林泰新材（920106） 证券研究报告·北交所公司深度报告·汽车零部件 乘用车湿式纸基摩擦片国产先锋，混动放量 +产能释放驱动高成长 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 206.56 | 312.58 | 433.80 | 608.18 | 915.45 | | 同比 | 17.33 | 51.33 | 38.78 | 40.20 | 50.52 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 49.18 | 81.04 | 150.16 | 214.54 | 323.16 | | 同比 | 98.44 | 64.78 | 85.28 | 42.88 | 50.63 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.88 | 1.45 | 2.69 | 3.84 | 5.79 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 123.04 | 74.67 | 40.30 | 28.21 | 18.73 | [Table_Tag] [ ...

证券分析师 芦哲 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250706 6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延后至 9 月 2025 年 07 月 06 日 ◼ 6 月非农：新增就业超预期，但数据结构呈现出"强弱互现"的特征。 美国 6 月新增非农就业 14.7 万，预期 10.6 万，前值由 13.9 万上修至 14.4 万，前两月累计修正幅度由-9.5 万转为 1.6 万。6 月美国失业率 4.12%，预期 4.3%，前值 4.24%。劳动参与率 62.28%，预期 62.4%，前 值 62.37%。6 月时薪环比+0.22%，预期+0.3%，前值+0.39%；同比+3.71%， 预期+3.8%，前值+3.81%。从结构来看，14.7 万新增就业有 7.3 万来自 政府部门。虽然联邦政府就业延续缩编，本月减少 0.7 万，但州政府、 地方政府分别贡献 4.7、3.3 万就业。私人部门方面，教育医保（+5.1 万） 与休闲餐旅（+2 万）继续作为非农就业稳定的主要贡献者。如果剔除政 府、教育医保、休闲餐旅，其余行业对本次非农基本没有净正贡献。整 体来看，本次非农数据呈现出"强弱互现"的特征。一方面，非农强 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction PMI for June rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in business activity. The civil engineering PMI has remained above 55.0% for three consecutive months, reflecting accelerated construction in infrastructure projects. New order and business activity expectation indices have also improved, suggesting better project outlooks [2][11][22] - Infrastructure investment has remained stable in the first five months, with high growth rates in water transportation and water management sectors. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the issuance of special bonds and the continuity of fiscal policies on physical output [2][11] - The report highlights the completion of the 800 billion yuan "two重" construction project list, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of key projects and stimulate regional demand, particularly in central and western regions [2][11] - The report anticipates that increased fiscal policy support and improvements in financing will gradually manifest in investment and physical output in the second half of the year, with a focus on infrastructure investment and key regional construction [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two重" construction projects in 2025, with a total of 800 billion yuan planned for 1,459 projects, including major infrastructure and ecological restoration initiatives [14][15] - The June PMI data indicates a recovery in the construction sector, with the business activity index at 52.8% and the civil engineering index at 56.7%, suggesting robust construction activity [16][22] International Expansion - In the first five months of 2025, China's overseas contracting projects saw a 5.4% increase in revenue and a 13% rise in new contracts, with contracts in Belt and Road Initiative countries growing by 20.7% [3][12] - The report suggests that ongoing diplomatic negotiations and trade tensions may enhance cooperation in infrastructure projects, benefiting overseas engineering demand [3][12] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies high-growth areas in specialized manufacturing, energy conservation, and new energy-related infrastructure sectors, recommending companies with relevant transformation strategies [3][12] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Communications Construction, China Power Construction, and China Railway, with additional attention to China Nuclear Engineering and China Chemical Engineering [2][11]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 联储 7 月降息预期被修正，工业金属价格维 持震荡走势 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（6 月 30 日-7 月 4 日），有色板块本周上涨 1.02%，在全部一级行 业中排名中等。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中能源金属板块上涨 1.00%，工业金属板块上涨 1.46%，小金属板块下跌 0.18%，金属新材料板块上涨 0.41%，贵金属板块上涨 0.96%。工业金属方面，美联储 7 月降息预期被修正，美 元及美债利率短期上行，此外铜铝等工业金属下游开工率进一步下滑，本周工业金 属价格维持震荡走势。贵金属方面，本周随着美国国会两院通过了总统特朗普提出 的大规模减税及支出法案，美国联邦财政赤字率水平有望进一步提升，叠加 7 月 9 日的贸易关税暂停最后期限越来越近，不确定性正在重回机构视野，黄金做多美国 通胀的时间或已临近。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：需求下行风险加剧，铜价 Back 结构价差缩小预计短期冲高动能减弱降。截至 7 月 4 日，伦铜报收 9,852 美元/吨，周环比下跌 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the significant potential for valuation recovery in the Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Theme ETF, supported by favorable policies for the technology sector [1][5][6] - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Theme Index (HSSCITI) is currently at a historically low valuation level, with a PE-TTM of 21.92 times and a PB-LF of 3.15 times as of June 30, 2025, indicating a higher safety margin and potential for appreciation [14][15][17] - The technology sector is driven by multiple factors, including continuous inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong stock market, which enhances market activity and investor confidence [26][30][31] Group 2 - The report highlights the increasing demand and integration within the information technology equipment industry, with a net inflow of 32 billion RMB and a growth rate of 58.9% from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [36] - The software services industry is experiencing innovation-driven growth, supported by regulatory improvements, such as the release of guidelines for generative artificial intelligence technology in Hong Kong [36][34] - The professional retail sector is benefiting from a consumption recovery and favorable policies, with a 5.0% year-on-year increase in total retail sales in China as of May 2025 [36][34] Group 3 - The HSSCITI index is concentrated in the information technology sector (66.9%), with significant representation from consumer discretionary (17.9%) and communication services (15.2%) [36][63] - The index's composition includes six sub-industries: software services, information technology equipment, professional retail, media and entertainment, semiconductors, and industrial engineering, reflecting a diverse yet focused investment strategy [36][63][64] - The report indicates that the index's historical performance has been superior to comparable indices, showcasing its potential for long-term investment [9][36]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.10%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.06 percentage points compared to June, while the demand index remained stable[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.98%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.71%, down 0.03 percentage points[6] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.90%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week, indicating a seasonal recovery in loan demand[11] - New RMB loans are expected to be between CNY 1.80 trillion and CNY 2.0 trillion in June, slightly lower than the same period last year by CNY 0.28 trillion to CNY 0.13 trillion[14] - Government net financing reached CNY 1.41 trillion in June, an increase of CNY 0.7 trillion year-on-year, contributing to a projected social financing scale increase of CNY 3.6 trillion to CNY 3.8 trillion[14] Consumption and Production Insights - Passenger car retail sales in June increased by 15% year-on-year, improving from 13% in May[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending June 30 were 95,374 units, slightly down from the previous year[21] - The electricity load of coastal power plants averaged 82.71%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong industrial production[16] Export and Price Trends - The SCFI and CCFI indices for export container prices fell by 98.02 points and 26.35 points, respectively, indicating a decline in export momentum[31] - The average wholesale price of pork is CNY 20.38 per kg, showing a slight increase, while the price of key monitored vegetables is CNY 4.35 per kg, down slightly[37] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector is still under observation[46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a weekly data briefing on the basic chemical industry, covering price and profit changes in various sectors such as polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical industries, as well as the performance of related listed companies [2][8][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance** - The basic chemical index had a weekly increase of 0.8%, a monthly increase of 3.3%, a quarterly increase of 3.1%, and an annual increase of 15.9% as of July 4, 2025. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical had a weekly increase of 1.3%, Baofeng Energy had a weekly decrease of 1.5%, Satellite Chemical had a weekly increase of 4.0%, and Huarun Hengsheng had a weekly increase of 1.0% [8] - In terms of profitability, Wanhua Chemical's estimated归母净利润 in 2025 is 13966 million yuan, Baofeng Energy's is 12360 million yuan, Satellite Chemical's is 7004 million yuan, and Huarun Hengsheng's is 4265 million yuan [8] - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - The average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI this week were 16940, 15220, and 12000 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 100, - 430, and + 775 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 3718, 3061, and 897 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of + 162, - 116, and + 1177 yuan/ton [2][8] - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - Raw material prices: The average prices of ethane, propane,动力煤, and naphtha this week were 1198, 4071, 470, and 4108 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 25, - 118, + 0, and - 114 yuan/ton [2][8] - Product prices and profits: The average price of polyethylene was 7946 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1365, 2091, and 189 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 50, - 19, and + 94 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 7120 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were 56, 1742, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 94, - 11, and + 101 yuan/ton [2] - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2242, 1797, 4020, and 2349 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 28, - 5, + 60, and - 32 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 352, 144, - 186, and 6 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of + 16, - 12, + 28, and + 2 yuan/ton [2][10] 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trend** - No detailed content provided in the given text - **2.2 Polyurethane Plate** - Analyzes the price and profit trends of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI [2][8] - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Plate** - Discusses the price trends of raw materials such as ethane, propane,动力煤, and naphtha, as well as the profit situations of different production processes for polyethylene and polypropylene [2][8] - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Plate** - Covers the price and profit trends of coal - chemical products such as synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid [2][10]

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：长丝价格继续下跌，库存增加 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月6日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2673元/吨，环比+0元/吨（环比+0%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1124元/吨，环比-117元/吨（环比-9%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6989/7250/8268元/吨，环比分别-186/-229/-161元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为64/-29/50元/吨，环比分别+1/-27/+18元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 21.7/22.4/28.6天，环比分别+4.5/+3.5/+3.3天，长丝开工率为90.9%，环比+0.4pct。下游方面，本周织机开工 率为58.1%，环比-0.9pct，织造企业原料库 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 固态产业化进度加快，锂电龙头旺季提前 2025 年 07 月 06 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 许钧赫 执业证书：S0600123070121 xujunhe@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 37% 42% 2024-7-5 2024-11-3 2025-3-4 2025-7-3 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《效率持续提升、GW 线逐步落地， 钙钛矿产业曙光渐近》 2025-07-02 《锂电排产旺季将临，固态技术迭代 加速 》 2025-06-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 46 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 电气设备 7107 上涨 1.99%，表现强于大盘。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is rapidly developing, with equipment manufacturers expected to benefit in the early stages of industrialization. Solid-state batteries offer high energy density and safety, with applications anticipated in various fields by 2030 [2][17] - The humanoid robot sector is advancing with the release of the DM series 17-degree-of-freedom dexterous hand, which enhances operational capabilities and is crucial for the commercialization of humanoid robots [3][26] - The forklift industry shows promising growth, with May sales reaching 123,000 units, a 12% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance from leading companies [4] Summary by Sections Solid-State Battery Equipment - Solid-state batteries are expected to transition from pilot testing to small-scale production between 2026 and 2027, with mass production anticipated by 2028-2029. The equipment value for a single GWh is projected to decrease from 500-600 million to 250 million yuan as production scales up [2][17][18] - Key equipment manufacturers include: - XianDai Intelligent, which has achieved mass production of pilot line equipment [19] - Winbond Technology, focusing on front-end equipment [19] - Mannesmann, which has completed dual-line layouts for dry and wet processes [19] Humanoid Robots - The DM series dexterous hand features advanced drive and transmission systems, enhancing its operational capabilities. The integration of sensors allows for high sensitivity and durability, crucial for the interaction between humanoid robots and their environment [3][26] - Investment recommendations in this sector include: - Zhaowei Electromechanical for dexterous hands and micro drive systems [3] - Fulei New Materials for sensors and electronic skin [3] Forklift Industry - The forklift industry saw a significant increase in sales, with domestic sales reaching 79,000 units and exports at 44,000 units in May, reflecting a strong demand for domestic manufacturers [4] - Recommended companies in this sector include: - Anhui Heli, which has strategic partnerships with major logistics companies [4] - Hangcha Group, focusing on intelligent logistics solutions [4] - Zhongli Group, investing in automation and intelligent solutions [4]