1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to enter a moderately bullish oscillatory pattern in the short - term. The price of soybean meal M2601 is predicted to oscillate within the range of 3020 - 3080. The US soybean产区 weather uncertainty supports the bottom of the US soybean price, while the high arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China restricts the upward movement of domestic soybean meal prices [8]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market is currently neutral. The price of soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3900 - 4000. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, but the expected high yield of new domestic soybeans and the large - scale import of Brazilian soybeans suppress the upward potential [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal rose and then fell, while the spot price remained relatively stable, with the high - level spot discount narrowing. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal production in July increased year - on - year. The downstream procurement has rebounded from the low level, and the pick - up volume remains high [22][24][26]. - **Soybeans**: The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, indicating a short - term reduction in stocking demand [45][47]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term progress of China - US tariff negotiations is favorable for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. Affected by the relatively favorable data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, domestic soybean meal is oscillating moderately bullishly in the short - term. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. However, the recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price. Due to the uncertainty in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - growing areas [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, completion of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and continuous expectation of a high - yield South American soybean harvest [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: Continuous expectation of a high - yield Brazilian soybean harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected high yield of new domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3010, with a basis of - 91, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 105.33 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4300, with a basis of 326, indicating a premium to the futures. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 682.53 million tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main players decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main players increased, and there was capital inflow [10]. 3.6 Others - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Sowing, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: Data on the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are presented [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from February to August 2025 are included, covering data on harvested area, yield, production, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume [41]. - **Export and Arrival Data**: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in August and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase [42][44]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit of imported soybean futures weakened [51]. - **Livestock Market**: The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently rose and then fell, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit declined recently [53][55][57][59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. The refineries have reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and this trend may continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current overall demand is lower than the historical average, with varying trends in different types of asphalt and related product开工率 [8]. - The cost side indicates that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a 5.70% increase from the previous period, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a 12.78% decrease. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. - The overall assessment of the fundamentals is slightly positive, the basis is neutral, the inventory situation is slightly positive, the market trend is neutral, the main position is slightly positive. It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3502 - 3544 in the short term [8][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, with a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate is 32.838%, a 2.40 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output is 548,000 tons, a 6.80% decrease, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 648,000 tons, an 11.15% increase. Next week, supply pressure may be further reduced [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.7%, a 0.07 - percentage - point decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.9855%, a 0.11 - percentage - point decrease; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 28.33%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30.6%, a 0.90 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a 5.70% increase, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a 12.78% decrease. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the market in the short term [9]. - **Basis**: On August 26, the Shandong spot price is 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 17 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.292 million tons, a 3.79% decrease; the in - plant inventory is 716,000 tons, a 0.70% increase; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 15,000 tons, a 21.05% decrease [9]. - **Market Trend**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: The refineries have reduced production, supply pressure is alleviated, demand recovery is less than expected, inventory is decreasing, and crude oil cost support is strengthening. It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3502 - 3544 in the short term [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base Difference Trend**: Charts show the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt base differences from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Charts display the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Charts present the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Charts show the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trends**: The chart shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [34][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The chart shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The chart shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 [39][40][41]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The chart shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The chart shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - **Production Volume**: Charts show the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [48][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The chart shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [51][53]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The chart shows the historical trend of refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The chart shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 - 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The chart shows the historical trend of estimated asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 [66][67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The chart shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025 [72][73]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The chart shows the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 [77][76]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The chart shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The chart shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: Charts show the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate from 2019 - 2025 [84][85][86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Charts show the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][91]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The chart shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 - 2025 [93][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: Charts show the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 - 2025 [96][97]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: Charts show the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance from January 2024 to August 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory data [104][105].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年8月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘大幅反弹，价格站回20均线以上。产业链上，矿价继续维稳，镍铁价格稳中有升，成 本线坚挺。不锈钢库存有所回升，接下来要期待金九银十能否提振消费，去库存。新能源汽车产销数据 较好，但三元电池装车量同比下降，总体需求提振受限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121450，基差1080，偏多 3、库存：LME库存209148，-600，上交所仓单22086，-206，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：20均线上下震荡运行，下方成本线有支撑。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - China plans to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry through industrial restructuring, which provides short - term policy support for market sentiment. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is predicted that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland market is relatively balanced in the short - term, but there are expectations of increased production, and high port inventories will also have an impact. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is estimated that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2370 - 2450 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 are neutral, with a bearish basis, neutral inventory, bearish on the disk, bullish in terms of main positions, and the expectation is that prices will fluctuate this week [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Long factors**: Some device shutdowns such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; Decreased methanol start - up in Iran and low port inventories; The 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device of Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; Methanol procurement by northwest CTO factories [6]. - **Short factors**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; Concentrated expected arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; Formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE start - up; Coal - to - methanol having a certain profit margin and active shipments; Accumulation of inventories in some production areas due to poor shipments [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2300 yuan/ton, and there are price data for other regions such as Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia. Futures closing price is 2395 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous value [5][8]. - Basis: The basis of the 01 contract is - 95, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - Warehouse receipts and effective forecasts: The number of registered warehouse receipts is 10,466, down 100 from the previous value, and the effective forecast is 0 [8]. 3.3.2 Price Spread Structure - Basis is - 123 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous value; Import price spread is - 76 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous value; There are also price spreads between different regions [8]. 3.3.3 Start - up Rates - The national weighted average start - up rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous week. Start - up rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 934,200 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 35,700 tons to 606,900 tons [5]. 3.3.5 Production Profits of Different Processes - Coal - to - methanol profit is 287 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton from the previous week; Natural gas - to - methanol profit is - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged; Coke oven gas - to - methanol profit is 448 yuan/ton, up 323 yuan/ton from the previous week [21]. 3.3.6 Downstream Product Data - **Traditional downstream products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged this week. The production profit of formaldehyde is - 187 yuan/ton, with a load of 25.42%, up 0.90% from the previous week; The production profit of dimethyl ether is 369 yuan/ton, with a load of 8.88%, up 0.82% from the previous week; The production profit of acetic acid is 0 yuan/ton, with a load of 82.42%, up 1.94% from the previous week [31][35][38][42]. - **MTO**: The production profit of MTO is - 570 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the load is 79.84%, up 0.15% from the previous week [47]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises have devices under maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary by enterprise [58]. - **Foreign devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of resuming production or running stably at a certain level. For example, ZPC is reported to have resumed one set, and Marjan is in the process of resuming production since mid - March [59]. - **Olefin devices**: Some olefin devices are under maintenance or running stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices were shut down for maintenance on March 15, expected to last 45 days, while some other devices such as Yan'an Energy and Chemical are running smoothly [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall assessment of cotton investment is complex. The fundamentals are neutral, with different data sources showing varying production, consumption, and inventory figures. The basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is bullish, the main position is bullish, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October." If the Zhengzhou cotton main contract 01 can stand above 14,000, the probability of subsequent volatile upward movement increases; otherwise, if it falls below 14,000, the downward space will open [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and an enhanced expectation for the peak consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October." Bearish factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to ICAC's August report, the production in the 2025/26 season is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. According to USDA's August report, the production in the 2025/26 season is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,334 yuan, and the basis is 1,234 yuan (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in the 2025/26 season to be 8.23 million tons in August [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position increases, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectations**: The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou cotton retraced to the 14,000 mark again during the night session. There are differences between the long and short sides regarding the expectation of the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global production was 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Total global consumption was 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. Total global imports were 9.489 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 239,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2%. Total global exports were 9.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 240,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3%. The total global ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 747,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year; global consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (+3.9%) year - on - year; the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China**: In the 2025/26 season, the initial inventory is 8.01 million tons, the sown area is 2.878 million hectares, the harvested area is 2.878 million hectares, the yield per hectare is 2,172 kg, the production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc decline in a volatile manner, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with the long side increasing slightly more. Technically, the price is above the 60 - day moving average with weak support, short - term indicators KDJ are falling and operating in the weak zone, and trend indicators show that both long and short forces are declining and starting to stalemate [21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons and consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons and consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +60 with the spot price at 22330, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On August 26, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2550 tons to 65525 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1172 tons to 36366 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing downwards, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions increased, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.2 Zinc Futures Market Quotes - On August 26, for different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally declined. For example, for the 2510 contract, the previous settlement was 22355, the opening price was 22355, the highest price was 22395, the lowest price was 22245, the closing price was 22270, and the settlement reference price was 22305, with a decline of - 85 and - 50 respectively. The total trading volume was 149597 lots, and the total trading value was 1668458.69 [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On August 26, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Aoshi was 22330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet in China was 4089 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe in China was 4492 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22830 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27430 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7726 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.4 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From August 14 to August 25, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 10.99 million tons to 12.48 million tons. Compared with August 18, it increased by 0.97 million tons, and compared with August 21, it increased by 0.74 million tons [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report - On August 26, the total zinc warrants at SHFE were 36366 tons, an increase of 1172 tons. Among them, the warrants in Tianjin increased by 1172 tons to 17844 tons, and the warrants in Guangdong were 18522 tons with no change [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On August 26, the previous day's LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, with an inflow of 67975 tons, an outflow of 2550 tons, and the current inventory was 65525 tons, a decrease of 2550 tons [8]. 3.7 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On August 26, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was around 17000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10 yuan/ton. For example, in places like Jiyuan, Kunming, and Chifeng, the price was 17000 yuan/ton, 17000 yuan/ton, and 16900 yuan/ton respectively [10]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On August 26, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters varied. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Weixiang was 22550 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots from Sanjing Gangshi was 22880 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots from Guangdong Zhongjinlingnan was 22280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [14]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 45.97 million tons, and the actual production was 47.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and a 2.63% increase compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 47.03 million tons [16]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On August 26, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions were different. For example, in Hilt Hel, the average processing fee was 3800 yuan/metal ton; in Huludao, it was 4000 yuan/metal ton. The average processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 85 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 3.11 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2510 contract on August 26, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures with 25366 lots (down 9946 lots), Dongzheng Futures with 20851 lots (down 9712 lots), and Guotai Junan with 18410 lots (down 4405 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 14378 lots (down 881 lots), Dongzheng Futures with 6392 lots (up 459 lots), and Guotai Junan with 4899 lots (down 413 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 12224 lots (up 151 lots), Dongzheng Futures with 10385 lots (up 52 lots), and Guotai Junan with 7208 lots (up 7 lots) [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of coking coal is expected to be strong. Although the production of coking enterprises in some areas is restricted due to the approaching parade, the rigid demand for coking coal is strongly supported by the high level of steel mill hot metal and the increased production enthusiasm of coking enterprises after seven rounds of coke price increases [2]. - The short - term trend of coke is expected to be stable and slightly strong. The supply - demand pattern of the coke market remains tight as steel mill arrivals are delayed and environmental protection restrictions continue to suppress coking enterprise operations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - The supply from mines is frequently disturbed, and the increase in coking coal supply is limited. The online auction results of coking coal vary, with some coal types failing to be sold, and the prices of traded coal types fluctuate slightly. Mines have strong price - holding intentions due to low inventory and the background of continued coke price increases [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1190, and the basis is 29.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. Inventory Analysis - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week, including 805.8 million tons in steel mills, 255.5 million tons in ports, and 829.4 million tons in independent coking enterprises [2]. Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [2]. Position Analysis - The main coking coal contract has a net short position, and short positions are increasing [2]. Factors - Bullish factors: rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - Bearish factors: slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke Fundamental Analysis - After the seventh price increase, the profits of coking enterprises have been significantly repaired, and production enthusiasm is high. However, due to recent parade environmental protection policies, many coking enterprises have implemented production restrictions, and the start - up rate has declined. There is no inventory pressure under downstream demand support [5]. Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1640, and the basis is - 41, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. Inventory Analysis - The total sample inventory of coke is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week, including 609.8 million tons in steel mills, 215.1 million tons in ports, and 39.3 million tons in independent coking enterprises [5]. Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. Position Analysis - The main coke contract has a net short position, and short positions are increasing [5]. Factors - Bullish factors: rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish factors: squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7]. Price - On August 26 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing fluctuations [8]. - On August 26 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising and some falling [9]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [19]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [24]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China. The futures price, which previously rose due to rumors of increased export expectations, has fallen as actual export demand has not improved significantly. The market is expected to remain volatile today, influenced by factors such as high domestic production and inventory, weak domestic demand, and strong international prices, with the export policy not being more relaxed than expected [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been oscillating downward recently. The previous rise in futures prices due to rumors of improved China - India relations and increased export expectations did not materialize in actual export demand, leading to a decline in market sentiment. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level overall. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly. Although export profits have declined, they remain strong, and the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 73, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 143.7 million tons (-2.0), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, but the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. With the domestic supply still significantly exceeding demand, the UR is expected to oscillate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: International prices are strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Operating rates and daily production are at high levels, and domestic demand is weak [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand are the main influencing factors [5]. Market Data - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 1737 (-8), the price of the 05 contract is 1777 (-12), and the price of the 09 contract is 1703 (-11). The basis of the UR01 contract is 73 (up 8) [6]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 143.7 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 89.6 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 54.1 million tons, all unchanged [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown varying degrees of change. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: Due to the resurgence of European - American trade disputes, the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. The Shanghai gold premium continued to expand to 0.1 yuan/gram. With the high dovish expectations of the shadow Fed, the gold price is supported. Considering the global situation after Trump's inauguration and the shift from inflation to recession expectations, the gold price is still likely to rise and hard to fall [4]. - **Silver**: After Trump announced to "fire" the current Fed governor, but the Fed stated that Trump's power to remove the governor was limited, the silver price fluctuated and declined. The Shanghai silver premium expanded to about 440 yuan/kg. The silver price still mainly follows the gold price and is affected by tariff concerns [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes rose slightly, European three major stock indexes fell across the board. Most US bond yields declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 0.78 basis points to 4.261%. The US dollar index fell 0.20% to 98.24, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1534. COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3443.20 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of stock indexes, bond yields, and the US dollar index. COMEX silver futures fell 0.02% to $38.70 per ounce [6]. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.4, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 37503 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 43, neutral; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 13692 kilograms to 1127333 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [6]. 3.3 Today's Attention - Time TBD, from August 27th - 29th, the 2025 AGIC Shenzhen (International) General Artificial Intelligence Conference and General Artificial Intelligence Industry Expo will be held at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center. - At 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in July and Australia's CPI in July will be released. - At 12:01, Richmond Fed President Barkin (a 2027 FOMC voter) will talk about the economy again [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump's inauguration, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to recession expectations, making it difficult for the gold price to decline. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and reality will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver**: It follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: On August 26, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold was 625,171, an increase of 0.47% from the previous day; the short position volume was 472,276, an increase of 0.25%; the net position was 152,895, an increase of 1.14% [30]. - **Silver**: On August 26, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver was 1,082,920, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous day; the short position volume was 993,680, a decrease of 2.78%; the net position was 89,240, a decrease of 8.77% [33].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the monthly arrival level on the supply side has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, a crude steel production reduction policy will be introduced, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot price at Rizhao Port is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor [2]. - Port inventories are 143.8157 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of the capacity - reduction plan on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrival levels are down this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are down, a crude steel production reduction policy is coming, and the trade war is easing, neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 817, with a basis of 40; Rizhao Port Brazilian blend spot converted to the futures price is 829, with a basis of 53, spot at a premium to futures, bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are 143.8157 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Domestic demand is decreasing, and the capacity - reduction plan impacts the market, with a high - level fluctuation outlook [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - Import losses exist [6]. - Downstream steel prices are rising, with a strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish Factors - Later shipments will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].