证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 关税问题再次升级，短期如有调整带来买入良机 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 由于特朗普关税威胁，美股大跌，工业金属价格本周大涨，周五大幅回落。本 周贵金属冲高之后横盘，周五冲高。4 月美国关税超预期，市场经历过压力测 试，预计本次对工业金属压力相对可控。我们认为以铜为代表的有色金属大叙 事不改，短期调整是加仓的机会。周四连发四文全方位升级稀土出口管制，看 好稀土的战略地位提升。我们持续看好有色资源股，调整买入。重点关注铜金 银铝钴稀土钨锑镍铀等品种。此外，关注科技成长相关新材料标的。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 236 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 6038.2 | 5.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 5646.1 | 5.9 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 7.4 | 59.4 | 62.2 | | 相对表现 | 3.6 | 35.8 | 46.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the transportation industry, highlighting potential rebound opportunities in various sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of shipping rates post-holiday, the impact of US-China tariff disputes on shipping prices, and the potential for price recovery in the aviation sector due to increased travel demand [1][14]. - It identifies key investment opportunities in infrastructure and logistics, particularly in companies with attractive dividend yields and stable earnings [16][18]. Shipping - Post-holiday shipping rates have shown recovery, with the SCFI for the US East route increasing by 2.8% to $2452/FEU, and the European route rising by 10% to $1068/TEU [12]. - The report notes that the US-China tariff disputes are causing short-term fluctuations in shipping rates, particularly affecting oil tankers [14]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy due to expected benefits from these market dynamics [14]. Infrastructure - The report indicates that highway stocks have fallen to a dividend yield of over 5%, suggesting potential for a rebound if market sentiment shifts [16]. - Weekly data shows a 27.6% decrease in truck traffic, while rail freight increased by 0.95% [15][16]. - Key recommended stocks include China Merchants Highway, Anhui Expressway, and Qingdao Port [16]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a stable growth rate, with a 12.3% year-on-year increase in business volume in August 2025 [17]. - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy that is expected to ease price competition and improve valuations in the sector [18]. - Recommended stocks include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, with a focus on price performance during the peak season [18]. Aviation - The aviation sector is seeing a recovery in passenger numbers, with a 3.9% year-on-year increase during the holiday period [19]. - The report suggests that the low base effect in Q4 could lead to price recovery opportunities for airlines [19]. - Recommended airlines include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [19]. Logistics - The logistics sector is showing signs of improvement, with a slight increase in cross-border transport volumes and stable short-haul freight rates [21]. - The report notes that the logistics market is benefiting from increased demand and improved operational efficiencies [21].

Group 1 - The report highlights the long-term allocation value of Hong Kong-listed central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dividend assets, which have shown stable performance amid global economic uncertainties and recent tariff conflicts [1][7][19] - As of October 10, 2025, the returns of major indices over the past two years are as follows: Hang Seng Index at 45.85%, Hang Seng Tech at 54.03%, Hang Seng High Dividend at 51.35%, and the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index at 31.15% [8][9][19] - The report indicates that dividend assets have lower volatility and stronger stability compared to other indices during market fluctuations, particularly during the recent tariff shocks [11][19] Group 2 - The trading congestion of Hong Kong SOE dividend assets has increased, yet they remain relatively undervalued, offering high investment value [19][45] - The dividend yield of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index is 6.07%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield by 4.22 percentage points [25][27] - The report notes that the relative attractiveness of dividend assets has improved due to declining bond yields, with the yield ratio of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index to the 10-year government bond yield reaching 3.29 as of October 10, 2025 [26][27] Group 3 - As of October 10, 2025, the total market capitalization of Hong Kong-listed SOEs is 13.5 trillion HKD, accounting for 17% of the overall market [35][36] - The report details that the H-share SOE PE (TTM) averages are 4.93, with a market-weighted average of 9.38, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the overall Hong Kong market [45][51] - The report also highlights that the dividend yield of Hong Kong SOEs is generally higher than that of A-shares, with a significant contribution from state-owned enterprises [8][9][69]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 10 月 12 日 利率价量择时信号维持看多 ——利率市场趋势定量跟踪 20251011 利率市场结构变化 - 10 年期国债到期收益率录得 1.82%，相对上周下降 3.99BP。当前 利率水平、期限和凸性结构读数分别为 1.63%、0.45%、-0.03%， 从均值回归视角看，目前处于水平结构点位偏低、期限结构点位 中性偏低、凸性结构点位较低的状态。 利率价量周期择时信号：5 年期看多、10 年期看多、30 年期看多 美债价量周期择时信号：看多 - 基于美国市场 10 年期国债 YTM 数据判断的多周期择时信号为： 长周期向上突破、中周期向下突破、短周期向下突破。综合来看， 当前合计下行突破 2 票、上行突破 1 票，最终信号的综合评分结果 为看多。 国内利率价量多周期择时策略表现 - 自 2024 年底以来，基于 5/10/30 年期国债 YTM 价量趋势的交易策 略年化收益率分别为 1.86%、2.35%、2.98%，最大回撤为 0.79%、 1.06%、1.87%，收益回撤比为 3.15、4.07、3.26，相对业绩基准的 超额收益率为 0.86%、1.56 ...

Core Insights - The recent escalation of the US-China supply chain and tariff conflict is a continuation of trade frictions since 2018, and it is not a new negative factor for the A-share market. Historical experience shows that such shocks often create phase low points and investment opportunities [2][6][10] - Compared to the tariff shock in April this year, the current market has more favorable conditions, including investor expectations of tariff threats and stronger market resilience due to key resistance levels being surpassed [4][10] - Short-term adjustments are inevitable, but the market still shows resilience, with the potential for new highs after the shock ends. This adjustment may serve as an opportunity to optimize the investment structure [2][10] Industry and Company Analysis - The classic response strategy to the US-China conflict emphasizes self-sufficiency and domestic circulation, suggesting a focus on sectors with relatively low positions and marginal improvements, such as military industry, semiconductors, software self-sufficiency, new consumption, and non-ferrous metals [2][10] - The current market sentiment is bolstered by a stronger willingness of residents to invest, increased protective actions from important institutional investors, and accelerated trends in new industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which provide long-term value during corrections [4][10] - The average guarantee ratio in the market has significantly improved from 261% in April to 287%, enhancing the market's ability to withstand downturns despite a larger scale of financing [4][9][10] - The recent market dynamics indicate that sectors such as gold, copper, cobalt, photovoltaic batteries, lithium battery equipment, wind power, semiconductors, and automotive are experiencing improvements or high levels of prosperity [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [4][29]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall decline of 1.5% during the week of October 5 to October 11, 2025, with various segments showing mixed performance [2][10]. - New energy vehicle sales reached record highs in September, with Leap Motor delivering over 60,000 units, marking a significant milestone for the industry [21]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, announced adjustments to the technical requirements for the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles for 2026-2027 [22]. Market Performance Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.9% during the same period [2][8]. - The automotive sector's secondary segments mostly declined, with the automotive services sector showing a notable increase of 1.7% [10]. Individual Stock Performance - Among automotive stocks, Meili Technology saw the highest increase at 18.9%, while Mingxin Xuteng experienced the largest decline at 18.5% [3][12]. - Key covered stocks showed a mixed performance, with Kabeiyi rising by 13.2% and Hengshuai falling by 10.6% [15]. Recent Industry Developments - BYD announced the production of its 14 millionth new energy vehicle, marking a significant milestone in its global expansion [23]. - Changan Avita completed the payment for the acquisition of a 10% stake in Huawei's subsidiary, marking the completion of the transaction [24]. - Tesla's Q3 vehicle deliveries increased by 7.4% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations, with a total of 497,099 vehicles delivered [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile [7]. - For commercial vehicles, it suggests investing in Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Weichai Power [7].

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 10 月 11 日 A 股上涨，量化基金表现较好，指增录得正超额 量化基金周度跟踪（20250927-20251010） 本报告重点聚焦量化基金市场表现，总结主要指数和量化基金业绩表现、不同 类型公募量化基金整体表现和业绩分布，以及收益表现较优的量化基金，供投 资者参考。 ❑市场整体表现： 本期（9 月 27 日-10 月 10 日，下同）A 股全面上涨，量化基金普遍表现较 好，指增超额回升。 ❑主要指数表现： A 股全面上涨，其中沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 本期收益率分别为 1.47%、2.17%、1.84%。 ❑各类基金表现： 量化基金普遍表现较好，指增超额回升。主动量化平均涨 1.43%；超额回 升，沪深 300 指增、中证 500 指增、中证 1000 指增分别录得 0.16%、0.19% 和 0.25%的正超额；市场中性平均上涨 0.51%。 ❑风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述，并 不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 从指数方面来看，A 股全面上涨，其中沪深 300、中证 500、中证 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 10 月 11 日 如何理解中美摩擦升级？ —特朗普对华威胁关税点评 事件：美东时间 10 月 10 日，特朗普发布社交媒体，表达对稀土出口管制的强 烈不满，宣布自 11 月 1 日起对中国额外征收 100%的关税，并对"所有关键软 件"实施出口管制。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《制造业 PMI 略逊于往年季 节性———2025 年 9 月 PMI 点 评》2025-10-01 2、《前瞻"十五五"规划—中 央政治局会议点评》2025-09-30 3、《企业盈利增速转正——— 2025 年 8 月工业企业利润分 析》2025-09-27 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 王泺宾 S1090523070007 wangluobin@cmschina.com.cn 张玉书 研究助理 zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn 宏观点评报告 枢，特朗普乐见其成，一旦如此市场全球风险偏好又将改善，调整充分即 是机会。 ❑ 五、若 100%关税落地，对国内出口和美国通胀的影响？参考我们在 2025 年 ...

本报告重点聚焦 ETF 基金市场表现，总结过去一周 ETF 基金市场、不同热门 细分类型 ETF 基金、创新主题及细分行业 ETF 基金的业绩表现和资金流动， 供投资者参考。 ❑ 市场表现： 本周（9 月 29 日-10 月 10 日）股票 ETF 走势分化。其中，沪港深主题 ETF 和 A 股周期 ETF 涨幅较高，规模以上基金平均上涨 10.42%、8.30%。相 反，沪港深行业 ETF 和港股消费 ETF 小幅下跌，规模以上基金分别平均下 跌 1.38%、1.00%。 ❑ 资金流动： 资金大幅流入 A 股 TMT ETF 和 A 股中游制造 ETF，全周资金分别净流入 163.41 亿元、144.10 亿元。相反，A 股主题 ETF 和港股宽基 ETF 出现小 幅资金流出，全周资金分别净流出 11.60 亿元、6.97 亿元。 ❑ 风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述， 并不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 季燕妮 S1090525040002 jiyanni@cmsc ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is expected to favor large-cap stocks in October, with growth stocks likely to continue outperforming due to historical trends and current market conditions [1][3][11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" policy expectations are anticipated to maintain high market risk appetite, contributing to the performance of high-end manufacturing and AI industry chains [1][3][11] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to show significant improvements, particularly in growth-oriented sectors [1][3][11] Group 2 - External liquidity conditions are improving, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October, which may benefit large-cap and leading stocks [1][3][11] - The report highlights that ETFs are becoming a significant source of incremental capital, favoring the performance of leading and mid-to-large-cap stocks [1][3][11] - Historical data shows that large-cap styles have a higher probability of outperforming in October and the fourth quarter, with technology growth expected to remain strong [12][19][23] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and upcoming economic data releases, which could impact market sentiment [6][26][27] - The analysis of past performance indicates that financial and TMT sectors tend to perform well in the fourth quarter, with a notable focus on high-end manufacturing and technology [19][23][24] - The report suggests that the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" meeting will influence market dynamics, with a focus on cyclical sectors and high-tech manufacturing [26][28]