Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices soared, with both LME copper and SHFE copper rising over 3%. The share price of US mining giant Freeport - McMoRan tumbled. Today, copper prices maintained a strong trend, and SHFE copper's open interest increased significantly. Due to a mudslide at its Indonesian subsidiary's Grasberg mine, the world's second - largest copper mine, production has been suspended. Freeport expects the mine to return to pre - accident production levels by 2027 at the earliest, and copper and gold production in 2026 is projected to drop by 35%. In the short term, LME copper broke through the annual high, and SHFE copper neared it, showing strong upward momentum [5]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, aluminum prices rose following the sharp increase in copper prices. Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, and open interest decreased. At the macro level, the upward breakthrough of copper prices drove up the non - ferrous sector. At the industrial level, with the peak season and pre - holiday stocking demand, electrolytic aluminum social inventories declined on Thursday. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [6]. - **Nickel**: Last night, nickel prices rose due to the sharp increase in copper prices. Today, nickel prices maintained a strong trend, and open interest increased. At the macro level, the non - ferrous market recovered. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements still suppresses nickel prices. In the short term, as the non - ferrous sector as a whole rises, nickel prices are rising with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the September high [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: During the morning trading session, SHFE copper rose by over 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot market's trading sentiment was weak. The export window opening may promote smelters' export plans, reducing holders' willingness to sell. Downstream copper consumers had few new orders and weak pre - holiday stocking. Since the mudslide at the Grasberg mine on September 8, it has been shut down for nearly two weeks. The company has activated force majeure clauses. Indonesia Freeport's copper production in 2026 may decline by 35% compared to previous estimates, and this incident may cause a 2.2% reduction in global copper supply in the future [9]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Multiple charts related to copper are presented, including basis, domestic visible inventory, overseas exchange inventory, and others, which reflect the price and inventory trends of copper [11][13][18]. - **Aluminum**: Charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory, and alumina inventory are provided, showing the price and inventory conditions of aluminum [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts including nickel basis, LME inventory, and domestic warehouse receipt inventory are included, presenting the price and inventory trends of nickel [35][36][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price recovered from its low, with a daily increase of 0.32%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Before the holiday, rebar demand is rising while production remains stable, and the supply - demand situation has improved slightly. However, downstream performance is still sluggish, and the fundamentals are unlikely to improve substantially. The upward momentum is weak, but cost support is a positive factor. It is expected that rebar prices will continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in open interest [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.24%, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. Currently, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are weak due to the situation of weak supply and demand, and the high - supply pressure persists, putting pressure on prices. The positive factor is the rising cost. It is expected to continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to demand performance [6]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.25%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, ore demand is decent, supporting the ore price. However, demand is expected to weaken, while supply is rising, and the supply - demand situation is expected to deteriorate. The high - valued ore price has limited upward momentum, and it will continue to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday. Attention should be paid to changes in open interest [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The OECD raised the global growth forecast for this year to 3.2% from 2.9% in June, but warned of tariff and inflation risks. The forecast for 2026 remains at 2.9%, both lower than the 3.3% growth rate in 2024. Global exports to the US face a maximum tariff rate of 50%, and some countries are negotiating new trade frameworks [8]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development announced that in 2025, the plan is to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to August, 21,700 such projects have started. Regions like Hebei, Liaoning, and others have completed all planned projects [9]. - South Korea imposed temporary anti - dumping duties on carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils from China and Japan on September 23, 2025. The duty rate for Chinese exporters is 33.10%, and for Japanese exporters, it ranges from 31.58% to 33.57%. The measure is valid for four months until January 22, 2026, with some product exclusions [10]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,260, 3,230, and 3,306 respectively. For hot - rolled coils (Shanghai, 4.75mm), the prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,400, 3,330, and 3,439 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) is 3,030, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) is 2,160. The coil - rebar price difference is 140, and the rebar - scrap price difference is 1,100 [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 796, and Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) is 798. The ocean freight from Australia is 10.82 and from Brazil is 25.21. The SGX swap (current month) is 105.70, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) is 106.50 [11]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,167 | 0.32 | 3,175 | 3,152 | 883,015 | - 322,137 | 1,870,449 | - 11,775 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,358 | 0.24 | 3,362 | 3,343 | 337,428 | - 130,346 | 1,369,716 | 1,955 | | Iron ore | - | 805.5 | 0.25 | 808.0 | 799.5 | 191,183 | - 11,238 | 529,740 | - 9,319 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventories (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories), iron ore inventories (including 45 - port and 247 - steel mill inventories), and steel mill production (including blast furnace operating rates, electric furnace operating rates, and steel mill profitability) [15][20][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally. Rebar production increased slightly week - on - week, but due to poor profitability, the short - term production increase momentum is weak. Demand has improved, but high - frequency trading is weak, and both supply and demand are at low levels compared to previous years. Before the holiday, demand is rising, supply is stable, but downstream performance is still sluggish. The fundamentals are unlikely to improve substantially, and the upward momentum is weak. Cost support is a positive factor. It is expected to continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in open interest [39]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand situation remains weak, with increasing inventories. Production decreased slightly week - on - week, and the supply pressure is still high. Demand is losing its resilience, with a slight week - on - week decline in apparent demand and a drop in high - frequency trading. Although the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has increased significantly, industrial contradictions persist, and external demand improvement is limited. The positive factor is the rising cost. It is expected to continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand situation has changed. Steel mill production is stable, and ore consumption has continued to rise, with daily pig iron production and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increasing slightly week - on - week. Pre - holiday restocking has supported the ore price. However, steel market contradictions are accumulating, and steel profits are shrinking, so demand resilience will weaken. At the same time, port arrivals in China have increased significantly, overseas shipments have decreased slightly but remain at a relatively high level, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing supply pressure. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in open interest [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The current PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. With the release of new production capacity and high industry operating rates, supply pressure continues to increase. Given the downturn in the real estate industry and the slowdown in exports, demand is unlikely to exceed expectations. Although there may be a seasonal maintenance peak in October leading to a temporary tightening of supply, if demand does not improve simultaneously, the inventory reduction speed will remain slow. It is expected that the 2601 contract will fluctuate weakly in the future [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Supply Pressure - The PVC market has entered the traditional peak season, but factors such as weak demand and increased supply have put continuous pressure on futures prices, resulting in a "peak season without prosperity" situation. The trading logic in the PVC futures market has returned to fundamentals. Although short - term supply has decreased slightly, downstream demand remains weak, and the overall fundamentals are weak [2] - In 2025, new PVC production capacity has been continuously put into operation, increasing supply pressure. New devices of Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua Development have been put into operation in recent months, bringing significant supply increments. Although some devices of Henan Yuhang and Heilongjiang Haohua were shut down for maintenance in September, and some devices of Shaanxi Beiyuan, Gansu Jinchuan, and Xinjiang Zhongtai Shengxiong continued to be under maintenance, the industry operating rate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month and remain at a relatively high level in recent years. This means that short - term supply reduction is completely offset by long - term supply increment, and market supply pressure has increased [2] Cost Support - The production cost of calcium carbide - based PVC in China is mainly affected by calcium carbide prices. Recently, the domestic calcium carbide market has recovered, and prices have risen slightly, providing phased support for PVC costs. As of the week of September 19, due to the increase in the purchase price of raw material calcium carbide, the weekly average production cost of national calcium carbide - based PVC enterprises was 5132 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.41%. Meanwhile, affected by the increase in ethylene prices, the production cost of ethylene - based PVC in China has also slightly increased. As of the week of September 19, the weekly average production cost of national ethylene - based PVC enterprises was 5617 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.018%. Although the increase in calcium carbide and ethylene prices has provided some support for PVC futures prices, it is difficult to drive prices to rise significantly [2] Supply and Inventory - Supply surplus has led to continuous accumulation of social inventory. As of the week of September 19, the domestic PVC industry inventory was 1.3005 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.11%, with 12 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation; the PVC social inventory was 953,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 11.76% [3] Demand Pressure - In terms of domestic demand, the real estate industry, as the largest end - consumption area of PVC, has been in a continuous downturn, seriously dragging down the demand recovery progress. From January to August 2025, the year - on - year decline of domestic housing construction area, new construction area, and completion area was in double - digits. In September, although the operating rate of PVC downstream enterprises has increased, the overall order situation is still average, and end - users mainly purchase at low prices, resulting in a dull market trading atmosphere [3] - In terms of export demand, affected by India's anti - dumping tax, some enterprises have "rushed to export", overdrafting part of the demand. In September, the export pace has significantly slowed down, and the order increment is limited. Although domestic enterprises are actively exploring emerging markets such as Africa and Southeast Asia, it is difficult to form a stable demand increment in the short term due to multiple factors. Overall, the supporting effect of exports on PVC prices has weakened [3] Market Outlook - Currently, the PVC market fundamentals are weak. With new production capacity coming on stream and high industry operating rates, supply pressure keeps rising. Given the real - estate slump and slower exports, demand won't likely outperform. Despite a possible seasonal maintenance peak in October that may tighten supply temporarily, if demand doesn't improve in tandem, inventory drawdown will remain slow. The 2601 contract is expected to trade in a weak, sideways pattern [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The core logic lies in the game between the short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the long - and medium - term fermentation of policy - favorable expectations [1][5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking intention of funds and long - and medium - term fermentation of policy - favorable expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Yesterday, all stock indices rose comprehensively, with IC and IM leading the gains. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2347.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 171.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The rebound was accompanied by a reduction in stock market trading volume and a decrease in the open interest of stock index futures, indicating that investors still have differences in their views on the future market. The main trading logic of the stock market comes from policy expectations and capital flows. The game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations needs to be focused on. On one hand, as the valuation has risen significantly, especially when the index rebounds to near the previous high, the demand for profit - taking of profitable funds increases. On the other hand, the policy - favorable expectations and the long - term net inflow trend of the capital side constitute the long - and medium - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index. The fermentation of policy - favorable expectations depends on the convening of the important meeting in October. The fact that the margin trading balance has exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan and the significant year - on - year increase in new non - bank deposits in July and August indicate the signs of residents' wealth allocation to the equity market. In general, due to the index approaching the previous high and the approaching long holiday, the stock index is expected to be mainly in wide - range oscillation in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed, and the steel price will continue to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are fluctuating, fluctuating, and weakly fluctuating respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is fluctuating, the medium - term trend is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is weakly fluctuating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has changed and the steel price continues to fluctuate. There are also explanations for the calculation of price changes and definitions of different trends [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed. The production of construction steel mills has weakened, and the weekly output has continued to decline, but the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect on the supply side is not strong. Thanks to pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries, rebar demand has improved, with high - frequency indicators rising from low levels, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the peak season is lackluster. Overall, due to the improvement in demand, the supply - demand pattern has improved, providing support for the steel price, but the weak downstream performance and demand concerns remain, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a fluctuating trend before the holiday, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report believes that the medium - and long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low. The treasury bond futures are expected to be in low - level volatile consolidation in the short term [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock and weakening", and the overall view is "shock". The core logic is that the medium - and long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "shock and weakening", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "shock". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday. The possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has subsided, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is weak. In the medium and long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the Fed's interest rate cut has greatly reduced the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, so future monetary policy is likely to be loose [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several agricultural commodity futures, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, with most of them being "oscillating and moderately strong" [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is oscillating, intraday view and reference view are oscillating and moderately strong [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic market supply pressure is increasing, and concerns about short - term supply pressure persist. As the National Day holiday approaches, market funds tend to trade short - term logic with poor stability. Without unexpected risk factors, market volatility may decline before the holiday, and a rebound may occur after short - term market sentiment is released [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is oscillating, intraday view and reference view are oscillating and moderately strong [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Due to increased production and decreased exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons. The EU's one - year delay in implementing the anti - deforestation law has eased the decline of Malaysian palm oil, and palm oil futures prices have rebounded slightly [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is oscillating, intraday view and reference view are oscillating and moderately strong [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) are mainly oscillatory, with an intraday bias towards strength. The coking coal is expected to be oscillatory due to good spot market atmosphere, while the coke is expected to have range - bound oscillations due to the interweaving of multiple and short factors [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Supply - demand Situation**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5.79%. Last week, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 tons, but 3.3 tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles at the 288 Port returned to the annual high last week, with the daily customs - clearance vehicles around 1,300 - 1,400. The total daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 113.37 tons, with basically no change week - on - week [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The real - world fundamentals of coking coal have limited support. However, under the repeated disturbance of the anti - involution theme, the downstream replenishment expectation before the National Day and the coal mine production - reduction expectation at the end of the month support the price to a certain extent, driving the main contract of coking coal to maintain high - level oscillations [5]. b) Coke (J) - **Price and Supply - demand Situation**: The latest quotation of the warehouse - receipt price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.00%. As of the week of September 19, the total daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 113.37 tons, with basically no change week - on - week; the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 241.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 tons [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamental contradictions of coke are not prominent for the time being, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The futures are in range - bound oscillations, and the future trend depends on whether there are new positive factors in the anti - involution policy [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term view of oscillation. The strengthening of bullish factors has led to the stabilization of the rubber price oscillations [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; Overall view: run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. After the rubber price digested market sentiment, the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a stage of oscillatory stabilization on Wednesday night, with the price slightly rising 0.54% to 15,690 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillation; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; Overall view: run strongly [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut and the market sentiment digestion led to the stable oscillation of the synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract on Wednesday night, with the price slightly rising 0.04% to 11,550 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and slightly upward - biased trend on Thursday [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 基本面改善有限，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，钢厂生产平稳，终端消耗维持高位，矿石需求表现尚可，给予矿价支 撑，但下游钢市矛盾在累积，且补库趋于尾声，需求利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口到货如期回 升，而矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应相对偏高，叠加内矿供应恢复，供应压力在增加。总之，矿 石需求 ...