Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term US soybean market is supported by China's soybean purchases, but uncertainties in purchase volume and good harvesting weather limit its upside. The domestic soybean meal market is driven by US soybeans and maintains a range - bound pattern due to factors such as high - level arrivals of imported Brazilian soybeans and short - term demand being in the off - season [9]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the price of US soybeans. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price floor, while the high - level arrivals of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit its upside [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips No specific content provided in the text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather remain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark and awaits further guidance on soybean growth, harvesting, and Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills declined from a high level. Affected by the normal harvesting weather of US soybeans and the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing its price. The market is in a range - bound pattern under the cross - influence of US soybean trends and the off - season demand [13]. - The high - level inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the potential for weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas, and the Sino - US trade agreement have caused soybean meal to maintain a short - term range - bound pattern, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors - For soybean meal: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - For soybeans: Cost support from imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. Bearish Factors - For soybean meal: High - level arrival volume of imported soybeans in November and the expected high yield of US soybeans due to the harvest and good weather [14]. - For soybeans: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 3000 (in East China), with a basis of - 58, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 18, showing a neutral situation. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal (M2601) - It is expected to oscillate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The market is affected by the trend of US soybeans, with demand in the short - term off - season and the spot price discount limiting the upward movement of the futures price. The overall view is neutral [9]. Soybeans (A2601) - It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The market is influenced by the price of US soybeans, with the cost of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand supporting the price floor, while high - level arrivals of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic production limit its upside. The overall view is neutral [11].

I. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. II. Core Viewpoints - The oil price has been fluctuating slightly recently, and the market is waiting for more macro - event results. There is hope for the US government to reopen, which has alleviated some market concerns. Russia increased its crude oil production in October but remained below the OPEC+ limit. Hungary claimed to have obtained an indefinite US sanction exemption for using Russian oil and gas, which may weaken the support of Russian oil supply cuts on oil prices. The short - term outlook for crude oil is to wait and see, with the SC2512 contract expected to operate in the range of 455 - 465, and a long - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. - The short - term market is driven by strengthened geopolitical conflicts, while in the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of increased supply. The risk points include the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [6]. III. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For the crude oil 2512 contract, the fundamentals are neutral considering the US government shutdown negotiation progress, Hungary's sanction exemption, and Russia's production increase. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bearish as US API and EIA inventories increased significantly in the week ending October 31. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price above it, indicating a neutral situation. The main positions in WTI and Brent crude oil show different trends, overall being neutral [3]. 2. Recent News - Hungary claimed to have obtained an indefinite US sanction exemption for using Russian oil and gas, contradicting the White House's statement of a one - year exemption. US Senate Majority Leader John Thune said a potential agreement to end the government shutdown is "being gradually reached", and a test vote may be held soon. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased by 2 in the week ending November 7 [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Bullish Factors**: Optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, cancellation of US - Russia talks leading to increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ suspending production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Likely Bearish Factors**: Easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering continued production increases [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: On November 7, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $65.37 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.67 per barrel. The basis was 36.43 yuan per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels). Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels in the week ending October 31. As of November 7, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.47 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - **Futures and Spot Market Changes**: In the futures market, the settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all decreased. In the spot market, the prices of various types of crude oil also declined, with different decline rates [7][9]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 23, the main position was long, and the number of long positions increased [3]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of November 4, the main position was long, and the number of long positions decreased [3]. - **Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds showed different trends at different times from July to October [16][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant production is at a high level, with the expected commissioning of Yuanying Phase II before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant overall supply. There are supply disturbance expectations for downstream float glass, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,155 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,210 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 55 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 171,420 tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded from a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level for the same period [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Low - End Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,207 yuan/ton | 1,145 yuan/ton | - 62 yuan | | Current Value | 1,210 yuan/ton | 1,155 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan | | Change Rate | 0.25% | 0.87% | - 11.29% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply 3.5.1 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit using the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. 3.5.2 Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67% [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 746,800 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 414,800 tons, and the production is at a historical high [20]. 3.5.3 Changes in Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity - In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned newly added production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually commissioned [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand 3.6.1 Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. 3.6.2 Downstream Demand for Soda Ash - Float glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% [27]. - Photovoltaic glass: The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [2][4]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 171,420 tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash [35].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 4 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 1万吨 ， . 2万吨 ， | 环比减少5 | 环比有所减少9 74% . . | 00% 。 . 需求持续低迷 | . | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为25 . | 9万吨 处于低位 ， | ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | 电池片亏损 | 组件盈利 ， | ； | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple institutions predict a shift from balance to surplus in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season, with Czarnikow raising the surplus forecast to 740 million tons and StoneX estimating a 277 million - ton surplus [5][8]. - In the short - term, international sugar prices are falling, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones, possibly due to high spot prices of new sugar. However, the long - term divergence between domestic and international trends is unsustainable. For 01 contracts approaching delivery, short - selling on 05 contracts at high prices is recommended for bears [5][8]. - The domestic sugar market has positive factors such as good consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of US cola. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new season, low international sugar prices leading to an open import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Czarnikow raises the 25/26 global sugar surplus forecast to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicts a 277 million - ton surplus, and ISO forecasts a 23.1 million - ton supply gap, significantly reduced from the previous prediction. As of the end of August 2025, the 24/25 season's national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a 15 - million - ton increase year - on - year, and 15.14 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a 13.51 - million - ton decrease year - on - year. This is bearish [5]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5760, with a basis of 303 (01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of August 24/25, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near it, which is neutral [5]. - Main positions: The net short positions are decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. - Expectation: Recently, international sugar prices are falling, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and international trends is unsustainable. For 01 contracts approaching delivery, short - selling on 05 contracts at high prices is recommended for bears [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market, with different surplus estimates. The domestic sugar supply and demand balance shows a narrowing gap in the medium - to - long - term [5][8]. - Price: The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. - Import: In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a 15 - million - ton increase year - on - year, and 15.14 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a 13.51 - million - ton decrease year - on - year [5][8]. 3.5 Position Data - No detailed position data provided other than the information that the main positions are bearish and the net short positions are decreasing [5].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月10日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为80.75%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量34.535万吨，环比增加4.89%,乙烯法企业产 量14.677万吨，环比减少0.63%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 3 每日观点 。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.6%，环比减少0.93个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为37.61%，环比减少0.21个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为39.4%，环比减少2.6个百 分点，低于历史平均 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. Influenced by soybean meal and with uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tip - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but due to China - Canada trade issues, short - term exports are expected to decrease, reducing domestic supply. The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports by China has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict still has the possibility of rising, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports by China and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports by China. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 30 to November 7, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3026 to 3092, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 to 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2530 to 2650, and the trading volume was 0. The difference in the average transaction price of soybean and rapeseed meal ranged from 438 to 528. Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, and the spot price fluctuated accordingly. The spot premium fluctuated slightly. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated slightly. The import of rapeseed has no shipping schedule forecast in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills is at a low level, and the amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][17][19]. 5. Position Data - Not provided Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental analysis shows that rapeseed meal is oscillating and falling back, influenced by soybean meal and technical oscillations. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. The basis is 101, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The long positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed in. Rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate and fall back due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and with recent rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations, it will return to an oscillating pattern in the short term [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices are both in a state of oscillation. The hope of the end of the US government shutdown has stabilized risk appetite, and the prices of both precious metals are expected to be slightly bearish in the medium - to - long term [4][5]. - For gold, although US consumer confidence is near a record low, the hope of the end of the government shutdown affects its price. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to - 0.4 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, being included in the US critical minerals list may bring tariff concerns and provide some support. The silver premium remains at 320 yuan/gram [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US consumer confidence is near a record low, but the hope of the end of the government shutdown causes gold price oscillation. US stock indices show mixed performance, European stock indices fall, US bond yields rise (10 - year yield up 1.54 basis points to 4.097%), the US dollar index falls 0.16% to 99.55, and COMEX gold futures rise 0.42% to $4007.8 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory increases, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, the main position is net long but with a reduction in long positions [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, affected by the situation in the US, silver price oscillates. It is included in the US critical minerals list, and tariff concerns may support the price. COMEX silver futures rise 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce. The basis shows the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory decreases, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions [5][6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today, pay attention to the release of the summary of the opinions of the Japanese central bank's deliberation committee members, the euro - zone investor confidence index, the preliminary value of Japan's September coincident index, and the possible release of Buffett's Thanksgiving letter to shareholders [4][17]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50: The Japanese central bank publishes the summary of the opinions of its deliberation committee members. - 13:00: The preliminary value of Japan's September coincident index is released. - 17:30: The euro - zone November Sentix investor confidence index is announced. - Indefinite: Buffett's Thanksgiving letter to shareholders may be released [17]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The futures price is 921.26, the spot price is 918, with a basis of - 3.26 (spot at a discount to futures). The futures warehouse receipt is 89,616 kg, an increase of 1,800 kg [4]. - **Silver**: The futures price is 11,484, the spot price is 11,481, with a basis of - 3 (spot at a discount to futures). The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 623,052 kg, a daily decrease of 16,888 kg [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main players is decreasing. For example, on November 7, 2025, the long - order volume is 165,261, an increase of 2,283 (1.40%) compared to November 6; the short - order volume is 67,608, an increase of 934 (1.40%); the net position is 97,653, an increase of 1,349 (1.40%) [33]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main players is increasing. On November 7, 2025, the long - order volume is 354,598, an increase of 14,183 (4.17%) compared to November 6; the short - order volume is 255,979, an increase of 4,872 (1.94%); the net position is 98,619, an increase of 9,311 (10.43%) [35].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The nickel market is expected to be in a long - term oversupply situation, with the nickel price of contract 2512 likely to fluctuate weakly and test the cost support [2]. - The stainless - steel market of contract 2512 is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Price Movement**: Last week, the nickel price fluctuated weakly, and trading improved. On November 7, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 120,900 yuan, up 400 yuan from the previous day [2][12]. - **Fundamentals**: Nickel ore prices are firm as the rainy season in the Philippines approaches, and sea freight is stable. Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the cost line moves down. New nickel production capacity is put into operation while some production is cut, with short - term output possibly decreasing but long - term supply remaining strong. The new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost to the nickel market is limited [2]. - **Key Indicators**: The basis is 1,460 yuan, indicating a bullish factor. LME inventory is 253,104 tons with no change, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 32,634 tons, a decrease of 55 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Price Movement**: The spot stainless - steel price remained flat on November 7. The average stainless - steel price was 13,550 yuan, and the basis was 985 yuan [4][12]. - **Fundamentals**: Short - term nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight is stable, nickel - iron prices decline, and the cost line moves down further. Stainless - steel inventory has a slight increase [4]. - **Key Indicators**: The futures warehouse receipts are 72,091 tons, a decrease of 371 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4]. Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: As of November 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 37,187 tons, with the futures inventory at 32,634 tons, an increase of 436 tons and 1,246 tons respectively. The total inventory was 285,738 tons, a decrease of 55 tons [14][15]. - **Stainless - Steel Inventory**: On November 7, the Wuxi inventory was 599,000 tons, the Foshan inventory was 310,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,034,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,900 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 639,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,400 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 72,091 tons, a decrease of 371 tons [19][20]. Price of Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 30 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The high - nickel wet - ton price was 916.5 yuan per nickel point, a decrease of 1.5 yuan, and the low - nickel wet - ton price was 3,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [23]. - **Stainless - Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost was 12,740 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 12,893 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,534 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 120,401 yuan per ton [29].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report date: November 10, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [4]. - On October 30, China - US leaders met, with the US canceling some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspending 301 investigations in maritime and logistics fields for one year, and China adjusting counter - measures accordingly. OPEC + announced a suspension of production increase in Q1 2026, leading to oil price fluctuations [4]. - The peak - season demand for agricultural films continues with high - level operation, while inventory preparation for other films is gradually ending. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6800 (+50), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Other Indicators - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is - 2, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.0%, neutral [4]. - PE comprehensive inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), bearish [4]. - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4]. Outlook - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. With oversupply in fundamentals, fluctuating crude oil prices, and moderately high industrial inventory, PE is expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. Factors Influencing LLDPE - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Phased easing achieved in China - US talks [5]. - Bearish factors: Weak year - on - year demand; Many new projects put into production in Q4 [5]. - Main logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, in October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the China - US meeting and OPEC + production suspension also affected the market. The demand for plastic woven products is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6500 (- 0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Other Indicators - The basis of PP 2601 contract is 36, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.6%, bullish [6]. - PP comprehensive inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), bearish [6]. - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6]. - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [6]. Outlook - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Given oversupply in fundamentals, fluctuating crude oil prices, and moderately high industrial inventory, PP is expected to fluctuate weakly today [6]. Factors Influencing PP - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Phased easing achieved in China - US talks [7]. - Bearish factors: Weak year - on - year demand; Many new projects put into production in Q4 [7]. - Main logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - For LLDPE, the spot delivery product price is 6800 (+50), the 01 contract price is 6802 (- 3), etc. [8] - For PP, the spot delivery product price is 6500 (0), the 01 contract price is 6464 (- 7), etc. [8] Inventory Data - LLDPE: Warehouse receipts are 12,669 (0 change), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 540,000 tons, and social inventory is 510,000 tons [8]. - PP: Warehouse receipts are 14,629 (0 change), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 600,000 tons, and social inventory is 333,000 tons [8] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polyethylene showed different trends. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4,319,500 tons with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene also changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4,906,000 tons with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]