投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 15 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 向上驱动不足，煤焦低位运行 核心观点 焦炭：1 月 15 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1745 元/吨，日内录得 0.11%的跌 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.72 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-1163 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/吨，周环比 上涨 0.68%。本周，下游钢厂逐渐复产，但复产速度偏缓，焦炭基本面改 善幅度有限，相对利好仍在于上游焦煤的供应端强预期。目前，焦炭自身 基本面支撑仍较为乏力，不过进入新一年度后，经济政策预期、"反内 卷"政策预期，以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐显，多空交织，带动 焦炭低位调整。 焦煤：1 月 15 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1187.5 点，日内下跌 1.00%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.58 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+4539 手。焦 煤期货经历上周反弹后，本周回归震荡格局。现阶段，焦煤维持供需两增 局面，基本 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuates, with a daily decline of 0.13%. Demand has improved slightly, but the downstream remains weak, and the supply is weakly stable. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with attention paid to steel mill production [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuates with a 0% daily decline. Demand shows some resilience, but supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuates downward, with a daily decline of 1.03%. Supply remains high, and although demand has improved, fundamental contradictions in the ore market are accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The central bank reported that in 2025, the annual RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan, M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the year - end social financing scale stock was 442.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3% [7]. - By the end of December 2025, over 5500 plots of land were planned to be acquired using special bonds, with a planned acquisition area of nearly 300 million square meters, and more than 300 billion yuan of corresponding special bonds had been issued [8]. - Ukraine's Ferrexpo produced 6.1 million tons of iron ore in 2025, a 9% decrease from 2024 but maintaining above 6 million tons for the second consecutive year. In Q4 2025, production was affected by attacks, with a 29% decline from the previous quarter and a 38.9% decline year - on - year [9]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel products**: Rebar's Shanghai price is 3260 yuan/ton, Tianjin is 3200 yuan/ton, and the national average is 3346 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil's Shanghai price is 3290 yuan/ton, Tianjin is 3190 yuan/ton, and the national average is 3309 yuan/ton. The rebar - scrap spread is 1150 yuan/ton, and the coil - rebar spread is 30 yuan/ton [10]. - **Iron ore**: PB powder in Shandong ports is 815 yuan/ton, Tangshan iron concentrate is 782 yuan/ton, the Australian sea freight is 7.52, and the Brazilian sea freight is 20.38. The SGX swap price (current month) is 108.00, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 107.80 [10]. 3. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract is 3160 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.13%, a trading volume of 754,088, and an open interest of 1,685,122 [12]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active contract is 3307 yuan/ton, with no change, a trading volume of 326,133, and an open interest of 1,448,345 [12]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active contract is 813.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.03%, a trading volume of 252,986, and an open interest of 652,402 [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 - 2026 [15][20]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal changes and month - on - month changes from 2022 - 2026 [23][25]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and electric furnace operating rate of steel mills from 2022 - 2026 [29][32]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Demand has improved slightly, but the downstream is still weak, and supply is weakly stable. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [39]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Demand shows some resilience, but supply is at a high level and there are concerns about demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Iron ore**: Supply remains high, and although demand has improved, fundamental contradictions in the ore market are accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is showing signs of stabilization. The main contract of the futures market has been on an upward trend in the past 10 trading days, while the spot price has also shown an overall upward trend, although it decreased by 2.53% compared to the previous day. The inventory inflection point has appeared [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 163,220 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan/ton from the previous day, and up 18,220 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago. The settlement price was 160,640 yuan/ton, down 4,740 yuan/ton from the previous day, but up 17,240 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [4][6]. - **Lithium Concentrate**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean and Malian CIF6 Chinese lithium spodumene concentrates were in the ranges of 2280 - 2350, 2260 - 2330, 2240 - 2330, and 1900 - 1980 US dollars/ton respectively, with price changes compared to the previous day and 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O content in the Chinese market increased, with price increases ranging from 25 - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 755 - 2495 yuan/ton compared to 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 158,920 yuan/ton, down 4,130 yuan/ton from the previous day but up 20,330 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago. The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 150,460 yuan/ton, down 3,660 yuan/ton from the previous day but up 21,900 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and electrolytes showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of ternary precursor (111) increased by 0.3 million yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the price of ternary material (111, power, domestic) increased by 0.5 million yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8][9]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts display the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][14][16]. - **Other Relevant Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Charts present the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [18][19].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated downward in the morning and rebounded after hitting the bottom in the afternoon, with a significant drop in open interest. The short - term bullish sentiment cooled, and the 01 contract expired with a weakening near - month spread. The electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream industries showed a strong wait - and - see attitude. The futures price is expected to fluctuate and wait for industrial follow - up [6]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price decreased with a reduction in positions, and the intraday main futures price once dropped to the 24,000 mark, then rebounded slightly in the afternoon. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled with strong bullish liquidation intentions. As the aluminum price reached the 24,000 mark, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased significantly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 24,000 mark [7]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price soared and then fell last night and fluctuated weakly today but showed strong performance in the non - ferrous sector. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled, and the strong performance of nickel was mainly due to positive supply - side expectations. The nickel production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The short - term macro - cooling is dominated by the marginal decrease in industrial supply, leading to the strong operation of the nickel price. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 150,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Affected by the high and volatile copper price, the procurement volume of scrap copper by downstream enterprises decreased significantly, and the market trading activity was weak. The price fluctuations made it difficult to form a unified pricing mechanism, and the transaction progress was hindered. In the European, American and Asian markets, most scrap - copper holders were waiting for a clearer market price. In some markets like South Korea, high - quality scrap - copper holders raised prices due to tight supply [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 15th, SMM reported that the inventory in Shanghai continued to increase, with a 17,400 - ton increase compared to January 12th, mainly in the form of warehouse receipts. It is expected that the quotation for the SHFE copper 2602 contract will still be at a discount on Friday [11]. - **Nickel**: On January 14th, 2026, the Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Department stated that this year's nickel production quota would be strategically adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The existing quota is allowed to be extended until March 31st, 2026, and the actual annual supply depends on later government evaluations and quota additions [12]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [13][19][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, overseas electrolytic aluminum exchange inventory, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][32][28]. - **Nickel**: There are charts on nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][44][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at MA10. The industrial contradiction is accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, with inventory increasing. The supply is rising and there is still room for growth, while the demand is weak, and the fundamental contradiction is accumulating, causing the steel price to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the low - level volatile trend [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the MA10 support, and the core logic is that the industrial contradiction is accumulating and steel prices are under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Inventory starts to increase, and the production of construction steel mills is active, with supply continuing to rise and still having room for growth. The demand is weak, with high - frequency demand indicators at a low level and remaining at the lowest in the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, so the subsequent demand will continue the seasonal weakness, dragging down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure, and it is expected to continue the low - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 弱势运行 | 地缘风险弱化，原油震荡走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛墨西哥或成为美国下一个夺取和 打击的目标。同时美国威胁或对伊朗展开新一轮军事打击，中东地缘风险再度加剧。随着昨日美国 总统特朗普释放可能暂缓打击伊朗的信 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment information, financial news, bond and stock market trends. It shows that in 2025, China's foreign trade reached a record high, and various industries such as metals, energy, and agriculture have different price and market changes. The financial market also experiences policy - driven and market - based adjustments [2][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1] - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly higher than the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2% [1] - In November 2025, social financing scale was 24,888 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan [1] - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports totaled 45.47 trillion yuan, with exports growing 6.1% and imports growing 0.5% [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced trading rules for lithium carbonate futures LC2701 and polysilicon futures PS2701 contracts [2] - On January 14, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 31 had negative basis [3] 3.2.2 Metals - On January 15, spot silver hit a record high of $93.68 per ounce. On January 14, domestic silver futures rose 8% [4] - Tungsten prices continued to rise in 2026. On January 14, black tungsten concentrate prices exceeded 500,000 yuan per ton [5] - In December 2025, China's rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year to 4,392 tons [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - In December 2025, China's steel product exports reached 11.3 million tons, and annual exports increased by 7.5% to 119 million tons [7] - In 2025, China's iron ore imports increased by 1.8% to 1.26 billion tons [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The US government expects more Venezuelan oil to enter the market in the coming days and weeks [9] - OPEC maintained its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day and predicted 1.34 million barrels per day for 2027 [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In early January, most agricultural product prices in the circulation field rose, with live pigs hitting a new high since September 2025 [10] - In early January, soybean prices fell by 2.12% month - on - month, and cotton prices rose by 1.97% month - on - month [11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 14, the central bank conducted 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 212.2 billion yuan [13] - On January 15, the central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of 6 - month term repurchase operations, with an additional 300 billion yuan [13] 3.3.2 Important News - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on January 15 to introduce the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies in supporting high - quality economic development [15] - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached a record high, and the government continued to promote fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand [15][16] - The three - department deployment regulates the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was volatile in the morning, and bond yields mostly declined in the late session [23] - The exchange - traded bond market showed that most of the Vanke bonds were weak [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.15% [25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9734 on January 14, up 31 points [28] - The US dollar index fell 0.11% in New York trading [28] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that during the new debt - resolution cycle, the transformation of urban investment platforms will shift from quantity reduction to quality improvement [29] - CICC believes that the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged in January and may cut rates in March [30] 3.4 Stock Market News - On January 14, the A - share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with a turnover approaching 4 trillion yuan [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.56% [32] - Regulatory authorities put forward three - pronged supervision requirements for fund dividends [33] - The single - day trading volume of domestic ETFs exceeded 700 billion yuan on Wednesday [33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 15, 2026, including base spreads, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Base spreads for thermal coal on different dates from January 8 - 14, 2026 are - 104, - 102, - 101, - 100, - 100 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are all 0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Goods - Base spreads and ratios for energy goods like fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt on different dates are provided. For example, the base spread of INE crude oil on January 14, 2026 is 38.24 yuan/ton [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Goods - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 155 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - commodity spreads for chemicals such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. on different dates are presented. On January 14, 2026, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 1943 yuan/ton [9] - Base spreads for chemical goods on different dates are also provided [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 31 yuan/ton [19] - Inter - commodity spreads for black metals like rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. on different dates are given. On January 14, 2026, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.85 [19] - Base spreads for black metals on different dates are presented [20] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic base spreads for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on different dates are provided. On January 14, 2026, the base spread of copper is - 140 yuan/ton [28] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals on January 14, 2026 are given. For copper, the LME spread is 44.29, and the import profit and loss is - 1365.31 yuan/ton [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Base spreads for agricultural products like soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. on different dates are provided. On January 14, 2026, the base spread of soybeans is - 243 yuan/ton [35] - Inter - period spreads for agricultural products are presented. The 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans is - 4 yuan/ton [35] - Inter - commodity spreads for agricultural products such as soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on January 14, 2026 are given. The soybean/corn ratio is 1.90 [35] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Base spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates are provided. On January 14, 2026, the base spread of CSI 300 is 1.93 [46] - Inter - period spreads for stock index futures are presented. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of CSI 300 is 0.2 [48]

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。午后由于股市快速回调，国债避险需求上升，国债价格有所回 升。不过短期内市场并不恐慌，国债价格走势仍将回归自身基本面，短期内国债期货的上行与下行动 能均较为有限。一方面，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来政策面将保持偏宽松的货币信用环境， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a core logic of weakening geopolitical risks leading to a weak - oscillating trend [1] - The short - term and mid - term views of methanol are oscillating, while the intraday view is weak. The reference view is a weak operation. The weakening of geopolitical risks may cause domestic methanol futures to continue the weak trend on Thursday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Trend and View - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillating, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1] - The intraday view of methanol (MA) is weak, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is weak operation [5] Driving Logic - The strongest support for the recent upward movement of methanol prices is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply before the festival. Iran, as the main source of imports, is facing serious supply disruptions. At the same time, the inventory of methanol at domestic ports has decreased, driving the recovery of port spot prices and strengthening the basis. The firmness of the spot end has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market [5] - After the US President Trump signaled a possible suspension of strikes against Iran, geopolitical risks have weakened, and international crude oil futures prices have significantly corrected. Although domestic methanol futures maintained a relatively strong trend on Wednesday night, there is a lack of momentum for further upward movement [5]