Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both coking coal and coke futures contracts 2601 are mainly in a state of oscillation. Coking coal is expected to experience an oscillating correction due to the cooling of strong supply expectations, while coke will show range - bound oscillations as the market's wait - and - see sentiment increases [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Movement Views**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating [5]. - **Core Logic**: As of the week ending September 19, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 million tons but 3.3 million tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port last week returned to the highest level this year, with the daily number of passing trucks around 1300 - 1400. On the demand side, the combined daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 113.37 million tons, almost unchanged week - on - week. Although the current fundamental support for coking coal is insufficient, the downstream restocking expectation before the National Day and the coal mine's end - of - month production reduction expectation support the price, driving the main coking coal contract to maintain high - level oscillations [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Movement Views**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating [6]. - **Core Logic**: As of the week ending September 19, the combined daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 113.37 million tons, almost unchanged week - on - week. The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 241.02 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 million tons. During the week, coke inventory shifted downstream. The inventory of independent coking plants was 66.41 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.43 million tons; the coke inventory of steel mills' coking plants was 644.67 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.38 million tons; the total inventory was 915.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.94 million tons. As the National Day holiday approaches, the pre - holiday restocking demand supports the spot price. Currently, the fundamental contradiction of coke is not prominent, the market wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and the futures will show range - bound oscillations. The future trend depends on whether there are new benefits from the anti - involution policy [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy shows a complex situation with different indicators having various trends. For example, GDP growth has a slight decline, while some monetary indicators like M1 have an upward trend [1]. - The financial market is affected by multiple factors. The LPR remains stable currently, but there may be changes in the fourth quarter. The bond market has fluctuations, and the stock market has different performances in different regions [3][11][28]. - Different industries have their own development characteristics. The gold industry has a high - price trend, the steel industry has a new work plan, and the energy and agricultural industries also have corresponding developments [4][6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data速览 - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year (4.7%) [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in August 2025 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year, while M0 and M2 had slight changes [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, but the decline of PPI narrowed compared to the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) and total retail sales of consumer goods were 0.5% and 4.64% respectively [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - As of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets are nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond market sizes rank second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserve has ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years [2]. - The 9 - month LPR quote remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. It is expected that the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On September 22, the COMEX gold futures price exceeded $3,760 per ounce, and many gold - related A - share listed companies' stock prices rose significantly [4]. - In August, the global primary aluminum production was 6.277 million tons, and the expected production in China was 3.764 million tons [5]. - In July, Mexico's silver, copper, and gold production were 323,844 kg, 38,355 tons, and 6,048 kg respectively [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the steel industry's added value in the next two years [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Four departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High - quality Development of Energy Equipment", deploying 13 key tasks [7]. - As of September 22, the cumulative natural gas production in the Sichuan - Chongqing exploration area of Daqing Oilfield exceeded 4 billion cubic meters [7]. - Iraq plans to restart crude oil exports from the Kurdish region, and Saudi Arabia's crude oil inventory decreased in July [8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Jilin Province calculated the subsidy standards for corn, rice, and high - quality soybeans in 2025, which are 48.95 yuan/mu, 86.2 yuan/mu, and 27.8 yuan/mu respectively [9]. - As of last Thursday, the planting area of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season was expected to have completed 0.9% of the expected area [9]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank announced that the 1 - year and over - 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. It is expected that the policy interest rate and LPR may be cut before the end of the year [11]. - On September 22, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 26.05 billion yuan [11]. 3.3.2 Important News - The central bank governor introduced that as of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets are nearly 470 trillion yuan, and the financial risks are generally controllable during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [12]. - The financial regulatory authorities introduced the development of the banking, insurance, and other industries, and relevant departments mentioned debt management and risk prevention [13][14]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined, and the bond futures closed higher. The money market rates showed different trends [18][20]. - The yields of European and US bonds had different changes, and the central bank successfully issued 60 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong [21][22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1148, down 23 points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate rose 22 points [23]. - The US dollar index fell 0.36%, and most non - US currencies rose [23]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income believes that the issuance and net financing of local bonds are expected to increase this week, and the current local - bond minus treasury - bond spread has low value for exploration [24]. - Guoxin Fixed - Income believes that the Fed's entry into the interest - rate cut cycle is beneficial to global risk - asset investment sentiment, and attention should be paid to the allocation value of bank convertible bonds [24]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The CSRC will accelerate the implementation of a new round of comprehensive deep - level capital market reform tasks and improve relevant systems [27]. - A - share major indexes rose, with technology stocks attracting funds. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3,828.58 points, and the total trading volume was 2.14 trillion yuan [28]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.76%, and the south - bound funds had a net purchase of HK$12.736 billion [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on September 23, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Catalog Power Coal - The basis data from September 16 to 22, 2025, shows that the basis on September 22 was - 96.4 yuan/ton, gradually increasing from - 113.4 yuan/ton on September 16. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from September 16 to 22, 2025, and their price ratios and basis values are presented. For example, on September 22, the basis of INE crude oil was 84.22 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 16 to 22, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 22 was - 915 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol for 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was - 20 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 16 to 22, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 22, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2198 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 16 to 22, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on September 22 was 105.0 yuan/ton [21] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal for 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9(10) - month vs 1 - month, and 9(10) - month vs 5 - month are provided. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 16 to 22, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 22, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.92 [20] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 16 to 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of copper on September 22 was - 30 yuan/ton [28] - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 22, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (72.44) [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 16 to 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 22 was 148 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products for 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 16 to 22, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 22, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.81 [40] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 16 to 22, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 22 was 38.61 [51] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for next - month vs current - month and next - quarter vs current - quarter are provided. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 15.6 [51]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价延续震荡 | 观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 假期临近套利资金离场，品种强弱有所切换，且螺纹钢供需格局有所改善，螺纹周产环比下 降，供应延续收缩，但旺季减产力度存疑，且库存相对偏高，利好效应不强。与此同时，螺纹钢需 求边际改善，高频指标低位回升，但仍是同期低位，且下游行业未好 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that Treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term, with both upward and downward pressures. There is potential for medium - to long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of an immediate full - scale rate cut is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "sideways - bullish", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is that there are still medium - to long - term expectations of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term full - scale rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "sideways - bullish", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". - The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. Although the September LPR remained unchanged, there is still potential for medium - to long - term interest rate cuts. The weak credit data in August, the marginal slowdown in consumption growth, and the weak inflation data have increased the expectation of macro - policies to stabilize demand in the fourth quarter. With the Fed's rate cut in September and two more expected cuts this year, there is still an expectation of monetary easing in the future, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium - to long - term. - However, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. Firstly, there is no high need for an immediate full - scale rate cut, which needs to be coordinated with fiscal policies. Secondly, the stock - bond seesaw effect suppresses the demand for Treasury bonds [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。随着近日美联储 9 月降息预期兑现以后，本周一夜盘国内甲醇期 货 2601 合约维持震荡偏弱的走势，期价略微收低 0.17%至 2349 元/吨。预计本 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 补库利好趋弱，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化，钢厂生产平稳，矿石终端消耗维持高位，需求表现尚可，给予矿价支 撑，但下游钢市矛盾在累积，且补库利好趋弱，需求韧性将转弱。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅增加， 海外矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应依旧偏高，叠加内矿供应也在恢复，供应压力有所增加。目前 来看， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall view for major agricultural commodity futures (including soymeal, palm oil, etc.) is mostly "oscillating weakly" in the short - term and "oscillating" in the medium - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: News about Sino - US trade relations affects market sentiment. The domestic soybean industry chain is weak, with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a negative basis for soymeal. Short - term prices will be weak, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream stocking, Sino - US trade progress, and import purchasing [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Import profit inversion restricts new purchases. High near - month arrivals and limited downstream demand lead to inventory pressure. The short - term market lacks a single driver and is affected by policy expectations, export data, and inventory changes [7]. Other Related Varieties (as shown in the table) - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Views are oscillating in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with a reference view of oscillating weakly. Influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Views are oscillating in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with a reference view of oscillating weakly. Influencing factors include its biodiesel property, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the long - term outlook is strong, with a short - term upward trend, a medium - term upward trend, and an intraday oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. For copper, the short - term view is strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly stronger [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, Shanghai gold increased in price with significant position - building. The main contract price rose nearly 10 yuan/gram during the day, remained strong at night, reaching the 850 - yuan mark. New York gold approached 3800 dollars, and London gold approached 3750 dollars [3] - **Driving Logic**: After the Fed's September interest rate cut, the closing of long positions on Friday came to an end. The US dollar index declined, and the gold price broke through the previous high, showing an accelerating upward trend in the short term. The medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term support can be observed at the 5 - and 10 - day moving averages [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the copper price first declined and then rose, and the position of Shanghai copper continued to decline, indicating reduced capital attention [4] - **Driving Logic**: At the macro level, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the closing of long positions on Friday ended, and the resurgence of the upward trend in gold and silver is expected to drive up the copper price. At the industrial level, due to the high - level decline in copper prices and the industrial peak season, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory has increased, and the accumulation of electrolytic copper slowed down on Monday. After the short - term interest rate meeting, macro disturbances decreased and industrial influence increased, resulting in a relatively weak overall copper price trend. Attention should be paid to the domestic inventory situation, and technically, the 80,000 - yuan technical support level should be monitored [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and the synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract are expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends showing oscillations, and intraday trends being weakly oscillating [1][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Futures Contracts - For the Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillating, with the intraday being weakly oscillating, and the reference view is a weak operation; for the synthetic rubber (BR) 2511 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillating, with the intraday being weakly oscillating, and the reference view is also a weak operation [1] 2. Price Calculation and Fluctuation Standards - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day, used to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, an increase of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3] - The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating only apply to intraday views, not to short - term and medium - term views [4] 3. Price and Driving Logic of Specific Futures Contracts Shanghai Rubber (RU) - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.26% at 15,600 yuan/ton in the night trading on Monday. Due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as expected and the dot - plot showing a slower - than - expected future interest rate cut schedule, along with the supply increase in the rubber market, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - The synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract closed slightly up 0.04% at 11,500 yuan/ton in the night trading on Monday. Due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as expected and the dot - plot showing a slower - than - expected future interest rate cut schedule, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [6]