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华海清科(688120):受益存储扩产,3DIC全布局
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 10:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8] Core Insights - The company benefits from the expansion of storage and has a comprehensive layout in 3D IC technology. It continues to upgrade its CMP equipment, launching products that adapt to various materials and advanced processes, including the Universal-S300 CMP equipment, which has been successfully delivered to leading domestic integrated circuit manufacturers [3][4] - The company is actively developing a full-process solution for 3D IC, including thinning and cutting equipment, with significant market recognition for its Versatile-GM300 thinning and polishing integrated machine [4] - The company is advancing its ion implantation equipment, focusing on high-current types, and has successfully delivered its first 12-inch low-temperature ion implantation machine, iPUMA-LT, to a leading domestic logic chip manufacturer [5] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 46 billion, 59 billion, and 74 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 12 billion, 16 billion, and 21 billion yuan for the same years [8][10] - The projected growth rates for revenue are 35.82% for 2024, 34.16% for 2025, and 29.57% for 2026 [10][13] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.89 yuan for 2024, increasing to 5.80 yuan by 2027 [10][13]
银行业2026年度策略:新起点下的结构性机遇
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 08:23
Core Insights - The report maintains a strong market rating for the banking sector, highlighting structural opportunities amid a new economic starting point in 2026 [3][5] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support credit growth, with fiscal policies becoming more proactive and monetary policies remaining moderately accommodative [3][4] - The banking sector is anticipated to experience a stabilization in net interest margins, with a narrowing space of less than 5 basis points expected in 2026 [4][40] Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected to remain stable at around 5%, supported by structural improvements in financing demand from enterprises and households [12][14] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase from 4% in 2025, with proactive fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expectations [14][16] - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with social financing growth expected to maintain above 8% [16][17] Industry Core Policy Guidance - Regulatory bodies are focusing on protecting net interest margins, with measures in place to guide banks in pricing management and alleviate margin pressures [25][26] - New supportive policies, including interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, are expected to create favorable asset deployment scenarios for banks [27][28] - Capital supplementation policies are being optimized to enhance banks' credit expansion capabilities and risk resilience [28][29] 2026 Profitability Outlook - Corporate loan growth is expected to be a key driver of credit expansion, while retail credit improvements will depend on policy support for income and consumption [4][34] - The net interest margin is projected to stabilize, with a potential bottoming out in 2026, supported by regulatory measures and market conditions [40][41] - Fee income is anticipated to recover, particularly for city commercial banks, as market sentiment improves [42][43] 2026 Asset Quality Outlook - The overall asset quality of the banking sector is expected to stabilize, with non-performing loan ratios remaining low for corporate lines, while retail lines may still face risks [4][20] - The trend of provisioning coverage is expected to improve, providing banks with more flexibility in managing their asset quality [20][21] 2026 Industry Landscape Outlook - Differentiation among banks is likely to become a dominant theme, with larger banks expected to see more stable revenue growth compared to smaller banks facing complex operating environments [4][5] - Regional economic vitality will significantly influence the performance of local banks, with areas of strong economic growth presenting better investment opportunities [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The insurance sector is projected to see over 2 trillion yuan in new market funds in 2026, increasing demand for high-dividend assets [5] - Focus on state-owned banks with stable operations, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, as attractive investment targets [5] - Attention should be given to regional banks in economically vibrant areas, such as Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Bank, which are expected to perform well [5][6]
顺络电子(002138):AI服务器相关订单饱满
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 08:18
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company has a strong order backlog related to AI server components, leveraging its technological advantages in miniaturization, high precision, and high power [4] - The company has developed new tantalum capacitor products to meet the needs of major clients, featuring a leadless structure that improves volume utilization by 25% and enhances performance [5] - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 71.3 billion, 86.8 billion, and 103.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 10.2 billion, 13.5 billion, and 16.6 billion yuan [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 36.46 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 294 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 276 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 8.06 billion shares, with 7.57 billion shares in circulation [3] - The company's major shareholder is Xinyu Hengshuntong Electronic Technology Development Co., Ltd. [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 16.99%, 20.84%, 21.86%, and 19.40% for the years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] - The projected net profit growth rates are 29.91%, 22.54%, 32.46%, and 23.05% for the same years [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.03, 1.26, 1.68, and 2.06 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]
核电产业报告1:全球核电复兴下的4代核电的投资机会
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 06:44
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Buy" [1] Core Insights - The global nuclear energy ambition continues to exceed expectations, with the IAEA raising nuclear power installation forecasts for five consecutive years, projecting a global installed capacity of 1,363 GW by 2050, potentially reaching 1,428 GW when considering proposed projects [2][18] - The revival of nuclear energy is highly certain at the government level, with countries like Germany abandoning anti-nuclear stances and the U.S. planning to increase its nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050 [2][24] - The application of nuclear energy is expanding beyond electricity generation to include heating and hydrogen production, enhancing its role in the energy transition [2][26] - The inherent safety and sustainability of Generation IV nuclear power reactors are emphasized, with designs that rely on natural physical laws for safety and significantly improve uranium resource utilization [2][39] Summary by Sections Section 1: Energy Transition and Nuclear Revival - The need for system security in power supply is driving the revival of nuclear energy, with a focus on integrating renewable energy sources while ensuring safety [5][7] - The transition to renewable energy alone is deemed insufficient, necessitating a comprehensive approach that includes nuclear power to address the energy trilemma of security, affordability, and cleanliness [11][12] Section 2: Global Nuclear Ambitions - The "Triple Nuclear Declaration" announced at COP28 has expanded from 22 to 33 countries, aiming for a nuclear capacity of 1,200 GW by 2050, which is three times the capacity in 2020 [18][20] - The construction rate of nuclear power is expected to increase significantly, with the addition of new reactors projected to be four times that of 2030 [20][21] Section 3: Generation IV Nuclear Power - Generation IV nuclear power is essential for achieving nuclear energy ambitions, focusing on inherent safety and sustainability [29][30] - The report highlights the importance of fast reactors in utilizing uranium resources more efficiently, with potential utilization rates of 60-70% compared to traditional reactors [39][40] Section 4: Current Nuclear Power Landscape - As of November 2025, the global nuclear power capacity in operation is 382 GW, with a significant number of reactors in construction, particularly in China and India [44][48] - The average capacity factor for nuclear reactors globally is projected to be 83% in 2024, indicating stable performance across aging reactors [42]
君实生物(688180):EGFR/HER3ADC双抗进入II期临床,联用方案有望实现弯道超车
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 06:13
证券研究报告:医药生物 | 公司点评报告 发布时间:2026-01-06 股票投资评级 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价(元) | 34.16 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股)10.27 | / 7.66 | | 总市值/流通市值(亿元)351 | / 262 | | 周内最高/最低价 52 | 48.80 / 24.86 | | 资产负债率(%) | 45.0% | | 市盈率 | -26.28 | | 第一大股东 | HKSCC NOMINEES | | LIMITED | | 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 君实生物(688180) EGFR/HER3 ADC 双抗进入 II 期临床,联用方案有望 实现弯道超车 l EGFR/HER3 ADC 双抗进入 II 期临床,联用方案可期 事件:公司在 CDE 药物临床试验登记与信息公示平台网站上,登 记了一项 EGFR/HER3 双抗药物 JS212,联合 PD-1 抗体特瑞普利,或 PD-1/VEGF 双抗 ...
房地产行业报告(2025.12.29-2026.1.4):2026年地产市场企稳值得期待
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 06:07
证券研究报告:房地产|行业周报 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2225.97 | | 52 | 周最高 | 2436.17 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 房地产 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《推动高质量转型 多地"因城施策" 稳预期》 - 2025.12.09 房地产行业报告 (2025.12.29-2026.1.4) 发布时间:2026-01-06 行业投资评级 2026 年地产市场企稳值得期待 ⚫ 投资要点 根据中指院数据,2025 年 TOP100 房企权益销售总额约 25209 亿 元,24 年全年约为 30887 亿元,百强房企 25 年权益销售总 ...
电力市场化进一步完善,看好虚拟电厂的发展
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 05:49
证券研究报告:电力设备|点评报告 行业投资评级 行业相对指数表现(相对值) 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 49% 电力设备 沪深300 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 10088.23 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 10950.05 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6107.84 | 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:苏千叶 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110004 Email:suqianye@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 分析师:盛炜 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120008 Email:shengwei@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《国家发改委修定输配电成本监审和 定价办法,我们预计明年整体进入过渡 期——适应"拍卖"机制》- 2025.12.01 电力市场化进一步 ...
电网投资进一步加大,看好电网智能化的发展
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 05:48
证券研究报告:电力设备|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 10088.23 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 10950.05 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6107.84 | 行业相对指数表现(相对值) 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 49% 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:苏千叶 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110004 Email:suqianye@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 分析师:盛炜 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120008 Email:shengwei@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《国家发改委修定输配电成本监审和 定价办法,我们预计明年整体进入过渡 期——适应"拍卖"机制》- 2025.12.01 电网投资进一步加 ...
甘肃省构建发电侧容量电价,同时对煤电机组进行现货市场补偿
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 05:44
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the establishment of a capacity compensation mechanism for power generation in Gansu Province, which compensates for reliable capacity based on contributions, impacting all industrial and commercial users [5][6] - The compensation standard is set at 330 yuan per kilowatt annually, with various factors determining the reliable capacity and compensation coefficients [6] - The report suggests that the capacity compensation will gradually transition to a market-oriented approach, with an emphasis on the pricing of renewable energy sources like solar thermal and hydropower [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 10088.23, with a 52-week high of 10950.05 and a low of 6107.84 [2] Investment Highlights - The report discusses the need for a re-evaluation of pricing for solar thermal energy within the electricity market, indicating that current compensation mechanisms are necessary to avoid distorting pricing due to the operational costs of coal-fired power plants [6] - The compensation mechanism aims to ensure that the market operates on marginal cost pricing, allowing for optimal technology to prevail [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Xizi Clean Energy, as the capacity compensation mechanism is expected to enhance the reliability and pricing of various energy sources [7]
光热有望在电力市场化中重新被定价
China Post Securities· 2026-01-06 04:53
Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the power equipment industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued opinions to promote the large-scale development of solar thermal power, aiming for a total installed capacity of approximately 15 million kilowatts by 2030, with electricity costs comparable to coal power, establishing a new industry with international competitive advantages in the renewable energy sector [4][5] - The report emphasizes the need for solar thermal power to be re-priced in the electricity market, noting that the construction cost per kilowatt has decreased from approximately 30,000 yuan a decade ago to around 15,000 yuan, and the cost per kilowatt-hour has dropped to about 0.6 yuan [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the power equipment sector is 10,088.23, with a 52-week high of 10,950.05 and a low of 6,107.84 [1] Investment Highlights - The report suggests focusing on Xizi Clean Energy, indicating potential growth opportunities in the solar thermal sector due to supportive policies and technological advancements [6]