Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the short - term market is expected to warm up. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is - 47, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish. The short - term price of the urea main contract is expected to warm up, and it is predicted that UR will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production. The bearish factor is domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate decline from high levels, comprehensive inventory slightly drops. Agricultural demand rebounds due to weather, industrial demand is weak, with falling operating rates for compound fertilizers and melamine. Export volume increases with a large but decreasing price difference. Domestic market is oversupplied, but short - term market may warm up. Spot price of delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: UR2601 contract basis is - 47, premium/discount ratio is - 3.0%, bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: Short - term price of the urea main contract is expected to warm up, and it is predicted that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Strong international prices, increasing exports, short - term decline in daily production [5]. - **Bearish**: Domestic oversupply [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | Spot price of delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1600 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1580 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2662 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | UR01 contract price is 1627 (- 17), UR05 contract price is 1705 (- 12), UR09 contract price is 1735 (- 12), UR2601 contract basis is - 47, premium/discount ratio is - 3.0% [4][6]. | | **Inventory** | UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), warehouse receipts are 2970 (unchanged), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons (unchanged), UR port inventory is 210,000 tons (unchanged) [4][6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] |

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders reached significant consensus, with short - term positive effects materialized and the index undergoing a pull - back adjustment, and the premium of index futures increased. The margin trading balance was 2488.5 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan. The IH2512 had a premium of 1.61 points, and the IF2512 had a discount of 9.91 points. The market order was IH>IC>IF>IM, and IH, IF, IC, and IM were above the 20 - day moving average. The long positions of IF and IC main contracts decreased, while those of IH increased. After the Fourth Plenary Session, the technology sector strengthened, and the index rebounded. Currently, it is recommended to appropriately reduce positions on days of significant intraday gains, and the index is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Index Futures Premium and Discount**: IC2512 had a discount of 86.71 points, IM2512 had a discount of 120.68 points, indicating a bearish signal. IH2512 had a premium of 1.61 points, and IF2512 had a discount of 9.91 points, showing a neutral situation [3]. - **Index Futures Data**: Data on contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividend yields, spreads, premium/discount ratios, annualized premiums/discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms of IH, IF, IC, and IM from 2025 to 2026 were provided [4]. - **Base and Spread Charts**: Base and spread charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 500 were presented, with data sourced from Wind Information and compiled by Dayue Futures [5][8]. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Price Changes**: Daily price change data of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, etc. were shown [11]. - **Style Index Daily Price Changes**: Daily price change data of style indexes including 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, etc. were provided [14]. - **Industry Index Daily Price Changes**: Daily price change data of industry indexes such as Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (Shenwan), Basic Chemicals (Shenwan), etc. were given [18]. Market Structure - **AH Share Premium/Discount**: The chart of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index from 2025/02/05 to 2025/10/30 was presented [21]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: The PE (TTM) chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index from 2004 to 2025 was shown [23]. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: The PB chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index from 2004 to 2025 was presented [25]. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflows**: The chart of A - share fund net inflows and the CSI 300 from 2021 to 2025 was shown [27]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The chart of margin trading balance and the CSI 300 from 2021 to 2025 was presented [29]. - **Northbound Capital Inflows**: The chart of northbound capital net inflows from 2021 to 2024 was shown [31]. - **Stock Unlock**: No specific content was provided, only the data source was mentioned [34]. - **Funding Cost**: The chart of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week from 2025/02/05 to 2025/10/30 was presented [37]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The turnover rate (free - floating market value) charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index were shown [40][43]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: No specific content was provided, only the data source was mentioned [46]. Other Indicators - **Index Dividend Yield and 10 - Year Treasury Yield**: The chart of the dividend yields of the CSI 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 and the 10 - year treasury yield from 2015 to 2025 was presented [49]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The chart of the US dollar - to - Renminbi exchange rate from 2021 to 2025 was shown [51]. - **New Account Openings and Shanghai Composite Index Tracking**: No specific content was provided. - **Newly Established Fund Scale Changes**: No specific content was provided for the newly established scale changes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds [55][57][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2960 - 3020. The US soybean market is affected by the preliminary Sino - US agreement and technical buying, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean harvest weather. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean trend, but high imports in October and spot price discounts suppress the market, likely to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The US soybean market is affected by trade negotiation signals and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean market is supported by the US soybean trend and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports, but high imports and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the market [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt There is no specific content provided for the daily prompt in the given text. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties remain in Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean weather. The US soybean market will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills declined from a high level in October. The soybean meal market will return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations [13]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continued to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations will keep the soybean meal market oscillating in the short term [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: High volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: The high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production, suppress price expectations [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2940, with a basis of - 54, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 3, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. Other Market - Related Information - **Price and Transaction Data**: The report provides the trading prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from October 22 to 30, as well as the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from October 22 to 30 [16][18]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: It shows the warehouse receipt data of soybeans and soybean meal from October 21 to 30, including changes compared to the previous day [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - **Sowing and Growth Progress**: The sowing and growth progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24), the US (2024), and Brazil (2024/25) are presented, including sowing rate, emergence rate, good - quality rate, etc. [34][35][39]. - **USDA Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 are provided, including data on planting area, yield, production, ending inventory, and exports [43]. - **Other Market Conditions**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from a high level in October but increased year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills remained high, and the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level [44][46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation. The supply side has a high - level production, with the predicted increase in both production and import volume in the next month. The demand side is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. Cost - wise, the cost of some ore - sourced materials is rising, resulting in losses, while the cost of the salt - lake side is low with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Overall, due to capacity mismatch leading to strong supply and weak demand, the downward trend is difficult to change. The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 82,480 - 84,320 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% week - on - week decrease, but higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in the next month will be 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 19,597 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 22,000 tons, a 12.26% increase [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,347 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,592 tons, a 3.50% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 80,456 yuan/ton, a 1.11% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,583 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 85,678 yuan/ton, a 1.37% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 8,830 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On October 30, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 3,400 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 32,051 tons, a 4.83% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 53,288 tons, a 3.59% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, and the basis of most contracts has changed, with the spot generally at a discount to the futures. The prices of upstream lithium ores, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries have also changed to different extents [13]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate and related materials have changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the monthly export has also increased significantly [16]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed, with the overall inventory showing a downward trend [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The supply of domestic large - scale pig farms has begun to decrease after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, which supports the short - term price of live pigs. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will both decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may experience a double - decline in supply and demand this week, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and maintaining a range - bound pattern in the medium term. The LH2601 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,700 - 12,100 [8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided for daily prompt. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market has entered a slack season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price of live pigs is weak in the short term and maintains a range - bound pattern in the medium term [10]. - Pork demand has weakened in the short term after the festivals, but the spot price of live pigs has returned to an oscillating state due to reduced supply. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [10]. - The loss of domestic pig - farming profits has recently widened, and the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has weakened in the short term. The double - decline in supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The spot price of live pigs has remained stable after the National Day, and the futures have generally returned to a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The domestic live pig supply has entered a slack season after the long holiday, and the continued decline space of the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. - **Bearish factors**: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war, and the domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand**: In the supply aspect, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. In the demand aspect, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [8]. - **Base difference**: The national average spot price is 12,510 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the 2601 contract is 630 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is high, with refineries reducing production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply may increase next week. The total planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.0777%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31 percentage points. The total sample enterprise output is 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.53%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 676,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.74% [8]. - The demand is weak, with the current demand below the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 9.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 12.0898%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 32%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 percentage points [8]. - The cost support is weakening. The daily asphalt processing profit is - 567.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 687.0586 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - The inventory shows a mixed trend. The social inventory is 1.005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%; the in - plant inventory is 710,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; the diluted asphalt inventory is 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. The social inventory and in - plant inventory are continuously decreasing, while the port inventory is continuously increasing [8]. - The market is expected to have a narrow - range shock in the short term. The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3232 - 3276 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: The supply pressure is high. Although refineries have reduced production this week, supply may increase next week. The planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 shows a significant month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand - side**: The demand is sluggish, with the开工 rates of various types of asphalt below the historical average, indicating that the overall demand recovery is weak [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost support is weakening due to the increase in asphalt processing losses and the decrease in the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking, along with the weakening of crude oil [8]. - **Inventory**: The social and in - plant inventories are decreasing, while the port inventory is increasing [8]. - **Market Expectation**: The asphalt market is expected to have a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 fluctuating between 3232 and 3276 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 20 yuan to 3254 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%. The social inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 1.005 million tons, a decrease of 4.38%. The in - plant inventory decreased by 1.7 tons to 710,000 tons, a decrease of 2.34% [15]. - **Analysis of Basis, Spread, and Price Ratios**: - **Basis**: On October 30, the Shandong spot price was 3270 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 16 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Spread**: The report provides the spread trends of asphalt contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12), asphalt - crude oil prices, and asphalt - crude oil - fuel oil price ratios, which can help investors understand the price relationships between different contracts and products [20][23][30]. - **Price Ratios**: The price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil are presented, which are important for analyzing the relative value of different products [30]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: - **Profit Analysis**: The asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt are analyzed, showing the profitability of asphalt production and its relationship with coking [36][39]. - **Supply - side**: It includes aspects such as the shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, output, price of Ma Rui crude oil, and production capacity utilization rate. For example, the weekly shipment volume of sample enterprises is 290,660 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.73% [42]. - **Inventory**: It covers the exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio. The social inventory and in - plant inventory are decreasing, while the port inventory of diluted asphalt is increasing [62][66][69]. - **Import and Export**: The export and import trends of asphalt are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [72]. - **Demand - side**: It includes the output of petroleum coke, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, sales of asphalt - related machinery), and asphalt开工 rates. The overall demand is weak, with most asphalt开工 rates below the historical average [78][81][84]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the relationship between supply and demand in different months of 2024 - 2025, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and output [103][104].

证券代码：839979 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8352，基差184，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：7900-8300附近区间震荡 油脂早报 2025-10-31投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is limited due to national macro - regulation. The positive coke price and increasing downstream demand have led to a good market sentiment. The overall inventory is decreasing. However, considering the thin profit of coke and steel enterprises, the short - term price of coking coal is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Coke**: The high price of coking coal squeezes the profit of coke enterprises, and the production enthusiasm is restricted. With the production reduction and maintenance policies of steel mills in Tangshan, the supply and demand of the coke market have declined slightly. But due to the replenishment demand of steel mills, the coke inventory is low, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals are positive as supply is limited and demand is picking up. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The inventory is decreasing. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position is net long but with a decrease in long positions. The short - term price is expected to be stable [3][4]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals show a supply contraction trend due to cost pressure. The basis indicates that the spot price is lower than the futures price. The inventory is decreasing. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The short - term price is expected to be stable [8][9]. Price - On October 30th (17:30), most of the port metallurgical coke prices from Shanxi showed an upward trend, with an increase of 10 yuan for some varieties [12]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [21]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [30]. Other Indicators - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Different institutions have varying forecasts for the global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season, with most predicting an oversupply. - In the short - term, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. In the long - run, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market around 5500 for the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 01 increases. - The domestic sugar market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of US cola. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, expected oversupply in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and increased import impact [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August forecast. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277 million tons in the 2025/26 season, while ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 billion tons, cumulative sugar sales were 10 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. This is a bearish signal [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5780, and the basis for the 01 contract is 308, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August 2024/25, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: Recently, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. In the long - run, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market around 5500 for the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 01 increases [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply. ISO predicts a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons, Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 million tons, Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 million tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 40 million tons, and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 115 million tons [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugar production is expected to remain stable at around 11.2 billion tons, imports are expected to be 5 billion tons, consumption is expected to be 15.9 billion tons, and the balance change is expected to be 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content is provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the inter - bank bond market is warm, with spot bond yields declining by about 1bp. The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the 30 - year main contract increased by 0.19%. The tax payment period has basically ended, and the inter - bank money market has become more relaxed, with the overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions dropping by more than 9bp to a low of 1.31%. The fourth - quarter bond market faces a generally favorable fundamental and policy environment but remains in a volatile pattern [3]. - The central bank has continued to increase the volume of MLF renewals for the 8th consecutive month. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but was still below the boom - bust line. The CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase in core CPI expanded for the 5th consecutive month. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level, and the M2 growth rate expanded due to the "migration of RMB deposits". The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - The inter - bank bond market sentiment is warm, spot bond yields decline, and the main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly rise. The tax payment period ends, and the money market eases. The market is highly concerned about the China - US summit [3]. 3.2 Fund Flow - On October 30, the People's Bank of China conducted 3426 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 2125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 1301 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of TS main contract is - 0.0721, indicating that the spot bond is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of TF main contract is - 0.0427, also bearish. The basis of T main contract is 0.1084, indicating that the spot bond is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The basis of TL main contract is 0.0476, also bullish [3]. 3.4 Inventory - The balance of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T are 1359.4 billion yuan, 1493.5 billion yuan, and 2359.9 billion yuan respectively, which is neutral [4]. 3.5 Market Trends - The TS main contract is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish. The TF main contract is also above the 20 - day moving average with an upward 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The T main contract is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. 3.6 Main Positions - The TS main contract has a net long position, and the long position increases. The TF main contract has a net long position, and the long position increases. The T main contract has a net long position, but the long position decreases [5]. 3.7 Market Quotes | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.630 | 0.05% | 68,993 | 245,110 | - 1,169 | 220017.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 106.065 | 0.00% | 54,366 | 149,269 | 160 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.554 | - 0.01% | 33,991 | 73,541 | 2,319 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 116.15 | 0.19% | 128,226 | 144,078 | - 1,963 | 220008.IB | [8]