Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel 2512), it is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average, with some support from the cost line below. The overall situation is affected by macro - factors, with a long - term surplus pattern. The short - term situation is affected by factors such as nickel ore price, nickel iron price, and inventory [2]. - For Stainless Steel (Stainless Steel 2512), it is expected to operate with wide fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average. The spot price has declined, and the cost line has loosened downward [4]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Nickel Price**: On October 31, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan, down 390 yuan from the previous day; LME Nickel was at 15,250 yuan, unchanged. The spot prices of various nickel types all decreased slightly. For example, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,950 yuan, down 250 yuan [11]. - **Stainless Steel Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan on October 31, down 70 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions also decreased [11]. 2. Inventory Information - **Nickel Inventory**: As of October 31, LME nickel inventory was 252,102 tons, an increase of 462 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,388 tons, a decrease of 144 tons. The total inventory increased by 318 tons [14]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On October 31, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 306,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,031,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,700 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 651,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 73,657 tons, a decrease of 120 tons [19][20]. 3. Cost Information - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Price**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF with different grades remained unchanged on October 31 compared to the previous day. The price of high - nickel ferronickel decreased slightly, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged. The sea freight also remained stable [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,852 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,012 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,669 yuan [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price was 122,291 yuan/ton [28]. 4. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The price of nickel ore is firm, which provides some support to the cost line [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Both domestic and overseas inventories are accumulating [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways with an upward bias" rating for SHFE Zinc ZN2512 [2][19] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw SHFE Zinc rebound sideways, closing with a positive candlestick and shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with long positions decreasing more. It was a volume - shrinking rebound, indicating short - term sideways rebound potential. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system with strong support. Short - term indicators KDJ declined while in the strong zone, and the trend indicator rose, with long - side strength increasing and short - side strength decreasing, and the two sides starting to stalemate [19] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, with a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August, it was 8.4457 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2] Basis - The spot price was 22,340, and the basis was - 15, indicating a neutral situation [2] Inventory - On October 31, LME zinc inventory increased by 400 tons to 35,300 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 650 tons to 67,774 tons compared to the previous day, showing a bearish sign [2] Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes - On October 31, the total trading volume of zinc futures was 142,461 lots, with a total trading value of 1.59269604 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 211,109 lots, a decrease of 3,692 lots [3] Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes - On October 31, the domestic zinc concentrate spot TC for domestic ore was 3,200 yuan/metal ton, unchanged; for imported ore, it was 100 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions showed an upward trend [4] National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From October 20 to October 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 0.03 tons compared to October 23 and decreased by 0.15 tons compared to October 27 [5] Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report - On October 31, the total zinc warrants on the SHFE were 67,774 tons, an increase of 650 tons, mainly from the increase in Tianjin warrants [6] LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics - On October 31, the total LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared to the previous day [7] National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On October 31, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities all increased by 30 yuan/ton [9] National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 31, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters all increased by 30 yuan/ton [12] Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production value was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production for October was 509,600 tons [15] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 31, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% - grade ore in different regions were between 3,000 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% - grade ore processing fee was 100 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/dry ton [17] SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the contract zn2512 on October 31, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 150,088 lots, a decrease of 24,859 lots compared to the previous day. The total long positions were 79,793 lots, a decrease of 4,230 lots, and the total short positions were 77,694 lots, a decrease of 1,393 lots [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, affected by the industry anti - involution symposium and the full release of downstream polyester production, the PTA disk was significantly boosted, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, due to some contract merchants' active replenishment, the spot basis was at a high level this week. The supply surplus expectation persists, but there is weak support for MEG around 4000 yuan/ton on the disk. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be weakly sorted out in the near future, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, transactions in early November were at 01 - 70, with some slightly lower at 01 - 75, and the price negotiation range was around 4485 - 4540. Transactions in mid - and late - November were at 01 - 70, with some slightly lower. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 71, considered neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4510, the basis of the 01 contract is - 76, and the futures is at a premium, considered neutral [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period, considered bullish [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, considered bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: Net short position with an increase in short positions, considered bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Affected by the industry anti - involution symposium and the full release of downstream polyester production, the PTA disk was significantly boosted, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted out, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was narrowly sorted out, and the spot basis weakened in the afternoon. Next - week's spot transactions fell back to a premium of 73 - 75 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the outer - disk center of ethylene glycol was sorted out at a low level, and recent cargo negotiations were carried out at 482 - 486 US dollars/ton, with weak market negotiations. The negotiation ranges for domestic and foreign transactions were 4087 - 4126 yuan/ton and 481 - 487 US dollars/ton respectively, considered neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4111, the basis of the 01 contract is 93, and the futures is at a discount, considered neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared to the previous period, considered bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, considered bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: Net short position with an increase in short positions, considered bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Due to some contract merchants' active replenishment, the spot basis was at a high level this week. The supply surplus expectation persists, but there is weak support for MEG around 4000 yuan/ton on the disk. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be weakly sorted out in the near future, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [6]. 3. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: A 3 - million - ton PTA new device in East China was put into production last weekend and has now produced products [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: The 3.6 - million - ton load of Yisheng New Materials has been fully increased, and the loads of the 3.2 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang and the 2.5 - million - ton device of Weilian Chemical have been increased [9]. 4. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the disk rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, export, and inventory data [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, export, and inventory data [12]. 6. Price Data - Provides price data for PTA, MEG, and related products on October 31 and 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, and processing fees [13]. 7. Other Data - Also includes data on bottle - grade PET prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, as well as data on PTA and MEG basis, spreads, inventory analysis, and polyester upstream and downstream operating rates [17][18][22][29][32][41][52][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Downstream coking and steel enterprises have low inventories and stable demand, with high pig iron production and limited motivation for steel mills to cut production. However, due to the large increase in coal prices and pressure on profits, coking enterprises have limited room to increase production, and some have slightly reduced production, affecting the release of raw material coal demand. It is expected that coking coal prices will remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: Coking enterprises are facing profit pressure and are restricted by environmental protection policies, so their short - term production is on a downward trend. Downstream steel mills have a relatively high daily average pig iron production and still have some restocking needs. Some steel mills affected by environmental protection restrictions will soon lift the restrictions, and the subsequent procurement demand of steel mills is expected to pick up. Coupled with the strong support of coking coal prices at the raw material end, it is expected that coke prices will remain stable in the short term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The current supply in the producing areas has not increased significantly, and coal mines are strongly willing to hold prices. Coking and steel enterprises have low raw material inventories and still have restocking needs. The third round of coke price increases has started, driving up the quotes of many coal types. Online auctions have performed well with a high transaction rate. Considering the continuous tight supply of coal mines and the active transportation by downstream users, the overall market supply is still tight, and coal enterprises are still bullish on the future market [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1,390, and the basis is 104. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 781.1 tons, port inventory is 295 tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 819.3 tons. The total sample inventory is 1,895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net long, but the long position has decreased [3]. - **Positive Factors**: Pig iron production has increased, and it is difficult for supply to increase [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Coking and steel enterprises have slowed down their procurement of raw material coal, and steel prices are weak [5]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After two consecutive rounds of coke price increases, the loss situation of coking enterprises has improved. However, due to the continuous rise in raw material coal prices, the production increase space of coking enterprises is restricted, and the coking enterprise production level remains low, with the coke supply continuing to be tight [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1,710, and the basis is - 67. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 650.8 tons, port inventory is 195.1 tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 42.5 tons. The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position has increased [8]. - **Positive Factors**: Pig iron production has increased, and the blast furnace operating rate has increased simultaneously [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margin of steel mills has been squeezed, and part of the restocking demand has been overdrawn [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week. Coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week. Coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [24]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week. Coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-3 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：供给低位企稳回升，但沙河地区"煤改气"等供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单 整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱，库存高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1048元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1083元/吨，基差为-35元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6579万重量箱，较前一周减少1.24%，库存在5年均值上方运行； 偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 早评 期指 1、基本面：中美领导人会晤，达成较大共识短期利好落地，权重指数回落调整，双创领跌，消费医 药板块反弹，市场风格有所改变；偏空 IC2512贴水88.6点，IM2512贴水138.47点，偏空 期债 股指期货早报- 2025年11月3日 2、资金：融资余额24811亿元，减少74亿元；偏空 3、基差：IH2512升水3.65点，IF2512贴水9.27点，中性 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、 收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期货市场-上证50基差与价差 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2021/11/10 2021/12/21 2022/2/8 2022/3/18 2022/5/5 2022/6/16 2022/7/27 2022/9/6 2022/10/25 2022/ ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report - November 3, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Dushufang from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bond market sentiment is warm, with long - term bonds performing better. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.42%. The 10 - month PMI data led to higher expectations of policy easing in Q4, boosting bond market buying. There is a certain safety cushion for entering the bond market now. The overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions rose slightly and stabilized around 1.31%. The yields of secondary perpetual bonds declined by more than 2bp [3]. - On October 31, the People's Bank of China conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 168 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on that day, the net investment was 187.1 billion yuan [3]. Basis Analysis - TS main basis is - 0.0487, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. TF main basis is - 0.06167, also bearish. T main basis is 0.1238, indicating the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. TL main basis is - 0.0061, bearish [3]. Inventory Analysis - The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1359.4 billion, 1493.5 billion, and 2359.9 billion respectively, considered neutral [4]. Disk Analysis - TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. Main Position Analysis - TS main contract has a net long position with an increase in long positions. TF main contract also has a net long position with an increase in long positions. T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5]. Expectation Analysis - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for 8 consecutive months. The October PMI data is below the boom - bust line. In September, CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, while core CPI's year - on - year increase has expanded for 5 consecutive months. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October FOMC meeting [5]. Group 3: Market Quotes - T2512.CFE: Price is 108.680, up 0.04%, trading volume is 66178, open interest is 242555, with a daily decrease of 2555, and the CTD bond is 220019.IB [8]. - TF2512.CFE: Price is 106.065, down 0.01%, trading volume is 51145, open interest is 149424, with a daily increase of 155, and the CTD bond is 250003.IB [8]. - TS2512.CFE: Price is 102.544, down 0.02%, trading volume is 30841, open interest is 72375, with a daily decrease of 1166, and the CTD bond is 250012.IB [8]. - TL2512.CFE: Price is 116.68, up 0.42%, trading volume is 103750, open interest is 142750, with a daily decrease of 1328, and the CTD bond is 210005.IB [8].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by factors such as the rebound of crude oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations, while facing challenges like weak demand and new production capacity in the fourth quarter. For PP, similar factors are at play, with downstream peak - season demand providing some support [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the cost of polyolefins. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30, the US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation measures in the maritime and logistics sectors for one year, while China adjusted counter - measures accordingly. In late October, the sanctions on Russian oil by the US and Europe were upgraded, leading to a rebound in oil prices. The peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, with high - level operations, and the restocking of other films is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6970 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 466,000 tons (-99,000), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, influenced by the Sino - US meeting in Busan, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the continued peak - season demand for agricultural films, and the neutral industrial inventory [4] - **Leveraging Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The long - term "increasing supply and decreasing demand" pattern in crude oil persists, with limited cost support for polyolefins. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant policies were adjusted, and the sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 595,000 tons (-43,000), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, affected by the Sino - US meeting, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the downstream peak - season demand support, and the relatively high - level neutral industrial inventory [6] - **Leveraging Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6970 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6899 (-69), the basis is 71, the import price in US dollars is 813 (0), the import - converted price is 7107 (12), and the import price difference is - 137 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts is 12,706 (-39) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6630 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6590 (-61), the basis is 40, the import price in US dollars is 790 (0), the import - converted price is 6910 (11), and the import price difference is - 280 (-11). The number of warehouse receipts is 14,569 (0) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth trends. The production capacity has increased year by year, with a capacity growth rate of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has gradually decreased, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity has been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 11.0% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [15]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-11-03投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8322，基差104，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：7900-8300附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The UR2601 contract basis is -45, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6 million tons), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, still bearish. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - Bullish factors include strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, and comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the domestic market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract basis is -45, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6 million tons), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, still bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume is increasing. However, the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1580 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1625 | -2 | Warehouse Receipt | 1455 | -1515 | | Shandong Spot | 1590 | -10 | Basis | -45 | 2 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 166.4 million tons | -17.6 million tons | | Henan Spot | 1580 | 0 | UR01 | 1625 | -2 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 155.4 million tons | -7.6 million tons | | FOB China | 2666 | | UR05 | 1703 | -2 | UR Port Inventory | 11.0 million tons | -10.0 million tons | | | | | UR09 | 1736 | 1 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]