1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a slightly stronger and volatile trend today. This is due to factors such as cost support, the expected upcoming anti - involution reform plan in the petrochemical industry, but also constrained by weak demand [4][6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. An overall reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7350 (+50), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 52, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 564,000 tons (+59,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. With the expectation of anti - involution policies and weak agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory, the PE market is expected to trend slightly stronger and volatile today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the expected upcoming petrochemical anti - involution reform plan are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic data shows a manufacturing contraction in July. An overall reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is in the works. Downstream demand in the pipe and plastic weaving sectors is slightly improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7050 (+20), with overall neutral fundamentals [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 4, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.1%, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 572,000 tons (-15,000), which is neutral [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. With the expectation of anti - involution policies and slightly improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, the PP market is expected to trend slightly stronger and volatile today [8]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the expected upcoming petrochemical anti - involution reform plan are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [9]. Data Tables - **Spot and Futures Market**: The data shows the prices and price changes of LLDPE and PP spot and futures contracts, as well as the basis and inventory information [11]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provides historical supply - demand balance data for polyethylene and polypropylene from 2018 - 2024, including capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators, along with estimated data for 2025 [16][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market presents a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. The short - term outlook for the sugar main contract 01 is a downward trend under pressure at 5700, with support around 5600. Although there has been a significant increase in imported sugar in recent months, the spot price remains relatively firm [5]. - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production and a supply surplus in the new year [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information about the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: SCA Brasil estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% decrease year - on - year. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, with a sales rate of 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 6030, and the basis for the 01 contract is 398, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The sugar main contract 01 is under short - term pressure at 5700 and is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Although the import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, the current spot price is relatively firm and less affected by the impact of imported sugar. The support level for sugar 01 is around 5600 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information about today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool forecasts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA forecasts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons, Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 780,000 tons, and Datagro forecasts a surplus of 258,000 tons [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are expected to be 5 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons, with a balance change of 120,000 tons [37]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,538, with a basis of 38, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,638, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. It is bullish [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have turned to short positions. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,986, with a basis of 165, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. It is bearish [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly oscillate weakly. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: There are few maintenance works at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass is declining, and terminal demand is weakening. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,311 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 111 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, suggesting a bearish trend [2][36]. - Market trend: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, showing a bearish sign [2]. - Main positions: The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand of soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The peak season for summer maintenance is coming, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with industry output at a historical high for the same period; the production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has been reduced, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment from the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.94%, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe decreased by 1.64%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 5.13% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The production profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - soda process is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline in the operating rate has been postponed [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with the output at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale increase in new production capacity of soda ash, with a total planned increase of 1.57 billion tons, and the actual production launched in 2025 is 1 million tons [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - In the downstream of soda ash, the national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [33]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of various indicators [37].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. Although there has been a phased restocking downstream and a reduction in glass factory inventories, the sustainability of this inventory reduction is questionable. It is expected that glass will mainly show a wide - range oscillatory trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1191 yuan/ton to 1173 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.51%. The spot price of the main benchmark product in Shahe decreased from 1072 yuan/ton to 1064 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%. The main basis decreased from - 119 yuan/ton to - 109 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.40% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1064 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The production profit of glass has declined, and the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down. The start - up rate and production volume have dropped to the lowest level in the same period in history [2]. - **Supply**: The number of operating national float glass production lines is 223, with a start - up rate of 75.34%. The daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history but has stabilized and rebounded [23][25]. - **Demand**: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The terminal real - estate demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventories [29][4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.606 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.28% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [43]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have fluctuated. In 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [44]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The terminal real - estate demand is weak, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows that the supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is expected to strengthen in the next month with potential inventory reduction. The cost - dominated situation has weakened, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 77,640 - 81,120 [8][9]. - The overall situation of the lithium - related industry is affected by factors such as production capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily -环比 cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 78,817 yuan/ton, a 0.89% daily decrease, with a profit of 2,516 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 81,868 yuan/ton, a 3.53% daily decrease, with a loss of 5,641 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is low. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - **Market Situation**: The basis of the 11 - contract is 3,120 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The overall inventory is 141,543 tons, a 0.50% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The main position is net short, and the short position increases. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above the MA20 [10]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power - battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salt, cathode materials, and lithium batteries have different degrees of changes, including increases and decreases [16]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import, export, inventory, and other data of lithium carbonate and related products show different trends of increase and decrease [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore shows a certain trend of change, and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has different levels of production in different months and years [26]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [29]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) show different trends [32]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed, and the export volume from Chile to China has also shown a downward trend [32][35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [38]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) show different trends [41]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed in different months and years [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds from different raw materials (spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, recycled materials) show different trends [46][49]. - **Processing and Purification Profit**: The processing profit between different types of lithium hydroxide and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also show different trends [49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) shows different trends of increase and decrease [19][54]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) shows different trends [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price, production, and shipment volume of lithium batteries show different trends, and the export volume of lithium batteries also changes in different years [58]. - **Cost**: The cost of lithium - battery cells shows different trends [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary precursor shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of different types of ternary precursors also shows different trends [63]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors show different trends [63]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of different types of ternary materials also shows different trends [69]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and weekly inventory of ternary materials show different trends [69][71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of iron phosphate lithium also shows different trends [73]. - **Production and Export**: The monthly production and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium show different trends [76]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium shows different trends [78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles show different trends, and the sales penetration rate also changes [81][82]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers show different trends [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - From the supply side, in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, the output of sample enterprises decreased, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased. Next week, the supply pressure may decrease [8]. - From the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average level. The construction of various types of asphalt and related downstream industries shows different trends, with some开工 rates decreasing and some remaining flat [8]. - From the cost side, the daily asphalt processing profit is negative, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [9]. - The basis shows that on August 25, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the October contract was 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the port diluted asphalt inventory decreased [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the October contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [9]. - The main positions are net long, changing from short to long, showing a bullish trend [9]. - It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,490 - 3,534 [9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The planned production volume in August 2025 decreased month - on - month, and this week's production - related indicators such as capacity utilization rate and output decreased, while the maintenance volume increased [8]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average, with different trends in the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related downstream industries [8]. - Cost: The asphalt processing profit is negative, and the delayed coking profit decreased. Crude oil weakening weakens the cost support [9]. - Basis: The spot is at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased, factory inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the October contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [9]. - Main Positions: Net long, changing from short to long, showing a bullish trend [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating between 3,490 - 3,534 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - This part provides data on the price, inventory, and other indicators of different asphalt contracts, including changes in prices, inventory quantities, and their corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - It presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22]. - **Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [37][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Volume Trends**: It presents the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production volume from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: It presents the historical trends of apparent consumption volume from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: It shows the historical trends of downstream demand indicators such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, etc. from 2019 to 2025 [87][90]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate, asphalt capacity utilization rate by use, and downstream capacity utilization rate (including various types of modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane) from 2019 to 2025 [95][98][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2025, including data on downstream demand, inventory, import, export, and production volume [106].

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: "利好出尽，菜粕冲高回落（菜粕周报8.18 - 8.22）" [1] - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is influenced by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports, the demand seasonality, and the soybean meal market. In the short term, it is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern, but there are still uncertainties [8]. - The trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is short - term volatile and relatively strong, with the RM2601 contract oscillating above 2500 in the short term. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the supply expectation of the domestic rapeseed market has improved while demand remains strong [10]. - The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The result of the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain [10]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly due to lower - than - expected yields in the EU and Canada [10]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting impact on rapeseed production, and the potential increase in global geopolitical conflicts still supports commodity prices [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [11]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, the harvest area, production, total supply, and other indicators of domestic rapeseed have changed. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated between 0.87% - 7.19% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, the production, total supply, demand, and inventory of domestic rapeseed meal have changed. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated between 2.47% - 10.55% [18]. - **Other Fundamental Data**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in August was lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost; the oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly; the rapeseed inventory in oil mills dropped to a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly; the prices of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the prices of shrimp and shellfish remained stable; the rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downwards after rising, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium narrowed; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract was weakly volatile [19][21][23][31][33][37]. 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players in the rapeseed meal market increased, and the funds flowed out [8]. 6. Technical Analysis - Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal is in a short - and medium - term volatile and relatively strong pattern. The KDJ and MACD indicators show that the short - term market is in a technical adjustment phase, and the future trend depends on policies and the soybean meal market [43]. 7. Next Week's Focus - Most important: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas; the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand; the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [46]. - Second most important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture; the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [47]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market is in a short - term strong - side fluctuating pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in the EU and lower - than - expected output in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Volume and Price Difference**: From August 14 to August 25, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was generally low, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, with the difference on August 25 being 500 [13]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From August 15 to August 25, rapeseed meal futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while the spot price remained relatively stable. The spot price in Fujian on August 25 was 2580 [15]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 13 to August 25, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9821 to 8066, with a continuous decline [17]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 2.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 25% [9]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9].

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand was weak, inventory was high, and cost support weakened during the wet season. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 8850 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, demand is in a continuous recovery state, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50340 - 52820 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 88,000 tons, a 15% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 79,000 tons, a 12.5% decrease from the previous week, and demand remained weak [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 3174 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On August 25, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 425 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 543,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 175,100 tons, a 2.31% increase; major port inventory was 117,000 tons, remaining unchanged [6]. - Disk: MA20 was downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease from the previous week. The estimated production in August was 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 12.29GW, a 1.57% increase; the battery cell production continued to increase; the component production was expected to decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term [9][10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 35,590 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 12,410 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On August 25, the price of N - type dense material was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2580 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.89% increase, at a historically high level [10]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon price: Various contract prices, spot prices, and price differences showed different trends. For example, the 01 - contract price decreased by 0.66%, and the price difference between 421 and 553 decreased by 9.09% [16]. - Polysilicon price: Various contract prices, spot prices, and cost - profit data showed different trends. For example, the 06 - contract price increased by 0.52%, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry decreased by 0.28% [18].