—2025 年 11 月通胀数据点评 频率：每月 ❑ 风险提示：国内政策效果不及预期。 点评报告 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 通胀回升趋势不改 相关报告 1、《新质生产力相关产品出口 增速表现强劲—2025 年 11 月进 出口数据点评》2025-12-09 2、《明年政策积极程度将有所 变化—中央政治局会议解读》 2025-12-08 3、《固定资产投资增速或仍偏 弱 — — 宏 观 经 济 预 测 报 告 （2025 年 11 月）》2025-12-06 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 赵兴举 研究助理 zhaoxingju@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ CPI：11 月 CPI 环比-0.1%，同比+0.7%，CPI 同比大幅上涨主要由食品项贡 献，对 CPI 同比的影响由上月-0.54%转为+0.04%。结构上来看，1）寒潮、 降雨等天气因素导致蔬菜、鲜果市场供应偏紧，叠加运输及保鲜费用等系列成 本增加，共同推动 11 月鲜菜、鲜果价格上涨，叠加去年低基数因素，价格同 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][7]. Core Insights - The acquisition of 100% equity in Jinli Co., a leading player in the wet diaphragm sector, has been approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's performance in the lithium battery diaphragm market [1][7]. - The company has been focusing on high-end materials and traditional films since its entry into the lithium battery diaphragm sector in 2011, and the acquisition is seen as a strategic move to strengthen its position in the wet diaphragm market [1][11]. - The demand for lithium batteries has been growing, leading to a recovery in the supply-demand dynamics of diaphragms, which is expected to result in industry-wide profitability improvements [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to be 2,215 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year decline of 16%, followed by a slight increase of 1% in 2024 [2]. - Operating profit is expected to be 224 million yuan in 2023, with a significant year-on-year growth of 23%, but a decline of 26% is anticipated in 2024 [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 214 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 57%, but a decrease of 44% is expected in 2024 [2]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 55.2 in 2023, increasing to 98.6 in 2024 [2]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Jinli Co. is valued at 5.08 billion yuan, with 4.0 billion yuan paid in cash and 4.68 billion yuan in shares at an issue price of 3.81 yuan per share [11][12]. - The acquisition is expected to create synergies in technology, business, finance, and procurement, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the diaphragm market [31][7]. Market Position and Product Development - Jinli Co. is positioned as a major player in the wet diaphragm market, with a market share of 18% in China and 15.6% globally, ranking second in both markets [17]. - The company has successfully introduced a 5μm ultra-thin high-strength diaphragm into the product systems of major clients like CATL, achieving a domestic market share of 63% in this segment [28][17]. - The demand for 5μm ultra-thin high-strength diaphragms is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market penetration of over 20% by 2025 [47][28]. Industry Outlook - The wet diaphragm industry is anticipated to experience a recovery in profitability, driven by increasing demand for lithium batteries and limited capacity expansion among major players [32][33]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards thinner and stronger diaphragms, with the 5μm product expected to replace the 7μm and 9μm products in the market [47][28].

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 5%, with a recovery pattern characterized by "front low, back high" dynamics[12] - The first quarter is expected to show a growth of 4.7%, influenced by the ongoing decline in real estate investment and seasonal factors[28] - The second quarter is anticipated to stabilize at 4.9%, driven by new policy implementations and increased manufacturing investment[28] - The third quarter is forecasted to accelerate to 5.2%, with PPI expected to turn positive, enhancing industrial production[28] - The fourth quarter is projected to maintain a growth rate of 5.0%, supported by improved corporate profits and consumer spending[29] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 5%, driven by long-term policies and profit improvements in high-tech industries[37] - Real estate investment is projected to decline by 8%, indicating a continued natural clearing process in the market[13] - Infrastructure investment is forecasted to grow by 3%, reflecting a balance between debt management and development needs[13] Price Dynamics - CPI is predicted to rise to a central level of 0.5% in 2026, marking a reversal from near-zero growth in 2024-2025[8] - PPI is expected to turn positive in Q3 2026, with an end-of-year forecast of a 0.5% increase, signaling a significant improvement in upstream profitability[8] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales are projected to grow by approximately 4.2%, with a shift towards income distribution optimization and targeted subsidies[8] - Service consumption is anticipated to outpace goods consumption, driven by policy support and changing consumer preferences[8] Export and Import Outlook - Exports are expected to grow by 5%, supported by the U.S. inventory replenishment cycle and market diversification strategies[8] - Imports are projected to increase by 2.5%, driven by improved industrial profits and a stable RMB exchange rate[8]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Carbon Emission Intensity Deviation and Carbon Emission Intensity Coefficient - **Model Name**: Carbon Emission Intensity Deviation and Carbon Emission Intensity Coefficient - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to allocate carbon quotas based on the deviation of a company's carbon emission intensity from the industry average, incentivizing companies to reduce emissions. - **Model Construction Process**: - The carbon emission intensity deviation (X) is calculated as the difference between a company's unit product carbon emission and the industry average, divided by the industry average: $$ X = \frac{I - BP}{BP} $$ where \( I \) is the company's unit product carbon emission, and \( BP \) is the industry average. - The carbon emission intensity coefficient (α) is determined based on the deviation (X): $$ \alpha = \begin{cases} -3\% & \text{if } X \leq -20\% \\ 15\% \times X & \text{if } -20\% < X \leq 20\% \\ +3\% & \text{if } X > 20\% \end{cases} $$ - The quota amount (A) is calculated as: $$ A = E \times (1 + \alpha) $$ where \( E \) is the company's verified emissions for the year. - **Model Evaluation**: This model ensures that differences in emission control levels among companies are reflected in their quota allocations, providing positive incentives for emission reduction while maintaining overall quota stability.[8][9][11] Model Backtesting Results - **Carbon Emission Intensity Deviation and Carbon Emission Intensity Coefficient**: - The model's implementation is expected to significantly expand the coverage of the national carbon market, enhancing the price discovery function of carbon prices and reflecting marginal abatement costs more clearly.[12][13] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor 1: National Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Methodology - **Factor Name**: National Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Methodology - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to provide a quantifiable method for voluntary emission reduction projects, converting emission reductions into tradable environmental credits. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The methodology includes three key scenarios: offshore oilfield associated gas recovery, onshore gas field test gas recovery, and onshore oilfield low-gas-volume associated gas recovery. - Each scenario has specific mechanisms for emission reduction, monitoring, and accounting requirements. - For example, the offshore oilfield associated gas recovery scenario involves recovering gas that would otherwise be flared, converting it into usable products, and reducing methane emissions. - **Factor Evaluation**: This methodology provides clear technical specifications and market incentives for methane emission reduction projects in the oil and gas industry, supporting the achievement of methane control targets.[14][15] Factor Backtesting Results - **National Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Methodology**: - The implementation of this methodology is expected to lead to the initiation of more associated gas recovery projects, contributing to the achievement of China's dual carbon goals and supporting the green and low-carbon transition of the oil and gas industry.[14][15]

Core Insights - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance funds' stock investments is expected to release more incremental capital into the A-share market, potentially bringing in approximately 545 billion yuan in 2026, assuming a 15% growth in the balance of insurance fund utilization and an average stock investment ratio of 9.7% [1][3][9] - The regulatory measures since 2025 have systematically guided insurance funds into the market as "patient capital" through a combination of increasing upper limits, expanding pilot programs, optimizing long-term assessments, and finely tuning risk factors [3][8] Liquidity Analysis - As of September 2025, the balance of insurance fund utilization reached 37.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17%, contributing approximately 347.7 billion yuan in incremental funds from January to September 2025 [3][9] - The recent market liquidity indicators show a net inflow of funds in the secondary market, with a rise in financing balances and net purchases of 76.4 billion yuan [3][26] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank's recent operations included a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan, with short-term interest rates declining and long-term rates rising, indicating a mixed monetary policy environment [14][15] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has shown a decrease in trading activity, with a decline in the proportion of financing funds in A-share transactions to 11.0% [38] - The VIX index has decreased, reflecting an improvement in risk appetite in overseas markets [40] Sector Preferences - The sectors attracting significant net inflows include electronics, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, while sectors like banking and non-bank financials experienced net outflows [48][49] - The net buying activity in financing funds was notably high in machinery equipment (+31.6 billion yuan) and non-ferrous metals (+29.7 billion yuan) [48][49] Individual Stock Preferences - The stocks with the highest net purchases included C Moer-U (+17.0 billion yuan) and Tianfu Communication (+17.0 billion yuan), while the highest net sales were seen in Zhongji Xuchuang (-14.7 billion yuan) and Dongshan Precision (-9.1 billion yuan) [50]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Overview - 2025 marks a critical turning point as broad fiscal budget expenditures return to an expansionary cycle, with significant adjustments made to increase fiscal resources while lowering revenue targets[6] - The broad fiscal deficit rate in 2025 reaches 8.4%, surpassing the historical high of 8.1% set in 2020[7] - The proportion of total fiscal expenditure to GDP has rebounded for the first time since 2020, indicating the start of a new expenditure expansion cycle[15] Group 2: Social Spending and Impact - Actual spending on social welfare areas reached a record high in recent years, with 1-10 months' social-related expenditure accounting for 40.6% of total spending, the highest in five years[20] - In the 2025 budget, education spending accounts for 15.0%, social security and employment for 14.8%, and health spending for 7.2%, reflecting a slight increase in focus on social welfare[19] Group 3: Local Government Debt and Revenue - Local government revenue has achieved positive growth for the second consecutive year, with a 2.1% increase in local fiscal revenue despite a decline in non-tax revenue growth[30] - Debt resolution policies have significantly reduced local government debt burdens, with early repayment of high-interest debts reaching 24.48 billion yuan, the highest in recent years[33] Group 4: Investment Support and Challenges - Fiscal support for investment has weakened compared to 2024, with infrastructure-related spending growth remaining low and focused primarily on social welfare[38] - The issuance of special bonds has slowed in the second half of 2025, with a total of 4.5 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, compared to 4.0 trillion yuan in the same period last year[39] Group 5: Execution and Policy Implementation - The pace of fiscal spending has slowed, with the budget execution rate in 2025 being lower than in previous years, indicating a cautious approach to fiscal policy execution[44] - Key policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as pension increases and birth subsidies, have been delayed, limiting their effectiveness in stimulating economic growth[52]

机制电价竞价结果加速落地，"41+9"打造氢能新动力 环保公用事业行业周报（2025/12/07） 周期/环保及公用事业 本周环保板块下跌，公用事业板块上涨。环保（申万）行业指数下跌 0.15%， 公用事业（申万）行业指数上涨 0.12%，相对市场整体涨跌幅较小。 ❑ 风险提示：政策落实低于预期、煤炭及硅料价格下跌、项目进展低于预期、 国际政治局势变化的风险等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 242 | 4.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4009.2 | 3.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3711.5 | 3.9 | 证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 09 日 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 09 日 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -4.2 12.9 15.1 相对表现 -3.0 -6.4 -1.2 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 Nov/25 (%) 环保及公用事业 沪深300 相关报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a shift in the macroeconomic policy tone, maintaining a positive stance while introducing new terms such as "increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts" [2][3] - The report indicates that fiscal and monetary policies will continue to be "more proactive" and "moderately loose," with specific policy measures to be clarified in future central economic work meetings [2][3] - The prioritization of risk mitigation has been moved to the last item in the agenda, suggesting that the current overall risk is relatively controllable, and future efforts will focus on "active and prudent" risk resolution [2][3] Group 2 - The report notes that the phrase "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets" was not reiterated in the latest meeting, indicating a potential shift in focus towards broader economic stability rather than specific market interventions [2][3] - It suggests that the capital market's performance in the coming year will depend on further detailed arrangements from the upcoming central economic work meeting, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook [2][3] - Historical data indicates that December has historically favored large-cap stocks, which may be relevant for investment strategies moving forward [2][3]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 12 月 8 日 中法深化气候合作，国际 ESG 标准与监管加速落地 ——ESG 市场观察周报（20251207） 1、要闻速览：中法深化气候合作，国内外 ESG 监管持续细化 国内动态方面，中法两国发表联合声明，将在应对气候变化、生物多样性保 护、可再生能源及核电等多领域深化协作，共同支持全球治理机制；工信部部署"十 五五"工业绿色低碳规划，强调加快零碳工厂建设及技术装备升级；国家发改委发布 新版基础设施 REITs 行业清单，将租赁住房、消费基础设施、清洁能源及储能等多 个领域纳入发行范围，进一步拓宽绿色资产盘活渠道。 国际动态方面，纽约市审计长建议撤出对贝莱德等三家资管机构的委托，称其 脱碳计划未达城市养老金要求；欧洲财务报告咨询组织发布简化版 ESRS，大幅降 低企业信息披露负担；英国金融行为监管局拟出台 ESG 评级新规，提升评级透明度 和可靠性；英国广告标准局叫停耐克等品牌涉"环保"误导广告；国际机构 PCAF 发 布新版融资排放核算标准，完善金融机构碳排放计量框架。 2、市场动向：ESG 指数表现分化，绿色转型资金短期承压 本周国内 ESG 指数走势分化 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 挂牌价调涨占比：截至 2025 年 11 月，12 个样本城市挂牌价调涨房源占比从 10 月的 5.5%下降 0.1 PCT 至 5.4%，同比降幅较 10 月收窄 7.0 PCT 至-48.6%。 周观点：（一）行业基本面下政策的边际变化可能以及针对未来的压力测试依 然是资本市场关注的要点；（二）判断净租金回报率与按揭利率之差收窄是推 动新房及二手房的合计总需求筑底的关键观察点；重视在供应缩量预期、供给 品质优化以及购房者画像显著分化推动下，新房市场供需环境较二手房更早出 现改善的特征；（三）相较于"博弈"基本面和政策，围绕合理估值区间做投 资或更可取。（1）从考虑潜在减值压力调整后的 PB 估值水平来看，当前板块 调整后 PB 约 1.2 倍，而更"纯粹"的销售前 5 重点房企调整后 PB 平均约 0.7 倍；（2）房地产板块在 24 年 9-10 月反弹后一度回调过半，近期板块有所反 弹但距离上一轮反弹高点仍有约 15%空间，而部分股票价格仍在相对低位，个 别标的当前股价距离前期反弹高点空间超 50%；（四）关注全国性和区域性房 企风险溢 ...