Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][7][3] Core Views - The management team is stable, and a performance culture is enhancing employee execution capabilities. The company emphasizes a self-driven approach during external fluctuations, viewing them as opportunities for growth [7] - The North China market is performing exceptionally well, with a significant increase in the number of distribution stores. The company plans to expand its market share through key projects and a robust distribution strategy [7] - Marketing strategies focus on emotional connections with consumers, with plans to introduce low-alcohol products and enhance new retail channels [7] - The company is committed to strict inventory control and cautious, sustained investment in brand building and channel expansion [7] - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 2.87, 3.02, and 3.21, respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 14x for 2025 [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,953 million in 2023 to 5,810 million in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 4% [2][15] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 1,698 million in 2023 to 2,120 million in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trend [2][15] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 1,269 million in 2023 to 1,563 million in 2027, with a consistent growth rate [2][15] - The company’s current share price is 41.02 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 20 billion yuan [3][3] Key Financial Ratios - The projected ROE is expected to decline from 32.3% in 2023 to 20.9% in 2027, indicating a gradual decrease in return on equity [16] - The asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 47.8% in 2023 to 34.3% in 2027, suggesting improved financial stability [16] - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 25.6% in 2023 to 26.9% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [16]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the emerging consumer attributes of the gaming industry, highlighting that gaming and media are among the best new consumption sectors, as they provide joy and passion without engaging in price wars [1][2] - The gaming industry has seen a significant increase in revenue, with Giant Network's new game "Original Journey" achieving a contract liability growth of 20.13% year-on-year, indicating strong future revenue potential [2] - The report notes that the media industry has performed well, with a 1.38% increase in the past week and a 9.47% increase year-to-date, ranking it fourth among all sectors [1][11] Group 2 - The gaming sector is experiencing a resurgence in user engagement, with "Ball Battle" achieving record-high monthly revenue and user retention rates, while "Super Sus" continues to expand its market presence [2][30] - The report highlights the importance of AI applications in gaming, with collaborations between Giant Network and Alibaba Cloud focusing on enhancing gaming experiences through AI technology [7] - The report indicates that the cultural export of Chinese media is just beginning, with various successful projects like "Nezha 2" and "Genshin Impact" marking the rise of China's cultural soft power [1][2] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the performance of the film and television sectors, noting that the top films in the box office are predominantly Chinese, reflecting a strong domestic market [18][19] - The television drama "潜渊" has achieved the highest ratings on Hunan TV, indicating a competitive landscape in the television sector [22] - The report also highlights the top-performing online variety shows, with "哈哈哈哈哈哈第五季" leading the rankings, showcasing the popularity of online content [29] Group 4 - The gaming market is dominated by Tencent, with five of its games in the top ten of the iOS sales rankings, underscoring its strong market position [30] - The report mentions the significant growth in the book sector, with various titles achieving high sales, indicating a robust literary market [33]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 06 月 19 日 平淡 FOMC 之外的两条线索 —6 月美联储议息会议点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 2025 年 6 月 18 日，美联储召开议息会议，维持联邦基金目标 利率区 4.25%-4.50%不变，缩表节奏保持不变。 总体来看，本次会议增量信息较少，会议声明和演讲稿绝大多数措辞延续 5 月 的内容，答记者问鲍威尔多次暗示美联储将在通胀充分反映关税后再做决策， 结合 SEP 下调增长预期、上调通胀和失业率预期，美联储对滞胀风险的前瞻 判断是迟迟不肯降息的原因。由于点阵图仍给出年内两次降息预期，但美联储 内部分歧较大。往后看，中东局势和关税同时升级的概率不高，若中东局势继 续升级推高油价带动非核心通胀上升，则关税政策将进一步缓和且缓解核心通 胀压力，年内降息确属大概率，变数在于降息次数是否符合两次的预期。 资产方面，若美国对非美关税豁免延长，叠加财政法案仍在积极推进，下半年 美股仍看新高。由于 7 月会议可获得的增量数据依然较少，货币政策可能不是 未来一段时间资产定价的重心，直到 8 月下旬全球央行会议和 9 月中旬议息会 议。关注两条线索： 第一，中 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 06 月 18 日 5 月社零同比增幅扩大，集成电路产量同比增幅扩大 ——行业景气观察（0618） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在资源品、信息技术和部分中游制造领域。上游资源 品中，原油价格上涨，金属库存多数下行；中游制造领域，5 月工业机器人产量 三个月滚动同比增幅扩大，主要企业工程机械销售同比多数放缓。信息技术中， 存储器价格上涨，集成电路产量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，空冰 洗彩四周滚动零售额同比增幅扩大。5 月社零同比超预期，扩消费政策效应持续 显现。推荐景气较高或有改善的存储器、消费电子、有色、自动化设备、石化等。 ❑【本周关注】5 月社会消费品零售总额当月同比增幅扩大，且超市场预期，扩大 消费政策效应持续显现，两年复合增速来看，相比 1-4 月也有所扩大。结构上， 政策驱动作用明显：1）必选消费多数改善，或受益于假日催化，团圆宴请需求回 暖，粮油食品、烟酒零售同比增幅扩大，服装鞋帽等受益于大促消费也有所改善； 2）"以旧换新"加力扩围的效果显著，家电零售持续回暖，通讯器材零售同比增 幅扩大，两者仍是拉动 5 月限额以上社零同比增长的重要领域；3） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly economic index rebounded. The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index of WEI decreased, while the demand sub - index and the supply - demand gap increased [1]. - Production declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production and the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate dropped slightly, while the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased [1]. - High - frequency infrastructure indicators declined. The cement shipping rate and cement mill operating rate decreased, while the asphalt plant operating rate increased [1]. - The decline in commercial housing sales narrowed. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities improved, but the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased [2]. - Consumption rebounded. The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars increased significantly, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen also increased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office and domestic flight execution numbers decreased [2]. - Exports rebounded. South Korea's export year - on - year in early June increased, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) also improved [2]. - Pork prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork decreased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased [3]. - Industrial product prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index and Brent crude oil spot price increased slightly, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price, Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price, and cement price index decreased [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the WEI demand sub - index was 5.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the supply - demand gap was 1.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was - 6.1%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires was 78.0%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants was - 2.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 41.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The cement mill operating rate was 39.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The asphalt plant operating rate was 31.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 4.7%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 10.2%, down 11.5 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars was 19.0%, up 13.0 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 21.2%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 2.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 1.4%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.6 Exports - South Korea's export year - on - year in early June was 5.4%, up 5.3 percentage points from late May. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was - 35.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was - 18.3%, up 7.0 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was - 1.6%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was - 9.6%, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 3.6%, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous value [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 11.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Brent crude oil spot price was - 16.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price was - 14.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price was - 30.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 1.5%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous value [3].

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 06 月 17 日 融资资金延续净流入，政府债券贡献社融主要增量 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0617） 5 月信贷数据主要由政府贡献边际增量，居民端与企业端表现较为平淡。资金 面来看，上周二级市场可跟踪资金小幅净流出，ETF 持续净流出，融资资金保 持净流入。往后看，即将进入半年报业绩预披露窗口，偏质量及权重风格有望 继续占优。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场 SCP 范式研究之一》， 2017 年 10 月 3. 《香港利率位于极低水平，融 资资金重回净流入——金融市场 流动性与监管动态周报（0610）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 11.55↓ | | ETF 净申购 | -149.39↓ | | 融资净买入 | 80.22↑ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | 624.10↑ | | IPO ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the building materials industry [2] Core Views - The real estate chain is stabilizing due to continued policy support, and industrial transformation is aiding fundamental recovery [1] - The cement market is experiencing weak demand and price fluctuations, while the float glass market is seeing price declines and weak shipments [1][12][13] - The consumption building materials sector is benefiting from ongoing "good housing" construction initiatives, with leading companies in sub-sectors maintaining their advantages [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Core Views - Cement Industry: Demand remains poor, with prices continuing to decline. The national average cement price fell by 0.9% week-on-week, with significant price drops in regions like North China and South China [12][22] - Float Glass Industry: Prices are declining, with the national average price at 1200 RMB/ton, down 7.14 RMB/ton from the previous week. The market is facing weak demand and cautious purchasing behavior [13] - Fiberglass Industry: The price of non-alkali roving remains stable, while electronic yarn prices are seeing slight increases due to tight supply [14] - Consumption Building Materials: The government is emphasizing affordable housing and youth apartment supply, which is expected to boost demand for consumption building materials [15][16] 2. Industry Dynamics - Macro: The e-commerce logistics index in May rose to 111.6 points, indicating a steady increase in supply and demand [20] - Real Estate: Policies are being implemented to enhance community services and support flexible employment in housing funds [20] - Infrastructure: Investment in railway and civil aviation construction is expected to grow, with significant projects planned for unconventional water development [21] 3. Recommended Stocks - Weixing New Materials: Transitioning to a system integration service provider with a focus on risk control and sustainable growth [17] - Mona Lisa: Aiming for high-end market positioning with continuous improvement in operational quality [18] - Keshun Co.: Expected recovery in profitability as the waterproofing industry consolidates [19] - North New Materials: Expanding globally with a focus on gypsum board and related products [19] - Dongpeng Holdings: Diversifying product offerings to meet comprehensive consumer needs [19]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 06 月 17 日 低估值叠加优异基本面，港股非银标的彰显配置价值 ——广发中证港股通非银 ETF 投资价值分析 在相关政策引领提振下，自 2024 年 9 月以来资本交易市场相对活跃，广泛地 利好了保险企业、证券公司和交易所的相关业务。其中，保险业除了在资产端 受益于资本市场以外，其负债端业务近年也保持稳中有进的增长态势。结合香 港市场部分个股的稀缺性，港股通之中的非银行金融股票呈现出一定的投资价 值。广发中证港股通非银 ETF（513750.OF），通过紧密跟踪港股通非银指 数，可一键式配置香港上市的非银行金融标的，值得投资者关注。 专题报告 ❑ 在保险行业的负债端，长期来看，随着人口老龄化趋势的发展以及保险配 置理念深入人心，国内的保险市场总量维持着稳步增长。短期来看，寿险 和产险保费也分别在寿险需求高增和新能源车快速发展的催化下维持着有 效增长。而在资产端，当前市场对关税摩擦的极度悲观预期已经修复，对 应全球受损贸易链条正在修复，资本市场风险偏好呈现短期回升。 ❑ 此外，自 2024 年 9 月以来，资本交易相对活跃，港交所近 3 个月的成交 额与去年同比增长 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 06 月 17 日 水星家纺（603365.SH） 线上增长提速，"深睡枕"及"雪糕被"持续放量 消费品/轻工纺服 家纺龙头销售表现和地产销售逐渐弱化，消费者更注重产品功能升级，日常更 换需求逐渐占据主导。水星家纺坚持爆品运营模式，营销打法升级，今年以来 线上呈现较快增长，人体工学枕和雪糕被热销。当前市值对应 25PE13X，首次 覆盖给予"强烈推荐"评级。 | 财务数据与估值 | | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 4211 | 4193 | 4637 | 5146 | 5715 | | 同比增长 | 15% | -0% | 11% | 11% | 11% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 407 | 426 | 485 | 551 | 630 | | 同比增长 | 38% | 5% | 14% | 14% | 14% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 379 | 367 | 416 | ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 06 月 16 日 政策驱动特征明显 —2025 年 5 月经济数据点评 频率：每月 事件：5 月规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 5.8%，全国固定资产投资累计同 比增长 3.7%，社零当月增速为 6.4%；除汽车以外的消费品零售额 37316 亿 元，增长 7.0%。 点评报告 相关报告 ❑ 工业增加值：结构持续优化但增速边际放缓，当前工业增长仍依赖政策刺 激，民间投资和消费内需尚未充分释放。 ❑ 5 月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，环比增长 0.61%，1-5 月累 计增速为 6.3%，高于市场预期，显示工业生产韧性较强。分行业看，装 备制造业贡献仍然突出，装备制造业增加值同比增长 9.0%，对工业增长 贡献率达 54.3%，占全部规模以上工业的比重为 36.7%，已连续 27 个月 保持在 30%以上。其中，汽车、铁路船舶、电气机械、计算机和电子设备 行业表现亮眼，分别收录 11.6%、14.6%、11%和 10.2%。统计局数据显 示，高技术制造业增速回落，收录 8.6%，较 4 月回落 1.4 个百分点，主 因高基数效应和政策拉动力度边际减弱 ...