Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overnight crude oil failed to maintain its upward momentum and declined, ending the session slightly lower. Saudi Aramco's reduction of the official selling price to Asia dampened some of the market's optimistic sentiment. The impact of sanctions on Russia has begun to show, but it is weak and its sustainability remains to be seen. It is estimated that Russia's oil exports from its western ports in November will slightly decline, but still remain close to recent historical highs. In the short term, there is not enough support for a significant increase in oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate. The SC2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: After the US imposed a new round of sanctions on major Russian oil producers, major refineries in India and China reduced their purchases, causing the trading price of Russian oil in Asia to show the largest discount to Brent crude in a year. Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil sold to Asia in December. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asia by $1.20 per barrel, to a premium of $1 per barrel over the regional benchmark. The overall assessment is neutral [3] - **Basis**: On November 6, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.95 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.51 per barrel. The basis was 30.99 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3] - **Inventory**: For the week ending October 31, the API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 6.521 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels). The inventory in the Cushing area increased by 30 barrels. As of November 6, the inventory of Shanghai crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3.47 million barrels, which is a bearish signal [3] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the moving average, which is a bearish signal [3] - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions of the WTI crude oil main contract increased, and as of October 28, the long positions of the Brent crude oil main contract also increased, which is a bullish signal [3] - **Expectation**: Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the SC2512 contract trading in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3] 2. Recent News - **Saudi Arabia's Pricing Adjustment**: Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil sold to Asia in December. Saudi Aramco cut the price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia by $1.20 per barrel, to a premium of $1 per barrel over the regional benchmark. It also cut the prices of medium and heavy crude oils by $1.40 per barrel and the prices of ultra - light and extra - light crude oils by $1.20 per barrel. Saudi Arabia and some major OPEC+ members announced that they would suspend production increases in the first quarter to balance market share competition and potential supply gluts. London market crude oil has fallen nearly 15% this year and is currently trading below $65 [5] - **US Employment Situation**: Private data shows that US employment decreased in October due to government and retail sectors. The number of announced layoffs soared by 37% to 43,600 in October, and the planned layoff number in October soared by 183% to 153,074, the highest in the same period in 22 years [5] - **Fed's Stance**: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that high inflation levels are not conducive to the Fed's further interest rate cuts, and she is worried that monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with current inflation [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: There are optimistic signals in Sino - US trade negotiations, the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ is considering further production increases [6] - **Market Drivers**: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified in the short term, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all declined. Their decline rates were - 0.22%, - 0.29%, - 0.35%, and - 1.43% respectively [7] - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all declined. Their decline rates were - 0.96%, - 0.29%, - 1.65%, - 0.67%, and - 1.37% respectively [9] - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventories both increased in the week ending October 31. API inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels [3][10][12] 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 4,249 [16] - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of October 28, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 119,046 [18]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the fuel oil market may continue its weak consolidation due to the decline in crude oil prices and insufficient support from the news. The bunker fuel market lacks positive factors, resulting in low trading enthusiasm and a weak performance of fuel oil. The FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2660 - 2720, and the LU2601 in the range of 3210 - 3270 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fuel oil market may continue its weak consolidation. The bunker fuel market lacks positive support, and trading enthusiasm is low. The FU2601 is expected to trade between 2660 - 2720, and the LU2601 between 3210 - 3270 [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: Russia has extended its fuel oil export restrictions, and the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Market Structure**: The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil remains at the current level. The spot discount of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil has widened for the first time in four trading days. However, due to the weakening of the East - West arbitrage economy, the supply in December is expected to tighten, and the fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market may be supported in the coming weeks [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 55 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is - 12 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 5 was 21.069 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [3]. - **Market Chart**: The price is near the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - **Main Positions**: The main position in high - sulfur fuel oil is short, with short positions decreasing; the main position in low - sulfur fuel oil is long, with long positions increasing [3]. 3.4 Spread Data The report presents the price difference chart between high - sulfur and low - sulfur futures, but no specific data analysis is provided [10]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from August 27 to November 5 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The industrial silicon market is affected by multiple factors, with supply-side production cuts and demand recovery at a low level. The cost support has increased, and the industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8965 - 9165 [3]. - The polysilicon market shows a continuous decline in supply and demand, with a weakening of cost support. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52590 - 54200 [8]. - The main logic for the market is that the supply-demand imbalance caused by capacity mismatch is difficult to change, with cost increases providing some support, but the slow post - holiday demand recovery and the oversupply in the downstream polysilicon market are negative factors [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule is expected to decrease and stay around the historical average [3]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 87,000 tons, at a neutral level and a 7.44% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is generally weak [3]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is at a loss of 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week, while the sample enterprise inventory and major port inventory have increased [3]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [3]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8965 - 9165 [3]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The November production schedule is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: The production and demand in the downstream sectors of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all decreasing. The silicon wafer and battery cell production are in a loss state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 37,790 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 13,210 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the historical period [8]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position has changed to long [8]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52590 - 54200 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - The report provides detailed data on the price, basis, inventory, production, and capacity utilization of industrial silicon, as well as the cost and profit of different regions and specifications [14]. - It also shows the price trends of downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, as well as their production, inventory, and trade data [41][50][60]. Polysilicon - The report presents data on the production, demand, inventory, and price of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and trade data of its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [16]. - It also includes the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon, showing the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance situation [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of lithium carbonate are neutral. The supply side shows that last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% decrease from the previous week, and higher than the historical average. The production in October 2025 was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The demand side indicates that the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. The overall inventory is higher than the historical average, but the inventory of smelters is lower than the historical average [8][9]. - The cost situation varies. The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 0.11% day - on - day, with a production profit of 419 yuan/ton. The cost of imported lithium mica increased by 0.14% day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 5,626 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - On November 06, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The market is expected to see strengthened demand next month, and inventory may be reduced. The price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased day - on - day and is lower than the historical average. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79,420 - 81,580 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% decrease from the previous week and higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease [8][9]. - Demand side: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 105,719 tons, a 0.70% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, a 1.60% increase from the previous week [8]. - Cost side: The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate was 78,850 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease day - on - day, with a production profit of 419 yuan/ton. The cost of imported lithium mica was 82,865 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 5,626 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Market indicators: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is neutral; the inventory situation is neutral; the market trend is bullish; the main positions are net short and increasing short positions; the expected price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79,420 - 81,580 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease from the previous day [15]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different changes. The monthly production of lithium carbonate also showed an overall upward trend in some cases. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase from the previous month [18]. - **Demand - side Data**: The production and sales data of lithium - ion batteries, new energy vehicles, and related materials showed different trends. For example, the monthly total installation volume of power batteries was 76,000 GWh, a 21.60% increase from the previous month [18]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventory, showed different trends. The overall inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3020 and 3080. The domestic soybean meal may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, influenced by the US soybean trend, demand in the off - season, and spot price discounts. [8][9] - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4100. The domestic soybean will be affected by the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations and the continuous arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, and will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term. [10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the document 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short - term. [13] - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills decreased from a high level. Affected by the normal harvesting weather of US soybeans and the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, domestic soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern. [13] - The reduction of domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking, which suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal in November. The soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean trend and the off - season demand, and has returned to an oscillatory pattern. [13] - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Affected by the possible weather speculation in the US soybean production area and the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, waiting for the clarification of US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations. [13] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area. [14] - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the listing of harvested US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. [14] Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation. [15] - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans. [15] 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From October 29 to November 6, the transaction average price and volume of soybean meal fluctuated, while the transaction volume of rapeseed meal was mostly 0, and the price of rapeseed meal gradually increased. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend. [16] - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From October 30 to November 6, the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures fluctuated, and the spot prices of soybeans remained relatively stable, while the spot price of soybean meal gradually increased. [18] - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From October 28 to November 6, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2 increased, while the warehouse receipts of soybean meal decreased. [20] - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other data over the years. [31][32] - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions**: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the United States, and Brazil from 2023 to 2025/26, reflecting the development of the soybean industry in different regions. [33][34][38] - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 show the changes in planting area, yield, output, and other data of soybeans. [43] - **Other Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year; the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from a high level in November but increased year - on - year as a whole; the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly; the unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level; the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market fluctuated slightly; the pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month; the pig price stopped falling and rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak; the proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly; the domestic pig - breeding profit improved recently. [44][46][47] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the highest number of Challenger job - cuts in the US in October in over two decades, concerns in the job market rose, and the technology giants led the decline in the US stock market, causing the gold price to fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to - 1.2 yuan/gram. With risk appetite cooling again and a slight long - term bearish trend, the gold price will fluctuate [4]. - For silver, affected by the same factors as gold, the silver price fluctuated. Also, as silver was included in the US critical minerals list, tariff concerns may heat up again, providing support. The silver premium expanded to 310 yuan/gram. With risk appetite cooling again and a slight long - term bearish trend, the silver price will fluctuate [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield dropped 7.60 basis points to 4.083%, the US dollar index fell 0.45% to 99.70, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1209. COMEX gold futures fell 0.20% to $3984.80 per ounce. The gold price first rose and then fluctuated downward [4]. - **Silver**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield dropped 7.60 basis points to 4.083%, the US dollar index fell 0.45% to 99.70, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1209. COMEX silver futures fell 0.37% to $47.85 per ounce. The silver price fluctuated [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 2.3, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the gold futures warehouse receipts are 87816 kg, unchanged (bearish); the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 19, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 639940 kg, a daily decrease of 16230 kg (bullish); the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position is long, and the main long position increased (bullish) [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Multiple events are scheduled, including European Central Bank officials' speeches, the opening of the 2025 Global Computing Conference, China's October import - export and trade balance data, October foreign exchange reserves, the initial value of the third - quarter current account, speeches by US Federal Reserve officials, the Canadian October employment report, the initial value of the US November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, and more [17]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and it was difficult for the gold price to fall. However, the support for the gold price has significantly weakened as the latter two of the three major factors (US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and concerns about the escalation of China - US tariffs) have improved [11]. - **Silver**: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a greater impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to an enlarged increase. There are both bullish and bearish factors, such as global turmoil, inflation, and tariff concerns on the bullish side, and expectations of a halt to rate cuts, insufficient European fiscal expansion on the bearish side [15][16]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On November 6, 2025, the long - order volume was 162,978, an increase of 1.65% from the previous day; the short - order volume was 66,674, an increase of 1.51% from the previous day; the net position was 96,304, an increase of 1.75% from the previous day [33]. - **Silver**: On November 6, 2025, the long - order volume was 340,415, an increase of 2.96% from the previous day; the short - order volume was 251,107, an increase of 1.79% from the previous day; the net position was 89,308, an increase of 6.41% from the previous day [35].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of glass has recently shown an increase after reaching a relatively low level, with more disturbances on the supply - side. However, the terminal demand is still weak. Therefore, it is expected that the glass market will mainly move in a sideways pattern in the short - term [3][7]. 3. Section Summaries Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1097 yuan/ton to 1101 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase. The cash price of Shahe Safety large - size glass remained unchanged at 1048 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from - 49 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a change of 8.16% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1048 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - No specific content about the cost side is provided in the report. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%, at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, with production capacity at the lowest level in the same period of history but showing signs of recovery [24][26]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on consuming the original glass inventory [30][6]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.136 million weight boxes, a 4.03% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [45]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the apparent supply is 54.61 million tons, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons [46]. 4. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. The "coal - to - gas" conversion of some production lines in the Shahe area has increased supply - side disturbances [5]. Negative Factors - The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on consuming the original glass inventory [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for LLDPE and PP is bearish, with expectations of weak and volatile trends today. The main factors include an oversupply situation, a decline in manufacturing PMI, limited support from the cost side of crude oil, and relatively high industrial inventories. However, the recent rebound in oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the phased easing of Sino-US relations may provide some support [4][6]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but inventory replenishment for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6750 (-80), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -55, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.8%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be weak and volatile. With an oversupply in the fundamentals, recent Sino - US talks, and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and relatively high industrial inventories, PE is expected to trend weakly and volatile today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and phased easing of Sino - US relations [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The long - term pattern of crude oil remains unchanged in terms of cost support. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6500 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 29, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be weak and volatile. Considering the oversupply in the fundamentals, Sino - US talks, the rebound in crude oil prices, and relatively high industrial inventories, PP is expected to trend weakly and volatile today [6]. - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and phased easing of Sino - US relations [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level compared to the same period [2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from 1195 yuan/ton to 1207 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.00%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1145 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a change of 24.00% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1145 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [12] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 86.89%. The weekly output was 75.76 tons, with heavy soda ash at 41.98 tons, at a historical high. Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year [18][20][5] 3.4 Soda Ash Production Capacity Changes - In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [21] 3.5 Soda Ash Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 99.78%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 16.13 tons, with an operating rate of 76.35% and a stable trend. The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, decreased, and the demand for soda ash weakened [24][27][5] 3.6 Soda Ash Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories across the country was 171.42 tons, an increase of 0.72% compared to the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34] 3.7 Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production capacity, output, import, export, and other data of soda ash showed different trends. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, and there was a supply - demand difference of 157 tons [35] 3.8 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized and rebounded [3] - **Negative factors**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, and the inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The main risk points include the lower - than - expected cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass and better - than - expected macro - level benefits [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 2、基差：现货85845，基差-475，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：11月6日铜库存增500至134475吨，上期所铜库存较上周增11348吨至116140吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铜: 每日观点 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，10月份中国制造业生产活动 较上月放缓，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)降至49.0%；中性。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓慢,自由港印尼矿区减产事件 6、预期：库存回 ...