大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月13日 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 利空：高价货源需求不足；整体需求下行，欧美经济衰退预期加强。 主要逻辑：供应端来看，供给压力仍处高位；需求端来看，复苏乏力。 每日观点 主要风险点：原油价格的走势变化;；沥青焦化物利润差走势。 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为31.8792%，环比减少 1.44个百分点，全国样本企业出货30.88万吨，环比减少6.79%,样本企业产量为53.2 万吨，环比减少4.31%,样本企业装置检修量预估为74.5万吨，环比增加22.53%,本周 炼厂有所减产， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-13甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：基本面转弱的预期下，预计短期国内甲醇延续偏弱运行。内地来看，多套烯烃装置在11月份有检修计划， 传统下游醋酸开工偏低、鲁北大型甲醇制氢装置停车检修，需求面的利空作用明显。当前国内甲醇开工高位，以及上游 甲醇工厂仍维持低库存仍然出货为主。综合来看供需矛盾短期内难有缓和，同时考虑到当前甲醇价格已处于低位，贸易 商谨慎做空对底部价格有支撑，预计跌幅有限。港口方面，海外高供应预期和港口高库存空头氛围压制下，预计本周港 口甲醇市场延续弱势下跌，关注制裁事件后续影响、伊朗发货情况、沿海MTO开工等情况；中性 2、基差：江 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. - Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,340 - 87,820 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a 2.15% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease [10]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 105,719 tons, a 0.70% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary materials was 19,553 tons, a 3.51% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 82,955 yuan/ton, a 0.66% daily increase, with a loss of 815 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 86,558 yuan/ton, a 0.54% daily increase, with a loss of 6,476 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral. Basis: On November 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish. Inventory: The total inventory is 123,953 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Neutral. Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. Bullish. Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased. Bearish [9][12]. - Bullish factors: Manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [13]. - Bearish factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains high, and the decline is limited; the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [14]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.92% to 984 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.22% to 83,300 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium ore: The monthly production of lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and other lithium ores showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 10.61% to 520,514 tons, and the import volume from Australia increased by 64.07% to 347,215 tons [19]. - Lithium carbonate: The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 123,953 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week decrease. The monthly production in October 2025 was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly import volume was 19,596.90 tons, a 10.30% decrease [19]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide was 29,220 tons, a 6.37% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly net export volume was 5,053.18 tons, a 13.60% increase [19]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - Lithium battery: The monthly production of power batteries, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries, and the export volume of lithium batteries all showed different degrees of growth. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60% to 76,000 GWh [19]. - Ternary precursor: The monthly production of ternary precursors was 92,400 tons, a 4.92% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 7,800 tons, a 101.73% increase [64]. - Ternary material: The monthly production of ternary materials was 12,450 tons, a 12.67% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 2,000 tons, a 100% increase [67]. - Lithium iron phosphate: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, a 10.54% increase compared to the previous month. The monthly export volume was 3,091,994 kilograms, a 54.57% increase [19]. - New energy vehicle: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles all showed different degrees of growth. For example, the production increased by 9.59% to 1,772,000 vehicles, and the sales increased by 14.98% to 1.604 million vehicles [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The market is in a neutral state, with the spot price at 3000 (East China), a negative basis of -59, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, showing a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, but the main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in. The short - term is likely to maintain a fluctuating pattern due to various factors such as China's soybean procurement and South American planting weather [8][9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The market is neutral, with a spot price of 4100 and a basis of -27, also at a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, while the main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing out. It will maintain a fluctuating pattern influenced by factors like China's soybean procurement and South American planting weather [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2601 and soybean A2601 are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges, affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement, South American planting weather, domestic demand, and inventory levels [9][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement quantity and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is likely to be relatively strong above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the oil - mill soybean inventory also declined from a high level. Domestic soybean meal is likely to return to a fluctuating pattern, affected by factors such as US soybean trends, demand off - season, and inventory levels [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing its price. The market will wait for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports its price [15]. - **Bearish**: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production, suppress the price of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 3000 (East China), with a negative basis of -59. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a negative basis of -27. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase year - on - year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing out [11].

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 13, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show weak and volatile trends today due to oversupply, with neutral to high industrial inventories and fluctuating crude oil prices [4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US leaders' meeting, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but restocking for other films is ending. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6840 (+20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 52, with a premium ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in China-US talks; bearish factors are weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in Q4 [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing sentiment declined in October. After the China-US leaders' meeting and OPEC+ announcement, oil prices fluctuated. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is improving. The current PP delivery spot price is 6470 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 10, with a premium ratio of 0.2%, considered neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, still bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors are new sanctions on Russian oil and a phased easing in China-US talks; bearish factors are weak year-on-year demand and significant new production capacity in Q4 [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6840 (+20), the 01 contract price is 6788 (+28), the basis is 52 (-8), the import price in US dollars is 813 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 7114 (unchanged), and the import spread is -274 (+20). The warehouse receipt is 12,067 (-6), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000), and the social inventory is 500,000 tons (-100,000) [8] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6470 (unchanged), the 01 contract price is 6460 (+31), the basis is 10 (-31), the import price in US dollars is 765 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6702 (unchanged), and the import spread is -232 (unchanged). The warehouse receipt is 14,642 (+13), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000), and the social inventory is 324,000 tons (-9,000) [8] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4,319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4,906 [15]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-13锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2601： 2 1.基本面：当前硅锰市场呈现偏弱震荡格局，11月关注钢厂减产情况对硅锰合金需求的影响；中性。 2.基差：现货价5700元/吨，01合约基差-62元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20走平，01合约期价收于MA20下方。中性。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2601：5700-5840震荡运行。 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the sugar industry. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) is relatively resistant to decline compared to the continuously falling international sugar prices, and the near - term contracts of Zheng sugar are stronger than the far - term ones, which may be related to the high spot price of new sugar. However, in the long - run, the divergence between domestic and international sugar price trends is unsustainable. For short - sellers, it is recommended to lay out short positions on the 05 contract when the price rises as the 01 contract approaches delivery [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new season, the international sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review There is no content related to the previous day's review in the provided text. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply. DATAGRO expects the surplus to decrease from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons; ISO estimates a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, which is significantly reduced compared to the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1.11621 billion tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 252 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August 2024/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is considered neutral. The state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons [5][8]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus There is no content related to today's focus in the provided text. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expects the supply gap to narrow to 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow estimates a surplus of 6.2 million tons (or 7.5 million tons in another mention); Datagro forecasts a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to increase from 11.2 million tons in the October forecast to 11.7 million tons in the November forecast, while the consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the import is estimated to be 5 million tons, with a surplus change of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar after tax was about 5,086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profit due to the continuous decline of the international sugar price [42]. 3.5 Position Data There is no specific content related to position data other than the information about the main position mentioned above.

Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Date: 2025-11-13 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei -从业资格号: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - TEL: 0575-85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The price of fats and oils is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of fats and oils is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of fats and oils are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, entering the production cut season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8470, the basis is 182, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. [2] - **Expectation**: Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8050 - 8450. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with a less-than-expected production cut. Currently, the export data has increased month-on-month, and subsequently entering the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8700, the basis is 44, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract increased. [3] - **Expectation**: Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with a less-than-expected production cut. Currently, the export data has increased month-on-month, and subsequently entering the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10186, the basis is 346, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. [4] - **Expectation**: Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **利空**: The price of fats and oils is historically high, and the domestic inventory of fats and oils continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related fats and oils is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of fats and oils are relatively loose. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - IC2512 has a discount of 88.05 points, and IM2512 has a discount of 116.58 points, indicating a bearish signal [3] - The previous day, the two markets rebounded after hitting bottom. The high - dividend sector continued to strengthen, while the technology and communication sectors declined and adjusted, showing market divergence, with a neutral outlook [3] - The margin trading balance was 2487.1 billion yuan, an increase of 400 million yuan, indicating a bullish signal [3] - IH2512 has a discount of 1.5 points, and IF2512 has a discount of 17.91 points, showing a neutral situation [3] - The order of performance is IH > IC > IF > IM. IM, IH, IF, and IC are above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [3] - The long positions of IF and IH main contracts increased, while those of IC main contracts decreased, indicating a bullish signal [3] - Currently, the Shanghai Composite Index is fluctuating around the 4000 mark. Benefiting from the good news that the two US parties will end the government shutdown, the global stock markets rebounded. The high - dividend sector strengthened, and the technology and growth sectors declined and adjusted. The overall market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to appropriately reduce positions on rallies [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Index Futures Quotes - For the Shanghai 50 Index (IH), IH2511 had a contract price of 3,046.80 with a 0.38% increase, IH2512 had a contract price of 3,042.80 with a 0.34% increase, IH2603 had a contract price of 3,037.60 with a 0.25% increase, and IH2606 had a contract price of 3,030.00 with a 0.24% increase [4] - For the CSI 300 Index (IF), IF2511 had a contract price of 4,645.00 with a - 0.03% decrease, IF2512 had a contract price of 4,628.00 with a - 0.09% decrease, IF2603 had a contract price of 4,601.00 with a - 0.07% decrease, and IF2606 had a contract price of 4,558.20 with a - 0.08% decrease [4] - For the CSI 500 Index (IC), IC2511 had a contract price of 7,224.00 with a - 0.37% decrease, IC2512 had a contract price of 7,155.20 with a - 0.41% decrease, IC2603 had a contract price of 6,982.40 with a - 0.39% decrease, and IC2606 had a contract price of 6,785.80 with a - 0.45% decrease [4] - For the CSI 1000 Index (IM), IM2511 had a contract price of 7,458.20 with a - 0.38% decrease, IM2512 had a contract price of 7,369.80 with a - 0.43% decrease, IM2603 had a contract price of 7,148.60 with a - 0.42% decrease, and IM2606 had a contract price of 6,919.80 with a - 0.54% decrease [4] Basis and Spread - Provided historical data on the basis and spread of the Shanghai 50 Index and the CSI 500 Index from 2021 to 2025 [7][10] Spot Market Important Index Daily Returns - The Shanghai Composite Index had a - 0.07% change, the Shanghai 50 Index had a 0.32% increase, the CSI 300 Index had a - 0.13% decrease, the Wind All - A Index had a - 0.38% decrease, the CSI 500 Index had a - 0.66% decrease, the Shenzhen Component Index had a - 0.36% decrease, the STAR 50 Index had a - 0.58% decrease, and the ChiNext Index had a - 0.39% decrease [13] Style Index Daily Returns - Different style indices such as the 300 Cycle Index, 300 Non - Cycle Index, Low - P/E Index, etc., showed different daily returns, ranging from - 1.00% to 0.36% [16][20] Market Structure AH - Share Premium - Provided historical data on the AH - share premium index from February 2025 to November 2025 [23] Price - to - Earnings (PE) Ratio - Showed the historical PE ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices from 2004 to 2025 [26] Price - to - Book (PB) Ratio - Presented the historical PB ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices from 2004 to 2025 [28] Market Funding Stock Market Fund Inflow - Provided historical data on A - share fund net inflow and the CSI 300 Index from 2021 to 2025 [30] Margin Trading Balance - Showed the historical margin trading balance and the CSI 300 Index from 2021 to 2025 [32] Northbound Capital Inflow - Provided historical data on the net inflow of northbound capital from 2021 to 2024 [34] Capital Cost - Showed the historical data of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates from February 2025 to November 2025 [40] Market Sentiment Trading Activity - Provided historical data on the turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices from 2022 to 2025 [43][44][46][47] Publicly - Offered Hybrid Fund Positions - Provided related data on publicly - offered hybrid fund positions, with data sourced from Wind [48] Other Indicators Index Dividend Yield and 10 - Year Treasury Yield - Showed the historical data of the dividend yields of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices and the 10 - year treasury yield from 2015 to 2025 [52] RMB Exchange Rate - Provided the historical exchange rate data of the US dollar against the RMB from 2021 to 2025 [54] New Account Openings and Shanghai Composite Index Tracking - Related to the tracking of new account openings and the Shanghai Composite Index, specific data not detailed [55] Newly - Established Fund Scale Changes - Included the changes in the newly - established scales of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds, specific data not detailed [57][59][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the US government reopening is high, with economic data cooling in advance and the expectation of interest rate cuts rising again, leading to an increase in gold and silver prices. The end of the US government shutdown is optimistically expected, risk appetite is recovering, and gold and silver prices are showing strength. COMEX silver has seen large short - term trading orders around 2 am for four consecutive days, and its price may fluctuate significantly [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US government is expected to reopen, economic data cooling expectations are ahead, and interest rate cut expectations are rising again, causing the gold price to increase. The US three major stock indexes closed with mixed results, European three major stock indexes closed up across the board, US bond yields were mixed, the 10 - year US bond yield remained flat at 4.067%, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 99.47, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1125, and COMEX gold futures rose 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce. The basis is - 2.9, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1800 kilograms to 89616 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price soared. COMEX silver futures rose 4.90% to $53.23 per ounce. The basis is 0, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 8824 kilograms to 583060 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The US government's reopening expectation, economic data cooling, and interest rate cut expectations are the main factors affecting the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to - 3 yuan/gram. The optimistic expectation of the end of the US government shutdown, the recovery of risk appetite, and the return of interest rate cut expectations make the gold price strong [4]. - **Silver**: The silver price has shown an abnormal increase, with a significant increase in positions. COMEX silver has seen large short - term trading orders around 2 am for four consecutive days, and the silver price may fluctuate significantly. The silver premium has converged to 250 yuan/gram. The end of the US government shutdown is optimistically expected, risk appetite is recovering, and the silver price remains strong under the push of funds [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 08:00: The US House of Representatives will vote on the draft to end the government shutdown. - 08:30: Australia's October employment report (including employment population and unemployment rate). - Time TBD: The 2025 6G Development Conference will be held in Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area from November 13 - 14. - 15:00: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce will hold its second regular press conference in November, and the UK's preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be released. - 17:00: The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank will release an economic report, and the Governing Council member of the European Central Bank and the Governor of the Bank of France will speak. - 20:00: Greene, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, will speak. - 21:00: Daly, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (a voting member of the FOMC in 2027), will talk about balance sheet management, and Elderson, an Executive Board member of the European Central Bank, will speak. - 23:30: Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (a voting member of the FOMC in 2026), will speak. - Next day 01:15: Musalem, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (a voting member of the FOMC in 2025), will participate in a fireside chat related to monetary policy. - Next day 01:20: Hammack, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (a voting member of the FOMC in 2026), will participate in a discussion. - Next day 01:30: Tschudin of the Swiss National Bank will speak at a money market event in Geneva. - Next day 04:10: Prasanna Gai, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, will speak. - Next day 06:10: McPhee, an Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, will participate in a fireside chat [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, the latter two of the three major factors (US government shutdown, Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and Sino - US tariff escalation concerns) have significantly improved or even reversed, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - **Silver**: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting the silver price include both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors are global turmoil, significant shadow Federal Reserve, continued interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors are the rising expectation of stopping interest rate cuts, large differences within the Federal Reserve, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, the US standing out again, the deterioration of risk preference, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2966 to 168369, the short positions decreased by 453 to 70081, and the net position decreased by 2513 to 98288. The SPDR gold ETF position has increased in a fluctuating manner [4][31][35]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 19974 to 387780, the short positions increased by 9470 to 265083, and the net position increased by 10504 to 122697. The silver ETF position is fluctuating and still higher than the same period in the past two years [5][33][38].