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永辉超市(601933):改革处于阵痛期,等待拐点到来
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-21 08:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yonghui Supermarket (601933.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a painful reform period, with expectations for a turning point to come [1] - Revenue for H1 2025 was 29.95 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 20.73%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 240 million RMB, an increase in loss of 516 million RMB compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The decline in revenue is primarily due to store closures and the adjustment of stores, with a significant number of long-term loss-making stores being shut down [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The overall sales scale has decreased, and the company is experiencing short-term gross margin decline due to supply chain reforms [2] - The gross margin for the reporting period was 20.80%, down 0.78% year-on-year [2] - The company closed 227 loss-making stores during the reporting period, incurring costs related to leasing, personnel compensation, and asset write-offs [2] Operational Strategy - The company is accelerating its supply chain reform, having signed contracts for bare procurement with 2,860 standard product suppliers and reducing the number of suppliers by approximately 50% [2] - The fresh food segment has increased the proportion of source procurement to over 60% [2] - The self-operated sales ratio in the cooked food processing segment increased from 40.2% to 78.1% [2] Store Opening and Closing - The company opened 93 adjusted stores in H1 2025, with a total of 124 adjusted stores by the end of June 2025 [3] - The total number of stores decreased to 552, with adjusted stores accounting for 22% [3] - It is expected that by the end of the year, adjusted stores will account for over 50%, potentially leading to a performance turning point [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 56.939 billion RMB, 97.996 billion RMB, and 111.198 billion RMB, with year-on-year changes of -15.74%, +72.11%, and +13.47% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -426 million RMB, 1.291 billion RMB, and 1.805 billion RMB for the same period, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of N/A for 2025, 35x for 2026, and 25x for 2027 [4]
中通快递-W(02057):单票收入同比下降,Q2净利短暂承压
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-21 06:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 118.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.3%, while adjusted net profit decreased by 26.8% to 20.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The increase in revenue was driven by a 16.5% year-on-year growth in business volume, reaching 9.85 billion packages, despite a 4.7% decline in average revenue per package due to increased subsidies and lighter package weights [2] - The company has adjusted its full-year package volume growth target to 14%-18% from the previous 20%-24% due to changes in the economic and competitive landscape [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 118.3 billion yuan, a 10.3% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit fell by 26.8% to 20.5 billion yuan [1] Operational Analysis - The revenue growth of 10.3% in Q2 was attributed to a 16.5% increase in business volume, totaling 9.85 billion packages, although the average revenue per package decreased by 4.7% [2] - The company’s market share was 19.5%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points but an increase of 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost Management - The core cost per package decreased by approximately 0.07 yuan, with transportation costs down by 0.06 yuan due to improved economies of scale and lower oil prices [3] - The gross margin fell by 8.9 percentage points year-on-year to 24.9%, and the adjusted net profit margin also decreased by 8.9 percentage points to 17.3% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9 billion yuan, 9.7 billion yuan, and 10.6 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [4]
恒瑞医药(600276):公业绩高速增长,出海成效显著
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-21 01:51
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.76 billion RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.45 billion RMB, up 29.67% year-on-year [2]. - The sales and licensing revenue from innovative drugs reached 9.56 billion RMB, accounting for 60.66% of total revenue, with significant contributions from new drugs such as Rivaroxaban and others [3]. - The company has successfully established multiple partnerships, generating substantial upfront payments, which have significantly enhanced its performance [3]. - R&D investment totaled 3.87 billion RMB in H1 2025, with a focus on over 100 innovative products undergoing more than 400 clinical trials [4]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 33.8 billion RMB, 38 billion RMB, and 42.6 billion RMB in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 9 billion RMB, 10.5 billion RMB, and 12.1 billion RMB for the same years [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 15.76 billion RMB, a 15.88% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.45 billion RMB, reflecting a 29.67% growth [2]. Operational Analysis - The innovative drug sales and licensing revenue reached 9.56 billion RMB, with new drugs like Rivaroxaban and others showing strong growth [3]. - The company has successfully executed several high-value partnerships, including a 2 billion USD deal with MSD and a 750 million USD deal with IDEAYA, contributing to its revenue growth [3]. Research and Development - The company invested 3.87 billion RMB in R&D in H1 2025, with 6 new class 1 drugs approved, indicating a fruitful R&D phase [4]. - The company is conducting over 400 clinical trials for more than 100 innovative products, showcasing its commitment to innovation [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 33.8 billion RMB, 38 billion RMB, and 42.6 billion RMB in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 9 billion RMB, 10.5 billion RMB, and 12.1 billion RMB [5].
中国西电(601179):公司点评:业绩符合预期,盈利能力持续提升
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-21 01:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant profit growth in the coming years [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.33 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing an 8.9% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 600 million RMB, up 30.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company is experiencing steady growth in domestic and international markets, with a notable 64% increase in overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - The company is enhancing its profitability through effective cost control and increased R&D investment, achieving a gross margin of 21.6% in the first half of 2025, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.07 billion RMB, a 7.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 300 million RMB, up 21.8% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 22.1%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. Market Position - The company has a market share of 7.4% in the domestic power transmission and transformation equipment sector, maintaining a leading position [3]. - The company has successfully secured significant contracts in both domestic and international markets, including major projects with state-owned enterprises and overseas clients [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.48 billion RMB, 1.98 billion RMB, and 2.44 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 40%, 34%, and 23% [5]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23, 17, and 14 times, respectively [5].
牧原股份(002714):公司业绩稳健兑现,分红彰显长期价值
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-21 01:10
公司披露 2025 年中报,25H1 实现营收 764.6 亿元,同比+34.5%; 实现归母净利润 105.3 亿元,同比+1169.7%。25Q2 实现营业收入 404.0 亿元,同比+32.1%;实现归母净利润 60.4 亿元,同比+88.2。 公司拟以未来实施分配方案时股权登记日的总股本为基数,向全 体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 9.32 元(含税),分红总额占公司 2025H1 归母净利润的 47.5%。 出栏量稳健增长,屠宰利用率大幅提升:2025H1 实现出栏 4691 万头,同比+45%;其中商品猪 3839 万头,同比+32%,销售仔猪 829.1 万头,同比+168%;种猪 22.5 万头,同比-27.9%;公司生猪出栏 量维持稳健较快增长。公司积极进行全产业链布局,下游屠宰端 市场开拓快速推进,25H1 屠宰 1142 万头,同比+111%,屠宰扭亏 指日可待。 养殖成本稳步下降,积极实现高质量发展:公司积极实现高质量 发展,截至 6 月末公司能繁母猪存栏 343.1 万头,环比减少 5.4 万头,预计年底下降至 330 万头,公司积极响应国家号召控制产 能,通过生产效率提升推动高质量 ...
盐津铺子(002847):魔芋大单品起势,利润率改善超预期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-20 15:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant growth in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.941 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.58%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 373 million RMB, up 16.70% year-on-year [2]. - The growth in revenue was driven by health-oriented product categories such as konjac, quail eggs, and jelly snacks, while other categories saw a slight decline due to a strategic focus on profitability [3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 820 million RMB, 1.01 billion RMB, and 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 23%, and 22% [5]. Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.403 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.54%, and a net profit of 195 million RMB, up 21.75% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 30.97%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.98 percentage points but an improvement of 2.51 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. - The company has optimized its sales and management expense ratios, leading to an overall improvement in profitability [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to have a revenue growth rate of 42.22% in 2023, followed by 28.89% in 2024, and a gradual decline to 18.70% by 2027 [10]. - The diluted earnings per share are expected to increase from 2.580 RMB in 2024 to 4.523 RMB in 2027 [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence and optimizing its product mix, particularly through the "Big Demon King" brand, which is expected to drive further revenue growth [4]. - The strategic reduction of low-margin products is aimed at improving overall profitability and reducing accounts receivable risks [3].
香港交易所(00388):成交额支撑单季利润再创新高
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-20 15:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Hong Kong Exchanges achieved record high quarterly profits supported by trading volume, with a 33% year-on-year increase in revenue to HKD 14.076 billion and a 39% increase in net profit to HKD 8.519 billion for the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The trading fee income from the stock market saw a significant increase of 112% to HKD 2.556 billion, driven by a 122% year-on-year growth in average daily trading volume [2] - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, projecting HKD 17 billion, HKD 18 billion, and HKD 19.6 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 13.48, HKD 14.22, and HKD 15.43 [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 1H25, the revenue breakdown by business lines showed significant growth rates: cash market at 62%, derivatives at 15%, commodities at 8%, data and connectivity at 5%, and company projects at 28% [1] - The trading and transaction system usage fees increased by 49%, while listing fees rose by 30% due to a recovery in the IPO market [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 26% for 2025, followed by 6% and 7% in subsequent years, with net profit growth rates of 31%, 6%, and 9% respectively [3][7] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 33, 31, and 29 times [3]
平高电气(600312):在手订单饱满,国际业务转型见成效
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-20 15:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.7 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, with a net profit of 660 million RMB, up 24.6% year-on-year [2]. - The high-voltage segment remains a leader in the industry, with a revenue of 3.26 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year growth and a gross margin of 29.8%, up 2.2 percentage points [3]. - The company has a strong order reserve, with a contract liability of 1.72 billion RMB, a 40% increase year-on-year, and inventory of 2.24 billion RMB, indicating robust demand in the second half of the year [4]. - The distribution network and operation maintenance businesses showed steady growth, with revenues of 1.6 billion RMB and 630 million RMB, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The international business is expanding rapidly, with significant contracts in Saudi Arabia and Mexico, leading to a revenue increase of 284.5% year-on-year in the overseas market [5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.39 billion RMB, 14.61 billion RMB, and 16.34 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.32 billion RMB, 1.52 billion RMB, and 1.76 billion RMB [6][10].
2025年8月第3周:债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告:集运运价指数跌势放缓
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-20 14:46
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Economic growth shows a slowdown in the decline of container shipping freight rate indices, with power plant daily consumption falling from a high level, and demand - side indicators showing mixed trends [1][4]. - Inflation presents a situation where pork prices are slowly falling at a low level, and there are fluctuations in CPI and PPI components [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Slowdown in the Decline of Container Shipping Freight Rate Indices 1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Falls from a High Level - Power plant daily consumption has declined. On August 19, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 912,000 tons, a 4.5% drop from August 12. On August 14, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.369 million tons, a 5.3% drop from August 6 [4][11]. - Blast furnace operating rates fluctuated slightly. On August 15, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from August 8, while the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, up 0.2 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 92.6% [4][17]. - Tire operating rates were weakly stable. On August 14, the operating rate of truck - used all - steel tires was 63.1%, up 2.1 percentage points from August 7, and that of car - used semi - steel tires was 72.1%, down 2.3 percentage points [4][19]. 1.2 Demand: Slowdown in the Decline of Container Shipping Freight Rate Indices - The decline in the month - on - month sales of new homes in 30 cities slowed down. From August 1 to 19, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 179,000 square meters, down 6.1% from July, 15.0% from August last year, and 32.4% from August 2023 [4][24]. - The retail sales of the auto market are gradually picking up. In August, retail sales increased by 2% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 20% year - on - year [4][27]. - Steel prices generally fell. On August 19, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices decreased by 3.5%, 3.1%, 2.8%, and 0.2% respectively compared to August 12 [4][32]. - Cement prices generally rebounded. On August 19, the national cement price index rose 1.4% from August 12, with prices in East China and the Yangtze River region rising 4.4% and 4.3% respectively [4][33]. - Glass prices stopped falling and rebounded. On August 19, the active glass futures contract price was 1,215 yuan/ton, up 13.9% from August 12 [4][37]. - The decline of container shipping freight rate indices slowed down. On August 15, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% from August 8, and the SCFI index decreased by 2.0% [4][40]. 2. Inflation: Slow Fall of Pork Prices at a Low Level 2.1 CPI: Slow Fall of Pork Prices at a Low Level - Pork prices are slowly falling at a low level. On August 19, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 0.2% drop from August 12 [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index is slowly rising. On August 19, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.8% from August 12, with different fluctuations in various varieties [4][51]. 2.2 PPI: Weak Fluctuation of Oil Prices - Oil prices are weakly fluctuating. On August 19, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $67.6 and $62.4 per barrel respectively, down 0.01% and 1.3% from August 12 [4][54]. - Copper and aluminum prices declined. On August 19, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices decreased by 0.2% and 1.4% respectively compared to August 12 [4][58]. - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index narrowed. On August 19, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.5% from August 12, and the CRB index decreased by 0.3% from August 11 [4][58].
超长信用债继续降温
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-20 14:20
存量市场特征 超长信用债收益回撤。本周(2025.8.11-2025.8.15,下同)市场风险偏好再度切换,债市行情反转,超长信用债亦被 波及。与上周相比,存量超长信用债收益率出现回撤,2.2%-2.3%收益率的超长信用债只数明显增长。 一级发行情况 超长信用新债认购续升。本周超长信用新债发行规模合计 159.7 亿,供给量基本持平上周。在新债发行利率方面,本 周超长城投新债发行利率均值上行至 2.6%,超长产业新债票面则在 2.3%附近徘徊。在近期波动率偏高的债市环境中, 超长信用新债一级定价与现券市场略有偏离,这也或是近两周该品种新债认购热度持续上升的原因。 二级成交表现 长债指数普跌。债市又一轮急跌,本周 10 年以上国债指数跌幅高达 1.64%,10 年以上 AA+信用债指数跌幅虽小于利率 长债,但绝对值也超过 0.5%。 超长信用债成交情绪萎靡。在信用债资产中,超长信用债跌势难控,品种流动性明显弱化,本周 10 年以上产业债成 交笔数已下降至不足 40 笔,最为活跃的 7-10 年产业债,成交量相比 7 月中旬也缩减近半。成交收益方面,7-10 年信 用长债收益回调幅度大于 6bp,10 年以上普信 ...