投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 多空因素交织，焦煤低位调整 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 多空博弈，焦炭低位整理 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：低位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting achieved positive results, stabilizing bilateral economic and trade relations [2][14] - The global commodity market shows various trends, with different performances in metals, energy, and agricultural products [5][9][10] - The bond market is performing strongly, and the currency market has complex interest - rate changes [21][22] - The stock market has certain trends, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks rising, and insurance funds accelerating their entry into the market [31][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In Q1 2025, GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [1] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, slightly down [1] - In April 2025, social financing scale increment decreased significantly compared to the previous month, and financial institution RMB loans also decreased [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Metals - Spot gold reached a four - day high due to concerns about the Middle East situation. Central banks are increasing gold reserves at a record pace [5] - Copper, tin, lead, and other metal inventories in the London Metal Exchange decreased, with some reaching multi - year lows [6] - Zimbabwe will ban lithium concentrate exports from 2027 [6] 3.2.2 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - On June 11, 19 steel mills raised scrap steel purchase prices [7] 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The National Energy Administration will carry out hydrogen energy pilot projects [8] - The European market drives the growth of US natural gas futures trading [9] - The global oil and gas industry outlook is deteriorating due to factors such as US tariffs [9] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - China's cotton planting area has reached 4482.3 million mu this year, with good growth, especially in Xinjiang [10] - Global coffee prices soared in 2024, and Brazil's coffee production decline affected the market [10] - Argentina's wheat production forecast for the 2025/26 season decreased [11] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 11, the central bank conducted 1640 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 509 billion yuan [13] 3.3.2 Key News - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting achieved positive results [14] - As of May, over 1.6 trillion yuan of replacement bonds were issued, completing over 80% of this year's target [15] - Many provinces have adjusted their budgets to increase borrowing and spending [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market - The bond market performed strongly, with rumors of the central bank inquiring about six - month term repurchase. Treasury bond futures rose [21] - European bond yields generally rose, while US bond yields fell [24] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [25] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that convertible bond valuations are expected to rise [27] - CITIC Fixed Income argues that China does not have an asset - liability balance sheet recession problem [27] - CICC Research Report shows that China's consumer market features "consumption segmentation" [28] 3.4 Stock Market - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is promoting the inclusion of Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs in the fund transfer platform [31] - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks rose, with insurance funds accelerating their entry into the market [31][32] - The stock - repurchase and share - increase re - loan tool is stabilizing the capital market [32]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 淡季需求走弱，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局偏弱运行，建筑钢厂转产，螺纹钢产量持续下降，供应迎来收缩。不过，淡季 螺纹需求表现疲弱，高频指标低位运行。总之，低库存格局显示螺纹现实矛盾不大，但供需双弱局 面下基本面并未改善，淡季钢价仍易承压，预计后续走势延续震荡寻底态势，关注今日钢联公布的 产销数据情况。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：国内动力煤价格在经历 5 月下旬的短暂企稳后，再次走弱。5 月份，山西等主产区出 现安全事故，6 月进入国家安全生产月后，产地安监和环保影响有所加大，但当前正值迎峰度夏 关键时期，预计对国内煤炭产量整体影响可控。需求方面，6 月 4 日，国家气候中心发布 2025 年 汛期全国气候趋势滚动预测，显示今夏我国降水呈现"北多南少"的特征，其中四川东北部、云 南西部等地降水较常年同期偏多，且大部地区气温偏高。不过，截至 5 月底，国内电厂煤 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has continuously climbed to a historical high. From a statistical arbitrage perspective, silver has a basis for rising. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. It broke through the one-year trading range high and reached a new high in the 21st century, attracting significant capital inflows [5][11][38]. - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. This is mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective [5][29][38]. - In the long term, against the backdrop of deglobalization and de-dollarization, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds remain weak, and the long-term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, providing strong support for the precious metal attribute of silver. After the relaxation of US tariff policies in late April, the global market may follow an economic recovery logic in the third quarter. Benefiting from its industrial attribute, silver may continue to make up for lost ground [5][38][39]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Silver's Breakthrough - On June 5th, after the Asian market closed, silver prices soared. New York silver broke through the $35 high and reached the $36 mark, a new high in the past year. The Shanghai silver futures opened higher at 8,700 yuan/kg. Technically, silver prices rose with increasing positions, and after breaking through the one-year trading range high and reaching a new high, capital attention quickly increased. The open interest of Shanghai silver futures rose from 870,000 lots to 1,070,000 lots within 5 trading days after the Dragon Boat Festival [8]. - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has climbed to a historical high, providing a basis for silver to rise from a statistical arbitrage perspective. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. Both copper and crude oil, representing international demand, and the black commodity sector, representing domestic demand, showed significant increases on that day [11][38]. - Since June, the macroeconomic situation has clearly improved, showing signs of an economic upward trend. Global stock markets have continued to rise, and the commodity market has also shown a recovery trend. The domestic cultural commodity index has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the overseas CRB index has also trended upwards. From a PMI perspective, China's manufacturing PMI and new order index both improved month-on-month in May; although the US ISM manufacturing PMI declined month-on-month in May, the new order index improved month-on-month; the eurozone was relatively optimistic, with the manufacturing PMI rising continuously below the boom-bust line in the first half of the year [13]. 2. Restoration of the Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio declined significantly in June due to the rise in silver prices. Looking at a longer period, the gold-silver ratio began to decline as gold prices fell in late April, indicating a cooling of market risk aversion demand. Before June, the decline in the gold-silver ratio was due to the fall in gold prices, while in early June, it was due to the rise in silver prices [18]. - Historically, the gold-silver ratio has fluctuated between 40 and 80 since the 20th century, with the central value shifting upwards after 2020. This is mainly due to the increase in gold prices driven by rising risk aversion demand due to frequent geopolitical events. From a statistical arbitrage perspective, a high gold-silver ratio means that gold is overvalued or silver is undervalued, but from a fundamental perspective, it also has rationality [25]. 3. Learning from History - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. Excluding the heavily manipulated situation in 1980, the market conditions after the 2010 - 2011 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2020 global COVID-19 pandemic can be used as references [29]. - Silver's significant price increases are mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective. During the same period, crude oil and copper prices also rose synchronously [29][32][38]. 4. The Role of Industry in Silver - The correlation between silver and gold is relatively stable, generally above 0.7, indicating that the common variables between gold and silver account for a relatively stable proportion in the long term. The individual variables of silver have a relatively small impact on its price in both the long and short term [36]. - The correlation between silver and copper fluctuates greatly. Before 2019, the correlation between silver and copper declined year by year, and after 2019, it continued to rise. The correlation between gold and copper also shows a similar trend, but the overall correlation is relatively low [36]. - The manifestation of silver's industrial demand largely depends on the macroeconomy. The correlation between copper and silver mainly depends on the strength of the macroeconomy. When the macroeconomy has a significant impact on industrial demand, the two generally show the same direction of fluctuation, especially during an economic recovery [36]. 5. Conclusion - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has continuously climbed to a historical high, providing a basis for silver to rise from a statistical arbitrage perspective. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. It broke through the one-year trading range high and reached a new high in the 21st century, attracting significant capital inflows [5][11][38]. - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. This is mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective [5][29][38]. - In the long term, against the backdrop of deglobalization and de-dollarization, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds remain weak, and the long-term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, providing strong support for the precious metal attribute of silver. After the relaxation of US tariff policies in late April, the global market may follow an economic recovery logic in the third quarter. Benefiting from its industrial attribute, silver may continue to make up for lost ground. Currently, after breaking through the one-year trading range high and reaching a new high, the attention on silver has rapidly increased, and its short-term speculative attribute is relatively strong. One can follow the trend and manage risks well [5][38][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the domestic supply of live pigs and pork is relatively abundant, and pig prices will maintain a weak and volatile pattern. Short - term frozen meat purchases can help stabilize market confidence and curb the decline of pig prices. Measures such as regulating sow production capacity, banning secondary fattening speculation, and restricting slaughter weight mostly take a long time to show effects, especially regulating sow production capacity which may take about a year [4][48]. - Current policy regulation is a combination of "short - term emergency + long - term root - solving". The emergency measures are purchases and weight - limit orders to hedge the current excess pressure; the root - solving measures are production - limit orders and banning secondary fattening to promote production capacity clearance. The key to success lies in the implementation strength of leading enterprises and the speed of production capacity reduction. If the policies are implemented effectively, a turning point may come at the end of the third quarter [4][48]. - From June to August, the policy combination (especially purchases + weight - limit) may prevent a sharp decline in pig prices, but it is difficult to see a significant increase due to the off - season of consumption and abundant supply. If overweight pigs are sold in a concentrated manner, there is still a risk of losses. In the long - term, if the production - limit order is strictly enforced, the supply pressure in 2025 will ease. From the end of the third quarter, the supply will gradually tighten, and pig prices are expected to bottom out and rebound from the middle and late third quarter to the fourth quarter [4][48]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Current Core Issues in the Live Pig Market 1.1 Overcapacity - As of the end of April, the national sow inventory was still 3.6% higher than the national regulatory benchmark level, and the process of reducing production capacity was slow. The root cause of overcapacity was the ineffective control of early - stage capacity expansion by leading enterprises and speculative replenishment by small and medium - sized farmers. High piglet prices in the first half of the year also delayed the culling of sows. Seasonal weakness in demand exacerbated the supply - demand contradiction [8]. 1.2 Intensified Supply Pressure - As of early June, the slaughter weight of domestic live pigs soared to over 140 kg, indicating a strong willingness to sell large - weight pigs. The supply of pork was abundant, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening was low. Macro - control policies led to an oversupply of pork. Secondary fattening was banned in some provinces, and leading enterprises stopped selling fattening pigs for secondary fattening [18]. 1.3 Persistently Low Pig Prices - As of early June, the average domestic live pig slaughter price had fallen below 14 yuan/kg, hitting a new low for the same period in the past five years. Only leading enterprises were profitable in the self - breeding and self - fattening model, while small and medium - sized farmers and the model of purchasing piglets for fattening generally suffered losses [25]. 2. Policy Regulation Measures 2.1 Limiting Capacity Expansion - Current policies focus on source control, process supervision, and demand adjustment. Leading enterprises are required to suspend expanding sow production capacity, and the sow inventory should be controlled to a reasonable level. Inefficient sow farms will be forced to exit, and small and medium - sized farmers who actively cull sows will be subsidized. This will directly reduce the future supply of live pigs, but there is a lag in the effect of capacity reduction [33]. 2.2 Controlling Slaughter Weight - A maximum slaughter weight standard of 120 kg is set nationwide. Slaughterhouses and local animal husbandry supervision departments are responsible for joint supervision, and slaughterhouses are required to reject overweight pigs. Resource occupation fees will be levied in pilot provinces [35]. 2.3 Banning Secondary Fattening - The circulation of overweight pigs is cut off by banning secondary fattening. Leading enterprises are prohibited from selling fattening pigs for secondary fattening, and the business licenses of secondary fattening farms in some provinces are revoked. Illegal reselling is strictly investigated to accelerate the slaughter of large - weight pigs [36]. 2.4 Initiating Frozen Pork Purchases - Since the second quarter, the domestic pig - grain ratio has continued to decline and has fallen back to the second - level warning range. On June 11, the first round of frozen meat purchase and bidding work was launched, with a purchase volume of 10,000 tons [37]. 3. Policy Effect Evaluation and Impact 3.1 Short - Term Policy Effects - Secondary fattening has been effectively curbed. On June 11, 10,000 tons of frozen pork were purchased, and pig prices stopped falling and stabilized in the short term. However, the slaughter weight is still high, and the progress of capacity reduction is slow. The core contradiction of 140 - kg pig sales and the off - season of consumption has not been resolved [42][43]. 3.2 Analysis of Policy Tool Limitations - The policy of suspending new sows only stops the expansion of leading enterprises, but the existing sows are not culled. The weight - limit order has loopholes in implementation, and it takes 1 - 2 months to digest existing 140 - kg pigs. Banning secondary fattening may lead to the concentrated early slaughter of pressure - barred pigs. Frozen meat purchases only account for 0.2% of monthly consumption, which is a drop in the bucket [44]. 4. Summary - In the short term, pig prices will maintain a weak and volatile pattern. The current policy is a combination of short - term emergency and long - term root - solving. From June to August, the policy combination may prevent a sharp decline in pig prices but is difficult to lead to a significant increase. In the long - term, if the production - limit order is strictly enforced, the supply pressure will ease, and pig prices are expected to bottom out and rebound from the middle and late third quarter to the fourth quarter [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The regional differentiation in the corn market continues. The price in the Northeast production area remains firm due to cost support, and attention should be paid to the impact of future weather changes on prices. The North China production area is under short - term pressure due to wheat substitution, and it is necessary to observe whether the wheat minimum purchase price policy can alleviate the substitution of new wheat for corn. The risk of delayed summer corn sowing cannot be ignored. As the domestic corn production areas enter the weather - driven market stage, the short - term trend of corn futures prices is more likely to rise than fall [4][60]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the price trend depends on the release rhythm of policy grains, changes in import scale, and the evolution of new crop weather. Weather changes can affect market sentiment in the short term and yield prospects in the long term if they persist. The release rhythm of policy grains affects the market supply of grains. Attention should be paid to the inhibitory effect of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan on feed substitution and the potential impact of the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations on import pressure in the fourth quarter. With deep - processing losses and expanding import profits, the market is facing more intense long - short competition [4][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Corn Futures and Spot Prices Rise in Tandem - The continuous decline in wheat prices due to the completion of more than half of the new wheat harvest in North China has restricted the rise of corn spot prices. However, the launch of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan has relieved the pressure on the domestic corn market, especially in North China [8]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, both the domestic corn futures main contract 2509 and the CBOT corn futures prices rebounded. Due to the fact that the remaining corn in domestic production areas is mainly held by traders with a mindset of hoarding and price - supporting, the domestic corn market price has shown small fluctuations recently. In early June 2025, the purchase price of corn in Heilongjiang and Jilin's deep - processing enterprises was in the range of 2120 - 2230 yuan/ton, with a partial rebound of 15 - 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Shandong, it was in the range of 2380 - 2500 yuan/ton, with a main fluctuation of 10 - 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [8]. 3.2 Wheat Minimum Purchase Price Policy Boosts Market Sentiment, and Drought Emerges in Some Production Areas 3.2.1 Henan Launches Wheat Minimum Purchase Price Policy, and the Quantity of Imported Grains Has Changed - As of June 8, wheat harvest in Hubei and Anhui has ended, and it is nearing completion in Henan. The harvest progress in Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Shaanxi is slower than the same period in previous years. The summer sowing of corn in North China is expected to be slightly delayed this year. The launch of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan on June 7 has supported wheat prices and restricted the substitution of new domestic wheat for feed corn [11]. - In terms of imported grains, the price of CBOT corn futures has rebounded, and the theoretical import profit of Brazilian corn for the third - quarter shipment has reached 450 yuan/ton. The first shipment of Brazilian corn to China in the second half of the year is waiting to be loaded, with an expected loading in mid - to - late June and an arrival in China around August. The import of Russian corn is expected to remain at a peak of 30,000 tons per month. The scale of Ukrainian corn imports has declined, with only 50,000 tons imported in the first four months of this year compared to nearly 200,000 tons in the same period last year. The scale of US corn imports has dropped below 10,000 tons since October 2024. Argentina and Australia are becoming the main sources of China's imported grains. In recent months, sorghum from Argentina and Australia has had the greatest impact on corn consumption, but the absolute quantity of imported grains arriving in China from June to August is expected to be significantly different from before [12]. 3.2.2 North Port Inventory Declines, and Price Inversion Continues - As of the week ending May 30, the theoretical cost of bulk - shipped corn arriving at southern ports is 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton, while the southern port price is 2410 - 2430 yuan/ton, resulting in an immediate theoretical loss of 30 yuan/ton. The arrival volume of new - season bulk - shipped corn at northern ports and at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises is low [21]. - As of May 30, the corn inventory at Guangdong Port has decreased to 1.15 million tons, with imported corn inventory at 3,000 tons and imported substitute grains (mainly sorghum and barley) inventory at around 700,000 tons. The corn inventory at northern ports (eight ports) has slightly decreased to around 4.5 million tons [21]. 3.2.3 Corn Growth in Production Areas Is Slower Than the Same Period Last Year, and Drought Emerges in Some Areas - In June, high - temperature and drought conditions in parts of North China may continue to affect summer corn sowing, but due to good irrigation facilities, it may not have a significant impact on local yields. As of June 7, most spring - sown corn in the north is in the three - leaf to seven - leaf stage. Corn growth in Heilongjiang is relatively fast, with nearly 80% of the corn in the seven - leaf stage. Compared with the same period last year, the proportion of corn in the seven - leaf stage in Heilongjiang and Jilin is higher, while in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia, it is lower. Due to low - temperature and less - rainfall conditions during the sowing period this year, the overall corn growth in the Northeast is slower than last year [27]. - In early June, the light, heat, and water conditions in most parts of the Northeast are favorable for crop emergence, but there is a lack of soil moisture in parts of Inner Mongolia and Liaoning, and heavy rainfall in some areas of Heilongjiang and Jilin may affect corn growth. In the next ten days (June 9 - 18), the weather in most agricultural areas in the Northeast is favorable, but heavy rainfall and strong convective weather may cause flooding or lodging of seedlings [27]. 3.2.4 Pig Feed Corn Consumption Is Difficult to Increase Significantly, and Deep - Processing By - products Are Affected by Trade Policies - In the 23rd week of 2025, the average slaughter price of live pigs in China was 14.27 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83%. The breeding profit is in the range of - 150 to 100 yuan per head, with an average loss of 45 yuan per head. The pig - to - grain ratio is 5.98:1, within the green regulation range. Most breeding models are in a loss state, and relevant measures to control sow expansion, pig slaughter weight, and secondary fattening are not conducive to the growth of pig feed corn consumption. The impact of new wheat on corn consumption is the main obstacle, but the implementation of the wheat minimum purchase price policy in Henan may limit the expansion of wheat feed substitution [34]. - As of the week ending June 6, 2025, the corn purchase prices at deep - processing enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Shandong have shown different trends. The deep - processing operating rate is at a low level. The corn starch market price is generally firm with slight local declines, and the corn alcohol price is fluctuating. The theoretical losses of corn alcohol and starch production in some enterprises have increased or decreased. The average operating rate of the corn starch and alcohol industries is about 51.5%, with the alcohol industry rebounding and the starch industry declining [35]. - The low operating rate of corn alcohol enterprises has led to a tight supply of DDGS, but due to the unfavorable protein price ratio with soybean meal, the DDGS price has shown small fluctuations. The average domestic DDGS price on June 10, 2025, is 2309 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The supply shortage of domestic DDGS may support prices, but the opening of the Brazilian DDGS import market may have a negative impact on the long - term market [36][37]. 3.2.5 Sino - US Trade Relations Show Improvement, but Importing US Corn Still Has No Advantage - On June 5, US President Trump announced after a call with China's top leader that Sino - US trade officials would hold a new round of face - to - face talks. On June 9, Sino - US economic and trade teams held the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London. The optimistic sentiment in Sino - US trade has pushed up US agricultural product futures prices [56]. - After the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and the US, China still imposes a 25% comprehensive tariff on US corn. The landed duty - paid price of US corn is 2340 - 2420 yuan/ton, which is lower than the domestic price in Guangdong Port but significantly higher than the price of Brazilian and Argentine corn, so it has no price advantage compared with South American corn [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: On June 11, the main coke contract closed at 1356 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.31%. The spot market price at Rizhao Port decreased week-on-week. The coke market has a weak fundamental situation, with a supply - demand double - decline since May. However, factors such as coking coal supply disruptions and the easing of Sino - US relations have led to a slight price rebound, and the main contract is in low - level volatile operation [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: On June 11, the main coking coal contract closed at 783.5 points, with an intraday increase of 1.10%. Since late May, the output of some coal mines has declined, and in June, domestic coking coal production is uncertain due to safety and environmental inspections. The political turmoil in Mongolia has also worried the market. The coking coal contract has rebounded at a low level, but the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern has not reversed [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to May, China's automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 45.2% and 44%, accounting for 44% of total vehicle sales [8]. - On June 11, the auction price of coking coal in Linfen Puxian market decreased. The starting price of low - sulfur fat coal was 1100 yuan/ton, and 10,000 tons were sold at the base price, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton compared with May 28 [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1270 yuan/ton | - 5.22% | - 5.22% | - 24.85% | - 36.18% [10] | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1180 yuan/ton | - 0.84% | - 3.28% | - 27.16% | - 38.86% [10] | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 900 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 2.17% | - 23.73% | - 44.44% [10] | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1200 yuan/ton | - 4.76% | - 5.51% | - 19.46% | - 44.44% [10] | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1250 yuan/ton | - 3.10% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% [10] | Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1356.0 yuan/ton | 1.31% | 1365.5 yuan/ton | 1339.0 yuan/ton | 25,401 | - 5,911 | 52,791 | - 1,227 [13] | | Coking Coal | | 783.5 points | 1.10% | 801.0 points | 778.5 points | 1,152,104 | - 265,124 | 557,029 | - 10,814 [13] | Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total coke inventory from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [20][23][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation charts [27][29][30]. Market Outlook - **Coke**: The fundamental situation is weak, but short - term factors have led to a price rebound. The main contract will continue low - level volatile operation [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: The short - term price has rebounded, but the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern has not changed, and the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed [6][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term palm oil market is a game between increasing production and strong demand. Strong export demand can offset some inventory pressure. The current support for international palm oil demand mainly comes from India and China actively purchasing shipments from June to August. However, the decline in EU market demand will drag down global market demand [3][34]. - Currently in the increasing production cycle of Southeast Asian palm oil, the production of palm oil will seasonally increase from June to August, which will offset the pulse - like demand from India, and the global inventory reconstruction cycle has begun. The supply - demand balance sheet clearly points to the peak of inventory accumulation pressure in the third quarter of 2025, but India's pulse - like demand and policy variables may delay the downward trend. Attention should be paid to the possible inflection point of the inventory - consumption ratio in August. If India's replenishment ends in August and EU demand does not improve, the increasing production pressure in the palm oil market will dominate the market, and futures prices will face downward risks again [3][34]. - The inventory of domestic palm oil is slowly rising, and the support of low inventory for prices has weakened. In the absence of its own driving force, it will still mainly follow the fluctuations of the international palm oil market [3][36]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Malaysia Palm Oil Supply Surplus Pressure Continues 3.1.1 Ma Palm Production Seasonal Recovery Exceeds Expectations - On June 10, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board released the production and demand data of Malaysian palm oil in May. The report showed that the production in May increased by 5.05% month - on - month to 1.77 million tons, higher than the expected 1.74 million tons, and it was the third consecutive month of growth, reaching a new high since October 2024. The main reasons for the increase were seasonal recovery and good weather [7]. - The report confirmed that Malaysia has entered a definite increasing production channel, and the supply pressure will continue to accumulate from June to August. Although the surge in Indian demand provides short - term hedging, the structural shrinkage in the EU and the arrival of the high - yield period will make the global palm oil balance sheet evolve towards a looser direction. SPPOMA estimated that the production from June 1 - 5 increased by 10.1% month - on - month, indicating the continuation of the increasing production cycle [7]. 3.1.2 Ma Palm Export Demand is Strong - ITS and AmSpec data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil in May increased by 13.27% - 17.9% month - on - month. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board report confirmed that the export increased by 25.6% month - on - month to 1.39 million tons, reaching a six - month high. The main reason was the explosive replenishment in India. In May, India imported 600,000 tons of palm oil, a month - on - month increase of 87%, a six - month high, and the total edible oil import was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 37% [13]. 3.1.3 Ma Palm Inventory Pressure Appears - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board report showed that the palm oil inventory at the end of May in Malaysia was 1.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%, slightly lower than the pre - report market expectation of 2.01 million tons, but still the highest since September 2024. The main reason for inventory accumulation was that the increase in production offset the strong export. Considering that Malaysia will enter the seasonal growth period from June to August, the palm oil production is expected to increase by 3 - 5% month - on - month. Coupled with the annual target of 48 million tons of GAPKI in Indonesia, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, the global monthly average supply is 200,000 - 350,000 tons higher than the demand. The global palm oil inventory accumulation may accelerate in the second half of 2025 [14]. 3.2 Regional Market Differentiation Appears 3.2.1 EU Demand Collapses - As of the 2024/25 season, the EU's palm oil import was only 2.63 million tons, a year - on - year sharp drop of 19%. The main reason was policy - driven. The RED II directive required palm oil to pass strict sustainable certification (such as zero - deforestation certification), significantly raising the import threshold. The EU's demand for oils and fats showed an obvious structural trend, that is, the EU turned to domestic rapeseed oil or waste edible oil, and the demand for palm oil has been in a long - term downward trend [18]. 3.2.2 India's Import Explosive Growth is Difficult to Sustain - India's import increased explosively in May. The palm oil import was 600,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 87%, a six - month high; the total edible oil import was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 37%, and the imports of soybean oil and sunflower oil also increased simultaneously. However, India's replenishment was only a short - term behavior. From January to April, the average monthly import was only 450,000 tons, continuously lower than the normal monthly average of 750,000 tons, resulting in the inventory being consumed to a dangerous level. In addition, there was a certain lag in the repair of the soybean - palm oil price difference. The price of palm oil did not fall below that of soybean oil until the end of April, making the cost - effectiveness advantage of palm oil prominent in May [22]. - In June, the import tax on crude palm oil was reduced from 20% to 10% (the refined oil tax rate remained at 12.5%). The policy intention was clear. Since palm oil accounts for 40% of India's edible oil consumption, it is necessary to reduce food inflation in the short term and support the domestic refining industry in the long term. Traders locked in the shipping schedules from June to July in advance to take advantage of the tax rate difference for arbitrage [22]. 3.2.3 China's Palm Oil Ship - Buying Increases and Consumption Warms Up - With the increase in palm oil import ship - buying, the domestic palm oil port inventory has gradually risen from a low level. As of the week of June 10, the port palm oil inventory rose to 398,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. However, from the perspective of import profit, both recent and forward imports still had a small loss. In terms of domestic market demand, the catering industry has warmed up in the first half of this year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the catering revenue from January to April 2025 increased by 9.7% year - on - year. The demand for fast food and baking has driven the consumption of palm oil. At the same time, the cost - effectiveness of palm oil is prominent, and food factories have switched formulas, with the substitution rate of baking oil increasing by 20%, which supports the consumption of palm oil [26]. 3.3 Summary - Short - term palm oil market is a game between increasing production and strong demand. Strong export demand can offset some inventory pressure. The current support for international palm oil demand mainly comes from India and China actively purchasing shipments from June to August. However, the decline in EU market demand will drag down global market demand [3][34]. - Currently in the increasing production cycle of Southeast Asian palm oil, the production of palm oil will seasonally increase from June to August, which will offset the pulse - like demand from India, and the global inventory reconstruction cycle has begun. The supply - demand balance sheet clearly points to the peak of inventory accumulation pressure in the third quarter of 2025, but India's pulse - like demand and policy variables may delay the downward trend. Attention should be paid to the possible inflection point of the inventory - consumption ratio in August. If India's replenishment ends in August and EU demand does not improve, the increasing production pressure in the palm oil market will dominate the market, and futures prices will face downward risks again [3][34]. - The inventory of domestic palm oil is slowly rising, and the support of low inventory for prices has weakened. In the absence of its own driving force, it will still mainly follow the fluctuations of the international palm oil market [3][36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro atmosphere has warmed up, driving up the prices of most non - ferrous metals. The copper price is expected to maintain a strong trend, with attention on the pressure at the 80,000 yuan mark. The aluminum price is expected to continue to stabilize and recover, and the monthly positive spread can be considered. The nickel price may run weakly [5][6][7] Group 3: Summary of Industry Dynamics Copper - Freeport - McMoRan Inc. believes that the copper tariffs threatened by former US President Trump may backfire and lead to a decline in copper demand. China's Sinomine Resource Group has suspended copper smelting operations at its Tsumeb plant in Namibia due to a shortage of copper concentrates caused by the rapid expansion of global smelting capacity [9] Aluminum - In May 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production index increased steadily, while the alumina production index decreased slightly. On June 10, the cast aluminum alloy futures were listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. In 2024, China's recycled copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc production reached 19.15 million tons, accounting for 24% of the production of ten non - ferrous metals, with recycled aluminum production exceeding 10 million tons and a carbon emission reduction contribution rate of over 85% [10] Nickel - On June 11, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2507 contract, with different prices for various types of nickel [11] Group 4: Summary of Related Charts Copper - The report provides charts of copper basis, monthly spread, domestic visible inventory, overseas exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15] Aluminum - The report includes charts of aluminum basis, domestic social inventory, overseas exchange inventory, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27] Nickel - The report presents charts of nickel basis, monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][43]