投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 11 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观利好再现，钢矿震荡走高 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.67%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹现实矛盾不大，悲观预期修复驱动下钢价震荡企稳，但供需双弱局 面下基本面并未好转，淡季上行驱动也不强，后续走势料将延续低位震 荡运行，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价低位回升，录得 0.78%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，供强需弱局面下热卷基本面有所走弱，库存开始增加，热卷价格继 续承压运行，相对利好则是中美贸易风险暂缓，预计后续延续低位震荡 运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价再度走强，录得 1.00%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，市场情绪回暖，贴水矿价震荡走高，但供强需弱局面铁矿石基本面 在走弱，矿价仍易承压，上行驱动不强，预计矿价延续低位震荡运行态 势，关注铁水变化情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: China's economy shows a mixed trend with some indicators stable and others indicating weak recovery. Global economic growth is expected to slow, and trade disputes and policy uncertainties remain challenges. [21] - **Commodity Market**: The casting aluminum alloy futures had a positive debut. Metal production and inventory levels vary, and energy - related policies and supply - demand dynamics affect the energy market. Agricultural products have different supply - demand situations. [2][4] - **Financial Market**: The bond market is expected to have a volatile trend, with potential opportunities in credit bonds. The stock market shows different trends in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks, and institutional investors have different stances. The foreign exchange market has fluctuations in exchange rates. [23][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 49.5%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down from the previous month and the same period last year. [1] - In April 2025, social financing scale increment decreased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. M0, M1, and M2 showed different growth rates year - on - year. [1] - In May 2025, CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year. PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, lower than the previous month and the same period last year. [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - On June 10, all contracts of casting aluminum alloy futures closed higher, with the main AD2511 contract rising 4.49% to 19,190 yuan/ton. [2] - The first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued on June 10. [2] - On June 10, 43 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 18 had negative basis. [2] - Policies were introduced to promote the high - quality development of the real economy in Shenzhen and improve people's livelihood. [2][3] 3.2.2 Metal - In April, Chile's copper production increased 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons. [4] - On June 9, copper, tin, zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, while cobalt and aluminum alloy inventories remained stable. [4][5] - As of June 10, the gold持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF decreased by 0.03% from the previous trading day. [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Iron and Steel Association called on the steel and automotive industries to break the "involution". [6] - Zimbabwe plans to ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027. [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The National Energy Administration will carry out hydrogen energy pilot projects. [8] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China in July will decrease slightly but remain strong. [8] - The EU plans to impose new sanctions on Russia regarding the Nord Stream pipeline and oil price cap. [8] - Russia extended the ban on selling oil to buyers who comply with the price cap. [9] - EIA adjusted the average price forecasts of WTI and Brent crude oil for this year and next year. [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - On June 11, 10,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be purchased through bidding. [12] - India is expected to increase sugar exports in the 2025/26 season. [12] - South Korea's egg prices reached a four - year high in May, and prices are expected to rise in June and August. [12] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 10, the central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. [13] 3.3.2 Important News - The China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting continued on June 10. [15] - Policies were introduced to deepen reforms in Shenzhen and improve people's livelihood. [15] - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium with science - and - technology - based private enterprises. [16] - New policy - based financial instruments are expected to drive trillions of yuan in investment. [16] - As of June 10, the new issuance scale of land reserve special bonds this year reached 108.348 billion yuan. [16] - Many bond funds are "restricting purchases". [17] - The asset - securitization market has developed significantly this year. [17] - Newly issued savings bonds on June 10 had lower interest rates but were still popular. [18] - As of June 10, the issuance scale of commercial banks' "Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds" this year reached 770.16 billion yuan. [18] - The restructuring plan of Red Star Macalline was approved. [18] - New green and innovative medium - term notes and science - and - technology innovation bonds were successfully issued. [19][20] - Some local governments are strengthening debt and financial supervision. [20][21] - The World Bank and Fitch adjusted their global economic and sovereign rating outlooks. [21] - Japan may adjust its government bond purchase policy. [21] - Some bond - related companies had negative events, and some companies' credit ratings were adjusted. [22] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market showed slight fluctuations, with an optimistic atmosphere. [23] - Some bonds had price increases and decreases in the exchange - traded bond market. [23] - The convertible bond market had mixed performance. [24] - Most money market interest rates showed different trends. [25] - European and US bond yields had different trends due to various factors. [26][27] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar had different changes. [29] - The US dollar index rose slightly, and non - US currencies had mixed performance. [29] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different investment institutions have different views on the bond market, including the continuation of volatility, potential for interest rate decline, and the attractiveness of credit bonds. [30] - Regarding the stock market, some institutions are optimistic about Chinese stocks, especially technology stocks. [36] 3.4 Stock Market News - A - share indices declined in the afternoon, with TMT sectors adjusting and some sectors rising. [34] - Hong Kong stock indices also declined, with different sector performances. [35] - Hundred - billion private equity funds have increased their positions in A - shares, indicating an optimistic outlook. [35] - UBS maintains a "neutral" stance on Chinese stocks and an "attractive" rating on Chinese technology stocks. [36] - More than 60% of active equity funds have recovered from losses, and there may be opportunities in technology stocks. [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 11, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide investors with data for potential arbitrage opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Base Difference**: From June 4 to June 10, 2025, the base difference was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads were all 0 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities** - **Base Difference**: For INE crude oil on June 10, 2025, the base difference was - 14.42 yuan/ton; for fuel oil, it was 191.19 yuan/ton. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1328 [10]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP were 45, 119, 243, 144, and 609 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of natural rubber was 35 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month - 1 - month spread was - 890 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2294 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PP spread was 158 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were 126, 104, - 11.8, and 46 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread was 3 yuan/ton, and the 10 - month - 1 - month spread was 4 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.26, and the rebar/coke ratio was 2.2046 [16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market** - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 510, 160, 295, - 50, 1590, and 1390 yuan/ton respectively [24]. - **London Market** - **LME Premiums and Discounts**: On June 10, 2025, the LME premiums and discounts of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 84.10, 7.37, - 33.05, - 27.55, - 194.17, and 5.00 respectively [31]. - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 8.11, 8.09, 8.27, 8.48, 7.91, and 8.10 respectively [31]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were - 1172.72, - 1399.92, - 536.36, 313.62, - 1058.35, and - 21434.71 yuan/ton respectively [31]. Agricultural Products - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn were - 119, 0, - 51, 332, and 1 yuan/ton respectively [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For soybeans No.1, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread was 9 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month - 1 - month spread was 110 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: On June 10, 2025, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.77, and the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.56 [40]. Stock Index Futures - **Base Difference**: On June 10, 2025, the base differences of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 24.47, 16.40, 39.79, and 47.89 respectively [48]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For CSI 300, the next - month - current - month spread was - 38.2, and the current - quarter - current - month spread was - 67.6 [48].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trends of gold and nickel are both in a volatile state, with an intraday view of being weakly volatile, and the reference view is to wait and see [1]. - For gold, due to the easing of Sino - US relations, the gold price is under pressure, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to weaken [1][3]. - For nickel, the upstream is strong and the downstream is weak, and the nickel price may run weakly after breaking through the key level [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: wait and see [1]. - **Driving Logic**: After the Sino - US Geneva meeting on May 12, Sino - US relations tend to ease, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold - silver ratio declined significantly in June due to the rise of silver, and it is expected to continue to weaken [3]. Nickel - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: wait and see [1]. - **Driving Logic**: The upstream ore end is tight, the downstream demand is weak, the domestic nickel inventory is decreasing from a high level while the overseas inventory is rising. After the nickel price breaks below the 122,000 mark, the futures price may run weakly [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 预期现实博弈，矿价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 中美贸易谈判预期向好，市场情绪回暖，驱动黑色金属低位回升，但铁矿石供需格局在走弱，矿 石终端消耗高位回落，且淡季存有减量空间，需求利好效应趋弱；相反财年末海外矿商冲量，矿石发 运积极，即便内矿生产受限 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trading logic of the bean market still comes from weather themes, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. However, the intraday performance of varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil is expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The optimistic expectation of Sino - US trade continues to ferment, and the US soybean shows weather - market fluctuations. The domestic soybean market is continuously boosted by the US soybean futures price. As China's purchases return to the US market, the US soybean futures price is boosted. The short - term trading logic of the bean market comes from weather themes, and the structure between contracts has subtle changes, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. Intraday, it follows the short - term fluctuations of the US soybean futures price and mainly runs in a weakly volatile manner. Other factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery start - up rhythm, and stocking demand [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Yesterday's Malaysian palm report showed that Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for 3 consecutive months. Although the increase was less than market expectations, it still put pressure on the palm oil market. Currently, the game between Malaysian palm oil production increase and strong exports continues. Later, attention still needs to be paid to the suppression of the Malaysian palm oil futures price by inventory pressure. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force, and its short - term trend follows the international oil market and runs in a weakly volatile manner. Other factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6][7]. Soybean Oil - **Viewpoints**: Short - term:震荡; Medium - term:震荡; Intraday:震荡偏弱; Reference view:震荡偏弱 [6] - **Core Logic**: Influencing factors include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, they will mainly oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, and the overall view is oscillation, with the core logic being the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued narrow - range oscillation and consolidation yesterday. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, and the consultation result is highly uncertain. Due to the deepening of the uncertainty of tariff prospects and the marginal weakening of domestic macro - economic indicators, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged. The market's expectation of future easing policies will rise, providing strong support at the bottom of treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the effect of monetary tools may be less than that of fiscal tools, so the possibility of boosting demand through continuous interest rate cuts in the short term is not high [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 低位震荡 | 多空交织，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 多空僵持，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：低位震荡 核心逻辑：6 月 10 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约偏强震荡运行，夜盘报收于 78 ...

Group 1 - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has improved and steel prices have stabilized in an oscillatory manner [2]. - The market sentiment has improved, and steel prices have rebounded from the low level. The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the output of rebar is continuously decreasing. The demand for rebar in the off - season is poor, and high - frequency indicators are running weakly. The current contradiction of rebar is not significant. Driven by the repair of pessimistic expectations, steel prices have stabilized in an oscillatory manner, but the fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force in the off - season is not strong. The subsequent trend is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指早盘均震荡整理，午后快速下跌，全天收跌。消息面上，中美经贸磋商机制首 次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。目前磋商结果仍具有较高不确定性，市场情绪以 ...