Market Overview - On January 2, US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.19%, S&P 500 up 0.58%, and Nasdaq up 1.03% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw significant gains, with ASML rising over 7% and Micron Technology up nearly 6% [1] - Chinese concept stocks surged, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index soaring 4%, and notable gains in Baidu (up 11.35%) and others [1] Performance Summary - By market close, US indices showed mixed results; Nasdaq fell 0.03%, while S&P 500 rose 0.19% and Dow Jones increased by 0.66% [3] - Notable tech stocks had varied performances, with ASML and Micron reaching historical highs, while Tesla and Microsoft dropped over 2% [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 4.38%, with Baidu gaining 15% and other major Chinese stocks also performing well [3] Sector Highlights - Semiconductor stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC saw significant increases, with Hua Hong up over 9% [5] - The innovative drug sector also performed well, with notable gains in companies like Innovent Biologics and Hengrui Medicine [5] - The solar energy sector experienced a boost, with GCL-Poly Energy rising over 22% [5] Future Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% upside potential for the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, citing factors like easing core risks and favorable regulatory environments [6] - Analysts expect a "spring market" in A-shares, driven by improved market sentiment and increased trading volumes [7][8] - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking a previous downtrend and trading volumes rising above 2 trillion yuan [9][10] Investment Sentiment - Analysts note that the current market environment is more favorable compared to previous periods, with expectations of continued liquidity and supportive macro policies [10][11] - The anticipated "spring rally" is supported by historical trends and positive macroeconomic signals, with a focus on sectors like commercial aerospace and military [12][13]

据Czarnikow测算，2025/2026榨季全球食糖消费量预计为1.778亿吨，而产量为1.853亿吨，供应过剩量 达740万吨。长期来看，巴西玉米乙醇产能加速扩张及印度燃料乙醇政策调整，可能进一步挤压糖料需 求。 国内糖市供应压力较大 据马志淳介绍，中国2025/2026榨季国产糖产量预计为1180万吨，广西、云南产量明显增长。广西产量 增长受益于面积增加与单产提升，云南产量增长则因降雨充沛推动大厂提前开榨。广东受台风影响产量 微降，内蒙古甜菜因病虫害减产。 "当前进口糖到港量偏高，配额外成本优势凸显。"马志淳说，2025年1—11月巴西对中国出口食糖 437.18万吨，全年预估进口量为490万吨。配额外进口成本约5070元/吨，比国内综合成本低3380元/吨， 配额外进口替代效应明显。 近日，广西泛糖科技有限公司产业研究主管马志淳做客期货日报"大势观澜·深一度"栏目，就2025/2026 榨季全球糖市供需格局进行了深度剖析。 马志淳认为，随着北半球主产国进入新榨季，全球糖市供需格局呈现"外强内弱"特征。国际糖业咨询机 构预计，2025/2026榨季全球食糖供应过剩量将达到740万吨，创近十年新高；而国 ...

应趋紧。截至2025年12月24日，COMEX白银期货库存约为4.51亿盎司，虽然维持高位，但注册仓单处 于历史相对低位，大量白银被长期持有者锁定，导致可用于期货交割的流动性库存实际上非常紧张。 本周，白银市场经历了一场"过山车"行情。周一，COMEX白银期货价格一度逼近84美元/盎司的历史高 位，随后断崖式下跌，单日跌幅一度超10%；周三，COMEX白银期货价格再次大幅下跌；周五是2026 年国际市场首个交易日，贵金属板块迎来开门红，金银价格集体反弹。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达告诉期货日报记者，近期外盘白银价格暴涨暴跌，核心原因是海外监管机构 与多头之间持续博弈。近期，白银价格创历史新高后，海外交易上调保证金压制多头资金抱团投机形成 的结构性行情，导致部分多头资金集中获利平仓，引发了高位踩踏式回调。新年首个交易日，银价快速 反弹的原因是国际市场的结构性"缺货"情况并未改变——当前全球可交割白银库存水平极低，金融宏观 资本大幅涌入白银市场锁定大量可交割资源，使白银市场的供应刚性与需求弹性形成短期错配。 看向基本面，据金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰介绍，全球矿产银产量在2025年并未出现显著增长，需求 则爆发式增长 ...

看向基本面，据金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰介绍，全球矿产银产量在2025年并未出现显著增长，需求则爆发 式增长。2025年被称为"AI工业化元年"，人工智能硬件对银的需求激增，叠加光伏和新能源汽车对银的需求持 续放量，工业用银占比进一步提升。当前市场正处于结构性供应短缺的状态，2025年是白银连续第五年供不应 求，2026年预计供应缺口仍将超过2900吨。 顾冯达认为，白银市场供需错配的根本原因是供应难以快速增长。不过，前期推动白银价格飙涨的"大多头"， 在海外交易所大举提升保证金的情况下可能面临资金成本压力，加杠杆"逼空"拉涨的模式或许在中期难以为 继，市场正从多头情绪驱动，转向对实际供需和宏观政策的敏感博弈，波动加剧将成为新常态。 "截至2025年12月31日，白银显性库存呈现'外增内减、总体偏紧'的格局。"吴梓杰说，最新数据显示，上期所 白银库存降至691.638吨。国内库存持续去化，显示出国内下游备货需求依然旺盛，现货市场供应趋紧。截至 2025年12月24日，COMEX白银期货库存约为4.51亿盎司，虽然维持高位，但注册仓单处于历史相对低位，大量 白银被长期持有者锁定，导致可用于期货交割的流动性库存实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The propane dehydrogenation (PDH) industry is facing significant losses, with profits dropping to around -1400 yuan/ton, marking the lowest level in nearly six years. There are expectations of widespread shutdowns in the PDH industry this month, raising concerns about the impact on downstream products like propylene, polypropylene (PP), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) [1][2]. Industry Profit Trends - The PDH industry's profit trajectory showed a clear "rise and fall" pattern last year, peaking in July and August due to low raw material prices and a rebound in downstream PP prices. However, since mid-October, profits have been in decline, leading to significant losses [1]. - The main reason for the continued losses is the weakening price of PP, with supply outpacing demand as PP production capacity is expected to grow by 12% in 2025 and around 10% in 2026, while actual demand growth is only projected at 4%-5% [1][2]. Raw Material Pressure - The pressure on raw materials is increasing, with seasonal purchasing expectations in India and Japan driving up import propane prices. Domestic deep processing enterprises report high spot prices for propane, further squeezing PDH industry profit margins. Additionally, the current demand for PP is weak, limiting price recovery potential [2]. Impact on Related Products LPG - LPG demand is relatively stable, but its price is influenced by the PDH industry's demand. Since November, LPG's fundamentals have shown a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern. If PDH operations reduce or shut down, LPG's price stability may be compromised [4]. - Long-term projections indicate that LPG production capacity in the U.S. and the Middle East will continue to increase, leading to potential downward pressure on LPG prices if PDH operations decline [4]. PP - As the core downstream product of PDH, PP prices have been declining for three consecutive months since September. While expectations of reduced PDH operations may provide short-term support for PP prices, high inventory levels and upcoming new production capacity in 2026 will likely maintain long-term supply pressure [5]. Propylene - Propylene, being a direct downstream product of PDH, will see a significant supply reduction if PDH operations shut down, potentially providing price support. However, the ongoing pressure on PP margins and reduced operating rates may limit propylene's price increase potential [6]. Trading Opportunities - Market participants should focus on the actual shutdown situation of PDH units in January. If the number of shutdowns increases, it could significantly support PP and propylene prices. Conversely, if shutdowns are fewer than expected, related products may face downward pressure [8]. - Long-term variables to monitor include domestic macro policy releases and the impact of new production capacity planned for 2026, which could affect the supply-demand balance for PP and propylene [8].

编者按：近期，贵金属、铂族金属和有色金属板块大幅波动。期货日报邀请多位重磅嘉宾做客"期货大 家谈——对话首席洞见金属新主线"直播间，为大家破译金属市场新主线。 在美元信用受到挑战的背景下，全球央行购金行为从"托底需求"逐渐转变为"主动配置"。喻松称，央行 购金并非始于近期，而是自2008年金融危机后便持续进行，在2022年俄乌发生冲突后进一步加速。央行 购金已经从单纯的资产保值，转向对资产安全的战略性重视。 数据显示，2023年全球央行购金1037吨，占全球黄金需求的23.3%。值得注意的是，在美联储大幅加 息、美元利率高企的2022—2024年，金价仍稳步攀升，央行购金是重要支撑。今年以来，投资需求接棒 成为金价上涨的主力驱动，前三季度黄金投资需求超1500吨，同比大幅增长。 喻松认为，当前贵金属板块内部也存在明显分化。黄金作为货币属性最强的品种，其价格上涨更多由去 美元化趋势、央行配置需求驱动，呈现"台阶式上行"的特征，回调幅度有限。 而白银则在货币属性之外，叠加了强劲的商品属性。特别是新能源产业对白银浆料的需求持续增长，加 上全球库存持续下降、供应弹性有限，共同推动其价格快速上涨。今年白银价格涨幅超过1 ...

Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. Department of Commerce has lowered the proposed tariff rates for 13 Italian pasta exporters, with Garofalo's rate reduced to 13.89%, La Molisana to 2.26%, and the remaining 11 companies to a uniform rate of 9.09% [3] - This tariff adjustment coincides with the U.S. decision to delay the increase of tariffs on certain imported furniture by one year, originally set to take effect on January 1, 2026, now postponed to January 1, 2027 [3] Group 2: Venezuelan Oil Production Decline - Venezuela's oil production in the Orinoco heavy oil belt has dropped approximately 25%, with daily output falling to 498,131 barrels as of December 29, 2025 [11] - The decline is attributed to insufficient storage capacity and slowed export rates, leading to the closure of oil wells in some fields [11] - The geopolitical tensions and U.S. sanctions have significantly impacted Venezuela's oil exports, resulting in a forced reduction of about 500,000 barrels per day [11] Group 3: Oil Market Outlook - The global oil market is facing challenges due to geopolitical conflicts and supply-demand imbalances, with WTI crude futures down about 20% and Brent crude down over 18% for the year [11] - Analysts suggest that the oil market remains weak, with potential oversupply pressures expected to increase in the first quarter of 2026, limiting the potential for price rebounds [13] - The ongoing U.S.-Venezuela conflict may lead to a structural improvement in the oil market if production cuts in Venezuela continue, with Brent crude potentially recovering to above $65 per barrel [14]

Core Viewpoint - The propane dehydrogenation (PDH) industry is experiencing significant losses, with profits dropping to around -1400 yuan/ton, marking the lowest level in nearly six years. There are expectations of widespread shutdowns in the PDH industry this month, raising concerns about the impact on downstream products like propylene, polypropylene (PP), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) [1][2]. Industry Profit Trends - The PDH industry's profit trajectory showed a clear "rise and fall" pattern last year, peaking in July and August due to low raw material prices and a rebound in downstream PP prices. However, since mid-October, profits have been in decline, leading to significant losses [1]. - The continuous loss in the PDH industry is primarily attributed to weakening PP prices, with supply outpacing demand as PP production capacity is expected to grow by 12% in 2025 and around 10% in 2026, while actual demand growth is only projected at 4%-5% [1][2]. Raw Material Pressure - The pressure on raw materials is increasing, with seasonal purchasing expectations in India and Japan driving up import propane prices. Domestic deep processing enterprises report high spot price discounts on propane, further squeezing PDH industry profit margins. Additionally, the current demand for PP is weak, limiting price recovery potential [2]. Impact on Related Products LPG - LPG demand is relatively stable, but its price is influenced by the PDH industry's demand. Since November, LPG's fundamentals have shown a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, with prices remaining firm. However, if PDH operations reduce or shut down, LPG's strong market position may weaken [4]. - Long-term projections indicate that LPG production capacity in the U.S. and the Middle East will continue to increase, leading to potential downward pressure on LPG prices if PDH operations decline [4]. PP - As the core downstream product of PDH, PP prices have been declining for three consecutive months since September due to supply pressures. While expectations of reduced PDH operations may provide short-term support for PP prices, high inventory levels and upcoming new production capacity in 2026 suggest that supply pressures will persist [5]. Propylene - Propylene, as a direct downstream product of PDH, will see a significant supply reduction if PDH operations shut down, potentially providing price support. However, the current profitability of PP powder is under pressure, which may limit propylene's price growth [6]. Trading Opportunities - Market participants should focus on the actual shutdown situation of PDH facilities in January. If the number of shutdowns increases, it could significantly support PP and propylene prices. Conversely, if shutdowns are fewer than expected, related products may face downward pressure [8]. - Long-term variables to monitor include domestic macro policy releases and the impact of new production capacity planned for 2026, which could affect the supply-demand balance for PP and propylene [8].

Market Overview - Silver prices experienced a significant drop, with New York silver prices falling nearly 10% during trading, while both spot silver and gold prices, as well as international oil prices, declined across the board [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.13%, with NIO down over 7%, NetEase down 2%, and Baidu down over 1% [9] - The WTI crude oil futures price decreased by 0.91%, settling at $57.42 per barrel, marking a cumulative decline of approximately 20% for 2025 [9] - COMEX gold futures prices fell by 1.24%, closing at $4,332.1 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of about 55% for 2025 [10] Chinese Stocks Performance - The China concept stock index dropped by 1.4%, with notable declines in electric vehicle manufacturers: NIO fell by 9.45%, XPeng by 5.97%, and Li Auto by 4.81% [5][7][8] - The overall performance of the A-share non-ferrous metal sector was strong, with a 94.73% increase for the year, leading all sectors [12] Copper Market Insights - Copper prices are currently at historical highs, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and safe-haven demand, despite weak domestic consumption and rising inventories [12][14] - Analysts suggest that the current high copper prices reflect optimistic future expectations, with potential catalysts for further increases linked to the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair and anticipated interest rate cuts [14] - The copper market is characterized by a "high copper price, low profit" scenario, which may persist into the first half of 2026 [13]

广州期货深圳分公司的设立是深耕大湾区、服务实体经济的重要举措。未来，分公司将依托广期所创新 产品与深圳金融资源，重点为黄金珠宝、贵金属及科技等领域提供综合金融服务，助力大湾区高质量发 展。 随后，广东省黄金协会副会长叶永光在致辞中表示，广州期货落户深圳将为本地产业链发展注入新动 力。深圳麦金网络科技有限公司总经理谢江欢代表合作企业致辞，期待未来深化协同合作。深圳分公司 总经理黄锐洋则表示，将带领团队扎根深圳，为客户提供专业、稳健的金融服务。 期货日报网讯（记者 饶红浩 ）2025年12月29日上午，广州期货股份有限公司深圳分公司在深圳罗湖水 贝正式开业。深圳市期货业协会副会长田西平、罗湖区东晓街道有关领导、深圳市黄金珠宝首饰行业协 会副会长林畅伟、广东省黄金协会副会长叶永光、广州期货副总经理孙文慧、总经理助理周健锐等多位 领导嘉宾出席开业仪式。 广州期货副总经理孙文慧在开业致辞中表示，深圳分公司的成立是公司产业化、机构化转型的关键一 步。她指出，深圳分公司选址罗湖水贝——这一全球黄金珠宝产业集聚区，正是为了紧抓广州期货交易 所上市铂、钯期货期权的机遇，深入产业一线，更直接地服务实体企业风险管理需求。她强调，深 ...