1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly. The overall view is to oscillate, as the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1] - For the main varieties of TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. Although the long - term upward trend of Treasury bond futures exists due to the need for a loose monetary environment, the short - term upward and downward space is limited, and short - term Treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate and consolidate [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: oscillate weakly; overall view: oscillate. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but short - term interest rate cuts are unlikely [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, most Treasury bond futures closed up, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.19%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.03%, and the 2 - year main contract flat [5] - In June, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year, showing weak overall performance, which is not conducive to the endogenous growth of domestic demand [5] - Considering the weak domestic inflation, insufficient endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand, and the impact of tariffs on external demand, a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year. However, due to the capital diversion effect caused by the rising risk appetite of the stock market and the weak short - term interest rate cut expectation, the short - term upward and downward space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly falling on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the future [7]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons or 0.05%. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 2.36%, while that in general trade increased by 0.40% [9]. - As of July 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 15.27 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a slight week - on - week decline of 0.17 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decline of 0.67 percentage points [9]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [9]. - In June 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points. The heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 85.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.81%, a month - on - month increase of 1.87%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 13.63%. The weekly average methanol output was 1.9871 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 70,600 tons [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.78%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.62%. The acetic acid operating rate was 97.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78%. The MTBE operating rate was 50.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20% [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78.39%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.60 percentage points. The domestic methanol to olefin futures profit was - 138 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 62 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 499,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,400 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 432, a week - on - week decrease of 6 and a year - on - year decrease of 47. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.433 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 418.95 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.845 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.493 million barrels week - on - week [15]. - As of July 1, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 234,693 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 1,724 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 166,510 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 23,997 contracts [16]. Group 3: Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,950 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,045 yuan/ton | + 60 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,440 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,372 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | 68 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 483.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 511.6 yuan/barrel | + 5.6 yuan/barrel | - 27.8 yuan/barrel | - 5.5 yuan/barrel | [17] Group 4: Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: On July 9, the main coke contract closed at 1,456 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.43%. The market logic has shifted from fundamental to expectation-based. Despite no significant improvement in fundamentals, the market is optimistic due to factors like anti-involution policies and the US extending tariff exemptions. The direct impact of the policy on coke may be limited as the coking industry recently completed capacity upgrades. It is expected that coke futures will maintain a strong and volatile trend [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: On July 9, the main coking coal contract closed at 843.5 points, up 0.84% intraday. Although coking coal production has marginally recovered in July, with the emergence of favorable domestic and foreign policies and a state leader's visit to Shanxi, the coking coal market sentiment is optimistic, and the futures are expected to remain strong and volatile [6][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - **Policy Guidance**: President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that the coal industry should be upgraded from low - end to high - end, and coal products from primary fuels to high - value products. At the same time, a new energy system should be built by developing wind, solar, and hydrogen energy [8]. - **Online Auction**: On July 9, Mongolia's ETT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was 63.2 US dollars/ton, and all 32,000 tons up for auction failed to sell [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, flat - price) | 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,200 yuan/ton | 2.56% | 3.45% | - 25.93% | - 39.39% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 940 yuan/ton | 1.08% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 40.51% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,230 yuan/ton | 1.65% | 1.65% | - 17.45% | - 41.15% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,280 yuan/ton | 2.40% | 2.40% | - 16.34% | - 38.16% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,456.0 | 2.43% | 1,466.0 | 1,428.0 | 27,440 | 11,051 | 48,461 | 381 | | Coking Coal | | 871.5 | 3.81% | 877.0 | 847.5 | 1,245,012 | 521,917 | 555,558 | 10,571 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over different time periods [14][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal over different time periods [18][21][23]. - **Other Charts**: Include charts on Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [25][28][29]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The market expects coke futures to maintain a strong and volatile trend, influenced by positive factors despite no significant improvement in fundamentals [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal futures are expected to remain strong and volatile due to favorable policies and optimistic market sentiment [6][32].

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 7 月 9 日 有色日报 美关税冲击，沪铜领跌有色 核心观点 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 有色金属 | 日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 沪铜 7 月 8 日美国特朗普表示要对铜征收 50%关税，这使得纽约铜拉涨 超 10%，突破 3 月时的高位，一度逼近 6 美元/磅。但伦铜走势反差 较大，呈现冲高回落态势，一度跌破 9600 美元/吨。COMEX 和 LME 价 差快速走阔，按照 7 月 7 日收盘价计算，价差已接近 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.19%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.03%, and the 2 - year main contract flat. The inflation data in June showed that CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year, which is weak and not conducive to the endogenous growth of domestic demand. Considering the current macroeconomic indicators and monetary policy, domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A moderately loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations, so the medium - to - long - term upward trend of treasury bond futures remains. However, due to the recent increase in risk appetite in the stock market leading to capital diversion and the weak expectation of interest rate cuts in the short term, the upward and downward space of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term. Overall, treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On July 9, the People's Bank of China conducted 75.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. There were 98.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan. - In June 2025, the year - on - year increase in the consumer price index was 0.1%, and the year - on - year decrease in the producer price index for industrial products was 3.6% [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 9 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪偏强，钢矿震荡上行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.07%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹供应回升，而需求延续弱势，基本面表现偏弱，淡季钢价仍易承 压，相对利好则是库存低位，现实矛盾不大，且原料强势带来成本支 撑，多空因素博弈下钢价维持震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.09%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷供需两端平稳运行，库存持续累库，基本面未有实质性改善， 相对利好则是政策利好预期与成本支撑，预计热卷价格延续震荡企稳态 势，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡上行，录得 0.68%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶 段，乐观情绪发酵，矿价震荡走高，但目前供需双弱局面下矿石基本面 表现弱稳，上行驱动不强，预计矿价转为高位震荡运行态势，关注成材 表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-870068 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a bullish bias [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For crude oil 2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory with a bullish bias, with a reference view of running strongly. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment supports the oscillatory and bullish movement of crude oil [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The core logic for the bullish view of crude oil is that due to the existing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the crude oil premium has increased. After a previous significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. The market sentiment has recovered as Trump extended the grace period for reciprocal tariffs. Supported by the bullish sentiment, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices rebounded slightly on Tuesday night. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract rose 1.27% to 511.4 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and bullish trend on Wednesday [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构偏弱，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The supply - demand structure is weak, with increasing internal and external supply and decreasing downstream demand. However, the potential new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Outlook - Short - term view of methanol 2509: volatile [1] - Medium - term view of methanol 2509: volatile [1] - Intraday view of methanol 2509: weakly volatile [1][5] - Overall reference view: weakly running [1][5] Driving Logic - Supply side: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are arriving, increasing external supply expectations, and ports are in a inventory - building cycle [5]. - Demand side: Downstream demand has entered the off - season [5]. - Policy factor: The recent high - level meeting proposed to address low - price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and a new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures [5]. Price Performance - On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures maintained a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.67% to 2366 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data shows a mixed picture with some indicators stable, some improving, and others declining, while geopolitical and trade - related events are creating uncertainties in various markets [1][2][3] - The bond market is under pressure from short - term factors, and there are different outlooks for different segments of the bond market [25][31] - The stock market is performing strongly, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks rising, and there are significant developments in related policies and corporate events [35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1] - Manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 49.7%, slightly up from the previous month [1] - Non - manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 50.5%, also slightly up [1] - Social financing scale in May 2025 was 22870 billion yuan, up from the previous year [1] - CPI in May 2025 was - 0.1% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous month [1] - PPI in May 2025 was - 3.3% year - on - year, down from the previous month [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment - Trump plans to impose tariffs on multiple countries and specific industries, which has affected the copper market [3][20] - Global gold ETFs had significant inflows in H1 2025, with North America being the main contributor [4][5] - Deutche Bank is optimistic about the platinum market in 2026 [5] 3.3 Financial News - The central bank conducted 690 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 8, resulting in a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan [15] - China and Hong Kong announced three measures to optimize the opening - up of the bond market [17] - Some rating companies may simplify credit rating reports [18] 3.4 Stock Market - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year [35] - The China Securities Association plans to revise the management method for the professional reputation information of the securities industry [36] - Northbound capital increased its holdings in some industries in Q2 2025 [36]