银行行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 业绩改善，扩表放缓，不良平稳 ——23 家 A 股上市银行 2024 年年报综述 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国家/地区 中国 行业 银行行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 02 日 看好（维持） | 屈俊 | qujun@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523060001 | | 于博文 | yubowen1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524020002 | | | | | 5200 亿元溢价定增拟落地，增厚资本、未 | 2025-03-30 | | --- | --- | | 雨绸缪：四家国有行注资公告点评 | | | 政府债支撑社融增速企稳回升，化债扰动 | 2025-03-15 | | 贷款增长：——2 月金融数据点评 | | | 如何估测债券收益率波动对银行业绩的影 | 2025-03-09 | | 响？ | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一 ...

24 年业绩有所承压，持续强化新兴产业布 局 核心观点 中航机载 600372.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报调整营收增速和毛利率，下调 25、26 年 EPS 为 0.26、0.29 元（前 值为 0.49、0.55 元），新增 27 年 EPS 为 0.33 元，参考可比公司 25 年 47 倍 PE， 给予目标价 12.22 元，维持增持评级。 风险提示：军工订单和收入确认进度不及预期；科研院所改制进度等不及预期。 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年全年实现营收 238.80 亿元（-17.68%）；实现归 母净利润 10.41 亿元（-44.83%）。单季度看，2024Q4 实现营收 73.13 亿元（- 11.64%），归母净利润-1.62 亿元（-168.62%）。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 29,007 | 23,880 | 25,842 | 28,407 | ...

24 年业绩有所承压，持续强化新兴产业布 局 核心观点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年全年实现营收 238.80 亿元（-17.68%）；实现归 母净利润 10.41 亿元（-44.83%）。单季度看，2024Q4 实现营收 73.13 亿元（- 11.64%），归母净利润-1.62 亿元（-168.62%）。 风险提示：军工订单和收入确认进度不及预期；科研院所改制进度等不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 29,007 | 23,880 | 25,842 | 28,407 | 31,239 | | 同比增长 (%) | 4.6% | -17.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,230 | 1,286 | 1,602 | 1,797 | 1,990 | | 同比增长 (%) | 15.6% | -42.3% | 24.5% | 12.2% | 10.7% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.04 CNY [3][6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 754 million CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.28%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million CNY, a decrease of 2.59% [2][5]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 247 million CNY, marking a 28.17% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 31 million CNY, which is a 61.20% increase year-on-year [2][10]. - The company is expected to see net profits of 84 million CNY, 95 million CNY, and 106 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.26 CNY, 0.29 CNY, and 0.32 CNY [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 665 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 17.3%, while the forecast for 2024 is 754 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 13.3% [5][14]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 46.9%, down from 50.7% in 2023, while the net margin is expected to be 9.2% [5][14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 9.6% in 2024, with an upward trend expected in subsequent years [5][14]. Business Segment Performance - The company's self-owned brand revenue in 2024 reached 523 million CNY domestically and 64 million CNY overseas, with year-on-year growth of 5% and 95% respectively [10]. - The OEM business generated 167 million CNY in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22% [10]. - The company has seen a sequential recovery in revenue growth, with Q1 to Q4 growth rates of -7%, +8%, +22%, and +28% respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.04 CNY [3][6][11] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 754 million CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.28%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million CNY, a decrease of 2.59% [2][5] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 247 million CNY, marking a 28.17% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 31 million CNY, which is a 61.20% increase year-on-year [2][10] - The company is expected to see net profits of 84 million CNY, 95 million CNY, and 106 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.26 CNY, 0.29 CNY, and 0.32 CNY [3][11] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 665 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 17.3%, while the projected revenue for 2024 is 754 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 13.3% [5][14] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 46.9%, down from 50.7% in 2023, while the net profit margin is expected to be 9.2% [5][14] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 969 million CNY in 2023 to 1,108 million CNY by 2027 [14]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 高技术行业推升 PMI——3 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 全球产业链竞争加剧，外需变化快于预期。 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 02 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | | | 东方战略周观察：如何理解新兴市场股市 | 2025-03-31 | | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a 2025 PE average valuation of 20 times [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's terminal sales in the first quarter exceeded wholesale sales by approximately 135,000 vehicles, indicating a healthy channel improvement. The overall wholesale sales in March reached 385,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a month-on-month increase of 30.8% [10]. - The company is making progress in its reforms and partnerships, particularly with Huawei, which is expected to enhance its brand influence and sales performance. The domestic sales of the company's self-owned brands saw a significant year-on-year improvement, with a 58.7% increase in the first quarter [10]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 project EPS of 0.15 CNY, 1.07 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively, with a predicted revenue of 611.67 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.8% [4][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 720.99 billion CNY, with a slight increase to 726.20 billion CNY in 2023. However, a significant drop to 611.67 billion CNY is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery to 674.25 billion CNY in 2025 and 721.88 billion CNY in 2026 [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased from 16.12 billion CNY in 2022 to 14.11 billion CNY in 2023, with a forecasted drop to 1.77 billion CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 12.38 billion CNY in 2025 and 13.39 billion CNY in 2026 [4][11]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 10.2% in 2023 to 11.0% by 2026, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 1.9% in 2026 [4][11].

防务需求阶段性放缓导致营收下滑，为保 交付带来存货高增 核心观点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年全年实现营收 50.25 亿元（-19.08%），实现归母 净利润 3.47 亿元（-53.75%）。单季度看，2024Q4 实现营收 10.30 亿元 （+2.31%）， 实现归母净利润-0.65 亿元（-141.72%）。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报调整营收增速和毛利率，上调 25、26 年 EPS 为 1.93、2.35 元（前 值为 1.86、2.32 元），新增 27 年 EPS 为 2.77 元，参考可比公司 25 年 37 倍 PE， 给予目标价 71.41 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：军品订单下放和收入确认进度不及预期；降价幅度具有不确定性等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -0.99 | 9.84 | 16.82 | 47.28 | | 相对表现% | 0.14 | 9.9 | 18.02 | 39.16 | | 沪深 300% | - ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its fourth-quarter performance, with a net profit of 1.29 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.09% [11]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure, which has led to a 6% increase in bearing steel sales and a 38% increase in sales for automotive steel projects [11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.07 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.56 billion yuan, which represents 49.95% of its net profit for 2024 [11]. Financial Information Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 109.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 5.13 billion yuan, down 10.4% year-on-year [11]. - The earnings per share for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 1.12, 1.20, and 1.28 yuan respectively [12]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 12.8%, with a projected increase to 15.0% by 2027 [5][11]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 11.3 for 2025, decreasing to 9.9 by 2027 [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 20 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's terminal sales in the first quarter exceeded wholesale sales by approximately 135,000 vehicles, indicating a healthy channel improvement. The overall wholesale sales in March reached 385,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and a month-on-month increase of 30.8% [10]. - The company is experiencing significant improvements in domestic sales of its self-owned brands, with a year-on-year increase of 58.7% in the first quarter. The sales of new energy vehicles in March reached 125,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 48.2% [10]. - The company is advancing its collaboration with Huawei, aiming to enhance its product development and marketing capabilities, which is expected to gradually improve the sales and brand influence of its self-owned brands [10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 720,988 million CNY, with a projected revenue of 611,672 million CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.8%. However, revenue is expected to recover to 721,878 million CNY by 2026, with a growth rate of 7.1% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16,118 million CNY in 2022, projected to drop to 1,771 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 13,389 million CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 8.2% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.15 CNY in 2024, 1.07 CNY in 2025, and 1.16 CNY in 2026 [2][4].