Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil oscillated at a low level. The prices of NYMEX WTI crude oil, ICE Brent crude oil, and INE crude oil futures all declined. The approaching meeting between US and Russian leaders eased investors' concerns about reduced crude oil supply due to "secondary sanctions" on Russia, pressuring oil prices. However, the market remains pessimistic about the medium - and long - term fundamentals of crude oil [3]. - Due to OPEC's production increase causing a sharp drop in oil prices, US shale oil producers are idling drilling platforms and reducing spending, which may lead to a significant decline in US crude oil production [4]. - After the Alaska Summit, geopolitical uncertainties still exist. Macroeconomically, the upcoming release of the Fed meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting may pave the way for a September interest rate cut, providing some support to commodities. Oil prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for the negotiation results [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review - **Price Performance**: NYMEX WTI crude oil futures closed at $62.29 per barrel, down 1.67% for the week; ICE Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.45 per barrel, down 1.31% for the week; INE crude oil futures closed at 484.1 yuan per barrel, down 1.16% for the week [3]. - **Supply - side Information**: OPEC's monthly report showed that OPEC+ crude oil production increased by 335,000 barrels per day to 41.94 million barrels per day in July, but the increase was lower than the production recovery agreement reached by 8 OPEC+ countries. OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day and lowered its forecast for non - OPEC supply growth by the same amount [3]. - **Fund Flow**: In the week ending August 12, the net long positions of speculative traders in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 34,430 contracts to 206,547 contracts; the net long positions of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased by 25,087 contracts to 116,742 contracts [3]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump and Putin held a face - to - face meeting in Alaska. Although Trump said the meeting was "extremely productive" and they reached a consensus on most issues, no final agreement to end the conflict was reached. Putin said the meeting atmosphere was "constructive" and some non - public agreements had been reached [3]. - **US Shale Oil Situation**: US shale oil producers are idling drilling platforms and reducing spending due to OPEC's production increase and falling oil prices. The number of hydraulic fracturing units for shale oil and gas wells dropped to a four - year low last week, and producers cut about $1.8 billion from their capital expenditure plans in two quarters. The EIA predicts that US crude oil production will decline next year [4]. - **US - India Relations**: The US may impose secondary tariffs on India, depending on the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Putin. Tensions between the US and India have intensified as India increased its imports of cheap Russian crude oil after the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 2. Related News - Not provided separately in the content 3. Outlook - Geopolitical uncertainties remain after the Alaska Summit. The upcoming Fed meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting may support commodities. Oil prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for the negotiation results. The recommended short - term trading range is 480 - 510, and long - term long positions can be held with stop - loss plans [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties declined this week. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd dropped from $72.01 to $69.29, a decrease of 3.79% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: Cushing inventory and EIA inventory data are provided, showing the changes in inventory levels over different time periods [10][11]. 5. Position Data - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of speculative traders in WTI crude oil futures decreased from 141,829 contracts on August 5 to 116,742 contracts on August 12, a decrease of 25,087 contracts [17]. - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of speculative traders in ICE Brent crude oil futures decreased from 240,977 contracts on August 5 to 206,547 contracts on August 12, a decrease of 34,430 contracts [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The market continued to rise this week with a good long - position pattern. The fundamentals of natural rubber are bullish. Although the downstream tire operating rate and finished - product inventory are not ideal, the decline of the visible inventory in Qingdao and the firm raw material prices in the producing areas provide support. Considering the upcoming traditional consumption peak season and the absence of new macro - level negatives, the market is expected to enter a seasonally bullish trend. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset and buy on dips [2][3][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Review - The prices of RU2601, NR2510, and BR2509 futures contracts all increased this week. RU2601 rose by 2.28%, NR2510 by 1.97%, and BR2509 by 2.61%. The market continued to recover, with a good long - position pattern. The fundamentals are bullish, and the bullish pattern is expected to continue [3]. 3.2 Spot Market Review - The price of Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned full - latex rubber with 9% tax was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,240 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week. - The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 11,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week [4]. 3.3 Inventory Situation Review - The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 2,859 tons to 213,188 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 3,650 tons to 179,930 tons [5]. 3.4 Market Structure - The basis weakened this week because the futures price increased more [6]. 3.5 Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market continued to rise this week with a good long - position pattern. - The raw material prices in Thailand all increased this week, with the largest increase in cup rubber. - The operating rates of tire enterprises varied. The operating rate of all - steel tires increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased. The inventories of both semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. - The fundamentals of natural rubber are bullish. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset and buy on dips [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices rebounded slightly, with SR2601 returning above 5,600. It is expected to fluctuate between 5,600 - 5,700 in the short - term unless there is a further significant drop in foreign sugar prices [5][6]. - Foreign sugar prices fell back below 17 cents per pound after a brief rebound [6]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, low foreign sugar prices below 17 cents per pound leading to an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, sugar prices rebounded slightly, with SR2601 returning above 5,600. Due to SR2601 having already factored in the bearish expectations in advance and the decline being almost complete, the price is close to the cost of imported sugar with out - of - quota tariffs. As of the end of July in the current Brazilian crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 19.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [5]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - Bullish factors: good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors: increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, low foreign sugar prices below 17 cents per pound leading to an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No specific content for "Today's Focus" is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. Green Pool predicts a surplus of 2.7 million tons with a production of 20.2 million tons; USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons with a production of 18.9318 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 780,000 tons; Datagro predicts a surplus of 258,000 tons [36]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Imported Sugar Costs**: From July 2024 to July 2025, the cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariffs decreased overall. In July 2025, with an ICE raw sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the refined and tax - paid cost was 5,600 - 5,650 yuan per ton [45]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data content is provided in the report.

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Weekly Report (8.11 - 8.15) - Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - This week, cotton prices rebounded, with the 01 contract reclaiming the 14,000 mark. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak has strengthened market expectations. Unless initial orders are scarce, short - term trends are likely to be strong, though a rise - then - fall scenario is possible [4]. - The USDA's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should be watched for its battle at the 14,000 mark. If it stabilizes above 14,000, there is potential for further upward movement; otherwise, if it drops below 14,000, the subsequent trend will be weak [5]. - Bullish factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year. Bearish factors are the postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [6]. Summary by Catalog 1. Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices rebounded, with the 01 contract back above 14,000. The ICAC's August report shows 25/26 annual production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons. The USDA's August report indicates 25/26 annual production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. In June, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, an 82.1% year - on - year decrease, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 25/26 forecast shows production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. 2. Daily Hints - The USDA's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should be watched for its battle at the 14,000 mark. If it stabilizes above 14,000, there is potential for further upward movement; otherwise, if it drops below 14,000, the subsequent trend will be weak [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Bullish factors: Reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year. Bearish factors: Postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: For 2024/25, production in China decreased by 10.9 tons year - on - year, India decreased by 10.8 tons, Brazil increased by 27.3 tons, etc. Consumption in China decreased by 10.9 tons year - on - year, Pakistan increased by 2.2 tons, etc. [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast**: For 2025/26, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [15]. 5. Position Data - No position data provided in the report

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, international crude oil trended downward, and fuel oil prices mostly fluctuated lower. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,709 yuan/ton, down 2.06% for the week, while low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,484 yuan/ton, up 0.87% for the week [5]. - Ample supply continues to suppress the fundamental of the low - sulfur fuel oil market. Traders expect a surge in Western arbitrage cargoes to boost inventories in Singapore. Due to the short - term inventory increase expectation, the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has fallen to the lowest discount level in more than four months. Despite the continuous closure of the arbitrage window for compliant 0.5% sulfur marine fuel from Northwest Europe to Singapore, low - sulfur blending components from the market west of Suez still flow in continuously. Meanwhile, weak downstream demand will continue to suppress the market fundamentals in the coming weeks [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, although the immediate supply is sufficient and the seasonal public demand weakens, which continues to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market, the premium of downstream high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is boosted by stable demand and moderate shipping schedules. Additionally, the expected supply reduction from September may support the market [5]. - Next week, international crude oil prices may have room to fluctuate higher, and Singapore fuel oil prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly following the market. Operationally, trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,650 - 2,800 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,400 - 3,550 range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints - International crude oil and fuel oil price trends last week, and price changes of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [5]. - Analysis of supply, demand, and price trends of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets, and trading suggestions for next week [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The FU main contract's previous value was 2,823, the current value is 2,730, down 93 or 3.29%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3,540, the current value is 3,465, down 76 or 2.14% [6]. - Spot prices: Different types of fuel oils in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East showed small price changes, with increases or decreases ranging from - 0.19% to 0.40% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Charts show Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross profit from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from May 28 to August 13 shows changes in inventory levels and increases or decreases [12]. - Charts show Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends [13][15]. 3.5 Spread Data - A chart shows the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur futures [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of a bearish macro - environment and a slight weakening of the methanol supply - demand fundamentals, the domestic methanol market is expected to experience weak oscillations next week, with the possibility of local price drops. Inland, due to the pessimistic sentiment among industry players caused by the macro - situation and the lack of further positive factors on the demand side, long - term contract traders are more willing to sell. However, the tight inventory of methanol enterprises in inland areas, especially in production regions, will provide some support for prices. It is expected that the inland market will show a weakening and oscillating trend. In ports, the significant fluctuations of coking coal and coke have had a negative impact on the methanol futures and spot markets. The positive factors supporting the market have reversed. With the expected continuous increase in port inventory and the lack of demand from major downstream industries, the port market is expected to remain in an oscillating state, waiting for positive guidance from policies and news [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - In a bearish macro - environment and with slightly weakening supply - demand fundamentals, the domestic methanol market is predicted to have a weak oscillation next week, with potential local price declines. Inland markets may weaken and oscillate, while port markets will likely oscillate and await positive news [5]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From August 8th to August 15th, the prices of methanol in different regions showed different trends. In Jiangsu, the price dropped from 2380 yuan/ton to 2325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.31%. In Lunan, the price remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton. In Hebei, the price increased from 2275 yuan/ton to 2300 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.10%. In Inner Mongolia, the price fluctuated slightly, with a weekly increase of 0.24%. In Fujian, the price dropped from 2395 yuan/ton to 2340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.30% [6]. Methanol Basis - From August 8th to August 15th, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 2.31%, while the futures price increased by 1.22%. The basis changed from - 3 yuan/ton to - 87 yuan/ton [8]. Methanol Production Profits by Process - For coal - based methanol production, the profit decreased from 265 yuan/ton on August 8th to 248 yuan/ton on August 15th, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. For natural - gas - based methanol production, the profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton. For coke - oven - gas - based methanol production, the profit increased from 460 yuan/ton on August 8th to 470 yuan/ton on August 15th, an increase of 325 yuan/ton (this may be a data error in the report, assuming it should be an increase of 10 yuan/ton) [10]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - Nationally, the methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a decrease of 3.81%. In the northwest region, the load decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% [12]. Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - From August 8th to August 15th, the CFR China price decreased from 270 dollars/ton to 264 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.22%. The CFR Southeast Asia price decreased from 333.5 dollars/ton to 324.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.70%. The price spread between CFR Southeast Asia and CFR China changed from - 63.5 dollars/ton to - 60.5 dollars/ton [15]. Methanol Import Spread - From August 8th to August 15th, the spot price of methanol decreased by 2.31%, the import cost decreased by 2.14%, and the import spread changed from - 4 yuan/ton to - 8 yuan/ton [18]. Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - From August 8th to August 15th, the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged, with a weekly change of 0.00% [25]. Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit decreased from - 202 yuan/ton to - 214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The load increased from 24.52% last week to 25.42% this week, an increase of 0.90% [26]. - Dimethyl Ether: The production profit decreased from 320 yuan/ton to 284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The load increased from 8.06% last week to 8.88% this week, an increase of 0.82% [28]. - Acetic Acid: The production profit increased from - 59 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The load increased from 80.48% last week to 82.42% this week, an increase of 1.94% [34]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased from - 916 yuan/ton on August 8th to - 740 yuan/ton on August 15th, with an increase of 176 yuan/ton. The MTO/MTP device load decreased from 79.84% last week to 79.69%, a decrease of 0.15% [38]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased from 51.08 to 56.33, an increase of 5.25. In the South China port, the inventory increased from 29.25 to 32.78, an increase of 3.53 [39]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From August 8th to August 15th, the number of warehouse receipts increased from 8688 to 10968, a growth of 26.24%. The effective forecast decreased from 1100 to 0, a decrease of 100.00% [43]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Multiple domestic methanol enterprises are in the process of maintenance or have maintenance plans. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat (100,000 - ton annual capacity, coke - oven gas as raw material) started maintenance in early November 2024 and the end date is to be determined; Qinghai Zhonghao (600,000 - ton annual capacity, natural gas as raw material) has been under maintenance from October 23, 2024, to the end of March 2025 [45]. Overseas Methanol Device Status - Many overseas methanol devices are in different operating states. Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting, such as Marjan, Kaveh, etc. Some devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally [46]. Olefin Device Status - Some olefin devices and their supporting methanol devices are under maintenance or operating stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices have been under maintenance since March 15th, expected to last for 45 days. Some devices in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and other regions are operating stably [47].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Last week, steel and ore prices remained in a high - level oscillatory pattern, and the market was unable to break this situation. The marginal effect of news such as capacity reduction and military parade began to decline, and market focus returned to fundamentals. The weekly apparent demand for rebar decreased and was lower than the same period last year, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils rebounded, higher than both the same period last year and the average of the past five years. The increase in iron ore port inventory pressured the market, but overall molten iron production increased, arrivals decreased, and raw material prices were firm, providing strong support at the lower end. In the future, policies remain the key to the market trend. Before the policies are clear, no trending market is expected, and it is advisable to maintain a high - level oscillatory mindset [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price rose from 770 yuan/wet ton to 772 yuan/wet ton; Ba Hun powder price increased from 809 yuan/wet ton to 810 yuan/wet ton. PB powder spot landing profit rose from - 11.36 yuan/wet ton to - 10.49 yuan/wet ton, and Ba Hun powder spot landing profit increased from 6.31 yuan/wet ton to 7.33 yuan/wet ton. Australian shipments to China decreased by 122.8 tons to 1365.6 tons, while Brazilian shipments to China increased by 104.7 tons to 847.4 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 114.3 tons to 14381.57 tons, arrivals decreased by 50.8 tons to 2571.6 tons, and port clearance volume increased by 10.35 tons to 346.8 tons. Iron ore port trading volume increased by 35.9 tons to 105.6 tons, daily average molten iron production increased by 0.34 tons to 240.66 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6% to 65.8% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: Shanghai rebar price dropped from 3340 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, while Shanghai hot - rolled coil price rose from 3450 yuan/ton to 3460 yuan/ton. Blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, and electric furnace operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39%. Rebar blast furnace profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 121 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 151 yuan/ton, and rebar electric furnace profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton. Rebar weekly output decreased by 0.73 tons to 220.45 tons, and hot - rolled coil weekly output increased by 0.7 tons to 315.59 tons. Rebar weekly social inventory increased by 26.45 tons to 414.93 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory decreased by 1.26 tons to 277.49 tons. Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased by 4.06 tons to 172.26 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory increased by 2.1 tons to 79.98 tons. Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased by 20.85 tons to 189.94 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption increased by 8.64 tons to 314.85 tons, and building material trading volume increased by 11408 tons to 105050 tons [35][37]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: Blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and electric furnace operating rate increased [35]. - **Output**: Rebar weekly output decreased slightly, while hot - rolled coil weekly output increased slightly [35]. - **Profit**: Steel product profits generally decreased, including rebar blast furnace profit, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit, and rebar electric furnace profit [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar social and enterprise inventories increased, while hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly and enterprise inventory increased [37]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Rebar apparent consumption decreased, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption increased [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, there are factors of cost - upward support and manufacturers' plans for shutdown and production cuts, but there are also issues such as slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The downward trend is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9010 [6][12][13]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. Demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51205 - 54275 [8][9][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 87,000 tons, a 3.57% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased. The inventory of polysilicon is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. The inventory of silicone is at a low level, with a production profit of 392 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 75.05%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is at a high level, with an import loss of 502 yuan/ton. The freight and profit of A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi is 581.84 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum is 53%, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week, at a low level [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2939 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On August 15, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 395 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 545,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises is 171,150 tons, a 0.65% increase from the previous week. The inventory of major ports is 117,000 tons, a 0.84% decrease from the previous week, which is bearish [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes below MA20, which is neutral [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is increasing and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is increasing. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9010 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production of polysilicon was 29,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week. The planned production for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of silicon wafers was 12.1GW, a 0.66% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 198,000 tons, a 3.61% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The planned production for August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. In July, the production of battery cells was 58.19GW, a 0.20% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cells in external sales factories was 4.98GW, a 29.01% increase from the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The planned production for August is 59.15GW, a 1.64% increase from the previous month. In July, the production of components was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month. The expected production of components in August is 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,280 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9720 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On August 15, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 5740 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 242,000 tons, a 3.86% increase from the previous week, at a high level in the same historical period, which is neutral [10]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20, which is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing, which is bullish [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. Demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51205 - 54275 [10]. Other Key Points - **Industrial Silicon Market Overview**: The report provides detailed data on the prices, production, inventory, and other aspects of different contracts of industrial silicon, as well as the prices, production, and inventory of its downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [16][18]. - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends of Industrial Silicon**: It shows the trends of the basis of the main contract of industrial silicon and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: It presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [24]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: It shows the production and capacity utilization trends of sample enterprises of industrial silicon [27]. - **Main Production Area Electricity Price Trends**: It shows the electricity price trends in main production areas such as Yunnan Nujiang, Sichuan Liangshan, and Xinjiang Turpan [32]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Area Trends**: It shows the cost - profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: They show the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon [35][38]. - **Downstream of Industrial Silicon - Organic Silicon**: It includes the price and production trends of DMC, the price trends of downstream products, and the import - export and inventory trends [41][43][46]. - **Downstream of Industrial Silicon - Aluminum Alloy**: It includes the price and supply situation, inventory and production trends, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) [49][52][54]. - **Downstream of Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon**: It includes the cost and price trends, supply - demand balance sheet, silicon wafer trends, and battery cell trends [57][60][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of ferrosilicon manganese is further supported by the high prices of manganese ore and coke, as well as the increase in freight for northern manganese ore due to transportation restrictions during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin in late August [2]. - The supply side shows positive production sentiment in alloy plants in both the north and south. Factories in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have relatively low spot inventories and mainly focus on fulfilling forward orders. The start - up rates in Guangxi and Yunnan are gradually rising [2]. - The demand side is supported by the increase in both the procurement volume and price by Hegang Group in August. Hegang's August silicon - manganese procurement price is 6,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the first inquiry and 350 yuan from July, and the procurement volume is 16,100 tons, up from 14,600 tons in July [2]. - Overall, the spot price rose significantly this week driven by cost and demand, and the market sentiment is positive. It is expected that the short - term price of ferrosilicon manganese will remain firm, and the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: Data on the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises and the annual production of silicon - manganese in different regions of China are presented [7][8]. - **Production - Annual**: No specific text summary content, but annual production data are shown [9]. - **Production - Weekly, Monthly, and Start - up Rate**: Data on the weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly start - up rate of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises are provided [11]. - **Production - Regional Production**: Monthly production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as daily average production data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are presented [12][13]. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tendering and Procurement Price**: The monthly procurement prices of silicon - manganese by multiple steel companies are shown [16]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: Data on the weekly daily average hot metal production and weekly profitability rate of 247 Chinese steel enterprises are provided [18]. Manganese Silicon Import and Export - Import and export data of ferrosilicon manganese in China are presented, including monthly export and import quantities [20]. Manganese Silicon Inventory - Data on the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China and the monthly average available days of inventory in different regions are provided [22]. Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore - Import Volume**: Monthly import volume data of manganese ore from different sources and trade methods are presented [24]. - **Manganese Ore - Port Inventory and Available Days**: Data on the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China and different ports, as well as the weekly average available days of inventory, are provided [26]. - **Manganese Ore - High - Grade Ore Port Inventory**: Weekly port inventory data of high - grade manganese ore from different origins in different ports are presented [28]. - **Manganese Ore - Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Daily price data of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port are provided [29]. - **Regional Cost**: Daily cost data of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented [30]. Manganese Silicon Profit - Daily profit data of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than the historical average level, and the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The price of asphalt 2510 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3438 - 3484 [8][10][15]. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support for asphalt prices, but the demand for high - priced asphalt is insufficient, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 35.2349%, a month - on - month increase of 1.797 percentage points. The production of sample enterprises increased, raising the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 32.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 17.1004%, a month - on - month increase of 1.23 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 29.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20 percentage points [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 498.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 904.0171 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.90%. The loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - **Other Factors**: On August 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3620 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 159 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory was 1343000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%; the in - plant inventory was 711000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.71%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 190000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The MA20 of the disk was downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main contract was short, and the short position increased [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's market overview, including the prices, changes, and inventory data of different asphalt contracts, as well as the profit data of asphalt coking and the number of registered warehouse receipts [17][18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt [39][42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and estimated maintenance loss volume [45][47][50][54][57][60][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory inventory ratio [65][69][73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [76][79][81]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88][92][97][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production [108][109].