Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern due to positive macro factors, a delayed natural rubber tapping season in Thailand, and expected improvement in raw material procurement by the domestic tire industry [6]. - The domestic methanol futures price may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern as the macro atmosphere improves and risk appetite in the methanol futures market recovers [6]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern with the improvement of the macro atmosphere and the recovery of risk appetite in the crude oil futures market [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. Bonded area inventory increased by 4.3% and general trade inventory by 0.38% [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 44.80%, a significant week - on - week drop of 14.74% and a year - on - year slight decrease of 4.40 percentage points. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.40%, a significant week - on - week drop of 8.29 percentage points and a significant year - on - year drop of 17.80 percentage points [9]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% but a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April, the cumulative sales were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [9]. - In April 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [10]. Methanol - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.14%, a week - on - week slight increase of 3.75%, a month - on - month slight increase of 4.16%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.89%. The weekly average methanol production was 2.0578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 87,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 352,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 29.05%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.22%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.21%. The operating rate of acetic acid was 92.58%, a week - on - week significant increase of 6.78%. The operating rate of MTBE was 46.41%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 4.68% [12]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.73%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.72 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.43 percentage points [12]. - As of May 9, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 289 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 1 yuan/ton and a month - on - month slight increase of 151 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 348,600 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 123,900 tons [12]. - As of the week of May 8, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 303,900 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 20,500 tons or 7.23%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 10,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 86,100 tons [13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 479, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 20 [14]. - The average daily US crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 98,000 barrels per day but a year - on - year increase of 267,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of April 25, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 438.4 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels [14]. - The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, US was 24.961 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 740,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 399 million barrels, a month - on - month slight increase of 580,000 barrels [14]. - The US refinery operating rate was 89.0%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 0.50 percentage points [14]. - Since May 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and weakening trend. As of May 6, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 175,428 contracts, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1,781 contracts but a significant increase of 15,065 contracts or 9.39% compared with the April average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 96,156 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 10,566 contracts and a significant decrease of 58,149 contracts or 37.68% compared with the April average [15]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 14,995 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | +230 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,447 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | 2,291 yuan/ton | +21 yuan/ton | +156 yuan/ton | - 29 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 436.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 470.5 yuan/barrel | - 2.1 yuan/barrel | - 34.3 yuan/barrel | +1.7 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Related Charts - The report lists various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, WTI and Brent net position changes, etc.) [18][30][42]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观利好兑现，钢矿震荡企稳 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价高位回落，录得 0.88%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，市场情绪回暖，黑色金属集体回升，但 主要下游行业未好转，螺纹需求将季节性走弱，螺纹基本面仍难实质性 改善，钢价继续承压运行，多空因素博弈下钢价延续震荡运行态势，关 注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.78%日涨幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供应高位运行，压力相对偏大，而需求有所走弱，供强需弱局 面下基本面表现偏弱，热卷价格继续承压，相对利好则是海外风险暂 缓，市场情绪修复，预计热卷价格短期震荡企稳，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价高位震荡，录得 1.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，中美贸易谈判取得实质性性进展，市场情绪回暖，驱动矿价低位回 升，但需求趋于触顶，且供应在回升，基本面预期走弱，上行空间谨慎 乐观，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号 ...

一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | 20250414 | 2025/03 | 社会融资规模增量:当 月值 | 亿元 | | 58894.00 22331.00 | 4 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/12 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/09 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/08 | -166.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/07 | -161.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/06 | -153.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term view of crude oil 2507 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory and weakening, and the intraday view is oscillatory and strengthening. It is expected to run strongly [1][5]. - The supply glut expectation of the oil market has increased due to OPEC+ accelerating production increase in June and the steady growth of US shale oil production. But as the bearish sentiment is digested, approaching the peak consumption season in mid - May, the demand factor may strengthen steadily, which will support the crude oil futures price. With the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the market risk appetite is boosted, and the domestic crude oil futures price rose 1.44% to 472.3 yuan/barrel on the night session of Monday. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract will maintain an oscillatory and strengthening trend on Tuesday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For crude oil 2507, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory and weakening, the intraday is oscillatory and strengthening, with a reference view of strong operation. The core logic is the improvement of macro - sentiment [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory and strengthening, the medium - term view is oscillatory and weakening, with a reference view of strong operation. The core logic is the supply glut expectation caused by production increase and the potential demand boost in the peak consumption season, along with the improvement of market risk appetite [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The Shanghai Rubber Futures 2509 contract and the Synthetic Rubber Futures 2507 contract are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Tuesday, May 14, 2025 [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and slightly weaker; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: stronger operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The natural rubber producing areas at home and abroad will enter a new round of tapping season, with raw material output steadily increasing and new rubber supply gradually rising. After the May Day holiday, the tire industry's operating rate has entered a stage of recovery, and procurement demand is expected to increase. However, due to the lack of continuous improvement in the supply - demand structure and a slight increase in rubber inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, it is difficult to support the continuous strengthening of rubber prices after the holiday. With the real - time progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted. The 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures rose 1.69% to 15,000 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating and slightly weaker; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall view: stronger operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ oil - producing countries agreed to continue the accelerated production - increasing rhythm in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market was digested, oil prices showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend. Supported by cost factors and the real - time progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted. The 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures continued to rebound 2.61% to 11,995 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Tuesday. The market sentiment is improved by the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and although there is an increase in supply, the downstream demand has also improved [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - Short - term: The methanol 2509 shows an oscillating pattern [1]. - Medium - term: It is oscillating with a slightly weaker tendency [1][5]. - Intraday: It is oscillating with a slightly stronger tendency, and the reference view is a stronger operation [1][5]. 3.2 Core Drivers - **Supply**: Although the production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol has declined, with multiple sets of devices restarting before the festival, the supply pressure has risen again, and the weekly production has reached a new high. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 205.78 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.78 million tons, and a significant increase of 35.20 million tons compared with 170.58 million tons in the same period last year [5]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand has improved. The recovery of the futures profit of methanol - to - olefins has boosted the purchasing enthusiasm at ports, and the port inventory has been smoothly reduced [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: In the context of real - time progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted. The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract rose 1.43% to 2277 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report gives short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several agricultural futures including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, with all intraday views being "oscillating strongly" [5][6][7]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: CBOT soybean futures reached a three - month high due to eased trade tensions and a bullish USDA report. The significant cut in US soybean production estimates exceeded the cut in exports, leading to an unexpected reduction in US soybean stocks, which boosted US soybean futures prices. After the price difference between domestic and international soybean markets is repaired, the domestic soybean market will also be boosted. However, the domestic soybean meal futures price is temporarily running oscillating strongly under the pressure of supply recovery expectations [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The expected increase in Southeast Asian palm oil inventories will still suppress the performance of palm oil futures prices. The implementation progress of Indonesia's B40 policy will be affected by international oil prices. In the short term, rapeseed oil is the vane in the oil sector, and its strong upward trend is expected to continue, which will also give some support to palm oil futures prices, making it run oscillating strongly [7]. Other Varieties (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil in General) - **Core Logic Factors**: For soybean oil 2509, factors include US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel stocking demand. For palm 2509, factors involve Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 市场情绪回暖，矿价低位回升 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 说明： ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪回暖，贴水矿价强势上涨，但铁矿石供需格局并未改善，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石需求维持 高位，给予矿价支撑，但钢材需求面临季节性走弱，难以承接高铁水局面，需求或将触顶，利好效应 趋弱。与此同时，港口到货和海外矿商发运延续回落，但降幅不大，相应的内矿供应也在回升，铁矿 石供应高位运行。总之，中美贸易谈判取得实质性性进展，市场情绪回暖，驱动矿价低位回升，但需 求趋于触顶，且供应在回升，基本面预期走弱，上行空间谨慎乐观，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic stimulus policies this week are expected to have limited effect on boosting coal demand and are difficult to reverse the overall pattern of oversupply of thermal coal. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and it is expected that the thermal coal price will continue to run weakly in the near future [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Analysis of Thermal Coal - The intraday and medium - term reference view of thermal coal spot is "oscillating". The supply is in an oversupply pattern. Although there are domestic stimulus policies, the improvement of the non - power industry atmosphere is limited, and the support for coal prices is insufficient [5] Policy Impact - On May 7, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce a series of domestic demand boosting policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the stock and property markets. However, these policies have limited impact on the coal non - power industry, which has long - term problems in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [5] Supply - side Situation - Entering the new natural month, domestic coal mines have resumed normal production, and the safety supervision environment in major production areas such as Shanxi and Shaanxi is relatively stable. In terms of imports, in April, China imported 37.825 million tons of coal and lignite, a 2.3% decrease from the previous month. Although the import volume has decreased compared with last year, it is still at a relatively high level [5] Demand - side Situation - May is the transition period between the winter and summer coal - using peak seasons, and the overall demand for thermal coal is weak. As of the end of April, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.858 million tons, a weekly increase of 93,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 2.777 million tons, a weekly decrease of 184,000 tons, and the coal consumption of power plants is at a low level within the year [5]