Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of white sugar 01 is expected to oscillate and decline. The import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, and the current price of contract 01 is close to the cost price of out-of-quota imported sugar. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and short-term attention should be paid to whether there is support at the 5600 mark [5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Conab estimates that the sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 320,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 68,500 tons. The situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6020, and the basis for contract 01 is 400, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons, which is a bullish factor [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include the increase in global sugar production and the supply surplus in the new season. The price of foreign sugar is below 17 cents per pound, and the import profit window is open, increasing import pressure [7]. - **Medium-term View**: The domestic sugar spot sales average price is close to 6000. The domestic sugar supply and demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the medium- and long-term gap is decreasing. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out-of-quota import tariff on raw sugar. In the short term, there are many imports of foreign sugar [9]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecast**: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. Green Pool forecasts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA forecasts 11.397 million tons, Czarnikow forecasts 7.8 million tons, and Datagro forecasts 2.58 million tons [9][35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The sugarcane planting area, yield per unit area, and sugar production in China are expected to remain stable in the 2025/26 season. The import volume is expected to be 5 million tons, and the consumption volume is expected to be 15.9 million tons. The balance change is expected to be 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate, closing with a doji candlestick, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with short positions decreasing more significantly. Overall, it was a contracting-volume fluctuation. As prices fluctuated, long positions exited for observation, while short positions exited even more actively. Therefore, the market may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the 60-day moving average, but the support from the moving average was weak. The short-term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with the strength of long positions decreasing and that of short positions increasing, and the power of long and short positions began to stalemate. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 contract fluctuate and consolidate [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Futures Market Conditions on August 27 - **Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes**: The trading details of zinc futures contracts with different delivery months on August 27, including opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading amount, and open interest and its changes, are presented. For example, the 2510 contract had an opening price of 22310, a high of 22425, a low of 22290, and a closing price of 22310, with a trading volume of 114,993 lots and an open interest of 107,827 lots, showing a decrease of 891 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes**: The prices and price changes of various zinc products in domestic main spot markets on August 27 are provided. For instance, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16,970 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Aoshang was 22,290 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics**: From August 14 to August 25, the zinc ingot inventory in major domestic markets showed an overall increasing trend. The total inventory on August 25 was 12.48 million tons, an increase of 0.97 million tons compared to August 18 and 0.74 million tons compared to August 21 [5]. - **Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report**: The warehouse receipt situation of zinc in different regions and warehouses on August 27 is detailed. The total zinc warehouse receipt was 36,213 tons, a decrease of 153 tons compared to the previous day, mainly due to the decrease of 153 tons in the warehouse receipt of Tianjin's Shanggang Yuncang Tianjin [6]. - **LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics**: The inventory situation of LME zinc in Singapore Port on August 27 is shown. The current inventory was 60,025 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warehouse receipt of 41,775 tons and a cancelled warehouse receipt of 18,250 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 30.40% [8]. - **National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary**: The price information of zinc concentrate in major domestic cities on August 27 is provided, but the specific price data is not detailed in the given text [10]. - **National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes**: The prices and price changes of zinc ingots of different brands and manufacturers on August 27 are presented. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingots from Hunan Weichuan Smelting was 22,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025**: In June 2025, the planned production value of refined zinc was 45.97 million tons, and the actual production was 47.18 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 11.67%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%, and an increase of 2.63% compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 47.03 million tons [16]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 27**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate in different regions and their price ranges are provided. For example, in the area of Pailie, the processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate was 3700 - 3900 yuan/metal ton, with an average of 3800 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee for 48% grade zinc concentrate was 75 - 95 US dollars/thousand tons, with an average of 85 US dollars/thousand tons [18]. - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table**: The trading volume, long position, and short position rankings of zinc futures of different futures company members on August 27 are presented. For example, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures ranked first with a trading volume of 36,331 lots, an increase of 10,965 lots compared to the previous day; in terms of long positions, CITIC Futures also ranked first with 12,844 lots, a decrease of 1,534 lots compared to the previous day; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures still ranked first with 13,025 lots, an increase of 801 lots compared to the previous day [20]. Zinc Fundamental Analysis - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: In April 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, and the consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, the global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, and the consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, the global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which was considered bullish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 22,290, and the basis was -20, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 27, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 5500 tons to 60,025 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc warehouse receipt decreased by 153 tons to 36,213 tons compared to the previous day, which was considered bullish [2]. - **Market Trend**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc futures showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average was downward, which was considered bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short positions decreased, which was considered bearish [2]. - **Market Expectation**: The LME inventory and warehouse receipt continued to decrease, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt remained at a high level. It is expected that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 contract will fluctuate and consolidate [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - China plans to address the over - capacity in the petrochemical industry through industrial restructuring, which provides short - term policy support for market sentiment. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is expected that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are plans to restart some methanol plants in late August, and high port inventories will have a certain restraining effect. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 trading in the range of 2350 - 2400 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The policy of addressing over - capacity in the petrochemical industry is favorable in the short term, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, while the port market is affected by weak demand and high inventories. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week [4]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products, and some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down plants are restarting, there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE production has significantly declined, coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventories [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot Market**: The price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim region is 671 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2250 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main port in China is 261 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2299 yuan/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions such as Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian also have corresponding changes [8]. - **Futures Market**: The futures closing price is 2372 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants is 10,366, a decrease of 100 compared to the previous period [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis in Jiangsu is - 107, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. There are also corresponding changes in import spreads and regional spreads [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 934,200 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons compared to the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 35,700 tons to 606,900 tons [4]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdowns due to various reasons [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have different operating conditions. Some plants in other countries are also in normal operation or under maintenance [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, and Central China are in normal operation, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future production increases or shutdowns [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week, and the number of expected maintenance next week is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, but the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4911 - 4987. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. [9][14] - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - On August 27, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 149 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [11] - The factory inventory was 30.6029 tons, a decrease of 6.32% month - on - month. The calcium carbide factory warehouse was 23.4929 tons, a decrease of 6.10% month - on - month, and the ethylene factory warehouse was 7.11 tons, a decrease of 7.05% month - on - month. The social inventory was 50.8 tons, an increase of 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises in the warehouse were 5.1 days, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month, which is neutral. [11] - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, which is bearish. [11] - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. [11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the PVC output was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and the output of ethylene enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. The supply pressure decreased this week. The downstream overall operating rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The current demand may remain sluggish. The fundamentals are neutral. [5][7] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2737.05 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure. [8] - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on PVC prices, basis, inventory, production, profit, and other aspects, including price changes of different regions and varieties, month - to - month changes in inventory, and profit changes in different production methods. [15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract. [18] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - Presents the historical trend chart of the spread of the main PVC futures contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025. [24] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: Displays the historical data of Lancoke medium - grade material price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output. [27] - **Calcium Carbide**: Displays the historical data of Shaanxi calcium carbide mainstream price, Wuhai weekly calcium carbide cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and output. [30] - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the historical data of liquid chlorine price, output, raw salt price, and monthly output. [32] - **Caustic Soda**: Displays the historical data of 32% caustic soda price in Shandong, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly output, and maintenance volume of sample enterprises, as well as data on caustic soda apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory. [35] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - Displays the historical data of calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly output of sample enterprises. [40] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Displays the historical data of PVC daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin). Also includes data on paste resin cost - profit, output, and consumption, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment. [45] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Displays the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse, ethylene factory warehouse, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days. [58] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Displays the historical data of vinyl chloride import volume, dichloroethane import volume, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread. [60] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays the monthly supply - demand trend of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including data on export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and import. [63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and there has been phased replenishment by downstream players, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventories. However, the sustainability of this reduction is questionable, and it is expected that glass will mainly show a wide - range volatile trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1175 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass was 1064 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The main basis was - 111 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.83% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1064 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Glass production profit has declined, and the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down. The start - up rate and output have dropped to the lowest levels in the same historical period [2]. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 223, with a start - up rate of 75.34%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,600 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same historical period and showing signs of stabilization and recovery [22][24]. Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The terminal real - estate demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [28][4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.606 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.28% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [42]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed different trends. For example, in 2024E, the production was expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption was expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [43]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The terminal real - estate demand remains weak, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed, and the July Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79,560 with a basis of 370, indicating a premium over the futures, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 1,100 to 156,100 tons on August 27, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - It is expected that with inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, the contradictions between long and short are not prominent, and copper prices will fluctuate [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The analysis of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trend, and main positions leads to a view of neutral to bullish factors, and an expected fluctuating copper price [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not fully elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply - demand balance of 0.11 million tons [22]. Other Data - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. - The processing fee has declined [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: Recently, there have been frequent coal mine accidents, leading to many coal mine shutdowns in major production areas such as Shanxi, resulting in a tight supply. Coke enterprises have carried out the eighth round of price increases, but the spot trading of coking coal is average. After downstream enterprises' phased replenishment, their procurement of raw materials is cautious. Considering the tight supply and low coal mine inventory, coal enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [2]. - **焦炭**: As the military parade approaches, coke enterprises in Henan and Shandong have implemented production restrictions, further tightening the supply. Although the current demand is still supported, the continuous accumulation of finished products and the weakening of steel prices have put pressure on steel mills' profits, intensifying the game between coke and steel enterprises. It is expected that the coke price will be stable with a slight upward trend in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - **焦煤**: On August 27 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal varied by variety and port. For example, the price of main coking coal K4 at Caofeidian Port was 1300, and the price of 1/3 coking coal GI at Caofeidian Port was 1035 with a rise of 115 [11]. Inventory - **港口库存**: The port inventory of coking coal was 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; the port inventory of coke was 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [21]. - **独立焦企库存**: The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises was 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; the coke inventory was 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [26]. - **钢厂库存**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills was 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; the coke inventory was 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [30]. Other Indicators - **焦炉产能利用率**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide was 74.48% [43]. - **吨焦平均盈利**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 25 yuan [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists due to capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [9][12]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 77360 - 80700 [9]. - In the next month, supply is expected to increase, while demand is expected to strengthen and inventory may be reduced [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 78,520 yuan/ton, a 0.37% daily decrease, with a production profit of 2,021 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 81,292 yuan/ton, a 0.70% daily decrease, with a production loss of 2,848 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production profits and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Other aspects**: On August 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,680 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [9]. - **Likely positive factors**: Manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in spodumene imports [10]. - **Likely negative factors**: High - level supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery side to take delivery [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of 6% spodumene decreased by 0.54% to 920 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.97% to 81,700 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and other products showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in July 2025 was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% month - on - month increase; the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% month - on - month increase [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The demand - side data mainly includes the production, sales, and inventory data of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and other downstream products. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% month - on - month decrease; the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.262 million, a 5.04% month - on - month decrease [17][18]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,543 tons, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Among them, smelter inventory decreased by 5.72% to 46,846 tons, lower than the historical average; downstream inventory increased by 6.68% to 51,507 tons, higher than the historical average; other inventory decreased by 2.46% to 43,190 tons, higher than the historical average [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure decreased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease [7]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with the overall downstream operating rate below historical average levels, except for the film and paste resin sectors which are above historical average levels but still showing a decline [8]. - The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, while that of ethylene method is weakening, with the overall cost strengthening. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4962 - 5036 [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negatives include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04% [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.649 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 77.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,753.65 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.90% month - on - month, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Other Aspects**: The main position is net short with an increase in shorts. The basis on August 26th showed that the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,840 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 159 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory decreased by 6.32% month - on - month, with calcium carbide method factory inventory decreasing by 6.10% and ethylene method factory inventory decreasing by 7.05%. Social inventory increased by 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises decreased by 5.55% month - on - month. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, and production of different types of PVC (calcium carbide method and ethylene method), as well as various cost and profit indicators [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report presents the historical trend of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [23][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production of Lancoke from 2022 to 2025 [26][27]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It provides the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [31][32]. - **Caustic Soda**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory of caustic soda, and the profit of the chlor - alkali industry from 2019 to 2025 [33][34][35][36]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC from 2018 to 2025 [37][38][39][40]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates (profile, pipe, film, paste resin) of PVC, as well as the investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion data of the real estate industry, and some macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2018 to 2025 [42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and some price spreads (ethylene method FOB spread, vinyl chloride import spread) from 2018 to 2025 [57][58]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [60][61].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | 8万吨 . | ， | 环比有所增加1 | 15% . 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为7 | 9万吨 . | 环比减少1 ， | 25% . . | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | 硅库存为24 9万吨 ， . | 处于高位 ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | 电池片亏损 ， ...