Report Information - Report Title: PTA&MEG Morning Report - November 7, 2025 [1] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015557 [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PTA: Affected by the broader market and market rumors, PTA futures rose significantly. The spot market had a mediocre trading atmosphere with weak spot basis. It's expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short - term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - MEG: This week, there is a concentrated arrival of foreign - made ethylene glycol vessels. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a continuous expectation of supply surplus. It's expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will decline, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Affected by the broader market and rumors, futures rose, spot trading was mediocre, and the basis was weak. 11 - month goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with a price range of 4480 - 4605. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 80 [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4540, 01 contract basis was - 148, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: Net short position with a reduction in short positions [5]. - Expectation: The spot market trading atmosphere is dull, mainly dominated by traders. It's expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short - term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: On Thursday, ethylene glycol had a wide - range adjustment. This week, there is a concentrated arrival of foreign - made vessels, and the supply in the month is abundant [7]. - Basis: Spot price was 3978, 01 contract basis was 54, with the futures price lower than the spot price [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 56.7 tons, an increase of 6.7 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position with a reduction in short positions [7]. - Expectation: In the medium - to - long - term, there is a continuous expectation of supply surplus. It's expected that the price center will decline, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, inventory, etc. For example, in January 2024, PTA production capacity was 8062, output was 591, and consumption was 572 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, etc. For example, in January 2024, ethylene glycol production was 51, import was 128, and consumption was 211 [12]. - **Price Data**: Includes spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products on November 6 and 5, 2025, as well as price changes, basis, and processing margins. For example, the spot price of PTA was 4540 yuan/ton on November 6, 2025, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [13]. 5. PTA Daily View - As described in the "Daily Tips" section for PTA [5] 6. MEG Daily View - As described in the "Daily Tips" section for MEG [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have declined from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The UR2601 contract basis is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.7%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are the strong international price and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory is slightly down. Agricultural demand rebounds due to weather, industrial demand is weak. Export volume increases with large price difference, but domestic market is still oversupplied. Spot price of delivery product is 1570 (+0), overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: UR2601 contract basis is -74, premium/discount ratio is -4.7%, bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today considering weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international prices and increasing export volume, but obvious domestic oversupply [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 with an 11.0% growth rate [9]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1570 with no change, Shandong spot price is 1580 with no change, Henan spot price is 1570 with no change, and FOB China price is 2690 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1644 (+11), the basis is -74 (-11), UR05 price is 1727 (+12), and UR09 price is 1750 (+11) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), the UR manufacturer inventory is 155.4 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 11 million tons [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase as refineries have recently increased production schedules [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average and is affected by the off - season, resulting in less - than - expected and sluggish demand [7]. - The cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken in the short term due to the decline in crude oil prices [7]. - The asphalt market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating between 3085 - 3133 [7]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, the total planned production of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 331,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98%. The sample enterprises' output is 556,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 608,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.05%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt is 11.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 15.0301%, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 33%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 30%, unchanged from the previous month. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the decline of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [7]. - **Basis**: On November 6th, the spot price in Shandong is 3100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 9 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking state, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a shift from long to short, showing a bearish situation [7]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which can be used for spread trading analysis [22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, which can assist in cross - commodity price analysis [33]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trends**: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [35]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the profitability of asphalt production [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profit differences between different production processes [42]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025, which can reflect the supply situation in the market [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the supply of raw materials [46]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall supply capacity [49]. - **Marine Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical price trend of Marine oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025, which can affect the cost and supply of asphalt [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which reflects the production contribution of local refineries [55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025, which can reflect the operating efficiency of the production side [58]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025, which can affect the supply in the market [60]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the inventory situation in the futures market [63]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025, which are important indicators for analyzing the overall inventory situation [67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025, which can reflect the inventory management efficiency of enterprises [70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can affect the domestic supply and demand balance [73]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: It presents the historical spread trend of Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025, which can be used for import cost analysis [76]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025, which can be related to the demand for asphalt [79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which reflects the overall market demand [82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025, which can affect the demand for asphalt [85]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion**: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the downstream construction demand [90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It presents the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the production and demand situation of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **Operating Rate by Use**: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the demand in different application scenarios [97]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It presents the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can reflect the downstream demand for asphalt [99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which can help comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain range - bound fluctuations [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The main influencing factors include the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the change in domestic aquaculture demand season, and potential changes in the Sino - Canadian trade relationship [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2500 - 2560 range - bound oscillation. Factors influencing it include soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, the pending anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, low inventory, and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relationship [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply expected to be tight in the short - term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts still support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: From October 29 to November 6, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3017 to 3092, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 to 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2500 to 2650, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 517 to 442 [13]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 29 to November 6, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2601) increased from 2373 to 2549, and the price of the far - month contract 2605 increased from 2330 to 2416. The spot price in Fujian increased from 2500 to 2650 [15]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From October 28 to November 6, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4050 to 2755 [16]. - **Import and Inventory**: In October, the import volume of rapeseed remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remained low [22][24][26]. - **Aquaculture Production and Prices**: Aquaculture fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions decreased, but capital inflows were observed, showing a bullish signal [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report points out that the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [12][13]. - The report expects the overall cost to weaken, with an increase in supply pressure this week and a projected increase in production scheduling next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4603 - 4657 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In October 2025, PVC production was 2128120 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 329250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 147710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a small increase in production scheduling [7]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream开工率 was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 37.83%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 42%, a month - on - month increase of 0.799 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 71.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 77.69%, a month - on - month increase of 8.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.50%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2239.75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 0.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Other Aspects - On November 6th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4620 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 10 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Factory inventory was 337968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 252368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 85600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89% [9]. - The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including various price indicators, spreads, inventory data, and downstream开工率 data [15][16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - The report analyzes the calcium carbide method from multiple aspects, including raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and also examines PVC supply trends, demand trends, inventory, and the ethylene method, as well as provides a monthly supply - demand balance table [27][39][44][56][58][61].

Report Overview - Analyst: Wang Mingwei [1] -从业资格号： F0283029 [1] - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 [1] - Date: 2025-11-07 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase. Entering the production cut season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. The basis is 92, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The commercial inventory on September 22 was 1.18 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. The short positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, but entering the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The basis is -32, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price. The port inventory on September 22 was 580,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil. The basis is 286, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The commercial inventory on September 22 was 560,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The inventory-to-sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] -利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are loose [5] Supply - Items include soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [6][8][10][17][19][21][23] Demand - Items include soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption [12][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions predict that the global sugar market will shift from a supply - demand balance to a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. The expected surplus varies among different institutions, such as 740 million tons by Czarnikow, 277 million tons by StoneX, and 153 million tons by Datagro. In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar shows relative resistance while the international sugar price is falling, but the long - term divergence between domestic and international trends is considered unsustainable. The main 01 contract is under pressure around 5500 and is expected to be in a short - term volatile and bearish trend [4][8][35]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply. Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, and ISO estimates a 231,000 - ton supply gap (significantly reduced from the previous forecast). In China, as of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 billion tons, cumulative sales were 10 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and imported 151,400 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5720, and the basis for the 01 contract is 272, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August 2024/25, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the main trend is still bearish, so it is bearish overall [4]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to the decline of international sugar prices, but in the long term, the divergence between domestic and international trends is not sustainable. The main 01 contract is under pressure around 5500 and is expected to be in a short - term volatile and bearish trend [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. For example, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects a supply gap of 20,000 tons (almost balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a 620 - million - ton surplus (another mention is 750 million tons), Datagro expects a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420 - million - ton surplus, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus forecasts a 40 - million - ton surplus, and Green Pool expects a 115 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugar production is expected to remain stable at around 11.2 million tons, imports are expected to be 5 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core Viewpoint The market has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] 3) Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4] - The spot price is 14,350, and the basis is -695, showing a bearish signal [4] - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week-on-week and year-on-year; Qingdao area inventory increased week-on-week and year-on-year, a neutral situation [4] - The 20-day line is downward, and the price is running below the 20-day line, a bearish signal [4] - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, a bearish signal [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [4][6] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing, while Qingdao area inventory has rebounded [14][17] - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [23][29][32] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on November 6th [8] - **Basis**: The basis strengthened on November 6th [35] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market continues to be strong due to tight supply and active restocking by downstream coke enterprises. After the third round of coke price increases, the cost pressure has eased, and demand for high - quality coking coal remains strong. However, some high - priced resources have low downstream acceptance. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the third round of price increases, coke enterprises are optimistic, but high coking coal prices keep profits near the break - even point. Supply remains tight in the short term. With high raw material costs, coke production increases slowly. Terminal pig iron production remains at a medium - high level, and steel mills still have restocking needs. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Supply in major producing areas is tight, with strict environmental and safety controls. Downstream restocking and reduced supply lead to inventory reduction. After the third round of coke price increases, the market is strong [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1430, and the basis is 139.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week, including 781.1 tons in steel mills, 295 tons in ports, and 819.3 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net long, and the long position increases [2]. - **Expectation**: After the third - round price increase of coke, the cost pressure eases, and demand for high - quality coking coal remains strong. However, some high - priced resources have low acceptance, and the price is expected to remain stable [2]. - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: After the third - round price increase, coke enterprises are optimistic, but high coking coal prices keep profits near the break - even point. Supply remains tight in the short term [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1720, and the basis is - 56.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week, including 650.8 tons in steel mills, 195.1 tons in ports, and 42.5 tons in independent coke enterprises [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position decreases [6]. - **Expectation**: High raw material costs slow down production increases. Pig iron production remains at a medium - high level, and steel mills have restocking needs. The price is expected to remain stable [6]. Factors Affecting Prices - **Coking Coal** - **Positive**: Pig iron production increases, and supply is difficult to increase [4]. - **Negative**: Coke and steel enterprises slow down raw material coal procurement, and steel prices are weak [4]. - **Coke** - **Positive**: Pig iron production and blast furnace operating rates increase [8]. - **Negative**: Steel mill profit margins are squeezed, and restocking demand is partially overdrawn [8]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - **Independent Coke Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 74.48% [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2512) are expected to be volatile and tend to be strong in the short - term. The analysis is based on multiple factors including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and technical indicators [2][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, with a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish signal [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,580, and the basis was - 95, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On November 6, the LME zinc inventory increased by 100 tons to 34,100 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 401 tons to 68,022 tons compared to the previous day, presenting a bearish signal [2]. 3.4 Futures Market Quotes (November 6) - For the zinc futures of different delivery months, there were various price changes. For example, the contract 2512 had an opening price of 22,605, a high of 22,685, a low of 22,535, and a closing price of 22,675, with a trading volume of 100,028 lots and a trading value of 1.1302888 billion yuan [3]. 3.5 Domestic Spot Market Quotes (November 6) - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC for domestic production was 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC for imported zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/thousand tons. The price of 0 zinc varied in different regions, such as 22,580 yuan/ton in Shanghai, 22,410 yuan/ton in Guangdong (down 20 yuan/ton), 22,565 yuan/ton in Tianjin, and 22,535 yuan/ton in Zhejiang (down 20 yuan/ton) [4]. 3.6 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (October 27 - November 6, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 16.47 million tons on October 27 to 16.16 million tons on November 6. Compared with October 30, the inventory decreased by 0.16 million tons, and compared with November 3, it decreased by 0.07 million tons [5]. 3.7 SHFE Zinc Warrant Report (November 6) - The total SHFE zinc warrants were 68,022 tons, a decrease of 401 tons compared to the previous day. The decrease mainly occurred in Tianjin, where the warrants of some warehouses decreased [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (November 6) - The total LME zinc inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 29,575 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 4,525 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 13.27% [7]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The planned production value in September was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The production was 1.35% lower than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.80%. The planned production in October was 509,600 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (November 6) - The processing fees for zinc concentrate varied by region. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate was 2,800 yuan/metal ton, while in Shandong, it was 3,100 yuan/metal ton (down 100 yuan/metal ton). The average processing fee for imported 48% grade zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/thousand tons [16]. 3.11 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (November 6) - In the trading volume ranking of the zn2512 contract, Guotai Junan ranked first with a trading volume of 25,895 lots, an increase of 2,921 lots compared to the previous day. In the long - position ranking, CITIC Futures ranked first with 11,353 lots, a decrease of 73 lots compared to the previous day. In the short - position ranking, CITIC Futures also ranked first with 18,208 lots, an increase of 129 lots compared to the previous day [17]. 3.12 Short - term Technical Analysis - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile upward trend, closing with a positive line. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions increased, with the long positions increasing more. Technically, the price closed above the moving - average system, and the moving - average provided strong support. The short - term indicator KDJ declined but remained in the strong area, and the trend indicator showed that the long - side strength increased while the short - side strength decreased, with the long - side strength advantage expanding [19].