交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-30 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修高位，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1148元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1228元/吨，基差为-80元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5935.50万重量箱，较前一周减少2.55%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1293 yuan/ton to 1278 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1200 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% - The main basis decreased from - 93 yuan/ton to - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.38% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13] - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 115.50 yuan/ton, and the production profit has rebounded from a historical low [16] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.12% [19] - The weekly output of soda ash is 77.69 tons, including 43.01 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [22] - From 2023 to 2025, there are large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons and an actual new capacity of 920 tons [23] 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 113.40% [26] - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable [29] - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline [2] 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 165.15 tons, a decrease of 5.93% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash has changed over the years. In 2024E, the supply - demand difference is 157 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 17.59%, a production growth rate of 13.07%, an apparent supply growth rate of 11.69%, and a total demand growth rate of 7.10% [37] 6. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be positive**: The peak maintenance period is coming this year, and the output is expected to decline [3] - **Likely to be negative**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. The market focuses on the impact of US soybean growing weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. The US soybean market is affected by the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the weather in the new US soybean production areas, with uncertainties remaining. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by factors such as the arrival of imported soybeans and the demand for soybean meal [10][14][15]. - The soybean market is also in a volatile situation. The domestic soybean price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but is suppressed by factors such as the abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The market also focuses on US soybean weather and Sino - US trade tariffs [15]. - The situation in the pig - breeding industry shows that the recent breeding profit has turned poor, with an increase in short - term supply and a weak downstream replenishment enthusiasm. The demand for soybean meal in October needs attention, and the price is mainly determined by the supply side [56]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Prompt No relevant information provided. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is waiting for further guidance on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in September. The soybean meal inventory in oil mills entered a relatively high level in September. The September USDA report had a relatively neutral impact, and the domestic soybean meal market returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal** - Bullish factors: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean production areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in September, and the abundant harvest of South American soybeans is expected to continue [14]. - **Soybeans** - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - Bearish factors: The abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the soybean price [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in some US soybean production areas is currently normal, with a neutral impact. In the short - term, the weather in US soybean production areas is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish outlook [9]. - **Import Cost**: US soybeans are in a volatile state. The Sino - US tariff negotiations and the weather of US soybeans are still uncertain, with a bullish impact. The import cost is expected to be volatile and weak, with a neutral or bearish outlook [9]. - **Oil Mill Crushing**: The short - term demand for soybean meal is expected to be good, and the crushing volume of oil mills remains high, with a bearish impact. The demand is expected to pick up in the short - term, and the oil mill operation is expected to remain high, with a bearish outlook [9]. - **Trading Volume**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term procurement has increased, with a bullish impact. The market trading volume is expected to increase, with a neutral or bullish outlook [9]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills has returned to a medium - high level, with a bearish impact. The upstream operation remains high, and the oil mill inventory is expected to remain high, with a bearish outlook [9]. 3.5 Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main contract have increased, and funds have flowed in, which is bullish [10]. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies - **Soybean Meal** - Fundamental analysis: US soybeans are volatile and rising. The domestic soybean meal is volatile and falling, and may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions have increased [10]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 3100, and short - term range trading is recommended. For options, selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [17][19]. - **Soybeans** - Fundamental analysis: US soybeans are volatile and rising. The domestic soybean market is affected by factors such as the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, and is in a volatile state [11]. - Strategy: The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3800 and 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended. For options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [20]. 3.7 Market Structure of Meal Products - The soybean meal futures are volatile and falling, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot discount has narrowed slightly. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillates at a low level [59][61]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - **Soybeans** - The soybean futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show a short - term technical rebound, but the upward space is limited, and the market is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern, waiting for new guidance [67]. - **Soybean Meal** - The soybean meal futures are in a range - bound pattern after rebounding from the bottom, affected by the trend of US soybeans and rapeseed meal and the expected change in domestic demand. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show a short - term technical consolidation, and the market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for new guidance from the US soybean market and domestic factors [69]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the growing weather in US soybean production areas, the Sino - US trade relationship and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China. - Secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement. - Other important factors are macro - economic factors and conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Palestine - Israel conflicts [72][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 3420 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3450 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.88%. It is expected that the disk will have a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [5][102]. - Currently, the demand is lower than the historical average. It is predicted that the demand recovery will be limited next week, while the supply will increase, and the cost support will strengthen [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 239.8 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic asphalt sample production capacity was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises increased by 15.49% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment decreased by 14.02% month - on - month. It is expected that the supply pressure will decrease next week [5]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 40.1%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, remaining flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 was 31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57 percentage points [5]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 659.68 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 110.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%; the in - plant inventory was 65.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.50%. The social inventory continued to be destocked, the in - plant inventory continued to be stocked, and the port inventory continued to be destocked [6]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base - spread trend**: The report presents the base - spread trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China [9]. - **Spread analysis**: - **主力合约价差**: It shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts [12]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: Displays the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil [15]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: Presents the cracking spreads of asphalt with SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils [18]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, fuel oil price ratio trend**: Shows the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - It shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong [25]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt profit [27]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: Shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread [30]. - **Supply - side**: - **Shipment volume**: Presents the weekly shipment volume [33]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: Shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [35]. - **Output**: Displays the weekly and monthly output [38]. - **Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend**: Shows the price trend of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil [41]. - **Local refinery asphalt output**: Presents the output of local refinery asphalt [44]. - **开工率**: Displays the weekly开工率 [47]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: Shows the estimated maintenance loss volume trend [50]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: Presents the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) [53]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: Shows the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) [58]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: Displays the in - plant inventory inventory ratio [61]. - **Import - export situation**: Shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [64][67]. - **Demand - side**: - **Petroleum coke output**: Presents the petroleum coke output [70]. - **Apparent consumption**: Displays the apparent consumption [73]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: Shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [76]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: Displays the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume trends of domestic excavators, and the sales volume trends of road rollers [80]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: Displays the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 [85]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: Shows the construction asphalt开工率 and the modified asphalt开工率 [88]. - **Downstream开工率**: Displays the开工率 of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, etc. [91]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, social inventory, in - plant inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [96]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 11 - contract showed an upward trend. Based on the price and trading volume trends of the BU main contract, it is expected that next week, it may have a bullish oscillatory adjustment [100][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 4,955 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 4,897 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.17%. It is expected that next week's demand may remain sluggish, and with a decrease in expected maintenance and a slight increase in expected production scheduling, the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.97%, a month-on-month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 337,665 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.76%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 140,610 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.27%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [5]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 47.76%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.91%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 40.43%, a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 63.93%, a month-on-month decrease of 12.9 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 80.31%, a month-on-month increase of 7.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [5]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was -783.9115 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase in losses of 19.20%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was -645.3653 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease in losses of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. The double-ton spread was 2,329.25 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease in profit of 0.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 318,237 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.92%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,547 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.94%. Ethylene factory inventory was 67,690 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.81%. Social inventory was 534,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.01%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.3 days, a month-on-month increase of 2.91%. Overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [60].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, crude oil rebounded from a low level. Geopolitical tensions, supply - demand imbalances, and market sentiment all influenced the oil price. The supply gap of OPEC+ supported the oil price, while the increase in Iraqi oil export expectations and other factors brought downward pressure at times. The report suggests short - term trading within the 485 - 505 range and long - term investors to exit long positions on rallies [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - **Price Movement**: NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $65.19 per barrel, up 4.54% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $68.82 per barrel, up 4.19% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 495 yuan per barrel, up 1.64% for the week. Brent crude closed above $70 per barrel on Friday, with a weekly gain of 5.2%, and WTI was close to $66 per barrel [5]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Ukraine attacked Russian ports, paralyzing oil facilities with a daily export capacity of about 2 million barrels. Russia extended its export ban on some energy products. The US pressured Turkey and NATO members to stop buying Russian oil, and the UN may re - impose sanctions on Iran, tightening global supply [5][6]. - **Supply - related News**: Iraq reached an agreement for the central government to receive and export Kurdish - produced oil. OPEC+ has a supply gap of nearly 500,000 barrels per day, mainly due to compensatory cuts and shrinking idle capacity [5][6][7]. - **Fund Positions**: As of the week of September 23, Brent crude futures' speculative net long positions decreased by 11,592 contracts to 220,579 contracts, while WTI crude net long positions increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [5]. 3.2 Related News - Iraq's central government will take over the export of Kurdish - produced oil, aiming to solve the problem of lost fiscal revenue caused by the autonomous export of the Kurdish region [6]. - India asked the US to allow it to buy oil from Iran and Venezuela if it is required to cut Russian oil imports, warning that cutting off supplies from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela could lead to a global oil price spike [6]. 3.3 Outlook - The supply gap of OPEC+ supports the upward movement of oil prices. Saudi Arabia may increase sales to make up for potential revenue losses and prove that other OPEC+ members' idle capacity is lower than expected [7]. - There is a risk that the US government may shut down before the National Day holiday in the Chinese domestic market, and investors should control their positions [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties showed different changes. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.65 to 64.28, with a growth rate of 1.02% [11]. - **Inventory Data**: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory showed different trends over time. For example, the EIA inventory decreased by 60.7 million barrels to 414.754 million barrels on September 19 [13][14]. 3.5持仓数据 - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of WTI crude oil increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts as of September 23 [20]. - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of Brent crude oil decreased by 11,592 contracts to 220,579 contracts as of September 23 [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows mixed signals. Supply has increased slightly, while demand has picked up. Cost support is weakening, and inventory levels are high. The market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6]. - The polysilicon market is also facing a complex situation. Supply is relatively strong, and demand is weak. Cost support is stable, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a specific range [8]. - The main factors affecting the market include cost increases, production cuts by manufacturers, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and the oversupply of downstream polysilicon [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 93,000 tons, a 1.09% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Demand**: Demand was 86,000 tons, a 7.50% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, at a high level; organic silicon inventory was 73,200 tons, also at a high level; alloy ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,020 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On September 26, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 340 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Expected Trend**: The industrial silicon 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8,825 - 9,095 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the output of polysilicon was 31,100 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week increase. The estimated output in September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers is in a loss state. The production of battery cells is also in a loss state, while the production of components is profitable. The estimated output of components in September is 50.3 GW, a 2.3 GW increase from the previous month [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of polysilicon was 226,000 tons, a 10.78% week - on - week increase, at a high level [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,900 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On September 26, the price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,085 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Expected Trend**: The polysilicon 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,530 - 52,400 [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures contracts showed a downward trend, with price declines ranging from 0.63% - 1.22% [14]. - Spot prices remained stable, with no change in the prices of most types of silicon [14]. - Inventory levels were mixed. Social inventory remained unchanged at 543,000 tons, while sample enterprise inventory decreased by 7.12% to 162,500 tons [14]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures contracts generally showed an upward trend, with price increases ranging from 0.07% - 0.82% [16]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [16]. - The total weekly inventory of polysilicon increased by 10.78% to 226,000 tons [16]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China are presented in the historical data charts [18][19]. 5. Polysilicon Price Trends - The price trends of polysilicon main contracts and the basis trends are presented in the historical data charts [22][23]. 6. Industrial Silicon Inventory - The inventory levels of industrial silicon in different regions and ports are presented in the historical data charts, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipts [25]. 7. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production trends of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production trends by specification are presented in the historical data charts [26][27][28]. - The capacity utilization rate and the start - up rate of sample enterprises are also presented in the historical data charts [29][31]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are presented in the historical data charts [33][34]. 9. Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon are presented, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [35][36][38][39]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream Markets Organic Silicon - **DMC**: The production, capacity utilization, cost, profit, and price trends of DMC are presented in the historical data charts [41][42]. - **Downstream Products**: The price trends of downstream organic silicon products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are presented in the historical data charts [43][44][45]. - **Inventory and Trade**: The import, export, and inventory trends of DMC are presented in the historical data charts [48][49]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply**: The price trends of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, the cost - profit trends of imported ADC12, and the supply - related data such as scrap aluminum recycling, imports of aluminum scrap, and China's unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation are presented in the historical data charts [51][52]. - **Inventory and Production**: The monthly production trends of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the start - up rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots are presented in the historical data charts [54][55]. - **Demand**: The monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trends of aluminum alloy wheels are presented in the historical data charts [56]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The cost, price, production, and demand trends of polysilicon are presented in the historical data charts [59][60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of polysilicon is presented, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance data [62][63]. - **Silicon Wafers**: The price, production, inventory, demand, and net export trends of silicon wafers are presented in the historical data charts [65][66]. - **Battery Cells**: The price, production, inventory, and export trends of battery cells are presented in the historical data charts [68][69]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: The price, production, inventory, and export trends of photovoltaic components are presented in the historical data charts [71][72]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The price, production, import, and export trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic films, photovoltaic glass, and high - purity quartz sand are presented in the historical data charts [74][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 74,580 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 72,880 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.20%. It is expected that next week, the supply side will reduce production, the demand side will continue to increase, and the cost will remain low. The futures market may have a bull - biased volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: The 11 - contract of lithium carbonate declined this week, with the opening price on Monday at 74,580 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 72,880 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.20% [4]. - **Supply Side**: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 12,989 tons, a 0.93% increase; lithium mica production was 2,840 tons, a 0.69% decrease; salt lake production was 2,763 tons, a 0.66% increase; recycling production was 1,924 tons, a 1.85% increase [4]. - **Demand Side**: In August 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 104,023 physical tons, an 8.25% increase. The predicted demand for next month is 109,470 physical tons, a 5.24% increase. The export volume in August was 369 physical tons, a 0.82% increase, and the predicted export volume for next month is 410 physical tons, an 11.11% increase. The production and installation of power batteries, the production of energy - storage batteries, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles all showed growth trends, which supported the demand for lithium carbonate [5][6]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,418 yuan/ton, a 0.12% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,888 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a loss of 8,189 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The smelter inventory was 33,492 tons, a 2.79% decrease; the downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a 2.35% increase; other inventories were 42,440 tons, a 2.61% decrease; the total inventory was 136,825 tons, a 0.51% decrease [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Market - related Data**: The report presents the price trends of lithium carbonate, including the main contract price, battery - grade price, and basis. It also shows the production, import, export, and inventory data of lithium ores, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, as well as their supply - demand balance sheets [12][15][18][27][32]. - **Cost - profit Analysis**: It analyzes the cost - profit situations of various lithium compounds, such as the cost - profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials, the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and export [35][37][40]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - The main 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week. By analyzing the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages of the LC main contract, it is predicted that the futures market may have a bull - biased volatile adjustment next week [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [13]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [14]. - **PVC2601 Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4867 - 4927 [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [13]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Fundamentals - **Supply**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.97%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 337,665 tons, a 2.76% increase, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 140,610 tons, a 6.27% increase. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 47.76%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.91%, a 0.52 - percentage - point decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 40.43%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 63.93%, a 12.9 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 80.31%, a 0.71 - percentage - point increase, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC exports are affected [7]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 783.9115 yuan/ton, with a 19.20% increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 645.3653 yuan/ton, with a 1.00% decrease in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2329.25 yuan/ton, with no change in profit, lower than the historical average, and scheduled production may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.2 Basis - On September 26, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 117 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is negative [9]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Factory inventory was 318,237 tons, a 3.92% increase. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 250,547 tons, a 3.94% increase, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 67,690 tons, a 3.81% increase. Social inventory was 534,700 tons, a 0.01% increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.3 days, a 2.91% increase, which is negative [9]. 3.2.4 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, which is negative [9]. 3.2.5 Main Position - The main position is net short, and short positions increased, which is negative [9]. 3.2.6 Expectation - Calcium carbide - based costs weakened, ethylene - based costs strengthened, and overall costs weakened. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 3.50%. It is expected that next week, the supply side's production schedule will increase, the demand recovery will be at a low level, and the cost support will rise. The disk is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 11 - contract also declined this week, with a weekly decline of 2.75%. It is predicted that the supply - side production schedule will decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable, and the disk is expected to have a neutral sideways adjustment [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 93,000 tons, a 1.09% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,310 tons, remaining unchanged. The expected monthly start - up rate is 59.19%, a 3.32 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 86,000 tons, a 7.50% increase. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory is 226,000 tons; in the organic silicon sector, the inventory is 73,200 tons, and the production profit is - 708 yuan/ton; in the aluminum alloy sector, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 72,000 tons [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3,020 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 543,000 tons, remaining unchanged; the sample enterprise inventory is 162,500 tons, a 7.11% decrease; the main port inventory is 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,100 tons, a 0.32% increase. The predicted production schedule for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from last month [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW, a 1.00% decrease; the battery cell production is in a loss state, and the component production is profitable. The production schedules for September of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are expected to increase [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,400 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 226,000 tons, a 10.78% increase, at a historically high level [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report presents the trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [14][15]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and SMM sample enterprises, as well as the registered warehouse receipt volume [18]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises, the monthly production by specification, and the start - up rate trends [20][21][22]. - **Cost**: It includes the electricity price trends in main production areas, the silicon stone price trends in main production places, the graphite electrode price trends, and the price trends of some reducing agents [25]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Both the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [29][32]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc. [34][36][41]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It examines the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (in the automotive and wheel hub sectors) trends of aluminum alloy [44][47][49]. - **Polysilicon**: It studies the cost, price, inventory, production, supply - demand balance, and the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation related to polysilicon [52][55][58][61][64][67][70][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish sideways adjustment next week [75][77]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract declined, and it is predicted to have a narrow - range sideways adjustment next week [78][79].