Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][6]. Core Views - The launch of the Li Auto i8 marks the beginning of a new cycle for pure electric vehicles, with a competitive pricing strategy that is expected to enhance market positioning [2][6]. - The company is projected to achieve steady monthly sales of 5,000 to 7,000 units for the i8, supported by its strong product features and charging infrastructure [2][6]. - The report anticipates a significant growth in revenue and net profit in the coming years, despite a slight decline in 2025 due to internal competition from the L8 model [2][6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 144,460 million CNY - 2025E: 143,049 million CNY - 2026E: 175,237 million CNY - 2027E: 207,067 million CNY - Year-on-Year Growth: 16.6% in 2024, -1.0% in 2025, 22.5% in 2026, 18.2% in 2027 [2][7]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 8,032 million CNY - 2025E: 7,156 million CNY - 2026E: 9,921 million CNY - 2027E: 12,879 million CNY - Year-on-Year Growth: -31.4% in 2024, -10.9% in 2025, 38.6% in 2026, 29.8% in 2027 [2][7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 3.79 CNY - 2025: 3.34 CNY - 2026: 4.63 CNY - 2027: 6.02 CNY [2][7]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 25.1 in 2024, 28.5 in 2025, 20.5 in 2026, 15.8 in 2027 [2][7]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 2.8 in 2024, 2.6 in 2025, 2.3 in 2026, 2.0 in 2027 [2][7]. Market Positioning - The i8 is positioned in the mid-to-large SUV segment, targeting families and consumers preferring electric vehicles, with a market size of approximately 130,000 units per year [2][6]. - Key competitors include NIO ES6, Li Auto L8, and Mercedes-Benz GLC, with the i8 expected to leverage its unique features to capture market share [2][6]. Future Catalysts - Anticipated catalysts for growth include seasonal sales increases in Q4, rising acceptance of the i8 and fast-charging solutions, and enhancements in AI capabilities with the VLA driver model [2][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, extreme weather affected the release of downstream demand, causing a decline in new orders and production, with demand sub - items returning to the contraction zone. However, there were also increasing positive factors such as rising price indicators and improved macro - confidence. For the bond market, attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between data verification and risk - preference boosting, and the transmission effect of "strong expectations" to reality after August [4][10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: Weather Factors Disturb, and the Boom Declines Temporarily 3.1.1 Supply and Demand: Demand Declines More Than Production - Production slowed down, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 pct to 50.5%. Factors included the weakening of the June rush - to - deliver effect, extreme high - temperature weather affecting demand and restocking, and industry "anti - involution" measures [2][16]. - New orders fell into the contraction zone, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 pct to 49.4%. The gap between new orders and new export orders narrowed to 2.3 pct, and domestic demand orders slowed more than export orders due to extreme weather [2][19]. 3.1.2 Foreign Trade: The Marginal Effect of "Rushing to Export" Weakens - New export orders declined month - on - month by 0.6 pct to 47.1%, and imports remained flat at 47.8%. The concentrated release of previous back - logged export orders in May - June weakened in July [2][22]. 3.1.3 Price: The Expectation of "Anti - Involution" and Rising Commodity Prices Lead to Accelerated Price Repair - The purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price increased by 3.1 pct and 2.1 pct month - on - month to 51.5% and 48.3% respectively. The increase was larger than in June, and it was expected that the PPI in July would improve marginally [2][27]. 3.1.4 Inventory: The De - stocking Rhythm Accelerates Relatively - Raw material inventory decreased by 0.3 pct month - on - month to 47.7%, and finished - product inventory decreased by 0.7%. Production restocking slowed down, and enterprises de - stocked faster [2][30]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI: Construction Slows Down, and Service Consumption Differentiates Widely - In July, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 pct. The service industry PMI decreased by 0.1 pct to 50.0%, and the construction industry PMI decreased by 2.2 pct to 50.6%. - The construction industry PMI declined due to the influence of the rainy season, with housing construction activities falling below the boom - bust line and civil engineering construction remaining above 55%. After the rainy season, there may be a rush - to - work effect, and the PMI is expected to recover. - The service industry PMI dropped to the boom - bust line. Retail and transportation industries were boosted by summer consumption, while the accommodation and catering industries had relatively weak demand growth [3][37].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a financial product tracking report from July 12 to July 25, 2025, covering bank wealth - management products, funds, and insurance products [1][7] - It also provides industry basic data, relative index performance, and related research report references [4][5][7] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - In the bank wealth - management product market, the number of new products remained stable, with a 2.55% average performance benchmark. Fixed - income products dominated, and wealth - management companies had a high share [1][10] - The fund market witnessed a 62.83% increase in the total issuance scale, with stock - type funds becoming the new dominant type, indicating a shift in investors' risk preference [7] - The insurance product market saw a 50% reduction in new products, and there was a trend of transformation from traditional to dividend - type products due to interest rate policy adjustments [7][31] Group 4: Bank Wealth - Management Products New - Issue Overall Situation - From July 12 to July 25, 2025, 1290 new wealth - management products were issued, with an average performance benchmark of 2.55%. Fixed - income products accounted for 97.13%, and wealth - management companies issued 962 products, accounting for 74.57% [1][10] New - Issue Market Trend Summary - Product type feature: Fixed - income products, especially "fixed - income +", were popular, reflecting investors' conservative risk preference [16] - Term selection feature: Products with a 1 - 3 - year term had the highest proportion. Longer - term products allowed investors to lock in higher yields and helped institutions manage liquidity [19] Representative Product Analysis - Huaxia Wealth - Management Fixed - Income Enhanced Closed - end Wealth - Management Product No. 181: A "fixed - income +" product with a 3.40% - 5.40% performance benchmark, suitable for risk - averse investors seeking returns [20] - Puyin Wealth - Management Yizhen Closed - end Wealth - Management Product No. 18: A private "fixed - income +" product for high - net - worth individuals, with a 2.40% - 4.20% performance benchmark [21] Group 5: Fund Products New - Issue Overall Situation - From July 12 to July 25, 2025, 69 new public funds were established, with a total issuance scale of 4.9089 billion shares, a 62.83% increase from the previous period. Stock - type funds became the dominant type [7][22] New - Issue Rule Summary - Stock - type funds replaced bond - type funds as the dominant type, indicating an increase in market risk preference driven by factors such as policy support and a bullish stock market [24] - New - issue funds focused on high - growth sectors like "artificial intelligence", "STAR Market", and "Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology" [25][26] Representative Product Analysis - Huatai - PineBridge Stable Benefit 6 - Month Holding A (024582.OF): A hybrid bond - type primary fund with a 3.741 - billion - share issuance scale, using a "fixed - income +" strategy [27] - Huabao CSI 300 Free Cash Flow Linked A (024367.OF): A passive index fund tracking the CSI 300 Free Cash Flow Index, with a 2.697 - billion - share issuance scale [27] Group 6: Insurance Products Overall New - Issue Situation - From July 12 to July 25, 2025, 18 new insurance products were issued, a 50% decrease from the previous period. There was a transformation from traditional to dividend - type products [7][31] Life Insurance - Traditional life insurance new - issue decreased by 62.50%, while dividend - type life insurance increased by 16.67% [32] Annuity Insurance - The number of new annuity insurance products dropped from 19 to 6, with significant decreases in traditional and dividend - type products [33] Policy Impact - On July 25, the China Insurance Industry Association adjusted the expected interest rate, which led to the suspension of non - compliant products and promoted the development of dividend - type products [7][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][17]. Core Insights - The company's H1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 991 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 117 million yuan, up 14.18% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights the foundation for long-term growth established by new technologies and industries, particularly in the integrated circuit sector, which saw a revenue increase of 21.01% year-on-year [8]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in thermal vacuum testing equipment and is actively exploring opportunities in commercial aerospace and integrated circuits, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [8]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 2.271 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 308 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 34.2% [4][9]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a steady increase in revenue and net profit through 2027, with projected revenues of 2.601 billion yuan and 2.984 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.45 yuan in 2024 to 0.91 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability potential [4][9]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of July 30, 2025, was 16.50 yuan, with a target price set at 24.22 yuan, suggesting significant upside potential [4][5]. - The report notes a decline in gross margin to 41.88% in H1 2025, attributed to increased capacity investments, but net profit margin improved to 13.51% due to reduced expense ratios [8].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - In July, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, citing a "tight balance" in the labor market and potential inflation risks from high tariffs[3][6] - The Fed's assessment of economic uncertainty focuses on rising inflation impacting real GDP growth rather than nominal output or employment issues[3][6] - The threshold for rate cuts remains high, with no clear indication of a September rate cut despite market speculation[3][10] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation risks are primarily driven by tariffs, which are seen as a short-term shock, but the long-term impact on the economy requires further evaluation[3][9] - The Fed acknowledges that the current inflationary pressures may just be the beginning of the effects from tariffs on goods inflation[3][9] - The labor market remains solid, with no signs of weakness, but there are downside risks to economic growth[3][11] Group 3: Market Implications - Improved risk appetite and economic outlook may continue to support U.S. equities and long-term Treasury yields, with the dollar index potentially returning to the 100 mark[3][12] - Emerging market assets, excluding China, may face valuation risks due to high tariffs and external demand pressures, despite some trade agreements[3][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the convertible bond market declined with reduced trading volume, and the valuation increased compared to the previous day [1]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous day, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.77%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.62%, the SSE 50 Index rose by 0.38%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.82% [1]. - The large - cap value style was relatively dominant in the market. The large - cap growth index decreased by 0.48%, the large - cap value index rose by 0.84%, the mid - cap growth index decreased by 0.17%, the mid - cap value index rose by 0.51%, the small - cap growth index decreased by 0.76%, and the small - cap value index decreased by 0.27% [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 76.134 billion yuan, a 2.88% decrease compared to the previous day; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1.870976 trillion yuan, a 2.28% increase compared to the previous day; the net out - flow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 52.9 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 2.86bp to 1.72% [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous day, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.77%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.62%, the SSE 50 Index rose by 0.38%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.82% [1]. - Market style: The large - cap value style was relatively dominant. The large - cap growth index decreased by 0.48%, the large - cap value index rose by 0.84%, the mid - cap growth index decreased by 0.17%, the mid - cap value index rose by 0.51%, the small - cap growth index decreased by 0.76%, and the small - cap value index decreased by 0.27% [1]. - Capital performance: The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 76.134 billion yuan, a 2.88% decrease compared to the previous day; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1.870976 trillion yuan, a 2.28% increase compared to the previous day; the net out - flow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 52.9 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 2.86bp to 1.72% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The central price of convertible bonds decreased, and the proportion of high - price bonds remained the same. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 126.79 yuan, a 0.05% decrease compared to the previous day. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 167.54 yuan, a 0.24% decrease; the closing price of debt - biased convertible bonds was 117.04 yuan, a 0.22% increase; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 124.96 yuan, a 0.08% increase [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 43.84%, remaining the same as the previous day; the range with the largest change in proportion was 110 - 120 (including 120), with a proportion of 20.95%, a 0.65pct decrease compared to the previous day; there were 2 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 128.43 yuan, a 0.19% increase compared to the previous day [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation increased. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 27.74%, a 0.18pct increase compared to the previous day; the overall weighted par value was 96.98 yuan, a 0.30% decrease compared to the previous day. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 6.82%, a 0.29pct increase; the premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 85.62%, a 0.25pct increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 22.17%, a 0.05pct increase [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined, with 16 industries falling. The top three industries with the largest declines were power equipment (-2.22%), computer (-1.59%), and automobile (-1.27%); the top three industries with the largest increases were steel (+2.05%), petroleum and petrochemical (+1.84%), and media (+1.00%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 18 industries declined. The top three industries with the largest declines were communication (-2.25%), automobile (-1.07%), and household appliances (-0.96%); the top three industries with the largest increases were building materials (+0.82%), textile and apparel (+0.79%), and building decoration (+0.42%) [3]. - Closing price: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.04%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.57%, the technology sector decreased by 0.81%, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.04%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.18% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector increased by 0.063pct, the manufacturing sector increased by 1.1pct, the technology sector increased by 0.87pct, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.68pct, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.14pct [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.14%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 1.22%, the technology sector decreased by 1.37%, the large - consumption sector remained unchanged, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.71% [3]. - Pure - debt premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.062pct, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.72pct, the technology sector decreased by 1.2pct, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.054pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.22pct [4]. Industry Rotation - The leading rising industries were steel, petroleum and petrochemical, and media. The daily increase of steel was 2.05%, petroleum and petrochemical was 1.84%, and media was 1.00%. In the convertible bond market, the corresponding daily changes were -0.10%, -0.06%, and -0.66% respectively [54].

证 券 研 究 报 告 牛市定心丸，稳策即利好 ——730政治局会议点评 2025年7月30日 证券分析师：姚 佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 宏观政策持续发力、适时加力 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 政治局会议 | 2025年7月政治局会议 | 2025年4月政治局会议 | 2024年12月经济工作会议 | 2024年12月政治局会议 | 2024年9月政治局会议 | 2024年7月政治局会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济 | | 一年来的发展历程很不平凡，成绩令人鼓舞，特别是9 | | | | | | 指标表现良好，新质生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深 | 经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创金融|红利资产月报（2025 年 7 月） 7 月银行板块回调，业绩快报传递积极信号 二季度存贷增速普遍下降，与社融信贷增速趋势较为一致。1）资产端，由于 一季度"开门红"及降息预期下银行抢抓投放，二季信贷需求总体较弱。除了 齐鲁银行信贷增速略有上升外，其余三家信贷投放均有降速。不过整体而言三 家城商行的信贷投放仍然保持双位数强劲增长，而作为农商行的常熟银行信贷 增速则弱于总资产增速，或由于个人经营贷需求仍偏弱。1H25 常熟/杭州/宁波 / 齐鲁银行的贷款增速分别较 1Q25 -0.9pct/-2.3pct/-1.7pct/+1.1pct 至 5.2%/12%/18.7%/13.7%。2）负债端，除了常熟银行存款增速略有上升外，其 余三家存款增速均有所下降，降幅均高于贷款。1H25 常熟/杭州/宁波/齐鲁银 行 的 存 款 增 速 分 别 较 1Q25 +0.9pct/-4.9pct/-7.2pct/-1.8pct 至 9.9%/16.2%/12.7%/13.1%。 资产质量保持稳定，核充率有所提升。除了齐鲁银行不良率有明显改善外（环 比下降 8bp 至 1.09%），其余三家不 ...

Group 1 - The overall change in public fund holdings shows an increase in communication and banking sectors, while a decrease in food and beverage, and automotive sectors [1][8] - In Q2 2025, public funds increased their holdings in the top five industries: communication (up 2.5 percentage points), banking (up 1.2 percentage points), military industry (up 1.0 percentage points), non-banking financials (up 0.8 percentage points), and media (up 0.6 percentage points) [1][8] - The top five industries with decreased holdings were food and beverage (down 2.1 percentage points), automotive (down 1.5 percentage points), new energy (down 1.2 percentage points), home appliances (down 0.9 percentage points), and machinery (down 0.8 percentage points) [1][8] Group 2 - The report categorizes funds into four types: increasing, decreasing, adjusting, and extreme styles, highlighting distinct investment behaviors and strategies [7][13] - Increasing funds showed a preference for a "barbell" strategy, adding to components, communication devices, and chemical pharmaceuticals while reducing industrial metals, semiconductors, and automotive parts [17][18] - Decreasing funds focused on strengthening and balancing growth styles, increasing holdings in communication devices, communication services, and digital media while reducing investments in liquor, passenger vehicles, and automotive parts [17][18] Group 3 - Adjusting funds emphasized a growth-oriented value style, increasing investments in communication devices, biopharmaceuticals, and IT services while reducing holdings in semiconductors, consumer electronics, and social media [17][18] - Extreme style funds maintained their core competencies, increasing holdings in new energy and automotive parts while reducing passenger vehicles and state-owned banks [17][18] - The consensus for selling included sectors like passenger vehicles, social media, semiconductors, and industrial metals, while buying consensus included communication devices, banking shares, and chemical pharmaceuticals [17][18]

- The report identifies three types of fundamental stock selection strategies: PB-ROE, GARP, and PEAD, which are constructed using valuation, growth, quality, and surprise factors[2][23][86] - PB-ROE strategy combines valuation (BP) and quality (ROE) factors, aiming to select high ROE and low PB stocks. Stocks are ranked by BP and ROE, with the top 20% forming the intersection portfolio. Transaction costs are set at 0.1% for buying and 0.3% for selling, and trades are executed at the next day's opening price[24][23][49] - GARP strategy integrates valuation (EP) and growth (net profit growth rate) factors, targeting stocks with reasonable prices and growth potential. Stocks are ranked by EP and quarterly net profit growth rate, with the top 20% forming the intersection portfolio. Similar transaction costs and execution rules apply[53][23][54] - PEAD strategy focuses on surprise factors, using SUE (net profit deviation from historical average) and JOR (price movement around earnings announcement) to capture post-earnings announcement drift. Stocks are ranked by SUE and JOR, with the top 10% forming the intersection portfolio. Transaction costs and execution rules are consistent with other strategies[86][23][84] - PB-ROE strategy's annualized return is 15.71%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.73 and maximum drawdown of 37.63%. Market reaction delay contributes 2.3% of excess return over 12 trading days, while insufficient reaction adds 0.4% over 20 trading days[49][116][51] - GARP strategy achieves an annualized return of 21.22%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.83 and maximum drawdown of 42.85%. Market reaction delay contributes 3% of excess return over 12 trading days, while insufficient reaction is negligible at -0.01%[54][116][70] - PEAD strategy delivers an annualized return of 25.00%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.91 and maximum drawdown of 45.69%. Market reaction delay contributes 9% of excess return over 8 trading days, while insufficient reaction adds 1% over 20 trading days[87][116][103] - When delaying portfolio rebalancing by one month, PB-ROE strategy's annualized return drops to 11.97%, GARP strategy to 12.85%, and PEAD strategy to 15.87%. The reduction in annualized return is 3.66%, 8.37%, and 9.13%, respectively[49][77][103] - The average portfolio capacity is 1.28 billion for PB-ROE, 1.89 billion for GARP, and 1.01 billion for PEAD. The average number of holdings is 77, 173, and 70, respectively[41][69][100]