2025 年 5 月经济数据点评 5 月经济数据的"五大变数" 2025 年 06 月 16 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 研究助理：钟渝梅 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 执业证号：S0100124080017 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 事件： 6 月 16 日，国家统计局发布 5 月份国民经济运行数据。 ➢ 产业韧性和需求不足是当下经济运行的一体两面，5 月经济所呈现出的"生 产稳、投资软，消费升"，表明二季度仍处于政策的观察期。就总量而言，5 月二 产（工业增加值）和三产（服务业生产指数）增速均在 6%附近，表明二季度 GDP 增速 5%以上基本无虞；但结构来看，关税逆风下行业的冷热不均叠加物价走低， 下半年经济所面临的一些新的"变数"正在显现： ➢ 变数一：消费强于投资能否持续？在今年"贸易摩擦"升温的背景下，消费 的表现相对好于投资。"解构"消费，"以旧换新"等政策支持起到了至关重要的 作用，并与"618" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [2][4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the third-party delivery sector, which exhibits strong growth potential. The upward revision of the annual transaction cap reflects the unexpected surge in demand for last-mile delivery services [2][3]. - The company has significantly increased its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 350 million, 670 million, and 1.27 billion RMB respectively, compared to previous estimates of 260 million, 410 million, and 590 million RMB [2][3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are revised to 0.39, 0.73, and 1.38 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 38, 20, and 11 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On June 13, 2025, the company proposed to revise the annual cap for related transactions for last-mile delivery services to 12.845 billion and 20.551 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, representing year-on-year increases of 101.7% and 60.0% respectively [1]. - The revision is driven by the faster-than-expected growth in last-mile delivery demand, with historical transaction amounts reaching 6.369 billion RMB in 2024, up 33.3% from 4.777 billion RMB in 2023 [1]. Business Growth Drivers - The company's flexible transportation network and strong delivery capabilities are expected to meet the increasing last-mile delivery demands, leading to rapid revenue growth [1]. - Key growth strategies include enhancing e-commerce return collection capabilities, expanding service networks and rider teams, and diversifying delivery services [1]. - The company anticipates continued strong growth in express delivery services through deeper collaboration with SF Holding Group, particularly during peak periods [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.746 billion, 23.598 billion, 33.748 billion, and 42.178 billion RMB, with growth rates of 27.1%, 49.9%, 43.0%, and 25.0% respectively [3]. - The projected net profit growth rates for the same years are 161.8%, 167.1%, 89.9%, and 88.4% [3]. - The company’s financial ratios indicate a strong growth trajectory, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 24.09% by 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of Solstice Optoelectronics by the company marks its entry into the high-speed optical module sector, with a total investment not exceeding 5.935 billion yuan [1] - Solstice Optoelectronics specializes in optical communication, covering the entire process from optical chip design to module assembly, and has a strong competitive edge in high-speed optical chips [2] - The optical communication market is experiencing continuous growth, driven by the demand for 800G optical modules and data center interconnects, which positions the company to enhance its strategic layout in the electronic information industry [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast due to poor downstream demand in sectors like LED, projecting net profits of 2.684 billion, 3.640 billion, and 4.603 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 20, 15, and 12 times [3][4] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company announced the acquisition of 100% of Solstice Optoelectronics for a maximum consideration of 629 million USD and an employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) for up to 58 million USD, along with a subscription for convertible bonds not exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] Business Overview - Solstice Optoelectronics operates in the optical communication field with a vertically integrated product line, producing various optical modules ranging from 10G to over 800G, including products for data centers and 5G communication [2] Market Outlook - The optical communication industry is projected to grow significantly, with a 52% increase in the market size for optical transceiver modules expected in 2024, reaching 14.4 billion USD [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 36.77 billion, 42.67 billion, 49.70 billion, and 57.47 billion yuan for 2024-2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.086 billion, 2.684 billion, 3.640 billion, and 4.603 billion yuan [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming year [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing an unexpected surge in demand for last-mile delivery services, leading to an upward revision of the annual transaction cap for related services to RMB 128.45 billion and RMB 205.51 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of +101.7% and +60.0% [1]. - The company's flexible transportation network and strong delivery capabilities are expected to significantly enhance revenue from last-mile delivery services, driven by factors such as the growth of e-commerce returns, network expansion, and diversified service offerings [1]. - The company anticipates continued strong growth in express delivery services in collaboration with SF Holding Group, particularly during peak periods and in regions lacking local delivery personnel [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 15.75 billion in 2024 to RMB 42.18 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 132 million in 2024 to RMB 869 million in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from RMB 0.14 in 2024 to RMB 0.95 in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 96 to 15 over the same period [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 2.67 per share, based on the company's strong growth potential in gold mining and favorable market conditions [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in gold production and profitability, with a projected increase in gold output to 2.5 tons in 2024, marking a historic high for the company [1][3]. - The company benefits from high-grade gold mines, with a total gold resource of 55 tons and an average grade of 8.26 g/t, indicating strong potential for both organic and external growth [2][28]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of net profit reaching HKD 681 million in 2025, driven by increased gold production and favorable gold prices [3][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been in operation for nearly ten years, officially entering the gold mining business in 2017 through acquisitions of several mining companies [1][9]. - The company completed a significant acquisition in July 2023, which is expected to lead to a leap in gold production [1][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of HKD 1.513 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.19%, primarily due to a reduction in gold recycling business [3][17]. - The gold mining segment saw revenue growth from HKD 582 million to HKD 1.229 billion, contributing significantly to overall profits [3][17]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected to increase by 250% to HKD 198 million, driven by higher gold prices and production [3][17]. Resource and Growth Potential - As of the end of 2024, the company holds a total gold resource of 55 tons, with the highest grade found in the Subei County mine at 10.21 g/t [2][28]. - The company has significant exploration potential in both the Tongguan and Subei mining areas, with ongoing efforts to convert exploration licenses into production [2][28]. - The company is positioned to benefit from local government initiatives aimed at consolidating mining resources and promoting efficient mining practices [51][52]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with forecasts indicating net profits of HKD 681 million, HKD 843 million, and HKD 1.085 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][5]. - The anticipated increase in gold production and favorable market conditions are expected to drive revenue growth, with a projected increase in earnings per share (EPS) from HKD 0.15 in 2025 to HKD 0.25 in 2027 [3][5].

非银行业周报 20250615 蚂蚁有望入局稳定币业务探索非银金融新边界 2025 年 06 月 15 日 ➢ 蚂蚁国际有望启动稳定币发行资质申请，稳定币发行参与者扩容有望多层面 利好非银金融机构业务开展和创新。6 月 12 日，蚂蚁集团披露旗下香港和新加 坡分支机构将启动稳定币的发行资质申报工作，将在两地监管框架下开展相关牌 照申请。5 月底香港立法会通过了《稳定币条例》，目前蚂蚁表态参与稳定币发 行牌照，有望成为继京东之后第二家在香港布局稳定币业务的内地科技公司。伴 随稳定币的发展，相关非银机构有望受益稳定币锚定法币的托管、跨境支付、数 字贸易、真实世界资产代币化（RWA）、供应链金融等业务。 ➢ 中国太保和新华保险发布 2025 年前 5 月保费数据，二季度寿险业务保持稳 健增长态势，财险保费基本持平。1）太保寿险 2025 年前 5 月保费收入 1347.87 亿元，同比+10.2%，其中 5 月单月保费收入 194 亿元，同比+9.4%；太保财险 前 5 月保费收入 923.82 亿元，同比+0.5%，其中 5 月单月保费收入 147 亿元， 同比-0.3%；中国太保前 5 月合计保费收入 2271 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power and utilities sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as Funiu Co., Ltd. and Shenneng Co., Ltd. [3][21] Core Insights - The power sector outperformed the broader market, with the utilities sector index closing at 2382.43 points, up 0.26%, and the electricity sub-sector index at 3173.29 points, down 0.25% [1][9] - The commissioning of the Hami-Chongqing ±800 kV UHVDC project significantly enhances power supply capabilities in Chongqing, providing approximately 36 billion kWh annually, which accounts for about 20% of the city's annual electricity demand [2][24] - The establishment of the world's first offshore wind-powered data center in Shanghai aims to support AI and 5G computing needs while promoting low-carbon energy solutions [2][32] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The electricity sector showed resilience with a slight decline in the electricity sub-sector, while thermal power benefited from falling coal prices, leading to improved performance expectations [1][20] - The report highlights the performance of various electricity sub-sectors, noting a decline in photovoltaic generation by 1.79% and an increase in hydropower generation by 1.03% [1][14] Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, which have seen a slight decrease, indicating a favorable environment for thermal power generation [35] - The report also provides insights into the performance of renewable energy sources, with significant growth in wind and solar installations in Xinjiang, which now account for over 54% of the total installed capacity [25][26] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable earnings and growth potential, particularly in thermal power and hydropower sectors, while also highlighting opportunities in renewable energy and data center integration [3][21] - Specific companies recommended include Funiu Co., Ltd., Shenneng Co., Ltd., and China Nuclear Power, with cautious recommendations for China General Nuclear Power [3][22]

➢ 华为开发者大会即将召开，看好华为具身智能布局加速。1）玩家维度：华 为开发者大会是近期重磅催化。华为近期在具身智能领域动作频频，即将于 6 月 20 日举办开发者大会，为后续潜在催化。去年开发者大会上，乐聚夸父人形机器 人首度亮相，今年 AI+机器人领域进展值得期待。我们认为，华为具身智能布局 不断明确，0-1 阶段想象空间最大。2）产品维度：关注边际变化最大的硬件环 节。潜在变化大的环节包括灵巧手传动方案/触觉传感器构型、类 RV 对髋关节谐 波的替代、轻量化材料选型。4 月底以来，产业链关于 PEEK 材料应用的信息催 化了细分板块的强势表现，其他环节存在类似的潜在机会。看好华为具身智能布 局加速，产品维度-看好灵巧手、轻量化等边际变化大的硬件环节。 汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20250615 车企承诺降低账期 整零关系走向双赢 2025 年 06 月 15 日 ➢ 本周数据：2025 年 6 月第 1 周（6.2-6.8）乘用车销量 36.2 万辆，同比 +12.4%，环比-22.3%；新能源乘用车销量 20.2 万辆，同比+18.9%，环比-18.4%； 新能源渗透率 55.7%，环比+2.6pc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the fintech sector, particularly in stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets) [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the global regulatory evolution surrounding stablecoins, highlighting the transition from a "grey area" to a "regulatory sandbox" as major economies establish frameworks to support the industry. This regulatory clarity is expected to enhance market acceptance and reduce transaction costs [9][20]. - The report suggests that the RWA market is poised for significant growth, with projections indicating that the on-chain asset scale could exceed $2 trillion by 2030, up from over $23 billion in 2025 [16][30]. - The report identifies key companies to watch in the stablecoin and RWA sectors, including Zhongke Jincai, Jinzheng Co., and Langxin Group, among others, recommending investors to focus on these entities as they navigate the evolving landscape [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Evolution of Stablecoins and RWA - The report outlines the overseas development of stablecoins, noting that major economies are creating regulatory frameworks to facilitate their use in cross-border payments and digital asset transactions. This shift is expected to lead to a more structured and compliant market [9]. - In China, the report discusses the Hong Kong regulatory sandbox for stablecoins, which aims to balance financial stability with innovation, allowing for the issuance of various fiat-backed stablecoins [20][21]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies involved in stablecoins: Zhongke Jincai, Jinzheng Co., Zhong An Online, Lianlian Digital, China Everbright Holdings, Yuxin Technology, Tianyang Technology, Sifang Chuangxin, and Jingbei Fang [30]. - For RWA, the report highlights Langxin Group, Xiexin Energy, and Jieshun Technology as key players, along with potential RWA assets that could be tokenized [30]. 3. Market Review - The report provides a market review for the week of June 9-13, 2025, noting a slight decline in the CSI 300 index by 0.25% and a 2.25% drop in the computer sector, with specific stocks showing significant gains and losses [38][43].

电力设备及新能源周报 20250615 全球动力电池装车量同比增长，SNEC 展多厂商发布高效率组件产品 2025 年 06 月 15 日 ➢ 本周（20250609-20250613）板块行情 电力设备与新能源板块：本周下跌 0.46%，涨跌幅排名第 17，弱于上证指数。 本周核电指数涨幅最大，工控自动化跌幅最大。核电指数上涨 8.43%，太阳能 指数上涨 0.23%，锂电池指数下跌 0.40%，风力发电指数下跌 0.57%，新能源 汽车指数下跌 0.80%，储能指数下跌 1.25%，工控自动化下跌 1.29%。 ➢ 新能源车：2025 年 1-4 月全球动力电池装车量同比增长 40.2% ➢ 风险提示：政策不达预期、行业竞争加剧致价格超预期下降等。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 根据 SNE Research 最新数据，2025 年 1-4 月，全球动力电池装车量达 308.5 GWh，同比增长 40.2%。从装机量来看，宁德时代以 117.6 GWh 的绝 对优势稳居榜首；比亚迪以 53.4GWh 紧随其后；LG 新能源以 31.4 GWh 位 列第三。从市场份额来看，宁德时代市占率 38.1%，比亚迪 ...