1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Since late August, the CSI 1000 Index has been in a wide - range shock after a high - level correction. Using CSI 1000 index options to build a combined strategy can better adapt to the current market environment. It is recommended to construct a long straddle strategy for the October contract to gain from the expected volatility increase and market breakthrough in October [1][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Sentiment Analysis - The PCR of option open interest indicates that the current market sentiment is generally positive and optimistic. On September 11, after the CSI 1000 Index rose sharply, the PCR of the CSI 1000 index option open interest increased significantly, and the proportion of investors with non - bearish views is at a relatively high historical level [2][3]. 3.2 Implied Volatility Analysis - The implied volatility of options has a "pulse - like" characteristic. After the sharp rise or fall of the market, it will gradually fall back. On September 11, the sharp rise of the CSI 1000 Index pushed up the implied volatility, but it is still in the normal range. Currently, the implied volatility has stopped falling and stabilized, and there is a chance of a rebound in the future. When constructing an option portfolio strategy, a positive vega exposure should be considered [4][6]. 3.3 Index Direction Analysis - In the short term, the profit - taking of some stocks has led to a technical adjustment of the index. However, the policy is expected to be favorable, and the continuous inflow of funds will support the index in the medium and long term. Policy expectations are strong due to weak inflation data, and the coordinated efforts of supply - and demand - side policies will support corporate performance repair. There are three sources of incremental funds in the stock market, and the general trend of continuous inflow remains unchanged [7][11][12]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operational Strategy - Considering the positive market sentiment, the stabilization of implied volatility, and the expected policy and capital inflows, it is advisable to construct a long straddle strategy for the October contract of the CSI 1000 Index. This strategy can gain from the increase in volatility and the market breakthrough, with relatively controllable risks [13].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2601, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory - weak, with an overall view of weak operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, leading to an oscillatory - weak trend [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The current supply - demand structure of methanol is weak. With coal futures prices oscillating, the domestic methanol market was suppressed by bearish fundamentals on the night of last Friday. The methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.17% to 2374 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Monday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 9 月 15 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 （元/吨） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/09/12 | -121.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/11 | -126.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/10 | -126.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/09 | -126.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/08 | -124.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/09/12 2025/09/11 2025/09/10 2025/09/09 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term, rise intraday, with an overall view of oscillation due to the coexistence of long and short factors [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term, be slightly stronger intraday, with an overall view of oscillation because of policy disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Supply**: As of the week ending September 12, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 185.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.5 million tons, still 17 million tons lower than the same period last year; the daily average output of clean coal was 72.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons and 6 million tons lower than the same period last year [5]. - **Demand**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 113.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.32 million tons per day. Short - term demand faces some pressure due to the contraction of steel mill profits [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of coking coal has gradually stabilized after the previous "anti - involution" capacity verification. The fundamentals are slightly bearish, but the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and "stable growth" support market sentiment. The main contract of coking coal will maintain range - bound operation, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy changes [5]. Coke (J) - **Supply**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 113.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.32 million tons per day. Due to the implementation of coke price cuts, the latest weekly profit per ton of coke decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons per day, returning to the pre - parade production level [6]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke within the statistical scope increased slightly this week, reaching 906.24 million tons, with inventory mainly accumulating in steel mills [6]. - **Market Outlook**: With a mix of long and short factors in the market, coke will operate in a range. Attention can be paid to whether there are new positive policies for "stable growth" and "anti - involution" [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局偏弱，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格持稳运行，成交表现一般，而螺纹钢延续供需双弱局面，建筑钢厂生产趋 弱，螺纹周产量环比下降，但旺季减产持续性有待跟踪，且库存持续增加，供应压力并未缓解。与 此同时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频指标低位回升有限，且下游行业延续低迷，旺季成色不足，继 续承压钢价。目前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's financial aggregates are large, and future monetary policy should focus on optimizing the structure while maintaining reasonable aggregate growth [2][18]. - China's fiscal policy still has sufficient room for maneuver, with a special treasury bond issuance expected to leverage significant credit [3][19]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, but the policy path after September remains uncertain [4][5]. - Industrial product prices are unlikely to rebound sustainably, and PPI may decline again after the fourth quarter [33]. - The domestic bond market is expected to be highly volatile in August - September, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be moderately strong [34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3% [1]. - Social financing and credit in August 2025 showed significant changes, with an increase in M1 growth and a narrowing M1 - M2 gap [1][2][18]. - CPI in August 2025 was - 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's financial aggregates are large, and future monetary policy will focus on structural optimization [2][18]. - China - US economic and trade talks will discuss issues such as tariffs and TikTok [2]. - China's fiscal policy has sufficient room, with a special treasury bond issuance to leverage credit [3][19]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, but the post - September policy path is uncertain [4][5]. 3.2.2 Metals - Gold and silver prices reached new highs, and Thai gold exports to Cambodia increased [6]. - Metal inventories in the LME showed significant changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - A second round of coke price cuts is planned, and coal prices have fallen [9]. - Indonesia's seizure of a nickel mine has raised supply concerns [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's new LNG device was delivered, and international oil prices rebounded due to supply concerns [10]. - The EU may reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas [10]. - The US natural gas net long position increased, and the WTI crude oil net long position decreased [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China's summer grain purchase was progressing smoothly, and US coffee prices rose [13]. - Most agricultural product prices in China declined, and Pakistan plans to purchase sugar [13][14]. - Speculators' net short positions in US soybeans and corn increased [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank adjusted the evaluation method for primary dealers in open - market operations and carried out reverse repurchase operations [16]. - The central bank will conduct a large - scale term reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity [16]. - There are large - scale reverse repurchase and treasury cash deposits maturing this week [17]. 3.3.2 Important News - China - US economic and trade talks were held in Spain [18]. - China's financial data showed strong support for the real economy, and there was a shift in household deposits [18][19]. - China's fiscal policy has sufficient room, and debt - related issues are being addressed [19][20]. - China opposes US export control measures and launches investigations [21][22][23]. - Policies to promote private investment and industry stability are being introduced [23][24]. - The real estate industry is in the stage of risk clearance, and banks have adjusted mortgage policies [25]. - Brokerage bond issuance reached a new high, and there were bond - related events and credit rating changes [26][27]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market showed a differentiated trend, with long - term bonds recovering [28]. - The exchange bond market had mixed performances, and convertible bond indices rose [28][29]. - Interest rates in the money market and bond issuance yields showed various changes [29][30][31]. - European and US bond yields generally increased [31]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index showed a slight increase [32]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Industrial product prices are unlikely to rebound sustainably, and PPI may decline again [33]. - The domestic bond market will be volatile, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be moderately strong [34]. - The market is in a complex situation with different signals from prices [34]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - A large number of bonds will be listed, issued, paid, and redeemed on September 15 [35]. 3.4 Stock Market News - The Beijing Stock Exchange will switch stock codes for listed companies [36]. - The pattern of the public fund market has changed, with growth in the bond - holding scale of some institutions [36][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for both soybean meal and palm oil is "weak with fluctuations", and the medium - term outlook is "fluctuating". The divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue until the Sino - US trade relationship improves. [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The USDA report's reduction of the US soybean yield per unit did not change the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, having limited impact on domestic soybeans. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue. In the short - term, the price of soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate. Factors also include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. [5][7] For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [6][7][8] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the energy attribute of palm oil has taken a back seat, and the trading logic has reverted to the weak industrial chain. As the barometer of the vegetable oil market, with other varieties still fluctuating around trade themes, the industrial chain environment of palm oil has weakened, and the market sentiment decline has led to an overall weakening of palm oil futures prices. Factors also involve biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. [8][7] For Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [7] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 基本面平稳运行，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局表现平稳，矿石终端消耗回升，叠加假期临近补库，需求表现尚可，给予矿价支 撑，但需注意的是成材矛盾在累积，利润持续收缩，增量空间受限。同时，国内港口到货有所回落， 而海外矿商发运则是大幅下降，外矿供应有所收缩，而内矿供应在恢复，矿石供应短期偏低。目前来 看，铁矿石需求表现尚可，支撑矿价高位运行，但钢市矛盾在累积，且供应回升预期未退，矿市基本 面并未实质性改善，高估值矿价上行预期趋弱，后续走势谨慎乐观，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and copper are both expected to be strong in the short - term, with a rising trend in the medium - term and a volatile but strong - biased trend in the intraday period. The core reasons are the approaching US interest rate cuts, the approaching industrial peak season for copper, and the increase in market attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Last week, gold prices rose and then fell, followed by high - level consolidation. New York gold oscillated below $3700, and Shanghai gold oscillated below 840 yuan. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22nd, gold prices have been on an upward trend, breaking through the high of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent resurgence of the AI boom has led to new highs in the US Nasdaq and China's ChiNext, increasing market risk appetite and being negative for gold prices. In the long run, the approaching US interest rate cuts have given strong upward momentum to gold prices. Short - term gold prices are expected to be supported by the 5 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to Sino - US - Spanish economic and trade talks and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last week, copper prices increased in volume and rose. Shanghai copper reached above 80,000 yuan, and LME copper reached above $10,000. Technically, copper prices are increasing in volume and price, showing a trend of breaking through the oscillation range since the second quarter [4]. - **Driving Factors**: - **Macro - level**: The US August non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, CPI met expectations, and with the approaching September interest - rate meeting, the probability of a rate cut exceeded 90%, and the probability of 3 rate cuts this year increased to 70%. The weak US dollar led to a general rise in non - ferrous metals, which was beneficial to copper prices from a financial perspective [4]. - **Industry - level**: China has entered the industrial peak season. Low domestic copper inventories and the expected replenishment demand before the National Day have increased market optimism about copper inventory reduction, providing inventory support for copper prices. The expected increase in AI's copper consumption and the significant rise in copper - related stocks in the domestic stock market may drive up the price of raw material copper [4]. - **Technical - level**: Copper prices are increasing in volume and price, with a tendency to break through the oscillation range since the second quarter. It is expected that futures prices will run strongly, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the July high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5] - The policy - side positive expectations and the continuous inflow of funds into the stock market are the long - term supporting forces for the stock index. However, in the short term, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks, there is still a willingness to take profits, resulting in short - term technical adjustment pressure [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy positive expectations [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and sorted. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2548.3 billion yuan, an increase of 83.7 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Policy - side positive expectations and the continuous inflow of funds into the stock market are the long - term supporting forces for the stock index. The weak inflation data in August means that policies to boost the demand side will continue to be introduced, increasing policy positive expectations [5] - Incremental funds continue to flow into the stock market. The margin balance has exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan and remained at a high level. The large increase in non - bank deposits in July indicates that residents' wealth allocation may shift to the stock market, and the general trend of continuous inflow of incremental funds remains unchanged [5] - In the short term, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks, there is still a willingness to take profits, resulting in short - term technical adjustment pressure. The future trend depends on the game between profit - taking and the fermentation of policy expectations [5]