投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，周产量环比虽有所下降，但供应仍是年内高位；周度表需小幅增 加，高频成交则是低位运行，需求表现平稳，但季节性走弱预期未退，螺纹基本面并未好转，钢价 继续承压运行，相对利好的是库存低位，多空因素博弈下预计钢价延续弱势寻底态势，关注需求表 现情况。 （ ...

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 备注： 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡回调。近期国债供给端集中发行，加上较高的票面利率对稳健型资金 具有较强吸引力，令国债期货价格承压运行。消息面，财政部发布通知，拟第三次续发行 2025 年超 长期特 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-30 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日今日各股指早盘均快速上涨，不过之后走势间有所分化，中证 1000 与中证 500 高位 平稳运行，上证 50 与沪深 300 则高位回落，回吐部 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,866.58 -121.25 14,261.00 -394.42 14,859.71 -993.13 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,754.33 -171.15 9,073.03 -318.70 9,203.76 -449.43 45港铁矿石到货量 2,151.30 -120.00 2,325.30 -174.00 2,424.00 -272.70 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,188.70 -159.10 2,925.50 263.20 3,326.60 -137.90 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 241.91 -1.69 244.35 -2.44 235.83 6.08 45港日均疏港量 326.68 -0.41 327.92 -1.24 313.51 13.17 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 299.68 -2.19 301.39 -1.71 287.53 12.15 主港铁矿成交周均值 102.75 9.95 106.10 -3.35 88.84 13.91 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20250530） ...

热轧卷板周度数据（20250530） | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 | 黑色金属研究员 涂伟华 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 本周值 | 环比变化 | | 上月末值 | 本月变化 | 同期值 | | 同期变化 | | 供给 | | | 周度产量 | 319.55 | | 13.87 | 317.50 | 2.05 | 322.66 | | -3.11 | | | | | 高炉产能利用率（%） | 90.69 | | -0.63 | 91.60 | -0.91 | | 88.17 | 2.52 | | | | | 表观需求量 | 326.93 | | 13.87 | 324.36 | 2.57 | 316.59 | | 10.34 | | 需求 | | | 冷轧卷板周产量 | 88.00 | | -0.14 | 85.64 | 2.36 | | 86.25 | 1.75 | | | | | 总库存 | 332 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需预期偏空，焦煤震荡下行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 二轮降价落地，焦炭偏弱震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：下跌 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 95 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/29 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/28 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/27 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/26 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/23 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. Supply has a slight contraction but low sustainability, demand is stable with a seasonal weakening expectation, and fundamental contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices continue to be under pressure. With inventory at a low level, short - term negative factors dominate, and steel prices will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend. Attention should be paid to demand changes [2]. 3. Summary by Category Supply - Rebar weekly production was 225.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.97 tons. Supply has contracted but remains at a high level this year. Due to good steel profits, production cuts are unlikely to continue, and the supply contraction is limited [1][2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.63 percentage points [1]. Demand - Rebar weekly apparent demand was 248.68 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.55 tons. High - frequency transactions were sluggish. Both are at low levels in recent years and will seasonally weaken later. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, which easily puts pressure on steel prices [1][2]. - The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions was 10.36, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 [1]. Inventory - Total inventory was 581.05 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.17 tons, a decrease of 121.28 tons from the end of last month, and a decrease of 192.62 tons compared with the same period. Factory inventory was 186.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 tons. Social inventory was 394.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.87 tons [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The domestic thermal coal price has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized this week. However, due to the supply and inventory pressure, especially the rapid increase in port inventory in May, the coal price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations. Although there are some positive factors such as policy support, a decline in imported coal, and the approaching peak season for power coal, the current supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the expectation of a weak peak season is strong [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content - **Price and Supply - Demand Situation**: As of May 22, the price of 5500K coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 613 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The supply and inventory pressure of thermal coal still exists. The April production and imports decreased month - on - month, indicating that the supply - side pressure has not further increased. The rapid increase in port inventory in May has strongly suppressed the coal price [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of May 22, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 32.105 million tons, 6.458 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory once reached a historical high of 33 million tons within the month [4]. - **Positive Factors**: There are three positive factors in the current coal market. Firstly, the policy has sent positive signals in May, alleviating the pessimistic sentiment in non - power industries. Secondly, the cost - effectiveness of imported coal has decreased, leading to a decline in imports. Thirdly, the peak season for power coal is approaching [4].