Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

科创债 ETF 及获批机构划重点 首批科创债 ETF 登场。7 月 2 日，华夏基金、南方基金、易方达基金、博时基金、广发基金、招商基金、鹏华基金、 嘉实基金、富国基金和景顺长城基金上报的首批科创债 ETF 获得证监会批文。7 月 3 日，10 只科创债 ETF 的招募说明 书、基金合同、发售公告全部于其基金公司官网披露完毕，并宣布将于 7 月 7 日进行发售。首批申报科创债 ETF 的基 金公司包括华夏基金、易方达基金、南方基金、嘉实基金、广发基金、富国基金、博时基金、鹏华基金、景顺长城基 金、招商基金等 10 家机构，主要可分为三类，一是早期布局 ETF 基金的华夏基金、易方达基金等，其 ETF 基金规模 均在 6000 亿元以上；二是需要填补债券型 ETF 发展空白的机构，如嘉实基金、景顺长城基金目前还未发行债券型 ETF 产品；三是进一步丰富 ETF 产品类型的机构，如博时基金、富国基金、广发基金等，在旗下 ETF 基金规模较大的前提 下，积极参与新类型产品的开发。 科创债 ETF 跟踪指数特征简析 首批上报的 10 只科创债 ETF，主要跟踪中证 AAA 科创债、沪 AAA 科创债、深 AAA 科创 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.7 RMB based on a PE of 23X for 2025 [4]. Core Views - The acquisition of New潮传媒 is expected to benefit the company in three main areas: enhancing coverage and meeting diverse client needs, solidifying its leading position, and improving data integration for better effectiveness in advertising [2][14]. - The partnership with Alipay to integrate advertising and payment processes is anticipated to enhance the conversion chain from advertisement to consumer action, thereby increasing market potential for elevator advertising [3][35]. - The evolving consumer trends are likely to drive incremental advertising spending in the elevator media sector, particularly as new industries and brands emerge [3][38]. Summary by Sections Acquisition of New潮传媒 - The acquisition aims to complete the coverage of advertising points and demographics, thus better satisfying diverse brand advertising needs [14]. - The company’s leading market position is expected to be further strengthened, enhancing its bargaining power [14][25]. - Data integration post-acquisition is projected to facilitate better effectiveness in advertising campaigns [28]. Partnership with Alipay - The collaboration with Alipay is designed to create a seamless link between advertisement viewing and consumer interaction, potentially resolving attribution challenges in traditional elevator media [35]. - The rapid growth of Alipay's user base and its integration into the company's advertising channels is expected to enhance market reach [36]. New Consumer Trends - Analysis indicates that changes in consumer behavior will likely stimulate new advertising investments, particularly in competitive sectors like internet services and online education [38]. - The report highlights that as competition intensifies, advertising prices for effect-driven campaigns may rise, benefiting brand advertising [38]. - New consumer companies are expected to have robust advertising budgets due to their higher profitability and ongoing industry expansion [38]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 54.5 billion, 57.6 billion, and 61.9 billion RMB, respectively, with a PE ratio of 19, 18, and 17 [4][8].

美国此次以"对等关税"作为谈判筹码，让贸易伙伴扩大对美国商品的采购、促进制造业回流、强化供应链安全，并 为美国企业营造更有利的全球经营环境。目前，印度、巴基斯坦、瑞士等国有望与美国达成贸易协议或贸易框架协议。 而欧盟、日本、韩国以及部分东盟国家仍在谈判之中，既有可能达成贸易协议，也有较大可能获得关税延期。尽管此 次"对等关税"的不确定性或许会降低，但特朗普政府仍握有 232 条款、301 条款等其他加征关税的工具，这意味着 未来的贸易政策依然充满高度不确定性。 风险提示 美国为了达成贸易协定去除不确定性，放松贸易谈判条件；非美国家为了尽快达成贸易协定，答应美国诉求；特朗普 政府对于未达成贸易协定的国家直接拉高关税。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 | 国家/地区 | 逆差（十亿美元） | 4月2日公布的对等关税 | 谈判进展 | 国家/地区 | | 逆差（十亿美元） 4月2日公布的对等关税 | 谈判进展 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国 | 295.40 | 34% | 贸易框架协议 | 老挝 | 0.76 | 48% | 尚未达成 ...

事件简介 北京时间 7 月 2 日晚间消息，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，已与越南达成贸易协议。特朗普表示，在经历数周 密集外交后，他已与越南达成贸易协议。特朗普称，根据协议，越南所有出口至美国的商品将被征收 20%的关税，而 任何转运货物将被征收 40%的关税。目前，美国尚未公布适用 40%关税的具体商品清单。目前，尚不清楚该协议是否 已最终达成，或者越南是否同意特朗普宣布的内容。最近几个月来，特朗普及其政府一直声称各国正排队与美国达成 贸易协议。然而，在 7 月 9 日为期 90 天的所谓"对等关税"暂停期结束、最高 50%的关税可能生效之前，各方几乎都 保持沉默。恢复这些历史性关税可能会动摇金融市场和企业的计划。如果特朗普 4 月份宣布的关税保持不变，那么对 越南输美商品的关税将至少升至 46%。对越南商品的关税是他宣布的最高关税之一。 行业分析 东南亚为美国轮胎的主要进口地区，虽然存在关税风险但短期美国本土产能难以实现补充供应。根据隆众资讯数据， 美国轮胎进口的主要来源国是泰国、墨西哥、加拿大、日本、越南，另外柬埔寨随着新建产能的逐步投放，出口美国 轮胎数量呈现大幅增涨态势。2024 年泰国出口美国 ...

一、存量市场概览 上周（2025.6.23-2025.6.27，下同）地方政府债市场持续扩容，截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日，地方债存量规模达到 51.79 万亿元。从地方债类型分布来看，存续的地方债中新增专项债规模占比超过 43%，再融资专项债占比为 21%。进一步 细分专项债的募集资金投向，明确资金用途的存量债中，棚户区改造、园区新区建设、乡村振兴是规模较大的投向领 域，存量余额分别为 1.97 万亿、1.57 万亿和 1.12 万亿元。其次收费公路存量余额超过 8800 亿元，水利和生态项目 存量余额也在 2000 亿以上。截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日，广东、江苏、山东地方债存量规模仍位居三甲，存量规模分别 为 3.45 万亿元、3.28 万亿元和 3.1 万亿元，其余 GDP 大省如四川、浙江、湖南、河南、河北、湖北、安徽存量规模 也位于 5 万亿以上。 二、一级供给节奏 上周地方政府债共发行 6416.44 亿元，其中，新增专项债 4222.96 亿元，再融资专项债 771.87 亿元。分募集资金用 途来看，"普通/项目收益"和"偿还地方债券"是专项债资金的主要投放领域。截至 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In economic growth, cement prices have dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years, while power plant daily consumption has been rising continuously. In terms of inflation, pork prices are fluctuating at a low level, and oil prices are oscillating [1][3] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Economic Growth: Cement Drops to the Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past Five Years 1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Continues to Rise - Power plant daily consumption is rising continuously. On July 1, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 842,000 tons, a 5.1% increase from June 24. On June 24, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 1.84 million tons, a 0.7% increase from June 13 [4][11] - The blast furnace operating rate remains stable at a high level. On June 27, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.8%, unchanged from June 20; the capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase from June 20. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 94.2%, unchanged from June 20 [4][14] - The tire operating rate fluctuates within a narrow range. On June 26, the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from June 19; the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires was 78.1%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from June 19. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declined slightly [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Cement Drops to the Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past Five Years - The property market sales continue to improve month - on - month. On July 1, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 235,000 square meters, a 103.0% increase from June, a 46.6% decrease from July last year, and a 5.7% increase from July 2023 [4][21] - The automobile market retail sales are stable and relatively strong. In June, retail sales increased by 24% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 14% year - on - year [4][23] - Steel prices vary. On July 1, compared with June 24, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices increased by 1.3%, decreased by 1.9%, increased by 1.6%, and decreased by 0.3% respectively [4][28] - Cement has dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. On July 1, the national cement price index decreased by 1.4% compared with June 24. The cement prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 3.5% and 4.3% respectively, weaker than the national average [4][29] - Glass prices fluctuate weakly. On July 1, the active glass futures contract price was 988 yuan/ton, a 2.6% decrease from June 24 [4][35] - The decline of the container shipping freight rate index has slowed down. On June 27, the CCFI index increased by 2.0% compared with June 20, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.4% [4][38] 2. Inflation: Pork Prices Fluctuate at a Low Level 2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fluctuate at a Low Level - Pork prices fluctuate at a low level. On July 1, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease from June 24 [4][42] - The agricultural product price index is declining moderately. On July 1, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with June 24 [4][47] 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Oscillate - Oil prices oscillate. On July 1, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 65.5 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 0.6% decrease and a 1.7% increase from June 24 [4][50] - Copper and aluminum prices rise. On July 1, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices increased by 2.2% and 1.4% respectively compared with June 24 [4][54] - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index has narrowed. On July 1, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 0.2% compared with June 24, and the CRB index increased by 0.4% [4][54] - Industrial product prices vary. Since July, the month - on - month prices of coking coal, coke, and hot - rolled sheets have increased, while the month - on - month prices of cement, glass, steam coal, and other steel products have decreased. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices has narrowed [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for ultra - long credit bonds has slowed down, but the index of ultra - long credit bonds has shown stable performance. The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds over 10 years has increased, while the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly cooled. The spread between active ultra - long credit bonds and Treasury bonds of similar maturities continues to narrow. Accounts with stable liability ends need to reasonably control the position of ultra - long credit bonds [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - The market for ultra - long credit bonds has slowed down. Factors such as the slight tightening of cross - quarter funds, the tilt of the stock - bond balance, and the net value fluctuations of credit bond ETFs have disturbed the sentiment of going long on ultra - long credit bonds. The yield distribution of existing ultra - long credit bonds this week is generally the same as last week, and the number of existing ultra - long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% remains at 650 [2][13] 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long industrial bonds remains high. The issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week totals 29.5 billion, basically the same as last week, and ultra - long industrial bonds are still the main new addition. However, the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly cooled this week, which is related to the average issuance interest rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds dropping to a new low and the increased volatility of the capital market near the end of the quarter [3][22] 3.3 Secondary Trading Performance - The index of ultra - long credit bonds has shown stable performance. In the latest week, the equity market has strengthened. Due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the indexes of mainstream bond varieties have weakened, but the index of credit bonds over 7 years has been relatively stable, with the weekly increase of the AA+ credit bond index over 10 years being 0.18%. - The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds over 10 years has increased. Although the preference for ultra - long credit bonds has been disturbed by the strengthening of equity assets this week, the weekly trading volume of industrial bonds from 7 - 10 years has dropped to 448, while the trading volume of industrial bonds over 10 years has increased to 176, reaching a new high in weekly trading volume since 2024. In terms of trading returns, the average weekly trading return of industrial bonds over 7 years has dropped to a new low, and the spread between 7 - 10 - year varieties and 20 - 30 - year Treasury bonds has narrowed to 25BP. - The trading of ultra - long credit bonds is still mainly at a low valuation, and the low - valuation trading margin of industrial bonds from 20 - 30 years is at the forefront. However, the proportion of TKN trades in credit bonds over 7 years has decreased significantly, indicating that investors still have concerns about the sustainability of the market for this variety. - In terms of investor structure, insurance companies and funds have continued to buy ultra - long credit bonds this week, but the intensity of funds chasing long - term credit has slowed down, and the scale of increasing the position of 5 - 10 - year credit bonds this week has dropped to 3.2 billion [4][32][42]

6 月复盘：央行呵护下资金中枢小幅下移 6 月资金面继续宽松，主要体现在以下三个方面。①DR001、DR007、DR014 运行中枢较 5 月下行 11bp、2bp、1bp。② 今年以来 DR001 一改往日围绕政策利率波动的态势，多运行在政策利率上方，不过 6 月 DR001 运行在政策利率下方的 天数比例升至 70%。③DR007 与政策利率利差"反季节性"收窄 1bp 至 18bp,而 2018 年以来 6 月此利差较 5 月多走阔。 原因在于央行态度仍然偏暖，主要体现在以下三个方面。①央行在 6 月 5 日、13 日两次开展买断式逆回购操作，且相 较于此前月末公告、本月均在开展操作前一天就发布招标公告，体现了央行呵护资金面及加强与市场交流的意图。② 央行连续 4 个月净投放 MLF，6 月继续增量续作 1180 亿。③今年 6 月央行通过逆回购、MLF、买断式逆回购合计净投 放资金规模为 2018 年以来同期次高、也远高于多数年份同期规模。 央行投放中长期资金呵护下，同业存单发行利率也震荡下行。6 月同业存单到期规模创历史新高，续发压力下存单发 行规模创历史次高。不过同业存单发行利率在 5 月中下旬上 ...

2025 年 7 月 2 日 电力设备与新能源行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业月报 证券研究报告 新能源与电力设备组 分析师：姚遥（执业 S1130512080001） yaoy＠gjzq.com.cn 锂电 6 月洞察：国内储能呈现抢装潮，固态设备迎中试交付 本月行业重要变化： 1）锂电：6 月 23 日，碳酸锂报价 5.96 万元/吨，较上月下降 7%；氢氧化锂报价 6.24 万元/吨，较上月下降 5%。 2）整车：5 月国内新能源乘用车批发销量达 122 万辆，同/环比+33%/+17%；1～5 月累计批发 498 万辆，同比+41%。 行情回顾： 2025 年 6 月以来，锂电板块表现较为活跃，超半数环节跑赢沪深 300 和上证 50 指数。三元正极板块实现领涨，涨幅 为 15%；部分板块呈现下跌态势，锂电隔膜、汽车零部件、新能源车板块下跌幅度分别为-3%、-3%、-6%。本月锂电相 关板块多数环节月度成交额继上月大幅下降后开始快速回升，主要系固态电池等板块资金交易活跃。本月多数锂电相 关板块处在 3 年历史估值分位底部，市场对锂电板块关注度回暖，未来存在进一步估值修复空间。 本月研究专题：政策加码制 ...