Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties by Baocheng Futures on September 24, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide data references for investors [1][5][21][27][37][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis data of power coal from September 17 to September 23, 2025. The basis on September 23 was - 96.4 yuan/ton, showing a gradual increase compared with previous days [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: It includes the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 17 to September 23, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 23 was 7.56 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 23 was - 825 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber being - 45 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 23 was 2205 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown, like the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar being 57.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on September 23 was 3.94 [20]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are provided. For instance, the basis of rebar on September 23 was 95.0 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on September 23 was 60 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: The LME spread, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on September 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (73.11) [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 23 was 182 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of multiple agricultural products are shown, such as the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 being 41 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on September 23 was 1.80 [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 17 to September 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 23 was 35.98 [49]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 9.4 [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to maintain a downward - prone trend due to weak supply - demand fundamentals, with high supply pressure from device resumption and increasing external imports, as well as sluggish downstream demand [2][9] Summary by Related Aspects Supply - Since the third quarter of this year, methanol supply in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America has been abundant. Iranian device restarted with increased operating rate, and India's shift to non - Iranian sources led to more Iranian shipments to China. Excess methanol from Europe also flowed to China, pushing up imports. It's estimated that China's methanol imports in August might be 1.4 - 1.5 million tons and could remain at 1.4 - 1.45 million tons in September [2][4] - Since September, some domestic methanol devices have been under maintenance, causing a decline in weekly operating rate and output. As of September 19, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, down 1.81% week - on - week, 1.26% month - on - month, and 1.53% year - on - year. The weekly output was 1.8132 million tons, down 0.1061 million tons week - on - week, 0.0842 million tons month - on - month, and 0.0302 million tons year - on - year. September output is expected to drop to 7.8 million tons, but supply pressure will increase again after the National Day as devices resume production [3] Demand - Although the domestic methanol market has entered the traditional peak consumption season, the recovery of olefin demand has fallen short of expectations. As of September 19, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin devices was 82.88%, up 3.58% month - on - month, and the futures profit was - 183 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month [5][7] - The traditional downstream demand for methanol was also under - performing. As of September 19, the formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, up 1.06 percentage points week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, down 0.11 percentage points week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, down 3.84 percentage points week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, up 1.85 percentage points week - on - week [7] Inventory - As of September 19, the methanol inventory in ports of East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, up 0.0625 million tons week - on - week, 0.3956 million tons month - on - month, and 0.4872 million tons year - on - year. The high import volume and weak downstream demand led to a continuous increase in coastal port methanol inventory [4] Market Performance - Since this week, the main contract MA2601 of domestic methanol futures has continued a weak and volatile trend, with the price center steadily moving down to the range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The reference view for TL2512 is to oscillate, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillation, oscillation, and weakly oscillating respectively. The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The short - term interest rate cut expectation has subsided due to the central bank governor's statement and the unchanged September LPR. However, in the long - run, due to insufficient domestic effective demand and reduced RMB exchange - rate pressure from the Fed's rate cut, the possibility of a loose monetary policy is high, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. In the short - term, with the reduced interest rate cut expectation, treasury bond futures lack upward momentum and are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is the co - existence of long - and medium - term interest rate cut expectations and the low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The short - term interest rate cut expectation has faded because the central bank governor said there would be no short - term policy at the National New Conference on Monday and the September LPR remained unchanged. In the long - run, due to insufficient domestic effective demand and reduced RMB exchange - rate pressure from the Fed's rate cut, the future monetary policy is likely to be loose, strongly supporting treasury bond futures. But in the short - term, with the decreased interest rate cut expectation, treasury bond futures lack upward momentum and are expected to oscillate at a low level [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The core logic lies in the game between the short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the long - and medium - term fermentation of policy - favorable expectations [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term funds' profit - taking intention and the fermentation of long - and medium - term policy - favorable expectations [1] 2. Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that yesterday, each stock index oscillated widely and recovered after reaching the bottom. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 251.86 billion yuan, an increase of 37.6 billion yuan from the previous day. There is a certain divergence in market sentiment, focusing on the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations. On one hand, there is still a demand for profit - taking of profitable funds; on the other hand, policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds constitute the long - and medium - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index. The fermentation of policy - favorable expectations depends on the October key meeting, and the increase in incremental funds can be seen from the fact that the margin trading balance has exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan and the year - on - year significant increase in new non - bank deposits in July and August. In general, the stock index is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday bias towards a strong oscillation. Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a medium - term oscillation and an intraday bias towards a strong oscillation [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: This week, Shanghai gold increased in price with increasing positions. The main contract price rose nearly 30 yuan/gram, reaching the 860 - yuan mark, corresponding to New York gold reaching 3800 US dollars and London gold standing above 3750 US dollars [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The main driving factor is the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. After Fed Chairman Powell showed a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price started to rise. Technically, the gold price broke through the oscillation range since the second quarter, with strong upward momentum. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the liquidation of long positions ended last Friday, the US dollar index declined, and the gold price broke through the previous high, showing a short - term accelerating upward trend. The medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Long - term strong, short - term and medium - term upward, intraday oscillation with a strong bias. Short - term support can be observed at the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price oscillated around the 80,000 - yuan level, and the night - session oscillation continued with a narrowing amplitude, and the trading volume changed little [5]. - **Driving Factors**: Macroscopically, after the Fed's interest rate cut, gold and silver resumed their upward trends, which is expected to drive up the copper price. Industrially, the copper price dropped from a high level and it is the industrial peak season, so the downstream replenishment willingness increased, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased on Monday. Short - term macroeconomic conditions are improving, and the pre - holiday replenishment willingness in the industry is strong [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term strong, medium - term oscillation, intraday oscillation with a strong bias. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 80,000 - yuan level [1][5].

Report Core View - Market trends are cyclical, with alternating periods of "integration" and "separation" similar to the rise and fall of the Three Kingdoms [2][3][4] - Traders should observe market changes, follow trends, and have patience and determination in holding positions during different market cycles [3][4][5] - Market cycles are not determined by fate but can be influenced by human strategies, and traders should choose trading cycles based on their own circumstances [4] Grouped by Historical Events and Market Analogies 1. Market "Integration" Phase - During the early stage of Cao Cao's rule, the market was in an "integration" state with orderly supply, stable demand, and price fluctuations within a narrow range [2] 2. Transition from "Integration" to "Separation" - The locust plague in the seventh year of Jian'an led to a supply - demand imbalance, similar to a market shift from "integration" to "separation" where prices soared [2] 3. Market Retracement and Consolidation - When Zhuge Liang governed Shu and launched six expeditions to the Qishan Mountains, the temporary setbacks were like market retracements during an upward trend, which are short - term "integration" within a "separation" phase [3] 4. Holding Position Strategy - Sima Yi's strategy of waiting patiently in the face of Zhuge Liang's attacks is analogous to the wisdom of holding positions in futures trading, emphasizing not being influenced by short - term fluctuations [3] 5. "Black Swan" Events in the Market - Deng Ai's surprise attack on Shu was like a "black swan" event in the financial market, which can change the market pattern unexpectedly [3] 6. Market "Separation" to "Integration" - The fall of the Three Kingdoms and the reunification under the Jin Dynasty represent the market's return to balance after a long - term "separation" phase, following the law of mean reversion [4]

Macroeconomic Data Overview - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2025 is reported at 5.20%, a decrease from 5.40% in the previous quarter and an increase from 4.70% in the same period last year [1] - The Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is at 49.40, slightly up from 49.30 in July and up from 49.10 year-on-year [1] - The Non-Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is at 50.30, showing a slight increase from 50.10 in July and unchanged from the previous year [1] - The total social financing scale for August 2025 is reported at 25,668 billion yuan, a significant increase from 11,307 million yuan in July and a decrease from 30,323 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The CPI for August 2025 shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.40%, compared to 0.00% in July and 0.60% last year [1] - The PPI for August 2025 shows a year-on-year decrease of 2.90%, an improvement from a decrease of 3.60% in July and a decrease of 1.80% last year [1] Commodity Investment Reference - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that stock prices are currently overvalued but stated that financial stability risks are not high at this time [2] - The U.S. White House's cryptocurrency committee executive director expects the cryptocurrency market structure bill to pass by the end of the year, which aims to consolidate various legislative efforts [2] - The SEC chairman expressed hopes for a new "innovation exemption" rule to be introduced by the end of the year, allowing cryptocurrency companies to launch products more easily [2] Metals - As of September 23, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 32,169,273.34 ounces (1,000.57 tons) of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.58% to $3,796.9 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 0.12% to $44.265 per ounce [4] Steel Industry - A notice from five departments outlines a growth stabilization plan for the steel industry for 2025-2026, emphasizing the acceleration of key iron ore projects and supporting compliant mining enterprises [6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth rate of 4% over the next two years, with a strict prohibition on new capacity [7] Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices have risen sharply, with U.S. crude oil main contract up by 2.20% to $63.65 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up by 1.85% to $67.19 per barrel [8] - The Russian government is discussing extending the export ban on gasoline producers until October and is considering a possible ban on diesel exports [8] - Kuwait's oil minister noted a recovery in global oil demand as oil inventories fall below the five-year average [8] Agricultural Products - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council indicates that upward price potential is limited due to weak demand, while uncertainties in export supply provide some support [10] - Brazil's agriculture ministry announced the reopening of the EU market for Brazilian chicken following an outbreak of avian influenza [10] Financial Market Overview - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 276.1 billion yuan on September 23, with a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan for the day [11] - The People's Bank of China governor met with Ray Dalio to discuss international economic conditions and financial market dynamics [12] - Concerns over local government special bond risks have drawn attention from the National People's Congress, highlighting the rapid growth of government debt [13] Stock Market News - The A-share market experienced wide fluctuations, with major banks showing stability and significant gains in semiconductor equipment and photolithography concepts [27] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.7%, with declines in consumer, real estate, and healthcare sectors [27] - Since the release of the "merger and acquisition six guidelines," over 2,800 A-share companies have disclosed M&A activities, with a notable increase in transactions in the semiconductor sector [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation on the strong side". The overall view is that coking coal and coke will oscillate. For coking coal, it's due to the combination of long and short factors; for coke, it's because of the support from the spot market [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1,210 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [5]. - **Supply**: Last week, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 tons, and 3.3 tons lower than the same period last year. The number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the 288 Port last week returned to the highest level this year, with the daily clearance vehicles around 1,300 - 1,400 [5]. - **Demand**: The combined daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 113.37 tons, with a week - on - week flat [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The real - world fundamentals of coking coal lack support, but the downstream restocking expectation before the National Day and the coal mine production reduction expectation at the end of the month support the price, driving the main contract to maintain high - level oscillation [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.67% [6]. - **Supply**: The combined daily average output of coke according to the Steel Union's statistics last week was 113.37 tons, with a week - on - week flat [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 241.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 tons. As the National Day holiday approaches, the pre - holiday restocking demand supports the spot price [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamental contradictions of coke are not prominent, the market is in a wait - and - see mood, the futures oscillate within a range, and the future trend depends on whether there are new positive factors in the anti - involution policy [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soybean meal market, due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on grains and by - products, the global supply of soybeans and by - products faces shocks. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, and concerns about short - term supply persist. With the approaching National Day holiday, market funds prefer short - term trading, and after the release of market sentiment, the market may stop falling and stabilize [5]. - In the palm oil market, the domestic import profit is in a reverse state, which restricts new purchases. There is an inventory pressure due to more arrivals in the near - month and limited downstream demand. The short - term market lacks a single driver and shows a wide - range shock [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Argentina's export tax suspension affects global supply. Domestic supply pressure is rising, and attention should be paid to arrivals in the fourth quarter. Near the National Day holiday, funds focus on short - term trading, and the market may stabilize after the release of emotions [5] - **Core Logic Summary**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Domestic import profit inversion restricts new purchases. There is inventory pressure due to more arrivals and limited demand. The short - term market is affected by policy expectations, export data, inventory changes, and neighboring oil varieties, showing a wide - range shock [7] - **Core Logic Summary**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6] 3.3 Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic Summary**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile. For Shanghai rubber, the 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Wednesday; for synthetic rubber, the 2511 contract is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Wednesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall view: strongly run [1]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The dot - plot shows two more rate cuts in Q4 2025 and only one in 2026, slower than the market's pricing of three cuts. After the rubber price center shifted down to digest market sentiment, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures stabilized on Tuesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.22% to 15,605 yuan/ton. There is resistance to further rebound [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall view: strongly run [1]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, after the Fed's rate cut and price adjustment, the 2511 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a volatile rebound on Tuesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.61% to 11,550 yuan/ton [7].