投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铝持续增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价低开低走后在 7.85 万一线企稳，今日铜价上午小幅反 弹，午后再度走弱。短期白银冲高回落，铜价也随之回落。产业层 面，6 月 12 日 Mysteel 电解铜社库为 14.38 万吨，较上周去库 1.37 万吨，7-8 月差走强，给予铜价支撑。短期关注 7.9 万一线多空博 弈。 沪铝 今日铝价增仓上行，主力期价由 2.02 万拉升至 2.04 万。周三以 来铝价增仓上行趋势明显，7-8 月差也持续上行。近 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly. The short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillatory, while the intraday trend is oscillatory and bullish. It is anticipated that the domestic crude oil futures on Thursday will maintain an oscillatory and bullish trend [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the crude oil 2507 contract, the short - term, medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and bullish. The reference view is a bullish run, with the core logic being the intensification of geopolitical risks [1]. 3.2 Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Energy and Chemicals Sector of Commodity Futures - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory and bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is a bullish run. The core logic includes positive signals from the China - US leaders' phone call, the potential cooling of the China - US tariff war, the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, concerns about the breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, as well as the OPEC+ countries' lower - than - expected production increase in April - May. International crude oil futures prices rose by over 5% on Wednesday night, and the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract closed up 3.37% to 497.4 yuan per barrel [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly stronger than volatile trend on Thursday, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, and a reference view of running stronger [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Methanol Market Analysis - **Price Movement**: On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.35% to 2288 yuan/ton [5] - **Driving Factors** - **Macro - factors**: Positive signals from the phone call between Chinese and US leaders, an invitation for the US to visit China, and a consensus on tariffs in London have led to an improvement in the macro - factor as optimism rises [5] - **Industrial Factors**: The domestic methanol supply pressure has increased again, downstream demand improvement is limited, the futures contract profit of methanol - to - olefins has declined, and the port inventory is difficult to further reduce. With an expected increase in imports, the future social inventory accumulation pressure is rising [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/11 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/10 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/09 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/06 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/05 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.14% to 13,815 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the leaders of China and the United States had a phone call, releasing positive signals. There is an expectation that the China - US tariff war will cool down, and the two sides reached further tariff consensus in London. Under the background of rising optimism, the macro - factor has gradually strengthened. Currently, the natural rubber producing areas at home and abroad are in the full - scale tapping stage, with raw material output steadily increasing and new rubber supply gradually rising. With the macro - factor overriding the weak industrial factor, it is expected that on Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2508 contract slightly rose 0.55% to 11,045 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the macro - factor has gradually strengthened due to the positive signals from the China - US phone call. Currently, OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the production increase rhythm, and the crude oil demand expectation is weak. With the macro - factor overriding the weak industrial factor, it is expected that on Thursday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2508 contract may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trading logic of the soybean market comes from weather themes and the prospects of Sino - US trade relations, with a continued staged rebound trend. The internal and external soybean futures prices are still in an upward - prone and downward - resistant pattern [5]. - Although there is disappointment about the lack of agricultural content in the details of the Sino - US trade agreement, soybean oil prices are supported by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy. The short - term futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, which drives up domestic soybean oil prices [7]. - The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, putting pressure on the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term, with limited rebound space [8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US principles have reached an agreement framework, with positive expectations for US soybean exports. The US soybean futures prices continue to show weather - market volatility characteristics [5]. 3.2. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy, the futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, bringing a linkage boost to domestic soybean oil prices [7]. 3.3. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, and the market is under pressure. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 中美关系趋于缓和，金价冲高回 落，上方阻力较大 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势 | 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：美国 5 月通胀低于市场预期，数据公布后，美元美债收益 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate strongly. The overall view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being the marginal weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that yesterday, all national debt futures oscillated and rebounded slightly. The results of Sino - US economic and trade measures in London are highly uncertain, and investors are waiting and watching. The recently released macro - economic data has weakened, increasing the market's expectation of future monetary easing, providing strong bottom support for national debt futures. However, currently, fiscal policy has stronger marginal effectiveness than monetary policy. In the short term, financial policies need to wait for policy guidance from the Lujiazui Forum on June 18, and the possibility of continuous interest rate cuts in the short term is low. Overall, it is expected that national debt futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Time - cycle and Variety - specific Views - For TL2509, short - term (within one week) is oscillatory, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and stronger, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the marginal weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. Price -行情 and Driving Logic - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is oscillatory and stronger, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The driving factors include the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade measures, weakening macro - economic data, and the need to wait for policy guidance from the Lujiazui Forum [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is slightly bullish. Although there are some factors restricting the upward movement of the stock index, the bottom - support from policies is strong, and the downward risk in the short term is low[1][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is slightly bullish, with an overall view of range - bound. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support[1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound. Yesterday, each stock index rebounded slightly. The total stock market turnover was 1286.6 billion yuan, a reduction of 164.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The result of Sino - US economic and trade consultations is highly uncertain, and the market sentiment is mainly one of waiting and watching. Overseas uncertainties and weak domestic demand suppress the upward momentum of the stock index. However, the weakening of macro - economic indicators increases the expectation of policy support, and the bottom - support of the market is sufficient. The marginal effect of the negative impact of the tariff war is weak, and the short - term downward risk of the market is low[4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, with the price of iron ore 2509 showing short - term, medium - term oscillations and intraday weak oscillations, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA10 line [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillating. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA10 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the ore price continues to oscillate [1] Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakly stable. Terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing and there is room for further reduction in the off - season, while overseas miners are actively shipping at the end of the fiscal year. Although domestic ore production is restricted, the supply pressure remains. The price of discounted ore has oscillated upward due to the repair of pessimistic expectations, but the supply - strong and demand - weak situation makes the fundamentals weak, and the upward driving force is not strong [2]