策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆生长状况良好，叠加贸易忧虑情绪升温，美豆期价震荡偏弱运行。国内大豆市场供应充裕。 油厂高开工率背景下，豆粕产量持续快速增长，油厂豆粕库存连续 8 周低位回升。在国内油厂远期买船依 旧谨慎的背景下，下游市场对远期供应收紧的预期支撑了采购需求。油厂豆粕提货量持续高位，饲料企业 物理库存天数低位回升。短期豆粕期价震荡运行。 策略参考 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：受到国际油价下挫的拖累，油脂期价整体偏弱运行。同时随着 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：7 月 7 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约震荡运行，录得 0.24%的跌幅，报收于 834.5 元/吨。周 度供需数据来看，截至 7 月 4 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 73.9 万吨，环比增 0.1 万吨，较去年同期偏低 2.7 万吨。需求端，独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 111.81 万吨，周环比下降 0.13 万吨。整体来看，焦煤基本面并无明显改善，甚至短期内产区供 应有所回升，本轮期货上行主要是由消息面驱动，后续 7 月国内还将召开政治局会议，市场多 空博弈加剧，预计焦煤主力合约暂维持震荡运行。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support level of the MA60 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has weakened, and steel prices have declined in a volatile manner [2]. - Under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. During the off - season, steel prices continue to face pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The view is to pay attention to the support of the MA60 line, and the core logic is the weakening market sentiment and the decline of steel prices in a volatile manner. There are also explanations for price change calculations and definitions of different trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - Tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment, and steel prices have declined from high levels. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. Steel mills' production is active, and rebar output continues to rise, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows a stable performance overall, and although high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, they are still at a low level in the same period, and off - season demand remains weak. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. It is expected that steel prices will continue the volatile operation trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern, with the price of iron ore expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term view on the iron ore 2509 contract is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be in a state of oscillation, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern leading to a weakly oscillating ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of iron ore have weakened. During the off - season, more steel mills are undergoing inspections, and the terminal consumption of ore has begun to decline but remains at a high level for the year, providing some support for the ore price. At the same time, port arrivals have increased, but miners' shipments have continued to decrease significantly. After the end of the fiscal year, overseas ore supply has significantly shrunk, and domestic ore production has stabilized, resulting in a contraction of ore supply. After the "exemption period" ends, tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment. With the supply - demand dual - weak situation, the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable, and the short - term ore price is likely to be under pressure and oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [3].

姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈加剧，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：7 月 7 日，焦炭主力合约震荡下跌，录得 0.94%的跌幅，尾盘报收 于 1422.5 元/吨。近期市场逻辑再次由基本面博弈转向预期博弈。7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议提到要整治"内卷式竞争"，并引导落后 产能有序退出。目前，国内焦煤属于供应过剩品种，焦炭属于产能过剩品 种，均有被该政策影响的可能，不过焦化行业近几年刚完成产能升级，淘 汰 4.3 米及以下焦炉，因此本轮政策对焦炭直接影响可能相对有限 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 核心观点 铜：宏观氛围冷却，铜价冲高回落，持续关注美国关税政策 上周铜价冲高回落，上半周内外宏观利好推动下，主力期价一度 逼近 8.1 万关口。海外降息预期升温，美元指数持续下挫；国内"反 内卷"政策预期升温，供应收缩预期上升。下半周宏观氛围冷却，美 降息预期下降叠加关税担忧上升，导致市场风险偏好回落，铜价高位 回落，多头了结意愿上升。产业层面，供应端，低加工费下多数冶炼 厂已处于亏损状态，叠加"反内卷"政策预期，预计电解铜产量将持 续下降。需求端，整体国内政策刺激下，需求强劲，但进入需求淡 季，叠加铜价上涨至 8 万 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold returned to the $3350 mark, and Shanghai gold rose above 775 yuan. The expectation of US tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, pushing up the gold price. However, the better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data reduced the expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the probability of three rate cuts this year decreased significantly, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price is expected to remain under pressure. [3][29] - In the medium to long term, since the relaxation of US tariff policies, market risk appetite has increased, and the gold price has declined significantly. Technically, the 60 - day moving average can be used as a reference for long - term upward movement. After breaking below it, the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions may increase. The gold price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken. [3][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Trend**: The report mentions the linkage between the US dollar index and gold price but does not elaborate on the specific weekly trend [7]. - **Indicator Changes**: From June 27th to July 3rd, COMEX gold increased by 1.52%, COMEX silver by 2.42%, SHFE gold主力 by 1.94%, and SHFE silver主力 by 1.73%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.15%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.04%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.02, the S&P 500 increased by 1.72%, and the US crude oil continuous increased by 3.24%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.88%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 0.21%. SPDR gold ETF decreased by 7.16, and iShare gold ETF increased by 0.32 [8]. 3.2 Non - farm Payrolls Higher than Expected, Gold Price Under Pressure - In the first half of the week, the expectation of tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, and the gold price oscillated upwards. In the second half of the week, the better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data supported the Fed to maintain high interest rates, the US dollar index rebounded, and the gold price was under pressure. The high market risk preference last week, with the non - farm payrolls data having little impact on it, also put pressure on the gold price as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs [10][13]. 3.3 Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long non - commercial positions on COMEX have continued to rise. As of June 24th, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 4,509 contracts, short positions increased by 1,135 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16]. - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to climb. In early June, silver prices rose significantly, and the corresponding ETFs increased their positions significantly, with both price and volume rising. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, market attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to remain strong [18]. - Since late April, the gold price has risen and then fallen, and the gold - silver ratio has also declined from a high level. Silver has benefited from its precious metal attribute and short - term catch - up growth. After breaking through the one - year oscillation high, short - term market attention has increased, and it has strong upward momentum. The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [22]. - Since late June, the yield spread has continued to strengthen, mainly due to the significant decline in the near - end yield caused by expected interest rate cuts. Usually, the near - end US Treasury yield depends on the benchmark interest rate, while the long - end is more related to long - term economic conditions [24]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the gold price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term and maintain a weak trend in the medium to long term, while the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken [29].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱，钢矿高位震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡下行，录得 0.68%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 政策利好预期驱动钢价震荡走高，但螺纹钢基本面延续季节性弱势，上 行驱动不强，相对利好则是低库存格局未变，多空因素博弈下钢价维持 震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价高位震荡，录得 0.62%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷供需两端平稳运行为主，基本面并未好转，库存持续累库，但 政策利好预期再度发酵，乐观情绪支撑下热卷价格短期维持偏强运行态 势，谨防交易逻辑切换至产业端。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡回落，录得 0.68%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，政策利好预期再现，乐观情绪发酵，支撑矿价震荡上行，但矿石供 需格局在走弱，上行驱动不强，后续走势谨慎乐观，关注成材表现情 况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper continued to decline with reduced positions, and the main contract price approached the 79,000 mark. The commodity market sentiment has been cold since last Friday, with widespread declines in non - ferrous and black metals. On the industrial side, as copper prices rise, downstream buyers are more willing to wait and see, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased significantly on Monday. In the short term, due to macro - cooling and reduced industrial purchasing willingness, long - positions are being liquidated. Attention should be paid to the support at the 79,000 level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum declined significantly with reduced positions, and the main contract price dropped to the 20,400 level. The commodity market sentiment has been cold since last Friday, with widespread declines in non - ferrous and black metals. On the industrial side, the downstream has entered the off - season and is afraid of high prices, resulting in a slowdown in the destocking of Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory. Technically, the futures price faces some pressure at the June high [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel dropped to the 120,000 level, with a slight increase in open interest. The commodity market sentiment has been cold since last Friday, with widespread declines in non - ferrous and black metals. Fundamentally, in the short term, the upstream mines in Indonesia and the Philippines are strong, and the downstream stainless steel has also rebounded with the improvement of the domestic macro - economy, providing short - term support to the futures price. In the long - term, the oversupply of nickel elements limits the upside space of nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 level [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 7, Mysteel reported that the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 147,500 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared to the 30th and an increase of 18,100 tons compared to the 3rd [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 7, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 465,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the 3rd and an increase of 3,000 tons compared to the 30th [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 7, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,050 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,110 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,560 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,810 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,160 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [11][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, etc. [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [37][40][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 7, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 180.4 yuan/ton on June 30, - 180.4 yuan/ton from July 1 - 3, and - 178.4 yuan/ton on July 4. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The basis data is presented in a chart, showing the relationship between the basis, spot price of Chinese Shengli crude oil, and the futures closing price of INE crude oil [6] - **Fuel Oil**: The basis data is presented in a chart, showing the relationship between the basis, FOB Singapore fuel oil spot price, and the futures closing price of fuel oil [7] - **Crude Oil/Asphalt Ratio**: On July 4, 2025, the ratio was 0.1407; on July 3, it was 0.1393; on July 2, it was 0.1411; on July 1, it was 0.1395; on June 30, it was 0.1394 [9] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc., the basis data from June 30 to July 4, 2025, is provided. For example, the basis of natural rubber was - 35 yuan/ton on June 30, - 145 yuan/ton on July 1, - 125 yuan/ton on July 2, - 65 yuan/ton on July 3, and 45 yuan/ton on July 4 [10] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for various chemicals are given. For example, for natural rubber, the 5 - 1 month spread was 70 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 860 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 month spread was - 930 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2362 yuan/ton on June 30 and 2389 yuan/ton on July 4 [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal is presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 143 yuan/ton on June 30, 97 yuan/ton on July 1, 105 yuan/ton on July 2, 94 yuan/ton on July 3, and 108 yuan/ton on July 4 [15] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month) and those of iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 5 yuan/ton [15] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.19 on June 30 and July 4 [15] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market is presented. For example, the basis of copper was 200 yuan/ton on June 30, - 240 yuan/ton on July 1, 570 yuan/ton on July 2, 580 yuan/ton on July 3, and 790 yuan/ton on July 4 [24] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: On July 4, 2025, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 95.35, - 3.40, - 21.64, - 24.63, - 189.09, and 22.00 respectively. The Shanghai - London ratios were 8.07, 7.93, 8.13, 8.37, 7.95, and 7.94 respectively. The CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit - losses are also provided [31] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of soybeans (No.1 and No.2), soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. is presented. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 61 yuan/ton on June 30 and July 3, - 71 yuan/ton on July 2, - 47 yuan/ton on July 1, and - 31 yuan/ton on July 4 [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 24 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from June 30 to July 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.75 on July 3 and July 4 [40] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures is presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 50.28 on June 30, 56.76 on July 1, 49.48 on July 2, 50.07 on July 3, and 46.20 on July 4 [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 (next - month - current - month, current - quarter - current - month, next - quarter - current - month, etc.) are given. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 19.4 [48]