证券研究报告 2025年06月09日 海外行业报告：行业动态研究 快手可灵AI年化收入破1亿美元，谷歌新版Gemini 2.5 Pro 强势登顶 作者： 分析师 孔蓉 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521020002 分析师 李泽宇 SAC执业证书编号：S1110520110002 分析师 樊程安吉 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524080001 分析师 杨雨辰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521110001 分析师 刘诗雨 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524120001 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 全球AI周报 摘要 n 重点公司财报AI进展 n 全球AI动态： n 投资建议 Ø 海外AI： Ø 随着财报披露逐步收尾，我们看到AI主线在多个环节加速落地，显著对冲了市场对宏观与政策不确定性的阶段性悲观情绪。美股科技大厂对AI的资本投入与应用商业化均未放缓，AI主线逻辑持续强化。1）AI算力：Broadcom定制加速器持续 放量，AI基础设施需求强韧。Broadcom Q2营收达150亿美元，同比增长20%，其中AI相关半导体收入达44亿美元，同比+46%，大幅超预期。定制化AI加速器（A ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Credit has reached a new critical point. Short - term credit spreads are extremely compressed with limited gaming space, while mid - to long - term varieties still have opportunities and risks may be controllable [7][52]. - The 5 - year - plus long second - tier capital bonds may experience a narrowing of variety spreads, and there are riding gains in 4 - year - around credit products [7][52]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Who is Boosting the Credit Market? 1.1. May: Low Interest Rates and Credit Catch - up - In May, short - term interest rates declined slightly, while long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates rose. The 10 - year Treasury yield increased by 4.7bp, and the 30 - year Treasury yield increased by 7.2bp [13]. - Credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. Credit spreads narrowed significantly. General credit bonds performed better than second - tier capital and perpetual bonds. Yields of sinking and duration - extending urban investment bonds decreased by over 10bp, and 7 - year - around ultra - long bonds also performed well [3][14][20]. - Entering June, the bond market recovered due to multiple factors. Short - term interest rates were stronger, while credit bonds with poor liquidity reacted slowly, with yields fluctuating and credit spreads mostly widening passively [3][26][27]. 1.2. Who is the Driving Force behind the Credit Market? - From the secondary net - buying data of credit bonds, major buyers such as funds and wealth management products had daily net - buying volumes of 130, 176, and 184 billion yuan in March, April, and May respectively, with a slight increase in May [24][26][29]. - Public funds were the main buyers, especially in the first two weeks of May when their buying intensity was at a high level this year, including increased allocation to long - term credit over 5 years [4][24][29]. - Bank wealth management products had relatively low buying intensity for general credit bonds since April but significantly higher than previous years for long - term credit over 5 years [4][24][29]. - Comparing with the same period in previous years, public funds' buying intensity for credit has increased significantly since late March [33]. - In May, the secondary trading sentiment of general credit bonds heated up, with more transactions, more low - valuation deals, and stronger buying sentiment [34]. - The distribution of significantly low - valuation traded bonds reflects the direction of institutional coupon strategies, including urban investment bonds with implicit ratings of AA(2) and below and some industrial entities [36]. 2. Do We Need to Worry about Wealth Management Products' Quarter - End Repatriation? 2.1. What Changes Have Occurred in Wealth Management Products' Holdings of Credit Bonds? - Since 2023, while the scale of wealth management products has been growing steadily, the absolute scale of their credit - bond holdings has increased, but the proportion in the total investment scale has decreased from about 43.86% in mid - 2023 to 41.11% by the end of 2024 [5][39]. - The investment proportion in assets such as inter - bank certificates of deposit, cash, and bank deposits has increased, implementing a low - volatility strategy [5][39]. - This year, the overall buying intensity of wealth management products in the secondary market is lower than in previous years, but the net - buying volume of second - tier capital bonds far exceeds previous years [43]. - Since 2022, the scale of wealth management products' direct holdings of Shanghai Stock Exchange credit bonds has been decreasing, while that of trust institutions has been increasing, but it has declined since 2025 [45]. 2.2. Wealth Management Products' Repatriation and Widening Credit Spreads - Since 2022, credit spreads have mostly widened in quarter - end months, except in June 2022, March 2023, and March 2025. In March 2025, there were factors of institutional pre - emptive actions [6][47]. - Wealth management institutions manage liquidity more precisely. The quarter - end repatriation may have a limited negative impact on credit spreads and may even trigger institutional pre - emptive actions due to expected growth in wealth management product scale [6][48]. 3. How to View Credit in the Future? - Short - term credit spreads are extremely compressed, with limited room for further compression. Mid - to long - term varieties still have opportunities, and risks may be controllable despite quarter - end liability - side disturbances [7][52]. - The key lies in grasping liquidity. The 5 - year - plus long second - tier capital bonds may see a narrowing of variety spreads, and there are riding gains in 4 - year - around credit products [7][52].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [33] Core Insights - Southbound funds continue to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with a net purchase of 13.681 billion yuan during the week, totaling 624.42 billion yuan year-to-date, which is 83.92% of the total net purchase for 2024 [1] - Major internet companies are currently at relatively low valuations, with projected P/E ratios for 2025 as follows: Xiaomi (27), Tencent (16), Alibaba (12), Meituan (17), Baidu (9), Pinduoduo (10), JD.com (7), and Kuaishou (11) [1] - Kuaishou's AI product, Keling AI, has achieved an annualized revenue run rate exceeding 100 million USD within ten months of launch, with a user base surpassing 22 million globally [1] Summary by Sections Southbound Funds - Southbound funds have shown a strong inflow, with Meituan receiving the highest net purchase of 8.613 billion yuan [28] - The overall trend indicates a growing interest in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the IP economy and consumer recovery sectors [2] AI and Technology - The report highlights the upcoming launch of advanced driving technologies from companies like Tesla and Xiaopeng, with a focus on laser radar and chip suppliers [2] - Kuaishou's AI product is noted for its rapid revenue growth and user acquisition, indicating strong commercial potential in AI applications [1] Consumer and IP Economy - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in the IP economy, with companies like Pop Mart and Blukoo being highlighted for their strong market positions and product offerings [2] - The upcoming IPOs and seasonal consumption trends are expected to drive market expectations higher [2] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,792.54 points, reflecting a weekly increase of approximately 2.16% [14] - The report suggests that the current market conditions are favorable for investment in high-growth sectors, particularly in consumer and technology [2]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - Robovan, or unmanned logistics vehicles, supports L4 level (highly automated driving) technology and aims to address three major logistics pain points: unmanned transportation, unloading, and handling [2][7] - The unmanned delivery market is primarily focused on the scenario from sorting centers to delivery stations, with e-commerce only accounting for 20% of the unmanned delivery market [2][10] - Companies using Robovan have reported significant economic benefits, such as a 30% reduction in per-package costs for Jitu and an increase in delivery efficiency for SF Express [2][16] Summary by Sections Robovan Overview - Robovan is designed to solve logistics challenges, particularly in unmanned transportation and unloading [2][7] - The focus areas include fresh produce, medical supplies, and fast-moving consumer goods [10] Key Manufacturers - **Xinshiqi**: Has full-stack self-research capabilities and modular design for various applications, collaborating with major express companies [3][21] - **Jiushi Intelligent**: Offers multiple products for low-speed transport and delivery, enhancing revenue through software algorithm fees [4][22] - **White Rhino**: Collaborates with major logistics and retail companies to reduce costs through advanced driving technologies [5][26] Market Potential - The logistics and retail sectors have established numerous partnerships with Robovan companies, leading to increased efficiency and reduced costs [29][32] - The potential market for Robovan is estimated at 5 million vehicles based on current application scenarios [32]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - Robovan, or unmanned logistics vehicles, supports L4 level (highly automated driving) technology and aims to address three major logistics pain points: unmanned transportation, unloading, and handling [2][7] - The unmanned delivery market is primarily focused on the segment from sorting centers to delivery stations, with e-commerce only accounting for 20% of the unmanned delivery market [2][10] - Companies utilizing Robovan have reported significant economic benefits, such as a 30% reduction in per-package costs for Jitu and an increase in delivery efficiency for SF Express [2][16] Summary by Sections Robovan Overview - Robovan is designed to solve logistics challenges, particularly in unmanned transportation and unloading, with a focus on sectors like fresh produce, medical supplies, and fast-moving consumer goods [2][10] Key Manufacturers - **Xinshiqi**: Possesses full-stack self-research capabilities and modular design for various applications, collaborating with major express companies [3][21] - **Jiushi Intelligent**: Offers multiple products for low-speed transport and delivery, enhancing revenue through software algorithm fees [4][22] - **White Rhino**: Collaborates with major logistics and retail companies, leveraging passenger vehicle technology to reduce costs [5][26] Market Potential - The logistics and retail sectors have established numerous partnerships with Robovan companies, leading to increased efficiency and reduced costs [29][32] - The potential market for Robovan is estimated at 5 million vehicles based on current application scenarios [32]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - Breakthrough therapies (BTD) are defined as drugs that demonstrate significant and reliable clinical significance, aimed at accelerating the treatment of severe diseases or conditions that critically affect survival quality [4][6] - As of June 4, 2025, a total of 126 domestic innovative drugs have been approved for BTD by CDE, with a trend of expanding from traditional targets like PD-1 and HER2 to emerging targets such as PD-1/IL-2 and BCL2 [4][13] - The potential for overseas expansion of BTD drugs is notable, with 25% of domestic BTD molecules having achieved international market entry, compared to only 1% of all domestic molecules [28][29] Summary by Sections Breakthrough Therapy Overview - Breakthrough therapies were introduced in China in 2020 to expedite the development of innovative drugs for severe diseases [4] - The dynamic shift in breakthrough therapies shows a diversification of targets and companies involved, with emerging biotech firms gaining traction alongside established pharmaceutical companies [4][5] Market Dynamics - The CDE has approved 171 BTD products, with a significant portion being domestic innovations, indicating a robust pipeline for future drug development [13] - The distribution of BTD approvals shows that traditional chemical drugs and monoclonal antibodies dominate, while new molecular types like ADCs are gaining prominence [14][17] Company Performance - Leading companies in BTD approvals include Heng Rui Medicine with 17 approvals, followed by Innovent with 10 and CSPC with 8 [17] - Emerging biotech firms such as Shuyou and Legend Biotech are also highlighted for their potential in the BTD landscape [17] Clinical Progress and Global Expansion - Domestic innovative drugs are progressing steadily in clinical trials, with 13 products approved overseas and 60 in clinical stages as of June 4, 2025 [13] - The report identifies several domestic drugs with high potential for international expansion based on their clinical progress and BTD certification [31][32]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming WWDC 2025, emphasizing the integration of AI into system-level experiences and the expected innovations in hardware and software from Apple [12][15][17] - Recent financial performances from companies like Credo, Broadcom, and Nvidia indicate strong growth driven by AI-related demands, with significant revenue increases reported [20][24][29] - The report notes the resurgence of interest in AI glasses, with multiple new products launched, indicating a growing market for augmented reality applications [6][8] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective - WWDC 2025 is set to showcase AI software and hardware upgrades, with Apple expected to unveil significant updates across its operating systems [12][15] - Credo's stock has surged over 180% due to its focus on AI and high-speed interconnects, with Q4 revenue reaching $170 million, a 25.9% quarter-over-quarter increase [20][22] - Broadcom reported Q2 revenue of $15 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for AI-related products [24][25] - Nvidia's Q1 revenue reached $44.06 billion, a 69% year-over-year increase, with significant contributions from data center and gaming sectors [29][30] 2. AI Glasses Market - The report discusses the launch of new AI glasses by companies like Raybird and Rokid, which are expected to enhance user experiences by integrating smartphone functionalities [6][8] - The AR glasses market is experiencing renewed interest, leading to increased investments in upstream near-eye display projects [6][8] 3. Panel and Display Innovations - The report notes a divergence in the panel market, with display panels maintaining an upward trend due to tariff exemptions and proactive inventory management by brands [7][8] - TCL and Alibaba Cloud have announced a strategic partnership to enhance AI capabilities in semiconductor displays and smart terminals [7][8]

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - Breakthrough therapies (BTD) are defined as drugs that demonstrate significant and reliable clinical significance, aimed at accelerating the treatment of serious diseases or conditions that severely impact the quality of life [4][6] - As of June 4, 2025, a total of 126 domestic innovative drugs have been approved for BTD by CDE, with a trend of expanding from traditional targets like PD-1 and HER2 to emerging targets such as PD-1/IL-2 and BCL2 [4][13] - The potential for overseas expansion of BTD drugs is notable, with 25% of domestic BTD molecules having successfully entered international markets, compared to only 1% of all domestic molecules [28][29] Summary by Sections Breakthrough Therapy Overview - Breakthrough therapies were introduced in China in 2020 to expedite the development of drugs for serious diseases with no effective treatment options [4][6] - The dynamic shift in breakthrough therapies shows a diversification of targets and companies involved, with emerging biotech firms gaining traction alongside established pharmaceutical companies [4][5] Market Potential and Opportunities - The report highlights the increasing global competitiveness of domestic molecules due to their inclusion in the BTD program, which indicates commercial viability and clinical advantages [5][28] - Companies like Kolon Biotech, 3SBio, and others have made significant strides in international markets, achieving record high upfront payments and total deal values [29][30] Clinical Progress and Distribution - As of June 4, 2025, 171 products have been approved for BTD, with 126 being domestic innovative drugs, and a significant number of these are progressing well in clinical trials both domestically and internationally [13][17] - The distribution of BTD approvals shows that companies like Hengrui Medicine lead with 17 approvals, followed by Innovent with 10 and CSPC with 8 [17][18] Target and Molecule Types - The majority of BTD drugs are small molecules, with 49 approved, followed by monoclonal antibodies and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), which are gaining popularity [14][23] - Emerging targets such as B7-H4 and B7-H3 are being explored, indicating a trend towards innovative therapeutic approaches [20][23] Future Outlook - The report identifies potential BTD candidates for international expansion based on their clinical progress and whether they have received BTD certification in the U.S. [31][32] - The analysis suggests that the ongoing development of BTD drugs will continue to align with international market trends and demands, enhancing their global market presence [24][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - Meituan's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 1.3%. Adjusted net profit reached approximately 10.9 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 12.6% [1]. - The core local commerce segment generated revenue of 64.3 billion yuan, also exceeding expectations by 1.5%, with significant contributions from delivery services and commission income [1]. - The new business segment saw a year-on-year revenue growth of 19.2% to 22.2 billion yuan, indicating a narrowing of operating losses [3][4]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan reported total revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, EBIT of 10.6 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit of approximately 10.9 billion yuan, all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. Core Local Commerce - Revenue from core local commerce reached 64.3 billion yuan, with delivery service revenue at 25.7 billion yuan, commission income at 24.1 billion yuan, and online marketing revenue at 11.9 billion yuan. Operating profit for this segment was 13.5 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 9.5% [1]. Food Delivery and Restaurant Services - Meituan is enhancing its food delivery services by diversifying its product line and optimizing delivery networks. The company plans to invest 100 billion yuan over the next three years to support the restaurant service industry [2]. Travel and Hospitality - The company is improving its operational capabilities in the travel and hospitality sector, with a new membership program that integrates various consumer services, enhancing brand recognition and cross-selling opportunities [3]. New Business Developments - The new business segment's revenue growth of 19.2% to 22.2 billion yuan indicates a positive trend, with a reduction in operating losses to 2.3 billion yuan [3][4]. The overseas business has also shown significant progress, particularly in Saudi Arabia [3]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term competitive pressures, Meituan's long-term competitive advantage lies in its strong merchant base and user reviews. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 391.3 billion yuan, 463.2 billion yuan, and 542.6 billion yuan respectively [4].

| 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市（维持评级） | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 曾先毅 分析师 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 06 月 08 日 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 金属与材料 证券研究报告 小非农惨淡推升降息预期，地缘冲突共振利好金价上行 基本金属：铜铝价格走势分化，铜价小幅上行。1）铜：本周铜价延续窄幅震荡，沪铜收于 78620元/吨。 随着宏观对铜价影响再度提升，铜价波动率本周有明显提升，进入下周后价格仍有望延续当前相对较强的 波动表现，价格起伏有进一步扩大表现。基本面上，目前铜社会库存去库暂时休止，市场消费呈现下滑趋 势，部分下游企业也表现出对短期消费的悲观预期，市场的高升水、高月差在本周铜价上涨之后有所转弱。 ...