证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-11-03投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8322，基差104，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：7900-8300附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The UR2601 contract basis is -45, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6 million tons), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, still bearish. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - Bullish factors include strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, and comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the domestic market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract basis is -45, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6 million tons), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, still bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume is increasing. However, the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1580 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1625 | -2 | Warehouse Receipt | 1455 | -1515 | | Shandong Spot | 1590 | -10 | Basis | -45 | 2 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 166.4 million tons | -17.6 million tons | | Henan Spot | 1580 | 0 | UR01 | 1625 | -2 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 155.4 million tons | -7.6 million tons | | FOB China | 2666 | | UR05 | 1703 | -2 | UR Port Inventory | 11.0 million tons | -10.0 million tons | | | | | UR09 | 1736 | 1 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年11月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-285 偏空 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends of Zhengzhou sugar's main 01 contract is unsustainable. The pressure around 5500 - 5600 increases, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market rises [5][8] - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the long - term positive impact of the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include the increase in global sugar production and the expected surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in external sugar prices, and the intensified import impact [6] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's central - southern region produced 3601.6 million tons of sugar in the current sugar - making season as of the first half of October, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply situation. Czarnikow raised the 25/26 global sugar surplus forecast to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August forecast. StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus, while ISO estimated a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, significantly reduced from the previous prediction. In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data also showed changes. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 15.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5760, and the basis for the 01 contract is 277, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [5] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [5] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5] - **Main Position**: The net short position increased, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply. For example, Green Pool predicted a 5.3% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season, USDA expected a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a surplus. SCA Brasil estimated that the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 25/26 season would be 3910 million tons, and Conab predicted 4060 million tons [8] - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a narrowing gap in the medium - long term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6000. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the tariff on out - of - quota imported raw sugar [8] - **Import and Tariff**: In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 15.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons. From January 1, 2025, the import tariff on syrup and premixed powder was adjusted from 12% to 20% [4][8] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - For methanol 2601, the mainland's inventory is low and coal prices are firm, but the overall start - up is high, and the negative feedback from olefins is emerging. The port is affected by sanctions, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. It is expected that the mainland's price fluctuation range is limited, and the port will maintain high - volatility with both ups and downs this week. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate mainly, and MA2601 will operate in the range of 2200 - 2260 [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the mainland's cost - end support is strengthened, but there is supply pressure in some areas, and the negative feedback from olefins is showing. The port is affected by sanctions, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is bearish, the main position is net short and increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate this week [4] 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some devices are shut down, Iran's methanol start - up is reduced, some acetic acid devices are put into production or plan to be put into production, and northwest CTO plants purchase methanol externally [6] - **Likely to be Bearish**: Previously shut - down devices are restarted, there will be concentrated arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde enters the off - season, MTBE start - up declines significantly, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling goods, and inventory in some production areas is accumulating [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2210 yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis is 2, and the spot premium is over futures. In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim and Jiangsu remains unchanged, CFR China Main Port drops by 5 US dollars/ton, and the import cost drops by 41 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price drops by 49 yuan/ton, and the registered warehouse receipts decrease by 125 [4][8] - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 128.29 million tons, a slight increase of 1.31 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas decreases by 0.53 million tons to 83.83 million tons [4] - **Start - up Rate**: The national weighted average start - up rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest all decline [8] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many plants in Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and losses [55] - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are in different operating states, including restarting, running stably, or under maintenance [56] - **Olefin Plants**: Olefin plants in Northwest, East, Central, and other regions have different operating conditions, some are running stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9055 - 9255 for the 2601 contract [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling will increase in the short - term and is expected to回调 in the medium - term. The demand side, including silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, is expected to recover in the medium - term. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54160 - 55740 for the 2601 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, components are profitable, organic silicon inventory is at a low level, and its production is in a loss state with a comprehensive operating rate of 70.05% and flat compared to the previous week, lower than the historical average [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3141 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 145 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons, and major port inventory increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease compared to the previous week. The scheduled production for October is expected to be 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase compared to the previous week, and inventory was 184,700 tons, a 6.70% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell and component production also have different trends in production and inventory, with components being profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,950 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 30, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2600 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase, and spot prices of different grades remained stable [15]. - Inventory data of different regions and types showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [15]. - Production and operating rates of different regions also showed different changes [15]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase, and prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable or changed slightly [17]. - Inventory, production, and export data of different products also showed different trends [17]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 grades showed different trends over time [19][20]. 3.4 Polysilicon Disk Price Trends - The disk price, trading volume, and basis of polysilicon showed different trends over time [22][23]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Inventory - Inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, showed different trends over time [25][26][27]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production by specification showed different trends over time [29][30][31]. - The operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also showed different trends over time [32][34]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 in Sichuan, Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang showed different trends over time [36][37]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Weekly: Displays the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon and its related products over time [38][39]. - Monthly: Displays the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon and its related products over different months [41][42]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon DMC Price and Production Trends - DMC's daily capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, production, and price showed different trends over time [44][45]. Downstream Price Trends - The prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed different trends over time [46][47][48]. Import - Export and Inventory Trends - DMC's import, export, and inventory showed different trends over time [51][52][53]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy Price and Supply Situation - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, import cost, profit, and import - export situation showed different trends over time [54][55]. Inventory and Production Trends - The monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, operating rates, and social inventory showed different trends over time [57][58]. Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs) - The monthly production, sales of automobiles, and export of aluminum alloy wheel hubs showed different trends over time [59][60][61]. 3.11 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends - The cost, price, inventory, production, operating rate, and demand of polysilicon showed different trends over time [64][65]. Supply - Demand Balance Table - Displays the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon over different months [67][68]. Silicon Wafer Trends - The price, production, inventory, demand, and net export of silicon wafers showed different trends over time [70][71]. Battery Cell Trends - The price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [73][74]. Photovoltaic Component Trends - The price, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components showed different trends over time [76][77]. Photovoltaic Accessory Trends - The price, production, import - export of photovoltaic coatings, films, glass, quartz sand, and solder strips showed different trends over time [79][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and it is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4738 - 4794 [8][9][13]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [13]. - The main influencing factors include both positive and negative aspects. The positives are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negatives are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **基差**: On October 30, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 26 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The situation is neutral [10]. - **库存**: The in - factory inventory was 33.38 tons, a 7.35% decrease from the previous period. The calcium carbide - method factory inventory was 25.21 tons, a 9.02% decrease, and the ethylene - method factory inventory was 8.17 tons, a 1.80% decrease. The social inventory was 55.47 tons, a 0.26% decrease. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.6 days, a 6.66% decrease. The situation is neutral [10]. - **盘面**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. The situation is neutral [10]. - **主力持仓**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing. The situation is bearish [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Supply - In September 2025, the PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% decrease from the previous month. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.57%, with no change from the previous period. The production of calcium carbide - method enterprises was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% decrease, and the production of ethylene - method enterprises was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% increase. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.86%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 35.87%, a 0.61 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 41.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 72.5%, unchanged from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 58.76%, a 2.47 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [8]. Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 1.30% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 1.30% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2373.25 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 2.10% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8]. Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4738 - 4794 [9]. 3. PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, spreads, operating rates, inventories, and other information of different types of PVC [15][16]. 4. PVC Futures Market - **基差走势**: Relevant charts show the historical trends of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [18][19]. - **行情走势**: Charts display the trading volume, price trends, and position changes of PVC futures contracts in 2025 [22]. - **价差分析**: Charts show the historical trends of the spreads of the main contracts [25][26]. 5. PVC Fundamental Analysis Calcium Carbide Method - **兰炭**: Charts show the historical trends of the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production of semi - coke [28][29]. - **电石**: Charts show the historical trends of the mainstream price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide [31][32]. - **液氯和原盐**: Charts show the historical trends of the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt [33][34]. - **烧碱**: Charts show the historical trends of the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory of caustic soda [35][36][38]. PVC Supply - Charts show the historical trends of the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC [40][41][44]. Demand - Charts show the historical trends of the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC [46][48]. - Charts show the historical trends of the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin [50]. - Charts show the historical trends of the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin [52]. - Charts show the historical trends of real estate investment completion, housing construction area, new housing starts, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area [54]. - Charts show the historical trends of social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [56]. Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - method factory inventory, ethylene - method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [57][58]. Ethylene Method - Charts show the historical trends of the import volume of vinyl chloride, ethylene dichloride, PVC export volume, FOB price difference of the ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import price difference [59][60]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Despite the end of the peak demand season, low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term trend lacks clear guidance and remains volatile [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The main risks are the decline in domestic aquaculture demand after the long holiday and the potential increase in imported rapeseed arrivals [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal futures rebound after hitting the bottom, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains at a low level. The price of aquatic fish rises slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [18][20][23] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce the expected supply in China. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has a relatively offsetting impact on rapeseed production, and global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodities [11] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12] - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports [12] 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From October 22nd to 30th, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 2959 to 3026, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 14.86 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2440 to 2530, and the trading volume was mostly 0, except for 0.3 million tons on October 29th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 496 and 523 [13] - **Price Data**: From October 21st to 30th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2321 to 2401, and the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2300 to 2338. The spot price of rapeseed meal (Fujian) ranged from 2460 to 2530 [15] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From October 21st to 30th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 7702 to 3915, with several decreases during the period [17] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, but the funds flowed out [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - LLDPE is expected to trade in a range today, with the plastic main contract fluctuating, the Sino-US negotiation reaching a preliminary consensus, Russian oil facing new sanctions leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the peak season demand for agricultural films continuing, and the industrial inventory at a neutral level [4] - PP is also expected to trade in a range today, with the main contract fluctuating, the Sino-US negotiation reaching a preliminary consensus, Russian oil facing new sanctions leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and downstream peak season demand providing support [6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. On October 30, Sino-US leaders met, the US canceled a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended a 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusted countermeasures accordingly. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply and demand side, the peak season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed stocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6990 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 22, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 466,000 tons (-114,000), neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has decreased, bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade in a range today [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. On October 30, Sino-US leaders met, the US canceled a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended a 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusted countermeasures accordingly. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply and demand side, the demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -21, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 595,000 tons (-84,000), neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to trade in a range today [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: Detailed data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects from 2018 to 2025E are provided, showing trends in capacity growth, production, and consumption [13] - **Polypropylene**: Similar to polyethylene, detailed data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects from 2018 to 2025E are provided, showing trends in capacity growth, production, and consumption [15] Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Spot and futures prices and their changes for LLDPE and PP are provided, including prices in different regions, main contracts, and import prices [8] - **Inventory Data**: Inventory data for LLDPE and PP, including warehouse receipts and comprehensive factory and social inventories, are provided [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.91% from the previous value; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%; the main basis was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.68% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia-alkali method was -92.40 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co-production method was -199 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.94% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, including 41 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [20] - From 2023 to 2025, there was significant new production capacity, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons, and 100 tons actually put into production in 2025 [21] 3.4 Demand for Soda Ash - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.78% [24] - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 16.13 tons, and the operating rate was 76.35%, showing signs of stabilization [27] - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continued to decline [2] 3.5 Soda Ash Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [34] 3.6 Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided a supply-demand balance sheet for soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]