Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, causing gold prices to fluctuate. The Shanghai - gold premium continued to widen to 1.47 yuan/gram. Attention should be paid to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting, as the interest - rate cut expectation is volatile, leading to gold price fluctuations [4]. - **Silver**: The release of details of the US - EU trade agreement led to a rebound in silver prices after a decline. PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, but the impact on silver prices was limited. The Shanghai - silver premium remained at around 400 yuan/kg. As the market awaited the central bank annual meeting and risk appetite recovered, silver prices fluctuated [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield up 2.92 basis points to 4.316%), the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.65, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis was - 3.42 (spot at a discount to futures), inventory increased by 60 kg to 36642 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 29 (spot at a discount to futures), Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 25144 kg to 1115055 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's July CPI; 14:00 Germany's Q2 GDP final value; Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (until August 23); 20:30 Canada's June retail sales; 21:00 Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins on Bloomberg TV; 22:00 Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting; 23:30 Cleveland Fed President Hammack on CNBC; Saturday: South Korean President Lee Jae - myung's visit to Japan and the ROK - Japan summit; Sunday 00:25 ECB President Lagarde and BOE Governor Bailey at a panel discussion [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logical drivers include the global turmoil after Trump's inauguration, the shift from inflation to recession expectations, and the continued verification of the new US government's policies, making gold prices still likely to rise [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1.43% to 609,750, the short - position volume decreased by 2.35% to 457,223, and the net position increased by 1.45% to 152,527 [31]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.50% to 1,052,297, the short - position volume decreased by 1.44% to 959,065, and the net position decreased by 2.15% to 93,232 [33]. - **ETF**: Gold ETF holdings continued to decline, and silver ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level; Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and were higher than last year, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [40][41][43].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年7月PVC产量为200.461万吨，环比增加0.67%；本周样本企业产能 利用率为80.33%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.1725万吨，环比增加1.67%,乙烯法企 业产量13.941万吨，环比减少0.28%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产增 加幅度可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.75%，环比减少0.10个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为36.91%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为32.96%，环比增加.869个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Bean Meal**: US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding, with the rise of oils and fats and technical consolidation. Domestic bean meal is oscillating and falling back, affected by profit - taking and technical factors. In the short term, it may enter an oscillating and bullish pattern, with the M2601 contract oscillating in the range of 3080 - 3140 [8]. - **Soybeans**: US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding, while domestic soybeans are oscillating and falling back. Affected by factors such as increased expected imports and new - season domestic soybean production, the short - term trend is neutral, with the A2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3960 - 4060 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No specific content provided for daily hints. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating and rebounding under the influence of relatively positive USDA report data. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, import arrivals, and China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive USDA report data in August and the rise of rapeseed meal, domestic bean meal is in a short - term oscillating and bullish pattern [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations of pig restocking. The recent increase in bean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, bean meal returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, bean meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal** - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased Chinese procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: The report provides the transaction average price, trading volume, and price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal from August 12th to August 21st [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: The report lists the futures prices of soybeans (bean one, bean two) and bean meal (near - month, main contract), as well as the spot prices of soybeans and bean meal from August 13th to August 21st [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: The report shows the warehouse receipt data of bean one, bean two, and bean meal from August 11th to August 21st [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global soybean supply - demand balance sheet covers the period from 2015 to 2024, and the domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet covers the same period, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25), the United States (2024), and Brazil (2024/25) [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The report presents the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from February to August 2025, including data on harvest area, yield, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in August is high but declining, with an overall year - on - year increase. The report provides monthly arrival volume data from 2020 to 2025 [44]. 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main long positions in bean meal are decreasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions in soybeans are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by the news of Australian seed imports and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it is in a moderately strong oscillating pattern [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short term, and the low inventory supports the price. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in China - Canada trade consultations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2540 - 2600 range. The market is affected by the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the news of Australian seed imports. The short - term outlook is moderately strong oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% is imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and additional import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand balance sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26] - **Price and trading volume**: Data on the average trading price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from August 12 - 21 are provided, as well as the price comparison between rapeseed meal futures and spot [13][15]. - **Warehouse receipts**: The number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from August 12 - 21 is provided, showing a decreasing trend [17]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-22甲醇早报 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：内地方面，宏观面引发业者悲观情绪，需求端暂无进一步利好提升下，长协贸易商出货意愿明显增加。与 此同时，内地尤其是产区甲醇企业库存偏紧对价格有一定托底作用，预计本周内地行情震荡偏弱整理。港口方面，近期 双焦的大幅波动对甲醇期现货市场负反馈展现，支撑市场的利好因素反转，同时港口库存延续累库预期叠加主力下游需 求缺位，预计本周港口市场或维持震荡行情，观望政策端口及消息层面的的良性引导；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2335元/吨，01合约基差-90，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：截至2025年8月21日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库存总量为93.42万吨，较上周期累库4.31万吨；沿海地区（江 苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇整体可流通货源增加3.57万吨至60.69万吨；中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：预计本周甲醇价格震荡为主。MA2601：2370-2450震荡运行。 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,138 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,640 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.51%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,296 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45%. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 80,393 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.34%, with a production profit of 3,613 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica was 84,868 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 2,995 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has strong motivation [8] - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 141,543 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters was 46,846 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.73%; the downstream inventory was 51,507 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.68%; other inventory was 43,190 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.46% [8] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish trend. It is predicted that the production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 will be 84,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%, and the import volume will be 18,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.62%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, lower than the historical average, and the demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 80,940 - 84,580 yuan/ton [8] - **Basis**: On August 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,440 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium, showing a bullish trend [8] - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force decreased, showing a bearish trend [8] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market**: The daily opening rate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The monthly import volume was 13,845.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.77%. The monthly net import volume was 17,267.97 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.22%. The supply - demand balance was - 1090 tons, a significant change from the previous month [17] - **Lithium Hydroxide Market**: The monthly production was 25,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94%. The monthly net export volume was 4,777.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. The supply - demand balance was - 3149 tons, a change from the previous month [17] - **Downstream Market**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 72,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.71%. The monthly production of ternary materials was 25,130 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. The monthly power battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.95% [17] 3.3 Lithium Ore Supply - **Price and Production**: The price of spodumene and lithium mica has shown certain fluctuations. The production of domestic lithium mines has also changed over time. For example, the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has different trends in different years [23] - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed. The inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has shown different trends in different years [23] 3.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly opening rate and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium carbonate has also changed over time [28] - **Import and Supply - Demand Balance**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has shown different situations in different months [33] 3.5 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium hydroxide has also changed over time [36] - **Export and Supply - Demand Balance**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has shown different situations in different months [39] 3.6 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in different links (smelters, downstream, and others) have different trends [49] - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in different links (smelters and downstream) has changed [49] 3.7 Demand - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have different trends. The inventory of lithium battery cells and the winning bid of energy storage projects have also changed [53][55] - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have different trends [58][61] - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, opening rate, production, import and export volume, and inventory of ternary materials have different trends [64][66] - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Lithium Iron Demand**: The price, cost, profit, capacity, opening rate, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid lithium iron have different trends [68][71] - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles have different trends [76][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased slightly. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8450 - 8820 yuan/ton [6]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply side production scheduling has increased, and it is expected to回调 in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery. The cost support has weakened. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50095 - 52965 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.57% [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.56%. The demand has increased [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.36%. The sample enterprise inventory was 171,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%. The main port inventory was 117,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - Basis: On August 21, the basis of the 11 - contract was 415 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main contract decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The estimated production scheduling for August is 130,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.76% compared with the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 12.29GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%. The inventory was 174,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.07%. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.89%, at a historically high level [11]. - Basis: On August 21, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2530 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The net long position of the main contract decreased [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of multiple contracts increased, such as the 01 - contract increasing by 2.58%, and the 02 - contract increasing by 2.82% [17]. - Spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, such as the spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon remaining at 9050 yuan/ton [17]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.37%, and the sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.65% [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts decreased, such as the 06 - contract decreasing by 0.72% [19]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some prices remaining unchanged and some having small increases or decreases [19]. - Inventory: The total weekly inventory increased by 2.89% [19]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - Production: The daily DMC production was 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The daily capacity utilization rate was 75.05%, remaining unchanged [17]. - Price: The daily DMC price was 11,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The daily profit was 392 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [17]. - Inventory: The monthly DMC inventory was 54,300 tons, a significant decrease compared with the previous period [17]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots was 111,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.28%. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63% [17]. - Price: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% [17]. - Inventory: The weekly aluminum alloy ingot social inventory was 49,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.07% [18]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon (Downstream) - Silicon Wafers: The weekly production was 12.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 5.74%. The weekly inventory was 26.5GW, a month - on - month decrease of 22.06% [19]. - Battery Cells: The weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.81GW, a month - on - month increase of 16.67%. The monthly output was 58.19GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% [19]. - Components: The monthly output was 47.1GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.73%. The domestic inventory decreased by 51.73%, and the European inventory decreased by 2.30% [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil stabilized, oscillated, and rebounded. The US imposed sanctions on a batch of Iranian - related enterprises, increasing geopolitical concerns. The Russia - Ukraine negotiation still takes time, and the uncertainties during this period drive up oil prices. - Some Fed governors' speeches reduce the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The market continues to focus on Powell's speech. Goldman Sachs believes Powell's speech on Friday won't clearly indicate a September rate cut but may convey support for it. - After technical repair, oil prices still face significant fluctuations. Short - term, it is expected to run with high - volatility oscillations, operating in the range of 488 - 498. Long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Some Fed presidents are lukewarm about the possibility of a rate cut next month. The US may double tariffs on India. Angola's July oil production fell below 1 million barrels per day for the first time in two and a half years [3]. - **Basis**: On August 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.78 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.38 per barrel. The basis was 33.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels. Cushing's inventory increased by 419,000 barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.767 million barrels as of August 21 [3]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of August 12, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the long positions decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term, it will operate in the 488 - 498 range. Long - term, hold long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Three Fed officials cooled the expectation of a rate cut next month. The market is waiting for Powell's speech. Currently, the interest - rate futures price implies a 70.4% probability of a September rate cut and about a 47 - basis - point rate cut for the year [5]. - Putin requires Ukraine to abandon the entire Donbass region, give up the ambition to join NATO, remain neutral, and ban Western troops from entering the country. The Russia - US summit mainly discussed the compromise plan for the Ukraine issue [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US imposed secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period was extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is a possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts decrease, and trade tariff risks increase. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil increased by 0.83, 0.81, 4.70, and 0.98 respectively, with increases of 1.24%, 1.29%, 0.98%, and 1.43% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil increased by 0.65, 0.81, 0.96, 0.88, and 1.05 respectively, with increases of 0.96%, 1.29%, 1.39%, 1.37%, and 1.52% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased by 25,087 [3][15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased [3][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating Due to the lack of relevant content, this part is skipped. Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore has a supply surplus in floating and fixed storage tanks, and the supply pressure will continue. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level. FU2510 will operate in the 2690 - 2740 range, and LU2511 will operate in the 3430 - 3480 range. The行情 is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [3]. - The potential increase in sanctions against Russia is a bullish factor, while the unproven optimism on the demand side and the weak upstream crude oil price are bearish factors [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show a supply surplus of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, with supply pressure to continue. The basis indicates that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 189 barrels to 2263.9 barrels in the week of August 13. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short - held with short positions decreasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - held with long positions increasing. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - The previous values of FU and LU main - contract futures prices were 2701 and 3452 respectively, and the current values are 2712 and 3461, with increases of 11 and 9, and change rates of 0.41% and 0.26% respectively. The previous values of FU and LU basis were 125 and 94 respectively, and the current values are 134 and 61, with changes of 9 and - 33, and change rates of 7.23% and - 35.12% respectively [5]. - The previous values of spot prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil, Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil, Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel were 484.00, 505.00, 383.49, 480.50, 364.13, and 608.06 respectively. The current values are 485.00, 505.00, 387.06, 481.50, 367.70, and 618.93 respectively, with increases of 1.00, 0.00, 3.57, 1.00, 3.57, and 10.88 respectively, and change rates of 0.21%, 0.00%, 0.93%, 0.21%, 0.98%, and 1.79% respectively [6]. 2. Multi - Short Attention - Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia. Bearish factors include the unproven optimism on the demand side and the weak upstream crude oil price. The行情 is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of fuel oil show a supply surplus of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, with supply pressure to continue. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The inventory in Singapore increased in the week of August 13. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short - held with short positions decreasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - held with long positions increasing. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. 4. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on August 13 was 2263.9 barrels, an increase of 189 barrels compared to the previous period [3][8]. 5. Spread Data - Due to the lack of relevant content, this part is skipped.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session was 1306 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1205 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 101 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.23%, the price in Shahe remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 2.88% [6]. 2. Influencing Factors **Likely Positive Factors** - As the peak summer maintenance period approaches, production will decline [3]. **Likely Negative Factors** - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry output at a historically high level [5]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [5]. - The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Fundamental Analysis **Supply** - The production profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 41 yuan/ton, showing a recovery from historical lows [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 76.13 tons, including 42.97 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still plans for significant increases in soda ash production capacity, with planned new production capacities of 640 tons, 180 tons, and 750 tons respectively, and the actual new production capacity in 2025 is 100 tons [21]. **Demand** - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [33]. **Inventory** - The national in - factory inventory of soda ash is 191.08 tons, an increase of 0.90% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [36]. **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37].