1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market presents a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high - valuation ore prices under pressure and showing a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2] - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and intraday trends are weakly volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA60 line. The core logic is that demand has declined from its peak, causing ore prices to weaken under pressure [1] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term is weakly volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, and the core logic is that demand has declined from its peak, causing ore prices to weaken under pressure. The calculation of the rise and fall amplitude is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night - session trading and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night - session trading, with the day - session closing price as the end price. The definitions of rise and fall states are also provided [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. Steel mill production is weakening, ore demand is declining with an expanding decline, and steel market industrial contradictions are only slightly alleviated with expected continued demand decline. At the same time, domestic port ore arrivals and miner shipments are at high levels, overseas ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing supply pressure. Overall, supply is high while demand is weak, the fundamentals are weakening, and high - valuation ore prices continue to be under pressure and run weakly and volatilely [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2512 are expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, while showing a weakening trend in the medium - term [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and weakening; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference view: running strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Recent Sino - US economic and trade consultations and positive policies from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee have improved the macro - sentiment. The rubber futures sector has undergone valuation repair. The supply - demand structure of the rubber market has slightly improved, with optimistic automobile production and sales data in China and typhoon interference on the supply side. On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed up 1.44% to 15,445 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and weakening; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference view: running strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, positive macro - factors have led to valuation repair in the rubber futures sector. The supply - demand structure of the rubber market has slightly improved, and automobile production and sales data in China are optimistic. On Thursday night, the 2512 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed up 1.13% to 11,230 yuan/ton and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Friday [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，螺纹钢周产量低位回升，但库存去化有限，供应利好效应不强。 与此同时，螺纹需求持续改善，但依旧是近年来同期低位，且下游未见好转，旺季成色不足。总 之，螺纹需求季节性回升，而供应同样增加，供需双增局面下基本面改善有限，库存去化压力未 退，钢价仍将承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情 况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The reference view for power coal is "oscillation". Although October is the traditional off - season for thermal coal, the price of domestic power coal has accelerated upward this week. The coal price is strongly supported by multiple positive factors, but the impact of weather and other factors is mainly short - term [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of October 16, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 732 yuan/ton, a significant weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton [4] - As of October 16, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.907 million tons, a weekly inventory reduction of 83,700 tons, and the inventory was 56,600 tons lower than the same period last year [4] 3.2 Driving Factors - **Demand - side factor**: While the north is cooling, the southern coastal cities maintain high temperatures, so the coal demand of power plants shows certain resilience. The daily consumption level of thermal coal in 8 coastal provinces is significantly higher than the same period last year, which supports the demand for power coal [4] - **Supply - side factor**: Rain and snow in major production areas such as Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have affected coal production and transportation, and the strong expectation on the supply side boosts market sentiment due to the anti - involution expectation [4] - **Logistics factor**: The autumn inspection of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway and the closure of some northern ports due to strong winds have hindered the turnover of port coal, and the reduction of supply has led to an optimistic market atmosphere [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the methanol 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Friday. Recently, due to the Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the positive policies released by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the macro - sentiment has improved. With the significant strengthening of domestic coal futures prices, the cost - driven logic of methanol is prominent, offsetting the bearish trend created by the weak supply - demand structure. The improvement of macro factors and the strengthening of cost factors help repair the methanol valuation. On Thursday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the futures price slightly rising 0.40% to 2285 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Other Key Points - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within a week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For the intraday view, there are distinctions of "volatile and strong" or "volatile and weak", while short - term and medium - term views do not make such distinctions [1]. - **Price Fluctuation Criteria**: For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the day - trading closing price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is "volatile and weak", an increase of 0 - 1% is "volatile and strong", and an increase of more than 1% is considered a rise [2][3]. - **Methanol Market Outlook**: The short - term view of methanol is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile and weak", the intraday view is "volatile and strong", and the reference view is "strong operation" [1][5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Short - term outlook is bearish, medium - term is sideways, and the reference view is to wait and see. The core logic is the increasing expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation and the end of the Russia - Ukraine war, leading to strong profit - taking intentions among funds [1][3]. - Copper: Short - term, medium - term and intraday outlooks are bullish, and it is considered strong in the long run. The core logic is the recurrence of mine - end disturbances, a rapid increase in capital attention, and the intensification of Sino - US trade fluctuations. Also, there are macro - level positive expectations and supply contractions, although short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress prices [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price: Yesterday, the price of gold fluctuated and stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. New York gold reached above $4100, and Shanghai gold approached 950 yuan [3]. - Market situation: After a sharp short - term decline, the profit - taking intention of previous long - positions rose rapidly. The price of gold fell below the 10 - day moving average, breaking the short - term strong pattern [3]. - News: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th [3]. Copper - Price: Yesterday, the price of copper increased with rising positions, and the main contract price closed above the 86,000 - yuan mark at the end of the session [4]. - Market situation: In the afternoon, the market sentiment improved, with both commodities and stock indices rising. The market has strong positive macro - level expectations for the Fourth Plenary Session. The short - term upward momentum is strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4]. - Factors: Macro - level easing and supply contractions continue to drive up the price of copper, while short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress the price [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - biased strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is shock - biased strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly shock - based. The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and sorted out yesterday and closed slightly lower. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th in Malaysia led to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, so a relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the long - term. However, due to the strong resilience of the macro - economy, there is a lack of necessity for an overall interest rate cut in the short - term, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is shock - biased strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations in the short - and long - term [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is shock - biased strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. The short - term treasury bond futures are mainly in shock. The driving factors include the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the problem of insufficient domestic demand, and the strong resilience of the macro - economy [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Today, the copper price increased with rising positions, and the main contract price closed above the 86,000 mark. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. In the short term, the copper price broke through the 86,000 mark with increasing positions and has strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, and the open interest continued to rise. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. In the short term, the aluminum price broke through the 21,000 mark with increasing positions. Continuous attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - Today, the nickel price fluctuated and rose slightly at the end of the session, with the open interest rising accordingly. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. The nickel price is at a low level since September, but the industrial pressure remains, and the rebound of the nickel price is weak. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, the current high copper price makes it difficult for end - customers to bear the cost pressure caused by the sharp rise in raw material prices. They prefer to consume their own inventories, resulting in a significant reduction in orders. This weak demand situation has been transmitted to the enameled wire sector, leading to insufficient orders in the industry recently and the continuous low operating rate of enterprises [8]. - **Nickel**: On October 23, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,800 - 123,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,550 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices showed a trend of hitting bottom and rebounding. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 1660.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The shrinking trading volume in the stock market indicates that market sentiment is cautious. On the news front, China and the United States will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th, which has reduced risk aversion and improved market sentiment. As the valuation of some stocks has increased significantly, the marginal expectation of incremental policy benefits at the end of the year has slowed down, and there is still a need for profit - taking in the capital market. In the short term, the changing rhythm of the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits will dominate the trend of stock indices within the year. In general, stock indices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [3]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options remains relatively stable. Considering that the stock indices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or covered calls [3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1 Option Indicators - On October 23, 2025, the 50ETF rose 0.60% to close at 3.167; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.38% to close at 4.713; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.23% to close at 4.855; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.30% to close at 4606.34; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.06% to close at 7308.10; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.35% to close at 7.249; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.24% to close at 2.893; the GEM ETF fell 0.03% to close at 3.038; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.14% to close at 3.498; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.56% to close at 3026.90; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.20% to close at 1.47; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.35% to close at 1.42 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on October 23, 2025, and their changes compared to the previous trading day are provided in detail, including 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in November 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options are presented, such as 50ETF options, 300ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), CSI 300 Index options, CSI 1000 Index options, 500ETF options (Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges), GEM ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 Index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7][8]. 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][10][11][13][16]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20][22][24][30]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [33][36][38][40]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 300 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [41][43][45][51]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 1000 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [54][56][58][64]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [67][69][70][76]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [80][84][85][91]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include charts of the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [94][96][98][103]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [107][109][111][117]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [120][122][124][130]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [133][135][137][141]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [144][146][148][154].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher, with a daily increase of 0.43%, volume increased and positions decreased. The demand for rebar has a seasonal rebound, while the supply also increases. Under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the improvement of the fundamentals is limited, the pressure of inventory reduction remains, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue the low - level oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][39]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated higher, with a daily increase of 0.65%, volume increased and positions were stable. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil is performing well, which improves the supply - demand pattern. However, the supply pressure remains, and there are concerns about demand. The fundamentals are unlikely to improve substantially, and the price of hot - rolled coil is under continuous pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. Subsequently, the trend will continue the pattern of finding the bottom through oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][39]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.39%, volume and positions expanded. At present, the supply of iron ore is at a high level, and industrial concerns remain. The demand for ore is weakening, the fundamentals of the ore market are weakening, and the over - valued ore price continues to be under pressure. However, because the rigid demand is still at a high level, there is resistance to the downward movement. It is expected that the ore price will continue the downward oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4][40]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th [6]. - In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. From January to September, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [7]. - In September 2025, China's rebar production was 14.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; from January to September, the cumulative production was 143.387 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [8]. Spot Market - The table shows the spot quotes of black metals, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and the price differences of main varieties, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight rates, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [9]. Futures Market - The table presents the main contract futures prices, including the closing price, change rate, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, volume difference, open interest, and position difference of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore [12]. Related Charts - The report includes charts on steel inventory (rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory), and steel mill production (247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and the proportion of profitable steel mills) [13][18][28]. Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 59,100 tons, and the inventory is relatively high. The demand has a seasonal rebound but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The fundamentals improvement is limited, and steel prices are still under pressure. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillation pattern [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has improved, but the supply pressure remains, and there are concerns about demand. The price is under continuous pressure. It is expected to continue the pattern of finding the bottom through oscillation [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. The terminal consumption of ore has declined from a high level, and the supply pressure has increased. The high - valued ore price continues to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the downward oscillation pattern [40].