Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that the sentiment in the pork market is supporting an upward shift in pork prices, with the average price for external three-line pigs at 14.20 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.43% [2][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing soybean and oilseed production, with a focus on enhancing yield through advanced agricultural practices and the promotion of genetically modified varieties [1][11] - The report suggests that while short-term consumer demand is recovering, supply remains relatively loose, but medium to long-term projections indicate that pork prices may exceed expectations in the second half of 2025 due to slow recovery in production capacity [2][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss the production and demand situation for soybeans and oilseeds, emphasizing the need to enhance production capacity and implement key measures for yield improvement [1][11] - The report identifies potential beneficiaries in the planting sector, including Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, and recommends companies with a strong first-mover advantage in the seed industry such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11] Swine Farming - The average price of external three-line pigs is reported at 14.20 CNY/kg, with a significant increase in slaughter volume and consumer demand noted [2][12] - The report indicates that the number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, and the profitability of self-breeding operations has turned positive, suggesting a potential for recovery in the swine sector [2][12] - Recommended stocks in the swine farming sector include companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and DeKang Agriculture [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2412.94 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.54% [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2440.61 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.46% [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 3946.32 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.21% [40] - Cotton: The average price is 14760.00 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [45] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is reported at 2.69 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [51] - Vitamin E prices have decreased by 10.02% to 80.80 CNY/kg [51][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two weeks, interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward. Institutions continued to explore credit - bond spreads, with long - duration bonds becoming the focus. The 10 - year credit spread has significantly compressed. The trading sentiment of credit bonds is quite extreme. Considering the usual significant decline in wealth - management scale in the last week of June, credit bonds may experience short - term fluctuations. Accounts with unstable liability ends are not advised to chase the rising market but can make arrangements during adjustments. Accounts that have already invested in long - duration credit bonds earlier do not need to rush to take profits as there is still some allocation demand in July. Additionally, there is still room for the spread of long - duration credit bonds to compress [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 City Investment Bonds - Net financing remains weak. From June 1 - 22, 2025, city investment bonds issued 3781 billion yuan, matured 3767 billion yuan, and only achieved a net financing of 14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 791 billion yuan. The primary issuance sentiment declined, with the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times dropping by 14 percentage points to 62%. The proportion of issuances with a term of over 3 years further increased to 45% [31] - Short - end issuance rates continued to reach new lows. In June, the issuance rates of city investment bonds continued to decline. The rates for bonds with a term of less than 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and 3 - 5 years decreased by 10bp, 7bp, and 15bp respectively compared to May, reaching 1.76%, 2.19%, and 2.51% [33] - In the secondary market, long - end bonds performed strongly, with yields of many terms reaching new lows. From June 16 - 20, yields of city investment bonds across all terms declined. The decline in medium - and short - end yields was limited, mostly within 3bp, while most long - end bonds with a term of over 5 years declined by more than 5bp, and credit spreads also compressed [36] - From the broker transaction data, bonds of all terms were traded at a discount to valuation, with long - term bonds over 5 years performing the best. The daily transactions of city investment bonds were still active, with daily transactions often exceeding 800, and the average discount to valuation per trading day was around 2bp. The average discount to valuation of long - term bonds over 5 years was 2.8bp [41] 3.2 Industrial Bonds - In June, the issuance and net - financing scale of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. From June 1 - 22, industrial bonds issued 6187 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1345 billion yuan, and achieved a net financing of 3050 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1425 billion yuan. The comprehensive, public - utility, and non - bank financial industries had relatively large net - financing scales [43] - The issuance sentiment weakened. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times decreased from 38% to 30%, while the proportion of 2 - 3 times increased from 24% to 30% [43] - The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased. Since June, the proportion of industrial bonds with a term of less than 1 year decreased from 40% in May to 31%, while the proportions of 1 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years (including 5 years but excluding 3 years), and over 5 years increased to 40%, 18%, and 12% respectively [43] - From the broker transactions, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds was high. The TKN proportion remained at 79%, and the proportion of discount - to - valuation transactions increased from 65% to 66%. The transaction duration lengthened, with the proportion of transactions over 5 years increasing by 5 percentage points to 19% [45] 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - In the primary market, from June 16 - 22, 2025, Xi'an Bank and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank each issued a 20 - billion - yuan 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bond. The issuance rate of Xi'an Bank was 2.30%. Minsheng Bank issued a 300 - billion - yuan 5 + N - year perpetual bond with an issuance rate of 2.30% [48] - In the secondary market, yields of bank capital bonds declined across the board, and spreads showed differentiation. 10 - year secondary capital bonds and medium - and long - term perpetual bonds performed better. Specifically, yields of 1 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds generally declined by 2 - 4bp, with credit spreads fluctuating narrowly. The 10 - year secondary capital bond yield declined by 5bp, and the spread narrowed by 2bp. Bank perpetual bonds outperformed secondary capital bonds, with most credit spreads narrowing by 0 - 4bp [48] - From the broker transactions, from June 16 - 20, the number of bank capital bond transactions increased significantly month - on - month, and the trading sentiment was good. The TKN proportion was above 68%. The proportions of discount - to - valuation transactions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds increased by 2 and 1 percentage points respectively to 70% and 77%. In terms of the term structure, state - owned bank transactions were still concentrated in long - duration bonds with good liquidity. The proportion of 4 - 5 - year secondary capital bond transactions of state - owned banks increased by 3 percentage points to 54%, while that of perpetual bonds decreased by 4 percentage points to 60%. Joint - stock bank transactions reduced the duration [51] - Regarding TLAC bonds, by subtracting the average yields of 3 + 1, 5 + 1, and 10 + 1 TLAC bonds from the yields to maturity of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds, the spreads of secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were obtained. As of June 20, 2025, the spreads of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were 3.5bp, 7.5bp, and 4.8bp respectively, indicating that the 10 - year TLAC bond was more cost - effective at present [54] - For commercial financial bonds, taking the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond as an example, since 2021, its spread has mostly fluctuated between 10 - 30bp, with a stable spread center at 20bp. As of June 20, the credit spread of the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond was 14bp, at a relatively low level compared to the spread center [58]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Position Parameter Table - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to predict future index returns by identifying the relationship between historical price-volume patterns and future performance. It establishes a multi-to-one mapping between historical periods and future periods to construct a position parameter table[40][49]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Fix the future return period to 20 trading days for monthly portfolio construction[40]. 2. Traverse historical price-volume periods ranging from 5 to 240 days to identify the most effective historical period for prediction[40]. 3. Use polar coordinates to represent index states, where the radial distance (ρ) is calculated using the Mahalanobis distance: $ \rho = \sqrt{(x-y)^T \cdot \Sigma^{-1} \cdot (x-y)} $ Here, $x$ represents the current price and volume, $y$ represents historical price and volume, and $Σ$ is the covariance matrix[14][15]. 4. The polar angle (θ) is calculated using the arctangent function: $ \theta = \arctan2(\text{Volume Change}, \text{Price Change}) $[15]. 5. Divide the polar coordinate plane into 80 regions by segmenting the radial distance into 5 equal parts and the polar angle into 16 equal parts[31]. 6. Map each region to the average future 20-day return of indices within that region[46]. 7. Expand the table along two dimensions: - Dimension 1: Calculate the relationship between multiple historical periods and future returns for a single historical date[49]. - Dimension 2: Calculate the relationship between multiple historical dates and future returns for a single historical period[47][49]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures historical price-volume patterns and their relationship with future returns, enabling the construction of robust ETF portfolios[40][49]. 2. Model Name: ETF Selection Based on Position Parameter Table - **Model Construction Idea**: This model selects ETFs by matching historical price-volume patterns with regions in the position parameter table that correspond to high future returns[51]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. At each rebalancing point, calculate the price-volume patterns of indices over multiple historical periods[51]. 2. Match these patterns with the position parameter table to identify regions with the highest future return rankings[51]. 3. Select indices within these optimal regions to construct the ETF portfolio[51]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong predictive power and adaptability, as evidenced by its performance across different time windows[51][53]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Position Parameter Table - **Annualized Return**: 17.27% (Full Sample), 14.65% (Fixed Window), 17.45% (Rolling Window)[65] - **Cumulative Return**: 351.83% (Full Sample), 264.93% (Fixed Window), 358.64% (Rolling Window)[65] - **Excess Return (2021-2025/6/20)**: - Fixed Window: 35.81% (ETF Portfolio: +15.82%, Equal-Weighted ETF: -14.72%)[57] - Rolling Window: 77.51% (ETF Portfolio: +51.38%, Equal-Weighted ETF: -14.72%)[60] 2. ETF Selection Based on Position Parameter Table - **Annual Returns**: - 2021: 6.11% (Fixed Window), 15.96% (Rolling Window), 13.31% (Equal-Weighted ETF)[65] - 2022: -9.28% (Fixed Window), -5.13% (Rolling Window), -22.15% (Equal-Weighted ETF)[65] - 2023: -4.51% (Fixed Window), -6.88% (Rolling Window), -8.35% (Equal-Weighted ETF)[65] - 2024: 16.03% (Fixed Window), 29.12% (Rolling Window), 7.18% (Equal-Weighted ETF)[65] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Price-Volume Pattern (Polar Coordinates) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor quantifies the price-volume relationship of indices using polar coordinates to identify distinct movement patterns[15][19]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Represent price and volume changes in a Cartesian coordinate system, dividing them into four quadrants: - Quadrant 1: Price up, Volume up (0°-90°) - Quadrant 2: Price down, Volume up (90°-180°) - Quadrant 3: Price down, Volume down (180°-270°) - Quadrant 4: Price up, Volume down (270°-360°)[19][20]. 2. Transition to polar coordinates, where the radial distance (ρ) measures the magnitude of change, and the polar angle (θ) indicates the direction of change[15][19]. 3. Use historical data to map price-volume patterns to future returns, identifying regions with high predictive power[28][31]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a precise and intuitive representation of price-volume dynamics, enabling effective prediction of future index performance[19][31]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Price-Volume Pattern (Polar Coordinates) - **Future 20-Day Return by Region**: - Regions with high radial distances and specific angular ranges (e.g., 0°-90° for strong upward momentum) exhibit higher average returns[28][31]. - Historical data shows that indices in regions corresponding to "Volume Up + Price Up" (0°-90°) and "Volume Down + Price Down" (180°-270°) tend to perform better in the future[25][28].

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Title] Marvell 上调预期，拉动海外算力链持续上涨 [Table_Title2] 通信行业 [Table_Summary] 1、Marvell 上调数据中心 Capex 与 ASIC 预期指引，引发海外算 力链持续上涨 美东时间 6 月 18 日，Marvell 举办 AI 投资者日，预计 2028 年 数据中心资本开支将超过一万亿美元。同时进一步上调数据中 心市场规模 2028 年预期至 940 亿美元，较 2024 年 4 月的预期 750 亿美元上调 26%，其中上调定制计算芯片（XPU 和 XPU 配套 芯片）市场规模指引 37%。 2、投资建议 算力需求在过去两年受益于算力芯片催生一波跳跃式需求增 长，受数据源限制、密度功耗、Scaling Law 效率递减等多重 因素影响下开源与闭源模型效用逐渐达到同一等级，在 DeepSeek 影响下训练算力成本大幅下降，对于主权算力以及算 力资本开支下滑的担忧不止。 尽管如此，OpenAI 其营收规模与商用付费客户也持续呈现快速 增长，包括 Ora ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 周专题：5 月家电社零同比加速，第三、四批国补资金分别 7、10 月发放 [Table_Title2] 家电行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 周专题： 5 月限额以上家电零售额同比高增，增速领先。根据 wind， 2025 年 1-5 月限额以上单位的家用电器和音像器材类累计商 品零售额同比+30.2%，累计零售额为 4641 亿元，其中单 5月 实现同比+53%（4 月为+39%），单 5 月零售额为 1166 亿元。 根据国家统计局，5 月家电和音响器材类零售额同比增速大 幅领先文化办公用品类（+31%）、家居类（+25.6%）、通讯 器材类（+33%）。 关税政策波动、下游需求不及预期、行业竞争加剧、上游原材 料成本波动等风险等。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 -11% -5% 2% 8% 15% 21% 2024/06 2024/09 2024/12 2025/03 2025/06 家用电器 沪 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The beauty sector experienced a stable conclusion during the 618 shopping festival, with significant changes in platform and brand dynamics driven by reduced commission policies and interest-based content ecosystems [1][2] - The total GMV for beauty products across four major e-commerce platforms (Taobao, JD, Douyin, Kuaishou) during the 618 period was between 600-700 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 10% [1] - Taobao maintained the largest market share at 41.3%, followed by Douyin at 35.7%, JD at 14.8%, and Kuaishou at 8.2% [1][13] Summary by Sections E-commerce Platform Dynamics - Douyin's beauty segment is rapidly growing, supported by merchant subsidies and interest-driven consumer engagement, achieving double-digit growth [2] - Douyin's promotional strategies included a 1.4 billion yuan subsidy for merchants in May, with individual merchant reductions reaching up to 2.99 million yuan [2] Skincare and Makeup Categories - In the skincare category, domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu led the market, maintaining their top positions on Taobao and Douyin [3] - The top five brands in the skincare category on Taobao remained stable, with Proya and Han Shu continuing to dominate [3] - In the makeup and fragrance category, new domestic brands are emerging, with Ti Luo Wei achieving rapid growth by focusing on base makeup products [4] International and Domestic Brand Strategies - International brands are performing well due to localized marketing strategies and a willingness to engage with local consumers [8] - Domestic brands are expected to break out of the competitive cycle focused on ingredients and efficacy, emphasizing brand influence and comprehensive user experience [8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on domestic companies with strong brand equity and comprehensive channel strategies, particularly Proya and Han Shu [9] - Highlight technology-driven skincare brands like Betaini and Juzi Biology that target specific consumer needs [9] - Consider daily chemical brands with strong cost-performance ratios and excellent management of emerging channels, such as Runben and Dengkang [9]

Market Overview - The bond market is currently in a "full bow" state, with the median duration of interest rate bond funds reaching a historical high of 5.25 years as of June 20, 2025[1] - The leverage ratio for non-bank financial institutions is approximately 113.9%, up from a low of 113.5% in mid-February 2025, but still below the historical peak of 118.5%[1] Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between new and old bonds has been fully explored, with the yield on long-term active bonds declining by about 5 basis points, while older bonds have seen declines of 8-9 basis points[2] - The yield spread between 10-year national development bonds and national treasury bonds has narrowed from a high of 7.2 basis points to the current 3.7 basis points[2] Market Dynamics - The bond market has been characterized by a lack of clear direction, with 12 historical rounds of yield spread compression analyzed, showing that 8 rounds occurred in uncertain market conditions[3] - The compression of yield spreads is often concluded by clear market signals such as interest rate cuts or significant supply increases, which could lead to a re-expansion of spreads[3] Future Outlook - The process of compressing yield spreads may continue until the central bank initiates bond purchases or provides stronger signals, such as allowing treasury bonds to meet reserve requirements[4] - The market is expected to experience increased volatility following the implementation of new monetary policies, particularly around natural easing points like the beginning of a quarter[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]

► 美团订单增长与格局稳固，行业迈向服务竞争时代 事件：据雷峰网 6月 17日独家报道，自 6 月中旬开始，美 团外卖日均支付订单始终维持在9000 万量级以上。从单日 GMV 和餐食外卖市场单量等角度看，美团外卖市占率稳居 70%左右，尽管京东外卖与饿了么（淘宝）通过激进补贴 策略推动订单增长，但美团领先地位依然稳固，市场格局 保持"7:2:1"的稳定态势。 竞争格局：美团壁垒深厚。剔除茶饮订单后，美团在餐食 外卖的订单量与 GMV 市占率均超 70%。核心壁垒体现在， 一方面，美团具有履约服务优势，据高见观潮，其履约准 时率达 99.5%。另一方面，美团商家生态深度高，2024 年 美团活跃商户数 1450 万家，远超饿了么 400 万家与京东 45 万家，正餐品类 SKU 丰富度形成碾压优势。此外，京 分析师 证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 拼多多试水即时零售，行业竞争格局再添变量 [Table_Title2] 海外周报 [Table_Summary] 核心结论: ► 拼多多试水即时零售，行业竞争格局再添变量 事件：据晚 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the "1+6" policy system focusing on hard technology, aiming to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market, particularly for high-quality core technology enterprises [2][3] - The introduction of the Sci-Tech Growth Layer and the restart of the fifth listing standard on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board are significant breakthroughs in the capital market's inclusiveness and adaptability [3][4] - The fifth listing standard does not impose revenue or net profit requirements, facilitating the entry of non-profitable but competitive enterprises into the capital market [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that all non-profitable technology enterprises will be included in the Sci-Tech Growth Layer, with a unified special identifier "U" for their stock names, enhancing risk disclosure [4] - A new pre-review mechanism for IPOs targeting quality technology enterprises is introduced, which aims to improve IPO efficiency while protecting corporate information and technological security [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The launch of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" and the rise of stablecoins are reshaping the cross-border payment landscape, enhancing efficiency and supporting the internationalization of the RMB [11][12] - JD Group is actively pursuing stablecoin licenses globally, aiming to reduce cross-border payment costs by 90% and transaction times to under 10 seconds [41][48] - The U.S. Senate has passed the "GENIUS Act," establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, which mandates full backing by high-quality liquid assets [51][52] Summary by Sections Cross-Border Payment Innovations - The "Cross-Border Payment Link" officially launched on June 22, 2025, connecting payment systems between mainland China and Hong Kong, facilitating efficient cross-border transactions [11][12] - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority are collaborating to enhance cross-border payment services, which will significantly reduce transaction costs and time [22][23] JD Group's Stablecoin Strategy - JD Group plans to issue a stablecoin pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and U.S. dollar, with a focus on cross-border trade settlements [41][49] - The stablecoin project is currently in a regulatory sandbox in Hong Kong, with expectations to launch in the fourth quarter of 2025 [49][50] U.S. Regulatory Developments - The "GENIUS Act" passed by the U.S. Senate requires stablecoins to be fully backed by liquid assets, with strict auditing and compliance measures for issuers [51][52] - This legislation aims to provide a clear regulatory framework, enhancing the legitimacy of stablecoins and potentially increasing their adoption in everyday transactions [56][57]