Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - OPEC and EIA monthly reports have raised oil production forecasts, leading to concerns about supply glut and dragging down oil prices. The marine fuel market has weak supply and demand, with pressure on shipments [3]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure will remain at current levels. Although there is a stable inflow of shipments from the Middle East, healthy downstream marine fuel demand still supports the high - sulfur fuel oil market, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils may narrow in the future. The price of FU2601 is expected to move in the range of 2580 - 2620, and LU2601 in the range of 3180 - 3220 [3]. - The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, while demand is neutral. The bullish factors include Russia's fuel export restrictions and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises, while the bearish factors are the unproven optimistic demand and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The current situation of fuel oil: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is neutral; the inventory is neutral; the price on the disk is neutral; the high - sulfur main position is short - biased, and the low - sulfur main position is long - biased [3]. - Futures prices: The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2695 to 2616, a decrease of 2.93%; the LU main contract futures price dropped from 3310 to 3213, also a decrease of 2.93% [5]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 4.09% in Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price of Singapore diesel increased by 2.04% [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's fuel export restrictions and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimistic demand on the demand side remains to be verified, and upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: OPEC and EIA monthly reports have raised oil production forecasts, leading to concerns about supply glut and dragging down oil prices. The marine fuel market has weak supply and demand, with pressure on shipments [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 16 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 36 yuan/ton, with the spot being nearly flat to the futures [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels [3]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - Main positions: The high - sulfur main position is short - biased with an increase in short positions, and the low - sulfur main position is long - biased with a shift from short to long [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report shows the historical data of the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but specific analysis is not provided [11]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has fluctuated in recent months. As of November 12, it was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels compared to the previous period [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while the industrial demand is moderately weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation has been gradually realized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea futures will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded, industrial demand is moderately weak. Export volume has increased, and the export expectation has been realized, boosting the market sentiment. The domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -58, and the premium/discount ratio is -3.6%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position has increased, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is neutral, the agricultural demand has rebounded, the international urea price is strong, and the export expectation has been realized, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR futures will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong, and agricultural demand has rebounded [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic market is oversupplied [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | Spot delivery product price is 1600 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1600 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1610 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2732 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | UR01 contract price is 1658 (+3), UR05 contract price is 1731 (+3), UR09 contract price is 1754 (+6) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 6958 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons (unchanged), UR port inventory is 79,000 tons (unchanged) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年11月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国内债市整体走暖，利率债收益率多数下行；国债期货主力合约齐升，30年期主力合约涨0.09%。央行开展1955亿元逆回购操作，净投放 1300亿元，银行间市场资金面均衡中改善，存款类机构隔夜回购利率降9bp至1.41%附近。 2、资金面：11月12日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了了1955亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1955亿元，中标量1955亿 元。Wind数据显示，当日655亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1300亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差-0.0174，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为-0.0357，现券贴水期货，偏空。T主力基差0.08 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak. The market is influenced by factors such as macro - policies, export dynamics, and cost trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4557 - 4605 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Likely Factors**: Supply resumption, calcium carbide and ethylene cost support, and export benefits [12]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide - method enterprise production was 345,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.89%, and ethylene - method enterprise production was 146,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different start - up rate changes, and the current demand may remain weak [7]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 769.4 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 465.05 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 14.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2176.35 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [7]. - **Position**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is increasing [8]. 3.3 Expectations - **Basis**: On November 12, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [10]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 334,596 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. Calcium carbide - method factory inventory was 250,396 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%, and ethylene - method factory inventory was 84,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. Social inventory was 545,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.65%, showing a neutral situation [10]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, showing a bearish situation [10].

目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | 1万吨 ， | 环比有所减少9 | 00% . 。 | | | . | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | | ， | 环比减少5 74% . . | 需求持续低迷 | . | | 2万吨 | . | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为 ...

生猪期货早报 2025-11-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，国内进入中秋国庆双节后供需淡季，国内大型养殖场出栏开始减少支撑生猪短 期价格，预计本周供给猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，长假结束后至居民整 体消费意愿减弱，压制短期鲜猪肉消费。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期震荡回落 中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11795元/吨，2601合约基差95元/吨，现货贴水期货。中性。 3. 库存：截至6月30日，生猪存栏量42 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月13日 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 利空：高价货源需求不足；整体需求下行，欧美经济衰退预期加强。 主要逻辑：供应端来看，供给压力仍处高位；需求端来看，复苏乏力。 每日观点 主要风险点：原油价格的走势变化;；沥青焦化物利润差走势。 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为31.8792%，环比减少 1.44个百分点，全国样本企业出货30.88万吨，环比减少6.79%,样本企业产量为53.2 万吨，环比减少4.31%,样本企业装置检修量预估为74.5万吨，环比增加22.53%,本周 炼厂有所减产， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-13甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：基本面转弱的预期下，预计短期国内甲醇延续偏弱运行。内地来看，多套烯烃装置在11月份有检修计划， 传统下游醋酸开工偏低、鲁北大型甲醇制氢装置停车检修，需求面的利空作用明显。当前国内甲醇开工高位，以及上游 甲醇工厂仍维持低库存仍然出货为主。综合来看供需矛盾短期内难有缓和，同时考虑到当前甲醇价格已处于低位，贸易 商谨慎做空对底部价格有支撑，预计跌幅有限。港口方面，海外高供应预期和港口高库存空头氛围压制下，预计本周港 口甲醇市场延续弱势下跌，关注制裁事件后续影响、伊朗发货情况、沿海MTO开工等情况；中性 2、基差：江 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. - Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,340 - 87,820 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a 2.15% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease [10]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 105,719 tons, a 0.70% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary materials was 19,553 tons, a 3.51% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 82,955 yuan/ton, a 0.66% daily increase, with a loss of 815 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 86,558 yuan/ton, a 0.54% daily increase, with a loss of 6,476 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral. Basis: On November 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish. Inventory: The total inventory is 123,953 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Neutral. Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. Bullish. Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased. Bearish [9][12]. - Bullish factors: Manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [13]. - Bearish factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains high, and the decline is limited; the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [14]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.92% to 984 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.22% to 83,300 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium ore: The monthly production of lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and other lithium ores showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 10.61% to 520,514 tons, and the import volume from Australia increased by 64.07% to 347,215 tons [19]. - Lithium carbonate: The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 123,953 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week decrease. The monthly production in October 2025 was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly import volume was 19,596.90 tons, a 10.30% decrease [19]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide was 29,220 tons, a 6.37% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly net export volume was 5,053.18 tons, a 13.60% increase [19]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - Lithium battery: The monthly production of power batteries, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries, and the export volume of lithium batteries all showed different degrees of growth. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60% to 76,000 GWh [19]. - Ternary precursor: The monthly production of ternary precursors was 92,400 tons, a 4.92% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 7,800 tons, a 101.73% increase [64]. - Ternary material: The monthly production of ternary materials was 12,450 tons, a 12.67% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 2,000 tons, a 100% increase [67]. - Lithium iron phosphate: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, a 10.54% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 3,091,994 kilograms, a 54.57% increase [19]. - New energy vehicle: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles all showed different degrees of growth. For example, the production increased by 9.59% to 1,772,000 vehicles, and the sales increased by 14.98% to 1.604 million vehicles [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The market is in a neutral state, with the spot price at 3000 (East China), a negative basis of -59, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, showing a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, but the main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in. The short - term is likely to maintain a fluctuating pattern due to various factors such as China's soybean procurement and South American planting weather [8][9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The market is neutral, with a spot price of 4100 and a basis of -27, also at a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, while the main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing out. It will maintain a fluctuating pattern influenced by factors like China's soybean procurement and South American planting weather [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2601 and soybean A2601 are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges, affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement, South American planting weather, domestic demand, and inventory levels [9][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement quantity and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is likely to be relatively strong above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the oil - mill soybean inventory also declined from a high level. Domestic soybean meal is likely to return to a fluctuating pattern, affected by factors such as US soybean trends, demand off - season, and inventory levels [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing its price. The market will wait for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports its price [15]. - **Bearish**: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production, suppress the price of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 3000 (East China), with a negative basis of -59. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a negative basis of -27. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase year - on - year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing out [11].