [3][4] - The "strong stocks, weak bonds" trend characterized the market, with equity markets performing well, particularly in hard technology sectors like AI and non-ferrous metals [4][9] Group 2 - In 2026, the global market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on growth and inflation driving asset allocation, influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve policies and the progress of AI technology [6][8] - The anticipated economic growth center for 2026 is around 2.6%, with key macro variables including U.S. fiscal policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7][8] - The demand for metals such as copper, silver, and aluminum is expected to rise due to the AI industry's growth, although supply-side growth may lag, leading to potential price volatility [9][11] Group 3 - The commodity market in 2026 is projected to remain strong under "macro easing and micro improvement," but trading logic will differ across various commodities [11] - The chemical sector, particularly in photovoltaic and lithium battery industries, may see price recoveries if supply-side reforms are implemented [11][12] - The recommendation for 2026 asset allocation is to actively hold quality equity assets while managing risks, as market fluctuations are expected in the latter half of the year [12]

早上好！ 一起来看会对市场产生深刻影响的重要资讯。 委内瑞拉军方：已启动全面战备状态 据新华社报道，委内瑞拉国防部4日发布政府公报表示，该国已启动全面战备状态。 委国防部长洛佩斯通过该国国家电视台宣读这一公报称，委军方将继续动用一切可用力量，维护军事防 御、国内秩序及和平，以对抗帝国主义侵略，确保国家的自由、独立和主权。 公报还表示，委方强烈谴责美国绑架其总统马杜罗以及美军冷血谋杀委方大量安保人员、士兵和无辜平 民的行径。 特朗普威胁委内瑞拉代理总统，还称"绝对需要格陵兰岛" 美国总统特朗普4日在接受采访时对委内瑞拉代理总统罗德里格斯发出威胁，称她如"不做正确的事"将 付出"沉重代价"，"可能比马杜罗的代价还要高昂"。报道说，特朗普明确表示，他不会容忍罗德里格斯 公然反对美国对委内瑞拉进行的军事行动。 特朗普还宣称，委内瑞拉可能不会是美国干预的最后一个国家，并称"我们绝对需要格陵兰岛"。 特朗普政府要求美国石油公司投资委内瑞拉 据新华社援引美国《政治报》网站3日报道，美国白宫已要求美国各大石油公司对委内瑞拉大量投资， 修复委内瑞拉原油开采基础设施。 报道称，有官员最近数周内告诉美国石油企业高管，如果他们"希望 ...