1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract of asphalt showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 3,253 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 3,048 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 6.30%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will decrease, and the cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt is 1.312 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the domestic asphalt sample capacity utilization rate was 31.8792%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.44 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 308,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.79%. The sample enterprise output was 532,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 745,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22.53%. Refineries reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected that supply pressure will continue to ease next week [5]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29.7%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 10.4226%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.61 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, a month-on-month increase of 1.00 percentage point, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month-on-month increase of 4.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 576.02 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4.10%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 799.3871 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 34.46%. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that short - term support will strengthen [6]. - **Inventory Side**: Social inventory was 897,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.26%. Factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.42%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20.00%. Social, factory, and port inventories are all decreasing [6]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base - Spread Trend**: The report presents the base - spread trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [10][12]. - **Spread Analysis** - **主力合约价差**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [14][15]. - **沥青原油价格走势**: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [18]. - **原油裂解价差**: The report shows the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent), but no specific data analysis is provided [21][22]. - **沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势**: The report shows the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [26]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **各地区市场价走势**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [28]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **沥青利润**: The report shows the profit trend of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [30]. - **焦化沥青利润价差走势**: The report shows the profit - spread trend between coking and asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [33][34]. - **Supply Side** - **出货量**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [36]. - **稀释沥青港口库存**: The report shows the port inventory of diluted asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [38]. - **产量**: The report shows the weekly and monthly output of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [41]. - **马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势**: The report shows the price trend of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [46]. - **地炼沥青产量**: The report shows the output of refinery asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [49]. - **开工率**: The report shows the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [51]. - **检修损失量预估**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [54]. - **Inventory** - **交易所仓单**: The report shows the exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt, including total, social, and factory warehouses, but no specific data analysis is provided [57][59]. - **社会库存和厂内库存**: The report shows the social and factory inventories of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [62]. - **厂内库存存货比**: The report shows the inventory - to - stock ratio of factory inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided [65]. - **进出口情况**: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt, as well as the import price - spread trend of South Korean asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [68][71] - **Demand Side** - **石油焦产量**: The report shows the output of petroleum coke, but no specific data analysis is provided [74]. - **表观消费量**: The report shows the apparent consumption of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [77]. - **下游需求**: The report shows the downstream demand trends of asphalt, including highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion, but no specific data analysis is provided [80][81]. - **下游机械需求走势**: The report shows the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working - hour trends of excavators, but no specific data analysis is provided [85][87]. - **沥青开工率** - **重交沥青开工率**: The report shows the开工率 trend of heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [89]. - **按用途分沥青开工率**: The report shows the开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt by usage, but no specific data analysis is provided [92]. - **下游开工情况**: The report shows the开工 rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [95][97]. - **供需平衡表**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, showing data such as monthly downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output from January 2024 to November 2025 [100]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected to experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [105].

Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and fuel oil prices also mainly rose first and then fell. Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets were dragged down by sufficient supply, with weak overall trends. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2677 yuan/ton, down 2.48% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3255 yuan/ton, down 0.40% for the week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market still faces the dilemma of sufficient immediate supply and sluggish downstream bunker fuel activities, but the current East - West arbitrage economy is basically unfeasible, which may help reduce arbitrage cargoes from Europe in December and relieve the current oversupply situation. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported by stable downstream bunker fuel demand, but competitive quotes for shipments in the second half of November have suppressed spot spreads. International crude oil prices may fluctuate slightly lower, and fuel oil prices are expected to continue to decline weakly. Operationally, high - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the 2600 - 2800 range in the short term, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3200 - 3350 range in the short term [5] Group 2: Periodic and Spot Price Summary - Futures Price: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2790, and the current value is 2744, a decrease of 46 or 1.66%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3253, and the current value is 3290, an increase of 37 or 1.12% [6] - Spot Price: The previous value of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 465.00, and the current value is 469.00, an increase of 4.00 or 0.86%. The previous value of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 477.00, and the current value is 478.00, an increase of 1.00 or 0.21%. The previous value of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was 364.42, and the current value is 363.42, a decrease of 1.00 or - 0.27%. The previous value of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was 452.50, and the current value is 449.50, a decrease of 3.00 or - 0.66%. The previous value of Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil was 333.59, and the current value is 334.02, an increase of 0.43 or 0.13%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 675.32, and the current value is 677.96, an increase of 2.65 or 0.39% [7] Group 3: Fundamental Data Summary - Consumption Data: There are charts showing Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins from 2021 - 2025, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [8][9][10] Group 4: Inventory Data Summary - Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory: On November 5, the inventory was 2106.9 million barrels, an increase of 14 million barrels. There are also inventory data from August 20 to October 29, showing fluctuations in inventory [11] - Inventory Trends: There are descriptions of Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [12][13] Group 5: Spread Data Summary - High - and Low - Sulfur Futures Spread: There is a chart showing the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical summaries are not provided [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. As it is approaching delivery and the spot price at the beginning of the listing is relatively high, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. - In the short term, the external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the white sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global white sugar production, the expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. The 01 contract is approaching delivery, and due to the relatively high spot price at the beginning of the listing, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose [8]. - Negative factors: Increase in global white sugar production, expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. - Short - term situation: The external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Forecasts from different institutions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX expected a global sugar supply surplus of 277,000 tons; ISO expected a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous estimate [5]. - Domestic sugar production and sales data: By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season nationwide was 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales nationwide were 1,000 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - 25/26 global sugar supply and demand forecasts from multiple institutions: Different institutions have different views on the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation, with some predicting a surplus and some predicting a narrowing gap [5][37]. - China's sugar supply and demand balance sheet: It includes data on sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges for different seasons [39]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Report Title - Manganese Silicon Weekly Report (11.3 - 11.7) [1] Core Viewpoints - From the cost side, the third round of coke price hikes has been implemented and prices are stable after the increase, while the manganese ore market is showing a strong trend, making the cost side of silicon manganese relatively firm. In the northern region, after the second round of coke price hikes in late October, freight rates in the main production areas of Inner Mongolia have increased. In Ningxia, due to the decline in electricity prices last month, the overall cost gap with the main production areas in Inner Mongolia has decreased. [2] - From the supply side, in early November, the silicon manganese market continued the weak and volatile trend of October. In November, the wait - and - see sentiment in both the north and south regions is still strong. In the northern region, there are planned new silicon manganese production capacities, but the specific ignition time depends on the market situation. Currently, northern enterprises mainly focus on fulfilling steel procurement orders and futures warehouse receipts, with a low willingness to quote for retail. In the southern region, the dry season has officially begun, and the electricity price in Yunnan has increased significantly, leading to production cuts in alloy plants. [2] - From the demand side, steel mills will conduct concentrated maintenance in mid - to - late November, with an estimated reduction in production, which may reduce the demand for silicon manganese alloy. Overall, the current silicon manganese market shows a weak and volatile pattern, and the most important factor to watch in November is the impact of steel mill production cuts on the demand for silicon manganese alloy. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term. [2] Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: The document presents the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon manganese enterprises [6][7] - **Annual Production**: It shows the annual production of silicon manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and the whole of China [8][9] - **Weekly, Monthly Production and Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon manganese and the weekly operating rate of Chinese silicon manganese enterprises are presented [10][11] - **Regional Production**: It includes the monthly production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as the daily average production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13] Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Procurement Price**: The monthly procurement prices of silicon manganese 6517 by various steel enterprises such as Baosteel, Baowu Egang, and others are shown [15][16] - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: The weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 Chinese steel enterprises are presented [17][18] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - The monthly import and export volumes of Chinese silicon manganese iron are presented [19][20] Manganese Silicon Inventory - The weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China, and the monthly average available inventory days in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are presented [21][22] Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: The monthly import volumes of manganese ore from different sources and trade methods are presented [23][24] - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: The weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, as well as the weekly average available inventory days in China are presented [25][26] - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: The weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore from different origins in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port is presented [27][28] - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: The daily price of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port is presented [29] - **Regional Cost**: The daily cost of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi is presented [30][31] Manganese Silicon Profit - The daily profit of silicon manganese in the northern region, southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi is presented [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The preliminary agreement in the China-US trade negotiation has a short - term positive impact on US soybeans, but the subsequent negotiation and weather in the US soybean - growing areas remain uncertain. US soybeans are expected to fluctuate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal markets will also be affected by factors such as US soybean prices, import volumes, and downstream demand [13][34]. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain a short - term range - bound pattern. The short - term demand is in the off - season, and the spot price discount restricts the upward space of the futures price. The market is waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported soybeans [10]. - The price of domestic soybeans is affected by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic demand, and the expected increase in domestic production. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the market focusing on the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas and the follow - up of the China - US trade agreement [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Prompt There is no specific content provided for the weekly prompt in the given text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is waiting for the harvest situation and the planting weather in South America, as well as the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from its high in November. The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills remained high in November. After the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, the arrival of imported soybeans at the end of the year is expected to increase, but the demand for soybean meal is in the off - season [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. However, the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is positive for US soybeans, and the cost of imported soybeans is expected to rise at the end of the year, so soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas remains uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean futures price; the expected increase in domestic demand for soybeans supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Short factors**: After the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, China has started to purchase US soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The short - term weather in some US soybean - growing areas is normal, with a neutral impact. In the next week, the weather in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Import cost**: US soybeans are fluctuating strongly. With the preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation, the import cost is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a neutral or bullish impact [9]. - **Oil mill crushing**: The demand for soybean meal has weakened in the short term, and the crushing volume of oil mills has declined from its high. The demand is expected to remain weak in the short term, and the operating rate of oil mills is expected to remain low, with a bullish impact [9]. - **Trading volume**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stocking has weakened, and the market trading volume is expected to be low, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Oil mill inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from its high. As the upstream operating rate has dropped to a low level, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, with a bullish impact [9]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, indicating a bearish signal [10]. - For soybeans, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, indicating a bearish signal [11]. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance of global soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months It presents data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from March to September 2025 [22]. US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress It details the progress of US soybean planting, growth, and harvest in 2024 and 2025, including sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting rates, as well as the comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [23][24][25][29]. Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress It shows the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/25 and 2025/26, as well as the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 [26][28][30]. Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The table shows the supply - demand balance of domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [36]. Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported soybean arrival**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from its high in November, with an overall year - on - year increase [37]. - **Oil mill crushing and inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills has declined from its high, while the soybean meal inventory has increased to a high level. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills has declined from its high, and the soybean meal production in September increased year - on - year [38][39]. - **Soybean meal trading**: The orders of domestic downstream buyers have decreased slightly, and the pick - up volume has declined from its high [45]. - **Pig farming inventory**: The pig inventory has continued to rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has declined slightly month - on - month. The pig price has stopped falling and rebounded recently, while the piglet price remains weak [47][49]. 7. Meal Market Structure - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal basis analysis**: The soybean meal futures price has risen and then fallen, while the spot price has remained relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot discount [58]. - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal price difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has also fluctuated slightly [60]. 8. Technical Analysis Soybean Technical Analysis The soybean futures price has risen and then fallen, affected by the price of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a high - level oscillation state, indicating that the soybean futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, waiting for new market guidance [66]. Soybean Meal Technical Analysis The soybean meal futures price has risen and then fallen, affected by the rise in US soybean prices, the China - US trade negotiation agreement, and the short - term weakening of domestic demand. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the soybean meal futures are in a short - term technical adjustment stage, and the market is waiting for new guidance from the US and domestic markets [69]. 9. Next Week's Focus Points - **Most important**: The harvest weather in the US soybean - growing areas, the follow - up implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - **Second most important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and the downstream procurement situation [74]. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market is under bearish influence due to uncertainties in US trade negotiations, which put pressure on the global economy, and the current off - season for oil consumption. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The recommended short - term trading range is between 445 and 470, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [8]. - There may be a significant oversupply situation in the oil market in early 2026, and if there are no supply disruptions caused by sanctions, the oil market is likely to face an oversupply next year [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated slightly lower. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $59.84 per barrel, down 1.71% for the week; ICE Brent crude futures closed at $63.70 per barrel, down 1.36% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 459.6 yuan per barrel, up 0.20% for the week [5]. - OPEC+ continued to increase production by 138,000 barrels per day until December but suspended the planned production increase in the first quarter of next year, which alleviated market concerns about a rapid increase in supply to some extent. OPEC's crude oil production increased in October, but the growth rate slowed significantly compared to September and summer [5]. - API and EIA crude oil inventory data showed a build - up, which pressured oil prices. The US government shutdown, internal policy differences within the Fed, and the strengthening of the US dollar also affected oil prices [5]. - In the week ending November 4, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 19,336 contracts to 152,231 contracts. As of the week ending September 23, speculators' net long positions in WTI crude oil increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [5]. - Trump said he was open to talking about lifting sanctions on Iran, but Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei remained tough. The main obstacle in the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West is the uranium enrichment issue in Iran [6]. 3.2 Related News - Market expectations for the Trump administration to win the IEEPA tariff case have cooled significantly. If the court overturns the "reciprocal tariffs" based on IEEPA, it may trigger a trading boom, but the market boost may be short - lived [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Due to uncertainties in US trade negotiations and the off - season for oil consumption, the oil market is bearish. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asian customers by $1.20 per barrel in December. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 445 - 470, and long - term investors should wait and see [8]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties decreased last week. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd dropped from $65.55 to $64.80, a decline of 1.15% [10]. - **Inventory data**: - **Cushing inventory**: Fluctuated from August 15 to October 31, with an increase of 419,000 barrels on August 15 and a decrease of 838,000 barrels on August 22 [12]. - **EIA inventory**: Also fluctuated during the period from August 29 to October 31, with an increase of 2.415 million barrels on August 29 and a decrease of 9.285 million barrels on September 12 [13]. 3.5持仓数据 - **CFTC fund net long positions**: Fluctuated from August 12 to September 23. For example, on August 12, the net long position was 116,742 contracts, a decrease of 25,087 contracts compared to the previous period [20]. - **ICE fund net long positions**: Fluctuated from September 2 to November 4. For example, on September 2, the net long position was 251,054 contracts, an increase of 44,511 contracts compared to the previous period. As of November 4, it decreased by 19,336 contracts to 152,231 contracts [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 4,696 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,611 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.81%. It is expected that the demand may remain sluggish next week. Meanwhile, the number of planned maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly. The market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.70%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 80.75%, a month-on-month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 345,350 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.89%, while the production of ethylene enterprises was 146,770 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.63%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production [5]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 37.61%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 39.4%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 71.79%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 78.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.370 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [5]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was -769.4 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase in losses of 0.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was -465.05 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease in losses of 14.00%, lower than the historical average. The double-ton spread was 2,239.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 334,596 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,396 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.78%. Ethylene factory inventory was 84,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.63%. Social inventory was 545,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.20%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.5 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.65%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. The report provides charts of price trends, trading volume, and open interest, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents charts of basis trends and spreads between different contracts, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is provided [10][16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method**: The report provides historical data charts of prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi-coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [19][22][24][26][29]. - **Supply and Demand Trends**: The report provides historical data charts of supply and demand indicators such as production, operating rates, trade volumes, pre-sales volumes, production and sales ratios, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [31][33][36][37][40]. - **Inventory**: The report provides historical data charts of inventory indicators such as exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [48]. - **Ethylene Method**: The report provides historical data charts of import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volumes, and price spreads in the ethylene method, but no specific numerical analysis of these data is given [50]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly supply and demand balance sheet for PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including data on exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports [53]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. Based on the price chart and moving average indicators, it is expected that the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [57][58].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Last week, the glass futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract FG2601 closing at 1091 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous week. The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1052 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous week. The glass fundamentals show stable supply and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly View - Futures: The main contract FG2601 of glass futures closed at 1091 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous week [3]. - Spot: The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1052 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous week [3]. - Supply: The "coal - to - gas" project in Shahe led to the shutdown of 4 coal - fired production lines, and the national float glass production line in operation was 222, with an operating rate of 75.92% and a daily melting volume of 159,100 tons, showing a low - level rebound [3]. - Demand: The recovery of the terminal real estate is weak. Processors may continue to operate difficultly under the dual pressures of weak orders and tight funds. As of November 6, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, down 4.03% from the previous week, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period [3]. Influence Factor Summary - Bullish factors: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy and environmental protection policy, the production capacity of the float glass industry has been cleared, and there has been a loss in production due to the "coal - to - gas" project and cold repair in the Shahe area [4]. - Bearish factors: The supply of glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate weakly at a low level [4]. Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market | Week | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Spot Benchmark Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1083 | 1048 | - 35 | | Current Value | 1091 | 1052 | - 39 | | Change Rate | 0.74% | 0.38% | 11.43% | [6] Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1052 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous week [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit No specific content about cost and profit analysis is provided in the report. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 222, with an operating rate of 75.92%, and the glass production line operation number is at a low level in the same period [22]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a low level in the same period [24]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [28]. - Other aspects such as housing sales, new construction, construction, completion area, and downstream processor operation and order conditions are mentioned but lack specific data analysis in this summary [29][31][38]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, down 4.03% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.22% lower than the previous week at 1,210 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week. The supply had minor fluctuations due to equipment issues in some enterprises, and the overall supply was abundant with the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II by the end of the year. The downstream demand was average, and the inventory was at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remained weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View - Futures: The main contract SA2601 of soda ash futures closed at 1,210 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous week [3]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week [3]. - Supply: There were short - term reductions due to equipment problems in some enterprises, but the overall output had minor adjustments. The expected output next week was 740,000 tons, and the operating rate was 85%. Yuangxing Energy's Phase II was expected to be commissioned by the end of the year, with abundant overall supply [3]. - Demand: The downstream demand was general, and the funds were under pressure. The daily melting volume of float glass was 159,100 tons, a decrease of 2,140 tons from the previous week; the daily output of photovoltaic glass was 88,100 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons [3]. - Inventory: As of November 6, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory was at a historically high level [3]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely to Rise**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [5]. - **Likely to Fall**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year. The industry output is at a historically high level. The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash [6]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Quotes - Futures: The main contract SA2601 closed at 1,210 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous week [8]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week [8]. - Basis: The main basis remained unchanged at - 55 yuan/ton [8]. 3.5 Fundamental - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process was - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that of East China's co - production process was - 212 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - Operating Rate and Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.67%, and the weekly output was 746,800 tons, including 414,800 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level [20][22]. - Production Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there were continuous new production capacity projects in the soda ash industry, with a total planned new capacity of 1.57 million tons, and 100,000 tons were actually commissioned in 2025 [25]. 3.6 Fundamental - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 98.36% [28]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,100 tons, and the operating rate was 75.92% [31]. 3.7 Fundamental - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [38]. 3.8 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The document provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. The price of nickel ore remained firm, the rainy season in the Philippines was approaching, the tender price was firm, and the ocean freight was stable. The price of nickel iron continued to decline, and the cost line loosened and moved down. The inventory of stainless steel increased slightly, and the de - stocking after the "Golden September and Silver October" was tested again. There was new production capacity of primary nickel put into operation, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of production cut. The short - term output might decline, but the supply was still strong in the medium and long term, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased, but the overall boost was limited. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly and test the cost support downward. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. The price of nickel ore remained firm, the rainy season in the Philippines was approaching, the tender price was firm, and the ocean freight was stable. The price of nickel iron continued to decline, and the cost line loosened and moved down. The inventory of stainless steel increased slightly, and the de - stocking after the "Golden September and Silver October" was tested again. There was new production capacity of primary nickel put into operation, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of production cut. The short - term output might decline, but the supply was still strong in the medium and long term, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased, but the overall boost was limited. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly and test the cost support downward. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% remained at 56, and the price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained at 50, with a 0.00% change [13]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 28400 to 28200, a decrease of 0.70%. The price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained at 29700, with a 0.00% change [13]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron (Shandong) remained at 3400, with a 0.00% change. The price of high - nickel iron (Shandong) decreased from 935 to 925, a decrease of 1.07% [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 123350 to 122360, a decrease of 0.80%. The price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 121450 to 120100, a decrease of 1.11%. The price of Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from 123100 to 123300, an increase of 0.16% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 13712.5 to 13550, a decrease of 1.19% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - The price of nickel ore remained stable, and the ocean freight was the same as last week. - As of October 30, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.791 million wet tons, a decrease of 188,100 wet tons or 1.26% from the previous period. Among them, the nickel ore from the Philippines was 14.3054 million wet tons, a decrease of 199,200 wet tons or 1.37%. The nickel ore from other countries was 485,600 wet tons, an increase of 11,100 wet tons or 2.44%. - In September 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a decrease of 232,200 tons or 3.66% from the previous month, and an increase of 1.5483 million tons or 33.91% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the total nickel ore import volume was 32.2481 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.77% [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - The nickel price fluctuated weakly, and the transaction improved. There was new production capacity put into operation at home and abroad, and at the same time, there was a certain amount of planned production cut. The long - term surplus contradiction was more prominent. - In October 2025, China's refined nickel output was 33,345 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38% and a year - on - year increase of 8.09%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative refined nickel output was 353,335 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 32.70%. - In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4181 tons or 17.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 22,779 tons or 407.65%. The net import of refined nickel this month was 14,255.276 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 207.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.65%. - The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained the same as last week [22][25][33]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - The price of nickel iron declined. The price of low - nickel iron remained flat, and the price of high - nickel iron decreased. - In September 2025, China's actual nickel pig iron production in terms of metal was 21,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64%. - In September 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 1.085 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 211,000 tons or 24.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 348,000 tons or 47.2%. - In September, the nickel iron inventory was 202,900 physical tons available for circulation, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [43][47][50]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased. The average price of 304 stainless steel in four places decreased by 162.5 yuan/ton compared with last week. - In September, the stainless steel crude steel output was 3.4267 million tons, of which the output of 200 - series was 1.039 million tons, the output of 400 - series was 525,000 tons, and the output of 300 - series was 1.7627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. - The latest data showed that the stainless steel import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. - As of November 7, the inventory in Wuxi was 599,000 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 310,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.034 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2900 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 639,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,400 tons [58][63][66]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% respectively. - In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The installed capacity of power batteries in China was 76.0 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 13.8 GWh, accounting for 18.2% of the total installed capacity, a month - on - month increase of 26.5% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 62.2 GWh, accounting for 81.8% of the total installed capacity, a month - on - month increase of 20.5% and a year - on - year increase of 50.4% [74][77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price began to be under downward pressure, breaking below the 120,000 level. The position increased, indicating that the main short - sellers were exerting force and were relatively bearish on the future. The MACD indicator also showed green bars spreading, indicating a downward trend. The KDJ entered the oversold area and might have a rebound demand. Overall, it will fluctuate weakly [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Sorting and Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral. The quotation remained stable, the ocean freight was the same, and the rainy season was approaching [83]. - **Nickel Iron**: Neutral. The price of nickel iron decreased steadily, and the cost line decreased to a certain extent [83]. - **Refined Nickel**: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and the inventory continued to accumulate at home and abroad [83]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. The inventory increased slightly, and the 300 - series decreased slightly [83]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. The production data was good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased year - on - year [83].