Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [51]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant rise of the eVTOL company Archer, which saw a weekly increase of 50%, reaching a market capitalization of $7.3 billion (approximately 52.6 billion RMB) [4][5]. - Archer's operational highlights include successful overseas expansion, partnerships with major airlines, and being selected as the official air taxi provider for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, indicating a rapid acceleration in commercialization [7][10]. - Financially, Archer reported a narrowed loss of $93 million in Q1, with a substantial cash reserve of $1 billion (approximately 7.2 billion RMB), showcasing strong liquidity [20][24]. Industry Overview - The report provides an overview of the transportation industry, noting a total of 122 listed companies with a total market value of 324.96 billion RMB and a circulating market value of 278.26 billion RMB [1]. - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index experienced a weekly decline of 1.1% but has increased by 1.7% year-to-date, contrasting with the performance of the CSI 300 Index, which has decreased by 1.2% [29][31]. Company-Specific Developments - Archer's strategic partnerships include collaboration with United Airlines to launch air taxi services in New York, aiming to reduce travel time significantly [7][8]. - The company has also secured a $500 million order from Soracle Corporation in Japan for up to 100 Midnight aircraft, indicating strong international demand [16][17]. - Archer's eVTOL aircraft, Midnight, is designed to travel at speeds of 150 mph and can carry up to four passengers, highlighting its potential for urban air mobility [11]. Financial Performance - Archer's Q1 EPS loss has significantly narrowed to $0.17 from $0.36 in the previous quarter, reflecting improved operational efficiency [20]. - The company anticipates an adjusted EBITDA loss of $100-120 million for Q2, indicating ongoing investment in growth despite current losses [21]. Market Insights - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, suggesting that both Chinese and American companies are well-positioned in the eVTOL market, with the potential for significant market share in the future [28]. - The FAA's new regulations for vertical takeoff and landing aircraft are expected to pave the way for commercial operations, enhancing the market outlook for eVTOL companies [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [4][14]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 1.376 billion yuan, down 35.68% year-on-year, and a net profit of 11 million yuan, down 95.49% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with revenue of 163 million yuan, down 53.31% year-on-year, and a net loss of 54 million yuan [1][3]. - The integrated stove industry is under pressure due to a downturn in the real estate market, which has led to a decrease in new home renovation demand. The company is actively exploring the stock housing market and aims to establish over 200 demonstration stores for kitchen renovations by 2025 [7][8]. - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on diversifying its product offerings, including the development of water-washing products and other kitchen appliances, to create new growth opportunities [7][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have total revenue of 1.376 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -35.7%. The net profit is expected to be 11 million yuan, reflecting a -95.5% year-on-year growth rate. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.23 yuan, with a projected increase to 0.27 yuan in 2026 and 0.34 yuan in 2027 [3][8]. - The company's gross margin for the first quarter of 2025 was 40.18%, showing a slight improvement from the previous quarter despite a year-on-year decline. The report highlights a significant increase in financial expenses due to interest costs from bond issuance [7][8]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 5.296 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 3.82 billion yuan. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 475 in 2024 to 38 by 2027 [4][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 67.32 CNY, based on expected growth in the energy storage business and new business developments [5][9]. Core Views - The energy storage business is gradually ramping up, and the company's expansion into new business areas is promising. The traditional lithium battery business is under pressure, but the energy storage segment is expected to improve profitability as it develops [5][9]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.699 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 113.7%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was only 31 million CNY, down 91% year-on-year [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's multi-track layout, which is expected to inject new growth momentum. This includes expansion into the semiconductor industry and a strategic partnership in the robotics sector [9][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to generate total revenues of 2.430 billion CNY in 2025, 3.020 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.634 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 43.0%, 24.3%, and 20.3% respectively [4][10]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise to 161 million CNY in 2025, 247 million CNY in 2026, and 321 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 425.9%, 52.8%, and 30.3% respectively [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to increase from 0.21 CNY in 2024 to 1.12 CNY in 2025, 1.71 CNY in 2026, and 2.23 CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 270 in 2024 to 51 in 2025, 34 in 2026, and 26 in 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [4][10].

证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20250512-20250518） 推荐（维持） 当前五大行 A 股股息率处于何种水平？ 银行 2025 年 05 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 2015-2025 年，大致可以划分为四个阶段：1）2Q15-1Q16，五大行季度平均股 息率震荡上行，平均股息率从 4.4%升至 5.3%；2）2Q16-1Q18，五大行季度平 均股息率震荡下行，从 5.3%降至 4.0%；3）2Q18-1Q23，五大行季度平均股息 率开启较长时间的震荡上行，从 4.4%升至 7.2%；4）2Q23-2Q25，五大行季度 平均股息率呈现较快下行趋势，从 6.3%降至 4.4%。当前水平处于 2015 年以 来的较低分位，与 2Q15 和 2Q18 水平相当。 与历史上当期的国债收益率相比，除了 1Q18 跑输 10 年期国债收益率之外， 其余时间五大行季度平均股息率均高于 10 年期国债收益率。其中 1Q20-2Q21， 高于 10 年期国债收益率 2pct；3Q21-2Q24，高于 10 年期国债收益率 3-4pct。 25 年以来仍然高于 10 年期国债收益率 2pct。 24 年所有 A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the home appliance industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks decreased in Q1 2025, primarily due to a temporary policy gap and consumer concerns leading to preemptive consumption [7][15] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to expand, alleviating market concerns and boosting domestic demand for home appliances [7][15] - Leading home appliance companies are expanding into emerging markets, which is anticipated to steadily increase export revenues [7][15] - The report highlights the high dividend yield and stable operations of leading companies, indicating strong investment value in home appliance stocks [7][15] Summary by Sections Section 1: Fund Holdings in Home Appliances - The proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliance stocks was 5.51% in Q1 2025, down by 0.09 percentage points from the previous quarter [15] - The home appliance sector was over-allocated by 2.99%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points [15] Section 2: Sector Allocation Changes - Funds increased their allocation to the two-wheeler and black appliance sectors, with increases of 0.39 percentage points and 0.04 percentage points, respectively [20] - Conversely, the white appliance and small appliance sectors saw reductions in allocation, with decreases of 0.53 percentage points and 0.01 percentage points [20] Section 3: Key Stocks in Focus - Funds increased their holdings in Ninebot, Yadea, Chunfeng Power, and Hisense Visual, with increases of 0.26 percentage points, 0.04 percentage points, 0.04 percentage points, and 0.05 percentage points, respectively [67][70] - The report suggests that the "old-for-new" policy will continue to stimulate demand and improve product structure in the two-wheeler sector [70] - In the white appliance sector, the report notes a decline in fund holdings for Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, with decreases of 0.30 percentage points, 0.20 percentage points, and 0.04 percentage points, respectively [68][69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) [1] Core Insights - Tencent's 1Q25 financial results exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 180 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 13%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 3% [1][8] - The NON-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 61.3 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 22%, also exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 3% [1][8] - The target price range is set between 545.69 and 606.33 HKD, with the current price at 508.00 HKD [1] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue structure for 1Q25 is as follows: - Gaming: 59.5 billion CNY (33% of total revenue), YOY +24% - Financial Technology and Enterprise Services: 54.9 billion CNY (31% of total revenue), YOY +5% - Social Networks: 32.6 billion CNY (18% of total revenue), YOY +7% - Marketing Services: 31.9 billion CNY (18% of total revenue), YOY +20% [15][26] Business Performance - The gaming segment continues to show strong performance, with both domestic and international markets exceeding expectations. Domestic gaming revenue was 42.9 billion CNY, YOY +24%, while international gaming revenue was 16.6 billion CNY, YOY +23% [20][18] - The social network segment's revenue growth was driven by mobile games, TME membership growth, and mini-game revenue sharing [26] - Marketing services revenue exceeded expectations due to increased user engagement and AI-driven advertising solutions, reaching 31.9 billion CNY, YOY +20% [30] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 728.6 billion CNY, 784.5 billion CNY, and 835.6 billion CNY respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 10%, 8%, and 7% [5] - The NON-IFRS net profit projections for the same period are 256.0 billion CNY, 288.6 billion CNY, and 313.1 billion CNY, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 13%, and 9% [5] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (CAPEX) for the quarter reached 23.0 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 60%, representing 13% of total revenue [32]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Volume Model - **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market trends based on trading volume dynamics to provide short-term signals [12][65] - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes trading volume data to determine whether the market is in a neutral, bullish, or bearish state. Specific formulas or parameters are not disclosed in the report [12][65] - **Evaluation**: The model currently provides a neutral signal for the short term, indicating no strong directional bias [12][65] 2. Model Name: Low Volatility Model - **Construction Idea**: This model assesses market conditions by analyzing the volatility of stock prices over a short-term horizon [12][65] - **Construction Process**: The model calculates the volatility of stock prices and categorizes the market state as neutral, bullish, or bearish. Detailed formulas are not provided [12][65] - **Evaluation**: The model is currently neutral, suggesting a lack of significant market movement [12][65] 3. Model Name: Institutional Feature Model (LHB) - **Construction Idea**: This model uses institutional trading data from the "Dragon and Tiger List" (龙虎榜) to predict short-term market trends [12][65] - **Construction Process**: The model aggregates institutional trading activity and evaluates its impact on market direction. Specific formulas are not disclosed [12][65] - **Evaluation**: The model is neutral, indicating no clear institutional bias in the market [12][65] 4. Model Name: Feature Volume Model - **Construction Idea**: This model combines trading volume features to assess short-term market trends [12][65] - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes specific volume-related features to determine market sentiment. Detailed formulas are not provided [12][65] - **Evaluation**: The model is bearish, suggesting a negative outlook for the short term [12][65] 5. Model Name: Smart HS300 Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses intelligent algorithms to predict short-term trends for the CSI 300 Index [12][65] - **Construction Process**: The model applies machine learning or algorithmic techniques to analyze market data. Specific methodologies are not disclosed [12][65] - **Evaluation**: The model is bearish, indicating a negative outlook for the CSI 300 Index [12][65] 6. Model Name: Smart CSI500 Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses intelligent algorithms to predict short-term trends for the CSI 500 Index [12][65] - **Construction Process**: Similar to the Smart HS300 Model, this model applies algorithmic techniques to analyze market data. Specific methodologies are not disclosed [12][65] - **Evaluation**: The model is bullish, indicating a positive outlook for the CSI 500 Index [12][65] 7. Model Name: Limit-Up/Down Model - **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates mid-term market trends based on the frequency of limit-up and limit-down events [13][66] - **Construction Process**: The model tracks the occurrence of daily limit-up and limit-down events to assess market sentiment. Specific formulas are not disclosed [13][66] - **Evaluation**: The model is neutral, indicating no strong mid-term market bias [13][66] 8. Model Name: Calendar Effect Model - **Construction Idea**: This model analyzes seasonal or calendar-based patterns to predict mid-term market trends [13][66] - **Construction Process**: The model evaluates historical market performance during specific calendar periods. Detailed methodologies are not provided [13][66] - **Evaluation**: The model is neutral, suggesting no significant calendar-based market trends [13][66] 9. Model Name: Long-Term Momentum Model - **Construction Idea**: This model assesses long-term market trends based on momentum indicators [14][67] - **Construction Process**: The model calculates momentum metrics for broad-based indices to determine long-term market direction. Specific formulas are not disclosed [14][67] - **Evaluation**: The model is neutral for all broad-based indices, indicating no strong long-term market trends [14][67] 10. Model Name: A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Construction Idea**: This composite model integrates multiple short, mid, and long-term signals to provide an overall market outlook [15][68] - **Construction Process**: The model combines signals from various sub-models (e.g., volume, volatility, institutional activity) to generate a comprehensive market view. Specific integration methods are not disclosed [15][68] - **Evaluation**: The model is bearish, indicating an overall negative outlook for the A-share market [15][68] 11. Model Name: A-Share Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model - **Construction Idea**: This composite model focuses on the Guozheng 2000 Index, integrating multiple signals to provide an overall market outlook [15][68] - **Construction Process**: Similar to the V3 Model, this model aggregates signals from various sub-models. Specific methodologies are not disclosed [15][68] - **Evaluation**: The model is bearish, indicating a negative outlook for the Guozheng 2000 Index [15][68] 12. Model Name: HK Stock Turnover-to-Volatility Model - **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates mid-term trends in the Hong Kong market by analyzing the ratio of turnover to volatility [16][69] - **Construction Process**: The model calculates the turnover-to-volatility ratio to assess market sentiment. Specific formulas are not disclosed [16][69] - **Evaluation**: The model is bearish, suggesting a negative outlook for the Hong Kong market [16][69] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Volume Model - **Signal**: Neutral [12][65] 2. Low Volatility Model - **Signal**: Neutral [12][65] 3. Institutional Feature Model (LHB) - **Signal**: Neutral [12][65] 4. Feature Volume Model - **Signal**: Bearish [12][65] 5. Smart HS300 Model - **Signal**: Bearish [12][65] 6. Smart CSI500 Model - **Signal**: Bullish [12][65] 7. Limit-Up/Down Model - **Signal**: Neutral [13][66] 8. Calendar Effect Model - **Signal**: Neutral [13][66] 9. Long-Term Momentum Model - **Signal**: Neutral [14][67] 10. A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Signal**: Bearish [15][68] 11. A-Share Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model - **Signal**: Bearish [15][68] 12. HK Stock Turnover-to-Volatility Model - **Signal**: Bearish [16][69]

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized by their market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][7] - The "Total Heat Index" is used as a proxy variable for "emotional heat" to track the sentiment of broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[7] - The report constructs a simple rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the highest change rate is in the "others" group[13][15] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 8.32% since 2025[16] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on the heat change rate of concepts, selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and forming a "TOP" portfolio with the top 10 stocks by total heat in each concept, and a "BOTTOM" portfolio with the bottom 10 stocks by total heat in each concept[31] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio of high-heat concepts has historically achieved significant excess returns, with an annualized return of 15.71% and a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 18% since 2025[33] - The "Total Heat Index" for individual stocks is defined as the sum of browsing, self-selection, and click counts, normalized by their market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][7] - The "Total Heat Index" for broad-based indices is obtained by summing the total heat indices of the constituent stocks of the indices, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000, as well as an "others" group for stocks not included in these indices[8] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) for broad-based indices is calculated and used to construct a rotation strategy, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the highest change rate is in the "others" group[13][15] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) for industries is calculated similarly, with the report listing the top 5 industries with the highest positive and negative heat change rates for both primary and secondary industries[20][27] - The weekly heat change rate for concepts is calculated similarly, with the report listing the top 30 concepts with the highest heat change rates[28][30] - Two simple portfolios are constructed based on the heat change rate of concepts, selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and forming a "TOP" portfolio with the top 10 stocks by total heat in each concept, and a "BOTTOM" portfolio with the bottom 10 stocks by total heat in each concept[31] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 8.32% since 2025[16] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio of high-heat concepts has an annualized return of 15.71% and a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 18% since 2025[33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) [1] Core Views - Tencent's 1Q25 financial results exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 180 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 13%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 3% [1][8] - The NON-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 61.3 billion CNY, up 22% year-over-year, also exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 3% [1][8] - The target price range is set between 545.69 and 606.33 HKD, with the current price at 508.00 HKD [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 1Q25 was 1800 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 13% [1][8] - NON-IFRS net profit for the same period was 613 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 22% [1][8] - The company achieved a capital expenditure (CAPEX) of 23 billion CNY, a significant year-over-year increase of 60%, representing 13% of total revenue [1][30] Business Segment Performance - **Gaming**: Revenue from the gaming segment reached 595 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 24%, marking the highest growth rate in five quarters [1][18] - **Social Networks**: Revenue from social networks was 326 billion CNY, with a year-over-year increase of 7% [1][26] - **Marketing Services**: This segment generated 319 billion CNY in revenue, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 20% [1][30] - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue was 549 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 5% [1][32] Future Outlook - The report projects a revenue forecast for 2025-2027 of 7286 billion CNY, 7845 billion CNY, and 8356 billion CNY respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 10%, 8%, and 7% [5] - The NON-IFRS net profit forecast for the same period is adjusted to 2560 billion CNY, 2886 billion CNY, and 3131 billion CNY, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 13%, and 9% [5] Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the EPS for 2025-2027 to be 28.00 CNY, 31.85 CNY, and 34.87 CNY respectively, with corresponding target PE ratios of 18-20x for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 26.5 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 2.39 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 230 million CNY, down 16.2% year-on-year [2][8]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to a faster growth rate in lower-margin export sales compared to domestic sales, leading to a decrease in overall gross margin [2][8]. - The company is actively optimizing its business and product structure, focusing on high-end brands and developing its automotive parts business, which is expected to create a second growth curve [2][8]. - The establishment of production bases in Vietnam and Thailand is expected to enhance the company's ability to mitigate potential tariff risks [2][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 9.765 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.1%. The net profit is expected to be 1.23 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 10.2% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is estimated at 2.19 CNY, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 [4][9]. - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.4%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 14.098 billion CNY by 2025E, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 102.4% [9].