证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] 行业评级 ——看好 上次评级——看好 [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：中美关税谈判落地，油价震荡上行 [Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 5 月 18 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Summary] ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 2025年 5月 16 日当周，油价震荡上涨。本周，中 美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，双方大幅下调关税，贸易争端紧张 局势缓和，提振市场风险偏好。但美伊核谈判等地缘因素反复（特朗 普称美伊就核协议达成某种共 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the semiconductor sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 1.47%, while other electronic segments have experienced declines, with consumer electronics down by 8.20% [2][8] - A significant agreement has been reached between the US and Saudi Arabia, where Saudi Arabia will invest $600 billion in AI chip technology, with companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Qualcomm collaborating to enhance AI infrastructure in the region [2][26] - The report predicts that by 2030, the operational digital center capacity in the Middle East could exceed 6GW, indicating substantial growth potential in AI infrastructure investments [2][27] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The report notes mixed performance in the electronic sector, with specific year-to-date changes: Semiconductors (+1.47%), Other Electronics II (-4.06%), Components (-1.69%), Optical Electronics (-5.49%), Consumer Electronics (-8.20%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+3.50%) [2][8] - In the past week, notable stock performances included Apple (+6.41%), Tesla (+17.34%), and NVIDIA (+16.07%) [2][11] AI Chip Agreements - The US has signed a major deal with Saudi Arabia for AI chip supply, with NVIDIA providing 18,000 Blackwell chips for a data center with a total capacity of 500 megawatts [2][30] - AMD has committed to a $10 billion investment over five years to deploy 500 megawatts of AI computing power in collaboration with HUMAIN [2][30] - Qualcomm is re-entering the data center CPU market, planning to develop advanced AI data centers in Saudi Arabia [2][30] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in computing power chains such as Industrial Fulian, Shenzhen South Circuit, and others, as well as domestic computing firms like Cambricon and Haiguang Information [2][27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an increase in the valuation center of new consumption, with new tobacco and smart glasses industries poised for catalysts [2] - The report discusses various sectors including paper, exports, new tobacco, home furnishings, consumer goods, packaging, two-wheelers, gold and jewelry, cross-border e-commerce, IP retail, maternal and child products, beauty care, e-commerce, electrical lighting, and tools, indicating a broad analysis of the light industry [2][3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Paper Industry - As of May 15, the average weekly price of imported needle and broadleaf pulp increased by 1.1% and 0.9% respectively, influenced by overseas supply and easing US-China trade tensions [2] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in paper prices due to ongoing demand and cost pressures [2] Export Sector - The narrative remains positive with structural growth and overseas capacity as long-term focus areas [2] - Companies like Walmart and YETI reported stable growth, with Walmart's Q1 revenue up by 2.5% year-on-year [2] New Tobacco - The GLO HILO product from British American Tobacco is set to launch in Japan, with expectations for strong performance in 2024 [2] - Sales for various tobacco products are projected to grow, with heated tobacco products (HNB) and nicotine pouches showing significant increases [3] Home Furnishings - The report notes a decline in revenue and net profit for leading companies like Minhua, but anticipates recovery through multi-channel strategies [3] - Companies such as Gujia and Mousse are highlighted for their potential growth in the domestic market [3] Consumer Goods - The report mentions the upcoming 618 shopping festival, with domestic brands showing strong pre-sale performance [3] - Brands like Babycare and Bubululu are noted for their market leadership in specific categories [3] Packaging - Companies like Yongxin and Yutong are performing steadily, with growth in new segments [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas market expansion for these companies [4] Two-Wheelers - Ninebot's cumulative sales have surpassed 7 million units, indicating robust growth in the electric two-wheeler market [4] - New product launches from companies like Niu Electric are also performing well [4] Gold and Jewelry - The report discusses the launch of new product lines and promotional activities by brands like Chao Hong Ji and Lao Feng Xiang [4] - Despite concerns over gold price fluctuations, sales performance remains strong [4] Cross-Border E-commerce - The easing of tariff pressures is seen as a temporary relief for sellers, with a focus on global supply chain strategies [4] - Companies like Anker Innovations and Zhiou Technology are highlighted for their strong global presence [4] IP Retail - The opening of new stores by brands like Pop Mart is expected to attract significant consumer interest [4] - The report notes the potential for increased foot traffic and sales through innovative product launches [4] Maternal and Child Products - The strategic investment by Kidswant in HanSang Technology aims to enhance service ecosystems [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology in improving customer experience [5] Beauty Care - Domestic brands are leading in pre-sale rankings for the 618 shopping festival, with significant year-on-year growth in sales [5] - Brands like Proya and Kefu Mei are noted for their strong market presence [5] E-commerce - The report discusses the focus on lower-tier markets and the integration of AI in retail strategies [5] - Companies like Huitongda Network are highlighted for their innovative approaches to market expansion [5] Electrical Lighting - Bull Group is focusing on smart lighting and international expansion, launching new products [5] - The report notes the brand's efforts to enhance its global reputation [5] Tools - The report indicates a recovery in shipments due to easing tariff impacts, with companies like Juxing Technology resuming exports [5] - The ongoing shift in production capacity is noted as a significant trend in the industry [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Despite the 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut on Thursday, the funding situation tightened marginally due to factors such as MLF maturity and increased government bond payments. The fluctuations in the funding situation on these two days are considered temporary shocks [2][3]. - Although the excess reserve ratio remains low, the continuous increase in the central bank's net lending to banks from March to April has led to a marginal loosening of funds, which may indicate that the central bank is regulating the funding situation through implicit support for banks. The central bank may not intend to let the funding rate decline significantly in the short - term, and the target central DR007 rate may still be above 1.5% [3]. - It is expected that the central funding rate next week will not rise significantly, and the central DR007 rate is likely to remain between 1.5% - 1.6% [4]. Summary by Directory I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Funding Review - The central bank's reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 350.1 billion yuan this week, with 125 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Thursday and a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut implemented on the same day. The funding rate declined significantly in the first half of the week, with R001 dropping to the range of 1.4% - 1.45%. However, after the reserve requirement ratio cut on Thursday, the funding tightened marginally. On Friday, the central bank made a small - scale net injection, and the DR007 rose to 1.64% [2][7]. - The volume of pledged repurchase first increased and then decreased, with the average daily trading volume rising by 0.33 trillion yuan to 7.14 trillion yuan. The overall scale of pledged repurchase also showed the same trend. The net lending of large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks decreased on Friday. The new - caliber funding gap index decreased to - 486.5 billion on Wednesday and rebounded to - 102.8 billion on Friday, still lower than last Friday's - 15 [3][16]. - The funding rate turned loose as expected this week, with the overnight rate dropping to around 1.4%. However, after the reserve requirement ratio cut on Thursday, the funding tightened marginally. The main reason for the funding fluctuations may be the net payment of 685.8 billion yuan for government bonds and the net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan from reverse repurchase and MLF this week, which are roughly equivalent to the scale of the reserve requirement ratio cut [3][18]. - The excess reserve ratio in April decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9% compared to March, lower than expected. The main reason is the significant decrease in the central bank's claims on other depository corporations. Other factors include the higher - than - expected increase in fiscal deposits, the slower - than - expected cash return, the increase in the central bank's claims on other financial corporations, and the decrease in the central bank's claims on the government [20]. 1.2 Next Week's Funding Outlook - The scale of government bond net payments will decrease from 685.8 billion yuan this week to 437.9 billion yuan next week. The scale of reverse repurchase maturity is 486 billion yuan, and May 22nd is the tax payment deadline. Considering the central bank's attitude of maintaining stability, the probability of a significant increase in the central funding rate next week is limited, and the central DR007 rate is likely to remain between 1.5% - 1.6% [4][39]. - The scale of 10Y coupon - bearing treasury bonds and 50Y special treasury bonds issued in May is higher than expected. The assumption of net treasury bond financing in May is raised to 940 billion yuan, and the assumption of net local government bond financing in May remains at 670 billion yuan. It is estimated that the scale of government bond issuance in May is about 2.42 trillion yuan, and the net financing is about 1.61 trillion yuan [3][4]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate decreased by 4.0BP to 1.67%. The 1 - year secondary rate of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit increased by 1.5BP to 1.675% [40]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased while the maturity scale increased, resulting in a net repayment of 799 million yuan. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks are 90 million yuan, - 848 million yuan, - 63 million yuan, and - 7 million yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 14 percentage points to 23%, and the issuance proportion of 3 - month certificates of deposit is the highest at 57%. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 74.6 billion yuan, an increase of 15.22 billion yuan compared to this week [4][42]. - The issuance success rates of certificates of deposit of various banks decreased slightly compared to last week but remained close to the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened. The demand for certificates of deposit from money market funds and funds weakened, while the willingness of wealth management products and other products to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit increased. The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit continued to rise, increasing by 3.7 percentage points to 47.7% compared to last week [4][55]. III. Bill Market - The bill rate first decreased and then increased this week. The 3 - month and 6 - month rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased by 5BP to 1.14% and 1.13% respectively [62]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market adjusted this week, and the credit spread narrowed. The willingness of large - scale banks to reduce their bond holdings decreased, mainly for perpetual bonds and policy - bank bonds. The willingness of trading - type institutions to slightly reduce their bond holdings increased, while the willingness of allocation - type institutions such as rural commercial banks, insurance companies, and wealth management products to increase their bond holdings generally increased [65].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [126]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent easing of trade disputes between the US and China, along with better-than-expected US inflation data, has improved market sentiment and supported oil prices. Brent crude oil prices increased to $65.41 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week rise of $1.50 [15]. - The refining sector has seen a price increase in refined products due to the easing of tariffs and improved demand, particularly in petrochemical products like styrene and MMA, which have experienced significant price increases [51][84]. - The report indicates that the domestic price difference for key refining projects is 2422.43 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 89.11 CNY/ton (3.82%), while the international price difference is 1125.10 CNY/ton, up 63.39 CNY/ton (5.97%) [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that the Brent crude oil price averaged $65.36 per barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 6.23%. The EIA reported a decrease in US crude oil inventories, which contributed to the fluctuations in oil prices [15]. - The domestic market for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel has seen average prices of 6852.00 CNY/ton, 7934.80 CNY/ton, and 6005.67 CNY/ton respectively, with varying changes in price differentials against crude oil [15]. Chemical Sector - The report indicates that the prices of petrochemical products have generally risen due to the easing of trade tensions. For instance, the price of pure benzene increased to 5907.14 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 242.86 CNY/ton [51]. - The report also highlights that the price of MMA has increased due to supply reductions from maintenance activities, with the average price reaching 10360.71 CNY/ton [67]. Polyester Sector - The report mentions that the prices of PX, PTA, and MEG have risen significantly due to supply constraints and increased demand from downstream industries. The average price of PX is reported at 6119.88 CNY/ton, up 676.46 CNY/ton [84][88]. - The report notes that the polyester filament market has seen a significant increase in sales volume, driven by improved demand from downstream weaving enterprises [92]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical (+0.82%) and Hengli Petrochemical (+2.04%) over the past week [113]. - Over the past month, the stock price of Dongfang Shenghong has increased by 15.34%, indicating strong market performance [113].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term balance in supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] - The coal price is expected to stabilize and rise, with historical patterns suggesting a potential turning point in consumption by late May as the summer electricity demand season approaches [3][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 16, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 618 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [29] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.3 USD/ton, down 0.3 USD/ton week-on-week [29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1350 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 96.1%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week [3][47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 1.20 million tons/day (-0.39%), while coastal provinces saw an increase of 7.10 million tons/day (+4.09%) [3][48] - The chemical industry’s coal consumption decreased by 22.31 thousand tons/day (-3.11%) [11] Inventory Situation - As of May 15, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 337 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw a decrease of 26 thousand tons [48] - The available days of coal in inland provinces increased by 0.20 days, while it decreased by 0.80 days in coastal provinces [48] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a 1.65% increase in the coal sector index, outperforming the broader market [14] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others with stable operations and strong performance [12][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the environmental equipment sector is expected to recover driven by policy support, with specific focus on the integration of sewage treatment plants and networks [4][6] - The report indicates that the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for improved environmental quality and industrial green low-carbon development, which is likely to maintain high prosperity in energy-saving and environmental protection sectors [6][32] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 16, the environmental sector remained flat compared to the previous week, underperforming the broader market; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76% to 3367.46 [5][8] - The water governance sector increased by 0.23%, while the water service sector decreased by 0.29%; air governance rose by 2.10% [10] Industry Dynamics - On May 15, the Central Committee and the State Council released opinions on promoting urban renewal, emphasizing the acceleration of underground pipeline construction and the establishment of a unified operation and maintenance mechanism for sewage treatment plants [23][25] - The report notes that the national carbon emissions trading market has expanded to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, which is expected to boost the demand for carbon measurement and online monitoring systems [16][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that water and waste incineration sectors, as operational assets, are expected to see stable profit growth and improved cash flow, benefiting from market reforms in public utilities [6][32] - Key recommendations include companies such as Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [6][32]

Macro Perspective - Recent US Treasury yields are influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 36.8% probability of a cut in July 2025[3] - Domestic M2 growth in April 2025 was 8.0%, up from 7.0% in the previous month, while the M1-M2 differential decreased to -6.5% from -5.4%[10] Valuation Metrics - The absolute PETTM for the CSI Dividend Index is at the 99.60th percentile over the past three years, indicating a high valuation level[17] - The relative PETTM is at the 77.30th percentile, suggesting a decrease from the previous month's 88.38th percentile[21] Price and Volume Analysis - 64.68% of the CSI Dividend Index component stocks are above the six-month moving average, an increase from 52.14% a month ago, indicating improved price momentum[23] - The absolute trading volume is at the 57.41st percentile over the past three years, down from 72.90% a month ago, suggesting reduced trading activity[30] Fund Flows - The CSI Dividend ETF experienced a net outflow of 28.24 billion yuan this week, with a total net outflow of 53.09 billion yuan over the past month[36] - The exposure of equity mutual funds to dividend strategies has decreased from 0.45 in Q4 2024 to 0.37 in Q1 2025, indicating a reduction in allocation to dividend stocks[36] Summary Insights - The macro model suggests that the dividend style may underperform compared to growth style in the near future due to high valuation levels and reduced trading volume[44] - Long-term outlook remains positive for growth style as liquidity conditions improve with potential monetary and fiscal policy measures[44]

广东 136 号文衔接政策落地，4 月我国进口天然气量同比下降 6.1% 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 15666646523.tcy ● 本周市场表现：截至5月16日收盘，本周公用事业板块上涨0.1%，表现 劣于大盘。其中，电力板块上涨0.06%，燃气板块上涨0.23%。 ● 电力行业数据跟踪： ➢ 动力煤价格:秦港动力煤价格周环比下跌。截至5月16日，秦皇岛港动 力煤(Q5500)山西产市场价618元/吨，周环比下跌17元/吨。截至5月16 日，广州港印尼煤(Q5500)库提价702.12元/吨，周环比下跌7.23元/吨； 广州港澳洲煤(Q5500)库提价721.93元/吨，周环比下跌11.88元/吨。 ➢ 动力煤库存及电厂日耗：秦港动力煤库存周环比增加，沿海电厂日耗 周环比上升。截至5月16日，秦皇岛港煤炭库存760万吨，周环比增加7 万吨。截至5月15日，内陆17省煤炭库存8080.1万吨，较上周增加33.7 万吨，周环比上升0.42%；内陆17省电厂日耗为310.3万吨，较上周下降 1.2万吨 ...

样本建筑工地资金到位率创近 3 月高位，有望进一步支撑钢材需求 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [钢铁Table_StockAndRank] 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高 升 能源、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 能源、钢铁行业研究助理 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [样本建筑工地资金到位率创近 Table_Title] 3 月高位，有望进一步支 撑钢材需求 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 ...