本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 308.71 -5.60 319.01 -10.30 311.85 -3.14 高炉产能利用率（%） 85.92 -1.16 87.98 -2.06 88.53 -2.61 表观需求量 311.97 -2.89 320.22 -8.25 318.91 -6.94 冷轧卷板周产量 86.31 0.79 84.76 1.55 84.70 1.61 总库存 397.09 -3.26 400.90 -3.81 315.23 81.86 厂内库存 84.03 4.11 78.02 6.01 78.40 5.63 社会库存 313.06 -7.37 322.88 -9.82 236.83 76.23 热轧卷板周度数据（20251212） 供给 需求 库存 270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 热轧卷板周产量（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 70 75 80 85 90 95 高炉产能利用率（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 250 270 290 310 330 350 热 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The demand for iron ore is in a weak pattern and continues to put pressure on prices. Overseas ore supply is positive, and the overall supply remains high. Due to the structural contradiction in the spot market and the support of black - variety arbitrage, iron ore prices are running at a high level. However, with weakening demand and high supply, the fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is limited. The iron ore price will maintain a high - level shock, and caution should be exercised regarding the shift of the trading logic to the real - world situation [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 15,431.42, with a week - on - week increase of 130.61 and a monthly increase of 221.30 compared to the end of last month. It's 112.04 higher than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,831.20, with a week - on - week decrease of 153.53 and a monthly decrease of 111.28 compared to the end of last month. It's 341.84 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,480.50, with a week - on - week decrease of 218.80 and a monthly decrease of 336.60 compared to the end of last month. It's 301.50 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The global iron ore shipping volume is 3,368.56, with a week - on - week increase of 45.41 and a monthly increase of 90.14 compared to the end of last month. It's 357.66 higher than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 229.20, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.10 and a monthly decrease of 5.48 compared to the end of last month. It's 6.60 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports is 319.19, with a week - on - week increase of 0.74 and a monthly decrease of 12.39 compared to the end of last month. It's 7.79 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 283.27, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.80 and a monthly decrease of 6.16 compared to the end of last month. It's 9.34 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1] - The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 99.15, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.39 and a monthly decrease of 4.57 compared to the end of last month. It's 10.83 lower than the same period of the lunar calendar last year [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report believes that the policy利好预期 is gradually fermenting, and the stock index will be mainly oscillating and strengthening in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is strengthening, and the overall view is oscillating and strengthening, with the core logic being the continuous fermentation of the policy利好预期 [1] 2. Price Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is strengthening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that although the stock index had a small oscillating correction yesterday, the trading volume increased. The short - term upward driving force of the stock index is insufficient, but considering the Fed's interest rate cut and the strong policy利好预期 next year, the risk appetite of the stock market is expected to continue to rise, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the subsequent Central Economic Work Conference [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, and the overall view is volatile and weak. The steel price is in the process of finding the bottom due to the weak real - world situation [1]. - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The supply has contracted and reached a low level, providing support for steel prices, but the sustainability of short - process steel mill production cuts is questionable. The demand is weak, and the high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and the downstream industries have not improved, which will continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the current supply - demand double - weak situation, the fundamentals have not improved, the steel price in the off - season is under pressure, and it is expected to continue the volatile bottom - finding trend [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term (within one week), medium - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday trends are all judged as volatile, with the intraday being volatile and weak, and the overall view is volatile and weak. The core logic is the weak real - world situation and the steel price finding the bottom [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The supply has continued to contract and reached a low level, which provides support for steel prices, but the profit of short - process steel mills is acceptable, so the sustainability of production cuts is in question. The demand is weak, high - frequency indicators are in a low - level operation state, and the downstream industries have not improved, which is expected to continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the current supply - demand double - weak situation, the fundamentals have not improved, the steel price in the off - season is under pressure, and the relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the steel price will continue the volatile bottom - finding trend [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, with the overall market showing a mixed pattern of "near - strong and far - weak" in the soybean market and complex driving factors for each variety. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term and intraday view is "oscillating weakly", medium - term view is "oscillating". The overall reference view is "oscillating weakly". [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The soybean market shows a "near - strong and far - weak" pattern due to the game between tight spot and weak expectations. US soybeans are in low - level oscillation, and Argentina's tariff reduction squeezes the US soybean market share. With the expected high - yield in Brazil, the support for far - month import costs declines. In the domestic market, the oil mill operating rate drops, and soybean auctions have high - price transactions, indicating short - term replenishment demand. In December, the arrival of imported soybeans may reach 9.5 million tons, and the state reserve continues to sell. The 05 contract corresponds to the period of concentrated soybean listing in South America, and the basis has weakened in advance. [5] 3.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating". [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The US soybean oil price needs to pay attention to the final implementation of the US biofuel policy, the implementation progress of Brazil's blending plan, and the evolution of the global soybean - palm oil price difference. The domestic soybean oil is still in the "weak reality" stage, and the de - stocking process of high inventory determines the price center. The contradiction between varieties is intensifying, and the domestic - foreign price difference of soybean oil is inverted. The wide - range oscillation range of the short - term soybean oil market is difficult to break. [7] 3.3 Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating". [6][8] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market shows a pulse - type rebound rather than a trend reversal, driven by short - covering and technical repair. However, palm oil has limited follow - up strength. The export decline in Malaysia in early December has widened, and production has increased month - on - month. The inventory pressure still affects the price. In the future, attention should be paid to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and the procurement rhythm of major importing countries. [8]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year; the Non-Manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the monthly increase in social financing scale was 816.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1412.0 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year; PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, down from -2.1% in the previous month but up from -2.5% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, turning positive from -1.1% in the previous month but slightly down from 6.58% in the same period last year; imports increased by 1.9% year-on-year, up from 1.0% in the previous month and turning positive from -4.03% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with 8 key tasks including promoting investment recovery, developing new energy, and stabilizing the real estate market [2] - High-frequency data in November showed positive trends in consumption, investment, and foreign trade, with offline consumption index up 12.0% year-on-year, infrastructure project中标金额 and construction machinery operating rate increasing, and international freight flights up 6.2 percentage points from October [2] - In the first 11 months, China's total goods import and export value increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with private enterprises' imports and exports reaching 23.52 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, and the number of private enterprises with import and export records increasing by 66,000 [3] 2.2 Metals - The aluminum industry chain prices are diverging, with alumina prices halved from a year ago while electrolytic aluminum prices are rising, leading to improved profitability for electrolytic aluminum enterprises and potential losses for some alumina enterprises [4] - As of December 11, 2025, the international silver futures price on the COMEX had increased by 113.3% since the beginning of the year, reaching $62.5 per ounce [4] - Goldman Sachs believes there is room to raise the gold price forecast to $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026 if US private investors increase their investment in gold ETFs [5] 2.3 Energy and Chemicals - Jilin Province plans to develop future industries such as artificial intelligence, hydrogen energy, and new energy storage [8] - Citibank revised its oil price forecast, expecting Brent crude oil prices to remain stable in 2026, with an average price of $62 per barrel in the base scenario and potentially reaching $75 per barrel in an optimistic scenario [8] - OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [9] 2.4 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to continue rising in December, potentially exceeding 3 million tons if exports remain weak, and its 2025 production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [11] - Argentina reduced the export tax rate for soybeans from 26% to 24% and for wheat and barley from 9.5% to 7.5% [11] - Brazil has been authorized to export beef and beef products to Guatemala [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On December 11, the central bank conducted 118.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan as 180.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [14] 3.2 Key News - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic work, emphasizing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and outlined 8 key tasks [15] - The Ministry of Commerce will issue opinions to promote the innovation and development of the retail industry [15] - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 3.4%, and new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.88 million and 1.823 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year growth of 20% and 20.6% [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market continued to perform well, with most interest rate bond yields declining, and treasury bond futures rising [19] - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally adjusted downward, while some other bonds such as "25 TeGuo 03" rose [20] - Most money market interest rates declined on December 11 [21] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.058 on December 11, up 58 points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0686, up 67 points [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the Central Economic Work Conference provided clear policy directions, including more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and emphasized new industries and anti-competition [25] - CITIC Securities expects the fiscal budget deficit rate to remain at around 4% in 2026, with a slight increase in the scale of special treasury bonds and local special bonds, and there may be a 10bps interest rate cut in the first half of the year [25][26] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the November inflation data has some impact on the bond market, but the bond market's counterattack logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to hold short-term credit bonds, certificates of deposit, and interest rate bonds with maturities of 5 - 7 years or less [26] 4. Stock Market News - The A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.41%, while the BeiZheng 50 Index rose 3.84% [29] - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.04%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.83%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.23% [29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures on December 12, 2025, presenting data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for multiple futures varieties across different sectors. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: The basis of power coal on December 11, 2025, was - 48.4 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend compared to previous days. The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodity Basis**: For fuel oil and INE crude oil, the basis on December 11, 2025, was - 1.64 yuan/ton and - 2.37 yuan/ton respectively. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1485 [7]. - **Chemical Commodity Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of rubber was - 285 yuan/ton, methanol was 51 yuan/ton, PTA was - 14 yuan/ton, LLDPE was 466 yuan/ton, V was 84 yuan/ton, and PP was 148 yuan/ton [9]. - **Chemical Commodity Inter - period Spreads**: For the 5 - 1 inter - period, rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, methanol was 57 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9 - 1 inter - period, rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, methanol was 54 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9 - 5 inter - period, rubber was 20 yuan/ton, methanol was - 3 yuan/ton, etc. [10]. - **Chemical Commodity Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, LLDPE - PVC was 2267 yuan/ton, LLDPE - PP was 377 yuan/ton, etc. [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Black Metal Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of rebar was 181.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was 33.0 yuan/ton, coke was 113.5 yuan/ton, and coking coal was 135.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Black Metal Inter - period Spreads**: For the 5 - 1 inter - period, rebar was - 10.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 20.0 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9(10) - 1 inter - period, rebar was 22.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 43.5 yuan/ton, etc.; for the 9(10) - 5 inter - period, rebar was 32.0 yuan/ton, iron ore was - 23.5 yuan/ton, etc. [19]. - **Black Metal Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.05, the ratio of rebar to coke was 2.0289, etc. [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the domestic basis of copper was 170 yuan/ton, aluminum was - 80 yuan/ton, zinc was 125 yuan/ton, lead was 5 yuan/ton, nickel was 3350 yuan/ton, and tin was - 600 yuan/ton [29]. - **London Market Data**: On December 11, 2025, the LME copper premium/discount was 24.76, aluminum was (26.68), etc.; the Shanghai - London ratio of copper was 7.93, aluminum was 7.65, etc.; the CIF price of copper was 94072.03, aluminum was 23768.13, etc.; the domestic spot price of copper was 92950.00, aluminum was 21910.00, etc.; the import profit/loss of copper was (1122.03), aluminum was (1858.13), etc. [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Agricultural Product Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 153 yuan/ton, soybeans No.2 was - 60.11 yuan/ton, soybean meal was 310 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 534 yuan/ton, and corn was 37 yuan/ton [42]. - **Agricultural Product Inter - period Spreads**: For soybeans No.1, the 5 - 1 inter - period was 11 yuan/ton, 9 - 1 was 14 yuan/ton, 9 - 5 was 38 yuan/ton; for other products, similar data are provided [42]. - **Agricultural Product Inter - variety Spreads**: On December 11, 2025, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.86, soybeans No.2 to corn was 1.69, etc. [41]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: On December 11, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 was 12.58, SSE 50 was 7.23, CSI 500 was 8.49, and CSI 1000 was 7.40 [53]. - **Stock Index Futures Inter - period Spreads**: For the CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month was - 16.0, the next - quarter minus current - quarter was - 43.6; for other indices, similar data are provided [53].

宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） 备注： ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 弱势 | 弱势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 偏空氛围主导，焦煤弱势下行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 弱势 | 弱势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本支撑坍塌，焦炭持续下挫 | 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：弱势 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛 ...

Report Overview - The report is a methanol morning report from Baocheng Futures dated December 12, 2025, focusing on the methanol 2605 contract [1]. Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall reference view is "weak operation" [1]. - With the digestion of previous bullish factors, due to increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures rally was blocked and fell into a correction. Although port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they remain at high levels, and downstream demand improvement is insufficient with weakening olefin profit on the disk. The domestic methanol futures are expected to maintain a weak - oscillating trend on Friday [5]. Summary According to Related Information Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be weak [1]. Price and Market Logic - Core logic: The previous bullish factors have been digested. The increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices have led to the blockage of the methanol futures rally. The port and inland inventories, though slightly decreasing, are still high, and downstream demand improvement is insufficient with olefin profit on the disk weakening. On Thursday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a weak - oscillating trend with slightly lower prices, and are expected to continue this trend on Friday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息落地，美元美债收益率走弱 | | 铜 | 2601 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产，降息落地 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨夜金价震荡上行，纽约金站上 4300 美元关口，沪金逼近 9 ...