舍得酒业(600702) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 14 日 短期业绩承压，股权激励提振信心 ——舍得酒业更新报告 投资要点 ❑ 产品结构承压，关注政商务消费需求恢复 1 ）利润端：25Q1 白酒收入 14.42 亿元，同比-26.5%，或因渠道库存消化，蓄力 后续健康发展。25Q1 公司毛利率/净利率同比-4.8/ -4.2pcts 至 69.4%/21.9%。 25Q1 管理费用率同比-0.01pct 至 7.89%，未来有望继续下降。 销售费用率同比 +3.03pct 至 19.36% ，我们认为或因春节期间市场费用投放力度加大。 2）资产端：应收账款及票据 4.95 亿元（同比-19%，下同），存货 53.51 亿元 （+18%），应付票据及账款 12.59 亿元（+22%），合同负债 2.06 亿（-12%），24 年末为 1.65 亿元。 3）现金流：销售收现 16.23 亿（-15%），经营性净现金流为 2.24 亿（+107%）。 ❑ 品味舍得短期承压，电商渠道增速较快 1）分产品：25Q1 中高档酒/普通酒实现收入 12.34 亿元/2.08 亿元，同比- 28.46%/-12.59 ...

❑ 催化剂：白酒需求恢复超预期；宴席恢复表现超预期；批价持续上行。 "双品牌"战略，稳中有进 ——水井坊更新报告 投资要点 ❑ 核心产品放量带动产品结构升级，确立"双子星"战略。 1）分产品：24 年高档酒/中档酒收入 47.64 亿元/2.64 亿元，分别同比 +1.99%/+28.78%。25Q1 高档酒/中档酒收入 8.51 亿元/0.49 亿元，分别同比 +6.71%/-34.21%。臻酿八号表现较优，产品结构持续升级。 2）分市场：24 年公司国内/国外分别实现收入 49.70/0.58 亿元，同比 +2.79%/+44.60%。24 年国内净增加经销商 6 家至 56 家，国外经销商 5 家。25Q1 国内收入 8.98 亿元（+4.30%），国外 0.02 亿元（-84.35%） ❑ 销售费用收缩，渠道持续管理精细化提升。 1）24 年毛/净利率同比-0.4/+0.09pct 至 82.76%/25.71%，25Q1 毛/净利率同比 +1.5/-0.12pct 至 81.97%/19.84%。 2）24 年销售/管理费用率同比-0.13/+0.89pct 至 25.06%/8.20%，25Q1 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Bank self-operated investments will continue to be a significant source of funds for the bond market, with total asset growth for listed banks in 2024 at 7.87% for state-owned banks, 4.87% for joint-stock banks, 10.75% for city commercial banks, and 6.05% for rural commercial banks[12][14]. - The investment proportion in the bond market is expected to increase as banks adjust strategies to "invest to supplement credit," with state-owned banks' investment growth reaching 16.25% in 2024, the highest in five years[12][14]. Group 2: Credit Quality and Risks - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks in 2024 is 1.23%, 1.22%, 1.76%, and 2.80% respectively, indicating a slight increase in city commercial banks' NPLs due to aggressive expansion strategies[20][21]. - Personal retail loan quality is showing signs of deterioration, with banks like Bohai Bank and Guizhou Bank reporting increases in NPL ratios by over 1 percentage point in 2024[22]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The proportion of FVOCI accounts has significantly increased, with state-owned banks at 27.03%, joint-stock banks at 25.12%, city commercial banks at 26.87%, and rural commercial banks at 41.94%, reflecting a shift towards optimizing investment structures to benefit from bond market conditions[32]. - The reliance on bond market investments is increasing, with the investment/total asset ratios for state-owned, joint-stock, city commercial, and rural commercial banks at 28.73%, 30.90%, 38.44%, and 35.09% respectively in 2024[31]. Group 4: Liability Management - The cost of liabilities remains rigid, with the trend of increasing fixed-term deposits continuing, particularly in city commercial banks where the proportion of fixed-term deposits increased by 4.6 percentage points[42][43]. - The deposit structure is shifting towards "strong retail, weak corporate," with personal deposits for state-owned banks at 59.86%, joint-stock banks at 33.54%, city commercial banks at 46.10%, and rural commercial banks at 68.99%[42].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by significant increases in installed capacity and ongoing domestic substitution, alongside international expansion opportunities [1][2] - The company achieved a revenue of 3.013 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.48%, with a notable revenue of 1.143 billion yuan in Q4, reflecting a 61.64% year-on-year growth [1] - The company anticipates a revenue of 4.488 billion yuan in 2025, with projected growth rates of 15.78%, 18.10%, and 16.75% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's gene sequencing business generated revenue of 2.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.47%, with instrument revenue at 960 million yuan (up 6.92%) and reagent revenue at 1.373 billion yuan (up 1.43%) [2] - The company installed nearly 1,270 new units in 2024, marking a historical high and a 49% increase from the previous year [2] - The company reported a net profit of -600.83 million yuan in 2024, with expectations of a gradual return to profitability by 2027 [5][12] Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from the China region was 1.61 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, while the Asia-Pacific region saw a decline of 30% to 230 million yuan [3] - The Americas region achieved revenue of 170 million yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, indicating strong performance in certain markets despite challenges in others [3] Research and Development - The company maintained high R&D investment of 746 million yuan in 2024, representing 24.8% of revenue, aimed at enhancing product competitiveness [4] - The company is focusing on new product launches, including the portable low-throughput sequencer E25 and the desktop mid-throughput sequencer G99, which are expected to drive market share growth [4] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 3.488 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of -272 million yuan, indicating a path towards recovery and growth [5][12] - The ongoing development of spatial sequencing and single-molecule sequencing technologies is expected to open new market opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to continue its growth driven by ongoing innovation and internationalization efforts [1][5] - The company reported a rapid profit growth and improved cash flow for 2024, with operating revenue reaching 41.067 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 0.80% [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 2.770 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 16.08% year-over-year, with a non-GAAP net profit of 2.314 billion yuan, up 15.10% [2] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 41.067 billion yuan, with innovative products contributing to steady growth [1] - Operating cash flow improved to 4.477 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 31.13% [1] Business Segmentation - The pharmaceutical segment generated revenue of 28.924 billion yuan in 2024, with a segment profit of 3.250 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 65.73% [3] - The medical devices and diagnostics segment reported revenue of 4.323 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.53% year-over-year, primarily due to declining COVID-related product sales [3] - The healthcare services segment achieved revenue of 7.647 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 14.61%, although it still reported a segment loss of 315 million yuan [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain high R&D investment, with total R&D expenditure reaching 5.554 billion yuan in 2024, representing 16.98% of pharmaceutical revenue [5] - The company is advancing its internationalization strategy, with several products receiving approvals in international markets, including the US and Europe [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.22, 1.37, and 1.57 yuan, respectively [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 231 million yuan, up 178% [1][2] - The company maintains its positioning in the mass liquor market, focusing on core products and enhancing brand advantages, while optimizing product structure through product renewal and channel development [1][2] - The white liquor business shows stable growth, while the pork business continues to reduce losses [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue forecast for 2024 is 9.13 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.85%, and for 2025, it is projected at 8.60 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.78% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 231 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 293 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 26.89% [3] - Earnings per share are expected to be 0.31 yuan in 2024 and 0.40 yuan in 2025 [3] Product Strategy - The company focuses on core product adjustments to achieve product renewal, leveraging the brand advantage of Niulan Mountain and enhancing the classic Erguotou product series [2] - The company is expected to face revenue growth fluctuations due to the ongoing development of new products and the impact of the pork cycle [2] Market Catalysts - Potential catalysts include better-than-expected sales of new products, market expansion exceeding expectations, and improvements in the pork business profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company's performance is driven by the expansion of medical insurance coverage for its key products, Shuwotini and Golixitini, leading to significant revenue growth [1][2] - The company is expected to see accelerated commercialization of its pipeline, with strong differentiation advantages [4] - The revenue forecast for 2025 to 2027 is projected at 7.53 billion, 12.59 billion, and 21.74 billion respectively, reflecting robust growth [4][9] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved sales revenue of 360 million, a year-on-year increase of 294.24%, with a significant impact from medical insurance price compensation affecting approximately 52 million of the revenue [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 160 million, a year-on-year increase of 96.32%, attributed to the implementation of the new national medical insurance catalog for its core products [1] Product Pipeline and Catalysts - Shuwotini received priority review from the FDA for its new drug application in January 2025, with expectations for approval [2] - Golixitini is set to be launched in June 2024, being the first selective JAK1 inhibitor for treating peripheral T-cell lymphoma, showing promising efficacy and safety [2] - DZD8586 and DZD6008 are innovative products in clinical trials, with data expected to be presented at the 2025 ASCO conference, indicating potential for further advancements [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts significant revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 7.53 billion, 12.59 billion, and 21.74 billion respectively, driven by the commercialization of its key products [4][9] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 846 million, with a decline in subsequent years due to increased costs associated with product launches and development [9]

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 电机Ⅱ 微特减速电机隐形冠军，持续拓展下游应用场景 ——江南奕帆深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 深耕微特减速电机领域，持续拓展下游应用场景 公司专注于定制化微特减速电机的研发、制造和销售。公司产品线丰富多样，包 括永磁直流电动机、交直流两用电动机、三相异步电动机和单相电容电动机等， 共计超 3,000 种规格型号。2024 年以来公司业绩持续回暖。2024 年，公司实现营 业收入 2.82 亿元，同比增长 61.69%；归母净利润 0.95 亿元，同比增长 98.51%。 2025Q1，公司实现营业收入 0.55 亿元，同比增长 35.97%；归母净利润 0.17 亿 元，同比增长 28.31%。 ❑ 减速电机千亿赛道，下游应用领域广泛 减速电机是指电机和减速机构的集成体，下游包括输配电、房车、新能源汽车、 太阳能追踪器、太阳能电池板清洗机器人、电动自行车、人形机器人等行业。 2023 年中国市场减速机及配套电机市场规模为 884 亿元，预计 2030 年将达到 1156 亿元，20242030 年的复合增长率 CAGR 为 5.12%。 ❑ 工艺技术及产品质量行业领先，下游客户质优面 ...

Market Overview - On May 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.15%. The STAR Market 50 fell by 0.15%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.12%. The Hang Seng Index saw a decline of 1.87% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on May 13 included banking (+1.52%), beauty and personal care (+1.18%), pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (+0.9%), transportation (+0.72%), and coal (+0.62%). The worst-performing sectors were defense and military (-3.07%), computers (-0.8%), machinery (-0.66%), electronics (-0.64%), and telecommunications (-0.61%) [4][6] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on May 13 was 13,260.2 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.261 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][6] Key Recommendations - The report highlights TCL Smart Home (002668) as a leading player in the refrigerator ODM export market, expected to benefit from the continued export boom in the refrigerator industry. The company is projected to experience rapid growth in 2024 due to the export wave, although growth may slow in 2025 due to factors such as completed overseas inventory replenishment and tariff pressures [7][8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 11.8% in China's refrigerator export volume and a 11.3% increase in export value. Specifically, exports to Europe rose by 7%, while exports to Latin America surged by 43% [8] - Revenue forecasts for TCL Smart Home from 2025 to 2027 are 20,404.24 million yuan, 22,343.55 million yuan, and 24,108.32 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 1,147.24 million yuan, 1,272.94 million yuan, and 1,389.93 million yuan. The projected growth rates for revenue are 11.13%, 9.50%, and 7.90%, while net profit growth rates are 12.56%, 10.96%, and 9.19% [8] Important Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that the peak of China-US trade friction has been reached, with overall tariffs expected to stabilize around 30%. The additional tariffs imposed by the US on China are projected to decrease from 145% to 30% within the next 90 days [10][11] - The strategy research suggests that the public fund industry is likely to enter a more mature development phase, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets and encouraging long-term capital allocation to A-shares. This shift is expected to improve both property income and consumer demand, thereby supporting a positive cycle in the domestic economy [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights a focus on overseas breakthroughs and anticipates an inflection point in performance for the company [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in intelligent metallurgy equipment, with short-term support from increasing overseas orders and long-term potential from domestic renewal cycles and global trends in self-built steel production capacity [7] Financial Performance Summary 1) Revenue & Profit: - For the full year 2024, revenue is projected at 960 million yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 60 million yuan, down 69.0% year-on-year [6] - In Q4 2024, revenue is expected to be 380 million yuan, up 39.3% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 50 million yuan, up 57.8% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 120 million yuan, up 0.8% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 10 million yuan, down 10% year-on-year [6] 2) Profitability: - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 15.8%, down 12.9 percentage points year-on-year; net profit margin is projected at 5.9%, down 10.4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin is expected to be 19.8%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, showing some recovery [6] 3) Expense Analysis: - The total expense ratio for 2024 is projected at 6.2%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with financial expenses increasing due to reduced interest income [6] - In Q1 2025, the total expense ratio is expected to be 11.4%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] Business Segmentation - In 2024, revenue from production lines is expected to be 670 million yuan, down 24.5% year-on-year; revenue from spare parts is projected at 280 million yuan, up 26.1% year-on-year [6] - For overseas markets, revenue is expected to be 100 million yuan in 2024, down 73% year-on-year, but with a gross margin of 30.5%, indicating long-term potential [6] Order Outlook - The company secured new orders worth 650 million yuan in 2024, with over 60% from overseas markets, establishing a foundation for performance recovery in 2025 [8] - In Q1 2025, the company signed a contract worth 370 million yuan for a hot-rolled plate production line in Nigeria, indicating ongoing deepening of overseas expansion [8]