1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market shows a bearish trend fundamentally, with negative factors such as overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels, slow inventory consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [5][11][13]. - The supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4867 - 4925 [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - On September 29, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -116 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [11]. - Factory inventory was 31.8237 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous period, and social inventory was 53.47 tons, a 0.01% increase from the previous period. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.3 days, a 2.91% increase from the previous period, which is bearish [11]. - The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, which is neutral [11]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [11]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% increase from the previous month. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.97%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 337,665 tons, a 2.76% increase from the previous period, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 140,610 tons, a 6.27% increase from the previous period. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 47.76%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 38.91%, a 0.52 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.43%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 63.93%, a 12.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 80.31%, a 0.71 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was -783.9115 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 19.20% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was -645.3653 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 1.00% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2329.25 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, the cost of the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is weakening [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, price changes, inventory, operating rates, and profits of different types of PVC products and enterprises [17]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [20][23][26]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals Calcium Carbide Method - Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [29][32][34][35]. Supply - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production [40][41][43]. Demand - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [45][47][49][55][58]. Inventory - Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory of PVC [60]. Ethylene Method - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences in the ethylene method [62]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025 [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract shows a volatile pattern, with fluctuating crude oil prices, a peak season for agricultural film demand but still weaker than previous years, and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the main - contract is also volatile, with fluctuating crude oil prices, increasing demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export value in August was $321.81 billion, a 4.4% year - on - year increase but a decline from July. The crude oil price has been fluctuating recently. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7160 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 21, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - economic indicators. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increasing demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 123, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.8%, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (- 30,000 tons), which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7160 (+10), the 01 - contract price is 7181 (+22), the basis is - 21 (- 12), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 525,000 tons (- 10,000 tons) [9]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+0), the 01 - contract price is 6903 (+10), the basis is - 123 (- 10), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons (0), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (0) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in the growth rate. The import dependence has also gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].

Report Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rose to 49.4%, showing an improved business climate compared to the previous month. The basis is neutral with the spot price at 82,215 and a basis of 40, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is neutral with a decrease in copper inventory on September 29 and a decrease in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20-day moving average which is moving upwards, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September [2]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals, basis, and inventory of copper are neutral, while the market trend and main positions are bullish. Copper prices are expected to maintain strength [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific利多and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the middle price, changes, and inventory details such as types, total amounts, and changes, is presented, but specific data is not fully provided in the given context [6]. 期现价差 - Not elaborated in the provided content. Exchange Inventory - Information on exchange inventory is mentioned, but specific details are not fully given [11]. 保税区库存 - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not elaborated in the provided content. Supply - Demand Balance - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall situation is bearish, with the price fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average in the range of 120,000 - 123,800. Traders should control their positions before the holiday [2]. - **不锈钢**: The situation is neutral, with the price broadly fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data - **镍 and Stainless Steel Price**: On September 29, the Shanghai nickel主力 contract closed at 121,100, down 280 from September 26; the London nickel price was 15,325, up 170. The stainless steel主力 contract was 12,760, down 80. Spot prices of various nickel and stainless - steel products showed little change [12]. - **基差**: The Shanghai nickel spot price was 122,000, with a basis of 900; the average stainless - steel price was 13,962.5, with a basis of 1,202.5 [2][4]. 2. Inventory Data - **镍 Inventory**: As of September 29, LME nickel inventory was 231,312 (up 1,188), and Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 25,057 (down 96) [2]. - **不锈钢 Inventory**: As of September 29, stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 87,148 (down 357). On September 26, the national stainless - steel inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 5,400 tons [4][19][20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **镍 Fundamental**: The nickel ore price is firm, and due to the typhoon, mine loading and shipping may be delayed. The nickel - iron price is stable, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The production and sales data of new - energy vehicles are good, but the loading of ternary batteries is still decreasing, with limited boost to nickel demand. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [2]. - **不锈钢 Fundamental**: The spot stainless - steel price is flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price, shipping freight, and nickel - iron price are all stable, and the cost line is firm. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down [4]. 4. Market Outlook - **镍 Outlook**: The Shanghai nickel 2511 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, operating in the range of 120,000 - 123,800 [2]. - **不锈钢 Outlook**: The stainless - steel 2511 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 5. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There are expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and a cost support line at 120,000 [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The loading volume of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Morning Report - September 30, 2025 [1] - Author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Due to concerns about the US government shutdown, gold and silver prices have risen. Gold prices reached a new high, and silver prices continued to rise significantly. Overall, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but investors are advised to hold light positions during holidays [4][6] - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to decline, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices [10][13] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - US government shutdown concerns pushed up gold and silver prices. US and European stock indexes closed slightly higher, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar [4][6] - COMEX gold futures rose 1.42% to $3,862.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.97% to $47.11 per ounce [4][6] 2. Daily Tips - Today, focus on China's September PMI, the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes, US August job openings, and intensive speeches by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank members [4] - Although precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, due to the many events during the holiday and the continued concerns about the US government shutdown, investors are advised to hold light positions [4][6] 3. Today's Focus - A series of economic data and central bank events are scheduled for today, including Japan's economic data, China's PMI data, Australia's central bank policy rate decision, and speeches by central bank officials from the US, Europe, and the UK [15] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is -4.62, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,802 kilograms to 68,628 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased, which is bullish [5] - **Silver**: The basis is -59, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is neutral; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 31,382 kilograms to 1,189,648 kilograms, which is neutral; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, and the main long positions increased, which is bullish [6] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.48% on September 29 compared to September 28, the short positions decreased by 4.39%, and the net position increased by 1.67%. Compared with September 26, the long positions decreased by 10.43%, the short positions decreased by 8.40%, and the net position decreased by 16.77% [30][31] - **Silver**: Not detailed in the position change data, but the main net position is long and the main long positions increased [6] - **SPDR Gold ETF**: The ETF holdings continued to increase [34] - **Silver ETF**: The ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Zinc futures decline in a volatile manner, closing with a negative candlestick. Trading volume increased, and both long and short positions added, with more short positions. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term. The price closed below the long - term moving average, with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and operated in the weak zone, while the trend indicator showed that the long - side strength decreased and the short - side strength increased, with the short - side advantage expanding. The recommendation is that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 will move weakly in a volatile pattern [2][19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, indicating a bullish situation [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 21,670, with a basis of - 130, indicating a bearish situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On September 29, LME zinc inventory decreased by 825 tons to 41,950 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,691 tons to 59,264 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On September 29, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 695,182 lots, with a turnover of 3.06335844 billion yuan, and an open interest of 251,024 lots, an increase of 20,743 lots [3]. 5. Domestic Spot Market Quotes - On September 29, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market generally declined. For example, the price of zinc concentrate was 16,380 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots was 21,670 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From September 18 to September 29, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 148,300 tons to 128,400 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared to September 22 and 7,000 tons compared to September 25 [5]. 7. Zinc Warrant Report - On September 29, the total zinc warrants on the futures exchange were 59,264 tons, an increase of 1,691 tons. Different regions had different changes in warrants, such as an increase of 400 tons in Shanghai, 2,839 tons in Guangdong, and a decrease of 1,548 tons in Tianjin [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On September 29, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 825 tons, with different situations in various warehouses [7]. 9. Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 29, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities all decreased by 250 yuan/ton [8]. 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 29, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters decreased by 320 yuan/ton [12]. 11. Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and a 2.63% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 29, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions had different price ranges and changes, with import processing fees at 105 US dollars/dry ton for 48% - grade [16]. 13. Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2511 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on September 29, the total trading volume of members was 283,338 lots, an increase of 86,084 lots; the total long positions were 97,241 lots, an increase of 10,324 lots; the total short positions were 97,542 lots, an increase of 11,277 lots [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 利多：前期中美互加关税减少，商业库存同比降低。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 利空：贸易谈判继续进行，目前对美出口关税偏高。总 体外贸订单下降，库存增加。新棉即将大量上市。金九 消费不旺。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：全国棉花产量预计722万吨，新疆再创新高。ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万 吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存 1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿美元，同比下降5%。8月份我国棉花进口7万 吨，同比减少51.6%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the spot price at 1740 (+10). The UR2601 contract has a basis of 76 and a premium - discount ratio of 4.4%. The overall inventory is at a high level, with the UR comprehensive inventory at 152.5 million tons (+10.4). The main contract's 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it. The main position is net long but reducing long positions. International urea prices are strong, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected. It is expected that the UR contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. - The bullish factor is the strong international price, while the bearish factors are the high production rate and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer industry's operating rate is at a medium level, the melamine industry's operating rate has significantly declined, and agricultural demand is weak. China's overall urea supply exceeds demand, and although the theoretical export profit has reached a new high, the export volume has decreased due to policies [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract has a basis of 76 and a premium - discount ratio of 4.4%, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 152.5 million tons (+10.4), indicating a bearish situation [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of UR is net long, but the long positions are being reduced, which is a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to be volatile. With strong international urea prices and no more liberal export policies than expected, and a significant domestic supply - demand imbalance, the UR contract is expected to be volatile today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown an overall upward trend. The import dependence on PP has generally decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023, and then increased slightly to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For PTA, the futures markets fluctuated and closed lower, with the spot market showing average negotiation atmosphere and little change in spot basis. The market expects the basis to have limited upside potential, and the absolute price to fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Before the holiday, the intention of traders to hold goods was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2. Daily Hints - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: Futures fluctuated and closed lower, spot negotiation average, basis little change. 10 - mid contracts traded at a discount of around 55 to 01 contracts, price negotiation range 4570 - 4610. Mainstream spot basis is 01 - 55 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4590, 01 contract basis is - 62, neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period, bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short, short positions increasing, bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Futures prices rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA devices reduced production or shut down due to typhoons, and downstream polyester sales improved significantly, with the spot basis strengthening slightly. However, the market expectation is still bearish, and the basis is expected to have limited upside potential [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Spot transactions were mainly at a premium of 63 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the trading was weak. Traders' intention to hold goods before the holiday was not high [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4295, 01 contract basis is 71, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period, bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: Main net short, short positions decreasing, bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved significantly last week, and the product inventory of polyester factories decreased significantly. Before the holiday, the intention to hold ethylene glycol in the market was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation will turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Bullish Factors**: - Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 607,000 barrels, which was in contrast to analysts' forecast of an increase of 235,000 barrels [8]. - As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has some expectations for the start of demand [9]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to resume production in November [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [11]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents data from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows data from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol production, import, consumption, and port inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [13]. - **Price - related Data**: - **Bottle Chip Spot Price**: Shows the price trends of PET bottle chips in the East China market from 2020 to 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Bottle Chip Production Gross Margin**: Displays the production gross margin trends of bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - **Bottle Chip Capacity Utilization Rate**: Presents the capacity utilization rate trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2024 [23][24]. - **PTA Spread and Basis**: Includes TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1 spreads and PTA basis trends from 2019 to 2025 [25][26][27][29][30][31]. - **MEG Spread and Basis**: Covers EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1 spreads and MEG basis trends from 2021 to 2025 [32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. - **Spot Spread**: Displays TA - EG spot spread and paraxylene processing spread trends from 2021 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **PTA Inventory**: Shows the trends of PTA factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **MEG Inventory**: Presents the trends of MEG port inventory in East China from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **PET Chip Inventory**: Displays the trends of PET chip factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Polyester Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, DTY, FDY, and POY from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50][51]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: - **Upstream Operating Rates**: Include the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [52][53][54][55]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Comprise the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [56][57][58][59]. - **Profit - related Data**: - **PTA Processing Fee**: Shows the PTA processing fee trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61]. - **MEG Profit**: Presents the profit trends of different MEG production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Polyester Fiber Profit**: Displays the profit trends of polyester staple fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [65][66][67][68][69].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Sugar Morning Report - September 30, 2025 - **Report Author**: Wang Mingwei from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures - **Contact Information**: 0575 - 85226759 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall situation of the sugar market is complex, with both positive and negative factors. The market is affected by global supply - demand changes, domestic consumption, and weather conditions. Near the National Day holiday, due to high uncertainty, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market [4][5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: StoneX expects a 277 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, while ISO expects a 231,000 - ton supply gap, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. In July, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. This is a bearish factor [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5890, with a basis of 411 (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over the futures, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a neutral factor [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, a bearish factor [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a decrease in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, a bearish factor [5]. - **Expectation**: Typhoons have recently affected sugarcane - growing areas in southern Guangxi. Strong winds can cause sugarcane to lodge, and heavy rainfall can lead to waterlogging in sugarcane fields. Future attention should be paid to potential production cuts. With the approaching National Day holiday, there are many uncertainties, so it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Positive Factors**: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose [6]. - **Negative Factors**: An increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new global sugar supply, the international sugar price fluctuating around 16 cents per pound, an open import profit window, and increased import pressure [6]. - **Supply - Demand Forecast by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expects a 231,000 - ton supply gap, StoneX expects a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow expects a 6.2 - million - ton surplus, and Datagro expects a 1.53 - million - ton surplus [4][8][35]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.