Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies such as Shentong Express and Yunda Express, indicating a positive outlook for these firms in the express delivery sector [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry continues to show strong performance, with May 2025 data indicating a business volume of 17.32 billion pieces and revenue of 125.55 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.2% and 8.2% respectively [3]. - The demand for express delivery is driven by trends such as the increasing popularity of small and light packages, the rise of reverse logistics, and the benefits from lower-tier markets [6]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with major players adjusting strategies to focus on market share rather than aggressive price competition, suggesting a controlled environment for price wars compared to previous years [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In May 2025, the express delivery sector achieved a total business volume of 173.2 billion pieces and revenue of 1255.5 billion yuan, with cumulative revenue from January to May reaching 5924.6 billion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year [3]. - The cumulative business volume for the same period was 787.7 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [3]. Company Performance - For May 2025, the revenue and business volume for major companies were as follows: - SF Express: Revenue of 19.38 billion yuan, business volume of 1.48 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% and 32% respectively [4]. - Shentong Express: Revenue of 4.41 billion yuan, business volume of 2.26 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 13.0% and 16% respectively [4]. - Yunda Express: Revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, business volume of 2.30 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 13% respectively [4]. - YTO Express: Revenue of 5.85 billion yuan, business volume of 2.76 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 14.8% and 21% respectively [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery sector is currently undervalued, with expectations of continued growth driven by the expanding e-commerce market and new demands from lower-tier markets [6]. - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the e-commerce express delivery space, including ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express, as well as the logistics leader SF Express [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive rating for the industry, suggesting that AI computing power leasing could become the next ideal anchor asset for RWA [4]. Core Insights - RWA serves as a bridge between real-world assets and web3.0, facilitating the transition from web2.0 to web3.0 financing channels by tokenizing tangible and intangible assets on the blockchain [1][8]. - The expansion of RWA assets has evolved from traditional financial assets to real estate and physical economy assets, with significant participation from major financial institutions [11][12]. - AI computing power leasing is identified as a promising next step in the RWA asset chain, characterized by market growth, clear yield transparency, and defined market financing needs [2][3]. Summary by Sections RWA Asset Expansion Path - RWA utilizes blockchain technology to convert real-world assets into digital tokens, enabling investment in fixed-income products and facilitating asset diversification and risk sharing [1][8]. - The RWA asset category has expanded significantly since the introduction of stablecoins like USDT in 2014, which addressed volatility in the crypto market [11][12]. Characteristics of Ideal Anchor Assets for RWA - Ideal RWA anchor assets should exhibit continuous market growth, transparent yield, and clear market financing demand [18][19]. - The process of "confirmation—splitting—circulation—financialization" is essential for RWA, ensuring that assets are digitized and can be traded efficiently [18][20]. AI Computing Power Leasing as the Next Anchor Asset - The report highlights that AI computing power leasing possesses the necessary characteristics to become an ideal anchor asset for RWA, driven by the increasing demand for computational resources in AI applications [2][29]. - The global AI computing power leasing market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates reaching $14.6 billion in 2024 and expanding to $63.64 billion by 2031 [44][47]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests closely monitoring the relevant industry chain, including IDC manufacturers and cloud service providers, as they are poised to benefit from the growth of RWA and AI computing power leasing [3][58].

Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see strong demand during the summer peak season, with a recommendation to focus on pre-peak investment opportunities. The industry has gradually emerged from the low-demand season since March, with rational pricing strategies from airlines supporting demand [3][12]. - In 2024, the total revenue of six listed airlines is projected to reach 521.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a tax pre-profit of 3 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 9 billion yuan in 2023. Different airlines show varying degrees of profit improvement [10][12]. - The report highlights that the international oil price decline will significantly enhance airline profits. A 5% drop in Brent crude oil prices could increase the pre-tax profits of major airlines by 29 billion yuan for Air China and 23 billion yuan for Eastern Airlines [14][15]. Group 2: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector is anticipated to maintain strong growth resilience, with business volumes expected to increase by 21.5% in 2024 and 21.6% in Q1 2025. The total business volume for 2024 is projected to reach 1.758 billion pieces [32][35]. - The market concentration in the express delivery industry is on the rise, with the CR8 index expected to reach 85.2% in 2024 and 86.9% in Q1 2025, indicating a more consolidated market [32][35]. - Revenue for the express delivery industry is forecasted to grow by 13.8% in 2024, reaching 1.4 trillion yuan, with a slight pressure on average ticket prices, which are expected to decline by 14.2% [35][36]. Group 3: Dividend and Asset Value - The report emphasizes the value of dividend assets in the transportation sector, with cash dividend ratios for highways, railways, and ports projected at 51%, 47%, and 36% respectively for 2024, indicating strong cash flow stability [44][45]. - The TTM dividend yields for these sectors are expected to be 3.0% for highways, 3.3% for railways, and 2.3% for ports, reflecting a stable increase compared to previous years [44][45]. Group 4: Shipping Sector - The shipping sector faces short-term pressure due to US-China tariff disputes, but structural opportunities may arise. The report suggests that the tariff situation could lead to a shift in import demands, particularly for agricultural products, which may benefit dry bulk shipping [48][56]. - Historical data indicates that previous trade disputes have led to increased shipping rates for certain routes, suggesting potential for similar outcomes in the current context [48][56].

Funding and Policy Overview - The recent pause in the "National Subsidy" ("国补") program was due to the rapid consumption of subsidy funds, which outpaced the issuance of special government bonds[1] - A total of 1,380 billion yuan in central funds will be distributed in batches during the third and fourth quarters, focusing on the implementation of existing funds rather than increasing the 3,000 billion yuan quota[1][4] - As of the end of May, approximately 1,620 billion yuan of the subsidy funds had been allocated, with over half of the expected funds consumed in the first five months[2][3] Impact on Consumer Spending - The "trade-in" subsidy program has significantly boosted retail sales, with May's total retail sales exceeding the trend value by approximately 2.8 percentage points[5] - The year-on-year growth rate for "trade-in" categories in May reached 16.6%, compared to an overall retail sales growth of 8.2%[5][6] - However, due to the rapid consumption of subsidy funds, the growth rate of retail sales may experience downward fluctuations in the coming months[5] Future Considerations - The "trade-in" policy needs to be strengthened in terms of quantity to prevent a decline in consumer momentum, as non-"trade-in" categories only saw a year-on-year growth of 1.6% in May[6] - There is a need for further improvement in policy mechanisms to reduce unfair competition caused by differences in subsidy standards and regional disparities[6] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, and fluctuations in exports[6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Competitive Advantage Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Focuses on analyzing industry competition barriers and identifying companies with unique management advantages in various industry categories such as "Shielded Barriers," "Intense Competition," "Steady Progress," and "Seeking Breakthroughs" [13][14] **Construction Process**: Combines "Shielded Barriers" industries with "Dominant + Cooperative Win-Win" companies and "Efficient Operations" companies in non-barrier industries to form the Competitive Advantage Portfolio [14] **Evaluation**: Provides a differentiated value quantification perspective compared to traditional factor investment [13] - **Model Name**: Safety Margin Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Emphasizes the gap between intrinsic value and market value, focusing on companies with sustainable competitive advantages and high ROIC [18] **Construction Process**: Calculates intrinsic value based on profitability metrics, selects the top 50 stocks with the highest safety margin from a competitive advantage stock pool, and weights them by dividend yield [18][20] **Evaluation**: Highlights the importance of intrinsic value estimation and sustainable profitability [18] - **Model Name**: Dividend Low Volatility Adjusted Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Avoids "high dividend traps" by focusing on sustainable profitability and excluding stocks with extreme price performance or abnormal debt ratios [25] **Construction Process**: Implements predictive models for dividend yield and applies negative screening criteria to optimize the portfolio [25] **Evaluation**: Addresses the risks of chasing high dividend yields without considering long-term value [25] - **Model Name**: AEG Valuation Potential Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Invests in companies with abnormal earnings growth (AEG) that exceed opportunity costs, focusing on undervalued growth potential [30][34] **Construction Process**: Uses the AEG_EP factor to select the top 100 stocks, then narrows down to the top 50 stocks with high dividend reinvestment/P ratios [34] **Evaluation**: Incorporates growth premiums into valuation models, providing a comprehensive perspective on future earnings potential [30][31] - **Model Name**: Cash Cow Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Evaluates companies based on free cash flow (FCF) and cash flow return (CFOR) to assess profitability and cash generation efficiency [38][40] **Construction Process**: Combines CFOR decomposition with ROE decomposition, focusing on high-quality stocks within the CSI 800 index [39][40] **Evaluation**: Enhances traditional DuPont analysis by integrating cash flow metrics for a more comprehensive evaluation [38] - **Model Name**: Large Model AI Stock Selection Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Utilizes FinLLM to process unstructured financial texts and integrates multi-dimensional validation methods such as chain-of-thought reasoning (COT), comparative analysis, and counterfactual reasoning [44][47] **Construction Process**: Applies FinLLM to extract signals from financial texts and uses a triangular validation system to ensure decision-making robustness [47][48] **Evaluation**: Overcomes limitations of traditional models by leveraging AI for non-structured data analysis and improving prediction accuracy [44][47] - **Model Name**: Governance Efficiency Portfolio **Construction Idea**: Analyzes MD&A disclosures to evaluate management transparency, financial consistency, and long-term value creation [53][54] **Construction Process**: Combines short-term profit guidance and financial consistency factors to form a base portfolio, then selects top 50 stocks using PB_ROE factor for valuation and profitability [57] **Evaluation**: Provides insights into management quality and strategic alignment, emphasizing governance as a key alpha source [53][57] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Competitive Advantage Portfolio**: Annualized return 20.41%, Sharpe ratio 0.93, IR 0.12, max drawdown -19.32%, Calmar ratio 1.06 [17] - **Safety Margin Portfolio**: Annualized return 20.27%, Sharpe ratio 1.02, IR 0.13, max drawdown -16.89%, Calmar ratio 1.20 [22] - **Dividend Low Volatility Adjusted Portfolio**: Annualized return 17.36%, Sharpe ratio 1.00, IR 0.15, max drawdown -21.61%, Calmar ratio 0.80 [26] - **AEG Valuation Potential Portfolio**: Annualized return 23.33%, Sharpe ratio 1.11, IR 0.16, max drawdown -24.04%, Calmar ratio 0.97 [36] - **Cash Cow Portfolio**: Annualized return 13.56%, Sharpe ratio 0.66, IR 0.13, max drawdown -19.80%, Calmar ratio 0.68 [42] - **Large Model AI Stock Selection Portfolio**: Annualized return 16.53%, Sharpe ratio 0.71, IR 0.17, max drawdown -33.01%, Calmar ratio 0.50 [49] - **Governance Efficiency Portfolio**: Annualized return 11.00%, Sharpe ratio 0.51, IR 0.23, max drawdown -23.74%, Calmar ratio 0.46 [59]

Group 1: Retail Industry Overview - The retail industry is focusing on three main investment themes for the second half of 2025: strong product momentum, improved operational conditions, and large comprehensive enterprises [7] - The beauty and personal care sector is showing strong performance, with a year-on-year growth of 62.51% in Q1 2025 for companies like Jinbo Biological and 28.01% for Marubi Biological [38] - The jewelry sector is witnessing a shift towards lighter and more affordable gold products, driven by younger consumers and the trend of diversification in the market [7] Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Sales Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [14] - The consumer confidence index showed a recovery trend in early 2025, indicating a positive outlook for retail consumption [14] - The beauty and jewelry categories experienced year-on-year retail sales growth of 5.48% and 8.06% respectively in the same period [14] Group 3: E-commerce and Offline Trends - E-commerce sales showed a mixed performance, with a total sales index of 50.6% in May 2025, reflecting a slight decline compared to previous months [23] - The offline retail market is stabilizing, with a noticeable recovery in shop rental rates, which reached 53.6% in April and May 2025 [29] - The operating space index showed fluctuations but remained stable, indicating a cautious approach to new store openings [29] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product momentum and operational improvements, such as Proya, Giant Biological, and Marubi Biological [62] - The beauty sector is highlighted for its resilience and growth potential, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their strong performance metrics [62] - The medical beauty sector is also emphasized, particularly companies that are expanding their product lines and improving operational capabilities [7][63]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The narrative of a weakening dollar has become a common preference among risk-averse investors since Trump's administration, as significant depreciation of the dollar often leads to revaluation of non-dollar assets[1] - The macroeconomic narrative is a key driver of market direction, with the potential loss of reserve currency status being a significant concern, particularly due to the large debt burden of the U.S.[2] - Historical transitions of reserve currencies have presented substantial asset revaluation opportunities, with past examples showing significant depreciation of the current reserve currency relative to successors and precious metals[2] Group 2: U.S. Debt Analysis - The U.S. government debt burden has increased by 14.6% from 2019 to 2023, while household leverage has decreased by 3.1% and non-financial corporate leverage has decreased by 8.6%[3] - The U.S. government debt level was over 100% before the global pandemic, but concerns were minimal; post-pandemic, the debt has risen significantly, reflecting a societal "leverage transfer"[3] - The pressure from maturing U.S. government bonds is expected to peak in Q1 2027, with an estimated maturity amount of $9 to $10 trillion, compounded by a potential fiscal deficit stabilizing above 5%[5] Group 3: Future Projections - The next two years are critical for the U.S. debt cycle transition, influencing fiscal, monetary policies, and the dollar index[6] - Historical patterns indicate that the current dollar depreciation cycle may last until the end of 2027, with a potential initial rapid depreciation followed by a prolonged period of volatility[7] - Risks include extreme U.S. trade policies leading to faster and larger-than-expected dollar depreciation, which could exacerbate global economic slowdowns[7]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift from inventory reduction to capacity reduction, particularly in the liquor sector, with a focus on new products and channels for mass-market products [1][12][26] - The overall effective demand remains insufficient, with consumption structure adjustments driven by "emotional premium" and "new channel transformation" [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of new retail channels, such as instant retail, which are reshaping the value chain for brand owners, distributors, and retailers, with efficiency being a key factor [2][31] Group 2 - In the liquor sector, the report notes a significant decline in government consumption, which has dropped from 30-40% to around 5% since the introduction of the "three public consumption ban" in 2012, impacting business and mass consumption indirectly [18][21] - The report outlines the 2025 operational goals for various liquor companies, indicating a rational approach to growth targets amid industry consensus on deceleration [23][24] - The report forecasts that the market size for instant retail in the liquor sector will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth observed in online sales during promotional events [32][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that the white liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with macroeconomic cycles, supply-demand imbalances, and a lack of consumption scenarios affecting stock performance [40][41] - It highlights that the white liquor index has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date decline of 12.1% as of June 12, 2025 [40][39] - The report suggests that the social attributes of white liquor are evolving, with younger generations favoring different social consumption patterns, such as casual gatherings and emotional consumption [26][29]

贝森特"化债"的招靠谱吗？（二） [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 分析师：林彦 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100525030001 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com ➢ 在解决美元信用问题上美国确实玩出了"新花样"。如果说我们在上一篇中 讨论的修改监管规则、释放商业银行需求的还属于常规操作，那么深度捆绑稳定 币则是另辟蹊径的一笔——是解不了"近渴"的"远水"，但所谋甚大。 ➢ 利用加密货币这个与传统资产相对独立的新资金池来化债确实称得上 GENIUS（天才，恰巧是稳定币法案的名字） ，不得不承认在金融创新方面美国 确实走在前列。 ➢ 稳定币能不能解决美债的问题？我们认为这背后有两个维度：一个是短期内 比较直接的逻辑，除了在监管上最直接的要求外，还有把自己和"对手"绑在一 起的意味；另一个则是偏中长期、且更间接，通过巩固全球美元体系来支撑美元 信用，进而稳定美债，同时应对人民币国际化的挑战。 ➢ 对于第一个维度，市面上讨论的已经比 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry as a whole, but it highlights several companies with "Recommended" ratings, including Lante Optics, Sunny Optical Technology, and Hengxuan Technology [4][35]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the leadership of Insta360 in the global panoramic camera market, with a market share of 67.2% in the consumer-grade segment, significantly ahead of competitors like Ricoh and GoPro [2][21]. - The growth of the outdoor sports and social media sharing trends is driving the demand for action cameras, with the global action camera market experiencing a CAGR of 21.2% from 2017 to 2023 [19]. - The report identifies the rise of AR glasses and panoramic cameras as emerging markets, with key players in the supply chain expected to benefit from this growth [2][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The panoramic camera market is expanding, with Insta360 leading the consumer-grade segment and a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas sales, accounting for over 70% in the past three years [1][16]. - The report notes that the global market for panoramic cameras reached 5.03 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth to 7.85 billion yuan by 2027 [20]. 2. Company Performance - Insta360's revenue and net profit have shown rapid growth, with a projected revenue of 5.574 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53.3% [24]. - The company has established a strong supply chain, with key suppliers like Hongjing Optoelectronics and Sunny Optical Technology benefiting from its growth [30][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the AR glasses and panoramic camera supply chain, highlighting brands like Xiaomi and Insta360, as well as manufacturers like Longqi Technology and Lixun Precision [34]. - The report indicates that the integration of AI and AR technologies in smart glasses presents significant long-term growth potential [34].