Report Title - Manganese Silicon Weekly Report (11.3 - 11.7) [1] Core Viewpoints - From the cost side, the third round of coke price hikes has been implemented and prices are stable after the increase, while the manganese ore market is showing a strong trend, making the cost side of silicon manganese relatively firm. In the northern region, after the second round of coke price hikes in late October, freight rates in the main production areas of Inner Mongolia have increased. In Ningxia, due to the decline in electricity prices last month, the overall cost gap with the main production areas in Inner Mongolia has decreased. [2] - From the supply side, in early November, the silicon manganese market continued the weak and volatile trend of October. In November, the wait - and - see sentiment in both the north and south regions is still strong. In the northern region, there are planned new silicon manganese production capacities, but the specific ignition time depends on the market situation. Currently, northern enterprises mainly focus on fulfilling steel procurement orders and futures warehouse receipts, with a low willingness to quote for retail. In the southern region, the dry season has officially begun, and the electricity price in Yunnan has increased significantly, leading to production cuts in alloy plants. [2] - From the demand side, steel mills will conduct concentrated maintenance in mid - to - late November, with an estimated reduction in production, which may reduce the demand for silicon manganese alloy. Overall, the current silicon manganese market shows a weak and volatile pattern, and the most important factor to watch in November is the impact of steel mill production cuts on the demand for silicon manganese alloy. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term. [2] Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: The document presents the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon manganese enterprises [6][7] - **Annual Production**: It shows the annual production of silicon manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and the whole of China [8][9] - **Weekly, Monthly Production and Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon manganese and the weekly operating rate of Chinese silicon manganese enterprises are presented [10][11] - **Regional Production**: It includes the monthly production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as the daily average production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13] Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Procurement Price**: The monthly procurement prices of silicon manganese 6517 by various steel enterprises such as Baosteel, Baowu Egang, and others are shown [15][16] - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: The weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 Chinese steel enterprises are presented [17][18] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - The monthly import and export volumes of Chinese silicon manganese iron are presented [19][20] Manganese Silicon Inventory - The weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China, and the monthly average available inventory days in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are presented [21][22] Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: The monthly import volumes of manganese ore from different sources and trade methods are presented [23][24] - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: The weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, as well as the weekly average available inventory days in China are presented [25][26] - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: The weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore from different origins in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port is presented [27][28] - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: The daily price of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port is presented [29] - **Regional Cost**: The daily cost of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi is presented [30][31] Manganese Silicon Profit - The daily profit of silicon manganese in the northern region, southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi is presented [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The preliminary agreement in the China-US trade negotiation has a short - term positive impact on US soybeans, but the subsequent negotiation and weather in the US soybean - growing areas remain uncertain. US soybeans are expected to fluctuate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal markets will also be affected by factors such as US soybean prices, import volumes, and downstream demand [13][34]. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain a short - term range - bound pattern. The short - term demand is in the off - season, and the spot price discount restricts the upward space of the futures price. The market is waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported soybeans [10]. - The price of domestic soybeans is affected by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic demand, and the expected increase in domestic production. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the market focusing on the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas and the follow - up of the China - US trade agreement [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Prompt There is no specific content provided for the weekly prompt in the given text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is waiting for the harvest situation and the planting weather in South America, as well as the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from its high in November. The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills remained high in November. After the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, the arrival of imported soybeans at the end of the year is expected to increase, but the demand for soybean meal is in the off - season [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. However, the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is positive for US soybeans, and the cost of imported soybeans is expected to rise at the end of the year, so soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas remains uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean futures price; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Short factors**: After the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, China has started to purchase US soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The short - term weather in some US soybean - growing areas is normal, with a neutral impact. In the next week, the weather in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Import cost**: US soybeans are fluctuating strongly. With the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, the import cost is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a neutral or bullish impact [9]. - **Oil mill crushing**: The demand for soybean meal has weakened in the short term, and the crushing volume of oil mills has declined from its high. The demand is expected to remain weak in the short term, and the operating rate of oil mills is expected to remain low, with a bullish impact [9]. - **Trading volume**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stocking has weakened, and the market trading volume is expected to be low, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Oil mill inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from its high. As the upstream operating rate has dropped to a low level, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, with a bullish impact [9]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, indicating a bearish signal [10]. - For soybeans, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, indicating a bearish signal [11]. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance of global soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months It presents data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from March to September 2025 [22]. US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress It details the progress of US soybean planting, growth, and harvest in 2024 and 2025, including sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting rates, as well as the comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [23][24][25][29]. Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress It shows the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/25 and 2025/26, as well as the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 [26][28][30]. Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance of domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [36]. Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported soybean arrival**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from its high in November, with an overall year - on - year increase [37]. - **Oil mill crushing and inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills has declined from its high, while the soybean meal inventory has increased to a high level. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills has declined from its high, and the soybean meal production in September increased year - on - year [38][39]. - **Soybean meal trading**: The orders of domestic downstream buyers have decreased slightly, and the pick - up volume has declined from its high [45]. - **Pig farming inventory**: The pig inventory has continued to rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has declined slightly month - on - month. The pig price has stopped falling and rebounded recently, while the piglet price remains weak [47][49]. 7. Meal Market Structure - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal basis analysis**: The soybean meal futures price has risen and then fallen, while the spot price has remained relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot discount [58]. - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal price difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has also fluctuated slightly [60]. 8. Technical Analysis Soybean Technical Analysis The soybean futures price has risen and then fallen, affected by the price of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a high - level oscillation state, indicating that the soybean futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, waiting for new market guidance [66]. Soybean Meal Technical Analysis The soybean meal futures price has risen and then fallen, affected by the rise in US soybean prices, the China - US trade negotiation agreement, and the short - term weakening of domestic demand. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the soybean meal futures are in a short - term technical adjustment stage, and the market is waiting for new guidance from the US and domestic markets [69]. 9. Next Week's Focus Points - **Most important**: The harvest weather in the US soybean - growing areas, the follow - up implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - **Second most important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and the downstream procurement situation [74]. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market is under bearish influence due to uncertainties in US trade negotiations, which put pressure on the global economy, and the current off - season for oil consumption. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The recommended short - term trading range is between 445 and 470, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [8]. - There may be a significant oversupply situation in the oil market in early 2026, and if there are no supply disruptions caused by sanctions, the oil market is likely to face an oversupply next year [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated slightly lower. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $59.84 per barrel, down 1.71% for the week; ICE Brent crude futures closed at $63.70 per barrel, down 1.36% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 459.6 yuan per barrel, up 0.20% for the week [5]. - OPEC+ continued to increase production by 138,000 barrels per day until December but suspended the planned production increase in the first quarter of next year, which alleviated market concerns about a rapid increase in supply to some extent. OPEC's crude oil production increased in October, but the growth rate slowed significantly compared to September and summer [5]. - API and EIA crude oil inventory data showed a build - up, which pressured oil prices. The US government shutdown, internal policy differences within the Fed, and the strengthening of the US dollar also affected oil prices [5]. - In the week ending November 4, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 19,336 contracts to 152,231 contracts. As of the week ending September 23, speculators' net long positions in WTI crude oil increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [5]. - Trump said he was open to talking about lifting sanctions on Iran, but Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei remained tough. The main obstacle in the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West is the uranium enrichment issue in Iran [6]. 3.2 Related News - Market expectations for the Trump administration to win the IEEPA tariff case have cooled significantly. If the court overturns the "reciprocal tariffs" based on IEEPA, it may trigger a trading boom, but the market boost may be short - lived [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Due to uncertainties in US trade negotiations and the off - season for oil consumption, the oil market is bearish. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asian customers by $1.20 per barrel in December. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 445 - 470, and long - term investors should wait and see [8]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties decreased last week. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd dropped from $65.55 to $64.80, a decline of 1.15% [10]. - **Inventory data**: - **Cushing inventory**: Fluctuated from August 15 to October 31, with an increase of 419,000 barrels on August 15 and a decrease of 838,000 barrels on August 22 [12]. - **EIA inventory**: Also fluctuated during the period from August 29 to October 31, with an increase of 2.415 million barrels on August 29 and a decrease of 9.285 million barrels on September 12 [13]. 3.5持仓数据 - **CFTC fund net long positions**: Fluctuated from August 12 to September 23. For example, on August 12, the net long position was 116,742 contracts, a decrease of 25,087 contracts compared to the previous period [20]. - **ICE fund net long positions**: Fluctuated from September 2 to November 4. For example, on September 2, the net long position was 251,054 contracts, an increase of 44,511 contracts compared to the previous period. As of November 4, it decreased by 19,336 contracts to 152,231 contracts [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 4,696 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,611 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.81%. It is expected that the demand may remain sluggish next week. Meanwhile, the number of planned maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly. The market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.70%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 80.75%, a month-on-month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 345,350 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.89%, while the production of ethylene enterprises was 146,770 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.63%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production [5]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 37.61%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 39.4%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 71.79%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 78.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.370 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [5]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was -769.4 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase in losses of 0.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was -465.05 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease in losses of 14.00%, lower than the historical average. The double-ton spread was 2,239.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 334,596 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,396 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.78%. Ethylene factory inventory was 84,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.63%. Social inventory was 545,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.20%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.5 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.65%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. The report provides charts of price trends, trading volume, and open interest, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents charts of basis trends and spreads between different contracts, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is provided [10][16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method**: The report provides historical data charts of prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi-coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [19][22][24][26][29]. - **Supply and Demand Trends**: The report provides historical data charts of supply and demand indicators such as production, operating rates, trade volumes, pre-sales volumes, production and sales ratios, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [31][33][36][37][40]. - **Inventory**: The report provides historical data charts of inventory indicators such as exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [48]. - **Ethylene Method**: The report provides historical data charts of import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volumes, and price spreads in the ethylene method, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [50]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly supply and demand balance sheet for PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including data on exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports [53]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. Based on the price chart and moving average indicators, it is expected that the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [57][58].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Last week, the glass futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract FG2601 closing at 1091 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous week. The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1052 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous week. The glass fundamentals show stable supply and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly View - Futures: The main contract FG2601 of glass futures closed at 1091 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous week [3]. - Spot: The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1052 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous week [3]. - Supply: The "coal - to - gas" project in Shahe led to the shutdown of 4 coal - fired production lines, and the national float glass production line in operation was 222, with an operating rate of 75.92% and a daily melting volume of 159,100 tons, showing a low - level rebound [3]. - Demand: The recovery of the terminal real estate is weak. Processors may continue to operate difficultly under the dual pressures of weak orders and tight funds. As of November 6, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, down 4.03% from the previous week, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period [3]. Influence Factor Summary - Bullish factors: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy and environmental protection policy, the production capacity of the float glass industry has been cleared, and there has been a loss in production due to the "coal - to - gas" project and cold repair in the Shahe area [4]. - Bearish factors: The supply of glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate weakly at a low level [4]. Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market | Week | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Spot Benchmark Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1083 | 1048 | - 35 | | Current Value | 1091 | 1052 | - 39 | | Change Rate | 0.74% | 0.38% | 11.43% | [6] Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1052 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous week [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit No specific content about cost and profit analysis is provided in the report. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 222, with an operating rate of 75.92%, and the glass production line operation number is at a low level in the same period [22]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a low level in the same period [24]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [28]. - Other aspects such as housing sales, new construction, construction, completion area, and downstream processor operation and order conditions are mentioned but lack specific data analysis in this summary [29][31][38]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, down 4.03% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.22% lower than the previous week at 1,210 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week. The supply had minor fluctuations due to equipment issues in some enterprises, and the overall supply was abundant with the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II by the end of the year. The downstream demand was average, and the inventory was at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remained weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View - Futures: The main contract SA2601 of soda ash futures closed at 1,210 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous week [3]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week [3]. - Supply: There were short - term reductions due to equipment problems in some enterprises, but the overall output had minor adjustments. The expected output next week was 740,000 tons, and the operating rate was 85%. Yuangxing Energy's Phase II was expected to be commissioned by the end of the year, with abundant overall supply [3]. - Demand: The downstream demand was general, and the funds were under pressure. The daily melting volume of float glass was 159,100 tons, a decrease of 2,140 tons from the previous week; the daily output of photovoltaic glass was 88,100 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons [3]. - Inventory: As of November 6, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory was at a historically high level [3]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely to Rise**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [5]. - **Likely to Fall**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year. The industry output is at a historically high level. The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash [6]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Quotes - Futures: The main contract SA2601 closed at 1,210 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous week [8]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week [8]. - Basis: The main basis remained unchanged at - 55 yuan/ton [8]. 3.5 Fundamental - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process was - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that of East China's co - production process was - 212 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - Operating Rate and Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.67%, and the weekly output was 746,800 tons, including 414,800 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level [20][22]. - Production Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there were continuous new production capacity projects in the soda ash industry, with a total planned new capacity of 1.57 million tons, and 100,000 tons were actually commissioned in 2025 [25]. 3.6 Fundamental - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 98.36% [28]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,100 tons, and the operating rate was 75.92% [31]. 3.7 Fundamental - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [38]. 3.8 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The document provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. The price of nickel ore remained firm, the rainy season in the Philippines was approaching, the tender price was firm, and the ocean freight was stable. The price of nickel iron continued to decline, and the cost line loosened and moved down. The inventory of stainless steel increased slightly, and the de - stocking after the "Golden September and Silver October" was tested again. There was new production capacity of primary nickel put into operation, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of production cut. The short - term output might decline, but the supply was still strong in the medium and long term, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased, but the overall boost was limited. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly and test the cost support downward. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. The price of nickel ore remained firm, the rainy season in the Philippines was approaching, the tender price was firm, and the ocean freight was stable. The price of nickel iron continued to decline, and the cost line loosened and moved down. The inventory of stainless steel increased slightly, and the de - stocking after the "Golden September and Silver October" was tested again. There was new production capacity of primary nickel put into operation, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of production cut. The short - term output might decline, but the supply was still strong in the medium and long term, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased, but the overall boost was limited. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly and test the cost support downward. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% remained at 56, and the price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained at 50, with a 0.00% change [13]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 28400 to 28200, a decrease of 0.70%. The price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained at 29700, with a 0.00% change [13]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron (Shandong) remained at 3400, with a 0.00% change. The price of high - nickel iron (Shandong) decreased from 935 to 925, a decrease of 1.07% [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 123350 to 122360, a decrease of 0.80%. The price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 121450 to 120100, a decrease of 1.11%. The price of Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from 123100 to 123300, an increase of 0.16% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 13712.5 to 13550, a decrease of 1.19% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - The price of nickel ore remained stable, and the ocean freight was the same as last week. - As of October 30, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.791 million wet tons, a decrease of 188,100 wet tons or 1.26% from the previous period. Among them, the nickel ore from the Philippines was 14.3054 million wet tons, a decrease of 199,200 wet tons or 1.37%. The nickel ore from other countries was 485,600 wet tons, an increase of 11,100 wet tons or 2.44%. - In September 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a decrease of 232,200 tons or 3.66% from the previous month, and an increase of 1.5483 million tons or 33.91% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the total nickel ore import volume was 32.2481 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.77% [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - The nickel price fluctuated weakly, and the transaction improved. There was new production capacity put into operation at home and abroad, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of planned production cut. The long - term surplus contradiction was more prominent. - In October 2025, China's refined nickel output was 33,345 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38% and a year - on - year increase of 8.09%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative refined nickel output was 353,335 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 32.70%. - In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4181 tons or 17.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 22,779 tons or 407.65%. The net import of refined nickel this month was 14,255.276 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 207.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.65%. - The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained the same as last week [22][25][33]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - The price of nickel iron declined. The price of low - nickel iron remained flat, and the price of high - nickel iron decreased. - In September 2025, China's actual nickel pig iron production in terms of metal was 21,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64%. - In September 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 1.085 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 211,000 tons or 24.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 348,000 tons or 47.2%. - In September, the nickel iron inventory was 202,900 physical tons available for circulation, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [43][47][50]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased. The average price of 304 stainless steel in four places decreased by 162.5 yuan/ton compared with last week. - In September, the stainless steel crude steel output was 3.4267 million tons, of which the output of 200 - series was 1.039 million tons, the output of 400 - series was 525,000 tons, and the output of 300 - series was 1.7627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. - The latest data showed that the stainless steel import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. - As of November 7, the inventory in Wuxi was 599,000 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 310,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.034 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2900 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 639,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,400 tons [58][63][66]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% respectively. - In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The installed capacity of power batteries in China was 76.0 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 13.8 GWh, accounting for 18.2% of the total installed capacity, a month - on - month increase of 26.5% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 62.2 GWh, accounting for 81.8% of the total installed capacity, a month - on - month increase of 20.5% and a year - on - year increase of 50.4% [74][77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price began to be under downward pressure, breaking below the 120,000 level. The position increased, indicating that the main short - sellers were exerting force and were relatively bearish on the future. The MACD indicator also showed green bars spreading, indicating a downward trend. The KDJ entered the oversold area and might have a rebound demand. Overall, it will fluctuate weakly [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Sorting and Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral. The quotation remained stable, the ocean freight was the same, and the rainy season was approaching [83]. - **Nickel Iron**: Neutral. The price of nickel iron decreased steadily, and the cost line decreased to a certain extent [83]. - **Refined Nickel**: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad [83]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. The inventory increased slightly, and the 300 - series decreased slightly [83]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. The production data was good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased year - on - year [83].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（11.3-11.7） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万 吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：9月纺织品服装出口244.2亿美元，同比 下降1.4%。9月份我国棉花进口10万吨，同比减少18.7%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加18.18%。 农村部10月25/26年度：产量636万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存822万吨。 目前新棉逐步上市，产量可能比之前预估有所减少。对美出口关税比前期降低10%。期货主力 01短期13500附近有支撑，预计延续震荡偏多思路。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. There were still global uncertainties. Force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the sharp rise of precious metals stimulated the increase of copper prices. Domestically, it was the off - season for consumption, and the downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was normal, mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,900 tons, slightly increasing last week, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons compared with last week [4]. - In terms of supply - demand balance, it was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical and tariff factors affected prices. Force majeure in Indonesian mines and the rise of precious metals stimulated price increases. Domestically, it was the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory slightly increased, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: No specific content provided [10]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, it was in a tight balance, and in 2025, it would be in surplus. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table showed the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee was at a low level [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content provided [27]. - **Import Profit**: No specific content provided [30]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Report's Core View - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated. The main contract rose 1.53%, closing at 21,625 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the carbon neutrality goal, long - term capacity control, weak demand due to domestic real - estate suppression, cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and the US tariff increase on steel and aluminum all have a negative impact on domestic aluminum prices. The domestic demand has entered the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. Last week, LME inventory was 549,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 239 tons to 113,335 tons [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated. The main contract rose 1.53%, closing at 21,625 yuan/ton on Friday. The domestic demand has entered the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. Last week, LME inventory was 549,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 239 tons to 113,335 tons [3] 2. Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 2.1 Supply - Demand Balance Table - The supply - demand balance table of aluminum in China shows that from 2018 - 2024, there were supply shortages in 2018 (- 476,000 tons), 2019 (- 686,100 tons), 2021 (- 142,000 tons), 2022 (- 299,800 tons), and 2023 (- 43,000 tons), and a supply surplus in 2020 (13,000 tons) and 2024 (150,000 tons) [10] 2.2 Other Aspects in Fundamentals - The report also mentions aluminum, bauxite, alumina, and aluminum rods, but specific content is not elaborated in detail [6] 3. Market Structure 3.1 Futures - Spot Price Difference - No specific content provided [24][25] 3.2 Import Profit - No specific content provided [24][28]