Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future expectations of the pig farming industry in Guangdong, highlighting the impact of diseases, weather conditions, and market dynamics on production and pricing. Group 1: Disease Impact - In early 2023, there were occurrences of pig diarrhea diseases in various regions, affecting supply and market sentiment [1][11][30] - The heavy rainfall in May and June also contributed to disease issues, impacting the number of pigs available for market [1][11] Group 2: Production Trends - The industry is expected to enter a slow reduction phase in production due to clear government targets for price stabilization and production cuts [2][13] - Major enterprises are likely to see a decrease in breeding costs in the second half of the year, maintaining a low-profit status [2][6] - The average cost of pig farming is around 13.3 CNY/kg, with potential for further reduction [6][19] Group 3: Price Expectations - Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic for price increases around August, but there are concerns about whether prices will exceed previous highs [2][16] - The southern provinces are currently showing positive price expectations, which may influence the overall market [2][13] Group 4: Company Insights - Company A has a stable production capacity of approximately 104,000 pigs, but has seen a decrease in monthly output due to disease impacts [5][8] - Company B plans to increase its annual output to 2 million pigs, with a current monthly output of about 150,000 [14] - Company D aims to increase its production capacity to 230,000 pigs, with a target of reducing costs to below 14 CNY/kg [19][21] Group 5: Trade and Market Dynamics - Trade flows primarily target the Guangdong market, with some exports to neighboring regions [9][22] - The demand for pork is expected to improve, particularly as the market enters a seasonal peak, although high prices may dampen consumption [10][15] - The overall feed sales in June showed a 4-5% increase, indicating stable demand in the market [18][25]

Group 1 - The macro market atmosphere remains neutral to bullish, with concerns about Powell's dismissal easing after Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, leading to a recovery in market sentiment and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields [1][3] - Gold and silver prices experienced a decline, with COMEX gold down 0.51% and silver down 0.26%, while copper prices saw an increase of 3.99% on COMEX [2][22] - The copper market is closely monitoring the upcoming implementation of U.S. tariffs on imported copper, with market sentiment affected by rising Treasury yields and a rebound in the dollar [3][6] Group 2 - The precious metals market faced pressure as risk appetite increased, leading to a pullback in gold prices despite macroeconomic support for high price levels [4][54] - COMEX copper prices reached a historical high before retreating, indicating significant resistance above 80,000 CNY/ton, with domestic refined copper consumption showing signs of seasonal weakness [6][12] - The COMEX copper price curve remains in contango, with inventories nearing 250,000 tons, suggesting potential for further accumulation in U.S. copper stocks [7][8] Group 3 - The copper concentrate TC weekly index increased slightly, indicating a stable yet low activity in the spot market, with processing fees showing a slight recovery [9][12] - COMEX gold and silver inventories increased, with gold inventory rising to 37.76 million ounces and silver to approximately 50.03 million ounces [39][44] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 13 tons, indicating a continued preference for gold among investors [44]

以下文章来源于一德菁英汇 ，作者一德菁菁 一德菁英汇 . 期货交易者的紧密合作伙伴！ 文 | 一德菁英汇 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2021年10月28日 背景：动力煤紧缺+焦煤供应断裂； 市场反应：从高点回落1000-1500元/吨，煤价回归上涨前水平； 驱动转变：发改委保供八项要求，动力煤保供，焦煤转产恢复；铁水产量骤降，需求坍塌加速下跌。 2023年9月26日 背景：安监趋严+碳元素库存新低； 市场反应：连跌14日最低见1647元/吨，一个月左右调整后再次上行； 驱动延续：矿山安全帮扶延长至2024年5月，供应缺口持续支撑。 当前核心矛盾：供需边际变化 基本面：若供应恢复或进口增加，需求压力得以缓解，情绪趋缓； 政策面：政策执行力度影响煤炭的供应水平。 大商所7月25日发布公告，经研究决定，自2025年7月29日交易时（即7月28日夜盘交易小节时）起，非期货公司会员或者客户在焦煤期货 JM2509合约上单日开仓量不得超过500手，在焦煤期货其他合约上单日开仓量不得超过2,000手。该单日开仓量是指非期货公司会员或者客 户当日在单个合约上的买开仓数量与卖开仓数量之和。 ...

Group 1 - The article promotes a membership program that offers various benefits, including access to upgraded reports and exclusive content [4][5][6] - Members can enjoy weekly updates on major asset classes, including futures and commodities, along with specialized research frameworks [6] - The program includes personalized services such as one-on-one coaching, trading management guidance, and a structured trading training camp [8] Group 2 - The membership fee is set at 599 per year, providing access to a range of resources and tools for investment management [6] - Members will receive exclusive invitations to live sessions with industry experts and access to a dedicated online community for discussions [6][8] - The program aims to enhance trading skills through practical exercises and systematic trading frameworks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of commodity market trends, focusing on quantitative indicators and fundamental assessments of various commodities, including hot-rolled steel, soda ash, and methanol. Group 1: Quantitative Indicators - The trend for hot-rolled steel (热卷) has shown a decrease, with a value of 1.85 on July 24, 2025, indicating a weakening bullish trend compared to previous days [4][5]. - The 50-stock index (50股指) has a trend value of 1.48, suggesting a stable but slightly weakening bullish sentiment [4][5]. - The 300-stock index (300股指) trend value is 1.71, indicating a similar weakening trend [4][5]. - Methanol (甲醇) shows a trend value of 1.97, indicating a strengthening bullish trend [4]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The supply and demand dynamics for hot-rolled steel indicate a high weekly production level, with demand also at a high compared to previous years, but the overall supply is under pressure [6][7]. - The total inventory of hot-rolled steel is below the levels of previous years, which may support prices despite weak margins [6][7]. - For soda ash, the inventory has reached record highs, and both production methods are currently unprofitable [6]. - Methanol inventory at East China ports is at a low compared to previous years but is showing signs of recovery [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - For soda ash, a short-term rebound trading strategy is suggested, with specific entry and exit points outlined for traders [8]. - The 300-stock index also has a short-term rebound strategy, with similar trading guidelines provided [9]. - Methanol is recommended for a short-term rebound, with entry points specified for both existing and new traders [10].

Group 1 - The article promotes a membership program that offers various benefits, including access to upgraded reports, market analysis, and exclusive online discussions [4][5][6]. - Members can enjoy weekly updates on major asset classes, including futures and commodities, along with specialized training programs and personalized coaching [6][8]. - The membership fee is set at 599 per year, providing access to a range of resources and tools for investment management [6][7]. Group 2 - The program includes a 1-on-1 coaching service aimed at developing trading strategies and providing guidance on trading management [8]. - There are structured training camps designed to build a comprehensive trading system through practical exercises and reviews [8]. - The initiative also features a trader incubation plan that combines trading models, market discussions, and regular reviews to foster self-managed trading teams [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extreme volatility in the futures market, particularly referencing the "Double 11 Night Crash" in 2016, and highlights the current trends in various commodities driven by policy expectations and market narratives [2][4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Behavior - The "Double 11 Night Crash" in 2016 saw extreme fluctuations where commodities like cotton dropped from a limit-up of +7% to limit-down of -7% within minutes, showcasing the potential for rapid market shifts [2][3]. - The article emphasizes that the current market behavior reflects a similar pattern where narratives and policy expectations drive prices, often ignoring fundamental supply and demand realities [4][5][6]. Group 2: Current Market Trends - Recent trends indicate a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in sectors like new energy and construction materials, with notable price increases such as 57% for polysilicon and 33.4% for coking coal since July [31][32]. - The article notes that the futures prices are rising faster than spot prices, leading to a narrowing basis, which could indicate a potential correction depending on downstream replenishment intentions [32][34]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain dynamics are highlighted, particularly in the coking coal market, where the disconnect between upstream price increases and downstream demand could lead to market pressures [35][37]. - The article warns that high prices could suppress speculative demand and stimulate foreign production, creating resistance to further price increases [38]. Group 4: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The article discusses the implications of government policies on supply-side reforms, suggesting that past experiences with supply-side reforms will influence current market expectations and behaviors [40][41]. - It raises concerns about the potential for demand-side pain in the current economic environment, contrasting it with previous supply-side reforms that had stronger demand support [44].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal prices, following a significant drop earlier in the year, raises questions about the potential for a bull market, drawing parallels to historical trends in the past 20 years [1]. Group 1: Historical Bull Markets - The coking coal market has experienced four notable bull markets since the launch of coking coal futures in 2013 [1]. - The first bull market occurred in 2016, driven by supply-side reforms that reduced excess capacity, leading to a price increase from 515 points to 1676 points within the year [4][5]. - The second bull market spanned from August 2020 to March 2022, where prices surged from 1027.5 points to a peak of 3878.5 points, influenced by post-COVID recovery and supply chain disruptions [10][11]. - The third bull market, from November 2021 to May 2022, saw prices rise from 1783 points to 3297.5 points, driven by international supply chain issues and domestic production constraints [14][15]. Group 2: Recent Market Dynamics - In 2023, coking coal prices rebounded from a low of 1195 points to 2179 points, attributed to low inventory levels and supportive policies in the real estate sector [20][21]. - The market is currently experiencing strong sentiment, with expectations of continued price strength due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [25]. - However, the medium-term outlook remains cautious, as fundamental supply-demand dynamics will ultimately dictate market conditions, necessitating close monitoring of production recovery and import levels [26].

Core Viewpoints - The current conflict does not have a foundation for a long-term hot war, and the probability of a full-scale war is very low [1][17] - If the conflict ends before September, the rubber tapping disruption may lead to a reduction of 0.5 to 2.62 million tons in Thailand's production, which is relatively limited in impact [1][17] - The expectation for continued production growth in Southeast Asia remains unchanged, but the future increment is still under discussion; the supply of natural rubber is strong while demand is weak, leading to ongoing inventory accumulation and a stable fundamental outlook, with potential short-term fluctuations due to war factors [1][17] Conflict Background - The conflict arises from the disputed 817-kilometer land border between Thailand and Cambodia, particularly concerning the Preah Vihear Temple and surrounding 4.6 square kilometers of land, which Thailand claims sovereignty over despite a 1907 treaty that assigned it to Cambodia [1] Timeline of Events - Initial skirmish occurred on May 28, followed by a landmine incident and escalating diplomatic tensions in July, culminating in armed conflict on July 24, resulting in casualties on both sides [2] Supply Impact - The main conflict area accounts for 5.63% of Thailand's total rubber production, with the northeastern region (Surin, Si Sa Ket, Ubon Ratchathani) projected to produce 26.98 million tons in 2024, representing 29.27% of the country's total output [4][5] - If rubber tapping resumes before August, the maximum production reduction in July is estimated at 0.5 million tons; if the conflict continues into August, the reduction could reach 2.12 million tons [7][8] Market Conditions - As of July 25, the prices for natural rubber in Thailand showed slight fluctuations, with the price for cup rubber at 50 THB/kg and sheet rubber at 63.11 THB/kg, while the spot market in Qingdao saw an increase of 40 USD/ton [11]

Group 1 - The article promotes a membership program that offers various benefits, including access to upgraded reports, market analysis, and exclusive online discussions [4][5][6]. - Members can enjoy weekly updates on major asset classes, including futures and commodities, along with specialized training programs and personalized coaching [6][8]. - The membership fee is set at 599 per year, providing access to a range of resources and tools for investment management [6][7]. Group 2 - The program includes a one-on-one coaching service aimed at developing trading strategies and providing guidance on trading management [8]. - A futures trading training camp is offered, which lasts about one week and focuses on building a systematic trading framework through practical exercises and reviews [8]. - The initiative also features a trader incubation plan that combines trading models, market discussions, and regular reviews to foster self-managed trading teams [8].