Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 22, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to oscillate today. The "anti-involution" policy-driven gains have subsided, crude oil prices are falling, and while the demand for agricultural films for LLDPE is below expectations, the downstream demand for PP in sectors like pipes and plastic weaving is slightly improving. The industrial inventories for both are neutral [4][7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, in contraction for four consecutive months. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The "anti-involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but the market has returned to fundamentals after the sentiment cooled. Short-term oil prices are oscillating downward. The overall demand for agricultural films is below expectations, and the film production start-up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,230 (+50), with the overall fundamentals being neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -156, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 564,000 tons (+59,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The main LLDPE position is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. Considering the factors such as the subsiding policy-driven gains, falling crude oil prices, and below-expected agricultural film demand, it is expected that PE will oscillate today [4]. - **Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factors are weak demand and falling crude oil prices. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [6]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a contraction in the manufacturing PMI. The "anti-involution" policy impact has waned. Short-term oil prices are falling. Downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season, with a slight improvement in the demand for pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7,030 (-0), with the overall fundamentals being neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -18, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 572,000 tons (-15,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main PP position is net short, with a decrease in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is oscillating. Given the policy and market conditions, it is expected that PP will oscillate today [7]. - **Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factors are weak demand and falling crude oil prices. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [9]. Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The report provides detailed spot and futures prices for LLDPE and PP, including prices in different regions, changes, and prices of different contracts [10]. - **Inventory Data**: It shows the inventory types and quantities for LLDPE and PP, such as warehouse receipts, comprehensive factory inventories, and social inventories, along with their changes [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: The supply and demand balance sheet from 2018 - 2025E shows data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects, reflecting the industry's development trends over the years [15]. - **Polypropylene**: Similar to polyethylene, the supply and demand balance sheet for polypropylene from 2018 - 2025E presents relevant data to show the industry's supply and demand situation [17].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors, with the price expected to undergo oscillatory adjustments. The fundamentals are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production while the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the July manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%. The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, also indicating a neutral situation. Inventory levels are neutral, with an increase in overall copper inventory on August 21 and a rise in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The market trend is bearish as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is moving downward, but the net long position of the main players is decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Overall, factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season contribute to the price adjustment [2]. 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy is relaxed, and the July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 78,745 with a basis of 205, showing a premium of the spot over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 21, the copper inventory increased by 0 to 156,350 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons compared to last week, being neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is moving downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - **Main Players' Positions**: The main players have a net long position, but the long position is decreasing, showing a bullish tendency [2]. - **Expectation**: The copper price will experience oscillatory adjustments due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Domestic policy easing [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Escalation of the trade war [3]. 3.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 3.4 Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows that in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [20][22].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has declined, showing pressure at the 15,000 level. The tight supply of imported nickel has been alleviated to some extent. The medium - and long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The price of nickel is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average for the 2510 contract [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. The cost line has risen slightly, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average for the 2510 contract [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **Price Overview** - **Nickel**: On August 21, the price of SHFE nickel main contract was 119,830 yuan, down 230 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel was 14,940, down 105. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan, up 200 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: On August 21, the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,795 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in major regions remained unchanged [12]. **Inventory** - **Nickel**: As of August 21, LME nickel inventory was 209,598, an increase of 252; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22,588, an increase of 29. The total inventory increased by 281 [15]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of August 15, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons from the previous period. On August 21, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 118,640, a decrease of 1,129 [19][20]. **Cost** - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF remained stable on August 21. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 929 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,896 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,584 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,513 yuan [25]. **Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation and anti - involution policies [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in the short term, the spot price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to low processing margins, some plant overhauls, and the lack of cost - side support from oil prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine ceasefire and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - For MEG, the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with obvious downside support, as the arrival volume is at a low level, port inventory is expected to remain low, and demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and commodity trends [6]. - The industry has both positive and negative factors. Positives include planned PTA plant overhauls in August and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Negatives are the continued pressure on profit margins in each link of the industrial chain and the cautious overall operation atmosphere. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the market rebound [8]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - **PTA**: Yesterday, due to the unexpected shutdown of a 5 million - ton PTA plant in South China, the PTA futures price rose significantly, driving up the entire polyester - chain futures market. The downstream polyester sales also improved slightly. The spot basis first rose and then weakened. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 7. The PTA factory inventory is 3.71 days, a 0.05 - day increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. In the short term, the spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the basis will also show interval fluctuations [5]. - **MEG**: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol remained high, and the basis was stable. The intraday disk fluctuated slightly. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 88 - 92 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The inventory in East China decreased by 26,900 tons to 500,500 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing. In the short term, the market is expected to be slightly bullish, and the port inventory is expected to remain low in August - September [6][7]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol's operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes [10]. 5.价格相关 - There are multiple price - related charts, including the spot price of bottle chips, production margin, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG's inter - month spreads, basis, and the spot spread between TA and EG, as well as the processing margin of p - xylene [12][15][18][22][25][28][35]. 6.库存分析 - There are inventory - related charts, such as the PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice factory inventory, and the inventory days of various polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [38][40][43]. 7.聚酯上下游开工 - There are charts showing the upstream and downstream operating rates of polyester, including the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [49][53]. 8.加工费与利润 - There are charts about the PTA processing fee and the profits of MEG produced by different methods, as well as the production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) [57][60][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term market of Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The previous trading day saw a decline in Shanghai Zinc with shrinking trading volume. Long - positions slightly increased while short - positions slightly decreased. Technically, the price is above the 60 - day moving average with weak support, short - term indicators are in a weak zone, and the trend shows a stalemate between long and short forces [2][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a shortage of 56500 tons. The global zinc ore production from January to April was 4040600 tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price of zinc is 22260, with a basis of + 20, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On August 21, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons to 69375 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants remained unchanged at 32288 tons [2]. - From August 11 to August 21, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 99000 tons to 117400 tons [5]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On August 21, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts was 138079 lots, with a total turnover of 1538613560 yuan, and the total open interest was 214223 lots, a decrease of 1927 lots [3]. 5. Spot Market Quotes - On August 21, the price of zinc concentrate was 16950 yuan/ton (+ 30), zinc ingot was 22260 yuan/ton (+ 40), galvanized sheet was 4090 yuan/ton (- 4), galvanized pipe was 4490 yuan/ton (- 5), zinc alloy was 22780 yuan/ton (+ 60), zinc powder was 27340 yuan/ton (+ 60), zinc oxide was 20850 yuan/ton (unchanged), and secondary zinc oxide was 7726 yuan/ton (- 12) [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Production - In June 2025, the production of refined zinc was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The planned production for July is 470300 tons [16]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On August 21, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 3500 to 4000 yuan/metal ton, with some regions having no change [18]. 8. Futures Company Transaction and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2510 on August 21, the total trading volume of 20 futures companies was 134383 lots, a decrease of 35721 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position was 70832 lots, an increase of 272 lots, and the total short - position was 76267 lots, a decrease of 483 lots [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-920 偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线上运行 中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预期、中美贸易摩擦 现货价格 23年全乳胶，不可用于交割，8月21日现货价格上涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the export policy not being relaxed beyond expectations. The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today, as the international urea price is relatively strong, and the domestic market shows a clear oversupply situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been fluctuating recently. After the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the market returned to fundamentals. On the 19th, rumors of increased urea exports to India during the China - India foreign ministers' meeting led to a rise in futures prices. Currently, the daily production and operating rate are still at relatively high levels, and the overall inventory is high. In terms of demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are both low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of urea in China still significantly exceeds demand, and although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, while the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations, and the overall supply in the domestic market still significantly exceeds demand [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is the strong international price, while the bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (-30), the Shandong spot price is 1820 (-40), the Henan spot price is 1840 (0), and the FOB China price is 2942 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1764 (-12), the UR05 contract is 1797 (-13), and the UR09 contract is 1737 (-14). The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56 (-18), with a premium - discount ratio of 3.1% [4][6]. Inventory The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), including 0.968 million tons in factory inventory and 0.489 million tons in port inventory. The number of warehouse receipts is 3573 (0) [4][6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 11.0% in 2025E. - Production has also generally increased, and the apparent consumption has shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased over the years [10].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral due to carbon - neutral policies controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market, along with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral state with a spot price of 20690 and a basis of 100, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons, also neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving downwards, a neutral signal. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a slightly bullish tendency. In the long run, carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, leading to an oscillating aluminum price [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real - estate market remains weak, and short - term macro sentiment is volatile; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 20690, basis is 100, premium over futures; neutral [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons; neutral [2]. - Disk: Closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is moving downwards; neutral [2]. - Main Positions: Main net long positions, long positions decreasing; slightly bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices in the long run, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, and the aluminum price will oscillate [2]. b. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products is cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. c. Daily Summary - Spot Prices: Shanghai's yesterday's spot price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu's was 70690, down 450; today's Yangtze River's was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 699 to 70798 tons; LME inventory decreased by 425 to 74750 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory (weekly) increased by 29728 to 136300 tons [4]. d. Supply - Demand Balance | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.61 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.31 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [22]

Group 1: Report Core View - The import volume of white sugar has increased significantly. Due to good domestic sales, the spot price is firm, and the domestic market trend is stronger than the international market. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar is under short - term pressure at the 5700 mark and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5700 intraday [5][9] - The bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and Coca - Cola in the US changing its formula to use sucrose. The bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production and the global supply surplus in the new year [7] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Fundamental Data - SCA Brasil estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4] - The basis of Liuzhou spot is 342 (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons. The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4][6] Supply - demand Forecasts from Different Institutions | Institution | Supply - demand Balance (10,000 tons) | Global Production (10,000 tons) | Global Consumption (10,000 tons) | Inventory - consumption Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Green Pool | Surplus 270 | 20,200 (second - highest in history) | 19,830 | Not specified | | USDA | Surplus 1,139.7 | 18,931.8 | 17,792.1 | 23% | | CZarnikow | Surplus 780 | 18,720 | Not specified | Not specified | | Datagro | Surplus 258 | Not specified | Not specified | Not specified | [36] China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance Sheet | Indicator | 2024/25 (August Estimate) | 2023/24 | 2025/26 (July Forecast) | 2025/26 (August Forecast) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar - crop Sown Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Harvested Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Yield per Hectare (ton per hectares) | 60.70 | 58.65 | 59.70 | 59.70 | | Sugar Production (10,000 tons) | 996 | 1116 | 1120 | 1120 | | Import (10,000 tons) | 475 | 500 | 500 | 500 | | Consumption (10,000 tons) | 1550 | 1580 | 1590 | 1590 | | Balance Change (10,000 tons) | - 94 | 20 | 12 | 12 | | International Sugar Price (cents per pound) | 21.70 | 15.5 - 20 | 16.5 - 21.5 | 16.5 - 21.5 | | Domestic Sugar Price (yuan per ton) | 6492 | 5900 - 6200 | 5800 - 6500 | 5800 - 6500 | [38] Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost (50% Tariff) | Month | ICE Raw Sugar Average Price (cents per pound) | Refined Tax - included Cost (yuan per ton) | Key Market Events | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | July 2024 | 18.5 - 20.7 | 6330 - 6520 | Weak Brazilian crushing data, but global production increase expectation suppresses prices | | September 2024 | 18.94 | 6390 | Higher - than - expected crushing volume in central - southern Brazil, cost slightly rebounds | | January 2025 | 17.70 (far - month contract) | 5990 | Raw sugar falls to a four - year low, import window opens | | June 2025 | 16.0 - 17.0 | 5650 - 5700 | High sugar - making ratio in Brazil, clear production increase in Thailand, cost further declines | | July 2025 | 16.35 | 5600 - 5650 | Concerns about decreased yield in Brazil briefly support prices, but supply - demand relaxation trend remains unchanged | [45] Group 3: Main Position Analysis - The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight, US EIA crude oil and gasoline inventories both decreased more than expected, which boosted short - term crude oil demand and led to a stable recovery in prices. Geopolitically, according to Russian sources, India has not largely abandoned Russian oil, and the Russia - Ukraine war negotiations are ongoing with no significant progress. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with prices in the range of 483 - 493, and long - term investors are advised to hold long positions [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2510, the fundamentals are neutral as Russia expects to continue supplying oil to India despite US warnings, US inventories show a mixed picture, and Fed officials are concerned about inflation. The basis is bullish with spot prices at par with futures. Inventory data is bullish as US API and EIA crude inventories decreased more than expected. The disk is bearish with the 20 - day moving average downward and prices below it. The main positions are bearish as both WTI and Brent crude main positions' long positions decreased. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate in the 483 - 493 range, and long - term investors should hold long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - At the July Fed monetary policy meeting, most officials emphasized that inflation risks outweighed concerns about the labor market. Two high - level officials opposed maintaining interest rates and hoped to cut rates due to concerns about the labor market. However, subsequent data on core consumer inflation and producer prices provided evidence for those opposing rapid rate cuts. Also, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the EU plans to prepare a new round of sanctions against Russia in September. There are discussions about a possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but Russia has not confirmed Putin's participation [5]. 3. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict; continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and Oman crude increased by 1.60%, 1.52%, and 0.94% respectively, while SC crude decreased by 0.64% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various types of crude oil such as UK Brent, WTI, Oman, etc., all increased, with Oman crude rising by 1.12% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventory as of August 15 decreased by 241.7 million barrels, and EIA inventory decreased by 601.4 million barrels, both more than expected. Cushing area inventory increased by 41.9 million barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 476.7 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude**: As of August 12, the net long position decreased by 25,087 [15]. - **Brent Crude**: As of August 12, the net long position decreased by 34,430 [17].